Live updated results from the Australian Capital Territory, Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater.
End of Saturday night
To summarise, the Liberals have had a disappointing result in the Australian Capital Territory, looking to have gained only one seat from their starting point of nine out of 25 and not even being assured of that. Labor has held steady on ten seats, despite its vote share being down by three to four points. The Greens have failed to match a best-ever result in 2020, but the cut in the party’s representation from six seats to three (or possibly four if things go their way in Brindabella) reflected only a slight drop in vote share. Of particular note was the election of two independents for the first time since the 1990s, dove-tailing with the emergence of David Pocock on the federal scene. With Labor and the Greens set to retain a combined majority, they face a marginal position in the new parliament.
Another notable independent win was chalked up last night by Jacqui Scruby in the New South Wales state by-election for Pittwater. Scruby fell 0.7% short of being the only teal independent to gain a seat at the March 2023 election, which she has accounted for on my projection with a swing of about 5%. In this she was no doubt aided by the ignominious circumstances of Liberal member Rory Amon’s departure, and also by both Labor and the Greens leaving the field vacant for her. Labor also did not contest yesterday’s by-elections for Epping and Hornsby, respectively vacated by Dominic Perrottet and Matt Kean, where Liberal candidates Monica Tudehope and James Wallace both looked to have scored majorities on the primary vote.
Live commentary
9.46pm. Another update from Brindabella has the Liberals down from 2.58 quotas to 2.57 and the Greens up from 0.54 to 0.55.
9.26pm. The Brindabella preliminary distribution, which was calculated before the weakening of the Liberals’ position, had Labor’s Mick Gentleman, who is fighting for his and Labor’s third seat, excluded with 3708 votes to the third Liberal’s 4218, or 14.3% of the total to 12.6%.
9.19pm. Kevin Bonham can further discern a scenario where Brindabella comes out at Labor three and Liberal two, rather than the other way around. Clearly this is the electorate that will be the main focus of interest in the late count.
9.08pm. I’m not sure whether it’s because of the correction of the Chisholm booth error or a substantial addition of new votes, but the Liberals’ third seat in Brindabella no longer looks secure. The Liberals have a 2.58 quotas (a 9.7% surplus over the second quota), the Greens 0.54 (9.0%) and Independents for Canberra 0.45 (7.5%), leaving preferences from the latter the decisive factor in whether the Greens can yet pull an iron out of the fire here. The preliminary preference distribution has the Independents for Canberra preference going 30.5% to Labor, 19.2% to the Greens and only 13.1% to the Liberals, with 37.2% exhausting. That suggests to me the Liberals will need the fillip they are presumably likely to get from postals to hold out against the Greens.
9.03pm. Nothing in the preference distribution to doubt the earlier assessment of Kurrajong as two Labor and one each for Liberal, Greens and independent Thomas Emerson, the latter taking the Greens’ second seat.
8.55pm. No surprises in the distribution for Brindabella, a clear result of Liberal three and Labor two. Ginninderra is as expected projected as a status quo result of Labor two, Liberal two, Greens on. Jo Clay of the Greens gets the last seat by surviving ahead of Mark Richardson of Independents for Canberra by 13.6% to 10.6% at the decisive point of the late count.
8.46pm. Preliminary preference distributions have been published on the ACT Electoral Commission site, which I’ll now be poring over.
8.45pm. Antony Green on the ABC notes all 900 votes from the Chisholm booth in Brindabella have been allocated to the Liberals, an obvious error. However, its correction won’t fundamentally change the situation there.
7.58pm. So it looks to me like the Liberals are gaining a seat from the Greens in Brindabella, and independents are gaining seats from the Greens in Kurrajong and Murrumbidgee. That would leave Labor steady on ten seats but reduce their coalition partners in the Greens from six to three, while leaving them with a combined majority of 13 out of 25. The Liberals would at least gain parity with Labor on ten seats, but be unable to gain a majority even if the two independents supported them.
7.52pm. Yerrabi looks like a status quo result in every particular, returning incumbents Michael Pettersson and Suzanne Orr of Labor, Leanne Castley and James Milligan of Liberal, and Andrew Braddock of the Greens.
7.49pm. My system is now calling Pittwater for Jacqui Scruby (and I believe that’s despite a glitch in the projection that’s favouring the Liberals by a handful of votes).
7.48pm. A second independent looks like being elected in Murrumbidgee — Fiona Carrick, at the expense of Emma Davidson of the Greens, with Labor (incumbents Chris Steel and Marisa Paterson) and Liberal (incumbents Jeremy Hanson and Ed Cocks) remaining on two each.
7.44pm. Kurrajong, which went two Labor, two Greens and one Liberal in 2020, looks like electing Thomas Emerson, Independents for Canberra candidate and son of former federal Labor minister Craig Emerson. This is disappointing for the Liberals who look like remaining stalled on one seat (Elizabeth Lee’s), with the others going two Labor (Andrew Barr and Rachel Stephen-Smith re-elected) and one Greens (Shane Rattenbury re-elected, Rebecca Vassarotti failing to retain the Greens’ second seat).
7.33pm. Ginninderra looks like a status quo result of two each for Labor and Liberal and one for the Greens. Labor incumbents Yvette Berry and Tara Cheyne will be re-elected, as will the only recontesting Liberal, Peter Cain, likely to be joined by Chiaka Barry. Jo Clay should be returned for the Greens.
7.21pm. Antony Green says the ABC computer is calling Pittwater for Jacqui Scruby. I’ve got her probability at 97.4%, and don’t call it until 99%.
7.18pm. I’ll now go through the ACT seats alphabetically. Brindabella looks like Liberal three and Labor two, with the Liberals taking a seat from the Greens. The only contesting Liberal incumbent, Mark Parton, has a quota on his own, with Deborah Morris (especially) and James Daniel looking good for the other two. Labor’s only contesting incumbent, Mick Gentleman, is coming third on his party’s ticket, behind Caitlin Tough and Tamius Werner-Gibbings, the latter of whom had to fight for preselection.
7.06pm. As my projection suggested it would, a fourth booth from Pittwater has moderated Jacqui Scruby’s lead. We also have, very early, a batch of postals, breaking 743-606 to Liberal. So Scruby will need her lead on the booth results. She’s very well placed, but my system still isn’t calling it.
7.03pm. I believe it was just the one bug, and it’s now fixed.
6.58pm. Bugs in my ACT page: pretty much everything in the summary table at the bottom of the entry page, and the bar charts on the seat pages are misbehaving. Initial impression is that the Liberals are doing very well in Brindabella, but more modestly elsewhere.
6.53pm. Thanks to the magic of electronic voting, a massive influx of results from the ACT.
6.51pm. Three booths in from Pittwater, and I’m projecting Jacqui Scruby with 55.6% TCP when her raw primary vote is 58.7%, so presumably these are from good areas for her. My system isn’t quite giving it away yet though.
6.48pm. Three booths in from Epping, Liberal candidate on nearly two-thirds of the vote.
6.43pm. Two booths from Pittwater look hugely encouraging for independent Jacqui Scruby, her primary vote at over 60% in both.
6.42pm. Sixty-nine votes from Wisemans Ferry offers nothing to disabuse the assumption that a Liberal win in Hornsby is a formality.
6pm. Polls are closed for each of the above-mentioned electoral events, which you can read a lot more about through the election guides at the top of the sidebar. My results page for the by-elections offer booth-matched swings and projections and full results at booth level in map and tabular form. The ACT page is more elementary – no results at booth level and the swings simply compare the current results with the final ones from 2020.
Ven says:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 9:29 am
It’s the ACT. The only State or Territory to have a positive Yes vote. It is filled with civil servants and academics who rely on the government for their higher than average salaries. I would expect the ALP-Greens to keep winning for another 20 years just as I never expect the Liberals to win the seat of Fremantle – State or Federal.
Reflections:
Labor down 3.3% despite the fact they ran the best campaign by a big margin. Vision, dedication, focus, candidate vetting. Drop in vote explained by 23 years and return to earth from 2020 covid boost.
Liberals: must be disappointed. Light rail aside, they did well at presenting as viable in the 6 months before the election. Went to shit during the campaign.
Greens: they basically flipped 5 coins in 2020 and got 5 heads. They did alright to keep it to a 1% swing against, with IFC running. Of course, a 1% swing and some unlucky coin flips can have a big impact on seats. That said, 13 is the magic number and they’ve been lucky here in 10/10/3/2. Anyone calling it an impact of Gaza, housing or being in government is wrong. Greens vote decreased because IFC ran and did well. A 3PP count of 2020 and 2024 would be very useful, and would likely show a slight swing to greens and liberals at labor’s expense.
Independents: did very well, congrats to them. Will be interesting to see how they go in the term, noting they’re unable to help anyone reach 13.
Bullshit.
The sun by the Teal was because a Pedo had to resign so the Lib was pushing poo uphill with a pointy stick. That’s all it means.
‘Hugoaugogo says:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 9:16 am
Luigi – agree that there’s probably little in the way of omens for the federal poll, with a few exceptions exceptions:
1. The win by the Teal in Pittwater suggests that the Federal Teals will all be re-elected next year.
2. The small decline in the Green vote suggests that they are currently at their ceiling, and that they might be taking a small hit among their better off voters , perhaps over their perceived obstructionism, perhaps over Gaza, perhaps both.
3. Labor’s vote and seat share may well hold up better than expected.
4. The ACT is getting increasingly comfortable with independents, possibly a good sign for Pocock.
I don’t mean to overstate any of these, though – there’s only so much we’ll find taking through the ashes of an ACT election and a few by-elections in Tory Sydney.’
————————
IMO the lessons are:
1. Federal Labor needs to focus on the outer suburbs.
2. The Federal Extreme Greens are damaging the Greens brand.
3. The main vote for the Indies basically came from a rebranding exercise. Outfits like PHON, UAP and the Progressive Party disappeared and a motley crew of independents popped up. They also gobbled up a goodly share of the Animal Justice Party vote. Emerson is a left Indie and Carrick is a right Indie so they basically cancel each other out.
4. The Indies basically promised process and principles. Nowhere in the principles was the notion that someone has to pay for the spend and nowhere in the principles was there the notion that politics is about allocating scarce resources. In a way the Indies are fortunate in the ACT that they will not be held to account because they are, at this stage of the vote, unlikely to have any power to abuse.
5. The Greens face their inherent Catch 22. They can’t be both a party of protest and a party of government. How they try to resolve this fundamental issue remains to be seen.
6. The successful Independents ran highly-organized and extremely energetic local campaigns.
7. The Greens and the Liberals failed to do proper candidate vetting.
8. Labor ran a professional campaign that responded to signals along the way.
Yet another seat lost by the Liberals to the Teals.
We all know that one of the reasons the Teals took off was because of a decade of Coalition contempt for women, especially for the quota girls.
It is hardly surprising that when yet another Liberal MP has to go because of lack of respect type sordid behaviour, that he was replaced by a Teal.
That is not exceptional. It is becoming the rule.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/19/australia-labor-retain-power-in-act-election-but-lose-ground-to-liberals
Fubar….
Your Teal bet in Curtin is looking somewhat less than the lay-down misere you were touting not so long ago. And that seat that went Teal in NSW in Liberal heart land. The Liberals will struggle come the elections in 2025.
The Fiona Carrick thingy in Murrumbidgee in the ACT Election was very Tealish in all but the colour of the T-shirts.
The Teals aren’t going anywhere !
The messages that I will take out of the ACT and Sydney votes is that the Greens need to concentrate more on any/every other independent – especially ones likely to appeal to their wavering older voters – rather than doing battle with Labor. The Greens seem unlikely to appeal to a wavering Laborite.
And the Liberals need to focus more on the small-l liberal Teals who appeal to their wavering educated voters. Each separate Teal can get away with not having a suite of policies. They just need one or two biggies. A major party cannot do that. They need to put some intellectual thought into a coherent set of policies that might advance the nation. Quelle horreur!! The well educated voters expect a party to stand for something. I suspect that the Libs are already aware of their destiny as the substantive right fringe party, hence the focus on the dog-whistle appeal to the less well educated demographic of the western burbs.
Labor is losing ground, but not much. Again, the electorate is searching for somewhere – not the Libs or Greens- to land their discontent vote. I suspect that is a prominent cleanskin local candidate. The Pocock or Emerson kinda person.
‘Boerwar says:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 11:14 am
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/19/australia-labor-retain-power-in-act-election-but-lose-ground-to-liberals‘
==================
The Guardian has it in for Labor. Labor lost nothing to the Liberals. Nothing. It kept its ten seats. It ended up with a higher vote than the Liberals.
The only issue in town is cost of living / interest rates.
It’s all anyone actually cares about when they cast their vote.
The complaint against Albo and Co is …. they are very timid and Cost of Living.
The only complaint against Biden/Harris is cost of living.
The ACT election was a nil-all draw. Greens lost their lucky breaks last time but otherwise nothing changed.
If anyone thinks the Libs have any ideas on cost of living they are suffering he willing suspension of disbelief.
Im delighted to see another Teal get up. Delighted to see the Libs saying that too was a one off! Hoe many ones off can they bear? None! Quick, bring me some more sand to put my head in!
citizen @ #240 Sunday, October 20th, 2024 – 8:52 am
She keeps trying to paint Woden as some undeveloped backwater where people are doing it tough when it is one of the most well serviced and affluent parts of the country.
Yes, the pool shut down. Boo-hoo. It’ll re-open soon.
What’s happens with the speaker in ACT LA. The government needs 13 + the speaker? The speaker takes a vote away from the assembly?
Voters in the ACT would clearly like to choose Independents ahead of Liberals. This was observable in the ACT as well as other jurisdictions at the last election. There is no reason for this to change. The Reactionaries remain essentially unelectable with the sole exception of Queensland. The Teals are a destination for every sometime Liberal voter responding on the issues of climate change, the role of evangelicals in politics and the representation/inclusion of women in politics.
The Liberal Party – these days a tiny outfit run by and for the super-rich, religious extremists, lobbyists and careerists – no longer aspires to represent their once-most-loyal ranks. They have in fact betrayed these voters.
Good riddance to the Liberal Party….a political scam if there ever was one.
Chris, like the Federal Senate, the ACT Speaker gets a deliberative vote – so count them in the 10 votes Labor has
Dutton’s tactic for winning back some Teal seats is by being over the top pro-Israel, even more pro-Israel than the US government. That’s all he has to offer in regards to these seats. Dutton has an obvious, visible disdain for most people who live within 15km of a capital city’s CBD, so I don’t think this tactic is enough to overcome voters perception of that.
There will be a new Speaker. The previous incumbent, Joy Burch, did not recontest in this election.
‘Stooge says:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 2:04 pm
Voters in the ACT would clearly like to choose Independents ahead of Liberals.
…’
==============
There is a fair bit of dizzy talk around the Independents.
Around a third of the electorate preferred the Liberals.
Around a tenth of the electorate preferred Independents.
On the figures, the electorate prefers Liberals to Independents.
‘S. Simpson says:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 2:27 pm
Dutton’s tactic for winning back some Teal seats is by being over the top pro-Israel….’
===================
My guess is that this behaviour is targeted at shoring up the Islamophobic fundies rather than at seats with concentrations of jewish voters.
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 10:26 am
Yet another seat lost by the Liberals to the Teals.
We all know that one of the reasons the Teals took off was because of a decade of Coalition contempt for women, especially for the quota girls.
——————————–
There are votes in supporting quotas 😉
It’s well worth having a read of Kevin Bonham’s post (on his website) about the last spot in Brindabella. As it stands there is a realistic prospect that the Liberals will not win the last seat in doubt, with both Greens and Labor a real chance of winning. There will be updated distributions at the close of counting each day this week as more votes get scanned. The distribution figures published on Saturday night only reflect electronic voting – paper votes still need to be scanned and added to the distribution count.
O
Thanks.
@outsider – good to have my insanity validated by Kevin B.
I also swear IFC have got to be favourites in ginn?
1.52 quota vs 0.45.
Libs will leak more quota from internal, because they have 0.55 in their irrelevant two compared to 0.22 for IFC.
Then, IFC should do better on labor’s .26 quota, and should do better on the minor parties?
Sure, the greens will soak up 0.11 of the left preferences. But still
Hi VE. Remember that Hare Clark counts are not the same as Senate counts – there is no “team” quota. It is the individual who gets elected. And voters get to choose their preferences – there is no “ticket” voting. Kevin Bonham explains why with leakage of preferences, IFC has no hope in Ginninderra. Brindabella on the other hand is going to be a 3 way shootout to the end!
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/10/act-2024-postcount.html
ACT 2024 Postcount
This is my thread where I’ll track the remaining counting in the ACT. I am especially watching:
* Brindabella, where the last seat is a very messy battle between probably the Greens and Liberals with a remote (and really weird) chance for Labor.
* Murrumbidgee where there is a very tight and also somewhat complicated contest between Liberals Ed Cocks and Amardeep Singh
I don’t think anything else is competitive.
Re Ginninderra the thing is that I4C are being killed by leakage and also there are a lot of conservative prefs helping the Liberals in that seat.
Elizabeth Lee today admitted that the hard-right (Seselja) clique is still active in the ACT Liberals and this was a contributing factor to their loss. She agreed with Nicole Lauder’s observation last night that there are some in the party more interested in internal party ideological warfare than winning votes.
@kb
Thanks. I hadn’t realised IFC preference leakage was so high.
And I assumed Kikkert voters would put liberals last or near as revenge for the ‘knifing’. Sounds like people voting on policy not personally.
I did wonder about how “sticky” the I4C vote would be in a Hare-Clarke given that “Independents” are about individuals. Turns out not very sticky.
Nearly half the preferences with Kikkert at exclusion went to the Liberals, over half the rest exhausted, the remainder scattered with I4C doing best.
KB,
In your expected results for Yerrabi, you have James Milligan as “ALP” – he should be “Lib.”
(Labor gaining a seat would have been exciting!)
Stooge says:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 2:04 pm
“The Liberal Party – these days a tiny outfit run by and for the super-rich, religious extremists, lobbyists and careerists – no longer aspires to represent their once-most-loyal ranks. They have in fact betrayed these voters.”
———–
And real estate agents. Don’t forget the real estate agents.
Boerwar says:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 2:57 pm
‘S. Simpson says:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 2:27 pm
Dutton’s tactic for winning back some Teal seats is by being over the top pro-Israel….’
===================
My guess is that this behaviour is targeted at shoring up the Islamophobic fundies rather than at seats with concentrations of jewish voters.
______________________________________________
Absolutely correct. And pro=Palestinian muslims in Australia are doing themselves a disservice by being so strident. Just stokes Islamaphobia.
Ta, the Milligan typo has been fixed. I only ever have time to write this stuff not to edit it!
I thought about putting a “gremlin watch” contact form on the sidebar where people could notify me of typos without having to email me, but discovered that any anonymous person could use it to send me abuse just as easily so decided not to.
S.Simpson @ 2.28pm
Pittwater is much further than 15km from the centre of Sydney.
It is the outermost, northern electorate of the northern beaches of Sydney.
This is the first time that this seat, or its successors, has been represented by a non-Tory candidate.
The presence of a Labor/Green candidate would have been immaterial to this outcome.
The lack of either party running a candidate was sensible and tactical.
I am sure that at the coming Federal Election they will field candidates more to maximise their Senate quota, than to win the seat.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the majority of ALP/ Green voters preference Dr Scamps first, and then give their second preference to their favoured party.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/20/losing-heartland-seat-to-teal-jacqui-scruby-marks-continuing-decline-nsw-liberal-party-northern-sydney
“1. The win by the Teal in Pittwater suggests that the Federal Teals will all be re-elected next year.”
Hmmm. . . that’s a lot to extrapolate from one by-election. Certainly there must still be an appetite for the kind of politics the Teals present, and generally they are organisationally very strong.
But OTOH, it’s much safer to vote for a Teal at a by-election knowing it won’t do anything to change the make-up of the government than to do it at a GE. Maybe many voters went for the Teal – esp given the performance of the disgraced Lib she was replacing – but who will want Lab out at the next election, for example. Then they have a dilemma. At the by-election, they have no such dilemma or need to have qualms supporting the Teal.
The Liberals lost a gimme. They are in opposition. The Minns Government is less than popular.
There was no Labor candidate.
There was no Greens candidate.
A two horse race. And the Liberals lost it.
Naturally the Liberals will go everywhere in a search for answers except where the obvious answer lies. The Liberals should stop treating women like it is the 1950s.
At one level I am happy for the Liberals to keep doing this.
Except for one thing. The Coalition treatment of women was highly destructive and nowhere constructive. The symbolism of Abbott dressing his daughters in virginal white was not a flash in the pan. It said something deep about the Liberal Party. Dutton is not a skerrick removed from Abbott.
The reporting in this organ has been almost manic in its support for Independents. They have been getting a hugely disproportionate air time.
And they still can’t let it go.
https://citynews.com.au/2024/will-elizabeth-lee-regret-conceding-to-labor/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
It’s on!
The Trogs are back at the gate!
Hanson is going to have a go at Lee’s job.
Boerwar @ #290 Monday, October 21st, 2024 – 3:36 pm
How far to the right is he?
The Liberals have gained microscopically on today’s count in Brindabella, but if they were postals or mostly postals, it won’t be enough.
It’s not over, but the Greens must be clear favourites now to take the final seat.
Macca RB:
Not quite. The Libs also lost it at a by-election in 2005, after John Brogden flamed out. They got it back in 2007.
This part of Sydney having independent MPs isn’t a new thing (whether you want to call them “teal” or not). Pittwater, North Shore, Manly and North Shore have all had them in the past, and Wakehurst came to the party in 2023.
Bird of Paradise @ 9.02pm.
Thanks for that reminder of John Brogden.
I also remember that the ALP actually won Manly in the 1978 Wranslide election, too!
North Sydney has always been an interesting seat.
It will be interesting to see the contests in the redistributed northern Sydney electorates in 2025.
Hopefully, Bennelong will remain red and that an Indie can end Paul Fletcher’s career in Bradfield.
It would be nice to have a late counting thread for the ACT election – specifically the Brindabella count, in which the Greens have overtaken the Liberals for the 5th seat, by the barest of margins – if I am reading the spreadsheet correctly, by a margin of 37 votes. Note that 51,000 of the first preference votes have been input to the distribution spreadsheet by end of counting today – out of total first preferences of 54,700. More excitement to come tomorrow, no doubt, with such a thin margin and more votes still to get included. I note that at the critical exclusion point Labor’s 3rd candidate Mick Gentleman is only 50 behind the Greens’ candidate Nuttall. Gentleman is not out of the running by any means. It’s a 3 way toss-up. I doubt we will know for sure which way this one falls until early next week, when all votes are counted.
I misread the fine print in the spreadsheet – Gentleman was 350 behind Nuttall – so it looks like a 2 way contest between the Greens and Liberals
Antony Green:
“On Saturday night the party numbers were Labor ten, Liberal ten, Greens three, Independents for Canberra one, Fiona Carrick Independent one. On counts released today (Wednesday 23 October) the numbers now look likely to be Labor ten, Liberal nine, Greens four, Independents for Canberra one, Fiona Carrick Independent one.”
Greens 4, I’ll take it.
The Liberals have gone backwards since the 2020 election when they won 10 seats (I know technically they were at 9 pre election, but that’s because one of their elected members turned independent). There is a slight change in the dynamics of the Government with the Greens losing 2 seats to the independents, but nothing of substance. As with Labor being able to say they won the most seats – which is a nice thing to say in terms of legitimacy but in reality doesn’t mean much at all. I would be surprised if Labor tries to go it alone as a minority government relying on cross bench support, but you never know!
Small correction – the Liberals had nine seats following the 2020 election (Labor 10, Liberal 9, Green 6). Just before this election the party disendorsed Elizabeth Kikkert for (alleged) electoral misadventure and bullying a staffer. Apparently they had insufficient time to choose another candidate so they had only four names on the ballot for Ginninderra. Kikkert then stood for Family First.
It’s all over including the shouting. The Greens are 300+ votes clear and will take the final seat.
Thanks, Kevin Bonham, for the analysis on your blog.