Live updated results from the Australian Capital Territory, Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater.
End of Saturday night
To summarise, the Liberals have had a disappointing result in the Australian Capital Territory, looking to have gained only one seat from their starting point of nine out of 25 and not even being assured of that. Labor has held steady on ten seats, despite its vote share being down by three to four points. The Greens have failed to match a best-ever result in 2020, but the cut in the party’s representation from six seats to three (or possibly four if things go their way in Brindabella) reflected only a slight drop in vote share. Of particular note was the election of two independents for the first time since the 1990s, dove-tailing with the emergence of David Pocock on the federal scene. With Labor and the Greens set to retain a combined majority, they face a marginal position in the new parliament.
Another notable independent win was chalked up last night by Jacqui Scruby in the New South Wales state by-election for Pittwater. Scruby fell 0.7% short of being the only teal independent to gain a seat at the March 2023 election, which she has accounted for on my projection with a swing of about 5%. In this she was no doubt aided by the ignominious circumstances of Liberal member Rory Amon’s departure, and also by both Labor and the Greens leaving the field vacant for her. Labor also did not contest yesterday’s by-elections for Epping and Hornsby, respectively vacated by Dominic Perrottet and Matt Kean, where Liberal candidates Monica Tudehope and James Wallace both looked to have scored majorities on the primary vote.
Live commentary
9.46pm. Another update from Brindabella has the Liberals down from 2.58 quotas to 2.57 and the Greens up from 0.54 to 0.55.
9.26pm. The Brindabella preliminary distribution, which was calculated before the weakening of the Liberals’ position, had Labor’s Mick Gentleman, who is fighting for his and Labor’s third seat, excluded with 3708 votes to the third Liberal’s 4218, or 14.3% of the total to 12.6%.
9.19pm. Kevin Bonham can further discern a scenario where Brindabella comes out at Labor three and Liberal two, rather than the other way around. Clearly this is the electorate that will be the main focus of interest in the late count.
9.08pm. I’m not sure whether it’s because of the correction of the Chisholm booth error or a substantial addition of new votes, but the Liberals’ third seat in Brindabella no longer looks secure. The Liberals have a 2.58 quotas (a 9.7% surplus over the second quota), the Greens 0.54 (9.0%) and Independents for Canberra 0.45 (7.5%), leaving preferences from the latter the decisive factor in whether the Greens can yet pull an iron out of the fire here. The preliminary preference distribution has the Independents for Canberra preference going 30.5% to Labor, 19.2% to the Greens and only 13.1% to the Liberals, with 37.2% exhausting. That suggests to me the Liberals will need the fillip they are presumably likely to get from postals to hold out against the Greens.
9.03pm. Nothing in the preference distribution to doubt the earlier assessment of Kurrajong as two Labor and one each for Liberal, Greens and independent Thomas Emerson, the latter taking the Greens’ second seat.
8.55pm. No surprises in the distribution for Brindabella, a clear result of Liberal three and Labor two. Ginninderra is as expected projected as a status quo result of Labor two, Liberal two, Greens on. Jo Clay of the Greens gets the last seat by surviving ahead of Mark Richardson of Independents for Canberra by 13.6% to 10.6% at the decisive point of the late count.
8.46pm. Preliminary preference distributions have been published on the ACT Electoral Commission site, which I’ll now be poring over.
8.45pm. Antony Green on the ABC notes all 900 votes from the Chisholm booth in Brindabella have been allocated to the Liberals, an obvious error. However, its correction won’t fundamentally change the situation there.
7.58pm. So it looks to me like the Liberals are gaining a seat from the Greens in Brindabella, and independents are gaining seats from the Greens in Kurrajong and Murrumbidgee. That would leave Labor steady on ten seats but reduce their coalition partners in the Greens from six to three, while leaving them with a combined majority of 13 out of 25. The Liberals would at least gain parity with Labor on ten seats, but be unable to gain a majority even if the two independents supported them.
7.52pm. Yerrabi looks like a status quo result in every particular, returning incumbents Michael Pettersson and Suzanne Orr of Labor, Leanne Castley and James Milligan of Liberal, and Andrew Braddock of the Greens.
7.49pm. My system is now calling Pittwater for Jacqui Scruby (and I believe that’s despite a glitch in the projection that’s favouring the Liberals by a handful of votes).
7.48pm. A second independent looks like being elected in Murrumbidgee — Fiona Carrick, at the expense of Emma Davidson of the Greens, with Labor (incumbents Chris Steel and Marisa Paterson) and Liberal (incumbents Jeremy Hanson and Ed Cocks) remaining on two each.
7.44pm. Kurrajong, which went two Labor, two Greens and one Liberal in 2020, looks like electing Thomas Emerson, Independents for Canberra candidate and son of former federal Labor minister Craig Emerson. This is disappointing for the Liberals who look like remaining stalled on one seat (Elizabeth Lee’s), with the others going two Labor (Andrew Barr and Rachel Stephen-Smith re-elected) and one Greens (Shane Rattenbury re-elected, Rebecca Vassarotti failing to retain the Greens’ second seat).
7.33pm. Ginninderra looks like a status quo result of two each for Labor and Liberal and one for the Greens. Labor incumbents Yvette Berry and Tara Cheyne will be re-elected, as will the only recontesting Liberal, Peter Cain, likely to be joined by Chiaka Barry. Jo Clay should be returned for the Greens.
7.21pm. Antony Green says the ABC computer is calling Pittwater for Jacqui Scruby. I’ve got her probability at 97.4%, and don’t call it until 99%.
7.18pm. I’ll now go through the ACT seats alphabetically. Brindabella looks like Liberal three and Labor two, with the Liberals taking a seat from the Greens. The only contesting Liberal incumbent, Mark Parton, has a quota on his own, with Deborah Morris (especially) and James Daniel looking good for the other two. Labor’s only contesting incumbent, Mick Gentleman, is coming third on his party’s ticket, behind Caitlin Tough and Tamius Werner-Gibbings, the latter of whom had to fight for preselection.
7.06pm. As my projection suggested it would, a fourth booth from Pittwater has moderated Jacqui Scruby’s lead. We also have, very early, a batch of postals, breaking 743-606 to Liberal. So Scruby will need her lead on the booth results. She’s very well placed, but my system still isn’t calling it.
7.03pm. I believe it was just the one bug, and it’s now fixed.
6.58pm. Bugs in my ACT page: pretty much everything in the summary table at the bottom of the entry page, and the bar charts on the seat pages are misbehaving. Initial impression is that the Liberals are doing very well in Brindabella, but more modestly elsewhere.
6.53pm. Thanks to the magic of electronic voting, a massive influx of results from the ACT.
6.51pm. Three booths in from Pittwater, and I’m projecting Jacqui Scruby with 55.6% TCP when her raw primary vote is 58.7%, so presumably these are from good areas for her. My system isn’t quite giving it away yet though.
6.48pm. Three booths in from Epping, Liberal candidate on nearly two-thirds of the vote.
6.43pm. Two booths from Pittwater look hugely encouraging for independent Jacqui Scruby, her primary vote at over 60% in both.
6.42pm. Sixty-nine votes from Wisemans Ferry offers nothing to disabuse the assumption that a Liberal win in Hornsby is a formality.
6pm. Polls are closed for each of the above-mentioned electoral events, which you can read a lot more about through the election guides at the top of the sidebar. My results page for the by-elections offer booth-matched swings and projections and full results at booth level in map and tabular form. The ACT page is more elementary – no results at booth level and the swings simply compare the current results with the final ones from 2020.
sprocket_ @ #45 Saturday, October 19th, 2024 – 7:34 pm
Wonder how Perrottet is feeling…
One of the likely ACT Independents is Craig Emerson’s boy.
Hard to see him going with the Liberals, and more reliable than the Greens
Remind me again when the Liberals last held office in the ACT.
FUBAR – your views on the ACT “primaries”.
Any Fed implications from what you can see?
I think these figures are shit for Labor, and shittier for the Greens.
Confessions: I doubt that postals will save Pittwater for the Liberals. There is about half the vote that one can expect to show up for a by-election already counted. If the early votes look anything like the election day votes, it is already over red rover. They would need about 64% of remaining vote to go in their favour to win (compared to 43% at the moment).
Confessionssays:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 7:24 pm
meher:
I’ve said for years now that the Greens really do need to get back to their core environmental business instead of trying to be everything to everyone.
Despite tonight’s result for the Greens I still believe this is salient advice for them.
———
The Greens aren’t trying to be everything to everyone they have decided to go, federally at least, down an ecosocialist path – appears there’s a growing market for that but that will also likely push away some centrists to teals.
In the ACT it seems the Greens and Labor vote has been eaten up to some extent by independents.
Pocock getting stuck into Greens.
BSF:
Thank you!
Epping 6% swing to the Libs on Primary
Hornsby 5% swing to the Libs on primary.
NSW voters can’t change their state gov’t with these sorts of swings.
So who are they sending a messgae to? Humphrey B Bear?
This is a shocking night for Labor can I say. Albo will be sitting on his expensive lounge suite in cocobanaland looking at these results come in.
ACT primary figures – Liberals can only really cheer themselves on the Brindabella swing, elsewhere it is noise. Brindabella and to a lesser degree Yerrabi are to some different to the rest of the ACT.
The Greens are getting eaten by the alternative to the “alternatives”. It is a little hard to claim to be the alternative once you are holding ministries. How well they preform will depend on how “sticky” the Independent preferences for each other are.
Of course what we are seeing is the early votes; in 2020 they looked like the overall result but in 2016 and earlier, that was less the case. Might have to wait for later in the night.
‘mj says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 7:44 pm
Confessionssays:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 7:24 pm
meher:
I’ve said for years now that the Greens really do need to get back to their core environmental business instead of trying to be everything to everyone.
Despite tonight’s result for the Greens I still believe this is salient advice for them.
———
The Greens aren’t trying to be everything to everyone they have decided to go, federally at least, down an ecosocialist path – appears there’s a growing market for that but that will also likely push away some centrists to teals.
….’
====================
The Greens are 13 per centers nationally. That’s it. There is nothing much more to say than that. In the most progressive electorate in Australia the Greens are eleven per centers. There is nothing much more to say than that.
Political fringe dwellers. Spoilers. Losers.
Oh please. I’ve just heard the Greens leader in the ACT try to explain away why his party failed to address Indigenous incarceration rates. No acknowledgement of the fractures of the federal party and the bullying by an Indigenous MP and how this has set back the party’s efforts in that space.
I’d suggest the Greens stick to their core party business of environmental issues. Leave things like Aboriginal incarceration to others who are better placed to advocate for this.
Federal implications for Labor in the ACT result. Clearly a net shift of votes from Labor to the Liberals.
paul A @ #58 Saturday, October 19th, 2024 – 7:51 pm
Is this enough for the Liberals to take office in ACT?
Remind me again the last time the Liberals held office in the ACT.
Confessions @ #63 Saturday, October 19th, 2024 – 7:57 pm
I mean NSW.
Green says 10 lab 10 lib 3 green and two others.
Confessions @ #63 Saturday, October 19th, 2024 – 7:57 pm
I can’t imagine any scenario where the votes on the northern beaches in sydney will somehow affect the count in the ACT.
The ACT Greens wanted to “establish a publicly owned developer and builder which will build & buy 10,000 public homes over ten years and end homelessness in the ACT”. That goal stood more chance of fulfilment in the ACT than anywhere else, given that they are in government there. Could happen, I guess.
slackboy72 @ #66 Saturday, October 19th, 2024 – 7:59 pm
They won’t. But these by-elections aren’t going to impact who governs in NSW, no matter the swing.
Paul A
You may not have noticed – Labor did not stand a candidate in the three NSW by elections.
The ‘swings to Liberal’ cited are meaningless
…is this discussion serious? Labor wasn’t even running candidates in any of the NSW by-elections, what the actual fuck is this talk about swings against them?
Primary vote swings in elections missing one of the major parties are pointless. There is a good chunk of Labor voters who would prefer a Liberal to Green.
The story of the night for the NSW Liberals is they are now one seat further away from government due to poor candidate selection, twice.
The trend is there slackboy, and I actually didn’t say anything about the voters in Sydney’s northern beaches affecting the count int the ACT. Go and get some specs, or grow up!
ALP going backwards everywhere.
Can’t wait for QLD next week. Double digit swings against your lot coming up. Can’t wait.
Paul A does witless anti Labor trolling. Not worth responding two.
Since they started adding non electronic votes, liberals have dropped from 35.7 to 34.9, greens have gone from 11.1 to 11.6. Labor are up 0.1.
My prediction is Libs will keep dropping like a rock.
Greens will retain Brindabella at 3rd liberal expense.
Liberals will lose their 2nd in Ginninderra.
Net result
10/8/4/3 inde/minors
Kirsdarke @ #70 Saturday, October 19th, 2024 – 8:04 pm
Sorry, my fault. I did the one thing I caution everyone else against and responded to a troll.
My bad!! Sorry everyone.
The votes are in..
Paul A is clueless
Assuming 10, 10, 3, 2 it looks as if the Indies in the ACT will be like the Teals in the Fed House… whistling dixie.
Will the ACT Greens leave government and sit on the x bench?
The comment about Hare-Clark counts being better than sex is the funniest thing I’ve read for a while. Sure, it lasts longer, but it’s a helluva lot more tedious (if you’re doing either right).
B. S. Fairman @ #72 Saturday, October 19th, 2024 – 8:05 pm
At least they managed to field candidates this time. lol
It does look like the votes on the day are slightly different to the early votes. Might just be what booths have come in however.
In Pittwater, the Mona Vale early voting centre was better for the Liberal candidate but they were still behind. Only Avalon early voting centre to go.
Slackboy – Yep, they actually got the paper work in. Big achievement for them. **golf clap**
Kirsdarkesays:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 8:04 pm
…is this discussion serious? Labor wasn’t even running candidates in any of the NSW by-elections, what the actual fuck is this talk about swings against them?
===================================
Who said there were ALP candidates sitting Kirsdarke.
So there is no “actual fuck” talk about swings against Labor.
Stop making things up.
Oh please. I’ve just heard the Greens leader in the ACT try to explain away why his party failed to address Indigenous incarceration rates. No acknowledgement of the fractures of the federal party and the bullying by an Indigenous MP and how this has set back the party’s efforts in that space.
I’d suggest the Greens stick to their core party business of environmental issues. Leave things like Aboriginal incarceration to others who are better placed to advocate for this.
——-
A party is not going to grow or maintain its vote campaigning singly on the environment, especially in the context where cost of living is the number 1,2 and 3 priority for voters.
sprocket_says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 8:07 pm
The votes are in..
Paul A is clueless
===============
Clueless like you sprocket, with your Latino votes.
Hey play nice kiddies.
The Teal win in Pittwater had some local factors with the circumstances of the vacancy, however the infighting stench emanating from the NSW Liberal Party points to the Federal Teals retaining all their seats.
And Bradfield and some others like Hughes now in the frame for Teals
Wouldn’t take any federal implications from tonight’s results but we could maybe say middle class liberal voters continue to return home but Scamps would feel a bit more confidence about her chances.
Will do BSF, but getting called a troll by the “U.S. thread troll”, was a bit much.
Did you see what happenned the other night.
LOL
Is Mark Parton still a radio shock jock in Canberra?
‘mj says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 8:14 pm
Oh please. I’ve just heard the Greens leader in the ACT try to explain away why his party failed to address Indigenous incarceration rates. No acknowledgement of the fractures of the federal party and the bullying by an Indigenous MP and how this has set back the party’s efforts in that space.
I’d suggest the Greens stick to their core party business of environmental issues. Leave things like Aboriginal incarceration to others who are better placed to advocate for this.
——-
A party is not going to grow or maintain its vote campaigning singly on the environment, especially in the context where cost of living is the number 1,2 and 3 priority for voters.’
=====================
The Greens did not particularly campaign on the environment in the ACT election. Vassarotti who was the (Greens) Environment Minister has lost her seat.
I would have thought indigenous incarceration rates in the ACT were not a high priority for the electorate today.
”
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 7:16 pm
Rattenbury mentioned two negative impacts on the Greens. The first that they were too close to Labor. The second that they Fed Greens were behaving extremely.
”
Atlast Greens are getting their comeuppance.
Will it be 2 Greens or 3? If there is 3 Independents, there is a possibility of a minority Liberal government, which could be a good thing.
Teach a lesson to Labor and Greens and keep Liberals bastardy in check.
Its funny hearing people who never vote Greens tell the Greens what they should stand for. The Greens are a populist left party and have every right to be that, especially given that Labor are a firmly centrist establishment outfit.
Really the ACT and the NT Govt’s – we are talking Local Governments here.
‘Zwaktyld says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 8:22 pm
I would have thought indigenous incarceration rates in the ACT were not a high priority for the electorate today.’
==================
The First Nation Party vote is around a couple of per cent – and may well have cost the Greens at least one seat.
mj @ #84 Saturday, October 19th, 2024 – 8:14 pm
This is what I mean. The Greens have abandoned the environment in favour of other issues.
LVT – I remember at one of the 90s ACT elections the Liberals were pointing to their achievement of introducing wheely bins. Local government stuff.
Independents For Canberra are looking good for a quota in Kurrajong. It’ll be interesting to see how the individual votes pan out. Read is at number 1; Emerson is at number 2 on the party HTV.
‘S. Simpson says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 8:22 pm
Its funny hearing people who never vote Greens tell the Greens what they should stand for. The Greens are a populist left party and have every right to be that, especially given that Labor are a firmly centrist establishment outfit.’
==================
The Federal Greens should learn to stop trying to destroy the Albanese Government. I doubt they will. They have gone feral. No more; no less.
The lesson for the Federal Labor Government lies in what happened in Brindabella – the equivalent of the outer suburbs. IMO, they represent Labor’s main vulnerability in May 2025.