The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 50.5-49.5, after a 50-50 result last time, from primary votes of Labor 30.5% (up one), Coalition 38.5% (up half), Greens 13.5% (down half) and One Nation 4% (down one). The pollster’s previous election preferences measure of two-party preferred has Labor’s lead unchanged at 51-49. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1698. Also of note on the polling front are further figures from the weekend’s Freshwater Strategy poll showing 50% support for a blanket ban on sports betting advertising, with 29% opposed. It also found 70% support for the actual government policy of a limit of two ads per hour up to 10pm with 16% opposed, the former figure presumably including many who feels it does not go far enough.
Federal preselection news:
• Labor’s national executive has taken over the party’s federal preselection process in Victoria at the behest of Anthony Albanese, invoking the disruption caused by the redistribution and its abolition of the Labor-held seat of Higgins. Among other things, this seems likely to ensure the Socialist Left-backed Basem Abdo succeeds the retiring Maria Vamvakinou in Calwell, which had been the source of some discontent in local branches. There are also reports that the federal branch of the Liberal Party is preparing to take over the affairs of its New South Wales branch after the sacking of state director Richard Shields in the wake of the council elections fiasco.
• Both the Liberals and the Nationals have candidates in place for the new seat of Bullwinkel on Perth’s eastern fringe, with army veteran and former journalist Matt Moran winning a Liberal preselection vote on the weekend ahead of Holly Ludeman, veterinarian and activist against a ban on live sheep exports, and lawyer Jonathan Crabtree. Former state party leader Mia Davies has been confirmed as the Nationals candidate. The West Australian today reports that a poll of 800 respondents in the electorate showing the Nationals polling well clear of the Liberals, although the more remarkable fact of the poll is that it has Labor leading 52-48, suggesting next to no swing from 2022. The primary votes quoted are Labor 22%, Nationals 20%, Liberal 12%, Greens 10% and independents 10%, with 23% undecided.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports five candidates for Liberal preselection in the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of Gavin Pearce. The two identified as front-runners are Belle Binder, a “young entrepreneur who has pioneered an innovative farm labour scheme”, and Latrobe deputy mayor Vonette Mead, with speculation the latter will withdraw amid strong backing for Binder from senior party figures. The report notes Senator Anne Urquhart and state MP Anita Dow have been identified as potential Labor candidates, but that the seat will only be reckoned an attractive prospect for Labor if federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek “sides with local industries in imminent decisions over a mine tailings dam at Rosebery and salmon farming in Macquarie Harbour”.
• Thomas Kelsall of InDaily reports Zane Basic, factional conservative former staffer to federal MP Nicolle Flint and current staffer to Queensland MP Bert van Manen, has won Liberal preselection to take on independent Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo. Basic won a party ballot ahead of Adelaide councillor Henry Davis.
• The Greens have endorsed Remah Naji, social worker and organiser of Justice for Palestine, as its candidate for the Brisbane seat of Moreton>. It remains unclear if Labor member Graham Perrett will seek re-election or make way for state secretary Julie-Ann Campbell, which would resolve an issue faced by the state branch in meeting its affirmative action quota.
Socrates says:
Monday, August 26, 2024 at 6:27 pm
A belated thanks for your response. I agree that there is no-one remaining able to field stupid proposals before they are latched onto by technically illiterate politicians and AUKUS is a shocker. In the West there used to be a 200+ cohort of professional engineers in the organisation I worked with for a decade and by and large that group had some moderating influence on successive state governments. Of course we then had Bourke who was a sworn enemy of engineers from his (failed) UWA student days. Subsequently Colin’s canal brainfart and other lesser stupidities.
Just thinking of some recent/current politicians claiming to be professional engineers. Malcolm Roberts and Newman don’t exactly make one confident.
“Anthony Albanese problem was that he he was probably just gonna be a safe prime minister for the first term and then do what he wanted to do during the second term”
His problem is what he is doing in this term is exactly what he wants to do in this term and the next term.
Poliphili
Thanks. What field did you work in? It has been transport and infrastructure for me.
Queensland Main Roads was the same when I first worked there in the 1980s and 1990s. There was a strong cadre of engineers with excellent in-house training.
Even allowing for inflation, road projects then were done far more cheaply than now. Getting rid of in-house expertise from the public service has not benefited taxpayers.
MRWA was also very good back then too. Sadly it has declined a lot too. I had to review the “Row 8” freeway proposal a few years ago and was shocked by basic flaws in the concept design. The environmental controversy hid the fact that the concept as a piece of transport engineering was ill-conceived.
The degree of scientific illiteracy in current and previous Federal cabinets is so great I sometimes wonder how many of them have even done high school chemistry and physics to grade 12 level? The inability of many to explain concepts of climate change suggests limited understanding of basic thermodynamics.
Malcolm Roberts is an embarrassment to our profession. Many of his statements contradicted Engineers Australia’s policy on climate science. Campbell Newman barely practiced as an engineer before embarking on his political career.
Badthinker the Time Traveller:
No, it wasn’t.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Australia_policy
The ALP were certainly the most enthusiastic supporters of the policy among the three main federation-era Australian political parties, and their fierce advocacy for what was an incredibly popular policy with huge support across the Australian population did lead to the Protectionist and Free Traders embracing it more strongly than they may have otherwise done so. But the latter were still strong supporters of he policy, and it was Barton and Deakin – the senior members in the government of the day – who ultimately did the legwork in making it law. Labor were still a third party then, albeit one with that held a commanding balance of power in the parliament.
The proposition to restrict immigration to Australia on racial grounds was developed and advocated by numerous different groups and politicians, many of whom loathed the trade union movement (who, yes, did play a significant role in popularising it) and everything they stood for.
Make no mistake, this was about as bipartisan a political debate as this country has ever had (one lone member of the first federal parliament opposed the White Australia Policy), and every person who mattered at the time – Barton, Deakin, Reid, Forrest, Cook, Lyne, Isaacs, Watson, Fisher, Hughes – strongly supported the policy, often speaking at length in and out of parliament about its virtues.
Though I can’t for the life of my comprehend what the White Australia Policy – which was established 123 years ago, dismantled in the 1960s and 1970s, and abandoned by the ALP in the mid-to-late 60s after Whitlam took over as leader – has to with either the present day Labor Party or the discussion we are currently having. The vast majority of Labor MPs (and a significant majority of their members and supporters) alive today hadn’t even been born when the the White Australia Policy was removed from the ALP platform.
Well said, D&M.
Pied piper says Monday, August 26, 2024 at 10:28 pm
Are you suggesting we shouldn’t allow tourists? That would do wonders for the economy. Or are you suggesting we no longer require temporary visitors to have a visa?
Edit: I should have suggested the third option of you just trolling.
Tony Burke personally reviewing Candace Owens visa application.
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/home-affairs-minister-tony-burke-to-personally-review-visa-of-farright-commentator-candace-owens/news-story/e6a1a05d77e1550f3a03bf772cceddca
Who said he’s not tough on visas?
For what it’s worth, my local member was an engineer before entering Parliament (https://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Parliamentarian?MPID=298800).
Arky says:
Monday, August 26, 2024 at 10:27 pm
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Your comment:
Burnside was an excellent fit for the seat – a proto Teal really.
My Comment:
Burnside is a Green, & not some sort of “proto Teal”.
The Greens don’t do proto teals. You’re either a Green, or your out.
He pulled a 22% primary and beat Labor into 2nd place in 2019. That’s the future.
This means there is a strong Green base in the area. Don’t worry, I know.
The area west of Tooronga Rd is solid Green, as well as pockets of Kew & Glenferrie
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Your comment:
The Hamer name has fuck all value to anybody under 70. Most voters might think of Hamer Hall if they think of anything … but not vote for her on that.
My Comment: The purpose of the Hamer name is to galvanise the Lib base in Kooyong. What non Libs think of it, is irrelevent. If some think it relates to “Hamer Hall”, well good luck. It does by the way, but after Rupert. The Kooyong branch of the Libs is the biggest in Australia. About 1550 members.
That’s a lot of supporters handing out HTV cards, and they will be galvanised behind her. She has united both the moderate & conservative Lib factions behind her. A rarity in Vic, given the troubles the state Libs are in. She’s going to win that seat.
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Your comment:
Maybe if her name was Amelia Daicos that would have name value around here.
My comment:
Would it & which part.
The Amelia or the Daicos part? The Daicos family grew up in Preston (in Melbourne’s inner northern suburbs for the non-Vic posters). Do you know Melbourne better than me, because I grew up in Melbourne and know it very well. Try me on if you wish to.
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Your comment:
If Kooyong goes back to the Libs it is from the redistribution, not Amelia Hamer’s name value.
My comment: Does it make a difference.
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Your comment: The key swing votes who won it for Ryan are people who usually vote Coalition …..
My Comment: Utter rubbish. Of Monique’s 40% primary, only 6.5% came from the Libs (and most of that was from a Lib independent who campaigned in 2019. His name was Oliver Yates). The rest came from the Greens and the ALP, and a bit from AJP. If you don’t believe me, check wikipedia.
Thing I learnt today, people who are called “Red Necks” in the former slave states are called “Red Legs” in the Caribbean with the same derivation – white people who get too much sun through labouring. In both jurisdictions “poor white trash” is an equivalent term.
Many red legs claim descent from Irish peasants who were transported en masse during the Cromwellian invasion.
nadia88says:
Monday, August 26, 2024 at 11:30 pm
Arky says:
Monday, August 26, 2024 at 10:27 pm
===================================================
Your comment:
Burnside was an excellent fit for the seat – a proto Teal really.
My Comment:
Burnside is a Green, & not some sort of “proto Teal”.
The Greens don’t do proto teals. You’re either a Green, or your out.
He pulled a 22% primary and beat Labor into 2nd place in 2019. That’s the future.
This means there is a strong Green base in the area. Don’t worry, I know.
The area west of Tooronga Rd is solid Green, as well as pockets of Kew & Glenferrie
———————-
Since when has the area west of Tooronga Rd solid green? because the two booths west of Tooronga Rd were Frydenberg’s best Hawthorn booths.
Arky
If Kooyong goes back to the Libs it is from the redistribution, not Amelia Hamer’s name value.
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The redistribution won’t make much difference because the areas added match the rest of the seat so if Ryan losses in Malvern then she’s also probably losing in Camberwell and Balywn.
nadia88
My Comment: Utter rubbish. Of Monique’s 40% primary, only 6.5% came from the Libs (and most of that was from a Lib independent who campaigned in 2019. His name was Oliver Yates). The rest came from the Greens and the ALP, and a bit from AJP. If you don’t believe me, check wikipedia.
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Did some research into the liberal vote in teal and independent seats but will post it here closer to the election.
Falling interest rates is what will improve Labor’s position. Another bout of leadershit is the last thing they or the country needs, no matter how much it appeals to tragics like people on here
The Albanese government has announced it will cap international student levels at 270,000 for the next calendar year. This would cover the higher education and vocational education and training (VET) sectors and bring the number of new international student commencements “back to pre-pandemic levels”, the government said in a statement.
The new approach would see around 145,000 new international student commencements in publicly funded universities next year, “which is around 2023 levels”, the government said.
For other universities and for non-university higher education providers, in aggregate, their new international student commencements in 2025 will be around 30,000. The new approach will also see around 95,000 new VET international student commencements in 2025.