The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 50.5-49.5, after a 50-50 result last time, from primary votes of Labor 30.5% (up one), Coalition 38.5% (up half), Greens 13.5% (down half) and One Nation 4% (down one). The pollster’s previous election preferences measure of two-party preferred has Labor’s lead unchanged at 51-49. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1698. Also of note on the polling front are further figures from the weekend’s Freshwater Strategy poll showing 50% support for a blanket ban on sports betting advertising, with 29% opposed. It also found 70% support for the actual government policy of a limit of two ads per hour up to 10pm with 16% opposed, the former figure presumably including many who feels it does not go far enough.
Federal preselection news:
• Labor’s national executive has taken over the party’s federal preselection process in Victoria at the behest of Anthony Albanese, invoking the disruption caused by the redistribution and its abolition of the Labor-held seat of Higgins. Among other things, this seems likely to ensure the Socialist Left-backed Basem Abdo succeeds the retiring Maria Vamvakinou in Calwell, which had been the source of some discontent in local branches. There are also reports that the federal branch of the Liberal Party is preparing to take over the affairs of its New South Wales branch after the sacking of state director Richard Shields in the wake of the council elections fiasco.
• Both the Liberals and the Nationals have candidates in place for the new seat of Bullwinkel on Perth’s eastern fringe, with army veteran and former journalist Matt Moran winning a Liberal preselection vote on the weekend ahead of Holly Ludeman, veterinarian and activist against a ban on live sheep exports, and lawyer Jonathan Crabtree. Former state party leader Mia Davies has been confirmed as the Nationals candidate. The West Australian today reports that a poll of 800 respondents in the electorate showing the Nationals polling well clear of the Liberals, although the more remarkable fact of the poll is that it has Labor leading 52-48, suggesting next to no swing from 2022. The primary votes quoted are Labor 22%, Nationals 20%, Liberal 12%, Greens 10% and independents 10%, with 23% undecided.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports five candidates for Liberal preselection in the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of Gavin Pearce. The two identified as front-runners are Belle Binder, a “young entrepreneur who has pioneered an innovative farm labour scheme”, and Latrobe deputy mayor Vonette Mead, with speculation the latter will withdraw amid strong backing for Binder from senior party figures. The report notes Senator Anne Urquhart and state MP Anita Dow have been identified as potential Labor candidates, but that the seat will only be reckoned an attractive prospect for Labor if federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek “sides with local industries in imminent decisions over a mine tailings dam at Rosebery and salmon farming in Macquarie Harbour”.
• Thomas Kelsall of InDaily reports Zane Basic, factional conservative former staffer to federal MP Nicolle Flint and current staffer to Queensland MP Bert van Manen, has won Liberal preselection to take on independent Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo. Basic won a party ballot ahead of Adelaide councillor Henry Davis.
• The Greens have endorsed Remah Naji, social worker and organiser of Justice for Palestine, as its candidate for the Brisbane seat of Moreton>. It remains unclear if Labor member Graham Perrett will seek re-election or make way for state secretary Julie-Ann Campbell, which would resolve an issue faced by the state branch in meeting its affirmative action quota.
A person at risk of being ruined by dental expenses is probably going to struggle to afford private health insurance too.
You have to be on Centrelink benefits to get a healthcare card. It’s not really an option for people who work.
As for Badthinker rehashing the fifty-year-old arguments that the sociopathic doctors’ lobbies used against Gough’s healthcare reforms back in the 1970s, with an added dollop of anti-vax crazy, I don’t even know what to say.
Rebecca, if Lamb can get some serious polling then it might shake things up even further left in metro Victoria. Which I can deff get behind
pied piper:
What are you, twelve?
laughtong says:
Monday, August 26, 2024 at 8:52 pm
Chalmers should stick to his job.
Asha, it’s the exact same logic I keep seeing that if a service can’t be made 100 percent rort proof, it isn’t viable.
It’s just bullshit (and never applies to rorts with, say, policing and the military, and rarely when it comes to tax payer contracts) and smacks of the same lack of understanding of purpose for when public transport can’t turn a profit etc.
Labor’s decision to stick with Coalition policy on LGBTQ people in the census is nuts, and justifying it with the incredibly insulting line that they’re ‘“razor-focused” on bringing down the cost of living rather than spending time talking about non-core issues’ is insane. It’s such absolute low-hanging fruit that the Coalition would have barely bothered to stick out a press release, but Albo decided to thumb his nose at the queer community for the hell of it anyway.
Labor’s losing the cost of living argument to the Coalition because they’re trying to play the strategy of mildly tweaking status quo policy on an issue where huge amounts of voters are incredibly unhappy with the status quo, and their usual strategy of ‘talk a big game but don’t actually do much’ makes them look fundamentally delusional on an issue on which lots of voters are paying close attention.
Deciding that the problem is that in fact, they just don’t have enough disgruntled voters, and would like more, is madness. It does nothing to stop cost of living voters being lost to the Coalition while begging for their primary vote to plunge to ever-lower depths.
A person at risk of being ruined by dental expenses is probably going to struggle to afford private health insurance too.
You had to pay a grand for an Oral Surgeon to more or less save your life, and you’re still whingeing?
Yeah sure PP, Indigenous people are all drunks in parks and all Indigenous youth are skipping school stealing from shops and taking drugs. They are bad as all the immigrants and terrorist refugees Albo is importing into the country by the millions. Really ? You ate so full of shit .
Austerity is coming with Dutton and crew:
Coalition’s $100bn in budget savings
The Coalition will go the next election with budget and off-budget savings of close to $100bn in a ‘back to basics’ inflation-fighting agenda that will see a raft of Labor spending programs axed.
Still waiting for my cost of power excluding government handouts to drop $275 a year.
FUBAR says:
Monday, August 26, 2024 at 9:38 pm
Still waiting for my cost of power excluding government handouts to drop $275 a year.
_________
Why? Is where the money comes from suddenly an issue for you? 🙂
FUBAR
Dont worry your mate will put you’re bills up in the stratosphere when you have to pay for his nuclear fantasy.
steve davis says:
Monday, August 26, 2024 at 9:37 pm
Who would want to fight inflation? Terrible policy.
Griff says:
Monday, August 26, 2024 at 9:40 pm
The government handouts are inflationary – that’s why we mortgage holders are paying higher interest bills than we would otherwise be paying.
The handouts are not guaranteed to continue being paid. Any reduction to date is an artificial one.
Labor does handouts WHINGEFEST
Labor doesnt do handouts WHINGEFEST.
“ Labor’s decision to stick with Coalition policy on LGBTQ people in the census is nuts”
The whole point of the census is to show where our taxpayers’ dollars need to be spent to service communities. I.e. lots of young families so we build schools or lots of elderly so we support community buses. LGBTQ people pay taxes and have specific needs that also require services.
@meher – in broad agreement.
I think the Albo government thought we’d have interest rate cuts and inflation subsided by now and they’d be able to announce some new spendy things. The entire period in office they’ve felt completely constrained by the inflation crisis they inherited and is not in any way their fault and yet which might kill the government anyway.
I have said the entire term in office that it is going to hinge on whether interest rates begin to subside in time. I’m still on that prediction.
Whatever political capital they had of advancing a bold agenda outside the constraints of inflation-fighting was squandered on the Voice campaign.
They could 100% be more dynamic and communicate better. It’s a definite complaint about this government and Labor in general for years, the lack of effective communication when under political fire.
I never used to think Albo was really up to being leader and his early performance in Opposition (albeit hampered a lot by the pandemic) seemed to confirm that but then he seemed to reinvent himself in the year or so prior to the last election. I think he’s backslid a bit since, and really needs to catch back up with his 2022 self.
Agreed Elmer.
Anyone who thinks locking 10 year old kids up is the solution does not have a fucking clue.
Unfortunately, the rednecks are out in force tonight, encouraged by the rednecks getting a win in the NT.
Let’s see how that ends for the NT, hint, it’s not going to be good.
Same rednecks getting excited about a Morgan Poll…pfffftttt!
Remember you LNP lot, you need to win all of the Teals seats back before you even get a sniff of getting back into government!
Elmer Fuddsays:
Monday, August 26, 2024 at 9:36 pm
Yeah sure PP, Indigenous people are all drunks in parks and all Indigenous youth are skipping school stealing from shops and taking drugs.
Never been to the Territory, but a mate spent a few years there.
Plenty of stories, only one involved Aborigines.
He was in a prison farm [for Fraud] the Dep’t bought a couple of excavators and started a Civil Works program.
Great, it beats looking at the calendar.
Anyway, the Indigenes didn’t want to work, so they burnt the excavators.
Now, RWNJ’s will be tearing their hair out by now, and my mate wasn’t happy, but it was a pretty neat solution to the problem and obviated negotiation.
In my opinion.
Happened around 1989.
Same guy had a photo of himself on the beach at Streaky Bay, c. 1970 with his right hand on the shoulder of an Elephant Seal.
Standing up.
He said he was pretty drunk at the time.
Elmer Fuddsays:
Monday, August 26, 2024 at 8:31 pm
Nadia I’m not seeing how the Teals except perhaps the one in WA are going to fade away unless or until either the Greens get into 2nd on PV or the Strategic Labor voters abandon the Teal on 2nd preferences in inner……………..Cheers.
======================
Fair post Elmer, however…
The Teals are not an organised political party. They have no guaranteed funding structure and don’t have a party infrastructure behind them. In simple speak, once the funding gets cut off, it’s all over red rover. It’s all very well to have a bunch of dedicated supporters wandering around with orange or purple t-shirts and holding like coloured balloons in their hands, but this is not the making of a serious party. It’s policies and leadership which count. The Teals lack both I’m sorry to say. No leader.
Lets look at Teal Kooyong as an example.
The Greens pulled a 21% primary and came 2nd in 2019, in a “so called” blue ribbon Lib seat.
Most of this vote went to Ryan in 2022 (in fact 15 or 21% went to Ryan from the Greens).
The Greens, will be motivated to get their own candidate elected there, & not some “teal” who is not loyal to the party values. The point I’m making is that Green, and to an extent Labor voters, strategically voted to get rid of the incumbent Lib politician.
Now that the “dirty” has been done, the focus will be on getting either a Green or Labor member elected. In Kooyong, I’d say eventually it will be a Green, going by the 2019 figures where they trounced Labor.
In simple speak, the so called support for a Teal candidate is really a mirage. For Ryan, it is a cloud.
The real game is to get a Green or Labor candidate in who is loyal to their party structure.
Just on Kooyong though, I think it will go back to the Libs next election based on the Hamer name (she’s the niece of a former Vic Premier). Eventually it will go Green after 2 cycles.
Just the way it is i think.
Badthinker
You need to have a really good hard look at yourself!
Making up stories to suit your racist narrative is not a good look.
Fubar…
Well, you are unlucky not to get a electricity bill reduction – or whatever – but think of us poor sods still waiting for Tony Abbott’s $450 was it (?) to drop. What, nearly 10 years now?
Mind you I am pleased $100 roasts and the death knell of Whyalla did not come to pass.
Mind you with a Dutton government the $100 a roast and Whyalla mothballed could be on the cards in any event. In that way, the Liberals can claim they kept a promise even though it might take 15 years to happen.
You LNP guy leave the rest of us in the dust when it comes to Rolls-Royce hypocrisy.
I take it you have sent your $350 rebate back to the Federal and State government then? And pigs might fly…….
Rebecca says:
Monday, August 26, 2024 at 9:28 pm
Labor’s decision to stick with Coalition policy on LGBTQ people in the census is nuts, …… but Albo decided to thumb his nose at the queer community for the hell of it
————
I have no idea what a LGBTQ+ person is. I wish it all the best. Is “it” Some novel grotesque of the 21st century?
I am a gay man. Only homophobes call gay men “queer”. Like the Darlinghurst police and the Sydney pofter bashers of the 80s.
But Genderism is the new chic expression of homophobia.sadly supported by the “progressive” homophobes in the Greens and. ALP.
I’ve voted ALP/Greens since 1972. The next national election is going to be a real challenge. Maybe an informal for the first time in my life.
Redneck -a working class person.
The fact that labor luvvies use that word as an insult says everything about how they have abandoned the people they once represented.
There is 6 rebates on my latest electricity bill. Its more than $275 a year thats for sure.
Just now.
Making up stories to suit your racist narrative is not a good look.
Not my story, the bloke that told me was Aboriginal.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Ever meet Jimmy Edwards?
He was an artist among other things, had a studio at Kuranda, died there around 2011.
I watched the ABC Four Corners episode tonight on Hezbolah vs Israel. I recommend it. I found it realistic (huge risk of a regional war, balanced (not flattering of Hezbolah, Iran or Israel) and well researched, with the team visiting Iran, Lebanon and evacuated parts of northern Israel and the Golan Heights.
Well done ABC, more episodes of this quality on major issues please.
Redneck = Racist, misogynist, ignorant, mentally challenged in all things pertaining to decency and supporters of any right-wing government determined to destroy basic humanity.
Don’t dare insult working class people with that tag.
Rik, I have queer family members, and that’s the first I seen the shit you’ve just said. Let me guess… you think the T in Lgbtq+ should go?
Bad thinker, it’s true that some people don’t want to work for whatever reason they may have. The capitalist economy needs about 5% unemployment to keep the economy running with enough fear in the work place so they can treat us like work slaves (credit cards help).
Just because you disrespect unfortunate people doesn’t mean they should have to live lives where you spit on them.
This is why I advocate for a universal living wage.
Australia is amongst the most conservative non-progressive countries in the western world.
Still, I’m sure Fubar’s natural born ruling progeny will save the rest of our children.
Hmmmm google following words -redneck meaning .
Educate your racist mind.
Lordbainsays:
Monday, August 26, 2024 at 8:45 pm
Nadia, I shake my fist at you for bringing my attention to that preference flow report from our lord and master…
=================================
Gosh LB. Don’t blame me for the numbers. I went through that in June/July. I was almost too scared to look at a poll at one point. The poster WB referenced on the other blog, is a fairly accurate poster on this site. He doesn’t post often, but when he does I def stop my scroll wheel.
Thank you Nadia for taking the time to respond to my post. I think you are a bit quick to dismiss the grass roots support of the Teals as a passing trend and you haven’t shown me why ex Liberal voters will switch from Teal to Green or why 3rd in the race Labor voters would 2nd preference a Green over a Teal in those inner metro seats. Having said that, I enjoy your posts and speculations even if I disagree with some of it. Have a good night
Hello Been There!
Haven’t seen you on the site for a while. Hope all’s well with you.
Has been a busy weekend with polls and elections
You know how I said it could be anyone’s game if Labor or liberal doesn’t do something stupid considering that the liberal party is just done something stupid saying they’re going to do a hundred billion dollars in spending cuts well if labour smart they should attack there say what type of cuts Medicare and the is basically keep pounding on them on the cuts because people people want to know in the 100 billion dollar cuts
Had a look Pied, sure some are working class, but the description meets a lot of the criteria I mentioned.
Basically, Trump voters and Dutton supporters, uneducated.
Granny Anny says: Monday, August 26, 2024 at 7:17 pm
Flicking through todays’s posts, and saw this.
Lia Finocchiaro’s comments show that she has no idea of the causes of why kids commit crime. By cutting the benefits of parents whose children commit crime, she is encouraging those very children to fend for themselves, to get food anyway they can, including bag snatches, shop lifting etc.
Going back to our family experience, we bought a house on the fringes of the Waterloo Estate (near Redfern) in 2003, after coming from the Blue Mountains. It was an eye-opening experience for all of but one we have been mostly happy to have, even thought there were problems.
Finocchiaro sounds like she lives in some middle class enclave (like the Blue Mountains), and cannot even comprehend what life is like for really poor people. And the Waterloo estate is like large parts of the NT.
After we bought our house here (an earlier Nick Greiner sell-off of public housing I later discovered), we soon had a visit from the local Department of Housing local representative, who asked us to let her know if there were any problems we wanted to report to the NSW Department of Housing. When I said we had bought the place, she was very surprised. It was the same story from my son, when he talked to the locals who lived in houses the same as ours. Youngest came home and told me that the local people could not imaging how rich we must be to actually own a house.
My youngest was 12 when we moved here, and he quickly became friends with some of the local kids. They were nice kids, generally, but so many of them did not get enough to eat. I kept an open house, as I did in the Blue Mountains ( I did not mind having a horde of kids at my place, because then I always knew where my kids were). But so many of these kids needed food, and as my son moved into the teenage years, were effectively homeless. I got very good at at saying ” yes, he followed you home, and yes, he can stay for tonight, but tomorrow I will organise other accommodation through homelessness services.”
I remember my youngest, not long after we moved to Waterloo, saying “kids around here do not commit bag snatches to get drugs, they do it to get food.”
So, Finocchiaro has obviously not talked to people who deal with very disadvantaged communities, let alone people who might live in them.
Granny Anny says: Monday, August 26, 2024 at 7:17 pm
Flicking through todays’s posts, and saw this.
Lia Finocchiaro’s comments show that she has no idea of the causes of why kids commit crime. By cutting the benefits of parents whose children commit crime, she is encouraging those very children to fend for themselves, to get food anyway they can, including bag snatches, shop lifting etc.
Going back to our family experience, we bought a house on the fringes of the Waterloo Estate (near Redfern) in 2003, after coming from the Blue Mountains. It was an eye-opening experience for all of but one we have been mostly happy to have, even thought there were problems.
Finocchiaro sounds like she lives in some middle class enclave (like the Blue Mountains), and cannot even comprehend what life is like for really poor people. And the Waterloo estate is like large parts of the NT.
After we bought our house here (an earlier Nick Greiner sell-off of public housing I later discovered), we soon had a visit from the local Department of Housing local representative, who asked us to let her know if there were any problems we wanted to report to the NSW Department of Housing. When I said we had bought the place, she was very surprised. It was the same story from my son, when he talked to the locals who lived in houses the same as ours. Youngest came home and told me that the local people could not imaging how rich we must be to actually own a house.
My youngest was 12 when we moved here, and he quickly became friends with some of the local kids. They were nice kids, generally, but so many of them did not get enough to eat. I kept an open house, as I did in the Blue Mountains ( I did not mind having a horde of kids at my place, because then I always knew where my kids were). But so many of these kids needed food, and as my son moved into the teenage years, were effectively homeless. I got very good at at saying ” yes, he followed you home, and yes, he can stay for tonight, but tomorrow I will organise other accommodation through homelessness services.”
I remember my youngest, not long after we moved to Waterloo, saying “kids around here do not commit bag snatches to get drugs, they do it to get food.”
So, Finocchiaro has obviously not talked to people who deal with very disadvantaged communities, let alone people who might live in them.
@nadia – “Lets look at Teal Kooyong as an example.
The Greens pulled a 21% primary and came 2nd in 2019, in a “so called” blue ribbon Lib seat.”
Point of information – that was with Julian Burnside as the candidate. Burnside was an excellent fit for the seat – a proto Teal really.
” Just on Kooyong though, I think it will go back to the Libs next election based on the Hamer name (she’s the niece of a former Vic Premier).”
The Hamer name has fuck all value to anybody under 70. Most voters might think of Hamer Hall if they think of anything … but not vote for her on that.
Maybe if her name was Amelia Daicos that would have name value around here.
If Kooyong goes back to the Libs it is from the redistribution, not Amelia Hamer’s name value.
“Eventually it will go Green after 2 cycles.”
Extreme doubt. You’re misled by the Greens getting an abnormal vote in 2019 due to a specific candidate and some tactical voting in the hope that candidate could spring the upset, that was still miles off being a threat to Frydenberg. The key swing votes who won it for Ryan are people who usually vote Coalition but couldn’t stomach the climate denialism and other anti-intellectual culture wars any further, but also couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Labor or the Greens.
Labor has gone big 365 billion in two years of spending pledges.
Throw in 7 million temp visas they approved last financial year says home affairs and you do not wonder why they are in all sorts of trouble.
Eddysays:
Monday, August 26, 2024 at 10:14 pm
Bad thinker, … Just because you disrespect unfortunate people doesn’t mean they should have to live lives where you spit on them.
Eddy, are you sure you’ve got the right bloke here?
I didn’t dream up the White Australia Policy, that was the Australian Labor Party’s idea, 100%.
Same with the Qld Aborigines Acts, 100% Labor.
Contemporary Labor is into victimising the Indigenous 24/7, but Middle Australia isn’t buying it.
Nadia88
I understand your analysis of the Teal seats like Kooyong but disagree with your conclusions. I think the Teals are part of a broader long term trends that pre-dates them and suggests more independent MPs in parliament is something we better get used to.
This trend started with Ted Mack and Peter Andren back in the 1990s. The smaller the major parties vote shares have gotten, the greater the chance of independent MPs winning.
The evidence over the past 30 years, IMO, is that if an independent candidate has a prominent profile and local focused grassroots campaign they are very hard to shift once elected.
In the current parliament Sharkey, Haines, Wilkie and Steggal all pre-dated the Teals and all have survived despite high cost campaigns to shift them. Only one of those, Steggal, holds a formerly Liberal inner city seat.
I’m not saying every teal will get reelected – perhaps Cheney and Ryan are most at risk. To declare a bias, I have a work colleague who lives in Curtain. He thinks Cheney is very popular locally, and has a strong chance of re-election.
Far from going away, the number of teal MPs may increase. This is why I think Dutton has little chance of becoming PM. This is also why I think minority government is likely in 2025. When Gillard was PM of a minority government there were four on the crossbench. Now there are ten. In 2025?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jun/17/climate-200-names-nine-new-coalition-seats-where-it-hopes-to-replicate-teal-wave-at-next-election
Strong points Socrates, and it’s been the pattern for some time, hidden somewhat by the nature of the LNP already being a coalition and how its confounds the actual voting percentages of 2 parties as 1 versus everyone else.
Hi Nadia
All’s good with me, hope it’s the same with you.
Busy times indeed with polls, both here and the US.
Quietly confident, despite the negativity, Labor on track to win the next Federal election comfortably as well as Hariss/Walz to romp in in the US.
Usual desperados flailing around.
Interesting times.
Lordbain
Thanks and agreed. Also it is not just an anti-Liberal trend. Wilkie holds a former a Labor seat. He is virtually unshift-able regardless.
Douglas and Milko says:
Monday, August 26, 2024 at 10:26 pm
Yeah, you’re right. The new CM of the NT has no idea about what is happening in her community.
Elmer Fuddsays:
Monday, August 26, 2024 at 10:20 pm
Thank you Nadia for taking the time to respond to my post. I think you are a bit quick to dismiss the grass roots support of the Teals as a passing trend and you haven’t shown me why ex Liberal voters will switch from Teal to Green or why 3rd in the race Labor voters would 2nd preference a Green over a Teal in those inner metro seats. Having said that, I enjoy your posts and speculations even if I disagree with some of it. Have a good night
============================
All good Elmer. Up for a poll chat anytime
The point I was making is that the ex-Libs In Kooyong, will return to mama cow and vote Hamer in.
There was only a small contigent of Libs who supported Ryan. The bulk of her support came from Greens and ALP voters. Remember, Josh still topped the primaries in Kooyong, and Amelia Hamer will benefit from the Toorak areas added to Kooyong. I am sure Hamer will jag that seat off Ryan.
Edit: But only for a couple of cycles. The seat is going Green in the longer term.
Arky
Extreme doubt. You’re misled by the Greens getting an abnormal vote in 2019 due to a specific candidate and some tactical voting in the hope that candidate could spring the upset, that was still miles off being a threat to Frydenberg.
The situation was a little different.
Oliver Yates challenged Frydenberg early in 2019, then Julian Burnside jumped in.
Yates went to the Court of Disputed Returns [or some other tribunal] over irregularities in the Poll, but was told they wouldn’t overturn the reult in favor of a candidate who only polled 9% Primaries.
What the situation was, I don’t remember, but Yates may have got screwed.
https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseDivisionPage-24310-221.htm
Bad thinker, I may have got you as the wrong person. Sorry.
I actually can’t remember how long I’ve been angry for. But I do remember why.