With a week to go, yesterday’s Courier-Mail reported a YouGov poll found Labor in an improved position compared with the last such poll in July, while still heading for defeat. Conducted from last Thursday through to Wednesday, the poll credited the Liberal National Party with a two-party lead of 55-45, in from 57-43, from primary votes of Labor 31% (up five), LNP 41% (down two), Greens 11% (down three) and One Nation 11% (down two). Steven Miles has also all but eliminated a substantial deficit on preferred premier, with David Crisafulli’s lead in from 40-27 to 37-36. Piecing together information from the report and an accompanying line chart, it looks like Miles is up three on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval to 44%, while Crisafulli is down two to 38% and up nine to 32%.
The poll helpfully includes breakdowns into five broadly defined regions, with caution due for the small sub-samples this produces from an overall sample of 1503. Based on my own assumptions as to how seats might have been characterised, this suggests Labor stands to lose the election in “regional”, which an accompanying map suggests encompasses the coast north of the Sunshine Coast (plus, I’ve assumed, Toowoomba), and “outer metro”, from what I calculate as swings of around 13% and 9% respectively. Conversely, the poll finds Labor holding steady on two-party preferred terms in “inner metro”, although it has lost about three points to the Greens. Labor faces swings of 3% to 4% in “coastal” (meaning the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast”) and “rural”, where it has little existing support to lose. While I would treat the result with caution, the numbers for “rural” suggest Katter’s Australian Party is shedding support to both the LNP and One Nation.
On top of its YouGov poll, Courier-Mail conducted an “exit poll” on Tuesday targeting 100 voters apiece at early voting centres in ten key electorates. While the scientific precision of the exercise might be doubted, the results were nonetheless striking in showing Labor down by between 4% (in McConnel) and 22% (in Rockhampton, where it may be losing votes to independent Margaret Strelow). Still more remarkably, the LNP was up by between 9% and 27%, excluding an outlier result for Cairns. There was little encouragement for the Greens in its target seats of McConnel and Greenslopes, which would have been won by the LNP on the numbers published, though the margins of error are naturally very wide. Comparing like for like (which the Courier-Mail’s tables didn’t do), Labor was down 13 points on 2020 and the LNP up 15, with the Greens down two and One Nation and Katter’s Australian Party little changed.
The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column relates “concern mounting about seats in Brisbane’s greater south” from Labor sources, but optimism about Meaghan Scanlon’s chances of retaining Gaven, the one seat Labor holds on the Gold Coast. Hayden Johnson of the Courier Mail says both sides expect Labor to hold out against the regional tide in the seat of Cairns, and that “some in Labor” consider Aspley in Brisbane’s inner north, where its margin is 5.2%, to be “50-50”.
55-45 is a pretty unassailable lead but the fact that Miles has picked up so much in the preferred Premier ratings would be a worry for the LNP. For the LNP to lose two points in primary vote is showing that Miles is making inroads and if the LNP lose another couple to be in the high 30s things could become uneasy. The key for Labor is to get in front in outer Brisbane and improve somewhat in the regional cities. A few points improvement especially considering Miles is doing well is not out of the question and could deliver Labor mid 30s in seats maybe even a touch higher. Right now I’d say 28 to 32 seats for Labor but momentum seems to be with Miles and Labor which doesn’t indicate a 2012 repeat.
Maybe Labor’s ads, and media questions, about the LNP’s covert anti-abortion agenda have had some effect?
Steven Miles is proving to be a far better campaigner than the media expected, whereas Cresafulli looks rather ordinary. The abortion debate has hurt the LNP, although probably only in Brisbane.
A good last week for Labor and they could limit the damage to a respectable level, in terms of seat losses and retaining possibly the likes of Bart Mellish, or maybe even Rob Skelton in Nicklin, a great bloke and very hard working MP.
Oliver: the ALP adverts I’ve seen have been so much better than the LNP . The Labor ads started with a bit of positive achievement stuff and a lot of Cando Newman memories. I thought the catchphrase ” cut Crisifulli before he cuts you” was masterful. They have now turned to reproductive rights and it’s obviously turning votes. I think because it’s reminding people of how last time Cando Newman promised easy going going rule and provided the opposite. The LNP went on heavy rotation with the LNP candidates family tragedy. Now their ads have a shrill and desperate aspect light on facts or relevance. The problem is that we know the ALP but that the LNP are a jump into the dark. My gut feeling is that the dial is moving toward Miles but nowhere near enough to win.
The polling seems indicative of the expected results of the election.
The real interest will be in the relative movements of the Greens, Teal types, and various independents and the margin of Labor’s expected lost.
The regional variations predicted in this election are uniquely Qldish and will be interesting.
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Princeplanetsays:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 7:51 am
Oliver: the ALP adverts I’ve seen have been so much better than the LNP . The Labor ads started with a bit of positive achievement stuff and a lot of Cando Newman memories. I thought the catchphrase ” cut Crisifulli before he cuts you” was masterful. They have now turned to reproductive rights and it’s obviously turning votes.
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Princeps
Dutton took leave from July 3 to 19th and went to USA for “holidays”.
Disastrous Debate for Biden between Biden and Trump happened on June,27th, 2024
RNC happened between 15th July to 18th July.
Rupert Murdoch was at the Convention.
Dutton was somewhere in USA at that time. He could have received Project 2025 document.
Reproductive rights is one of the policy items in Project 2925.
Dutton is from QLD and Crisafulli is also from QLD.
LNP believes that they are going to win QLD election by big margin. So maybe Dutton wants to experiment in QLD. Connect the dots.
I reckon the abortion issue has done the LNP no good at all.
Just as Labor has needed to learn to accept (and still occasionally forgets) the fact that a sizeable majority of the population wants strong border protection, Coalition politicians need to learn that raising the issue of abortion is a guaranteed way of shooting themselves in their feet.
And, as others point out, the Coalition is undoubtedly struggling with a growing evangelical element among its membership. And the party has also picked up a lot of the devout Catholic vote: just look at how many Catholic leaders and senior ministers it has featured in recent years at both the state and federal level. What a change from the 1944 Albury conference at which the Liberal Party was formed, which featured only one Catholic out of around 100 delegates!
Ven: Rupert takes a great deal of interest in right wing activities world wide. I remember he had some real interest in the 2012 Qld election and is a strong supporter of public servant cuts. So what you say does not surprise me. Also there is the story that he had a courier mail editor removed for not being 100% supportive of Newmans chaotic and hurtful regime. He expected the editor to be in lockstep with the LNP and his editor by reporting the truth incurred Murdoch’s wrath. Since this editor was removed the courier has indeed been in lockstep. I noticed yesterday Trump who is flailing pleaded for Murdoch’s lockstep support. He has the murdochracy’s support but not quite to the fanatical fantasy stuff he indulges in.
Princeplanet: “Rupert takes a great deal of interest in right wing activities world wide. I remember he had some real interest in the 2012 Qld election …”
Indeed. When I entered the polling place at St Finnbar’s, Ashgrove (100 metres from CanDo’s electorate office), I walked alongside a fence papered with a gallery of Courier-Mail front pages, each with huge hysterical headlines on the common theme of ‘Labor bad!’.
The LNP saved bigly on printing costs. Rupert was helpfully supplying their posters.
Other thing that is worth stressing regarding the Courier Mail “exit poll” is that is was conducted on Day 2 of pre-poll voting, with no guidance on the time-of-day. It’s not clear that the earliest days of the early-voting period are representative of the overall voting period. Retirees for example are typically regarded as being very present at the start of the early voting period. When we look at the early-votes by division, the divisions with some of the biggest populations of retirees are well out in front.
Oliver: yes Rupert definitely backs the right wing side of politics and might I add not the small l Liberals. I recall some story or another quoting a conversation about Malcolm T. Where Murdoch wanted him gone but more moderate liberal Mr Stokes wanted him to stay. I think the editor of the courier who was chastised and removed was small l as well. A warning to public servants in Qld to finish this, the courier has editorialised ( if that’s a word) that the Qld public service needs to be “right sized” also a former work mate who has connections to the LNP has mentioned to me that behind the small target is an intention to persue a reform agenda. Most know what that means in the LNP ideological format.
This election could have been winnable for Labor had they chosen Cameron Dick.
Miles is a big part of labor’s loss of support- just not credible as premier.
One decision theyll surely regret after Saturday night.
“of Bart Mellish, or maybe even Rob Skelton in Nicklin, a great bloke and very hard working MP.”
@Democracy Sausage
Both are facing a up hill battle. Aspley is traditionally a Bell weather seat which Bart Mellish will have to buck the trend. But Rob Skelton having the second most marginal seat in the state. There is no way I can see him holding Nicklin in conservative sunshine coast.
It hasn’t been all smooth sailing for his LNP challenger Marty Hunt. Hunt has distanced himself from pro-life group Cherish Life who describes Hunt one of their “best advocates”. Which once again brings into question LNP’s credibility on retaining the existing abortion laws.
A stated position on abortion is conspicuous by its absence for most LNP candidates. Stephen Miles is absolutely correct to target this issue. Unlike the LNP beatup on a falling crime rate, the abortion issue has substance. The LNP is obviously setting up for a “conscience vote” to introduce their real agenda.
Miles made some gaffs when he first came to power but he has since then campaigned pretty well.
On the assumption that the you gov poll is OK then the margin is approx 55/45 not the greater than 60/40 of 2012.
This suggests alp to retain about 30 of their 51 seats. I suspect they will win between 25 and 35 seats. The later figure depends upon good luck and maybe a slight improvement on their vote in the last week
I’m sure there will be some way to change the abortion laws that satisfies the prosperity chapel brigade and enables him to slide out of the flimsy commitments he has made to keep the status quo. Crisifulli said he’d resign if crime rates didn’t fall – ( this is an easy one to massage) he gave no such commitment on reproductive rights just not in our plans etc. ALP is right to highlight this as no one will be under any illusions when the changes come as this is part of what you are voting for. Crime and punishment plus a small target on everything else will very likely get them over the line. After this they will pursue an LNP ideological reform agenda with a bit born again religious bizzo thrown in and very easy to do in Qld without an upper house.
I’m with you Mick if the ALPs vote improves somewhat to maybe 33 – 35 PV they can get to 35 seats. The fact that their PV in this YouGov has improved by 5 % is astounding. My gut feeling is this is moving away from the LNP as the campaign has not been good, the ads have been one dimensional or even just fanciful, Crisifulli sounds like Cando Newman and has been unimpressive to say the least. They will win on the crime thing in regional centres but if Labor performs well in SEQ they will be a formidable opponent in the next four years.
Cairns now in play for libs as yesterday a 5 year old on a train In cairns was seriously injured when a rock was thrown through the window.
Crime a big issue and as for the libs they will regret not cutting Katter party lose after Katter party came out about abortion.
Despite Miles having such a good campaign and Crisafulli being so poor Miles still trails as preferred premier 37-36. He needs to grin more.
I think the abortion campaign has helped Labor in Brisbane but likely not so much once you get outside there. Law and order is a bigger issue in the suburbs and regional areas.
I am not surprised. Miles is acting like a used car salesman. Free this, that and the other. Offering no explanations on how all this free stuff will be implemented, but we have seen people love free stuff, even though it is not free and will only add to the significant Queensland debt. You only have to look at the gabba debacle to see what sort of a leader he is. He said it was the best bang for buck plan for a stadium. Then apparently it comes out the figure to rebuild it was all made up. Now he wants to spend billions on a demountable stadium.
The LNP on the other hand have really dropped the ball on abortion. Of all the issues with the state, all the people needlessly dying on unmaintained substandard roads, women due to labor shutting maternity facilities having their babies on the sides of roads and high birthing deaths and the high taxation, huge amount of regulations driving up the cost of living. You would think abortion laws would be the furthermost things on their mind.
As for the Katter’s, why would anyone vote for them in a mystery. What has Bob Katter ever done besides be a big noise.
While the article says the 2PP in this poll is 55-45 the graph in the article shows it as 54.5-45.5. I am not sure which is correct.
The Katter Party (or at least some candidates) have now come out for corporal punishment for kids. What sort of 1940’s outback Queensland parallel universe are they living in?
Alli King Bribie Island bridge fraud. Queensland Labor does not have a work policy. They have a human rights policy. Therefore Labor does not have the money to build a 2nd bridge to Bribie. If they do, Queensland Labor would take more assets away from our family nest eggs and we will be left with nothing, no investments at all. LNP has a work program and that means work policy which means family assets and investments policy and that means employment. So when Alli King says anything about building a 2nd Bribie bridge she’s all bluff and fraud. After the election has been and gone the 50 cents transport fare will cease to exist and they’ll deny there was any 50 cent transport fare with forgetfulness.
Blackburnpseph: “The Katter Party (or at least some candidates) have now come out for corporal punishment for kids. What sort of 1940’s outback Queensland parallel universe are they living in?”
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Ah, takes me back to the era in which Russ Hinze proposed to castrate all rapists.
And, when asked by a journo what he would do if the accused was later shown to have been falsely convicted, he replied (demonstrating a considerable lack of understanding of the procedure), “Well perhaps they could sew him on a new one.”
Queensland politicians: a rare breed. But that’s all I’m going to say about the topic because in North Queensland someone gets torn to pieces by a crocodile every three months.
Kevin based on the primaries 54.5 looks about correct. I guess they rounded up for the headline.
@davidwh “Kevin based on the primaries 54.5 looks about correct. I guess they rounded up for the headline”
They should have rounded down: 54-46 looks a little closer!!!
If you polled 0.5% better in a down the wire seat you would be happy
Story about Russ Hinze
He was booked by a young cop for speeding. He stopped pulled out a map of Queensland.
“son do you know who I am?
I am your boss the police minister ”
He pointed to part of Queensland in the middle of nowhere
“Would you like to be transferred there?”
(Cannot vouch for the truth of this story… but. …..)
Most polls round to whole numbers. It could be 54.6 we don’t really know.
Mick Russ Hinze never. 🙂
Back then he owned the Oxendord Hotel and main roads just happened to construct an off ramp to the hotel and back on again to the Pacific Highway. It was very grand for those days.
Oh yes Hinze was minister for main roads as well.
The Colossus of Roads, as the popular nickname had it.
Warrigal if it wasn’t so serious it would be funny.
+1, davidwh. Indeed.
Amjid: if they’d rounded it down to 54-46 I’d have got very excited. Miles has shaved 2.5 % of the LNPs TPP lets see if he can poach another 2 -3% if so maybe Katter, PHON and LNP coalition. That should go well lol!!!
How often has it happened that a losing premier has contested the next election? I’m starting to think the Miles would deserve another shot, but it’s pretty much never happened right? At least not post-war?
If Miles can close the gap a little more, and be very purposeful with seat targeting… I still think he loses too many seats. Townsville x3, Mackay, Hervey Bay, Nicklin, Bundaberg, and one of the Cairns 4, Keppel or Caloundra is enough for an LNP+KAP government. That’s assuming he manages to ward off seat losing swings in SEQ. Not seeing any evidence he can pick up Chatsworth or Currumbin and Greens are only half heartedly targeting Clayfield and Moggill, so the only way is down. Miles may be able to figure out something like the 2017 NZ government? But he’ll probably just take the L, and hope the new government doesn’t last long.
Taking the L would be the right move, long game wise. We hear a lot about how disastrous a Labor-Green minority could be for Labor’s future prospects. Would be helpful to be exposed to a disastrous LNP one first, assuming the Greens aren’t going anywhere.
It looks to me like the abortion issue and general threat of Crisafulli running a wingnut government is causing an erosion of the LNP lead and his personal ratings, but it isn’t going to be enough to do for the large lead they have.
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davidwhsays:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 1:12 pm
Kevin based on the primaries 54.5 looks about correct. I guess they rounded up for the headline.
”
david
In 2022 NSW State election, NSW Labor 2PP was 54.1% but they still couldn’t get majority seats. Incumbent LNP government won all the close seats on the day of election night in the later postal vote counting and thus denied Labor majority.
In 1991 NSW State Election, in the last week of campaign Nick Greiner LNP lead Bob Carr Labor 58-42 on 2PP but couldn’t get majority of seats after the vote count. LNP final 2PP was something like 52.75%.
So if QLD LNP is around 53% 2pp after final count things could get interesting.
What would 53/47
Or 52/48 do?
Hung parliament?
Ahh, the glory days, Russ Hinze, Minister for Local Government and Main Roads, Minister for Racing, Minister for Police… no mere lightweight, he could get things done, and often did.
It’s QLD and it’s an election so anything is possible. However assuming a linear loss of support ongoing is probably a stretch given the feeling outside of Brisbane. Time will tell, only six more days.
The other factor is that 20% of people have already voted early under the current polling indicators so Labor would need to improve significantly from the indicated position shown by this poll.
Hard to see the situation deteriorating for the LNP sufficiently to end up with a minority government or hung parliament but as I said above it is QLD so anything is possible.
The LNP and the Crisafulli ‘ndrina.
Good luck with that, Banana Benders.
Mick Quinlivan, a 47%-53% result, would, given an even swing, produce 39-47 with 7 cross benchers, subject to any additions or subtractions from the cross bench. That comes from a swing 47%-53% being about a 6% from the 2020 result – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Queensland_state_election.
But I think such a swing would probably see the LNP pick up at least one crossbench seat as well, so probably more like 39-48-6.
However if seats like Mackay are in play, as discussed by others on this site previously, then the LNP would probably win half a dozen more again.
Personally however I think that 47% TPP for the ALP is wishful thinking. I previously predicted somewhere three either side of 25 seats, am now thinking maybe 30.
I would be very interested to know if Nadia, who has previously predicted less ALP seats, has modified her expectations at all.
Ah, takes me back to the era in which Russ Hinze proposed to castrate all rapists.
And, when asked by a journo what he would do if the accused was later shown to have been falsely convicted, he replied (demonstrating a considerable lack of understanding of the procedure), “Well perhaps they could sew him on a new one.”
What he actually said:
“Well, we’ll give him a bigger, better one.”
Then, as now, there was wailing and breast beating by the usual suspects.
This polling is largely as expected, with a few quirks.
– The Katter vote. Incredibly low. Maybe old mate from Mirani will be looking for a new job on Saturday? Who knows what is happening in Mulgrave but it cannot be good for Katter, surely?
– Greens vote is confusing. Once bitten, twice shy, when it comes to Brisbane projections after the 2022 federal election. Are they underestimating again? Is there a systematic issue in talking to a representative section of the population when the ‘young people’ are involved? The primary positioning between Labor, LNP and Greens is a mess in Cooper and McConnel.
I have had a beer at the Russ Hinze Bar. Long live his name. Along with that of the philandering almighty National Party stalwarts that made us what we are today. Bless.
Back then he owned the Oxendord Hotel and main roads just happened to construct an off ramp to the hotel and back on again to the Pacific Highway. It was very grand for those days.
His brother in law was Licensing Commissioner.
Came unstuck with the Oxenford TAB licence, he had to return that.
On defeated Premiers, well, there hasn’t been that many.
Gair held South Brisbane in ’57, was defeated in ’60, got top spot on the DLP ticket for the 1964 Half Senate Election, was defeated at the ’74 DD.
Russell Cooper was [losing] Premier in 1989, was in the Borbidge Cabinet, retired in 2001.
Anna Bligh announced her resignation a couple of days after losing in 2012, Newman lost his seat in 2015.
Miles is on track to lose his seat, history says it’s highly likely that this LNP Government will only last a Term, if he hangs on Labor won’t want a byelection.
To clarify I was wondering about Premiers of any state, was pretty certain there hadn’t been any examples in Queensland.
pied pipersays:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 10:43 am
Cairns now in play for libs as yesterday a 5 year old on a train In cairns was seriously injured when a rock was thrown through the window.
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The kids who do this sort of thing are products of their deadbeat relatives. I’m sorry to say it but putting repeat offenders in juvie (regardless of age) would probably be a better outcome than leaving them with their parents. Give them an education and worthwhile activities to do while in juvie, and limit contact with their deadbeat relatives.