All three of the main forecast models are now very much singing from the same song sheet, with The Economist and FiveThirtyEight both putting Kamala Harris’s win probability at 56% and Nate Silver’s differing only insofar as it goes to one decimal place. A very similar story is told by a regularly updated YouGov MRP poll presently drawing on 100,000 respondents, which rates Harris favourite in enough states to get within 13 electoral college votes of a majority and another two (Pennsylvania and Georgia) as toss-ups each with enough votes to get her over the line. Adrian Beaumont’s latest overview is available at The Conversation.
US presidential election minus five weeks
Polls and forecast models continue to find little or nothing to separate the two presidential contenders.
”
Team Katichsays:
Wednesday, October 9, 2024 at 8:05 am
Average polling error in Potus elections is not 4pts according to;
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/
Go down to the table headed
“Polling bias is pretty unpredictable from election to election”
For a good summation.
I’d say polls may well be close this election. They could be biased toward trump or Harris. You have a case to say it is more likely the bias is agsinst Trump (he will do better than the polls say). But there should be no confidence in this, pollsters have tried to improve their methods since 2020.
”
TK
I say pollsters may have improved their methodology since 2020 because
1. They got Trump numbers in 2016 and 2020.( It is just that Democratic voters were even more enthusiastic than Republican voters in 2020, hence Democrats victory across the board but that is another story)
The reason for that is that Trump drove up numbers in deep red and red districts in 2016 and 2020. Analysts argue that there is ceiling to that number. So now he trying to improve/ drive up the numbers in exburbs.
2. Pollsters overcompensated or RW pollsters flooded the market with shit or scewed their model to adjust for incumbent President doing badly in mid-term, they predicted a red wave which turned out to be a red trickle.
3. But the thing is Trump is the best Presidential candidate ever (not President, there is difference between candidate and president but that is another story). So he may drive up their numbers in deep red, red districts and exburbs. However, Trump is known candidate and atleast 20% Nicki Hailey Republicans don’t want to vote for him. There is another major factor called ‘abortion’ All these things muddied the water.
I agree that after all that hate and misinformation and the recalcitrant BS of DeSantis that she is perfectly in her right to stand up for herself and say ‘hey, it is DeSantis who is being political about a natural disaster, we are just trying to do our jobs’. But, yeah, I think it is an error of judgement in the way she did it – especially in comparison to the more diplomatic words by Biden at around the same time.
The rules are different for Trump and Harris. The Trump campaign is pitching to people who are receptive to their sort of rumble politics. Harris isnt. She is pitching to people that the rumble and chaos can end by electing her. So, hmmm, well, yes, she should have stayed above it. I dont think it helps her.
Nobody runs a perfect campaign. This imho, is her first misstep.
Anyone who is observing what Trump and Vance are saying about Harris/Walz, as well as the extreme weather events, know there is no limit to their vileness and right out lies.
None.
Add to that, the piece of crap Musk who campaigned on stage with the orange yeti. Who has now been laughing and giggling with another piece of crap, Tucker Carlson in a sit down discussion, about no one wanting to assassinate Harris or Walz.
They are traitors and they are not even disguising it at this point,
And now we come to hear that Trump gave Putin covid tests during the height of the pandemic. Which tests were hard to come by for American people.
I guess Trump didn’t think 1 million deaths was too much to bear,
It is beyond disgusting.
There is a lot wrong with the USA way of doing things. But the path Trump and co are taking it, is going to be a shit show for the rest of the west.
So it is a good thing that they won’t be winning. But they will do enough to wreck the joint somewhat.
Anyhoo, I’ve been bleeping about this since 2016. I really didn’t think it would still be a thing. Sigh……..
Team Katich @ #602 Wednesday, October 9th, 2024 – 7:50 am
Disagree. Hillary ran the “stay above it” campaign, for all the good it did her. One of the best things about Harris is that she’s not doing that. You can be the “I’m the sane, non-chaotic candidate” while still beating up on your opponent when they deserve it. And Trump and DeSantis well and truly deserve it.
Dems need to take a few steps back from this generally, and stop with their delusional thinking that the high road is the best path to victory. Can’t clear out the scum without getting into the gutters.
Ven @ #601 Wednesday, October 9th, 2024 – 7:42 am
Citation needed.
If Trump is so great at campaigning why did he come within an inch of losing to Hillary, bailed out purely by the Electoral College and its GOP-friendly bias? How’d he manage to lose soundly to elderly, gaffe-prone Biden, despite all the advantages of incumbency, the Electoral College, stacked courts, an army of lawyers, and a violent mob?
He’s good at convincing a lot of people that he’s better than he is, for some reason. But that’s about it.
Donald Trump is an adept demagogue. That does not equate to a great campaigner. A great campaigner convinces voters to vote for them on the merits of their arguments and policies. A demagogue encourages slavish devotion by bringing out the worst in people. BIG difference.
Tim Miller on the NYT Sienna poll and the Nates:
https://youtu.be/fGUrQ8ezDIg?si=ybYRQfpq9KwcOyDj
Polls are almost always going to be off, we won’t know by how much and in which direction until the election. Polls can be off just because of random chance, or because of systemic issues. In 2020 non college educated whites, one of Trump’s biggest constituencies, were unrepresented in polls for various reasons. The question is if pollsters have now corrected this sampling error.
a r
“High road” wrt deSantis. No issue with Harris taking on Trump and the way Trump has politicised the disaster and sown reluctance to use fed help by outright lying. They should indeed go to town on and expose that.
The Commonwealth Foundation — a conservative advocacy group — has commissioned quarterly surveys from polling firm The Bullfinch Group. The poll for the third quarter of 2024, released today, surveyed 800 registered voters.
Demographics were representative of Pennsylvania, although the sample was somewhat older, with 64% of those surveyed being age 45 or older. The poll’s margin of error was 3.46 percentage points, according to Bullfinch.
The poll’s topline shows Harris leading former president Donald Trump by four percentage points, 50% to 46%, with 4% of voters saying they would vote for someone else.
https://www.pennlive.com/elections/2024/10/harris-leads-trump-in-latest-pa-poll-as-voters-show-greater-satisfaction-with-candidates.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/us/politics/mitt-romney-trump-harris.html?smid=url-share
Romney won’t endorse Harris, saying he wants to keep his voice in the party.
Yet another emasculated Republican man. In his “it’s all razed to the ground” vision I would think the absolute last choice to lead the people to the new phoenix Republican world would be Mitt. Gotta feel a bit sorry for someone that delusional.
Four weeks to go, and still nothing much changes. Harris holds a decent lead on the head-to-head polling, and a narrow margin in the Electoral College.
Harris/ Dem safe states: 226 Electoral Votes v Trump GOP safe states: 188 Electoral Votes, while Harris leads in the overall voting average by about 48.5 to 46.9, according to 538.
Swing states with EVs + current polling leader (polling averages from Electoral-Vote.com):
Arizona (11 EVs; Trump +1)
Florida (30 EVs; Trump +4)
Georgia (16 EVs; Trump +2)
Michigan (15 EVs; Harris +3)
Nevada (6 EVs; Harris +3)
North Carolina (16 EVs; Trump +1)
Pennsylvania (19 EVs; Harris +2)
Wisconsin (10 EVs; Harris +2)
If all the states go with the current poll leader, we’ll get an Electoral College score of 276-262 – the same as it’s been for about a month. But we should probably take any polling numbers from North Carolina and possibly Georgia with a big grain of salt, given the chaos post-Helene, and we might yet be saying the same about Florida if Hurricane Milton does similar damage there. There’s really no way of accurately reading who will be able to vote (or even be polled) over the next month, and we won’t really know what electoral effect the storm has had until after election day.
On college educated voters I found the following stat’s pretty interesting. The proportion of college educated voters rose 4% between Dubya and Trump, 9% between Trump and Biden and 20% since then. College voters make up over 40% of voters and are high turnout and overwhelmingly Democrat. I think I have that right although don’t quote me on the exact numbers because I saw them a couple of days ago.
Trump secretly sent covid tests to Putin during 2020 shortage, new Bob Woodward book says
Putin, petrified of the virus, accepted the supplies but took pains to prevent political fallout — not for him, but for his American counterpart. He cautioned Trump not to reveal that he had dispatched the scarce medical equipment to Moscow, according to a new book by Washington Post associate editor Bob Woodward.
Putin, according to the book, told Trump, “I don’t want you to tell anybody because people will get mad at you, not me.”
Four years later, the personal relationship between the two men appears to have persisted, Woodward reports, as Trump campaigns to return to the White House and Putin orchestrates his bloody assault on Ukraine.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/08/bob-woodward-new-book-war-trump-putin-biden/
🙂
Unearthed audio reveals GOP Senate candidate’s skin-crawling take on women
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/8/2275565/-Unearthed-audio-reveals-GOP-Senate-candidate-s-skin-crawling-take-on-women?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_4&pm_medium=web
“Tim Sheehy, the Republican Party’s Senate nominee in Montana, was caught on a recently surfaced audio recording arguing that women have been “indoctrinated” to have pro-abortion-rights views. Sheehy’s comments echo rhetoric from other Republican candidates minimizing the importance of the abortion issue ahead of this fall’s election.
“Young people—listen up, they’ve been indoctrinated for too long. We don’t even try to talk to them anymore,” Sheehy said. He went on to complain that after speaking to a group of young people, “[Y]oung women between the age of 19 and 30, abortion is their No. 1 concern. That’s all they want to talk about. They are single-issue voters.”
In the recording, which was made in 2023
Excellent article on what the Stein/Green Party is pouting about and trying to do in Wisconsin again to “teach Dems a lesson.” https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/10/03/wisconsin-green-party-00180283
From the article, “Jill Stein has no path to win the presidency, but just like she did in 2016, she can help Trump win and we can’t afford to repeat history,” DNC spokesperson Matt Corridoni said. “We plan to hold all candidates accountable and make sure they’re playing by the rules.” He also recently called her a “useful idiot for Russia,” a reference to a 2015 gala that Stein attended in Russia and her former appearances on Russia Today, a state-run television network.
And, “In Wisconsin, Green Party leaders are furious over Democratic efforts to sink Stein. Pete Karas, the elections committee chair for the Wisconsin Greens, says that in the wake of the lawsuit, they now plan to run more local campaigns in 2026, focusing on competitive districts. Why run in swing districts when they likely have a better chance of getting more votes in deep blue ones — and risk electing Republican candidates who might be even more hostile to their ideas? Payback.”
“We need to teach Democrats a lesson,” Karas said. “They’re trying to mess with us and mess with democracy, and they have a couple of choices. They can continue to do that and suffer the consequences, or they can pass ranked choice voting so that we actually do have fair elections.”
As if the narcissistic Stein really has any hope of winning in ranked choice voting either.
Tim Walz is simply the best:
https://youtu.be/-o0bZ3QigVI?si=vOCO8m951qi6Gg87
He doesn’t need to be a cynical conniving political chameleon like JD Vance. He is just himself.
This ABC article points out a stark reality. If Trump is elected, his tariff policies and isolationism will be unambiguously bad for Australia in both economic and security impacts.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-09/trumps-economic-program-us-australia-tariff-hikes-deportations/104444884
So why are some “Australians” on this blog actually arguing for Trump as opposed to observing polls? Trump would be a disaster for Australia.
The only motive I can think of is that the pro-Trump posters here are LNP stooges who actually want Trump elected so he can damage the Australian economy and increase the chances of an LNP victory next May.
”
Socratessays:
Wednesday, October 9, 2024 at 7:07 pm
This ABC article points out a stark reality. If Trump is elected, his tariff policies and isolationism will be unambiguously bad for Australia in both economic and security impacts.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-09/trumps-economic-program-us-australia-tariff-hikes-deportations/104444884
So why are some “Australians” on this blog actually arguing for Trump as opposed to observing polls? Trump would be a disaster for Australia.
The only motive I can think of is that the pro-Trump posters here are LNP stooges who actually want Trump elected so he can damage the Australian economy and increase the chances of an LNP victory next May.
”
And implement Project 2025 on Australians.
Remember, just before (was it afterwards?), the Biden-Trump debate Dutton went to USA, the details of which were kept hush. After RNC, Kroger went on Sky news and virtually kissed Trump ample backside.
I voted today. For anyone interested, this is the ballot in the state of Washington.
Page 1
Page 2
How I voted isn’t secret. The logic is straightforward. Any candidate for election standing for any office as a Republican supports the Republican Party, who in turn support the Republican candidate for President. That reflects extremely poorly on the party that supports him, and poorly on any candidate who supports that party. It’s quite simple. Policies don’t come into it. (Even the Cheney’s get that.)
Harris was on Stephen Colbert’s show.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eZw3GzmPGc&ab_channel=TheLateShowwithStephenColbert
Confessions @ #622 Wednesday, October 9th, 2024 – 6:51 pm
Hmm. (But thanks!) Listening to her worried me. Asked “How are you different?”, her answer was a rambling list of policies. But she missed the opening she was given to contrast her policies with T****’s policies. “We’re not going back.” was screaming out to be said. I guess Colbert’s show was a safe space and she took it easy. (And if you’re a cynic what she said won’t convince you.)
Thanks for sharing the photo of your ballot, Late Riser. 🙂
Late Riser,
If you aren’t impressed by the Colbert interview then maybe you should check out Howard Stern’s interview of her instead. It was actually quite good from all accounts.
Colbert’s show would be Democrat City anyways.
But yes, Harris tends to use 5 words where 3 would do. In both writing and speech. It’s mildly annoying. Just tear Trump a new one and then hold for applause.
Late Riser says Wednesday, October 9, 2024 at 7:40 pm
Some interesting initiatives. I’m guessing the supporters of some of them are not giving priority to fighting climate change.
C@tmomma
“Oh, and funny how you haven’t done a run-down comparing the Democratic Party’s outperformance of the polls in 2022 that turned a ‘Red Tsunami’ into a Red Trickle.”
Quite aside from the time it DID take me to post what I did, why would I do what you suggest? This is a presidential election, with Trump on the ballot. . . again. . . not a mid-term election.
“I think you’ve spent too long in the fever swamps of MAGA while you’ve been in North Carolina, BT.”
You’ve obviously been out in the heat because I’ve never been anywhere near North Carolina in my life. It’s 15 years since my one and only visit to the USA.
All in all, your post was thoroughly uncalled for, nasty and ungrateful – catty, I suppose. Funny how nasty posts get ignored or agreed with; and psephological ones actually adding something to the debate get disgusting replies like yours – says a lot about character tbh.
And yes, I am offended after all my effort. . .
sprocket
“Or NYTimes election guru Nate Cohn.. in short, Trump is racking up the votes in Florida and to a lesser extent New York and California.
This lessens the EC advantage of previous cycles being megaphoned by FUBAR and BT, and the overall national lead by Harris shouldn’t be discounted as much.”
This is a good point, and why one shouldn’t make a lazy assumption that even if there is a polling miss it will be the same as the last one.
That’s really why I went to the trouble of doing all those different state calculations not just the national poll miss. You have to remember USA is always 50 different elections, not just 1 big one.
For instance, even on the hypothesis I posted about it’s perfectly conceivable that Harris could win North Carolina back for the blues and still lose the overall election. Or that there’s a swing to Trump in all the sunshine states and a swing against him in all the rust belt states.
This is only scratching the surface of such analysis tbh.
TK
“Did Harris just take aim at a governor dealing with the aftermath of one hurricane and the preparations for another?
She is right and DeSantis deserves it…. but it does seem like a campaign error to me.”
If you’re referencing what she said on the blustery runway that I saw, I thought Harris was measured enough considering how the misinformation could be affecting her poll numbers. Her and Biden really needed to push back against that narrative I would say.
a r
“Hillary ran the “stay above it” campaign, for all the good it did her.”
I disagree with that characterisation of her campaigning.
Separately, I would also say that even if it were true that was not what cost her the election. The reasons were 3-fold:
1. She was polarising before the GE campaign, a kind of hate figure for GOP voters.
2. She made a terrible unforced error that provoked voting against her to new heights, by talking about the ‘deplorables’.
3. She got dumped on a week out from the election by Andrew Comey, that wasn’t right IMO regardless of his motives.
Clinton couldn’t help 1 and 3. If only 2 or 3 had been true, she would still have won, but both were fatal.
Thus USA missed out on a true genius becoming President and instead the age of Trump was ushered in.
Trump fans are deplorables. It’s just unwise to say so if you’re running for office in the USA.
Steve777
“Trump fans are deplorables.”
Some of every candidate’s fans are ‘deplorables’.
“It’s just unwise to say so if you’re running for office in the USA.”
Well quite.
“When they go low, you go high”. Yes, Michelle said it first. But Hillary said it too.
Say what you will about her campaigning, I distinctly remember watching her debate Trump and waiting for the evisceration that never came. Despite a great many easy openings. Kamala did it right. Even 2020 Biden had his moments.
Unforced error maybe. But also correct. The deplorables are real. And really, irredeemably deplorable.
Truth in politics has value too.
In defence of Michelle Obama and that famous line, she was the First Lady, not a Democratic strategist. And the context of the line was in regards to brushing off the racist vitriol she and her family experienced and not to stoop to that level.
Think someone might be mixing me up with my near-namesake – I’m the one that’s recently been to North Carolina (although the rural shop devoted entirely to Trump merchandise was in Tennessee).
BT @ #636 Wednesday, October 9th, 2024 – 11:09 pm
With you, BTSays and BadThinker (whose moniker can be abbreviated to BT) all here, those can be very confusing initials!
Helene took out an N.C. town the entire tech world relies on
https://www.axios.com/local/charlotte/2024/10/01/hurricane-helene-tech-chip-shortage-spruce-pine-quartz-supply
”
Wat Tylersays:
Wednesday, October 9, 2024 at 11:43 pm
BT @ #636 Wednesday, October 9th, 2024 – 11:09 pm
Think someone might be mixing me up with my near-namesake – I’m the one that’s recently been to North Carolina (although the rural shop devoted entirely to Trump merchandise was in Tennessee).
With you, BTSays and BadThinker (whose moniker can be abbreviated to BT) all here, those can be very confusing initials!
”
I can differentiate between BT(Progressive), BTsays(UK Conservative) and Badthinker (Australian LNP diehard supporter). Maybe it shows I am spending lot of on PB. 🙂
”
Jaegersays:
Wednesday, October 9, 2024 at 11:51 pm
Helene took out an N.C. town the entire tech world relies on
Why it matters: Spruce Pine is one of the only places in the world to mine high-purity quartz. The mineral is an essential ingredient of chips in countless products, including medical devices, solar panels, cellphones and the chips powering the latest tech craze: artificial intelligence.
https://www.axios.com/local/charlotte/2024/10/01/hurricane-helene-tech-chip-shortage-spruce-pine-quartz-supply
”
Well, whenever one takes on Mother nature, Mother nature wins 100% of time.
Poll Tracker
@PollTracker2024
New national Reuters/Ipsos poll
Harris 46%
Trump 43%
(Registered voters)
Adam Carlson
@admcrlsn
A new New York Times/Siena national poll (9/29 – 10/6, n=3385 LV) finds Harris in her strongest position all cycle:
Harris: 49% (+4 rounded)
Trump: 46%
Their previous national polls:
• 9/11-16: Tied at 47%
• 9/3-6: Trump +1 (48-47)
• 7/22-24: Trump +1 (48-47)
a r
“Unforced error maybe. But also correct. The deplorables are real. And really, irredeemably deplorable.
Truth in politics has value too.”
OK. So she can make a snobby comment but at least be correct, although it means she doesn’t get elected and enact policies to influence / improve the situation for the country.
Makes a lot of sense, sure. . .
“I can differentiate between BT(Progressive), BTsays(UK Conservative) and Badthinker (Australian LNP diehard supporter). Maybe it shows I am spending lot of on PB. ”
I may often betray conservative values but I’m not a ‘Conservative’ (capital ‘C’), and my support for different parties in multiple countries bounces around a lot as you may have picked up. Hence I strongly supported Clinton in 2016.
My perspective on international candidates is very much through the lens of their foreign policy, whereas with domestic candidates much more is considered for obvious – some would say selfish -reasons and love of one’s own country.
Tony Blair was significantly better than John Major and perhaps some of his other Conservative opponents. Gordon Brown and Labour leaders onwards I have definitely not appreciated.
Some of the Scottish Labour leading lights from 2000 up to the 2015 GE wipeout they experienced in Scotland, were true heavyweights with good gravitas. I really liked Alisdair Darling; and Henry McCleish, Jim Murphy, Douglas Alexander and various others were good guys I thought. Scotland seemed to produce some of Labour’s best people.
Welsh Labour on the other hand, seems permanently stuck in 1980s militant left-wing stuff which doesn’t progress either the Labour cause or the state of Wales which has had continuous Labour government since devolution (sometimes in coalition).
1 or 2 other figures from ‘New Labour’ days such as Jack Straw, Alan Milburn and Andy Burnham (current mayor of Manchester) I thought were alright. Though any part they had in setting up those dreadful PFI contracts for the NHS that have saddled the country/NHS with so much long-term debt, should really take them off my ‘good’ list.
Of the current Labour lot, Wes Streeting and Dan Jarvis seem fairly sensible for a start. Can’t make up my mind about Rachel Reeves, let’s see her 1st budget later this month. Pretty much in despair about many of the other leading figures in the party. Starmer is basically Corbyn with a brain and without the terrorist-supporting baggage, who pretended to be centrist during the election campaign by not admitting to any specific policies – which worked to get them elected, as the country was so sick of the Conservatives.
FWIW I have time for the current Lib Dem leader Ed Davey, and a few of his colleagues/ex-leaders over the years – Danny Alexander, Tim Farron, even Nick Clegg wasn’t so bad when in coalition anyway, shame he obfuscates on behalf of Meta/Facebook at every opportunity now.
I actually think at least one of the Eng & Wales current Green party leaders (idk enough about the other one) is a decent and fairly sensible person – I admit the first Green leader in this country I have thought that about.
I quite like the current German Greens though, much more rational than the quasi-militant hard left outfits that dominate so much elsewhere in the West.
There, since you mentioned my leanings, I’ve let you have a peep inside me for once. 😉
Trump appears to be floundering. Not a surprise. Having insulted, deceived and threatened around 2/3 of the US electorate he can hardly expect them to return the favour by voting for him. Harris is doing what it takes. So far so good.
ARIZONA Senate
SoCal Strategies October 5-7
Gallego (Dem) 51-39% Lake (GOP) = Gallego +13
No previous polls from SoCal to compare to, but one heck of a lead and further points to Arizona not being culpable if Dems do lose their senate ‘majority’.
Research Co. also show (Oct 5-7) Dem senate candidates narrowly leading by 3-5% in all of Wis, Penn and Mich.
(all of the above Dems are playing defence)
“Trump appears to be floundering.”
Guess it depends what you read/watch.
I hadn’t noticed that general narrative being prevalent at all.
One poll – an outlier, of course, but still a real poll – today shows him up nationally by 1.2% compared to leads of up to 5% for Harris for this pollster (Activote) previously over the last 2 months – last poll she led 1.8%.
This is a fantastic story (and it shows how sleazy the Republicans are and how they co-opt charities as fronts):
“You’re not welcome back.”
That’s the message the manager of Philadelphia cheesesteak joint Max’s Steaks had for Pennsylvania Republican U.S. Senate candidate Dave McCormick, after his campaign held an event outside the restaurant Friday that the eatery was told would be about autism awareness.
Mike Sfida—who agreed to hold the event because his niece and nephew have autism—was alarmed when he saw Donald Trump signs being hung outside the beloved North Philly spot on Friday, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported. McCormick arrived, gave a campaign stump address, and then handed out free sandwiches.
“We didn’t sign up for that at all. Zero,” he told the newspaper after the event, which he allowed the McCormick team to finish before making clear they should stay away from his restaurant thereafter. “I could throw them all out of here, but I’m going to be nice. Do your thing. When you’re done, leave. You’re not welcome back.”
Sfida told the Inquirer it was a local Republican operative, Sheila Armstrong, who contacted him to schedule the event, which she did on behalf of her nonprofit organization, Cooking4Autism, without mentioning McCormick’s campaign.
Armstrong is a member of the anti-LGBT group Moms for Liberty, which campaigns against school curricula that discusses LGBT rights or race and which the civil rights group Southern Poverty Law Center has classified as a far-right extremist group.
She was a paid staffer for the failed campaign of Republican Mehmet Oz — who lost to U.S. Sen. John Fetterman (D., Pa.) in 2022— but appears to have no official affiliation role on McCormick’s team, the Inquirer reported. She told the newspaper she offered to be a liaison for the GOP candidate in Philadelphia.
Pressed by the newspaper about whether the campaign stop was an autism awareness event, Armstrong claimed “it’s always autism awareness because I’m an education advocate” and said she spoke to those gathered about autism at one point.
“We certainly apologize for any confusion,” said a spokesperson for McCormick.
But the disaster didn’t end there.
After showing up at a cheesesteak restaurant to campaign under the auspice of an autism awareness event, McCormick went across the street to East Bethel Baptist Church, which happened to be holding an outdoor fundraiser for its food ministry.
The Rev. Thomas Edwards Jr., who leads the church, told his campaign to leave because he didn’t want the GOP candidate to use photos of his congregation for campaigning purposes.
“You can Photoshop,” he told the Inquirer. “You can make things seem like they aren’t. Maybe they’re going to post we’re eating dogs or eating cats, like in Ohio. Forgive me if I’m wrong. I don’t trust these people.”
https://www.thedailybeast.com/philly-restaurant-bans-gop-candidate-after-he-claimed-campaign-stop-was-autism-event
Starmer is basically Corbyn with a brain and without the terrorist-supporting baggage, who pretended to be centrist during the election campaign by not admitting to any specific policies – which worked to get them elected, as the country was so sick of the Conservatives.
I think you’re attempting to mislead there. Keir Starmer used to be a lot more like Jeremy Corbyn but if you actually take a look at the things he has done since being elected, and especially when we see Rachel Reeves Budget, then it will become obvious that he is more in the Economically Conservative (a position the actual Conservatives have abandoned)/Socially Progressive mould.
Qinnipiac giving a dose of salts for the blue wall strategy. PA good but WI and Michigan not so good.
There have been some worrying signs in Michigan. And WI has been tightening and now the first good poll showing Harris behind. They put a lot of eggs in this basket.