Two new polls out this evening, one being the first Newspoll result from The Australian in four weeks, showing the Coalition with an unchanged two-party lead of 51-49. Both major parties are up two on the primary vote, Labor to 33% and the Coalition to 40%, with the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation down two to 5%. Anthony Albanese is steady on 40% approval and up one on disapproval to 55%, while Peter Dutton is up two on approval to 40% and down one on disapproval to 51%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 45-37 to 45-41. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1261.
Nine Newspapers has the monthly Resolve Strategic poll has Labor unchanged on 30%, the Coalition up one to 39%, the Greens down one to 11%, One Nation steady on 5%, independent down one to 11% and others up one to 4%. I reckon this to put two-party preferred somewhere between 50-50 and 51-49 to the Coalition, based on preference flows at the 2022 election. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 37% and down one on disapproval to 51%, while Peter Dutton is up four to 45% and down one to 40%. The two leaders are tied 37-37 on preferred prime minister, after Albanese led 38-35 last time.
The poll also finds 26% rating Donald Trump positively and 55% negatively, compared with 41% and 25% for Kamala Harris, with 40% considering Trump’s election will be bad for Australia compared with 29% for good. A series of findings on foreign policy questions, one being that 27% agreement that Australia should pause or withdraw from the AUKUS nuclear submarines arrangement with 35% disagreeing. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1621.
nadia88 @ #2198 Sunday, November 17th, 2024 – 6:17 pm
Well, I’m not sure I’d call it “interesting”, but other than that you are no doubt correct.
Albo may not know how to govern, but he sure as shit thinks he knows how to campaign … you know, because he did so well last time. Against the worst PM we had previously ever seen (as usual, you have to exclude Rudd from any such comparisons).
So we are in for perhaps 6 months of permanent campaigning and no actual government.
I should probably just slit my wrists now 🙁
Peter Dutton/ federal lib/nats and propaganda media units\
Will want to punish those on welfare benefits harder than they did when last in government
Harsher work for the dole , for those who are unfortunate not be able to be in a job or can not work
Harsher on students
Harsher on the sick and disadvantage
Harsher on pensioners , who are not able to support themselves
Peter Dutton/ federal lib/nats and propaganda media units
Will punish the environment harsher than last time they were in government
Nuclear power stations put in earthquake areas, water supply will be drained , odour and noise pollution
Great to see you posting again Scott and that you’ve put the asha/watt criticism behind you.
Re Climate Change, Australians are very keen that we act as long as it costs them nothing. That’s the political reality. Storming the ramparts as the Greens are demanding will result in an early return of the Coalition, the end to any effective action and probably the reversal of much of the progress made to date, unsatisfactory as it may be to the Greens.
To make any progress at all, the Coalition needs to be kept out of office, ideally for a generation, but even a couple of terms would help.
Labor are constrained by the politically possible. They need the votes of people who care more about grocery prices and their mortgage rate than they do about what might happen if global temperatures rise 3°, who fear crime more than sea level rise. And all the while Labor operates in a hostile media ecosystem.
What is politically possible? It’s a matter of judgement, I think that Albo could be a bit more courageous, but others here will differ.
Be all that as it may, same-same is dangerous crap. I suspect that many of those pushing this narrative have a hidden agenda. Maybe some of them haven’t thought it through. Or maybe Adam Bandt and his followers are accellerationists, hoping that the right-wing reactionaries get a chance to do their worst, all for the greater good and a glorious future, of course. It’s the only way many of their words and actions make sense.
Confessions says:
Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 3:59 pm
If true.. nuts. Of course it’s possible as the ultimate act of revenge..
I hope it’s the latter & good on them if it is… sometimes one must take a stand for truth & justice even if it costs you.
They have suffered long & hard at the hands of a genocidal Israel .. nothing to lose.. good on them.
Lars Von Trier
around 6 months to go, until federal election day and maybe for Peter Dutton leadership
Catching up with earlier comments:
– talk of an early election was merely chum tossed into the water by Liberal boosters to see if fish were biting. It never made any sense for Albo to go early.
– some of those saying “well of course the SA Libs lost Black because of the drug case” ignores the fact that some of the same posters were canvassing the popularity or not of the Malinauskas government just a week ago.
– the same critics have simultaneously expressed concern about the high level of immigration and then the cost to business of cutting it. Which is it – are they for or against more immigration?
Irene says:
Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 5:52 pm
pied pipersays:
Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 3:12 pm
Anyone got that picture of Albanese with Joyce smiling in raptures?
Working class sellout.
—————
There is a better one ….’
===================
Liberals suppress wages for a decade as per policy.
Labor: 27% increase in wages.
Four quarters of real wages growth.
Labor is the party for the workers.
Lars,
Couple of updates for your list
Prediction No.6 – Fail
Pred No.7 – Success
Pred No.8 – Might need until late Jan/early Feb, but heading toward Success. Dr.D is all over this part of the world’s geography, so when he starts talking about “future boundaries”, you can probably mark this as a Success.
Pred No.9 – Success
Pred No.10 – Success
Player Onesays:
Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 6:31 pm
nadia88 @ #2198 Sunday, November 17th, 2024 – 6:17 pm
Do you need some help?
Can someone call someone?
gollsays:
Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 6:13 pm
Taylormadesays:
Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 4:29 pm
That comment is just weird.
_____________________
Like shooting fish in a barrel on here at times.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 6:39 pm
How many times have posted that today Lars ?
Desperate are you?
Steve777says:
Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 6:45 pm
_____________________
You obviously have zero faith in Labor’s ability to sell policy.
Let’s just lower expectations. It’s so much easier.
goll @ #2213 Sunday, November 17th, 2024 – 6:59 pm
It’s his m.o. To attempt petty pathetic humiliations.
Taylormade @ #2215 Sunday, November 17th, 2024 – 7:03 pm
It works for the Liberals. 😐
Player One,
Donald has appointed a fracking magnate as energy secretary. Donald also intends to ‘drill baby drill’ as you well know.
There goes all action on climate change Australia has made for nothing.
But don’t slit your wrists, the climate will be the same in 2041 as it is today in 2024, and as it was back when it first became a serious political issue in 2007 – guaranteed!
Nothing to lose, except their land.
But, good on em for voting for the candidate which guarantees that happens.
Wood-Trees-Forest. That’s the Gaza protestors in a nutshell. They were out in Hyde Park again today in yet another fruitless exercise. Clearly these people haven’t realised the geopolitical landscape has changed.
People in Dearborn County voted overwhelmingly for Trump, so the rest of the Palestinian and Lebanese world has to suck that up. Good on the people of Dearborn County. Nothing to lose. Except everything.
The Pete Hegseth of PB. Any day now someone of influence will recognise his hidden talents.
Nadia
Can you remind us of Lars’ predictions
Not exactly. The rest of the world has made commitments and signed up to targets. Including the previous Liberal government.
But I agree that P1 has done nothing but snipe from the sidelines about Labor government action on AGW, while saying nothing about the former government’s recalcitrance on the issue.
OC – He’s lurking at the moment. He can re-post if needs be. 2, 3 & 6 were fails, but the rest bar 8, have proven true. No.6, may actually come true too if Trump is locked up on Nov-26. He would rely on “President” Vance to exonerate him on Jan-20.
When it comes to action on climate change, whether it’s an emergency or not, or whether it’s exaggerated or not, Albo made a promise to end the climate wars and much more importantly, promised cheaper energy prices to the tune of $275 which should have resulted in a cheaper cost of living.
Since then we have had higher energy prices, higher cost of living, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and higher rents.
I’m not making any predictions until after Australia Day next year – but Dutton is in this with a chance above his bald head.
“He would rely on “President” Vance to exonerate him on Jan-20.”
How so? The President doesn’t have the power to pardon or commute felons for state offences.
Dutton is better than even money to win next year as it stands. If Labor somehow scrapes into minority government expect their 2pp polling to fall below 40% within three months.
Hovering around in case we get a freshwater Poll tonight via the AFR.
Phil Coorey has been quiet today, so perhaps not, but they’re sort of due.
Last poll was Oct-21.
Primaries were:
* LNP 41
* ALP 30
* GRN 13
* Others/indies 16
Parliament kicks off again tomorrow, so usually one of the media outlets dumps a poll to stir the pot.
As I said though Phil Coorey at the AFR has been fairly quiet today, so possibly no poll. We’ll see in the next 60 mins.
Looks like a Redbridge National Poll looms, as well as Morgan and Essential in the next 48 hrs.
All these polls will have sampling periods post the Trump election win.
Green David Shoebridge has agreed with Julia Gillard on the need for a government s9lution to the recent HC ruling the Catholic Church was not responsible for the crimes of its priests.
Is there finally an opportunity for a joint action here with the Greens?
“ David Shoebridge@DavidShoebridge
Former prime minister Julia Gillard is right again on institutional child abuse. The recent High Court decision that says priests aren’t employees – therefore churches aren’t liable for their abuse – needs to be overturned by legislation. Quickly.”
The recent High Court decision that says priests aren’t employees
________________
What have they said they are?
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 7:27 pm
“He would rely on “President” Vance to exonerate him on Jan-20.”
How so? The President doesn’t have the power to pardon or commute felons for state offences.
=========================
If that’s the case Andrew, then I suppose Lars will wait until Nov.26 to assess his Pred No-6.
I’m referring to the “hush money” case, which may be a mute point anyway.
Albos disapproval is at 55% wow that’s bad.
One poll shocker away from a challenge to the class traitors leadership.
A ‘moot’ point.
I don’t know nor do I care what Lars has to say about these things, but the hush money case is gone.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/judge-rule-fate-trumps-criminal-hush-money-conviction/story?id=115739560
I’ve been waiting for the moment when the Perfumed Warlord commits his first act of genuflection to the incoming Trump administration. Behold:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/japanese-troops-in-top-end-sends-clear-message-to-china-20241117-p5kr9b.html
“Everything that I’ve heard about Pete Hegseth since his name became public in the context of becoming the Secretary of Defence has been positive,” Marles said of the former soldier, who has controversially called for women to be banned from combat roles and faces accusations of not being sufficiently qualified to lead the Pentagon.
Marles is unfit and well and truly down a rabbit hole.
Oh very amusing. But Lars has proven himself the prognosticator of prognosticators. And he certainly holds a far better success rate than other noted Seers such as Victoria.
“Australian Electoral Reform, major party deals and a matter of trust” – Swollen Pickles
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKycObGYYz4&pp=ygUbYXVzdHJhbGlhbiBlbGVjdG9yYWwgcmVmb3Jt
dave @ #2233 Sunday, November 17th, 2024 – 7:50 pm
He was the instigator of the Early Election claptrap. If you call that success, I’d hate to see what failure from him looks like.
More from that SMH article by ‘Red Alert’ Matthew Knox above:
“Euan Black, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said it was clear that “Australia and Japan now consider each other to be their second-closest defence partners”.
“This is useful strategic insurance against a US that turns inwards under Trump,” he said.
______
This is bonkers and pure wishcasting.
Australia is a South Pacific country and not under threat by our major trading partners in North Asia.
Furthermore, Japan cannot provide ANY insurance to Australia in the event that America withdraws its focus from North Asia. Only risk.
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 7:59 pm
dave @ #2233 Sunday, November 17th, 2024 – 7:50 pm
Oh very amusing. But Lars has proven himself the prognosticator of prognosticators. And he certainly holds a far better success rate than other noted Seers such as Victoria.
He was the instigator of the Early Election claptrap. If you call that success, I’d hate to see what failure from him looks like.
_____________________________________
Lars also predicted that both Biden and Trump would not be presidential candidates on election day. He was within an ears’ width of being right on that one, which surely would have made him the Seer of Seers.
dave says:
Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 7:50 pm
Oh very amusing. But Lars has proven himself the prognosticator of prognosticators. And he certainly holds a far better success rate than other noted Seers such as Victoria.
Oh FFs. 6 out of 10 is well within the realms of flip of the coin for each prediction. If you adjudged one more of the 10 as fail then its 5/10. More importantly, lets see it repeated consistently.
“Oh very amusing. But Lars has proven himself the prognosticator of prognosticators.”
“Peak Albo 1.0” (September 2019) was unfortunate.
“Peak Albo 2.0” (October 2021) was regrettable.
“Peak Albo 3.0” (April 2022) probably put any claim that that L’arse the Arse has to be any sort of prognosticator well and truly to bed.
He’s merely a patristic and irritant at best. Any claim made by him – or on his behalf – since then has no more veracity than broken clock hagiography.
Have said it before and will say it again, I think we need to focus on building strategic and defence ties with our immediate neighbours in ASEAN. Rip up AUKUS and focus more on our immediate region, the US is retreating and in any case long term we need to on our own accord find security within this region.
Well it does unfortunately seem we have seen Peak Albo at some point in the past.
This one’s for Albanese and Wong, via Guy Pearce.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DCctz5lAPRh/
dave says:
Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 8:09 pm
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 7:59 pm
dave @ #2233 Sunday, November 17th, 2024 – 7:50 pm
Oh very amusing. But Lars has proven himself the prognosticator of prognosticators. And he certainly holds a far better success rate than other noted Seers such as Victoria.
He was the instigator of the Early Election claptrap. If you call that success, I’d hate to see what failure from him looks like.
_____________________________________
Lars also predicted that both Biden and Trump would not be presidential candidates on election day. He was within an ears’ width of being right on that one, which surely would have made him the Seer of Seers.
___________________________
Well he better watch out for his shadow or 6 more weeks of winter
Such hostility on here tonight against moi.
It’s just the price of being a teller of unwelcome truths I surmise.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupidsays:
Well he better watch out for his shadow or 6 more weeks of winter
_______________________
You better watch yourself pal or Lars will emerge from his wintry nap and deal a savage bite to you my friend.
“Have said it before and will say it again, I think we need to focus on building strategic and defence ties with our immediate neighbours in ASEAN. Rip up AUKUS and focus more on our immediate region, the US is retreating and in any case long term we need to on our own accord find security within this region.”
___
Have said it before and will say it again, if Australia wanted a strategic defence partnership with a major western country whoever interests in the South Pacific and Indian oceans (ie. home) most closely align with us – and one that has both the spare and immediate capacity to assist us make ‘the next step’ in terms of identified military capabilities that we actually require according the the Defence Strategic Review then its a no brainer – France can supply us with the best subs (conventional or nuclear – take your pick), at the cheapest price, plus the best Tier One sized surface combat platform (the FREMM large frigate/destroyer), plus the best large naval / land strike cruise missile currently in service. … Of course we could (and should) still buy ‘stuff’ from the Americans, on a case by case basis.
… but we have chosen poorly with OHFUCKUS. And before OHFUCKUS we chose poorly with America’s ‘Asia Pivot’ (aka China containment) going back to the middle of Obama’s first term (of which the three Amigos fingerprints were all over that – Biden, Blinken and Kurt Campbell).
Thanks mj for summoning the Rear Admiral.
Player One says:
Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 6:31 pm
nadia88 @ #2198 Sunday, November 17th, 2024 – 6:17 pm
Going to be an interesting summer for us – lets face it, we’re in full campaign mode.
Well, I’m not sure I’d call it “interesting”, but other than that you are no doubt correct.
Albo may not know how to govern, but he sure as shit thinks he knows how to campaign … you know, because he did so well last time. Against the worst PM we had previously ever seen (as usual, you have to exclude Rudd from any such comparisons).
——————————————-
Strange you say that about Rudd. Who was always more popular with voters than Gillard, Shorten and Albanese.
In any opinion poll. Right up to the June 2010 coup (with Gillard showing Labor MPs false data – I wonder who compiled that? Be nice to know),
the poll was Labor 52: 48 LNP, as Labor left MP Mark Butler noted at the time.
He had a vision and was more interested in low income people than these 3 Labor pretenders.
But what the Australian people wanted then and now was and is of no interest to Gillard and Shorten, who had a very different agenda – support the USA ( US marines in Darwin ) and Shorten ( business needs a priority).
And Albanese is just a liar, with ‘no one left behind’ being obviously untrue.
Albanese only won because Morrison was unpopular. Yet Labor have continued most of his policies. Work that out!
Rudd had no chance in 2013 after the Labor games in 2010. You could say those games resulted in the 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019 Labor losses.
But Gillard’s ambition to be PM was achieved and Shorten had 2 chances to be PM and lost. A good outcome for the self centred schemer.
Bad luck for Labor.
Lars was the only one who predicted that Kristina Keneally was utterly unelectable when many here saw her as Prime Ministerabille
“Byung-Chul Han’s Warning: Why Modern Life Feels Emptier Than Ever” – Einzelgänger
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-m-qsGCQz24&t=182s&pp=ygUYYnl1bmcgY2h1bCBoYW4ncyB3YXJuaW5n