Live updated results from the Australian Capital Territory, Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater.
End of Saturday night
To summarise, the Liberals have had a disappointing result in the Australian Capital Territory, looking to have gained only one seat from their starting point of nine out of 25 and not even being assured of that. Labor has held steady on ten seats, despite its vote share being down by three to four points. The Greens have failed to match a best-ever result in 2020, but the cut in the party’s representation from six seats to three (or possibly four if things go their way in Brindabella) reflected only a slight drop in vote share. Of particular note was the election of two independents for the first time since the 1990s, dove-tailing with the emergence of David Pocock on the federal scene. With Labor and the Greens set to retain a combined majority, they face a marginal position in the new parliament.
Another notable independent win was chalked up last night by Jacqui Scruby in the New South Wales state by-election for Pittwater. Scruby fell 0.7% short of being the only teal independent to gain a seat at the March 2023 election, which she has accounted for on my projection with a swing of about 5%. In this she was no doubt aided by the ignominious circumstances of Liberal member Rory Amon’s departure, and also by both Labor and the Greens leaving the field vacant for her. Labor also did not contest yesterday’s by-elections for Epping and Hornsby, respectively vacated by Dominic Perrottet and Matt Kean, where Liberal candidates Monica Tudehope and James Wallace both looked to have scored majorities on the primary vote.
Live commentary
9.46pm. Another update from Brindabella has the Liberals down from 2.58 quotas to 2.57 and the Greens up from 0.54 to 0.55.
9.26pm. The Brindabella preliminary distribution, which was calculated before the weakening of the Liberals’ position, had Labor’s Mick Gentleman, who is fighting for his and Labor’s third seat, excluded with 3708 votes to the third Liberal’s 4218, or 14.3% of the total to 12.6%.
9.19pm. Kevin Bonham can further discern a scenario where Brindabella comes out at Labor three and Liberal two, rather than the other way around. Clearly this is the electorate that will be the main focus of interest in the late count.
9.08pm. I’m not sure whether it’s because of the correction of the Chisholm booth error or a substantial addition of new votes, but the Liberals’ third seat in Brindabella no longer looks secure. The Liberals have a 2.58 quotas (a 9.7% surplus over the second quota), the Greens 0.54 (9.0%) and Independents for Canberra 0.45 (7.5%), leaving preferences from the latter the decisive factor in whether the Greens can yet pull an iron out of the fire here. The preliminary preference distribution has the Independents for Canberra preference going 30.5% to Labor, 19.2% to the Greens and only 13.1% to the Liberals, with 37.2% exhausting. That suggests to me the Liberals will need the fillip they are presumably likely to get from postals to hold out against the Greens.
9.03pm. Nothing in the preference distribution to doubt the earlier assessment of Kurrajong as two Labor and one each for Liberal, Greens and independent Thomas Emerson, the latter taking the Greens’ second seat.
8.55pm. No surprises in the distribution for Brindabella, a clear result of Liberal three and Labor two. Ginninderra is as expected projected as a status quo result of Labor two, Liberal two, Greens on. Jo Clay of the Greens gets the last seat by surviving ahead of Mark Richardson of Independents for Canberra by 13.6% to 10.6% at the decisive point of the late count.
8.46pm. Preliminary preference distributions have been published on the ACT Electoral Commission site, which I’ll now be poring over.
8.45pm. Antony Green on the ABC notes all 900 votes from the Chisholm booth in Brindabella have been allocated to the Liberals, an obvious error. However, its correction won’t fundamentally change the situation there.
7.58pm. So it looks to me like the Liberals are gaining a seat from the Greens in Brindabella, and independents are gaining seats from the Greens in Kurrajong and Murrumbidgee. That would leave Labor steady on ten seats but reduce their coalition partners in the Greens from six to three, while leaving them with a combined majority of 13 out of 25. The Liberals would at least gain parity with Labor on ten seats, but be unable to gain a majority even if the two independents supported them.
7.52pm. Yerrabi looks like a status quo result in every particular, returning incumbents Michael Pettersson and Suzanne Orr of Labor, Leanne Castley and James Milligan of Liberal, and Andrew Braddock of the Greens.
7.49pm. My system is now calling Pittwater for Jacqui Scruby (and I believe that’s despite a glitch in the projection that’s favouring the Liberals by a handful of votes).
7.48pm. A second independent looks like being elected in Murrumbidgee — Fiona Carrick, at the expense of Emma Davidson of the Greens, with Labor (incumbents Chris Steel and Marisa Paterson) and Liberal (incumbents Jeremy Hanson and Ed Cocks) remaining on two each.
7.44pm. Kurrajong, which went two Labor, two Greens and one Liberal in 2020, looks like electing Thomas Emerson, Independents for Canberra candidate and son of former federal Labor minister Craig Emerson. This is disappointing for the Liberals who look like remaining stalled on one seat (Elizabeth Lee’s), with the others going two Labor (Andrew Barr and Rachel Stephen-Smith re-elected) and one Greens (Shane Rattenbury re-elected, Rebecca Vassarotti failing to retain the Greens’ second seat).
7.33pm. Ginninderra looks like a status quo result of two each for Labor and Liberal and one for the Greens. Labor incumbents Yvette Berry and Tara Cheyne will be re-elected, as will the only recontesting Liberal, Peter Cain, likely to be joined by Chiaka Barry. Jo Clay should be returned for the Greens.
7.21pm. Antony Green says the ABC computer is calling Pittwater for Jacqui Scruby. I’ve got her probability at 97.4%, and don’t call it until 99%.
7.18pm. I’ll now go through the ACT seats alphabetically. Brindabella looks like Liberal three and Labor two, with the Liberals taking a seat from the Greens. The only contesting Liberal incumbent, Mark Parton, has a quota on his own, with Deborah Morris (especially) and James Daniel looking good for the other two. Labor’s only contesting incumbent, Mick Gentleman, is coming third on his party’s ticket, behind Caitlin Tough and Tamius Werner-Gibbings, the latter of whom had to fight for preselection.
7.06pm. As my projection suggested it would, a fourth booth from Pittwater has moderated Jacqui Scruby’s lead. We also have, very early, a batch of postals, breaking 743-606 to Liberal. So Scruby will need her lead on the booth results. She’s very well placed, but my system still isn’t calling it.
7.03pm. I believe it was just the one bug, and it’s now fixed.
6.58pm. Bugs in my ACT page: pretty much everything in the summary table at the bottom of the entry page, and the bar charts on the seat pages are misbehaving. Initial impression is that the Liberals are doing very well in Brindabella, but more modestly elsewhere.
6.53pm. Thanks to the magic of electronic voting, a massive influx of results from the ACT.
6.51pm. Three booths in from Pittwater, and I’m projecting Jacqui Scruby with 55.6% TCP when her raw primary vote is 58.7%, so presumably these are from good areas for her. My system isn’t quite giving it away yet though.
6.48pm. Three booths in from Epping, Liberal candidate on nearly two-thirds of the vote.
6.43pm. Two booths from Pittwater look hugely encouraging for independent Jacqui Scruby, her primary vote at over 60% in both.
6.42pm. Sixty-nine votes from Wisemans Ferry offers nothing to disabuse the assumption that a Liberal win in Hornsby is a formality.
6pm. Polls are closed for each of the above-mentioned electoral events, which you can read a lot more about through the election guides at the top of the sidebar. My results page for the by-elections offer booth-matched swings and projections and full results at booth level in map and tabular form. The ACT page is more elementary – no results at booth level and the swings simply compare the current results with the final ones from 2020.
Here we go! The ABC coverage will be doing its best to generate a bit of excitement. Best of luck to them.
Have no idea what the mood is in the ACT election but would guess the Labor-Greens govt will be returned with a reduced majority. Will be interesting to see how the independents go and how many votes/seats they pick up.
My prediction:
Only seat to change will be Ginninderra – liberals 2nd seat will fall to Labor 3rd, with liberals excluded before one or both of Kiklert or Stefaniak and Labor 3rd elected on liberal preferences.
11/8/6.
Hare Clark means a two week random number generator for the last spot in each electorate
‘sprocket_ says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 6:13 pm
Hare Clark means a two week random number generator for the last spot in each electorate’
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LOL.
The only Party that was not beset by mad hatter candidates was the Labor Party. The Greens had two bizarros and the Liberals one bizarro.
Labor ran a disciplined and focused campaign which noticeably responded to pressures as they were perceived during the campaign.
Who swears in the First Minster in Canberra (given there is no Administrator like the NT)?
I doubt there will be massive swings. But under Hare-Clarke that means little.
Pittwater should be a good chance for the Teal independent, given the circumstances leading to the former Liberal member resigning, and the issue of the new Liberal candidate not living in the electorate.
Parramatta Moderate – It would depend how good the Independents ground game was in Pittwater. Given the criminal nature of the allegations against the former MPs, there might be some backlash on that subject too.
As Labor was sitting it out, the air should have been fair clear for the Teal and there might have been a few extra volunteers too.
Why are the ABC presenters each wearing two microphones, one on the chest and one next to their mouth?
Hey the early votes were briefly up on the ACT electoral commission website and now they are gone!
Labor had dropped in Brindebella but held else where. Greens hit by the Independents for Canberra…. But it is gone now.
EDIT: UP again. So I have printscreened it
Ante Meridian @ #10 Saturday, October 19th, 2024 – 6:35 pm
It looks ridiculous whatever the reason.
I hope Scruby wins in Pittwater. The only reason Ryburn is the Liberal candidate is because of the Liberal local government elections stuff up which robbed her of her council seat.
Very early results in Pittwater but with only 2.5% of the vote down, there is a BIG swing on.
Green reporting Liberal outpolling Labor, Labor down, Greens down and Indies on 8%.
Boy, “ground game” is the cliche du jour on the ABC coverage.
Straight from the US election campaign
William has the early vote numbers up
mehar baba – What would you prefer as term instead of “Ground Game”? It covers booth work, leafleting, door knocking etc.
The ACT still doesn’t allow booth work do they?
Looks like Labor and Greens both down a little in the ACT, with “Others” doing better from that swing than Libs. I’ll guess that the swing will come back to Labor and Greens in prefs counting next week.
Libs have tried very hard, but maybe there’s too much intellectual inertia in the electorate to warm to them.
BS Fairman: why not just “campaigning”?
Anyway, l think the main thing “ground game” means in the US context is “getting out the vote.”
Which is not really a thing in our compulsory voting system.
Greens going poorly. Breaks my heart. Not.
I feel that there will be minimal change in the ACT election, unless voters revolt unexpectedly.
Ginninderra and Kurrajong and Yerrabi should stay the same.
I tip the Greens to lose two seats, to the Liberals in Brindabella and Carrick in Murrumbidgee.
This leaves Labor and the Liberals on ten seats each, and the Greens on four seats. Labor then stays in power, with support from the Greens.
So atm the votes are pointing to an assembly looking something like:
ALP: 10
LIB: 10
GRN: 3
IFC: 1
FCI: 1
The Greens could lose their seat in Yerrabi to an independent but you’d think some form of returned minority govt led by Labor is very likely.
ABC has called it for Pittwater as an Independent Gain.
Correct. It’s about volunteering ‘boots on the ground’ and ‘peeps on the phones’. Not really relevant to Australia where people have to vote by law.
The Americans don’t do “how to votes” cards however, which is a big part of the local efforts here. Even at the Referendums people were being handed cards in case they didn’t know how to spell “yes” or “no”.
Pittwater is not a surprise given that the Independent was close last time and reason for the election.
Libs doing well stick middle finger up more often!
Greens disappointing so far ,labor expect swing after 23 bloody years.
ACT quick to get results up !
Rattenbury mentioned two negative impacts on the Greens. The first that they were too close to Labor. The second that they Fed Greens were behaving extremely.
Nothing warms the heart more than a post-election Hare-Clark count.
It’s better than a brass band, sex and a fireworks display combined.
If you don’t like it, move to Queensland.
Internet connection fail from the ABC.
The Indies have cannibalized the Greens.
Yes, I thought that was telling. I’ve not seen much of the ACT Greens leader, but I appreciated his honesty on that front.
Others on 3.4 plus who are they?
@mj – I’d say the most likely way the results could differ from 10,10,3,1,1 is if tight preference flows put someone ahead of the Libs 3rd in Brindabella. Either green or ifc.
Also, early votes were before fingergate. If that shifted votes the on day vote could cost the Libs their 2nd in Ginninderra
The Madonna mics are very disconcerting.
The Independents are eating the Greens lunch.
If the Teals seriously organise for the upcoming Senate election, the Greens may lose a seat in every State.
Rattenbury is a decent person and a genuine environmentalist. An endangered species in the Greens.
It’s a pity that, now the electorate is slowly waking up to that the Greens are truly about, Shane’s happened to be the first head in a position to be kicked.
So Pittwater may come down to postal votes? Do I have that interpretation right?
The ACT Libs vote seems to be falling back (except in Brindabella) as counting continues.
Fiona Carrick Independent seems to be on her way to a quota in Murrumbidgee.
meher:
I’ve said for years now that the Greens really do need to get back to their core environmental business instead of trying to be everything to everyone.
Despite tonight’s result for the Greens I still believe this is salient advice for them.
Robson says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 7:16 pm
Nothing warms the heart more than a post-election Hare-Clark count.
It’s better than a brass band, sex and a fireworks display combined.
If you don’t like it, move to Queensland.
———-
I’ll pay that. Semper fidelis.
Pittwater is a major embarrassment for Mark Speakman, NSW Liberal leader
Libs up nearly 4% in the woke ACT, and the ALP down 3.6%.
Greens also getting smashed – down 2%
Next week another Labor bashing election coming up in a real part of Australia.
Albo coming up next after W.A. – Oncer?
The independents say they will work with either party if they have balance of power says the Australian.Could decide gov.
Albo is in Geraldton WA today about lobsters!
Robson says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 7:16 pm
That’s just weird.
No, it’s not. Not even close to embarrassing.
Good to see Opus Dei candidate romping in Epping.
Can’t have too many Tudehopes
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 7:18 pm
The Indies have cannibalized the Greens.
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unsurprising since many green voters vote on social issues not economic policies but the teals offer the same sort of social policies and a better fit on economic policies and this shouldn’t surprise anyone because 20% of green voters preference the liberals ahead of labor so there’s already a natural teal base.
On the PB results summary for the ACT, the swing to the Libs in Ginninderra (10%) seems to be a lot more than the Electoral Commission website is showing.
Emerson would most likely be for Labor and Carrick for Libs.