Click here for full display of Queensland state election results.
Friday evening
Another seat has come on to the radar (I am consistently indebted here to comments thread contributors, as I really only have about half-an-hour or so a day to devote to analysing the results at present) in the shape of Aspley, which has joined neighbouring Pine Rivers in trending in Labor’s favour in late counting. This is in fact part of a broader trend, evident to those who have been following the statewide two-party preferred estimate on my results entry page, where the LNP’s two-party lead exceeded 54-46 after the pre-poll voting centres had finished reporting on Sunday, but has since wound back to 53.5-46.5. This is mostly down to absent election day votes, which have recorded fairly modest swings for no obvious reason I can think of.
The situation is Aspley is that the late reporting votes have collectively been only slightly harmful to Labor, whereas projections based on election day and early voting results on Saturday and Sunday presumed they would be more substantially so. Based on how preferences seemed to be flowing when the ECQ was conducting a two-candidate preferred count, I only get to an LNP winning margin of 62 votes. However, I presume only late-arriving postals remain, and this will assuredly favour the LNP. Labor’s hope is that the preferences of late reporting votes were more favourable than election day and early votes.
That said, my expectation that only postal votes remain keeps getting confounded in South Brisbane, the one count I’m monitoring closely: today’s counting saw the addition of 210 absent early votes, 203 absent election day votes, 292 in-person declaration votes and only 109 postals. These were collectively unhelpful for the Greens, who need the LNP to finish ahead of Labor: 270 of the votes counted today were for Labor and 231 LNP, together with 251 for the Greens and 37 for One Nation.
Thursday evening
Today’s counting from South Brisbane saw the LNP catch up 95 votes on Labor through absent early votes, and fall back 19 on in person declaration votes and one on postals. I’m not sure if there’s any more to come in the way of absents, but I believe there will be around 900 postals which should narrow a gap that currently sits at 696 to around 600. The LNP would then need their share of One Nation preferences to be around 50% higher than Labor’s out of a three-way split inclusive of the Greens. As noted below, the difference in 2020 in this seat was 44%. For those of you who have just joined us, the issue here is that Labor wins the seat if they make the final count ahead of the LNP, and the Greens do if they don’t. We presumably won’t know the answer until the full distribution of preferences, which will presumably be late next week.
Wednesday evening
What I had previously rated the slim prospect of Labor getting over the line in Pine Rivers might yet come to pass – indeed, my own results system is calling it for them, but this is based on very rosy assumptions for Labor about how late postals will behave. The ABC also projects a Labor lead, in their case of 50.4-49.6. The ECQ’s way of doing things is not at all conducive to projecting results late in the count – it stops conducting its notional two-preference count and, still more confoundingly, records its initial and check count results for the primary vote separately. I have just switched over from the former to the latter in my results display, which is important in the case of Pine Rivers since a number of corrections in the check count were substantially to Labor’s advantage. However, it also means a lot of results, particularly of absent votes, that were in my system before are not there now, and will not return to it until the check count catches up with them.
Another late turn in counting is that Mirani now looks like going to the LNP rather than One Nation-turned-Katter’s Australian Party member Stephen Andrew, who has done distinctly badly on absent and to a lesser extent postal votes.
The Greens’ chances in South Brisbane took a hit yesterday with the addition of further absent election day results, which my assessment from yesterday had not accounted for. These were evidently from a Labor-friendly area, with 321 (35.9%) of the newly added batch being cast for for Labor and 241 (27.0%) for the LNP, which accordingly widens the gap the LNP will need to close on postals if Labor is to drop out and the Greens are to win the seat.
Tuesday evening
Belated recognition of what’s been evident to comments thread denizens, that the Greens’ defeat in South Brisbane is not indeed an accomplished fact owing to the outside chance that Labor will not make the final count. With four candidates in the count, One Nation are a very distant last on 984 votes, and Labor leads the LNP 9730 to 9043. The two variables in the equation are the extent to which that gap will narrow on last postals and in person declaration votes, and whether One Nation preferences will flow to the LNP strongly enough to close it altogether.
My highball estimate of the number of outstanding postals is 1300, which will put the lead at about 10120 to 9580 if they behave the way postals have to this point, with One Nation on about 1030. When One Nation was excluded in the seat in 2020, 62% of their votes went to the LNP, 18% to Labor and the balance to the Greens. Applying that to the above will close the gap between Labor and the LNP to barely more than 100.
In person declaration votes are less likely to be helpful to the Greens – of 688 formal votes in 2020, 215 were for Labor (31.25%) and only 107 for the LNP (15.55%), compared with respective overall vote shares of 34.42% and 22.84%. The situation is nonetheless worth monitoring, and will be the focus of whatever further updates I provide over the coming week or so.
Sunday evening
Counting today caught up with the incomplete early voting centres, leaving three consequential categories of vote type unaccounted for: absent early votes, absent election day votes, and around a quarter to a third of the postals which will trickle in between now and the cut-off point next Wednesday. My results system isn’t giving 18 seats away, but it rather errs on the conservative side in late counting. Only where the projected margin is inside 1% do I reckon the late counting to be worth following in detail, though a surprise may well emerge somewhere or other.
That means Maryborough, Pine Rivers and Pumicestone, all with the LNP ahead by respective margins of 1.0%, 0.4% and 0.7%. As will shortly be explained, even here the odds are fairly substantially against a late reversal. Leaving them out of the equation gives the LNP 50 seats, Labor 34, Katter’s Australian Party four, the Greens one, independent one and three in doubt. To deal with the latter in turn:
Maryborough. If 2020 is any guide, there should be a swag of over 5000 absent early votes here, giving Labor at least some hope of closing a gap that currently stands at 14903 to 14088, a deficit of 815. The surprise would be considerable though, as they only broke 54-46 Labor’s way in 2020, compared with nearly 62-38 overall. Absent election day votes were more favourable to Labor, though below par overall, and there should be less than 1000 of them. Then there’s a further 2000 postals that will surely favour the LNP, so this probably won’t stay on the watch list for long.
Pine Rivers. The LNP leads 14488 to 14894, or by 406, to which upwards of 2000 outstanding postals should add around 200. There should be around 2000 absent early votes and 1300 absent election day votes, which collectively scored similarly to the overall result in 2020.
Pumicestone. Here the LNP lead is a formidable 962, or 14916 to 13954. My system is not giving this away because absent early and absent election day votes, of which there should respectively be around 5000 and 1000, broke around 59-41 in their favour in 2020, compared with 55-45 overall. However, that suggests a Labor gain of only around 300, and even that should be partly offset by around 2500 late-arriving postals favouring the LNP.
Saturday evening
After what initially looked like a remarkably weak result for the Liberal National Party early in the evening, the Queensland election in many ways played to script, once late-reporting pre-poll votes were shown to have swung harder than votes cast on election day. The LNP appears headed for a modest majority in its own right, built largely on a long-anticipated regional backlash against Labor that encompassed all three Townsville seats, the Cairns and Cape York Peninsula seats of Barron River, Mulgrave and Cook, and further northern Queensland losses in Keppel, Mackay and likely Rockhampton.
Labor perhaps did better than expected in regional seats further south, potentially pulling off an upset win in Bundaberg. However, they appear likely to lose Hervey Bay, Caloundra, Nicklin and Maryborough, whose retiree-heavy population delivered the party rare victories in 2020. However, my results system is not giving any Labor seats away in Brisbane, although they are behind the eight-ball in Aspley, Pine Rivers, Pumicestone, Redlands and, somewhat surprisingly, Capalaba. Labor has its nose in front in its only Gold Coast seat, Gaven, and will more than likely recover its by-election loss of Ipswich West.
It was a disappointing night for the minor players, particularly for the Greens, who far from expanding their inner urban footprint have been defeated in South Brisbane, where they were not granted a repeat of the LNP’s decision to preference them ahead of Labor in 2020, and fell well short in their other target seats, leaving them only with Maiwar. Talk of Katter’s Australian Party sweeping all before it proved off the mark, although they retain their firm grip on Traeger, Hill and Hinchinbrook. Stephen Andrew, who defected to the party from One Nation, is fighting off a challenge from the LNP in Mirani. One Nation emerged empty-handed, and Sandy Bolton in Noosa remains the parliament’s only independent.
This post will be progressively updated over the coming days on late counting in seats in doubt, of which there are a good many. Quite a few pre-polling centres had yet to report as of the close last night, so we should see large numbers added to the count today.
https://theunaustralian.net/2024/10/29/sky-news-says-lnps-smaller-than-expected-win-in-qld-proof-the-party-needs-to-move-further-right/
ABC has now Macalister as a Labor retain.
Per Macalister, that will be an interesting preference flow too.
(Located southern suburbs of Brisbane around Logan, for non QLD’ers).
Raw Primaries as of this morning:
* ALP 12618
* LNP 11268
* PHON 2080
* GRN 2045
* Cannabis 1373
* FF 1302
* Family First will get distributed first, most of which will go to the LNP, leaving the LNP at No.2.
* Cannabis is next, with a strong flow most likely to the Greens, pushing them to No.3.
* PHON is next, pushing the LNP to No.1
* Will come down to the Green preference flow. Their traditional flow is 86% to Labor, however in the recent NT election, both Port Darwin & Namatjira, had a 66% flow to Labor when the Greens came in third.
Anyway, possibly a mute point, as AG has mentioned in his summary that he is basing has calculations on the actual preference flow – which I assume he’s getting from scrutineers.
This will be another interesting preference flow. Handy to know what Greens voters are actually doing in the privacy of the ballot box, especially for our upcoming Fed election.
QLD State labor now have at least four years to think and regret their soft on crime policy.
Had a bit of a look at Pine Rivers (middle northern suburbs of Brisbane).
Current count (not final count):
* LNP 14109
* ALP 12901 (ABC has this tally at 13253, however WB has more total votes tallied at 34577 overall)
* GRN 3084
* PHON 2253
* AJ 923
Keep in mind I’m aware there is a discrepancy on the ALP primary & I’m using WB’s figures as he has tallied more votes cast overall)
Animals will go first, most of which will go to the Greens, leaving the Greens at No.3
Next is PHON, which will boost the primary lead of the LNP.
Greens distribution will only need to go at about 68-70% to Labor, which it will.
So yes, looking like an ALP retain.
A significant portion of this seat falls within the boundaries of Longman & Dickson (Dutton’s seat).
Interesting to watch how the Green preferences play out again. ie: The usual 86%, or way lower.
The differences in Pine Rivers are because of numerous counting issues as documented on my page
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/10/queensland-2024-postcount.html
The ABC tallies match the Official First Preference count which has been corrected for mistakes caught during checking. The reason the ABC tally is lower is that in one booth the overall total was 100 votes too high as a result of the Liberal tally being 100 higher than it should have been, ie these 100 votes did not exist.
Thanks KB.
Seems like there has been a couple of counting issues, though I suppose quite normal.
I saw your comments re: Gaven. 200 Informals allocated to Labor!
I’m keeping an eye more on the Green pref flows. ie: will it come in at around 86%, or more like the NT.
If it’s like the NT, it’s quite possible that the polls being published recently are actually underestimating the LNP 2PP. That is the Federal polls which have been issued since late August.
Anyway, as usual I’m getting way way ahead of things. Will wait until the count is done for QLD.
Antony has some stats on Green preference flows, statewide the Greens flow is estimated at 80.7%. I believe this is from incomplete ECQ sampling on the night. It will vary by seat and typically the flow is lower where the vote is lower.
https://antonygreen.com.au/qld2024-preference-flows-and-vote-by-type-compared-to-2020/
The preference flows for Pine Rivers published by the ECQ are –
Greens ALP 82.4% LNP 17.6%
One Nation ALP 24.6 LNP 75.4%
Animal Justice ALP 54.7% LNP 45.3%
Those flows are for polling places, and within district pre-polls and Postal votes counted on Saturday night.
Noted, and note also very little change from the 2020 flows.
I was speculating more on the inner Darwin results being replicated in inner Brisbane, but yes I shall stick to the actual facts as they stand today.
Gosh I feel like a complete minion all of a sudden.
I’m assuming that is the real Antony Green and not a poster casually using such a brand name.
There have been some of PB’s best posters on this series of threads, but to get some of Australia’s big guns added to the mix is fantastic.
Thanks, and thanks for the clarity gents. Appreciate your time.
Nadia : you have a fantastic grasp of this kind of stuff very impressive!!! And great to see AG and KB join in , lovin’ it!!!
I’m likewise a bit starstruck.
LNP now ahead of KAP in Mirani.
Courier Mail: “TV reporter turned political hopeful Bianca Stone has conceded defeat in the Gold Coast seat of Gaven, phoning Labor’s former minister Meaghan Scanlon after an unsuccessful run for the LNP.”
Things are firming up to 53-35. Nice and neat numbers.
Losing Mirani would certainly make it a pretty disappointing campaign for Katter. I don’t think the LNP had high expectations. It’s a very heterogeneous seat and was bouncing around all over the place on Saturday night, and remains very close. I wouldn’t be game to guess which way it’s likely to go.
It would be nice if Katter gave himself a Kattering.
So def no “clean sweep” for the LNP in the Goldie.
ALP retained Gaven on a new margin of 0.7%.
Sth Brisbane – gosh, that is tight. Updated a couple of mins ago, 74.6% counted.
* GRN 10608
* ALP 9704
* LNP 9056
* PHON 993
The PHON preferences flowing (as reported upthread for a different seat – Pine Rivers)
24.6% to the ALP, 75.4% to the LNP.
To me it looks like the LNP just needs to boost their primary a bit, say come within 550 to 600 of 2nd place. It’s very very close though.
Edit: LNP needs about 83% of PHON preferences, so this seat should be a Labor gain, on these figures.
Hollow win for Labor in S.B., if it is a win.
Still hasn’t nailed 2nd placing after 4 days counting, LNP didn’t man at least one booth, were they even trying?
—————————-
But they’re retaking Griffith?
Predictions for Griffith.
Most likely: Greens returned
Less likely: LNP win
Unlikely: ALP to make the 2CP
“Losing Mirani would certainly make it a pretty disappointing campaign for Katter. I don’t think the LNP had high expectations. It’s a very heterogeneous seat and was bouncing around all over the place on Saturday night, and remains very close. I wouldn’t be game to guess which way it’s likely to go.”
@The Wombat
I know some who lived in the electorate of Condamine when Ray Hopper swapped from LNP to KAP. Hopper ended up letting his son contest Condamine and he contested Nanango for KAP but was defeated. He suggested even if Hopper had recontested Condamine he would have been defeated. The public get cynical with politician’s swapping parties. The fact Stephen Andrew swapped parties when the LNP’S vote was rising wouldn’t have helped either.
Retaining Gaven is good for the ALP, at least one seat on the Gold/Sunshine coasts, and Megan Scanlon is seen by a few as a future leader.
If Labor stays ahead in Pine Rivers, that gets them to 34 seats, and if they won South Brisbane, that’d be 35 seats.
Overall guys and girls, what a pleasure to be posting in the same thread as the legendary Antony Green, quite a hero of mine, because I’m a bloke in my 50s and I’ve watched ABC election night telecasts for as long as I can remember, and Antony’s always been a part of those, since 1993 if my memory is correct. I’m just an amateur psephologist, so to get the expert wisdom onf Antony Green and Kevin Bonham and William Bowe, our brilliant moderator – always a privilege!
And just as good chatting with good people here like Nadia and Princeplanet and many others. In contrast, I dread to think how much worse the U.S election threads will get over the next 7 days and beyond.
As for Griffith federally – I think Max Chandler-Mather, due to the huge media profile he has, will be almost odds on to retain it in 2025.
Labor apparently is rather confident about the federal seat of Brisbane – have they yet preselected a candidate? Madonna Jarrrett was the candidate in 2022.
Yes was a bit of a surprise visit from KB & AG.
Anyway, with 5 seats to go, this site is pretty much wrapping up and will drop down into the PB archives.
Hopefully WB may consider creating a “Fed Election in QLD” thread next year and get these posters back onto the one thread & we can go through the 30 divisions in a likewise thorough manner.
Anyway, over to the US election I suppose. I haven’t even looked at the US thread for a fortnight. May have a quick look this evening.
Catch up for Newspoll (and hopefully the Resolve poll) on Sunday evening.
Nadia it ain’t over until Pumicestone is shown as LNP win.
Yes, you’re right davidwh.
Got to see where those Green preferences flow after banging on about it up thread.
At the last Fed election across Australia, they flowed about 86.7% to the ALP.
In our smallest Territory and 3rd largest state, that hasn’t quite been the case.
I can’t make sense of hare clark (in the A.C.T.) so I won’t even go there.
What I’m saying is that I think the published 2PP’s, coming out since late August, may be slightly underestimating the LNP 2PP.
Anyway, for a different thread and time I suppose.
Still a bit of suspense over South Brisbane and Mirani, so more fun to be had.
Davidwh – I don’t think you need to worry about Pumicestone, that is a LNP gain in my opinion. You and I would disagree politically, but I totally respect your comments, my best mate at school is a dyed in the wool Liberal but that has never ruined our friendship.
Ditto in relation to you mate.
Nadia, don’t look at the US election thread. Save yourself while there’s still time. And then there’s the issue most experts are predicting Trump to win the electoral college.
I’m stocking up for the apocalypse.
Flip!
Thanks Democracy Sausage the respect goes both ways.
The Wombat – if Trump wins next week, the other thread will go apeshit!
davidwh – full respect mate, definitely. You’re up for a beer or two like me too, all good.
Guys, a bad election for both the Greens(even if at best they retain the 2 seats they held before) and the Katter Party – so much for the predictions before Saturday that they could pick up Keppel and Mirani.
Federally, when Bob Katter finally retires, that seat of his will be up for grabs, surely
DS : I said to my brother a couple of weeks ago that if I had to pick who I’d prefer to win between Qld Labor and Kamala Harris I’d pick Kamala. Of course I’d have liked both to get up but the idea of Trump is unthinkable. I wish the LNP all the best in government and Crisifulli is making the right noises to start with but we shall see how he goes on crime and ramping. One things for the sure the courier mails front pages are in for a change.
… he Katter Party – so much for the predictions before Saturday that they could pick up Keppel and Mirani.
Federally, when Bob Katter finally retires, that seat of his will be up for grabs, surely
The prediction on Mirani is looking likely, KAP didn’t run in Keppel, Ashby did for ON.
From The Tally Room
One Nation primary vote in Keppel and place on first preferences:
* Cawarral: 36.1%, 1st
* Emu Park: 28.1%, 3rd
* Farnborough: 32.8%, 2nd
* Frenchville: 20.3%, 3rd
* Glenmore: 18.3%, 3rd
* Keppel Sands: 25.5%, 3rd
* Lakes Creek: 34.4%, 1st
* Mount Archer: 19.5%, 3rd
* Norman Gardens: 15.0%, 3rd
* Norman Gardens EVC: 21.5%, 3rd
* Parkhurst: 25.4%, equal 2nd
* Taranganba: 26.4%, 2nd
* The Caves: 28.4%, 2nd
* Yeppoon: 32.1%, 2nd
* Yeppoon EVC: 29.3%, 2nd
Norman Gardens, Frenchville and Glenmore are big North Rockhampton booths, that’s where Ashby fell short, Emu Park is toffy compared to Yeppoon, Lakes Creek and Cawarral are badlands.
Overall, One Nation placed well everywhere.
——————————————–
Bob Katter Sr retired in 1990 [as a National] Labor won it back that year.
Katter Jr won it off Labor in 1993.
When he does retire, it will be a Labor seat, LNP’s best bet is to announce early and blast him out.
I would like to put my thoughts in too about this particular series of threads on the QLD election.
I’ve only been on the site about 3 months, and have found the lot of you to be so calm and methodical, with no hysteria and very much “matter of fact” posters. I gather the majority of you are Queenslanders and you seem to chug along to your own drumbeat together. It’s good to see, and i wish other parts of Australia could act the way you guys do. It’s probably why Australia has a high regard for Qld. I live in Victoria, but i feel like i’m a continent away.
Per the “US thread”. I’m a left winger who naturally supports Harris but i have never seen anything more toxic online before. I was on the site nadia, when you were smashed 2 weeks ago. Meher baba and centre were smashed last week and today andrew earlwood was referred to as a ‘troll’ at 1.21pm. Earlwood is probably the last poster any of us would tangle with.
In contrast to the QLD threads, i can only say, don’t go to the US thread.
Cheers to you all, and note you Queenslanders piqued the interest of both Antony Green and Kevin Bonham. Reflection on you posters.
Thanks all for the updates on South Brisbane.
And its definately go Amy and not “go Pauline”.
Quick edit: Apologies if i’ve ever been rude to any of you in the past. Sometimes the main thread raises heckles.
Vlad: my sentiments exactly too, well said! We’ve got a good bunch of sensible, intelligent people in here, and as the Qld thread won’t be of much use in the next day or so, I hope we can keep this sort of informed discussion going in the open threads at least.
I agree the U.S Presidential election threads are toxic, I dip my toes in there now and then, but it’s not for the fainted heart, and to be fair there are hard core Harris supporters as much as there are hard core Trumpers/MAGAs. Like you, Princeplanet, I’d like Harris to win too, because Trump I find so odious, but Aussies don’t get a vote in it, is it worth getting so obsessed and pent up about an election we can’t influence?
Crisafulli will have a good working majority, that’s all you need in Qld with only one chamber in state parliament. I wish him and his government well, even though if I lived in the Sunshine State, I would have voted for Steven Miles and Labor. Anyway, I totally respect conservatives like davidwh – who is a top bloke and great regular on Poll Bludger, I learnt long ago that those on the other side of politics to me are more often than not good people, and not everyone on the Labor side is that great.
I read in the next LNP ministry Tim Nicholls or Christian Rowan could get health. The idea was to move Nicholls to health and Laura Gerber to Attorney-General. That does mean moving Ros Bates to another portfolio. Bates has been long rumoured she won’t get health. Also there is a expectation more women in the cabinet and atleast another minster from North Queensland it was reported.
Vlad, like I said to Aqualung the other day.
Get yourself up to Cairns in FNQ.
You’ll be surrounded by lots of calm, friendly Queenslanders.
I’m not there yet but will be in a year or so, back to my old home town to die where I belong.
I might do that been there. I can’t just now but i do like Qld. I’ve been really impressed with the way the Queenslanders have handled this thread. They are good people/posters and none of them seem to overact to stuff.
QLD seems to have it own drumbeat.
Apologies to you too Been There, if i’ve ever given you a hard time on the site. Sometimes the main thread gets a bit fired up, and it’s hard to differentiate these good posters when they are all mixed up on the main thread.
Latest on Pumicestone for davidwh – the LNP has a 523 vote lead, probably time for the ABC to call it as a certain LNP pickup from Labor.
Labor is ahead in Pine Rivers by almost 300 votes, and about 200 votes behind in Aspley.
My recollection (not totally reliable) is that the ABC have had their predicted ALP vote for Pine Rivers at 50.3% throughout the day, and they now show it as 50.4% with 87.1% counted
All good Vlad!
Consider yourself an honorary Queenslander!
Vlad 6.46pm
Nice post. Completely concur re US thread, hence why I’ve left it for good – better late than never, I decided in the end. Hysteria, far-left bullies and fantasy / conspiracy are the norm there, sadly.
Let’s keep Qld threads good and on psephology.
Fascinated how Mirani is currently given as LNP gain by PB with 55% or so yet Katter is currently in the lead.
Extremely well done Meaghan Scanlon for being reelected in the seat of Gaven, the only Labor member on the Goldie. She’s smart, a good local member & in my view, is future leadership material. I don’t feel lonely now, located as I am in a sea of Tory & Country party members. The Goldie is replete with toffs & real estate agents. Labor should change the rules on CGT & negative gearing. That’ll bring them down a peg or two. Not that I’m into class-warfare(?).
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-30/bianca-stone-concedes-defeat-to-meaghan-scanlon-gaven/104536878
BTSays according to the ABC Kelly is now leading by 383 votes.
Democracy Sausage thanks for the Pumicestone update.
We are probably coming to the end of keeping close tabs on this thread. Just want to thank William who always does an excellent job with these election threads.
I agree with the sentiments expressed by others. It has been a pleasure posting on the QLD threads.
Davidwh
Thanks. I knew PB would be basing it on some intel with that kind of discrepancy, but obviously it’s not visible or discussed in the article above. . . yet.
Green preferences to ALP vs LNP have long been somewhat weaker in Queensland state elections cf Aus federal elections. Qld federal is currently in between. I wouldn’t take the flows in NT and Qld as signifying anything, eg in Qld state the flow is not weaker than 2020.
Kevin thanks for your updates and information. It is very much appreciated.
BTSays apparently KAP are doing badly with pre polls and absentee votes in both Mulgrave and Mirani.