With a week to go, yesterday’s Courier-Mail reported a YouGov poll found Labor in an improved position compared with the last such poll in July, while still heading for defeat. Conducted from last Thursday through to Wednesday, the poll credited the Liberal National Party with a two-party lead of 55-45, in from 57-43, from primary votes of Labor 31% (up five), LNP 41% (down two), Greens 11% (down three) and One Nation 11% (down two). Steven Miles has also all but eliminated a substantial deficit on preferred premier, with David Crisafulli’s lead in from 40-27 to 37-36. Piecing together information from the report and an accompanying line chart, it looks like Miles is up three on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval to 44%, while Crisafulli is down two to 38% and up nine to 32%.
The poll helpfully includes breakdowns into five broadly defined regions, with caution due for the small sub-samples this produces from an overall sample of 1503. Based on my own assumptions as to how seats might have been characterised, this suggests Labor stands to lose the election in “regional”, which an accompanying map suggests encompasses the coast north of the Sunshine Coast (plus, I’ve assumed, Toowoomba), and “outer metro”, from what I calculate as swings of around 13% and 9% respectively. Conversely, the poll finds Labor holding steady on two-party preferred terms in “inner metro”, although it has lost about three points to the Greens. Labor faces swings of 3% to 4% in “coastal” (meaning the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast”) and “rural”, where it has little existing support to lose. While I would treat the result with caution, the numbers for “rural” suggest Katter’s Australian Party is shedding support to both the LNP and One Nation.
On top of its YouGov poll, Courier-Mail conducted an “exit poll” on Tuesday targeting 100 voters apiece at early voting centres in ten key electorates. While the scientific precision of the exercise might be doubted, the results were nonetheless striking in showing Labor down by between 4% (in McConnel) and 22% (in Rockhampton, where it may be losing votes to independent Margaret Strelow). Still more remarkably, the LNP was up by between 9% and 27%, excluding an outlier result for Cairns. There was little encouragement for the Greens in its target seats of McConnel and Greenslopes, which would have been won by the LNP on the numbers published, though the margins of error are naturally very wide. Comparing like for like (which the Courier-Mail’s tables didn’t do), Labor was down 13 points on 2020 and the LNP up 15, with the Greens down two and One Nation and Katter’s Australian Party little changed.
The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column relates “concern mounting about seats in Brisbane’s greater south” from Labor sources, but optimism about Meaghan Scanlon’s chances of retaining Gaven, the one seat Labor holds on the Gold Coast. Hayden Johnson of the Courier Mail says both sides expect Labor to hold out against the regional tide in the seat of Cairns, and that “some in Labor” consider Aspley in Brisbane’s inner north, where its margin is 5.2%, to be “50-50”.
Katter Party have been Labor’s agents in the North keeping the National Party out.
Perhaps people in the north are waking up.
In any case, Labor have done nothing for them.
Of the other defeated Qld Premiers, Digby Denham lost his seat in 1915, Arthur Moore retired from Parliament in 1941 after losing Premiership in 1932, Rob Borbidge lost to Beattie in 1998, resigned a few weeks after being returned at the 2001 Election.
I am going to regret responding to Badthinker, but I will out of sheer boredom.
Bob Katter and company are simply an entity doing whatever they can for their own privilege and power, as per the Greens, One Nation, ALP and LNP.
There were areas in Bob Katter’s country that used to be more Labor territory (the old state seat of Mount Isa) and areas that used to be more conservative (the rest of it).
So what? Old Bob made an art form of being everything to everyone. By never having to actually deliver, he kept on being re-elected. In Townsville recently I saw this great “send them out bush” sign they had up about youth crime – Charters Towers Road? – as if this was some sort of magic solution. That’s the specialty – complete unsubstantiated rot that will never need to be implemented or actually work.
People like George Christiansen clearly took inspiration from Katter; talking bunk while becoming the the model of modern success: being reelected while standing for precisely nothing.
Katter’s approach always depends on the way the wind blows. It is just show. Labor, LNP, whatever, all just show. And a magnificent show it is: I still enjoy watching Bob Katter in the house.
I hope Katter loses all their seats: because the joke of pretending to care but keeping themselves as far away from hard decisions as possible wears thin.
PS. Cardwell has the largest mango tree I have seen in my life.
Boring post, Bogan.
As I said, Katter Party has helped Labor, hindered National Party.
There’s no evening out, KAP goes out of it’s way to prevent LNP Governments [2010; Qld 2016; 2024]
There is no love lost between KAP and the Nats. They are fighting over the same territory.
The way things are going in the LNPs extremely ordinary one note campaign it would not surprise me if the final poll is 53-47. The abortion issue could shift some more votes for sure. 47 % is not such a big jump from 45.5%. Miles laughing freeman persona is resonating here in sunny Qld. whereas earlier in the year it was derided by LNP/ courier mail. Crisifulli is making hard work of this.
Don’t get too optimistic PrinceP, people are already voting and even if the trend was fantastic for Labor over the next week, less and less votes are available for it to make a difference every day.
I think the game Katter my be playing could be:
. He reckons the LNP are going to end up with most seats.
. By bringing up the abortions issue he is hoping to make sure they don’t have an absolute majority, so they will have to rely on his party for confidence and supply, thus handing him a disproportionate amount of power.
I reckon it’s a long shot for him, but can’t blame him for trying.
Prince planet I would call it Miles Supercilious Grinning but to each his own. Surely we won’t have to suffer another four years of it. Can you imagine how suffering it would be next Saturday night.
More heartbreaking than following the Broncos. 🙁
Miles is No Beattie . He will lose big come Saturday not as bad as 2012 for Labor but around 58/42 to LNP. People have made their minds long before this campaign started.
Fargo61says:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 5:07 pm
…………………………..
I would be very interested to know if Nadia, who has previously predicted less ALP seats, has modified her expectations at all.
———————-
Fargo61, I was hoping she would drop a line too yesterday morning when the poll arrived.
I went down to the shops in the end to get the courier mail. She mentioned on a previous thread that there was a state based yougov imminent, and as sure as night becomes day, it turned up yesterday. Fuck, she know’s her stuff. So far ahead of plebs like me.
I thought she may be around for the ACT election last night as she’s always up for an election or poll. I was on the site last night, but from her, no appearance. There was a slight dust up on the US thread last week involving her and another poster, so perhaps she is taking a bit of time away from the site.
Hopefully she drops by for the weekly morgan poll on Monday evening. I too would be interested in her opinions of what is going on in QLD. She was(is) fairly “brutal” with her opinions; that is LNP topping 60 seats and the ALP below 20 from memory. Sounds like this current poll shows a slight closing of the gap.
Hopefully a few more polls this week I suppose.
To win, Labor needs a coincidence of:
. The opinion polls being a bit off in faovur of the LNP. Qld must be a nightmare place to poll because of the wide differences between different parts of the state.
. Miles claws back a bit more support in the last week of campaigning.
. The distribution of the vote is favourable to Labor – ie; they win a lot of seats on thin margins while the LNP waste some of their vote in big margins in seats that they win.
Not likely, but stranger things have happened.
You’ve only got to watch Bob Katter jr’s appalling behaviour in Question Time to realise that any guarantee of Confidence and Supply wouldn’t be worth the paper it was written on.
Badthinkersays:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 6:08 pm
Boring post, Bogan.
As I said, Katter Party has helped Labor, hindered National Party.
There’s no evening out, KAP goes out of it’s way to prevent LNP Governments [2010; Qld 2016; 2024]
————————
Badthinker, Katter has announced he is preferencing the LNP. Are you saying the past he has shitted on the LNP and preferenced Labor. Most of his voters surely are conservative supporters, or am I missing something.
What are your thoughts on PHON – will they be wiped out or grab a couple of seats.
Hey joeldi: optimism is my thing but I don’t live in Disneyland. I’m not suggesting nor have since the by elections that ALP can win just that things are tightening and could end up 53-47. There is no path I could see even last year when things were 50-50 where Labor could win after to three wins where they cobbled together majorities somehow. Time in power is a drag that can’t be overcome but I’m feeling things aren’t great in Crisifulli land.
paul A @ #64 Sunday, October 20th, 2024 – 5:29 pm
The Katter family’s background is the “traditional” Labor party rural wing (think strikes in the agricultural industries when there were lots of rural labourers before the almost compete mechanisation of agriculture we have today). Someone who knows Robbie Katter has said to me Robbie would be a shop steward in a rural workers union. Very socially conservative bu emphatically not aligned with the big business or professional classes.
ajm @ #66 Sunday, October 20th, 2024 – 5:36 pm
Refer this article on Bob Katter Sr (Robbie’s granfather): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Katter_Sr.#:~:text=4%20Notes-,Early%20years,Lebanese%2DAmerican%20poet%20Khalil%20Gibran.
Also note they were Lebanese Maronite Christians.
Thanks ajm.
So in very simple language, the Katters support the following…
* Abortion – safe/legal and extremely rare.
* pro Union
* Pro Farmer
* pro workers who work on the farms (managed by the Farmer)
* anti Brisbane, anti Gold Coast and anti the Sunshine Coast
* No gays in the seat of Kennedy (I’m sure Bob mentioned something about that 10 years ago or so).
Tough gig for the Katter’s.
Paul A I think the Katters are comfortable in their chosen environment.
Badthinker, Katter has announced he is preferencing the LNP.
Only in 3 Townsville Seats , not the other 86.
LNP should have smelled a rat then, because a few days later he’s announced KAP will be putting up a Private Members Bill to Repeal the 2018 Abortion Laws.
Par for the course on the past is Liberal Campaign managers couldn’t get an answer out of Bob Katter Jr as to who he was preferencing, that’s how flaky they are.
One thing though:
Think how many scandals the ABC and MSM uncover about Hanson’s candidates, it’s a trope.
Katter Party, crickets.
paul A @ #68 Sunday, October 20th, 2024 – 5:46 pm
That’s pretty close. In a few electorates it might work really well but not widespread appeal.
davidwh @ #69 Sunday, October 20th, 2024 – 5:49 pm
Snap
ajm
I gather there will be no Katter candidates in South Brisbane, Maiwar or Greenslopes.
….
Moving along. Badthinker – What is the KAP position on abortion.
Is it 24 weeks, heartbeat rule, or about 15 minutes after the deed is performed.
Where are you heading with all of this & are you a member of the KAP?
Also, Pauline Hanson. Is her time over in QLD. If her primary sinks in this state election there will be chatter the week after about Malcolm Roberts Senate spot. He’s due to face the electors next.
Bob Katter Sr was a member of the managerial classs and a businessman.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Katter_Sr.
Went to Brisbane Grammar Army Officer, held office in the Clerks Union [Groupers]
Interestingly, he stood for the QLP [Gair Labor] in Flinders in 1957 against Frank Forde, the Country Party won the Seat.
Dick Riordan had held Flinders until his death in 1954.
Riordan’s nephew Bill Riordan retired from Kenedy in 1966, Katter stood for the Country Party and won.
Bob Katter Jr won Flinders in 1974.
+++++++++++++++++++++
So, no, the Katters aren’t Shop Steward types, they’re toffs.
Moving along. Badthinker – What is the KAP position on abortion.
Is it 24 weeks, heartbeat rule, or about 15 minutes after the deed is performed.
Who cares?
It’s only to wedge the LNP and help Labor, but for some reason you’re unable to understand that?
Bob Katter/politics is a well constructed business model to maintain the seat and everything that goes with it.( The family/son/daughter do everything and review everything with that in mind.
It’s successful as time has shown and the Katter philosopher is cleverly able combine a seemingly indigestible mix of somewhat confusing “shallowly held beliefs” to hold the political business model together.
The Katters approach the State election with their own outcome to be most beneficial to the Katters.
ajm @ #62 Sunday, October 20th, 2024 – 6:26 pm
It has happened there before, Labor won the 1995 election by barely one seat on 47-53, although Mundingburra wasn’t solid enough so it went to a by-election that the Liberals won the next year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Queensland_state_election
On Katter Sr’s bid for Flinders:
Katter Sr was Cloncurry Shire Chairman and had good contacts in the Clerks Union [Vince Gair was also a member]] at the time Dick Riordan died in 1954.
Why Frank Forde was chosen to represent a NW Qld seat when he’d been living in Sydney in 1946 when voters in Capricornia booted him from Federal Parliament, who knows?
But it’s a fair guess that Katter Sr had his eye on the seat, since he ran for the QLP in ’57.
By 1966, the ’57 split was ancient hitory, but no QLP member ever got Labor preselection, so Bob Katter sr joined the Country Party and won Kennedy thru them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Katter_Sr.
I do not think anyone who believes the abortion trick that the Labor party is playing would have voted LNP anyways. Y’all think the LNP are going to make the same mistakes Campbell did – they won’t. Just like AP didn’t make the same mistakes AB & PB made with selling assets. Most voters understand that governments make mistakes and learn from them. The current premier looks desperate with the abortion scare campaign and voters see through his policies that are just aimed at holding onto outer Brisbane suburb seats and fighting off the greens in the inner suburbs .
Badthinker,
The KAP have announced that they will table legislation in the next Parliament, to restore the pre-2017 abortion laws.
I think it’s a reasonable call of the KAP, especially to announce it before the election. This is what politics is all about. Most of us are sick of politicians who “slip in the nasties” post election.
KAP have put it on the table, and the public will assess, as they do.
Either Labor, or most likely the LNP, will have to deal with this in the new Parliament.
I just don’t see where the benefit is for Labor.
Hey Davidwh: I lost interest in the Murdoch owned Broncos years ago. If you are up north in the pumicestone passage give the dolphins a go, they will win a premiership before the courier mail broncos!! For me I’m fortitude Valley’s diehards until I die
Princeplanet Wynnum/Manly born and bred hence the tie to the Broncos. However I’m more a Lions supporter these days.
If the Katter party were truly pro farmer and pro north Queensland, why are they going on about abortion rather then say they will repeal the Reef Regulation laws. SEQ designed ideological based laws that screwed over cane farmers, grain farmers and graziers slap bang in Katter country all for Labor to crow to SEQ who were unaffected, “look how good we are by what we have done”.
I think the assessment that the Katter party are no more then career politicians, more aligned with labor then the LNP. With Labor in government,they know Labor will treat regional/rural Queenslander’s with contempt and as punching bags to shore up Brisbane seats, it gives the Katter party plenty of complaining power to get people to vote for them. Look at how well chronic complaining worked for Miles during covid. Barely a day went by when he was not complaining about the federal Coalition government, and he was handsomely rewarded.
I can not see the Katter party wanting the LNP in power, as that lessens their influence over their audience.
David : I’m a Bulimba boy and played for a valleys offshoot. Always like Wynnum though as second favourite club. Great that lions are back at the top though!!! We may disagree a little bit on politics but we live in a great democracy. I always say I could live with LNP rule forever so long as it’s democratic.
Agree Princeplanet have lived through a few different governments and respect our system of government. As a matter of interest my all time favorite politician is Tom Burns. Voted for him when we lived in Murarrie.
Joeldipops, last page:
WA had three in a row.
Frank Wise (ALP): premier 1945-47, opposition leader in 1950
Ross McLarty (Lib): premier 1947-53, OL in 1956
Bert Hawke (ALP): premier 1953-59, OL 1962 and 1965
In SA, Don Dunstan had two separate terms as premier and was OL in between. Rob Kerin also stayed on after the 2002 loss and ran in 2006. (According to Wikipedia, he’s the most recent.)
John Cain Sr in Vic kinda counts, although trying to understand Vic politics in the 1940’s makes my brain hurt.
NSW had Jack Renshaw: premier 1964-65, OL in 1968.
Tas had Michael Field: premier 1989-92, OL 1996. Also Eric Reece, with two separate terms as premier.
Rob Borbidge in 2001.
Trying to stuff up things for the lnp is quite a good idea.
I do not see the actions of the Katters as helping Labor but rather as helping themselves.
They want to have the balance of power or some share of it. The closer Queensland gets to a hung parliament the better. Or even being a couple of by elections away from it.
“Labor in government,they know Labor will treat regional/rural Queenslander’s with contempt and as punching bags to shore up Brisbane seats”
@Jolly Jumbuck
This is generally alot of crap. Labor don’t get into power if they don’t win seats in regional Queensland through Central, North, and the far North. A classic example was Adani after the 2019 federal election Labor was given such a spanking in regional Queensland. Annastacia Palaszczuk had no choice but to back down and push through Adani or she will lose government. You could make the case the Greens don’t care about regional Queensland to shore up Brisbane seats, but not Labor.
I have been chatting with Mark Bailey, MP for Miller, on Facebook. Another great bloke.
Much like Princeplanet, I think Labor if it improves a bit more in polling could trim the size of the likely LNP majority. Miles is having a good campaign, at least he is enjoying himself.
Yes DS, I have been a bit mystified by Labors extremely bad polls. I know that voters are cranky and want to blame someone but Labor has been governing pretty well in tough times. Its hard to see how they could be doing much more. The crime issue has hurt them in regional towns and obviously there is a lot of dog whistling going on with the euphemism ” youth crime”. I thought this time last year that the ALP would struggle to fight father time and very likely lose, but the 58-42 stuff was mind blowing! I’ve had many conversations on here since early this year with Nadia who is great and has very interesting opinions but I disagreed with her assessment that Labor would win 8-12 seats. She has recently amended that to 12-18 but I still thought that was a bit low. I think right now 28 – 32 but could go to mid to high 30s if things keep going Miles way. Crisifulli is proving a one trick pony now he’s been exposed to the public scrutiny and Miles is showing up as a pretty genuine and pleasant guy, also Labor is a formidable campaign machine. I’ve crossed paths with both in town, Miles about five years ago walked past me on his own and said hello and came across as a good approachable guy. Crisifulli walked past me last year with his entourage as if no one existed except him and I had to get out of their way, same experience with Deb Freckleton both just seemed sour and transactional and full of themselves. Anyway I know I can be over optimistic but through the years my assessments have been more right than wrong, things could coalesce around the crime issue and Nadia could still be right but I feel the momentum is with Miles and a little bit of improvement is possible. If so maybe the LNP may only get to a three or four seat majority which could be a bit shakey if 12-15 is anything to go by. ALP cannot win but the size of the loss will be the most interesting metric. Sorry for being so long winded.
Princeplanet: no need to apologise mate, your posts are insightful and on the money in my opinion. Miles comes across to me as far more relatable than the other guy, who does have a hint of arrogance about him.
LNP will win a big majority, I think, and regional QLD will be where they win big, but if Labor can hold some of their vulnerable seats in SE QLD, that will give them a base to rebuild from for 2028.
Oh, and my metric sometimes with elections personality wise is, who would I rather have a beer with? In the case of QLD, Steven Miles,not Cresifulli.
My mate up there Rob Skelton won’t hold Nicklin, but he is a stellar bloke, speaking of having a beer or two with a good mate, ditto Mark Ryan – who will retain Miller
DS: I will be happy if some of the more talented members hold their seats. Obviously Meaghan Scanlan will have a battle on the coast but you never know . GC is hostile territory for Labor ,maybe because it’s newspaper is even more ratbaggy than the courier (if that’s possible) I remember years ago reading a story in the GC Bulletin referring to Brisbane as the socialist republic of Brisbane lol. Anyway I’ve had my fingers crossed that it would not be a repeat of 2012 after all of the coverage saying it will be 2012 once more, I will be happy with high 20s in the seat count anything more would be a bonus. It will be a good one to lose if that’s possible as often governments go one more time than they should and get devastated the next time round. It will be interesting to see how the LNP travels as they will have a mandate for crime and little else. If they revert to the usual LNP tropes of asset sales, watering down environmental
protections, sacking or making life hard for public service, service cuts , austerity after finding massive mysterious Labor black hole etc. they will wear out their welcome pretty quickly. Add to this the likelihood of changes to reproductive rights and the impossibility of satisfying regional areas on the euphemism of ” youth crime”and we are in for an interesting time.
Off to vote. Ali v The Kid.
I think there’s a lack of reality around some of the posts with respect to optimism regarding the ALP’s prospects. Looking at the regional breakdowns in the YouGov poll, the ALP will essentially be relegated nearly entirely to inner city Brisbane. They are likely to have no seats in either the Gold Coast or Sunshine Coast, perhaps one or optimistically two in regional Queensland (13% swing), and facing a near wipe-out in outer metropolitan areas (about a 10% swing).
What’s left is just no longer representative of of Queensland as a whole and means they will have very little presence in major growth areas. This lack of representation outside of Brisbane is unprecedented in the history of the ALP in Queensland. It didn’t even happen under Joe, or in 2012. Queensland isn’t like the other states, you can’t just represent Brisbane. Already there’s a trajectory where the ALP is going to be relegated to duking it out with the Greens in inner city Brisbane. This dynamic has already heavily influenced this election, with ALP policy and campaigning often more aimed at the Greens and inner city seats than any kind of statewide competition. In much of the state, it’s felt like there’s only been one horse in the race. I’d absolutely agree with the contention the LNP has had a poor campaign, but it’s often felt more like the arguments were more the LNP arguing with itself than being challenged by the ALP.
Some interesting posts on here (esp history / knowledge of the Katters!), thank you.
Though not much ‘from the ground’ as to how the campaign really is swinging, although as stated Queensland is a little tricky to look at as one whole simultaneously.
I know it defies the media narrative but, unless someone can point to evidence of why the spread of Lab/LNP voters is vastly different to 1995 then I really don’t see why a small Lab maj or a hung parliament (if that’s what you call it in Oz) isn’t feasible.
As people have said, Crisifulli is a bit – let’s put it positively, ‘aloof’, and Miles is not really scary or especially polarising from what I can see?
I think perhaps it comes down to: how many undecided / possible switchers actually were there still 3 weeks ago? – polls may have shown this but I don’t have any reference of this.
Because if the undecideds poll was a decent % and they break heavily in one direction, as often happens, who knows what will happen?
The other side is, even if people aren’t sold on LNP there may be enough intrigue to ‘give them a chance’ especially after a decade of Labor. Abortion issue and debate performance notwithstanding, LNP have probably been no worse than uninspiring – so may get their fill of reluctant ‘late deciders’.
The very fact that the YouGov poll – which showed a narrowing anyway, albeit still well in favour of LNP – was now showing a dead heat in preferred Premier, indicates it’s far from over.
Of course, the alternative narrative not much discussed is that LNP do barely break over 50% 2PP but Labor’s vote is spread in the worst possible way so as to give them a hefty seat loss.
Well I think Ali may be a bit worried. She was in your face about selling the hospital and abortion. Much more aggressive than usual. Ariana was trying to get her message across but Ali was sticking to her like glue. Hip and shoulder style.
Be interesting Saturday night.
Wombat : I’m certainly not arguing with your assessment but how was regional Qld treated under the Newman government. I get that regional Qld feels it doesn’t get it’s money’s worth but I remember Newmans public service cuts disproportionately affected regional offices. Do you think they are going to be different this time? All I’m looking for is a reasonable opposition to keep the LNP from going rogue and I think that this is a possibility – what are you hoping for?