Two new federal poll results to relate:
• New-ish polling outfit DemosAU has published what I believe to be its first national federal voting intention result, recording a 50-50 split on two-party preferred from primary votes of Labor 32%, Coalition 38%, Greens 12% and One Nation 7%. The full report for the poll, which was conducted last Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1038, features breakdowns by gender, age, education, residential tenure and personal income.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor recovering a 51-49 lead on the headline two-party measure, reversing last week’s result, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up two-and-a-half), Coalition 37% (down two), Greens 12.5% (down one) and One Nation 6.5% (steady). The two-party measure based on preference flows from 2022 has Labor leading 51.5-48.5, after a dead heat last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1663.
UPDATE (YouGov): And now a third. YouGov, which has typically reported on Fridays, has its first federal poll since September, showing a dead heat on two-party preferred, unchanged on last time. The primary votes are Labor 30% (steady), Coalition 38% (down one), Greens 13% (down one) and One Nation 9% (up two). Anthony Albanese is steady at 36% approval and down two on disapproval to 56%, while Peter Dutton is steady at 40% and down two to 48%. Albanese holds an unchanged 42-39 lead as preferred prime minister. The poll was conducted last Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1515.
steve davis @ #2593 Sunday, December 1st, 2024 – 8:59 pm
As we’ve seen in the US nothing beats cost of living anxiety overnight like a change of government.
The same will happen here.
Boerwar @ #2586 Sunday, December 1st, 2024 – 8:50 pm
I saw it when I was there this year. Horrifying.
steve davissays:
Sunday, December 1, 2024 at 9:03 pm
Paul A
I see PB after dark has arrived. You’re just a Conservative wally that believes everything that comes out of a Liberals mouth.
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And Steve I think repeats of playschool finished up on ABC ME a couple of hours ago.
Labor patsy.
I do know one thing Liberals don’t give 2 hoots about the homeless , low income welfare recipients, Medicare , superannuation and the disabled. All they are bothered about is the rich and richer. The Ginas of society are their favourite people for handouts and tax breaks.
mjsays:
Sunday, December 1, 2024 at 9:07 pm
Of course there is a cost of living crisis, that’s what happens when interest rates, rental costs, inflation and costs of goods of services all combine to put increasing pressure on people, how much more obvious can it get? Yet Albo and crew think hmm top priority in this term is a Voice to parliament that few really care about – seemingly as out of touch as Steve Davis.
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mj – Ignore him. He has very little to offer except to slag off posters. he’s a troll. Ignore him
“As we’ve seen in the US nothing beats cost of living anxiety overnight like a change of government.
The same will happen here.”
Of course it will. Too many are easily conned.
paul A @ #2603 Sunday, December 1st, 2024 – 9:12 pm
I can’t decide if you’re a Liberal thug (don’t worry I’ve come face to face with your kind), or a Liberal flog…who thinks they can come here and own the libs with the hoped for aim of someone at Liberal Thug HQ noticing you and offering you a job as an enforcer.
Either way, you don’t impress me and don’t think you’ll ever intimidate me.
paul A @ #2606 Sunday, December 1st, 2024 – 9:14 pm
Ah, the Liberal Right attempting to co-opt the Green Left to get into bed together. Thank goodness the parliamentary wing of The Greens realised that they had been Tricked by the Coalition. 😐
Rossmcg:
I don’t listen to the ABC, but I hear the outrage from my Boomer mother who is practically certifiable at the sackings. She carries on as if this is a kind of McCarthyist purge at the ABC when of course nothing could be further from the truth.
If we do get a Newspoll, this usually covers the period Weds to Sat, so should cover the bulk of last weeks proceedings. ie: the first poll post Albo’s “senate success”.
Gosh, we can’t keep doing this every 3-4 weeks.
I suspect Williams encouraged Philip Adams to leave or Adams realised the gig was up – they have had a very difficult relationship since being at the film commission in the 80s
No Newspoll. Bugger.
Getting tired of Roy Morgan
nadia88 @ #2613 Sunday, December 1st, 2024 – 9:31 pm
Does Ghost Who Votes still do the Newspoll numbers on Xitter?
Oh well, no Nesspoll I’m heading off as the graveyard shift clocks on.
Night all.
I’m guessing that an 8th December poll would be a better date for an end-of-year poll compared to a 1st December one.
steve davis says:
Sunday, December 1, 2024 at 9:12 pm
I do know one thing Liberals don’t give 2 hoots about the homeless , low income welfare recipients, Medicare , superannuation and the disabled.
*****************************
This is true. On this criteria, the Liberals get zero out of five.
But it is also true that Labor have been far from perfect. On the same criteria, I’d only give them three out of five.
If you’d added the environment to your list, then Labor would have sunk to three out of six.
If Labor get another term, and I hope they do, they need to do better.
C@t,
Usually HH gets the figures a couple of minutes before they update their site.
I see they’re running some story about an Albo v Tanya feud.
Just checking the bludgertrack tab, the last newspoll last year was around Dec.15.
Oh well, Roy Morgan tomorrow I suppose. That’s a bouncy poll but at least it’s something.
Was looking fwd to the first poll after last week’s sittings.
Evening all, and well done & played Lars.
This post brought to you by nadia88, PB commentator, somewhere in Australia.
Pocock will reveal any day now what Albo promised him two “significant”concessions.
Every time labor gets some breathing space something drags them down promptly.
Kirsdarke @ #2616 Sunday, December 1st, 2024 – 9:36 pm
Probably will release it with their Quarterly Update as well.
Economic growth figures out weds this week will be terrible sadly lowest outside of COVID’s since 1991 predicted.
pied piper
Dont lie with your “terribly sadly”shit . Its just what you want to justify your mate to be PM.
Bluesky is nice. I haven’t really gotten that much into it yet, as I don’t know where to begin again. Some of the annoying stuff from Twitter has migrated over. I saw one notable user brag about how it’s great because it’s like Twitter in 2019, which made me shudder because Twitter was a pretty toxic place in 2019, it’s just it became much more of a cesspool when Elon took over.
Still, I like that my feed isn’t full of MAGAbots, meme engagement farms and porn accounts. And, while I know the site is growing and a work in progress, I am not concerned the management is going to remove muting because one of them are upset because we don’t find his jokes funny.
pied pipersays:
Sunday, December 1, 2024 at 9:57 pm
Pocock will reveal any day now what Albo promised him two “significant”concessions.
_____________________
Keep an eye on it Pied, and let us all know when you hear something.
Wat Tyler @ #2625 Sunday, December 1st, 2024 – 10:12 pm
You can get lists of people to Block who have come over from Xitter to try and cause trouble.
Confessions linked to this guide today:
https://au.pcmag.com/social-media/108378/getting-started-on-bluesky-5-unique-features-to-check-out-right-away
I see Labor and Greens partisans still arguing about an EPA that didn’t have the numbers in the Senate…
I seen Labor and Greens partisans still arguing over an EPA that didn’t have the numbers in the Senate…
Well done Labor, Greens and cross bench for getting some work passed on housings, minimum tax rules and anti money laundering legislation (the Libs and property lobby were fighting hard on that last one).
And well done Labor and LNP for striking back against the global tech lords. If all come together and get serious on migration numbers it could be a decent end to the parliamentary term.
C@tmomma @ #2627 Sunday, December 1st, 2024 – 10:43 pm
In addition to that, you need to be aware of fake blocklists from MAGA sites like Kiwifarms that add popular anti-MAGA users to the lists.
https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueskySocial/comments/1gug1jm/kiwifarms_is_making_lookalike_blocklists_users/
Not so bothered by right wing trolls. They’re easy bugs to squash. It’s more the cliquey toxic shit that was annoying, especially among the trendy online left who spent that period being preoccupied with forever relitigating the 2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries and push some weird pseudo-historical take on Marxism. They’re not trolls, just annoying.
Anyway, if anyone wants to connect with me there, I can be found at: https://bsky.app/profile/careyrmoore.bsky.social
(Yes, that’s my real name I am using because I don’t care anymore.)
As I said, I haven’t done much with it yet but I hope to make that change. Of course, I don’t want to become hooked and terminally online.
Lars at 8.17 and 9.10 pm
“8- ukr war will end in a ceasefire in Dec 2024 based on current lines of control. TBC – SUCCESS – I claim this as a success although the exact date of a cease fire is yet to play out.”
A cease-fire is not demonstrated by diminished Western interest in Ukrainian suffering. Ukraine is still further away from a cease-fire than it was 32 months ago in early April 2022. For Zelenskyy’s view see:
https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-war-defense-russia-kyiv-moscow-budapest-journalists/
The gap between the Russian and Ukrainian positions is clear from this report on 20 Nov:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/20/russia-putin-ukraine-war-cease-fire-nato-us-embassy-atacms/
Self-assessment was not favoured even in the Department of Political Economy at USyd, which did serious research (e.g. Frank Stilwell’s books on inequality, plus Varoufakis & Joseph Halevi + others).
You cannot credibly claim 1/2 mark for this “no. 4 neither trump nor Biden will be elected president”.
So “obviously wrong” it is, sadly, for no. 4, and that looks like 5 and 1/2 out of 10, not 7 overall. A pass.
But there may be a technical protest with Q 9, because the details were known before 30 Dec 2023. See:
media.defense.gov/2023/Nov/14/2003340194/-1/-1/1/VIEW%20HAMMOND%20-%20JIPA.PDF
So a judge not operating in silly season mode might be reducing your score to 4 and 1/2 out of 10.
Please try for some challenging questions later this year. Q 10 (“lots more discussion about AUKUS but nothing of any substance”) could have got you an easy point for 2023 and 2024, so give it a break.
Note: your scoring system is simple enough for all to follow but you have missed the idea of a bonus point, to be gained by correctly predicting an unusual and significant event. E.g. if you had predicted that Labor will lose a reliable Senate vote that would be one point, with a bonus point for saying how.
I’m keeping an eye on this story for sure this week.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/dec/01/woolworths-to-reopen-distribution-centre-to-get-essential-items-on-shelves-amid-ongoing-strike
It will be very concerning if the reported 70% of the workforce would be willing to scab and cross the picket lines to return to work while the union is on strike.
New thread.