US presidential election minus five weeks

Polls and forecast models continue to find little or nothing to separate the two presidential contenders.

All three of the main forecast models are now very much singing from the same song sheet, with The Economist and FiveThirtyEight both putting Kamala Harris’s win probability at 56% and Nate Silver’s differing only insofar as it goes to one decimal place. A very similar story is told by a regularly updated YouGov MRP poll presently drawing on 100,000 respondents, which rates Harris favourite in enough states to get within 13 electoral college votes of a majority and another two (Pennsylvania and Georgia) as toss-ups each with enough votes to get her over the line. Adrian Beaumont’s latest overview is available at The Conversation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

693 comments on “US presidential election minus five weeks”

Comments Page 1 of 14
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  1. Adam Carlson@admcrlsn
    ·
    9h
    New Cook Political poll (bipartisan, conducted jointly by BSG & GS Strategy Group, 9/19-25, LVs) finds Harris narrowly ahead in 6 of 7 swing states

    Full field:
    AZ: Harris +3
    GA: Trump +1
    MI: Harris +3
    NV: Harris +1
    NC: Harris +3
    PA: Harris +2
    WI: Harris +2

  2. Harris is attempting to woo Mormons. If Romney wasn’t too scared of going against the GOP his endorsement might be a powerful influence.

    Four years later, John said he feels much better about what he’s doing now: joining former Mesa Vice Mayor Claudia Walters in not only endorsing Democrat Kamala Harris for president, but forming an advisory committee that pledges to help convince other members of the church in his state to back the Democratic ticket in November.

    “We believe in our form of government, a government of the people, the Constitution, and we believe in ways that it was divinely inspired,” John said, referring to the LDS church’s beliefs regarding the U.S. founding documents. “I just don’t think we can support someone who has shown such open hostility toward it.”

    The effort may surprise some observers, as Mormons have traditionally been one of the most reliably Republican constituencies in the U.S. But the Harris campaign is hoping to capitalize on Trump’s long-standing struggles with the group, and while winning the majority of Mormon voters is unlikely, Democrats say Trump’s already comparatively weak pull with the group may have fractured further after Jan. 6 and ongoing controversy surrounding Trump’s rhetoric regarding immigrants — issues seen as important to many members of the church.

    https://religionnews.com/2024/10/02/harris-makes-play-for-mormon-voters-in-effort-that-could-decide-arizona/

  3. Special counsel Jack Smith laid out new evidence to support his assertion that Donald Trump’s efforts to subvert the results of the 2020 election were taken as a private candidate, rather than his official capacity as the president, in a much-anticipated 165-page filing unsealed Wednesday that detailed Trump’s private interactions with his vice president and others.

    The filing described what the then-president told key figures in his orbit, including vice president Mike Pence, attorney Rudy Giuliani and senior White House and Republican Party officials, though it shielded some of their names, and how some in his orbit told him his claims of having won the election were false. It also detailed what Trump was doing on Jan. 6, as his supporters stormed the Capitol.

    The filing is a key part of the special counsel’s attempt to show that Trump can still face trial for attempting to overturn Joe Biden’s electoral victory after the Supreme Court ruled he was immune from prosecution for official acts. It asserted that Trump’s efforts to enlist Pence to intervene in Congress’s certification of the results under a plan by private attorney Giuliani were integral to his campaign for reelection.

    Roughly half of the 165-page legal brief presented a new factual summary of the government’s case.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/10/02/jack-smith-filing-trump-immunity-jan-6/

  4. It’s still far too close for my liking. How can anybody with an IQ of close to 100 or more want to vote for that dangerous clown? Don’t they have any concern for what sort of world (if any) their children will grow up in?

  5. Democrats are going after every vote they can possible get. Walz has spent time in Texas with Beto and also Florida, now we’re hearing about the campaign’s pitch for Mormons.

    Further indication, if any were needed, that this is going down to the wire.

  6. Nebraska Senate Polling:

    Osborn (I): 47%
    Fischer (R): 42%

    Bullfinch / Oct 1, 2024 / n=400

    Texas Senate Polling:

    Cruz (R): 50%
    Allred (D): 47%

    RMG Research / Sept 27, 2024 / n=779

  7. Looking for some light reading today?

    Jack Smith’s 165 page brief on the revised Trump Jan 6 case…

    https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.258148/gov.uscourts.dcd.258148.252.0_1.pdf

    How Jack Smith opens..

    The defendant asserts that he is immune from prosecution for his criminal scheme to
    overturn the 2020 presidential election because, he claims, it entailed official conduct. Not so.

    Although the defendant was the incumbent President during the charged conspiracies, his scheme
    was fundamentally a private one. Working with a team of private co-conspirators, the defendant
    acted as a candidate when he pursued multiple criminal means to disrupt, through fraud and deceit,
    the government function by which votes are collected and counted—a function in which the
    defendant, as President, had no official role

  8. Fess. I think that Walz going to Texas and Florida is a little like Ukraine’s push into Russia: not a serious threat, but an attempt to draw their opponent’s attention away from the frontine.

    Probably a good tactic, although Walz doesn’t cut through enough for my taste.

  9. Anyone know much about the Cook Report pollsters BSG and GS? A joint effort? GS strategy is poorly rated. I don’t know anything about BSG. 3000 sample across 7 states seems small per state.

    Cook Report is very highly regarded. You would expect they’d stump up for a good reliable poll rather than clickbait.

  10. Trump’s VP debate meltdown was a sight to behold

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/2/2274261/-Trump-s-VP-debate-meltdown-was-a-sight-to-behold?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_2&pm_medium=web

    Trump during VP debate: “EVERYONE KNOWS I WOULD NOT SUPPORT A FEDERAL ABORTION BAN, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, AND WOULD, IN FACT, VETO IT, BECAUSE IT IS UP TO THE STATES TO DECIDE BASED ON THE WILL OF THEIR VOTERS (THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE!). LIKE RONALD REAGAN BEFORE ME, I FULLY SUPPORT THE THREE EXCEPTIONS FOR RAPE, INCEST, AND THE LIFE OF THE MOTHER. I DO NOT SUPPORT THE DEMOCRATS RADICAL POSITION OF LATE TERM ABORTION LIKE, AS AN EXAMPLE, IN THE 7TH, 8TH, OR 9TH MONTH OR, IN CASE THERE IS ANY QUESTION, THE POSSIBILITY OF EXECUTION OF THE BABY AFTER BIRTH. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!”

    “Trump’s all-caps screed was also a lie. While in office in 2018, he expressed strong support for a national ban that would’ve banned abortion at 20 weeks, but it did not pass a Senate vote. He vowed his support for a 15-week abortion ban in a March radio interview. And in 2023, Trump said he’s going to be “leading the charge” on anti-choice policy that “the whole country can agree with” in a Newsmax interview. ”

    “He went after CBS News and its debate moderators when they correctly asserted Trump filed 62 lawsuits contesting the 2020 election results, and judges and election officials found there was no widespread voter fraud.

    “I thought Norah [O’Donnell] was fired from CBS for Low Ratings. Why is she still on?” he posted in between calling Walz “Tampon Tim” twice”


  11. meher babasays:
    Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 6:49 am
    It’s still far too close for my liking. How can anybody with an IQ of close to 100 or more want to vote for that dangerous clown? Don’t they have any concern for what sort of world (if any) their children will grow up in?

    No they don’t. They want to destroy the joint as Curtis Yarvin ennunciated.

    BTW meherbaba
    Who won Presidential and VP debate IYO?


  12. sprocket_says:
    Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 7:05 am
    Nebraska Senate Polling:

    Osborn (I): 47%
    Fischer (R): 42%

    Bullfinch / Oct 1, 2024 / n=400

    Texas Senate Polling:

    Cruz (R): 50%
    Allred (D): 47%

    RMG Research / Sept 27, 2024 / n=779

    I can understand holding one’s nose and voting for Rick Scott (because as per Floridian Rick Wilson (a Republican) Florida is the most corrupt state in US). But I can never understand people holding their nose and voting for Ted Cruz because he is intensely disliked by even Republicans and Mitch McConnell refused to fund him for Cruz campaign.

  13. Cook Report poll
    Though it has abated recently, inflation remains top of mind for Americans, with 80% of likely voters calling it a “major factor” in their vote for president, according to a YouGov poll for CBS News. However, Cook’s poll suggests that voters no longer give Republicans the advantage on the issue. As political analysts Amy Walter and Jessica Taylor write about their poll:

    “As he did in August, Trump holds a five-point lead on the question on who voters trust to “deal with the economy” (50-45%). But, on the specific issue of “getting inflation under control,” Trump’s six-point lead from August has evaporated. In August, Trump led Harris on inflation and cost of living 48% to 42%. Today, voters are evenly divided (47%) on who they trust more to handle an issue that 60% of swing state voters say is the aspect of the economy that “concerns them the most.”

    “Economy
    In Cook’s May poll, 38% of swing state voters thought the economy was getting better or staying the same, while 62% said it was getting worse—a difference of 24 points. But in the latest poll, that difference has shrunken to just 8 points, suggesting that voters are starting to feel better about the economy”


  14. Victoriasays:
    Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 9:10 am
    The way things are going for Trump, he is going to stroke out.
    Will he even make it to the election.

    Victoria
    “Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    this speech Trump is delivering right now in Milwaukee is the lowest energy speech I have ever heard from him. Here’s a more than 2 minute clip where he gets 0 response from the crowd other than a stray cough here and there” (watch the video)

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1841248720060301443?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1841248720060301443%7Ctwgr%5Ea482905807a0da7a7ffcbbdfb335238af21dc0d6%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2024%2F10%2F2%2F2274277%2F-New-poll-shows-Harris-ahead-in-most-swing-states-and-more-good-news

  15. Now this snippet from Jack Smith’s filing will really get Trump wound up…

    Jack Smith: “The evidence demonstrates that the defendant knew his fraud claims were false…”

    there are also multiple instances – before J6 even – where Trump admitted there was at least a chance that he lost

  16. The other problem I have with these polls covering swing states; I reckon that the states are very different in how they poll. We have seen some very reputable pollsters do well in some states and miss wildly in others. Which makes me think that the way people respond to the calls/txts and the way pollsters adjust is not consistent enough between, say, the sunbelt and the rustbelt, to suggest a 3000 sample polls of both together gives really useful data for a campaign or hacks like us.

    Now, a 3000 sample poll in just the rust belt or just the sunbelt would have been interesting.

    Add to that the unknown nature of the pollster here and you pretty much just get another poll ground into the slurry. I feel like we are reading coffee grounds like my aunty used to do for me when I was a kid. And if my grandfather had slipped a dash of the good stuff into my cup, I would take what she said very seriously.

  17. Could Jack Smith latest filing be the October Surprise?
    Trump not happy..

    I’ll see his Smith and raise him a Comey.
    The only reason the trail is still going is because he and SCOTUS put the brakes on it.

  18. meher baba says:
    Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 6:49 am

    It’s not that they want to destroy the joint. They want their joint back. The Democrats and the old school Republicans deserted middle America, destroyed their industries and their jobs, despises their culture and rams woke crap down their throat.

    I know a number of Trump supporters in the US. College educated with good jobs. They recognise Trump as deeply flawed but he was at least offering an alternative to the failed old school Republicans. Whether or not Trump wins or loses, JD Vance is in the Van Guard of the new right that is developing policies that move away from free markets and exporting jobs and denigrating mothers and families.

  19. FUBAR @ #23 Thursday, October 3rd, 2024 – 8:55 am

    meher baba says:
    Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 6:49 am

    It’s not that they want to destroy the joint. They want their joint back. The Democrats and the old school Republicans deserted middle America, destroyed their industries and their jobs, despises their culture and rams woke crap down their throat.

    I know a number of Trump supporters in the US. College educated with good jobs. They recognise Trump as deeply flawed but he was at least offering an alternative to the failed old school Republicans. Whether or not Trump wins or loses, JD Vance is in the Van Guard of the new right that is developing policies that move away from free markets and exporting jobs and denigrating mothers and families.

    It really is nice when you dont troll. I like most of this post regardless of how much of it I agree or disagree with.

  20. “It’s not that they want to destroy the joint. They want their joint back. The Democrats and the old school Republicans deserted middle America, destroyed their industries and their jobs,”

    ^^^ this I can largely agree on, perhaps a consequence of Reagan smashing unions, and the Citizens United decision essentially legalising bribery.

    “despises their culture and rams woke crap down their throat.”

    ^^^ this to me is an inevitable outcome of the above – both parties having many of the same donors while the Dems moving right on various issues like the border, so Republicans turn to increasingly silly culture war issues to distinguish themselves and keep their base angry.

    Feels like society and political discourse keeps getting dumber. People I know rightly don’t trust mainstream media but are going down the alt-right pipeline online. Increasingly conspiratorial and arguing over things that don’t matter. The dumbest voices get amplified by Elon, and the internet is getting worse as a tool under a wave of AI slop.

  21. …..denigrating mothers…..

    Decoded….supporting women’s choice in relation to their bodies, their lives, their reproductive selves, their rights to abortion….

    The Nasty Reactionary Right are flogging a dish of hatred with revenge and then to follow with nostalgia puddings.

    They’re doing this for their own gratification, enrichment and self-aggrandisement.

  22. The brain…oh, the brain…..it resists changes, yet change is upon us all, like it or not. No wonder people are cross. Their lives are not their own. Poor old brains: built for repetition, for economy, for conservation of resources, for autonomic piloting. We are not well-equipped for Modern Times. No wonder so many want to halt/reverse/rescind/repeal/renounce the disruption.

    In my own way I’ve been doing the same thing. I have been repelling the Reactionary Right for almost 50 years. I detest them. I detest the disruption to my understanding of world-and-self that they have been publishing.

    The Nasty Reactionary Right have figured out how to use personal/internal/projected grievance for their own political, ideological and financial purposes. They do it all the time. They exploit the cognitive chemistry.

  23. Grifters Inc.: You won’t believe Trump family’s latest money grabs

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/2/2274316/-Grifters-Inc-You-won-t-believe-Trump-family-s-latest-money-grabs?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_3&pm_medium=web

    “The Trump family is the grift that keeps on grifting.

    Case in point: Former first lady Melania Trump shilled gold necklaces on X Wednesday, joining her husband Donald in exploiting their Trump brand to sell products and make a quick buck. The baubles are sold by USA Memorabilia, which also sells Trump-themed collectibles, coins Christmas ornaments, NFT trading cards, and, curiously, Melania’s new memoir.

    “Embrace boldness in your style this season with the ‘Vote Freedom’ necklace, which features the iconic Lady Liberty,” she wrote. “A tribute to America’s enduring commitment to freedom, this piece is a statement of pride and empowerment.””


  24. Stoogesays:
    Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 10:02 am
    …..denigrating mothers…..

    Decoded….supporting women’s choice in relation to their bodies, their lives, their reproductive selves, their rights to abortion….

    The Nasty Reactionary Right are flogging a dish of hatred with revenge and then to follow with nostalgia puddings.

    They’re doing this for their own gratification, enrichment and self-aggrandisement.

    Stooge
    “The Nasty Reactionary Right”, who wax lyrical about their wives and daughters in public,
    1. Vote against their interest
    2. Influence their women to vote against their interest in private.

  25. Such a pity that Don Old Trump is merely offering the disempowered and disenfranchised warmed-over, failed 20th century policies.

    * Women bare foot and pregnant and back in the kitchen except allowed out to go to church on Sundays
    * Fealty to a King and the Royal Family
    * Working in the Dark Satanic Mills for your Edgelord Overlords (winks at Elon), with no overtime rates and definitely no unions, unless they be complicit lapdogs (looking at you ILO and The Teamsters).
    * No more of those messy elections, except in so far as they are faux and rigged
    * A feeling of superiority due to the colour of your skin but a tolerance for those willing to be your Uncle Toms

    Ye gods! Why do we keep falling for this!?!

  26. Ven. If I was marking the debates a la school debating adjudication, I reckon Harris easily won vs Trump and Vance won vs Walz, but not by a lot.

  27. FUBAR at 8.55am: the problem I have with your analysis is that I find Trumpian/MAGA economics even stupider than Marxism.

    It’s designed to appeal to the mindset of grumpy old white pensioners who watch FOXTEL. MAGA Republicans have no meaningful proposals for bringing back lucrative blue collar jobs for ill-educated white people. Those jobs have gone to China and the third world and they ain’t coming back. Certainly not as a result of insane tariff hikes that will fuel disastrous global inflation. Australians whingeing about interest rates ATM should watch out.

    Any college-educated person who supports this crap is either a fool or (like Vance) completely insincere.

  28. The Democrats and the old school Republicans deserted middle America, destroyed their industries and their jobs

    Nah. Capitalism did that. Trump won’t change it.

    despises their culture and rams woke crap down their throat

    Never happened. Some people just think that “woke crap” existing is the same as having it rammed down their throats. Don’t be confused. Those people are the oppressors, not the oppressed.

    They never learned “live and let live”. It’s why same-sex marriage can’t be legal (nobody ever forced anyone to get one). Ditto abortion (likewise). They don’t want to enjoy their culture and peacefully coexist with others. They want the law to codify their culture and punish others who happen to live differently.

  29. Fubar, the problem is the Democrats manage to implement, what, about 20% of their policy prescriptions. In the case of first term Trump it was maybe 2% and those were policies that favour billionaires. So all the talk of the ideologies of MAGA vs traditional Republicans/Democrats is utterly moot. Trump can say whatever he wants, lie from both sides of his mouth, but the idea that he is the friend of, say, blue collar white males is complete rubbish. The Democrats, far from perfect as they are, have done more for the working class than Trump ever did.

  30. Bw
    Yes, it isn’t just that Trump has captured certain demographics (and how/why) but that the GOP reps have solidified so completely around him. This is a result of GOP culture of win at any cost that has been cultivated over decades but also the mob culture of Trump.

    It is a Dog Tail Tango.

  31. meher baba says Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 11:21 am

    FUBAR at 8.55am: the problem I have with your analysis is that I find Trumpian/MAGA economics even stupider than Marxism.

    It’s designed to appeal to the mindset of grumpy old white pensioners who watch FOXTEL. MAGA Republicans have no meaningful proposals for bringing back lucrative blue collar jobs for ill-educated white people. Those jobs have gone to China and the third world and they ain’t coming back. Certainly not as a result of insane tariff hikes that will fuel disastrous global inflation. Australians whingeing about interest rates ATM should watch out.

    I tend to agree. I would add that those jobs didn’t just go offshore, they also moved to the southern anti-union states.

    Trump promised to bring back jobs, but was too incompetent to actually do much. Biden actually did bring some of those jobs back, although he doesn’t seem to get much credit for it.

  32. The state polls in Penn, Wis and Mich continue to concern me.

    You could easily end up with something like a Harris national vote win by 5% and still lose the electoral college.

    This is the point where I have to really respect the SA Liberals who collaborated in ending the Playmander decades ago. It’s so difficult to dismantle these undemocratic gerrymanders without cooperation from the beneficiary.


  33. meher babasays:
    Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 11:15 am
    Ven. If I was marking the debates a la school debating adjudication, I reckon Harris easily won vs Trump and Vance won vs Walz, but not by a lot.

    meherbaba
    CBS poll after VP debate
    Vance: 42%
    Walz: 41%
    Tie: 17%

  34. I’m prefacing all this by saying I’m a never Trumper and believe he has more than lost his fast ball and the January 6th insurrection should have disqualified him from ever running again but who else do the Republicans have that could have won in 2016-2020-2024. I’m a Nikki Haley fan but while she’d appeal to independent voters she would have had the base stay home and would have been defeated by Harris this year too. I think Trump is the best shot the Republicans have of winning modern elections at the moment and that’s saying something about the modern Republican party.


  35. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 11:14 am
    Such a pity that Don Old Trump is merely offering the disempowered and disenfranchised warmed-over, failed 20th century policies.

    * Women bare foot and pregnant and back in the kitchen except allowed out to go to church on Sundays
    * Fealty to a King and the Royal Family
    * Working in the Dark Satanic Mills for your Edgelord Overlords (winks at Elon), with no overtime rates and definitely no unions, unless they be complicit lapdogs (looking at you ILO and The Teamsters).
    * No more of those messy elections, except in so far as they are faux and rigged
    * A feeling of superiority due to the colour of your skin but a tolerance for those willing to be your Uncle Toms

    Ye gods! Why do we keep falling for this!?!

    C@tmomma
    My post explains briefly how “The Nasty Reactionary Right” they vote and how they influence their women to vote.
    I will explain why? Because
    1. They want women to stay in kitchen as housewives
    2. The want women to carry pregnancy irrespective whether the pregnancy is due to rape, incest and the women life is in danger for things like miscarriage.
    3. They want to have sex with any number of women irrespective of whether that female is minor or not and the wife to stay silent about it.
    4. They don’t want women to have voting rights.
    5. They want girls as young as 9 years old to get pregnant as long as they can get pregnant.


  36. Chris Gaskinsays:
    Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 1:36 pm
    I’m prefacing all this by saying I’m a never Trumper and believe he has more than lost his fast ball and the January 6th insurrection should have disqualified him from ever running again but who else do the Republicans have that could have won in 2016-2020-2024. I’m a Nikki Haley fan but while she’d appeal to independent voters she would have had the base stay home and would have been defeated by Harris this year too. I think Trump is the best shot the Republicans have of winning modern elections at the moment and that’s saying something about the modern Republican party.

    Chris Gaskin
    Whether you like it and accept it or not, this rotten Republican party tree you described should be uprooted with root and all.
    The defeat should be so widespread and humiliating that the Conservatives should do deep introspection and come up with a better right-wing party.

  37. I think Trump is the best shot the Republicans have of winning modern elections at the moment and that’s saying something about the modern Republican party.

    who else do the Republicans have that could have won in 2016-2020-2024

    Quite a few people were making very similar comments about Biden, right up until the moment he withdrew from the race.

  38. For all their modern equipment and technology and FEMA, it appears Americans cannot do rescue and rehabilitation of people impacted by natural disasters.
    For example, relief operations after Katrina and now. It is as if they are paralyzed into inaction with disaster in front of them.

    The problem for America is that these natural disasters like hurricanes, twisters, winter freezes, hot summer fires will only increase with Trump gets elected or not.
    If Trump gets elected, things will only get worse because he doesn’t believe in Climate change and Project 2025 wants to dismantle agencies like FEMA.

    Is it possible that a lot of Americans think natural disasters will happen only outside America?

  39. sprocket says:
    Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 9:14 am
    Could Jack Smith latest filing be the October Surprise?

    You bet. Here is Brian Tyler Cohen, The Legal Breakdown with Glenn Kirschner on the Jack Smith filing:

    https://youtu.be/c_g54MAAksM

    Victoria says:
    Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 9:10 am
    The way things are going for Trump, he is going to stroke out.
    Will he even make it to the election.

    I reckon he’ll make it to the election but won’t make it to prison. He knows he is f**ked. Winning the presidency is all about staying out of prison and getting revenge. So if there is a chance of winning, he’ll stay in the race.
    How he will take defeat is another question. I always reckoned that he is the monkey not the organ grinder. And the organ grinder has taken steps in several swing states to delay certification of the EC vote. I think if there is a delay, it will be temporary. Once it becomes apparent that all avenues of delay are exhausted and Trump has lost, he will be diagnosed by a MAGA physician to be suffering a medical condition that would preclude him from serving prison time. After all, bone spurs kept him out of Vietnam.
    I hope I’m wrong re prison. Although I am with you & Mavis that he’ll lose “bigly”.

  40. Registered Republicans lead in […] PA

    Yes, but.

    Early days/very low numbers so far. Less than 0.1% of requested ballots have been returned.

  41. Also in WI it looks like you’ve attributed “Other” to Republicans. The numbers are 39% Dem / 17% Rep / 44% Other. Which actually looks like a sound thrashing for the Republicans. Unlike other states, this represents a decent chunk (20%) of total mail-in ballots requested.

    In MI the numbers are lumping together both postal votes and early in-person votes.

  42. Importantly, in the 538 poll average of the Generic Ballot (defacto vote for House of Rep) there’s been a 2.0 – 2.5% lead for the Democrats for 5 weeks. It has been very even for the vast bulk of the period since last November, with only a couple of short lived break outs of up to 1% lead for either side.

    2022 House vote margin was 2.7%. It looks like flipping back to the 2020 result and removing the 2022 result. This will give the Democrats a small majority in the House – maybe more given the very low number of Republican incumbents the Majority currently has.

    EVEN is Trump does win, this will be a different result to 2016, when he had a compliant Senate and House. Republicans actually won the 2022 House popular vote by 1%, even whilst Trump lost the President popular vote

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