Two new polls out this evening, one being the first Newspoll result from The Australian in four weeks, showing the Coalition with an unchanged two-party lead of 51-49. Both major parties are up two on the primary vote, Labor to 33% and the Coalition to 40%, with the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation down two to 5%. Anthony Albanese is steady on 40% approval and up one on disapproval to 55%, while Peter Dutton is up two on approval to 40% and down one on disapproval to 51%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 45-37 to 45-41. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1261.
Nine Newspapers has the monthly Resolve Strategic poll has Labor unchanged on 30%, the Coalition up one to 39%, the Greens down one to 11%, One Nation steady on 5%, independent down one to 11% and others up one to 4%. I reckon this to put two-party preferred somewhere between 50-50 and 51-49 to the Coalition, based on preference flows at the 2022 election. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 37% and down one on disapproval to 51%, while Peter Dutton is up four to 45% and down one to 40%. The two leaders are tied 37-37 on preferred prime minister, after Albanese led 38-35 last time.
The poll also finds 26% rating Donald Trump positively and 55% negatively, compared with 41% and 25% for Kamala Harris, with 40% considering Trump’s election will be bad for Australia compared with 29% for good. A series of findings on foreign policy questions, one being that 27% agreement that Australia should pause or withdraw from the AUKUS nuclear submarines arrangement with 35% disagreeing. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1621.
You know what these numbers mean? Labor needs to spend the entire summer coming up with a new strategy. Fully and immediately. Not spend it like last summer having Albo sulk over losing the 2023 referendum.
At this rate, Labor will definitely lose the 2025 election outright. They need energy, new dynamics. It has actually worked before, the Stage 3 tax reforms really wrong-footed the Coalition, but now they’ve regained the initiative and have the momentum to win a majority next year.
Stop preaching that it’s the “moral duty” to vote Labor or else we’ll get Dutton because if that’s their ultimate tactic then we’ll get Dutton for sure.
Just give as much people as possible something worth voting for and decisively sell it, weave a strong narrative. Pierce through the right-wing media if they have to and get to the voters directly if need be.
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham:
After 904 days the Albanese Labor government has finally lost the 2PP lead in my last-election prefs all-polls polling aggregate!
The Coalition leads 50.1-49.9
I guess Dutton now will be emboldened to campaign like Trump, egged on by Sky News/Murdoch/2GB/3AW etc.
I agree this Albanese Government needs a new narrative and fast, some sort of 2nd term agenda that will appeal to those in outer suburban Australia and in regional areas.
As posted on the previous thread it’s hard to believe things are this tight in Labor’s first term and Dutton as OL. The Coalition are competitive on current numbers.
A slow inexorable decline since The Voice referendum.
There’ll be three regrets in this term for Labor:
1) The Voice
2) f..in around with the RBA and finding out what it was capable of. Labor screwed with the high priests of Martin Place – they no likey.
3) Not going in 2024 before things detiorated further in 2025
I don’t think Labor really wants to undertake the change and policies necessary to win back voters. They have consistently responded to issues only when they become political problems and then offer too little, too late. I don’t think ppl have any confidence in Albo either, he’s a lazy lightweight that can’t look beyond seeking short term political wins. He can’t govern. Neither can Dutton but he may well win by default.
davidwh @ #4 Sunday, November 10th, 2024 – 9:55 pm
Davidwh, there’s a message in this article for the ALP.
But someone in Sussex St is going to have to read and understand it.
Based on the insiders who attack anyone who strays from the path of Sussex St enlightenment I’m not confident anything will change.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/09/trump-victory-explanation-scrutiny
The only thing giving labor hope is Australians usually give governments two terms but labor can’t rely on hope.
And we can be pretty certain reality us going to be one to two point right of these results. I’m confident we are looking at a one term government.
You can’t run a government that’s only interested in inner-city folks and their thoughts. The ALP has lost the plot. They have no idea who they are, what they stand for anymore.
I think Labor spent too much energy preaching about housing crisis, cost of living crisis, interest rate crisis etc without being seen to do much to address all that. It’s ok to scare people about issues but only if you have plans that solve the problems.
At the risk of being torn apart are things out there really as bad as being made out or have a lot of people reached at mindset where they expect governments to solve all their life problems?
Thanks for the poll drop too HH.
I saw that KB has updated his tracker. 50.1% to the LNP now on his site after tonight’s two polls and the first time his tracker has dipped into negative territory for the ALP.
I’m guessing bludgertrack will trend down too when next updated.
Gosh, this is getting very tight at the tail end of this term.
.. and Kirsdarke – I don’t know what Albo can do over summer. We’re about 18-19 weeks from writs being issued. Things are getting very tight. Minority gov’t is def on the cards – has been since the weekend of June 29/30. Not too sure what can be done to turn things around.
Kirsdarke is quite right – there is a need for a new strategy. They have lost 2024 – seemingly done nothing and achieved nothing. There is a sense of drift like a third term tired government. Its not like they have done wrong unpopular things -lately not much at all.
Looks locked in to me.
I’ll give some advice for nothing. If the next inflation figure shows it’s comfortably in the band and the RBA refuses to drop interest rates. I’d give Bullock 2 options.
Lower the rate or find a new job.
There are enough economists out there who cannot understand what the RBA is waiting for to take the nuclear option and direct them to lower the interest rate.
Those people with mortgages who have been hammered for no good reason might start to think the government actually cares about them.
The 2025 election is going to be very very very ugly. Dutton has the momentum and has had it since he sold out the first nations people and their requested voice. Ugliness was fully unleashed. Dutton will have observed that Trumpism works.
The ALP are still suffering shell shock from 2019.
Dutton should be as unelectable as Trump, and we all saw how that worked out.
Albo, please, you’ll get my vote, after it is greenwashed on the way through, but please give hoi polloi something to vote for! The media is going to slaughter you for clicks whatever you do. Take them on! Puh-LEEEASSSSEEEEE!
Whose done well out of this government?
Executive women get board quotas
Professonal women get tax cuts and paid parental leave
Aged care workers got a decent pay rise
Low paid workers got a better stage 3 tax cut
Students get some hecs relief
So about 40% of the electorate has got something.
davidwh says:
Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 10:04 pm
I think Labor spent too much energy preaching about housing crisis, cost of living crisis, interest rate crisis etc without being seen to do much to address all that. It’s ok to scare people about issues but only if you have plans that solve the problems.
At the risk of being torn apart are things out there really as bad as being made out or have a lot of people reached at mindset where they expect governments to solve all their life problems?
———
It’s fucked for young people who have no inheritance. A life of struggle to even keep a roof over your head even if you have a decent paying job. The govt has to resolve this otherwise we’ll end up like the USA in a few years time, I’m surprised you even need to ask this question. Presumably you live in a very sheltered area.
Listen guys this is my last message on tonight it’s still going to be Labor minority government Peter has to contend with the with the Independence if he needs to win majority government he is also not like Trump the thing about Trump is is that Trump voters only vote for Trump and Peter doesn’t have the personality that doesn’t mean Anthony should be lazy he should actually get off his ass I think this could be a 2010 election where people like both sides are stupid or could be the Queensland election where the incumbent start getting swing back to it so I want to say it screwed both sides probably wish they were doing a little bit better in the poles
I think a leadership change is too late. All Labor has left is a scare campaign about Dutton.
Dutton has opposed every cost of living measure Labor has put forward. He will be stopping handouts and starting austerity. Dutton is not the answer.
Well the Nervous Nellies (Labor must really DO something! Find some policies!) are all up front together with the LNP Jeer Squad feeling the sap rise.
Regardless, Dutton has not got a policy to bless himself and the MOE is still alive and well.
Have been around long enough to see Labor lead 52-48 into election campaigns and still not get into government.
With the advent of the Teal lot, it is hard to see just where 18 seats are anywhere near get-able for the LNP.
When I see some policies from Dutton and check to see if he is actually loyal to his party or to someone like Gina Rhinegold will be the time to worry about Dutton and his pathetic crew.
steve davis @ #20 Sunday, November 10th, 2024 – 10:17 pm
Was Trump?
davidwh
At the risk of being torn apart are things out there really as bad as being made out or have a lot of people reached at mindset where they expect governments to solve all their life problems?
—————————-
Based on whose going out for dinner they are mostly boomers so yes a lot of people are struggling but there’s many people doing fine but things seem to be slowing down.
Bludgertrack has been updated and there is a further tick down for the ALP, now at 49.7%, with a combined swing to the LNP and PHON at nearly 5% on primaries since the last election.
Marktheballot also has the ALP sitting at 49.8%, although his last update was 4-Nov.
That’s 3 fairly astute psephologists/mathematicians who all have the ALP in negative territory.
There is no ALP majority gov’t next election on these figures (unless there is an uptick over summer).
It’s either minority gov’t or worse.
Trump isnt the answer either. Will just be the old trickledown economic shit that Conservatives have used for years. Dutton will be just the same.
Nidia 88 I think it’s going to be labour minority it’s what they deserve at the moment
peter with the start act like Trump that’s only going to make people in the Independence not vote for them
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/09/trump-victory-explanation-scrutiny
Labor could have increased social security payments above the poverty line and they chose not to. Those people typically vote Labor.
Read the article. It’s illuminating for those who take the time.
And to answer your question davidwh.
My son, his wife and their 2 children got kicked out of the place they’d been renting for 5-6 years because it was sold and the new owners wanted to jack up the rent massively.
They are currently living with his wife’s parents and have been for a significant time now.
They are struggling to find a rental in western Sydney!
As for buying. My house is worth around $1.2m. in Doonside.
This is supposed to be a low income area.
mj it has always been a struggle for young people starting out who didn’t have an inheritance to fall back on. That has always been the majority of young people.
If Mr Dutton goes full Trump, it might cost Labor its outright majority, but the risk for the coalition is that such a strategy could lock the Teals and other cross-benchers in for second terms. Labor should therefore be looking at policies which will encourage the Teals to support (or at least not bring down) a minority Labor government. That would likely require Labor to support a lot of the (sensible) proposals for better governance which the Teals have put forward. And to support fixing the failed NACC model. None of which would be bad for the country.
On the issue of the current government just occupying the crease, has anyone seen a government response to the Final Report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters into the 2022 election? That Report came out almost 12 months ago, and there’s nothing showing up on the Inquiry home page. Pretty slack, in my opinion. (The government response to the Committee’s Interim Report was pure waffle, neither accepting nor rejecting any of the recommendations.) It’s looking pretty likely now that the Committee’s work will turn out to have been nothing but a waste of time, money and effort.
Inflation in Perth said ABS last week is 6%.In vic/nsw 3%.
To keep their seats labor has billions of inflation causing dollars going into WA no way the Reserve bank is going to cut rates as it also knows WA is an export economy and all those interest rate cuts around the world will soon kick in for demand for WA goods.Rental crisis also driving up inflation.
Bottom line me thinks labor brought too many students in etc and cannot get rid of them denied Aussies interest rate cut/s and now a two speed inflation debacle kicking in.
Thanks Quentin, and also thanks for taking the time to drop by with your comments. I think you’re great, and also c@t and Fess and Mick Quinlivan and many others have a good regard for your perspective. They made some nice comments on the recent US & QLD blogs.
What do you think Albo needs to do. ie: Like what Kirsdarke said upthread – something needs to happen, and quickly. Does Albo need to spend summer campaigning, or perhaps do a Steven Miles and go for broke. Steven Miles salvaged the furniture in QLD (to an extent). Some posters don’t so much want Albo salvaging the furniture, they want more the hole in the Titanic plugged. Obviously a 40% primary on Newspoll for the LNP is a serious figure.
What do you think Albo needs to do? 20 weeks or so before writs are issued. Your thoughts? Remember 33% primary for the ALP isn’t bad either.
Once we have been delivered to the Devil, the blind Albanese supporters will arrogantly refuse to hang their heads in shame with their what a great misunderstood government naive beliefs after the sky falls fell in.
Or maybe they’ll watch as Dutton walks into the Lodge and spend the next three years posting how it was all Bandt’s fault.
Albanese, the worst throw everything away timid do nothing believe in nothing maybe next time end of anyone ever believing that Labor might make a difference failure.
Once we have been delivered to the Devil, the blind Albanese supporters will arrogantly refuse to hang their heads in shame with their what a great misunderstood government naive beliefs after the sky fell in. Or maybe they’ll watch as Dutton walks into the Lodge and spend the next three years posting how it was all Bandt’s fault. Albanese, the worst throw everything away timid do nothing believe in nothing maybe next time end of anyone ever believing that Labor might make a difference failure.
This is the price of the capitalist society that has been created over decades around the world. Australia is no different. It’s all great until it doesn’t work for the individual then it is all wrong. Big billionaires at the top whilst the others become slaves again trying to keep up with the system. Until this radically changes then there’s no hope for future generations. Its not going to change anytime soon that’s for sure.
Aqualung agree that’s tough for your family. Sydney is a difficult place for young people starting out.
Davidwh it’s totally next level struggle now that is incomparable to previous generations. I lived in a single parent household growing up in the 90’s and my Mum on an average wage bought 2 properties and could have easily afforded a third, we would be screwed if we were growing up now. I felt like I struggled buying relatively cheap (390k) ex state housing in Perth 6 years ago which is a fraction of Sydney prices and I had some parental help which saved me a ton on interest payments. Many people have it much worse than me.
“Sydney is a difficult place for young people starting out.”
Unless they have a big Mum and Dad bank.
“ I think a leadership change is too late. All Labor has left is a scare campaign about Dutton”
Lars Von Trier, and that’s a courageous vision for the future.
Albanese doing a Biden. Should have apologised for being a weak useless failure and left the building some time ago.
Probably too late now.
Nidia 88 yeah thanks for the comments I’m not gonna be constantly browsing on pole budget anymore because some of the people really annoy me except for you and that you so if you want my opinion I still figured it’s gonna be a labor minority anything could happen now if Peter does act like Trump well the problem Peters he’s not a outside a Trump work because he was an outsider Pete is not and Peter has to deal with the Independence that are in the former Liberal seats so that’s one that Anthony Albanese has going for him the album one is that it hasn’t been that bad for him I honestly think it’s probably gonna be Labor and already liberals will probably get some seats back but I also think that by campaign time Peter is not the person like take criticism you’ll probably say something really stupid so I don’t think it’s all doing doom and gloom play but I don’t also think it’s all hope said unicorns for the Liberal Party
davidwh,
‘At the risk of being torn apart are things out there really as bad as being made out or have a lot of people reached at mindset where they expect governments to solve all their life problems?”
Everyone has had a bit of a squeeze on groceries and services, but I think it’s mainly housing costs that are differentiating the experience for the “haves” and “have nots”.
To elaborate, at my kids’ school (in Brisbane), you can perceive the line between those who bought a house before the COVID price spike and those that didn’t. In the large, those that already owned a property are fine. Pub on Friday, new car, Pearl Jam tickets, no problem.
Those that bought after the spike then got hit by interest rates going up, or are renting, are up against it. And its feels like a lottery they didn’t choose to enter.
Government is not business and business is not government, the reasons referred to at the conclusion of the last thread
Both government and business carry debt, and increasing debt, time in memorial
In regards business (and individuals) this is the reason we have Share Indices and the reasons we have banks (where I was employed across my working career lending to business)
Without borrowers we would have no banks – noting that in the normal course Companies are perpetual and governments are perpetual – unlike human beings Companies can fail. Governments do not fail and that is a difference, Companies required to trade at profit including to pay Shareholders for lending money to the Company So a brief summary- refer earlier
The question on polling is Independents hold Seats, Seats the LNP needs to reclaim to regain government
That apart, the course to even minority government for the Coalition of the Liberal Party and the National Party is how?
By embracing the so called “Teals”, the Greens, Katter, Wilkie, any Hanson or Palmer representatives elected?
It would appear that IF the outcome is minority government (and I would not concede that), the ALP has the pathways to minority government not available to the LNP
Noting the margin of error in polling and that the government continue to govern so unlike the Coalition not electioneering (including by undermining minus alternatives apart from nuclear and withdrawing accrued superannuation to buy a home – where I put a narrative on the prior thread re the so called “housing crisis” and the evading of this crisis since 2000 being other crisis being sub prime lending and a pandemic which saw interest rates at unprecedented levels including with a 0 in front of the Cash Rate)
So we will see what an election campaign delivers, both Leaders on the hustings
To me the reason for Trump is that he has been media for the last 10 years from Murdoch to Musk to Trump himself so any cynicism for media in Australia where across Murdoch, Stokes, 9 Entertainment and the USA owned 10 are Tory aligned, is different in Australia (I would hope!)
I trust Australians are not led by media – and the financial travails of media companies would appear to confirm this, they are losing advertising revenue and sacking staff for a reason
The government, being the government, will respond to perceptions noting the presence of (reducing) inflation as a constriction to buying votes on both sides (refer Bullock before Estimates last week and a positive for government- if reported)
And just to add on cost of living, one of my sons has motor vehicle dealerships – and continues to sell cars at record numbers – and very expensive cars at that, majority financed
So what does this tell us?
Dandy Murray thanks for that information. At my age we are obviously isolated from the problems young people today have in getting a start in life. But it would be wrong to say that youngsters starting out in the late 60’s early 70’s, my era, didn’t face similar challenges.
I think it’s been underestimated just how significant it was that Sky News became free-to-air in rural-regional areas of Australia.
I saw it happen to my own grandmother before she died, she was something of a centre-right Menzies-Fraser-Howard voter beforehand, to the point that she started screaming at the TV whenever Bill Shorten or any other leftist politician she’d become programmed to hate viscerally appeared because she watched Sky News religiously after it became available as a channel on her digital TV.
And I’ve seen it happen with other people her age in my community, they just have the wrinkles ironed out in their brains until they become so reptilian that they hiss and snarl slurs at anything political to the left of Genghis Khan.
And Labor’s strategy for this has been to do nothing. Welp, let’s see how well that decision does them next year.
Kirsdarke gold!
The best hope for Albanese will be that Trump goes troppo very quickly…
He’s got years worth of stupid ready to unleash. The scales will tip when everyone realises that the libs want to be just like the republicans even more than they currently are…
The rate cuts Labor were hoping to happen before the election will not happen – the market is priced in for rate cuts in June next year.
Albo may as well start spending since there is no longer a reason to appease the RBA:
Hip pocket policy: Increase medicare rebates
No brainer labor spending policy, maybe. The coalition will naturally oppose this so they can fire up a real mediscare, talk about how the libs want to KILL bulk billing forever. If there is budget to spare maybe even throw in dental. I would like to see then equalise NDIS and medicare service prices but they probably won’t do this given its turning into a jobs and stimulus program rather than a disability program.
Populist policy: Ban private equity from buying homes
This would catch the greens off guard, and they could really fire up the rhetoric on this one. Australians are PISSED about cost of living and want their politicians to be pissed and to fight for them. Albo could easily fire up the rhetoric on this one and say that private equity is buying up all our homes and want to force us to be renters for our wholes lives etc. This avoid the electoral poison of messing with discounts and credits, while still letting them be perceived as taking bold housing action and giving the finger to the corporate banking world aussies hate right now. This would also exploit the major weakness in the greens housing policies, they try to appeal and make things easier for renters – but people don’t want to rent – they want to own homes!
Thanks Quentin.
Peter Dutton probably won’t (or can’t) “do a Trump” because it doesn’t really work in Oz because of mandatory voting.
The U.S. is different in that the Presidential candidates have to galvanise their supporters to get them to the ballot box. So they do stunts like dancing to YMCA songs etc etc, or engage in extreme rhetoric.
Australians just don’t like high level rhetoric. It’s not in our DNA.
Don’t let other posters on this site annoy you either as everyone is entitled to their say, including you.
You keep dropping a line any time. You’re always a good read!
N88 yes thanks for the common and I am gonna reply bit we don’t know where the 40% of the votes could be for the lmp it could be in very safe seats for the Liberal Party now the good users every easy has the holidays to get his s*** together Peter’s problem is that he has to campaign and if he screws up a couple of times well everybody at the moment it could be worse seriously I thought it’d be at least how it’s going at the moment 55 to 44 to Liberals
N88 oh I know people are titled to their opinion it’s just there’s a difference between Labour’s doomed or Liberals are gonna roll we’re at the moment the sides a pointing that it’s both for you suck we’re gonna be voting for more independence and if the Red Bridge poll in Western Australia’s true then I think Labor might be doing well in that part which it said it was 54 to 46 to labour so it could be Peter’s doing very good and Queensland and it’s not doing well in other areas
Saying the votes could be concentrated in already lib seats is pure copium, Labor are going to LOSE if they don’t take bold action. Small target worked in 2022 when people were sick of Morrison, but people have wanted BOLD cost of living and housing action for YEARS now and they just see albo as doing nothing.