Federal polls: YouGov, DemosAU and Roy Morgan (open thread)

A new federal polling entrant produces results well in line with the general trend, while Roy Morgan finds Labor with its nose back in front.

Two new federal poll results to relate:

• New-ish polling outfit DemosAU has published what I believe to be its first national federal voting intention result, recording a 50-50 split on two-party preferred from primary votes of Labor 32%, Coalition 38%, Greens 12% and One Nation 7%. The full report for the poll, which was conducted last Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1038, features breakdowns by gender, age, education, residential tenure and personal income.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor recovering a 51-49 lead on the headline two-party measure, reversing last week’s result, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up two-and-a-half), Coalition 37% (down two), Greens 12.5% (down one) and One Nation 6.5% (steady). The two-party measure based on preference flows from 2022 has Labor leading 51.5-48.5, after a dead heat last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1663.

UPDATE (YouGov): And now a third. YouGov, which has typically reported on Fridays, has its first federal poll since September, showing a dead heat on two-party preferred, unchanged on last time. The primary votes are Labor 30% (steady), Coalition 38% (down one), Greens 13% (down one) and One Nation 9% (up two). Anthony Albanese is steady at 36% approval and down two on disapproval to 56%, while Peter Dutton is steady at 40% and down two to 48%. Albanese holds an unchanged 42-39 lead as preferred prime minister. The poll was conducted last Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1515.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,634 thoughts on “Federal polls: YouGov, DemosAU and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

Comments Page 52 of 53
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  2. Sceptic @ #2549 Sunday, December 1st, 2024 – 6:28 pm

    BK says:
    Sunday, December 1, 2024 at 4:49 pm
    Donald Trump has appointed Charles Kushner, his son-in-law’s father, to be the US ambassador to France.

    Oh the one that set his brother up with a prostitute & filmed him & is a disbarred lawyer… scum rises to the top.

    Filling the Swamp with pond scum.

  3. Dee @ #2537 Sunday, December 1st, 2024 – 5:45 pm

    I was addressing the fact the Greens claimed there was a done deal when clearly there wasn’t.

    There was a deal that had been negotiated, agreed between the negotiators, and documented. Of course it would then need to go back through both parties internal processes to be formally ratified, and it may not have emerged unscathed – poor form, but more negotiation would have then ensued. But it never got that chance.

    Albo stated that he had been directly negotiating with the cross benches in this matter & I would have to go back & listen again but thought at the beginning it was stated the Greens had changed their demands.

    The Greens had dropped some of their demands. Which perhaps Albo was not expecting. Albo does not “directly negotiate” legislation – that’s what he has ministers for. Albo’s role would be to either sign off on the negotiated deal, insist it be re-negotiated (perhaps in the light of new information the negotiators didn’t have) or veto it. In this case he vetoed. Yes, he is now claiming that more negotiation is required, but what he is really doing is killing the deal (which he possibly didn’t either want or expect to happen) by kicking the can down the road till after the next election. Why? Because it is threatening his re-election prospects in WA.

    Albo’s not known for running over his colleagues so it appears we may be missing some intel.

    Albo is well known for running over Plibersek at every opportunity. Why? Most likely historical. Or possibly he feels threatened by her. It doesn’t really matter. What matters is that Plibersek lets him get away with it. One of them is not fit for their position. Which one is it?

    We’ll have to wait & see!

    You wait and see. The rest of us can use our eyes.

  4. c@t: “I believe that the PM, an Economist by training, is not a fan of Neoliberalism either. I’d say he’s a supporter of Capitalism with Social Democratic characteristics.”
    ——————————————————————————–
    In the 1980s, the Sydney Uni Economics Department split in two between a normal sort of one where normal economics was taught by a mix of right-wing and some moderate left-wing economists (the sadly late, wonderful Judith Yates being one of the latter) and a Marxist one run by Professor Ted Wheelwright that was called the Department of Political Economy.

    As I understand it, Albo was a student at the Marxist Department, so goodness only knows what nonsense he was taught there. I believe he still cherishes some Marxist ideas in his heart of hearts, but he has been such a pragmatist for such a long time, that they are buried very deep. Thank goodness.

  7. MB
    Bad memories from the mid 70s – the constant protests for red Ted to be made Professor, at one stage disrupting a lecture in histology and embryology- what has that got to do with political economy?
    Eventually he got to be professor but he didn’t ring any bells in Stockholm

  8. meher baba @ #2554 Sunday, December 1st, 2024 – 6:55 pm

    c@t: “I believe that the PM, an Economist by training, is not a fan of Neoliberalism either. I’d say he’s a supporter of Capitalism with Social Democratic characteristics.”
    ——————————————————————————–
    In the 1980s, the Sydney Uni Economics Department split in two between a normal sort of one where normal economics was taught by a mix of right-wing and some moderate left-wing economists (the sadly late, wonderful Judith Yates being one of the latter) and a Marxist one run by Professor Ted Wheelwright that was called the Department of Political Economy.

    As I understand it, Albo was a student at the Marxist Department, so goodness only knows what nonsense he was taught there. I believe he still cherishes some Marxist ideas in his heart of hearts, but he has been such a pragmatist for such a long time, that they are buried very deep. Thank goodness.

    He was but a young man. Anyway, the chicky babes were probably hotter in the Marxist stream. 😉

  12. c@t: “He was but a young man. Anyway, the chicky babes were probably hotter in the Marxist stream. ”
    ——————————————————————————-
    Well, I suppose they were ok. In my time – during which Albo only appeared on the scene near the end – many of the lefty girls at Syd Uni tended to look, dress and talk a bit like SH-Y. The lefty boys were mostly a bit on the earnest side.

    The Liberal girls were usually the hottest of all: you still ran into the odd one wearing twinnies and pearls back then, which was an oddly alluring look in among all the t shirts and jeans. But unfortunately most of those girls were only interested in guys studying law or medicine.

  13. On Kash Patel’s appointment. Hopefully the GOP senate have severe reservations and are prepared to block his appointment.

    Trump has made clear how much he hates the FBI, and he has convinced his MAGA base that it’s a nest of political corruption. In a stunning reversal of political polarity, a significant part of the law-and-order GOP now regards the men and women of federal law enforcement with contempt and paranoia. If Trump’s goal is to break the FBI and undermine its missions, Kash Patel is the perfect nominee. Some senior officials would likely resign rather than serve under Patel, which would probably suit Trump just fine.

    Of course, this means the FBI would struggle to do the things it’s supposed to be doing, including fighting crime and conducting counter-intelligence work against America’s enemies. But it would become an excellent instrument of revenge against anyone Trump or Patel identifies as an internal enemy—which, in Trump’s world, is anyone who criticizes Donald Trump.

    The Russians speak of the “power ministries,” the departments that have significant legal and coercive capacity. In the United States, those include the Justice Department, the Defense Department, the FBI, and the intelligence community. Trump has now named sycophants to lead each of these institutions, a move that eliminates important obstacles to his frequently expressed desires to use the armed forces, federal law-enforcement agents, intelligence professionals, and government lawyers as he chooses, unbounded by the law or the Constitution.

    If you want to assemble the infrastructure of an authoritarian government, this is how you do it.

    The early-20th-century Peruvian strongman Óscar R. Benavides once stated a simple principle that Trump now appears to be pursuing when he said: “For my friends, everything; for my enemies, the law.” It falls now to the Republican members of the Senate to decide whether Trump can impose this formula on the United States.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/kash-patel-principle/680838/?gift=_IXYI0Wrwnxuvm7JZ0fMfLyMalbJhTJ1f4imheld7FU&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

  15. The Liberal girls were usually the hottest of all: you still ran into the odd one wearing twinnies and pearls back then, which was an oddly alluring look in among all the t shirts and jeans.

    Goodness. This is like something my grandfather would’ve said.

    ‘Twinnies’?

  17. The Greens killed off all negotiations on the EPA for the best part of two years.
    They did this with their DEMAND that it include a climate trigger.
    The Greens then got a bit of nudge in various elections. It turns out that there were potential or actual Greens voters who were not all that enchanted with obstructionists and the Mouth Almighty stuntings.

    The Green dropped the climate trigger DEMAND. It was a DEMAND for two and a half years. Non negotiable. A must have. Then suddenly it was not a DEMAND after all.

    Apparently not wanting an EPA they put up a new demand: a ban on land clearing. Some time during the negotiations, they changed the land clearing ban DEMAND to a national logging ban.

    This all got to a draft text that Plibersek was apparently happy with. There were two problems. The first was that the Greens had telescoped negotiations on the EPA into a couple of seeks.

    The second problem: Plibersek had not brought her colleagues, or the prime minister, along with her.

    Fatal mistake.

    When the Green said that they had an agreement, what they had was presumably an agreement with Plibersek, not with the Labor Government.

  18. Re Confessions @7:16 PM. ”It is clear that if this proceeds into the next administration he will be unfairly targetted. His crimes are minuscule, less than those committed by others whom Trump has pardoned.”

    And less than those Trump has committed.

  19. Fess: “‘Twinnies’?”
    ——————————————————————————-
    Twin sets.

    A traditionally dowdy upper class look, but among the mass of undergraduates they gave the girls who wore them a bizarrely exotic character. I suppose the fact that some of them were also heiresses to business or farming fortunes was an added attraction.

  20. Steve777 @ #2570 Sunday, December 1st, 2024 – 7:41 pm

    Re Confessions @7:16 PM. ”It is clear that if this proceeds into the next administration he will be unfairly targetted. His crimes are minuscule, less than those committed by others whom Trump has pardoned.”

    And less than those Trump has committed.

    Trump and much of his cabinet!

  23. December 1st, 2024 – 6:58 pm

    “C@tmomma @ #2553 Sunday, December 1st, 2024 – 6:32 pm

    I’m having a moment. Gretchen Whitmer Followed me on Bluesky!

    Wow. Is it the real Whitmer?

    Actually, no it isn’t. It’s labelled a fan account on their profile. ”

    You have to be careful with phoney Facebook profiles.
    Just yesterday on a Prince fan page I follow, Prince himself warned everyone not to be taken in by fake messages.

  24. I predicted Patel being put in charge of the FBI a couple of weeks back. He’s a ludicrous choice, but I wonder how many of these ratbags the Senate is up to blocking.

    For me, Patel would be in the top 3 with Hegseth and Gabbard. If the Senate blocks those 3 and gets replacements of a quality on about a par with his second A-G pick Pam Bondi, then that would be good work I reckon.

  28. Here it is:

    7/10 on my 2024 predictions:

    Lars Von Triersays:
    Saturday, December 30, 2023 at 3:57 pm
    My ten predictions for 2024:
    1 – Victorian liberals never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity . Dunkley will be a Labor retain. SUCCESS
    2- Albo will be replaced mid year by Jim Chalmers, with an election soon after. TBC – FAIL – although the outcome next year will show this is what should have happened.
    3 – labor will be returned as a minority govt with 72 seats with a supply and confidence arrangement with the greens and teals. Liberals will gain 6 seats from Labor and 2 from teals. FAIL
    4- qld Labor is defeated and a minority lnp govt wins state election. ½ Mark
    5- Higgins/ lehrmann will lead to a nacc hearing about the 2m settlement. SUCCESS
    6- neither trump nor Biden will be elected president in the us presidential election in November. ½ Mark – I had thought correctly Biden would be pushed out as too old, I had thought a sane candidate (Kamala Harris) would mean Trump would be pushed out – obviously wrong.
    7- Netanyahu will cling on in israel – Gaza Palestinians will effectively be expelled to Sinai. SUCCESS although the expulsion is yet to happen.
    8- ukr war will end in a ceasefire in Dec 2024 based on current lines of control. TBC – SUCCESS – I claim this as a success although the exact date of a cease fire is yet to play out.
    9- Solomon Islands will agree to Chinese ships having rest and refuelling rights in its territory. SUCCESS
    10 – lots more discussion about AUKUS but nothing of any substance. SUCCESS

  29. Lars Von Trier

    5- nacc hearing on Higgins settlement , there has been no announcement, that there will be a hearing or if there is going to be one at all

  33. Most of this COL crisis in the last 6 months is just exaggerated shit. All of a sudden it will magically disappear if Dutton is elected.

  34. I 100% agree with this even though I regard Joe Rogan as a bit of a douchebag and definitely not someone I would listen to.

    You might not like Rogan. I’m no fan, and Williams certainly isn’t. But what the former comedian and TV host has managed to accomplish with his podcast, The Joe Rogan Experience, is precisely what the ABC has largely failed at for years – to meaningfully engage with young audiences.

    Considering Australians are the consumers of the most podcasts in the world, you’d think Williams would be paying a lot of attention to this space, and the people who dominate it. But in his comments, he displayed a basic misunderstanding of Rogan’s modus operandi.

    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/by-dismissing-joe-rogan-kim-williams-has-missed-a-golden-opportunity-20241129-p5kuj2.html

    Outrage has flowed thick and fast over the replacement of several popular ABC radio hosts. Who the hell listens to radio anymore unless you’re in a bona fide emergency and need to know where to evacuate?

    ABC RN Breakfast used to be one of my must listen to on the way to work. But it hasn’t been that for maybe 15 years now because it became the audio version of The Australian. Appointing Kim Williams as ABC Chair is just prolonging the inevitable death of the ABC. He is 72, of a generation for whom podcasts and social media never existed, and so clearly cannot grasp the significance of new media.

  35. steve davis @ #2584 Sunday, December 1st, 2024 – 8:38 pm

    Most of this COL crisis in recent 6 months is just exaggerated shit. All of a suddeni t will magically disappear if Dutton is elected.

    Housing is the same. Every Saturday the SMH offers the weekend’s top sellers (usually high end auction clearances), and I’ve lost count of the number of ‘first home buyer beating out downsizers’ stories of young couples buying multi-million dollar terraces in places like Surry Hills, Paddington, Balmain, Newtown that I’ve read over the past year.

    What’s the bet the minute there’s a change of government suddenly housing becomes so much more affordable.

  38. steve davissays:
    Sunday, December 1, 2024 at 8:38 pm
    Most of this COL crisis in the last 6 months is just exaggerated shit.
    ======================================================
    Is it? Do you think Eddy, Page or Banquo think the same.
    People living in ripped tents with their pets in a local park. No health, dental or vet care. Perhaps sleeping in their car hoping the police don’t shine a torch through the window in the middle of the night. Alright for people like you – probably living in some $4.3m property in coco-banana-land.
    Good onya steve davis.

  39. Confessions

    I agree about radio national breakfast and I’m on the fence about Kim Williams but according to this profile he listens to “many podcasts” and subscribes to lots of on line media.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/i-would-be-regarded-by-most-people-as-being-very-eccentric-kim-williams-on-the-toughest-job-in-media-20240821-p5k44b.html

    He’s an oddball but I think he probably consumes more media than the average joe.

    A sample from that story: His media diet includes the major Australian newspapers, The New York Times, The Economist (his favourite general news and commentary publication), The New York Review, The New Yorker, The Australian Book Review, The Griffith Review, The Monthly, The Saturday Paper, The Quarterly Essay, Australian Foreign Affairs and The Jewish Quarterly.

    This is a “small summary” of the large number of subscriptions he has, which also includes Spotify, Netflix, Disney+, Foxtel (and its digital platforms), Mubi, DocPlay, AppleTV+, Amazon Prime Video, and others – but recently, he and his wife watch little other than the ABC. He also reads lots of books and listens to many podcasts.

  41. Scott at 8:23 pm

    5- nacc hearing on Higgins settlement , there has been no announcement, that there will be a hearing or if there is going to be one at all

    ————-

    That rather sounds like every single matter before the NACC other than the public announcement re Robodebt, doesn’t it?

  42. Confessions
    Yes its manufactured shite, conning the punters of how bad it is under Albo. Inflation is a touch off the normal range, petrol has reduced about 40 cents a litre and people have had plenty of electricity subsidies to the point of having minus bills.

    Yet as soon as Labor promises handouts its all wrong because it will push inflation through the roof.

  43. Rossmcg:

    He’s from an era that has passed. And an elitist era at that.

    Aunty needs someone capable of taking her into the next generation. And Boomer ABC chairs need not apply.

  44. Paul A
    I see PB after dark has arrived. You’re just a Conservative wally that believes everything that comes out of a Liberals mouth.

  45. steve davis says:
    Sunday, December 1, 2024 at 8:59 pm
    Confessions
    Yes its manufactured shite, conning the punters of how bad it is under Albo. Inflation is a touch off the normal range, petrol has reduced about 40 cents a litre and people have had plenty of electricity subsidies to the point of having minus bills.

    Yet as soon as Labor promises handouts its all wrong because it will push inflation through the roof.
    _______________-
    Australian Deep State acting to coop Labor?

  46. The fabled list of predictions. Now I know what you people/posters have referred to on & off this year.
    Shit, No.8. Zelensky was only last night talking about “peace” and ceding territory to Russia.
    How the hell did you think of this Lars. Were you expecting a change in the U.S. Presidency?

  47. Of course there is a cost of living crisis, that’s what happens when interest rates, rental costs, inflation and costs of goods of services all combine to put increasing pressure on people, how much more obvious can it get? Yet Albo and crew think hmm top priority in this term is a Voice to parliament that few really care about – seemingly as out of touch as Steve Davis.

  49. Paul A – I thought the writing was on the wall when the UKR offensive failed last year irrespective of who won the US Presidency.

  50. Confessions

    Some non boomers with a commercial radio background no less have just sacked a few well liked abc broadcasters.
    I doubt that decision crossed Williams’ desk.

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