Two new federal poll results to relate:
• New-ish polling outfit DemosAU has published what I believe to be its first national federal voting intention result, recording a 50-50 split on two-party preferred from primary votes of Labor 32%, Coalition 38%, Greens 12% and One Nation 7%. The full report for the poll, which was conducted last Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1038, features breakdowns by gender, age, education, residential tenure and personal income.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor recovering a 51-49 lead on the headline two-party measure, reversing last week’s result, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up two-and-a-half), Coalition 37% (down two), Greens 12.5% (down one) and One Nation 6.5% (steady). The two-party measure based on preference flows from 2022 has Labor leading 51.5-48.5, after a dead heat last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1663.
UPDATE (YouGov): And now a third. YouGov, which has typically reported on Fridays, has its first federal poll since September, showing a dead heat on two-party preferred, unchanged on last time. The primary votes are Labor 30% (steady), Coalition 38% (down one), Greens 13% (down one) and One Nation 9% (up two). Anthony Albanese is steady at 36% approval and down two on disapproval to 56%, while Peter Dutton is steady at 40% and down two to 48%. Albanese holds an unchanged 42-39 lead as preferred prime minister. The poll was conducted last Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1515.
Starting to look like a change of government election in March.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2024/11/australias-worst-ever-hidden-recession/
LVT, I heard that a West Coast Eagles player held a football last week, clearly they’re premiership favourites next year.
In an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box” in September, Mr. Lutnick promoted Mr. Trump’s tariff plans as a way to help American workers, but he said tariffs should not be placed on “stuff we don’t make.” He also described tariffs as a “bargaining chip” that would ultimately force other countries to lower their own tariffs and lead to freer markets.
“Everybody else is going to negotiate with us,” he said.
True only in so far that the US is a massive consumer.. ( lots of fat people getting fatter).
I’m more optimistic .. the rest of the world is more caring & concerned for the planet & will tell the US to shove it.. the world buys little from the US an ever diminishing amount, if you exclude US carbon ( & arms) exports the USs trading position is grim?
60% tariffs on China.. sure, the Walmarts & Bezos will be ecstatic at that
But in 2018, Mr. Trump’s second year in office, his-pro tariff instincts roared back, enabled by others in the administration who supported them. He ultimately imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of imports…. So did these tariffs fuel inflation that came home to roost under Biden & resulted in Trump being re elected.. nuts if correct.
Conservatives fuck it all up, progressives clean up the mess while getting blamed for the neocon fuckup & get booted out.. rinse & repeat
http://ianmcauley.com/saturdays/sat241123/week24112305.html
“… “are you as well-off now as you were when you elected the Labor government?”. That line is given an easy run by journalists, including many in the ABC, who keep talking about a “cost of living crisis” – a frame that implies our lives took a terrible turn for the worse because we elected a Labor government. It’s an entirely inaccurate representation of our economic situation: we have deep-seated structural weaknesses, and a highly inequitable and demotivating distribution of income, wealth and opportunity. These have been in the making for at least the last 20 years. This outcome is not a “crisis” and it leaves most people relatively well-off.“
Anyway, doubt the opp would do better than the gov, though looking forward to more crossbenchers
Happy end of year holidays!
Sceptic
time after time ….
I am starting to think this is baked into the somewhat conservatively biased human psyche (around 52% conservative according to Cambridge Analytica), at least when it comes to foreign tribes (keep out migrants!!) and sharing of resources (I am not paying taxes to keep those bludgers!!).
On the other hand, Homo Sapiens Sapiens has also done well out of cooperation and community building – pooled childcare, food resources, caring for those within the tribe who needed it, and a big one, education.
So, maybe we expect that around 75% of the time in a democracy we get conservative governments who appeal to people’s wish to preserve resources for their family. But then, the electorate realises the cost of a withdrawal from community.
So, a progressive government is then given the reins of power for a short time, to reverse what they can of the selfish mindset.
And this may explain why, on this rare intervals when the progressive side has power, every man, woman, child, and their dog and cat, DEMAND that said short-lived progressive government fix everything! Right Now! Because it sure ain’t going to be fixed during the long, bleak reign of the tories.
Griff,
A new federal Progressive party to get your vote that isn’t Labor or The Greens?
The Animal Justice Party
Legalise Cannabis Party
The Whatever the name of the Science/Sex/Pirate Party is. Is that Reason?
A Teal???
Lars Von Trier @ #1 Tuesday, November 26th, 2024 – 5:37 am
And you base that ridiculous assertion on…?
The ALP Primary Vote going up?
Your Feels in your waters?
Your standard operating procedure of malign malevolence?
🙄
Trump gets away with his crimes.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/11/25/trump-cases-motion-to-dismiss-jack-smith/
From the NY Times. Trump has certainly done well for the Republican vote, increasing the diversity of its voters.
#weatheronPB
Thin, sparse, muddy clouds,
stream past a forgotten moon,
hurrying away.
This is a great comment about Trump 2.0:
Jerome
With the “defining deviance down” Trump 2.0 administration 6 weeks or so away from taking power, it is painfully obvious the Overton Window is now a Doggy Door.
That graph is being a bit tricky with the numbers, ‘Fess. The final column seems to me to be a % change but the other 2 are simply arithmetical. If you do an arithmetical calculation for the 3rd column it doesn’t look as bad. Sure, it’s not great but it doesn’t look as bad.
UK Cartoons and other miscellany
Patrick Blower #Benefits #Worklessness
Nicola Jennings #StormBert
Mac #StromBert #NetZero
Tom Gauld @NewScientist
Matt
Ben Jennings on UK Assisted Dying Bill
Andy Bunday #StormBert
Brighty
Morten Morland #StormBert
Christian Adams #StormBert
Chris Riddell
Harry Burton of the Irish Times
Martyn Turner
Peter Brookes
==========================================
Stolen from the internet
Massive and growing inequality in Australia is very much a crisis and ultimately it stems from the misguided neoliberal economic reforms of Hawke and Keating, two characters who are wrongly praised by technocratic elites as heroic visionaries. Labor deserves to reap what it sowed.
My friend and her autistic adolescent sleeping on a blow up mattress in my living room instead of her car definitely thinks it’s a crisis (not one affordable house in SEQ private market).
C@tmomma @ #13 Tuesday, November 26th, 2024 – 6:49 am
It’s pretty simple though. With Latinos Dems have gone from having a 39 point advantage in 2012 to a 10 point advantage in 2024. Black voters are still solidly Democrat, but you really can’t lose these numbers of voters and expect to win.
It took the LNP nine years to get the Australian economy in the predicament the current government is attempting to reform.
The adjustment of the right wing contortions of the political ballast has been difficult and made more difficult by the coalition of the unwilling to take responsibility.
The media coalition partners have, since day one of the Labor government, demanded Labor fix the LNP mismanagement and accept ownership of past LNP ills.
A disengaged lazy electorate doesn’t help the false narrative.
Dutton the alternative say nothing LNP poster boy offers nuclear. End of story.
Dutton was aware of the shenanigans regarding the last nine years of LNP
ineptitude and diversions.
So despite the false narrative, Albanese and Labor have fended off the disingenuous and false LNP narrative, no better on display than by the resident LNP apologists on PB and despite many a prediction, the air has cleared and Labor are receiving the accolades well deserved.
The next three years of a Labor government will avert the catastrophic LNP lurch towards elitism, injustice and misinformation.
The last period of nine years of an obtuse LNP interpretation of democracy will require further restorative remediation.
Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are interviewing job candidates and seeking advice from experts in Washington and Silicon Valley — pushing a sweeping vision for the “Department of Government Efficiency” past the realm of memes and viral posts into potential real-world disruption.
Tapped by President-elect Donald Trump to lead an advisory panel to find “drastic” cuts to the federal government, the billionaire “DOGE” leaders have spent the past week in Washington and at Mar-a-Lago, seeking staff and interviewing seasoned Washington operators, legal specialists and top tech leaders, according to five people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to reflect private deliberations.
Both lobbied for Russell Vought, Trump’s pick to run the White House budget office, who is close with Ramaswamy, several people said. The men see Vought, who is enthusiastic about their arguments to rely on an expansive and boundary-pushing view of executive power to reform the government, as a key potential ally.
Top Musk surrogates from his business empire — including private equity executive Antonio Gracias and Boring Company President Steve Davis — are involved in planning, the people said, along with a coterie of Musk friends and Silicon Valley leaders, including Palantir co-founder and investor Joe Lonsdale, who funds a libertarian-leaning nonprofit dedicated to government efficiency; investor Marc Andreessen; hedge fund manager Bill Ackman; and former Uber chief executive Travis Kalanick. Ramaswamy, Musk and the Silicon Valley cohort plan to work on technical challenges to collecting data about federal employees and programs, which they believe is siloed in antiquated systems. Andreessen is acting as a key networker for talent recruitment, one person said. Those executives did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, Musk and Ramaswamy, a former GOP presidential candidate, outlined their vision for using executive powers and the legal system to push cuts to federal regulations, spending and personnel — a vision that they expect to be tested in court. The men also are launching a podcast, called “Dogecast.” And they backed a new House subcommittee aimed at supplementing their efforts in Congress, where some Republicans have enthusiastically welcomed their initiative.
“President Trump, Elon Musk, and Vivek Ramaswamy are at the forefront of a spending paradigm shift that is sidelining K Street and defense contractors, while empowering the average American,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a longtime proponent of cutting government spending, told The Washington Post. “I look forward to relentlessly fighting alongside them to deliver.”
Despite the flurry of activity, the effort is regarded as far-fetched by many budget and legal experts who for decades have seen similar efforts founder. In the op-ed published Wednesday, Musk and Ramaswamy said they plan to have Trump rescind “thousands” of government regulations, gut the federal workforce and slash hundreds of billions of dollars in federal spending, with or without congressional consent. It remains unclear how much the DOGE panel will cost or what its source of funding will be.
Even if it falls short of its goals, budget experts say the effort could prove hugely disruptive to workers and businesses that rely on certainty in federal regulation and spending.
Still, every step faces legal and practical roadblocks. Richard J. Pierce, a George Washington University professor who specializes in administrative law, said the Wall Street Journal piece shows Musk and Ramaswamy are “utterly ignorant” of the realities of federal law, which mandates strict procedures for repealing existing regulations.
“There is nothing in the statute that comes anywhere close to authorizing what they want to do, and no permission in the Constitution,” Pierce said. “I can’t even imagine what the argument would be beyond, ‘Gee, there are a lot of regulations, and we want to get rid of them.’”
Instead, the panel’s most immediate impact could be to demoralize the federal workforce and increase attrition, several critics said — an outcome that could hinder critical government functions such as approving permits for businesses.
“It could be a very chaotic situation if they try to mass-nullify regulations,” said Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. politics and policy at Wolfe Research, who advised the Obama administration. “Their ‘move fast and break things’ ethos suggests they’ll do something sweeping. But, to me, creating multiple years of legal limbo for many industries is not a great recipe for driving business investment.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/11/24/musk-ramaswamy-doge-trump/
@fess, non-white no degree collapse in dem support is particularly striking. A full fifth of dem voters in that demo appear to have shifted to trump.
Nicholassays:
Tuesday, November 26, 2024 at 6:50 am
Conveniently over looking nearly twelve years of Howard and the nine years of the Howard posse in which to behave like a responsible government and govern for all.
Everyone is over the “wasn’t Howard wonderful”
Howard was the luckiest PM in Australia and the most hypocritical.
The LNP were given 20 years to carry out repairs if in fact they were needed.
‘Fess,
Wait until Trump gets rid of Birthright Citizenship on Day 1 and starts deporting Hispanic and Muslim families, then we’ll have a look at those numbers.
C@t:
How’s this for irony?
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-11-25/are-california-farmers-on-collision-course-with-trump-deportation-plans
It is the case that Trump uses very basic words to speak to the Non College Educated voters and the Democrats have to find someone who can speak their language. I’d be looking for more John Fetterman types.
‘Fess,
I’ve heard that the leaders of those communities are already beating down Trump’s door to try and get him to spare them and their workers from his political pogrom. I know ‘pogrom’ means this:
A pogrom
is a violent riot incited with the aim of massacring or expelling an ethnic or religious group, particularly Jews.
Just leave off the Jewish bit.
Good morning all, thank you for the cartoons D&M.
If you take out the City the rest of GB has had hardly any growth for a long time.
The debt the Government took on to get GB through the GFC have never been paid off.
(Yes, despite what the far left ideologues would have us believe, government debt actually matters. As Victorian Labor is also about to discover.)
R&D investment has plummeted.
Private investment has been anaemic.
An ageing population is not helping.
Brexit has been the icing on the cake.
Muddling through the Imperial death throes has finally reached its use-by date.
Britain’s best strategic option is probably to swallow its pride and accept the 100 plus conditions that it could not bear to consider last time – and join NAFTA.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Shane Wright tells us that Jim Chalmers has revealed the budget bottom line is getting worse ahead of the looming federal election, with warnings he faces a $27 billion blowout over the next four years amid growing insecurity caused by the economic agenda of US President-elect Donald Trump. He writes that Deloitte Access Economics partner Cathryn Lee has said that while the government had saved much of the extra revenue it had collected in recent years, delivering back-to-back surpluses, the budget was struggling because both sides of politics going back many years had failed to implement policies that would stiffen the economy.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/27-billion-blowout-as-chalmers-admits-budget-sinking-further-into-red-20241125-p5ktav.html
Labor has gained a crucial concession from the Greens after a year of dispute over a $5.5 billion plan to help young Australians buy their first homes, securing the policy in the Senate but sparking furious claims that the delay harmed thousands of home buyers. In a stunning backdown, the Greens declared they would “wave through” the Help to Buy scheme to support home buyers and the Build to Rent policy to spur investment in new homes, despite holding out against them for most of this year. Grandstanding!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-gets-greens-to-cave-after-a-year-and-back-housing-bill-20241125-p5ktay.html
Anthony Albanese has unleashed a ferocious election campaign attack designed to simultaneously damage the Greens and dispel the entrenched belief that Labor is on a predetermined, power-sharing path to minority government with Adam Bandt next year, writes Dennis Shanahan. The PM describes the Greens as giving nothing, expecting everything.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary%2Fanthony-albanese-scores-housing-win-over-greens-as-he-seeks-to-avoid-election-result-he-dreads%2Fnews-story%2F4bc720c4a363a8b912bc805eb7b0e778?amp
Paul Karp says that Albanese has handed Chandler-Mather a political power lesson as Greens exhibit internal jitters.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/nov/26/albanese-chandler-mather-greens-analysis
The move to reform gambling advertising should have been socially responsive government at its finest. But Labor’s legislation appears to have fallen off the table as the Albanese government scrambles to pass, scrap or delay contentious bills during the sitting week of parliament for 2024, and potentially this term, says the SMH editorial which thinks Labor is taking a chance by delaying it.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-takes-a-chance-on-gambling-reform-delay-20241125-p5kt90.html
New government charges, reducing diplomatic staff and offloading Melbourne’s wholesale fruit and vegetable market have all been quietly canvassed by the state government as Treasurer Tim Pallas looks for ways to stop Victoria sliding deeper into debt. Ahead of the release of the Allan government’s mid-year financial report for the 2024-25 financial year, The Age has confirmed Treasury has considered a raft of measures to help offset an extra $1.5 billion promised to hospitals since May and further blowouts on the Metro Tunnel budget.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/strain-at-the-top-as-victoria-looks-for-ways-to-improve-battered-budget-20241125-p5ktcs.html
Meanwhile, the chairman of Melbourne-based biotech giant CSL, Brian McNamee, says leading fund managers have told him Victoria is currently uninvestable and warned the damage wrought by years of financial mismanagement by successive Labor governments will take at least a decade to fix.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/uninvestable-business-blasts-victoria-s-reckless-financial-state-20241125-p5kt9b
Phil Coorey reports that former top spy and senior diplomat Dennis Richardson has lambasted the federal opposition for criticising a deal to free the remaining members of the Bali Nine from an Indonesian prison, saying it lacked an understanding of the circumstances of their arrest.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/ignorant-former-spy-boss-hits-liberals-over-bali-nine-criticism-20241125-p5kt77
There are a lot of reasons for humility when thinking about what might happen to interest rates, and to the economy generally, but two stand out at the moment: Immigration and Donald Trump. Neither is remotely predictable, or very controllable, writes Michael Pascoe.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/11/25/alan-kohler-immigration-trump-rba-rate-cuts
Transport for NSW air-quality tests between 2016 and 2020 during metro construction showed the highest unprotected exposure to the deadly dust was 208 times above the workplace safety standard. Of 948 tests in the City and Southwest tunnels, workplace standards were breached in 34 per cent of cases, including 8 per cent in which workers were unprotected. Max Maddison reports that, despite the health implications, SafeWork NSW has blocked the release of further air-quality results in other tunnels, including the $25 billion Metro West, siding with companies concerned about reputational damage.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/revealed-the-sydney-tunnel-projects-where-deadly-dust-levels-hit-208-times-legal-limit-20241114-p5kqit.html
The ABC’s head of radio has moved to calm unrest and admonish “poor behaviour” within staff ranks as angry listeners flood the broadcaster with complaints about the surprise dumping of the Sydney station’s Mornings presenter Sarah Macdonald. Jordan Baker and Carrie Fellner write that amid speculation that former Q+A presenter Hamish Macdonald is the frontrunner to replace her, employees told the Herald about festering concern that the radio division’s new bosses, both from commercial music stations, misread the ABC audience.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/shame-abc-s-omg-moment-as-radio-boss-rushes-to-restore-calm-20241125-p5ktc3.html
Alan Austin says that Australia is setting impressive trade records which newsrooms refuse to report.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/australia-sets-impressive-trade-records-which-newsrooms-refuse-to-report,19202
Thousands of NSW households and businesses are facing a threat of rolling blackouts later this week even after the energy market operator called on the energy industry to cancel maintenance work amid a spate of unexpected outages at coal units and a blast of hot weather. Angela Macdonald-Smith writes that the squeeze over the next few days represents arguably the biggest test on the NSW power system since the closure of AGL Energy’s Liddell coal power station in April last year. It comes amid mounting unreliability of ageing coal power units as they near the end of their lives and are ramped up and down more often to fit alongside renewables.
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/nsw-power-squeeze-puts-market-operator-on-high-alert-20241125-p5kt7j
More from Macdonald-Smith who writes that Energy Minister Chris Bowen has tapped former AGL Energy executive Tim Nelson and three other industry specialists to review the National Energy Market with “nothing off the table”.
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/nothing-s-off-the-table-expert-panel-to-overhaul-electricity-market-20241125-p5ktai
Consumers with tight household budgets are using buy now, pay later services and redeeming loyalty rewards points to pay for everyday household items, a trend financial counsellors say risks pushing them towards spiralling debt. Jessica Yun says PayPal, Flybuys and Afterpay are seeing growing numbers paying for everyday expenses with financial products and rewards programs as households battle stubbornly high inflation, elevated interest rates and other cost-of-living pressures.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/more-consumers-using-buy-now-pay-later-and-loyalty-rewards-for-everyday-expenses-20241113-p5kqce.html
The lens through which Trump sees the world is narrow and focused tightly on whether a relationship directly benefits America. That sets up difficult choices for everyone, opines Stephen Bartholomeusz writing about how the president-elect will change how the world works.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-donald-trump-will-change-how-the-world-works-20241125-p5kt70.html
Internal analysis by the Reserve Bank of Australia has warned an “extreme” trade war between the United States and China would drive down the local sharemarket, push the dollar lower and potentially force the central bank to cut interest rates to prop up the economy, Michael Read and John Kehoe tell us that the research, released to The Australian Financial Review under freedom of information laws, represents the most in-depth insight into the RBA’s view of the economic implications of last month’s US presidential election.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/extreme-trump-trade-war-would-hit-shares-growth-and-rates-rba-20241125-p5ktdt
Matthew Knott reports that Penny Wong has given her strongest indication that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would be arrested if he travelled to Australia, saying any decision “will be informed by international law, not by politics”. This will arc up the Coalition.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-will-comply-with-international-law-on-netanyahu-arrest-wong-20241125-p5ktdl.html
A group representing Jewish, Palestinian and Muslim communities have lodged a complaint to the Australian Human Rights Commission claiming Peter Dutton has engaged in racial vilification and discrimination. Kim Wingerei reports.
https://michaelwest.com.au/peter-dutton-to-face-legal-action-for-racial-discrimination/
Pete Hegseth, Trump’s nominee for secretary of defense, has attacked several key US alliances such as Nato, allied countries such as Turkey and international institutions such as the United Nations in two recent books, as well as saying US troops should not be bound by the Geneva conventions. At the same time, the man who would head America’s gigantic military has tied US foreign policy almost entirely to the priority of Israel, a country of which he says: “If you love America, you should love Israel.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/25/pete-hegseth-book-attacks-nato-alliances
The president and vice president of the Philippines are at each other’s throats. But the row is a potential proxy for a much more significant conflict, warns Peter Hartcher telling us why Beijing may seek to exploit this Philippine political divorce.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/he-said-xi-said-why-beijing-may-seek-to-exploit-philippine-political-divorce-20241125-p5kt9s.html
Contrary to almost every headline, Donald Trump did not achieve his second coming by a landslide, at least not by Australian measures of what makes a landslide. Michael Pascoe comments while mentally preparing for a month in Trumpistan.
https://michaelwest.com.au/trump-won-but-not-by-a-landslide-does-it-matter/
Special Counsel Jack Smith asked a federal judge on Monday to dismiss the case accusing President-elect Donald Trump of plotting to overturn the 2020 election, citing longstanding Justice Department policy shielding presidents from prosecution while in office. The move announced in court papers marks the end of the Justice Department’s landmark effort to hold Trump accountable for what prosecutors called a criminal conspiracy to cling to power in the run-up to his supporters’ attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. America deserves what it voted for!
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/donald-trump-s-2020-election-overthrow-attempt-case-to-be-dropped-20241126-p5ktgt.html
Donald Trump’s final flurry of cabinet picks and other appointments rounded out what his aides described as a unified, loyal, MAGA-driven administration. But scratch the surface and there are at least three distinct factions and a range of ideologies, barely suppressed to get through the rigours of the confirmation process. The new York Times tells us what these factions are.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/inside-the-three-factions-of-trump-s-cabinet-20241125-p5kt80.html
Trump’s ‘manosphere’ White House takes shape. It’s a searing affront to women, writes Maureen Dowd who says that in putting forward three men accused of sexual misconduct, Trump is conveying that men like himself are the perpetual victims of lies, so it should not be disqualifying.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-manosphere-white-house-takes-shape-it-s-a-searing-affront-to-women-20241124-p5kt4n.html
The next Trump Administration is going to be a period of chaos from which the United States may never recover socially or economically, writes George Grundy. He says, “If you were born after the Second World War, you have never seen a time like this. Strap in, because Project 2025 calls for its most drastic action within the first 100 days of a new Trump term. The storm is coming.”
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/no-coming-back-from-trump,19204
Cartoon Corner
David Pope
David Rowe
Matt Golding
Cathy Wilcox
Mark Knight
Spooner
From the US
Cats care. That headline is misleading. They don’t dote/adore/subserviently like dogs but they definitely, selectively, care.
I’m not taking about affection. The cats I have known weren’t overly affectionate. But they would be if one of their human siblings was unwell or returned from sports trips (etc).
They may appear (and usually are) aloof. But they form bonds with humans that is reciprocal and loyal as the research behind the headline shows
https://www.iflscience.com/your-cat-knows-you-re-talking-to-it-but-just-doesn-t-care-65908
If only I was able to teach the cat to walk with me into town (as some other cat owners have done) it would be the perfect pet.
‘Confessions says:
Tuesday, November 26, 2024 at 7:16 am
C@t:
How’s this for irony?
A paradox has settled across California’s velvet green fields and orchards. California farmers, who are some of the most ardent supporters of Donald Trump, would seem to be on a collision course with one of the president-elect’s most important campaign promises.
Trump has pledged to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants across the country, including, he has said in recent days, rounding up people and putting them in newly built detention camps.
…’
==================
Arab American were the first turkeys to spot Trump’s christmas plans with the Huckabee and Gronk appointments.
gobble gobble gobble
American farmers are the second bunch of turkeys to spot Trump’s christmas plans.
gobble, gobble, gobble.
American consumer turkeys have yet to see what is coming at them from over the farming horizon.
More expensive food.
gobble gobble gobble.
In Australia Dutton is conning the COL turkeys to vote for him:
1. he suppressed real wages
2. he voted against the S3 tax cuts
3. he wants to increase numbers of people coming in
4. he wanted to destroy bulk billing
5. he voted against energy bill relief
6. he left inflation at double the level it is now
7. he voted against cheap housing.
8. he voted against fee free TAFE
9. he voted against HECs debt relief
10. he voted against cheaper medicines
11. he wants to install more expensive energy generation.
12. he delivered six per cent inflation and rising interest rates.
Trump.Gina.Dutton.
Dudding your turkey voters beats feeding the chooks every single time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXhesrnIcCY
Fess: “From the NY Times. Trump has certainly done well for the Republican vote, increasing the diversity of its voters.”
——————————————————————————-
I think this might have more to do with “push” factors rather than “pull” ones.
The Dems are going to have to have a really hard look at the woke/identitarian/DEI – or whatever one wishes to call it – component of their brand. On the whole, the Dems collectively have become increasingly committed to this stuff over recent decades, and yet there appears to be a steady drift of African-Americans and, in particular, Latinos away from their party. So these policies appear to be failing to appeal to the very voters whom they are meant to help. Sam Harris and others keep quoting some survey in which some very low number of Hispanic Americans (I think it was 3 per cent) favoured changing their official designation from “Latino” to “Latinx.”
And look at what has happened with Asian voters: a group which is inclined to feel (with justification) it has been disproportionately disadvantaged by DEI policies implemented by universities and some employers.
Sure, Kamala Harris other Dems tried to keep very quiet about these sorts of issues during the campaign. But I actually think they overdid it a bit and made the voters suspicious. And I’m also inclined to think that most of the damage had already been done earlier in Biden’s term through his very passive initial response to the situation at the southern border and the student debt forgiveness (which was no doubt perceived by many voters as favouring the same constituency that loves the wokey stuff).
And then there were the anti-Israel protest on campuses, which of course Biden and Harris had nothing whatsoever to do with, but which had the effect of tarnishing the brand of the political left in general. And a raft of other issues: eg, the growing numbers of people sleeping on the streets in some of the major cities, an issue which is strongly (and rightly) associated in voters’ minds with the more left-wing element of the Democrat Party.
And, of course, the Republicans made hay with Kamala’s past comments about gender transition surgery for convicted criminals (and/or illegal immigants?), her support for the Green New Deal, etc.
Put all of that together and I suspect that it encouraged some previous Democrat voters – including African-Americans and Latinos – to feel that the younger, emerging generation of left politicians and their supporters was going to have less interest in their needs and concerns than older figures such as Biden. And I reckon reversing this trend isn’t going to be easy: no matter how crazy and destructive Trump 2.0 turns out to be. Apart from the noxious Tlaib, the woke element of the Democrat Party displayed party loyalty and stayed very quiet during the election campaign. But I expect them to come out of the woodwork any day now and start claiming that Kamala’s main problem was that she didn’t embrace the woke agenda strongly enough. And the debate will then go on.
Anyone who hasn’t listened to this rant yet would benefit from it, even though I think Sam Harris is overly-obsessed with trans issues to the point that I might even be inclined to describe him as “transphobic” (which I think is a stupid word). But, otherwise a lot of what he says about the Democrats’ dilemma is spot on, and is broadly applicable to left-leaning parties throughout the West.
https://www.samharris.org/podcasts/making-sense-episodes/391-the-reckoning
C@t:
The next DNC Chair candidates. There are only 2 in that line up that represent genuine change. Ben Wikler and Chuck Rocha. Rocha managed Rubin Gallego’s campaign.
meher:
Appraently Bernie Sanders did very well with Latino voters. Bernie is not the solution now that he’s so old, but perhaps there’s a form of populism that can be used to appeal to working class voters in the same way Trump does and Bernie did.
WW3 rages on in the WA Liberal Branch. Seven West Media employs the Perth Lord Mayor and are promoting him feverishly to become Liberal Leader. Seven West’s mouthpiece, the West Australian newspaper headlines “Liberal Leader Libby Mettam has been put on notice by ‘catastrophic’ polling that warns the party is on the edge of a new record election disaster, unless she hands over the reins.”
Articles critical of the Libs aren’t paywalled, for example “The Liberal party thought it had hit rock bottom on 24 March 2021, when the headline declared WA a One Party State.” That was the election where Mark McGowan reduced the Libs to just two MLA’s.
Another article has the Senior Liberal Peter Collier has lashing out at calls the party’s election candidates should get a vote on the leadership, saying they had to do their “apprenticeship” first. That’s because of the very low number of elected members it was suggested that candidates should have a say in how the branch is run. No way says Collier, a member of the religious clan that now owns the Libs.
Long may the war continue. Both the state and federal elections are already in the bag for the ALP.
Team Katich says:
Tuesday, November 26, 2024 at 7:27 am
Cats care. That headline is misleading. They don’t dote/adore/subserviently like dogs but they definitely, selectively, care.
I’m not taking about affection. The cats I have known weren’t overly affectionate. But they would be if one of their human siblings was unwell or returned from sports trips (etc).
They may appear (and usually are) aloof. But they form bonds with humans that is reciprocal and loyal as the research behind the headline shows
https://www.iflscience.com/your-cat-knows-you-re-talking-to-it-but-just-doesn-t-care-65908
If only I was able to teach the cat to walk with me into town (as some other cat owners have done) it would be the perfect pet.
=================
Cats are sharing creatures. Toxoplasmosis is my fave.
https://www.vet.cornell.edu/departments-centers-and-institutes/cornell-feline-health-center/health-information/feline-health-topics/zoonotic-disease-what-can-i-catch-my-cat
Minister for housing tells some porkies claiming greens having been ‘blocking’ housing legislation for 2 and a half years.
HAFF was introduced not even 2 years ago yet.
Albo claims greens demand everything and give nothing. Curious then that they gave everything and got nothing.
Labor has had the opportunity to get both bills through in short order. “We’ll pass the bill if we get some concessions” is the foundation for all political negotiation, and labor refused to engage in it, preferring to play silly games while people go without somewhere to live.
Ideologically, I’m disappointed the greens gave up the fight, because it in effect means the housing crisis is allowed to continue and worsen under the policies of the labor political party.
A win for labor (who are not exactly gracious in victory), but a loss for Australian housing security.
‘meher baba says:
Tuesday, November 26, 2024 at 7:36 am
Fess: “From the NY Times. Trump has certainly done well for the Republican vote, increasing the diversity of its voters.”
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I think this might have more to do with “push” factors rather than “pull” ones.
….’
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I wouldn’t underestimate the capacity of the Republicans to lie in order to get turkeys to vote for christmas. There are already some chickens coming home to roost. And Trump 2 has yet to get stuck in.
Trump. Gina. Dutton. Join the dots.
Confessions @ #31 Tuesday, November 26th, 2024 – 7:38 am
Jen O’Malley Dillon’s husband? Erm, no.
Rahm Emmanuel? Definitely not.
Ken Martin. Maybe a Wellstone type can get the Democrats the popular support they need.
Ben Wikler. The Democrats just lost Wisconsin and he was supposed to be the wunderkind. So no.
Mallory McMorrow. Maybe. She did create a splash and went viral but her strategy is?
Chuck Rocha. Yeah I’d go with him as well. Time to get a strategic brain to really shake things up.
theunaustralian: Labor Agrees To Give Max Chandler-Mather A Gold Star In Exchange For The GReens Passing Their Housing Bill
Granny Anny,
Is Ian Goodenough allied with the Peter Collier faction?
Also, is Matthias Cormann still pulling strings in WA from afar?
The Green have been playing silly buggers with their ‘demands’ all term. And are stilling doing it with biodiversity conservation and protection.
They got snookered by their own arrogant wrecking act.
Now they are doing poor bugger us and crybully.
Sob. Sob.
The reality is that the Albanese Government has done more for housing, including for social housing and including in particular for housing for remote Indigenous communities (who are infinitely worse off than the Greens inner urb turkey targets) than ALL federal governments combined this century.
Dutton voted against all of that and has promised to pull the funding.
The housing choice is clear: Dutton wrecks; the Greens arse around; Labor builds.
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Tuesday, November 26, 2024 at 7:54 am
theunaustralian: Labor Agrees To Give Max Chandler-Mather A Gold Star In Exchange For The GReens Passing Their Housing Bill’
================
haha
Meanwhile, the chairman of Melbourne-based biotech giant CSL, Brian McNamee, says leading fund managers have told him Victoria is currently uninvestable and warned the damage wrought by years of financial mismanagement by successive Labor governments will take at least a decade to fix.
_____________________
It will take longer than that.
The United States and France are reportedly set to announce a 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, following reports a deal has been approved in principle by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The proposed ceasefire involves a 60-day transition period during which the Israeli military would withdraw from southern Lebanon, the Lebanese army would deploy in areas close to the border and Hezbollah would move north of the Litani River.
The Israeli government has yet to sign off on the deal, but multiple outlets report Israel’s cabinet would sign off on the deal when it meets on Tuesday to discuss the matter.
Reuters reported that US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron are expected to announce a ceasefire within 36 hours, citing four well placed Lebanese sources.
Nicholas: “Massive and growing inequality in Australia is very much a crisis and ultimately it stems from the misguided neoliberal economic reforms of Hawke and Keating, two characters who are wrongly praised by technocratic elites as heroic visionaries. Labor deserves to reap what it sowed.”
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Have you got some data on the “massive and growing income inequality” you are alleging? Since the 1980s, the Gini coefficient (which is the most reliable method of measuring inequality of distribution) for Australia has fluctuated up and down both in relation to income and wealth. Interestingly, the Gini coefficient for income distribution reached its lowest point since it was first measured in 1997, just after the end of the Hawke-Keating period, and its highest point in 2008, not long after the Howard Government was voted out. It currently tends to hover in between those two points.
Overall, income inequality in Australia has never been at greatly concerning levels IMO. And there is evidence that the overall living standards of the poorest segment of the population have improved considerably over recent decades in all respects other than housing costs. (I’m happy to go into this later if you want.)
The more interesting (and concerning) indicator for me is the Gini coefficient for wealth, which in Australia typically hovers just above 0.6 and, depending on which measure you use, is high by global standards (although the ABS doesn’t agree with me about this). But however, you look at it, we have a large and increasingly wealthy class of home owners in our country. And the two biggest policy changes that have brought this about are 1) the deregulation of the banking system, most of which took place under Hawke and Keating and 2) the large upward shift in the average annual migrant intake that commenced under R-G-R and which has been sustained by A-T-M and Albo.
1) brought many benefits for lower income working people and, in particular, single women, many of whom had found it almost impossible to obtain housing loans in old days of highly-regulated banking. But, with the benefit of hindsight, more could have been done to protect some borrowers against borrowing too much. And, notwithstanding all the current criticism of the RBA for leaving interest rates too high for too long, their general tendency in the 21st century has been to set them a bit too low, which has led them to trigger two housing bubbles: one at around the end of the GFC and another during and after COVID.
But the huge boost in housing values over the past two decades – and the associated sustained unaffordability of rents in many locations – are mainly the result of 2). Are high migration rates (IMO unsustainably high) an instance of “neo-liberalism” (whatever that is)? Or are they just bad policy: a lazy way of creating a sugar hit of economic growth which has the added benefit of making both employers and existing home buyers/owners happy? I reckon the answer is pretty obvious.
banquo
The fact that the Greens were prepared to pass the bills shows that the bills were going to do good. It is a pity that the Greens killed those bills stone dead for years and years.
It is ironic that one of the bills was based on a policy the Greens themselves took to the last election.
But there it is
The limits of 12% writ large.
Lol. 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/nov/26/albanese-chandler-mather-greens-analysis
So Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is ‘weak’, huh? So what does that make Little Maxie then? 😐
‘meher baba says:
Tuesday, November 26, 2024 at 8:01 am
…’
==============
Thanks. Interesting.
It would be interesting to calibrate housing cost trends against housing space per individual. The trend to living in single person households is one driver. The other is the trend to mcmansions. Against this is the ratio of flats to bungalows.
You have left out the differential tax treatments that encourage investment in ever-bigger houses.
Bottom line is correct: the balance between supply and demand.
“Starting to look like a change of government election in March.”
Lols. Should we pity poor L’arse?
Nah.
If the aggregate polling shows Labor 32, LNP 38, Greens 12, ON 7 with ‘others’ accounting for the remaining ~11% at the beginning of the election season (so let’s see where bludgertrack and newspoll is at the end of January and early February) then its starting to look very much like a status quo election. … and one probably held in May. Although it is possible that Albo may go ‘early’ (although March is hardly an ‘early election’ is it?).
Sure there may be a few seats changing hands – each way (and I think Labor will lose one seat in each of the NT, WA and NSW but may likely pick up a few as well) but ultimately the Teal and proto-Teal (Mayo and Indi) wall will hold.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, November 26, 2024 at 6:28 am
Griff,
A new federal Progressive party to get your vote that isn’t Labor or The Greens?
The Animal Justice Party
Legalise Cannabis Party
The Whatever the name of the Science/Sex/Pirate Party is. Is that Reason?
A Teal???
____________
Fusion is The Whatever. Policies aren’t as detailed as Reason were but the vibe is alright. I shall opt for them in the Senate. It would depend on the options available to me in the Lower House. Fusion, then Animal Justice. The latter have a few policies that could be of concern if taken too far, but as a minor party, they may not have much impact. I agree with Legalise Cannabis as a single issue, but the vibe is libertarian, which can go too far for me, social cohesion is important. Our area is too poor for a Teal to stand, so not an option. And they don’t do the Senate in NSW. Labor before the Coalition in the middle placings and the Far Right bringing up the rear.
That is the state of play at the moment. All subject to change when circumstances change.
How many fed labor seats in VIC do labor hold that is under 5 %.
Trump will cut a deal with China and shaft them a bit as well.
Last WA lib party meeting today in the phone box -Tarago van -before the next election.
If anything is going to happen this is the day!
Stokes is doing his best and if that polling is correct and libs are indeed tracking the same vote as last time then labor will be looking at 16 years in gov in WA.
VIC and QLD labor gov have hit the wall between 8-12 years mind you ACT are lifers!