With a week to go, yesterday’s Courier-Mail reported a YouGov poll found Labor in an improved position compared with the last such poll in July, while still heading for defeat. Conducted from last Thursday through to Wednesday, the poll credited the Liberal National Party with a two-party lead of 55-45, in from 57-43, from primary votes of Labor 31% (up five), LNP 41% (down two), Greens 11% (down three) and One Nation 11% (down two). Steven Miles has also all but eliminated a substantial deficit on preferred premier, with David Crisafulli’s lead in from 40-27 to 37-36. Piecing together information from the report and an accompanying line chart, it looks like Miles is up three on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval to 44%, while Crisafulli is down two to 38% and up nine to 32%.
The poll helpfully includes breakdowns into five broadly defined regions, with caution due for the small sub-samples this produces from an overall sample of 1503. Based on my own assumptions as to how seats might have been characterised, this suggests Labor stands to lose the election in “regional”, which an accompanying map suggests encompasses the coast north of the Sunshine Coast (plus, I’ve assumed, Toowoomba), and “outer metro”, from what I calculate as swings of around 13% and 9% respectively. Conversely, the poll finds Labor holding steady on two-party preferred terms in “inner metro”, although it has lost about three points to the Greens. Labor faces swings of 3% to 4% in “coastal” (meaning the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast”) and “rural”, where it has little existing support to lose. While I would treat the result with caution, the numbers for “rural” suggest Katter’s Australian Party is shedding support to both the LNP and One Nation.
On top of its YouGov poll, Courier-Mail conducted an “exit poll” on Tuesday targeting 100 voters apiece at early voting centres in ten key electorates. While the scientific precision of the exercise might be doubted, the results were nonetheless striking in showing Labor down by between 4% (in McConnel) and 22% (in Rockhampton, where it may be losing votes to independent Margaret Strelow). Still more remarkably, the LNP was up by between 9% and 27%, excluding an outlier result for Cairns. There was little encouragement for the Greens in its target seats of McConnel and Greenslopes, which would have been won by the LNP on the numbers published, though the margins of error are naturally very wide. Comparing like for like (which the Courier-Mail’s tables didn’t do), Labor was down 13 points on 2020 and the LNP up 15, with the Greens down two and One Nation and Katter’s Australian Party little changed.
The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column relates “concern mounting about seats in Brisbane’s greater south” from Labor sources, but optimism about Meaghan Scanlon’s chances of retaining Gaven, the one seat Labor holds on the Gold Coast. Hayden Johnson of the Courier Mail says both sides expect Labor to hold out against the regional tide in the seat of Cairns, and that “some in Labor” consider Aspley in Brisbane’s inner north, where its margin is 5.2%, to be “50-50”.
Thanks Leroy! Vastly different from the eyebrow raising exit poll conducted by the courier mail on the 14th-15th. A week is certainly a long time in politics.
I think a swing back to Labor is to be expected as voters realise the implications of the religious takeover of the LNP. The swing won’t be large enough to prevent a LNP win but another one term government is very likely.
Fascinating stuff. With only a week to go, the government actually managing to cling to power is surely too much to hope for, but this is certainly looking like quite the turnaround from the annihilation we seemed to be facing a month or two ago.
If I were the lnp I would not like to rely on the kap for support.
Also remember if there 1s a
hung parliament with Bob Katter returned maybe this won’t help the federal libs and nats if his son is having difficulties with the Qld branch.
If the swing is only 5% then the outer suburban tidal wave probably won’t occur. So the contest will.be over those seats held up to 10% with those from roughly 6% upwards reasonably safely retained
This means the lnp MUST win nearly all those up to 6% for their majority..I wonder?
DUMP KATTER deal and come out and convince the public about your abortion policy libs now!
It is killing your vote.Should of acted a week ago.
Is it too late to install Mr Schrinner in the LNP leadership?
A week can indeed be a long time in politics.
Fraser thought he was standing against bill Hayden instead he got Bob Hawke.
Y’all need to stop getting my hopes up. Too much to hope avoiding an lnp government by the skin of our teeth.
If it comes down to an advertising campaign between Abortion vs crime libs are cattle trucked.
That’s what is happening the past week need to change narrative fast.
@banquo
You are still probably going to get a lnp government but one who at best gets narrow majority or at worst ( from their viewpoint) needs to deal with the.4 Katters
A one term govt!
Steven Miles is a far better campaigner than anyone expected. Cresafulli on the other hand has basically coasted along, relying on the cheerleading from the Courier Mail.
It could have been that the 55- 45 returned to 58-42 in other words an aberration. But the trend is with Miles and it’s now 53 or even 52 for the LNP . This is an absolute shocker but it’s what I’ve been feeling. The LNPs ads have been hopeless including the heavy rotation crime ads and the one where the doctor couple from the sunny coast bemoan a non existent tax. Crisifulli was terrible in the debate while Miles looked genuine. I still think the LNP will win a good majority courtesy of the regional dog whistle in central and far Q but it’s starting to look shakey. If this trend of Labor improvement continues things might get very close. If so it might teach the LNP to work up some appealing policies rather than rely on the old bloke in NY, channel 7 and the ABC to just coast into power.
Timely video from Friendlyjordies regarding the Queensland election (if it hasn’t been posted already).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXRM1mTWXm8
Who is the “old bloke”?
BTSays @ #165 Monday, October 21st, 2024 – 9:58 pm
Rupert Murdoch presumably.
The trend is certainly swinging Labor’s way. I thought perhaps id been drinking too much cool aid, but this poll proves that my gut feeling was correct. Over the past weekend, out and about with the member/candidate, the reception was warm and positive. It’s hard to believe that only three week ago, we were lamenting the 13% swing in the Waterford poll. Despite the LNPs ‘youth crime’ moral panic they have concocted, it’s cost-of-living that’s biting Queenslanders (a hangover from covid), and when push comes to shove, you can’t deny Labor’s track record in this realm.
I doubt Crisafulli will last a full term as premier. He’s lacklustre
and is relying on the length of time that Labor’s been at the helm and the youth crime rate. And he’s stuffed things up by not being clear on where he stands on abortion. Some of my female rellies describe him as insipid. The irksome Jarrod Bleijie*, Newman’s A-G, will be waiting in the wings ready to challenge Crisafulli at his first major misstep.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jarrod_Bleijie
So do you guys think LNP will a long-term government or one term government
Mavis @ #168 Monday, October 21st, 2024 – 10:11 pm
I’m in agreement with that. Bleijie would strike at the most opportune moment. But it’s not really sure if that would be earlier in which to start his political “legacy” projects, or later in the term so the electorate gets sick of Crisafulli so that Bleijie takes over and sells himself as a breath of reactionary air.
Antony Green
Abc election night with
70% counted.
There is a swing to the lnp but it seems very patchy.
It appears Labor has held most if not all their seats in Brisbane.
I can identify 5 seats won largely on the Sunshine Coast and the provincial cities by the lnp.
There will be at least a week of counting postal and prepoll to decide whether there is a lnp majority or a hung parliament.
In a surprise upset Labor retains the seats of Hervey Bay and Keppel
MY CRYSTAL BALL
Kirsdarke is correct, the old bloke owns the Brisbane courier and is a famous supporter of the Qld LNP.
Hey Mick ,I like that crystal ball of yours!!
To J Beans, it was great to hear your positive vibes out on the hustings. I’ve been on this site trying to argue things were not as dire as they seemed since last Xmas when things turned sour poll wise. It just didn’t make sense to me but I started to think I was living in Disneyland and letting my opinions colour reality. I could not understand how voters would allow the LNP to slip in without announcing any substantive policies just a lot of dog whistle and jive. We still have no real detail and I remember all too well how sh*those they were in 2012. Let’s hope a more narrow victory keeps them from being too extreme.
The LNP candidate joking about Hitler the other day all over the media is not calming the farm for the coalition.Geez is this going to be one of the biggest snatching defeat from the jaws of victory moments we have seen? Own goals.
Kirsdarke, thanks for Friendlyjordies link. His talk tells us more truths than the rest of the Qld newspaper and TV coverage combined.
Many Aussies are keeping an eye on Trump ( slimy no answer or lies about his abortion plans) and Harris (explaining the true result) . Don’t underestimate the women of Australia making a quick decision now abortion has become an issue here. Yes, we are all concerned about someone stealing a car somewhere and the cost of fuel. But Crucifooli is not very bright if he thinks this is not front and centre by a mile for all Qld women. L/NP pollies won’t answer the abortion proposition. Some of their new candidates have extreme RW views and are like rabbits in the headlights when questioned on their beliefs.
Even if Labor can pull back 1% or 2% in the next few days it won’t be enough.
Qld needs a switched on Govt because of the them and us attitude. Billions are being spent in rural and regional areas on roads and seems like every available dollar is going into RE projects. With that cheap power will come Industry and jobs for rural Qlders. The L/NP has convinced them RE is not good. As coal mines continue to close and the world winds down reliance on fossil fuels, where to for jobs and wealth then. Not just Qld, Australia is an exporting nation. Not approving RE projects is one thing, the L/NP privatising those already up and running would be almost criminal.
So many good things happening, shame if it’s all over next week.
Depends if they learnt anything from the Cando years?
It’ll be a one term government. 😉
Kirsdarke 10.01
Belated thanks.
New thread.
to be exact CM (YouGov) reported it on dp 54.5 to LNP, making it the most accurate 2pp prediction
https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/1847419420957954405