With a week to go, yesterday’s Courier-Mail reported a YouGov poll found Labor in an improved position compared with the last such poll in July, while still heading for defeat. Conducted from last Thursday through to Wednesday, the poll credited the Liberal National Party with a two-party lead of 55-45, in from 57-43, from primary votes of Labor 31% (up five), LNP 41% (down two), Greens 11% (down three) and One Nation 11% (down two). Steven Miles has also all but eliminated a substantial deficit on preferred premier, with David Crisafulli’s lead in from 40-27 to 37-36. Piecing together information from the report and an accompanying line chart, it looks like Miles is up three on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval to 44%, while Crisafulli is down two to 38% and up nine to 32%.
The poll helpfully includes breakdowns into five broadly defined regions, with caution due for the small sub-samples this produces from an overall sample of 1503. Based on my own assumptions as to how seats might have been characterised, this suggests Labor stands to lose the election in “regional”, which an accompanying map suggests encompasses the coast north of the Sunshine Coast (plus, I’ve assumed, Toowoomba), and “outer metro”, from what I calculate as swings of around 13% and 9% respectively. Conversely, the poll finds Labor holding steady on two-party preferred terms in “inner metro”, although it has lost about three points to the Greens. Labor faces swings of 3% to 4% in “coastal” (meaning the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast”) and “rural”, where it has little existing support to lose. While I would treat the result with caution, the numbers for “rural” suggest Katter’s Australian Party is shedding support to both the LNP and One Nation.
On top of its YouGov poll, Courier-Mail conducted an “exit poll” on Tuesday targeting 100 voters apiece at early voting centres in ten key electorates. While the scientific precision of the exercise might be doubted, the results were nonetheless striking in showing Labor down by between 4% (in McConnel) and 22% (in Rockhampton, where it may be losing votes to independent Margaret Strelow). Still more remarkably, the LNP was up by between 9% and 27%, excluding an outlier result for Cairns. There was little encouragement for the Greens in its target seats of McConnel and Greenslopes, which would have been won by the LNP on the numbers published, though the margins of error are naturally very wide. Comparing like for like (which the Courier-Mail’s tables didn’t do), Labor was down 13 points on 2020 and the LNP up 15, with the Greens down two and One Nation and Katter’s Australian Party little changed.
The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column relates “concern mounting about seats in Brisbane’s greater south” from Labor sources, but optimism about Meaghan Scanlon’s chances of retaining Gaven, the one seat Labor holds on the Gold Coast. Hayden Johnson of the Courier Mail says both sides expect Labor to hold out against the regional tide in the seat of Cairns, and that “some in Labor” consider Aspley in Brisbane’s inner north, where its margin is 5.2%, to be “50-50”.
BT: the preferred Premier ratings were definitely an eye opener and the strangest figure in the poll. It could be that people have been liking Miles but not prepared to vote Labor due to the euphemistic ” youth crime” issue up north but it could also be that Labor’s campaign is raising doubts about Mr Crisifulli’s one trick pony spruiking on crime and punishment. Miles picked over ten percent in popularity which is astonishing. People can say this is clutching at straws but analysing this stuff is interesting. We could just all sit on here and say Labor will be smashed by baseball bats but that’s not the vibe I’m getting . I’ve said a hundred times that the LNP will win ,it’s just that I’ve not bought into the as bad as 2012 baseball bats narrative.
Princeplanet
Not to be picky, but I thought Miles picked up 7% in ‘popularity’ (preferred Premier), from 29% to 36%.
Crisifulli dropped 43% to 37% I think it was, so perhaps you meant net difference between the two.
NB I don’t think anyone on this thread is saying (any more, at least) that this will be a result for Labor as bad as 2012.
Brisbane now has 4 pedestrian bridges across the river in the City Reach.
They’re spending $7 bil. + on a railway tunnel that takes 200 metres off the distance Public Servants have to walk to work, knock down The Brisbane Cricket Ground 25 years after a complete rebuild, voters out in the sticks wonder where the money comes from and who will pay for it.
Earlier last year, the MLA for Rockhampton demanded funding be announced for the Rocky Ring Road by the end of the week or “I’m outta here!”.
It was announced, he apologised to Treasurer Dick, retiring at the Election.
The issue is just all the pork barrel goes to shore up the Brisbane seats, there’s nothing left for ALP seats north of Nambour.
In other words, they were gone in Rocky if he’d resigned in 2023, and it hasn’t improved.
I never thought this would be as bad as 2012. Newman had a fair amount of support and the attacks on Newman and his family backfired badly in the latter part of the campaign. Pity he didn’t use the support the people gave him wisely.
I think Labor will end up 25-35 seats probably towards the higher end given the move away from the LNP late. Can’t see the 2PP being anywhere near 48/52 or 50/50. I think that’s more wishful thinking.
Re: crime. This isn’t an imaginary issue. Have a look at the QPS data. In places like Townsville, Mackay and Rockhampton, crime has nearly doubled in the last 20 years, most of the increase quite recent while the crime rate is significantly down in metro Brisbane:
https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/queensland-crime-statistics/
It just reflects long term, ingrained disadvantage and failure of essential state government services everywhere outside of inner city Brisbane.
Look at the distribution of public sector workers in Queensland, and then compare it to interstate. It’s completely different to say NSW or Victoria. Both NSW and Victoria have considerablely more frontline public sector workers (about 30% more) in regional areas than in their major metropolitan area. In Queensland, it’s completely the other way around, so that the number of public sector frontline workers per capita where I live is exactly half what at is in inner city Brisbane (yes, this data excludes corporate office jobs). Like a lot of folks, I moved here from regional NSW, and the difference in public services is large. The big regional centres in Queensland have some of the highest rates of private health and private education in the country, which is inverted from what you see in the other states, where it’s very much an affluent, inner city bias. This is often ascribed to people being conservative and favouring the private sector and there’s a degree of truth to that. But much of this just failure of state government service delivery.
Yes, you are right about Campbell Newman making state government services even worse and being even more Brisbane-centric than the ALP, and I’ve made exactly that point already. He was the Lord Mayor of Brisbane, after all. I think it’s very unlikely Crisafulli and the LNP are going to make the same mistake. And while I mostly talk about regional areas, what I am saying is nearly equally true of outer metropolitan areas. Look at the YouGov regional breakdowns and you can see it. You’ve got swings in the order of 15% in regional areas, 10,% in outer metropolitan areas, 5% on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts and they didn’t like the ALP to begin with. The ALP is being relegated to being an inner city party in a state where that represents only about a quarter of the population. If they stay that way, and it looks to me that this defeat is only going to accelerate this process, then they are going to have a mountain to climb to get back in contention statewide.
BT : my poor maths but still a big improvement since last you gov in july which was 40- 29 , there were also plenty on here through the last six months predicting baseball bats and 2012 results especially after the two disastrous by election losses.
Reading between the lines. Labor having closer to 35 seats is more likely than before.
This 35 is almost where the lnp is now!
Assume gr 2 kap 4 ind Noosa 1. Then this leaves lnp with approx 52 seats…….. only 7 seats away from a hung parliament…….
I wonder ?
Mick : dare to dream !!!
Long time lurker here, not a frequent poster. It’s been interesting to read everyone’s perceptions on the improvement we have seen in Labor’s Polling, and especially Steven Miles satisfaction. I’m working on a Labor campaign in a seat on Brisbane’s Northside, and I have to say, I’m not seeing any voters out with baseball bats. It feels very ‘business as usual’ at prepoll. We were preparing ourself for the worst, and it’s just not manifesting. In fact, we witnessed our LNP opponent copping a spray about banning abortion while at a market stall on the weekend.
I appreciate I am in the Brisbane bubble, and the feeling may be very different at the coasts and the regions, but I can’t see it being the blood bath that has been predicted.
I was also in the thick of it in 2012, so I’ve had first hand experience of an absolute drubbing…and this ain’t it.
William Bowe says: Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 10:13 pm:
“Rob Borbidge in 2001.”
True, and he also contested the 1995 election as leader after losing the 1992 election.
Agree it’s not 2012 and don’t believe it ever was likely to be that type of result. In 2012 Newman was able to carry Brisbane due to a high level of goodwill he made during the 2011 floods. Crisafulli has never had that level of goodwill.
It will be a comfortable LNP win but Labor will retain sufficient support to provide a decent opposition. That’s a much healthy position than 2012.
But having said the above we have to get the youngster home in Pumicestone. 🙂
@ David wh
Old dogs via the hard road
Puppies by the foot path
J Beans: yes it may only be Brisbane but Labor doesn’t have that much to lose on the LNP heartland of Sunshine and Gold Coasts. The Wombat who posts on here reckons Labor is well gone in Rocky and on.the nose in every other regional spot and pumicestone doesn’t sound good for Labor but I’m not seeing any sort LNP groundswell of support here in inner south side Brisbane in fact I’m yet to see an LNP sign which is way different to 2012. Good to hear you are getting a good reception out there let’s hope that bodes well.
I was in Qld in the lead up to 2012 and 2015… while people are annoyed, it really, genuinely doesn’t feel like the bats are out like they were then.
I don’t see how Labor can pull the rabbit out, I definitely get the sense Brisbane is not swinging to the extent it needs to for a true LNP landslide. LNP maxing out in its own seats and swinging hardest in regional seats could give the LNP an inflated `2PP to seat balance.
I’ve spoken to both ALP and LNP peeps and both clumps are pretty sure the LNP will win, but they’re NOWHERE near as confident as to the margin as they were 2 months ago. Having said that, historically, when QLD swings… it swings hard.
Say what you want – Miles has run a much better campaign than I think most have expected.
Katter sort of helped Miles to a large extent.
Coomera will be the Bellweather seat IMO. It’s the largest populated electorate in QLD. A lot of Labor voters in the South of the electorate and traditional Tory voters in the North. If it swings hard to the LNP you know it’s going to be a bad night for Labor. If it’s a minimul swing the losses won’t be too bad. I’m predicting a comfortable LNP majority of 50-55 seats with Labor on 30-35.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend?
Labor hold 1 seat on the Gold Coast but will not win extra.
Sunshine Coast Labor holds 2 seats both very marginal.
Provincial cities / country
Hervey Bay 2%
Bundaberg less than 0.5 %
Maryborough 11%
Musgrave 11%
Cairns area 3
Townsville area 3
Rockhampton 3 way contest
Mackay
Keppel 5.6%
Cook
17 seats
My sums chances in 7 to 8 seats alp retain
Lnp guaranteed about 10
Good Chance Ipswich West won back
What do you guys think the final results will be I think of the 54 to 46 lnp but with how stupid there are at the moment I wouldn’t be surprised if they are one term government labour gets in for another 10 years
52/34 seat projection.
There is a swing back to Labor. Last time I saw the margin was 55/45 lnp way
The swing can at best create a hung
parliament .
This is quite unlikely as there will probably not be enough time to reverse the lnp likely majority.
The key to the size of a lnp majority is the seats in the 5 to 10% range. . Which does Labor retain?
David
52 leaves only about a 5 seat absolute majority.
Come a by-election any seat bar some seats like
Condamine or Warrego could be lost
Mick yeah but if I’m Labor I’ll be happy that we’re not going to end up in the tens of seats at least with around 30 to 35 you could still get in next election because you know LnP will screw up somehow
There is meant to be a new poll on Queensland Nine News tonight, anyone see it?
Edit – it could be a Redbridge poll, based on the fact the same journo has reported on their figures before.
There are 19 seats Labor holds with margins less than 8%. Labor seems to be confident of holding Cairns and Cook. Let’s say LNP only wins 15 of those seats that would give the LNP around 50 seats a workable majority.
Labor would end up with around 36 seats the high side of most expectations.
Davidwh: you are spot on about the Katters throwing the ALP a lifeline but their candidate from Stretton did them no favours either. Rightly or wrongly I perceive the LNP to be a party of happy clappers, they believe in making sure no one else gets into their riches via taxation but also want to control various aspects of your life justifying it with discredited religious hocus pocus. It would be nice to know who in the LNP is a happy clapper and who is just in it because they believe themselves to be a better class of person who hates paying tax. Maybe the the reproductive rights bill where only three LNP members voted for it is educative.
Have to wait until 6pm Leroy
David: that 50 seat majority would be a shaky result for the LNP . A few seats gone and they are in marginal territory. I often go back to the comments from polling stories on this site from six months ago and they were a very different kettle of fish. I always thought that this wasn’t a bad government and although father time was catching them and I couldn’t see them patching together a majority they didn’t deserve to be smashed. I think an LNP majority of early 50s is about right but I’ve not analysed every seat. It should be remembered that polling has shown cost of living to be the biggest issue, way bigger than the dog whistle of ” youth crime”. The LNP has not really set us alight on this score relying on a one note campaign of blaming the government for every abhorrent act and crime. When as expected the LNP wins a majority they will be very vulnerable to attacks on the crime front. Crime will still happen because it happens everywhere and always and their one reason for being there is to stamp out crime.
Princeplanet when you have been on the opposition benches for most of the last 37 years then any win is a good win.
Princeplanet @ #131 Monday, October 21st, 2024 – 5:36 pm
They wouldn’t fix the crime issue and they wouldn’t make any significant dent in the health system issues which are Australia wide, even international.
Resolve has ALP at 32 % pv LNPs PV has fallen 4% to 40% I might have these figures wrong as it’s a hot take on my phone, but things are going astray for Crisifulli. now 53 – 47 to LNP. We could be heading towards minority territory.
I think the LNP may be feeling a little shaky tonight. 9 news poll – 47/53. The gap is most definitely closing. Too little too late for Labor? We shall see soon enough.
Video clip on the Resolve poll here, for those with a Twitter/X login.
https://x.com/9NewsQueensland/status/1848276923438240090
Brisbane Times article here
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/labor-back-from-the-brink-as-miles-narrows-lnp-lead-in-the-polls-20241021-p5kju9.html
No paywall version here
https://archive.is/LaLWk
Resolve QLD state poll
TPP: LNP 53 ALP 47 ALP (respondent allocated prefs)
TPP: LNP 52 ALP 48 ALP (last election prefs)
Primaries: LNP 40 ALP 32 GRN 11 ON 9 KAP 3 OTH 3 IND 2
According to a Brisbane Times’ poll, Labor’s closing the gap to 53-47. The ads are coming thick & fast. Labor is questioning whether the Tories are going to change abortion laws; the Tories, the old crime & punishment bogie looms large. Lock ’em up & throw away the key, but a remedy for youth crime is not as simple as Crisafulli contends, and as he’ll find out.
Typo above, I think its KAP primary on 2, same as Indie on 2.
What’s the Resolve polling on the ‘preferred Premier’ question?
And how does it compare to their last such poll?
Even better. On last election preferences it’s 52/48.
It’s getting a touch tighter based on those numbers. Think I’ll just hold on to YouGov and ignore Resolve.
Just call me Ollie. 🙂
See if only they had picked Cameron Dick and not wannabe Latham staffer Miles this election was winnable.
davidwh – I trust Newspoll & YouGov more than Resolve. But its possible this is a fast moving situation, and so as people make up their minds polls get a bit wobbly, there may be late breakers to the ALP. Hopefully we will have an election eve Newspoll in The Australian (although I’ve heard nothing about if they will).
As they say the trend is your friend and this poll was taken last week. As I’ve been harping on about the LNP campaign has been p*ss poor offering nothing beyond crime and punishment and sad stories. Labor has deadset run rings around them. But this doesn’t really surprise me with the calibre of their representatives. They expected this to be a cakewalk and fell asleep at the wheel and now it’s turning into a real contest. LNP will still win but to lose 5 points in the course of an election with a fair bit to go is just astounding it could even end up in minority territory which is just mind blowing at this point.
Thanks Leroy. A Newspoll would be nice. I tend to trust them more other pollsters.
LNP still on 40% but looking like a small majority.
I’d rather Labor majority than a LNP minority.
[‘The final days of this election campaign are as much about who will be on the podium for the 2032 Olympics and Paralympics as they are about who will sit on the Treasury benches of the Queensland Parliament in December this year.
The lame campaign of the Liberal National Party puts them at risk of being weakened from the start if they achieve, as is universally expected, a majority this Saturday.
But a week out, the majority will not be what was widely expected two months ago. A combined Labor and Greens seat count looks like being in the high 30s at this stage, putting a combined LNP/Katter Australia Party count in the 50s.
This is a good majority – at the level Wayne Goss achieved when he won government in 1989.
But the conduct of this campaign has weakened David Crisafulli as a leader who can command the full respect of his party and the respect from the community he needs if he is to do anything other than depart from a script.
Steven Miles has put scratch marks on Crisafulli which will easily turn to scars. In their debate, he sucker-punched him into agreeing to resign if crime did not fall.
And Labor has shown Crisafulli cannot control elements of his partyroom due to his ducking and weaving on whether his government might bring on legislation that could reverse Labor’s abortion law reforms.’]
https://www.inqld.com.au/opinion/2024/10/21/not-quite-the-campaign-we-had-expected-and-it-will-leave-crisafulli-looking-a-little-worse-for-wear
Has the time frame for the resolve poll been published? If this was earlier last week, it may be worthwhile having a punt! I believe sportsbet were paying an ALP win at 8:1. I dare to dream!
J Beans – On the Resolve poll, “The survey of 1003 voters from October 14 to 19”
53/47 did not even turn up before. There appears to be a trend back to Labor…. not enough for an alp win. But a 5% margin is 3% better than 8% swing. This means the swing will mainly restricted to the loss of marginal seats and those if lost will remain marginal. Eg Labor chances of retaining Pumicestone Rockhampton and Gavan have improved.
A lnp majority of 5 has problems if a by-election is forced either arising out of the election or subsequent events.