The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 50.5-49.5, after a 50-50 result last time, from primary votes of Labor 30.5% (up one), Coalition 38.5% (up half), Greens 13.5% (down half) and One Nation 4% (down one). The pollster’s previous election preferences measure of two-party preferred has Labor’s lead unchanged at 51-49. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1698. Also of note on the polling front are further figures from the weekend’s Freshwater Strategy poll showing 50% support for a blanket ban on sports betting advertising, with 29% opposed. It also found 70% support for the actual government policy of a limit of two ads per hour up to 10pm with 16% opposed, the former figure presumably including many who feels it does not go far enough.
Federal preselection news:
• Labor’s national executive has taken over the party’s federal preselection process in Victoria at the behest of Anthony Albanese, invoking the disruption caused by the redistribution and its abolition of the Labor-held seat of Higgins. Among other things, this seems likely to ensure the Socialist Left-backed Basem Abdo succeeds the retiring Maria Vamvakinou in Calwell, which had been the source of some discontent in local branches. There are also reports that the federal branch of the Liberal Party is preparing to take over the affairs of its New South Wales branch after the sacking of state director Richard Shields in the wake of the council elections fiasco.
• Both the Liberals and the Nationals have candidates in place for the new seat of Bullwinkel on Perth’s eastern fringe, with army veteran and former journalist Matt Moran winning a Liberal preselection vote on the weekend ahead of Holly Ludeman, veterinarian and activist against a ban on live sheep exports, and lawyer Jonathan Crabtree. Former state party leader Mia Davies has been confirmed as the Nationals candidate. The West Australian today reports that a poll of 800 respondents in the electorate showing the Nationals polling well clear of the Liberals, although the more remarkable fact of the poll is that it has Labor leading 52-48, suggesting next to no swing from 2022. The primary votes quoted are Labor 22%, Nationals 20%, Liberal 12%, Greens 10% and independents 10%, with 23% undecided.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports five candidates for Liberal preselection in the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of Gavin Pearce. The two identified as front-runners are Belle Binder, a “young entrepreneur who has pioneered an innovative farm labour scheme”, and Latrobe deputy mayor Vonette Mead, with speculation the latter will withdraw amid strong backing for Binder from senior party figures. The report notes Senator Anne Urquhart and state MP Anita Dow have been identified as potential Labor candidates, but that the seat will only be reckoned an attractive prospect for Labor if federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek “sides with local industries in imminent decisions over a mine tailings dam at Rosebery and salmon farming in Macquarie Harbour”.
• Thomas Kelsall of InDaily reports Zane Basic, factional conservative former staffer to federal MP Nicolle Flint and current staffer to Queensland MP Bert van Manen, has won Liberal preselection to take on independent Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo. Basic won a party ballot ahead of Adelaide councillor Henry Davis.
• The Greens have endorsed Remah Naji, social worker and organiser of Justice for Palestine, as its candidate for the Brisbane seat of Moreton>. It remains unclear if Labor member Graham Perrett will seek re-election or make way for state secretary Julie-Ann Campbell, which would resolve an issue faced by the state branch in meeting its affirmative action quota.
Trigger warning for BW
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2024/aug/21/everyone-loves-a-tiny-baby-stingray-looking-thing-is-the-maugean-skate-saved
It’s not just the skate of course which is being threatened by salmon farming, the entire harbour is being turned into an aquatic desert. But sure, 120 jobs is WAY more important than an entire ecosystem
The harbour has an average depth of only 15m, a narrow opening and very low tidal flows making it uniquely unsuited for intensive fish farming
Regardless of your views on the salmon industry in general, in the specific case of Macquarie Harbour it should be banned. That BW values a paltry 120 jobs (which can be relocated to a more suitable location, although probably not on the west coast of Tassie admittedly) more than the destruction of an entire ecosystem reflects poorly on his character
#weatheronPB
Fog visits again.
A drab, damp, unsettling guest.
Unwelcome as well.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
In this interesting essay, Shaun Carney examines how Peter Dutton has got to where he is in the polls. He says that Dutton is a purely political animal in a way that no-one among his contemporaries can equal. His relentlessness is a thing to behold. Dutton has pressed many buttons, and Carney says he is ruthless about it because he can afford to be. He operates freely in the knowledge that News Corp will always ride shotgun for him. He concludes with, “Labor has operated in the belief that most voters would not be able to bring themselves to make Dutton prime minister. Too scary, too negative, too strange. Once upon a time, they used to think that about Tony Abbott.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-peter-dutton-has-in-common-with-australia-s-most-famous-fly-spray-20240820-p5k3x7.html
Bill Shorten’s reforms to the National Disability Insurance Scheme will clear the parliament after he won the support of the Coalition and state premiers, kick-starting major changes to rein in ballooning costs in the $42 billion scheme. The new laws will greenlight an “in-and-out” list about what qualifies as NDIS supports while introducing an assessment process for participants that scraps the current diagnosis list. People will start receiving longer plans, of up to five years, with capped budgets that release money in intervals, writes Natassia Chrysanthos.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ndis-no-longer-a-political-football-shorten-gets-deal-done-for-scheme-reboot-20240821-p5k437.html
The AFR explains how South Australia’s Peter Malinauskas and Tasmania’s Jeremy Rockliff have helped broker a major deal on disability governance, helping push through reform legislation in the Senate.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/premiers-sign-on-to-ndis-reform-weakening-veto-rights-20240821-p5k43l
Kylea Tink said she will explore the possibility of making a complaint about Coalition MPs sending out electronic direct mail that she said is “inflammatory”. Olivia Ireland writes that after Allegra Spender complained after QT, Milton Dick said he agreed with Spender. “We must find ways to better engage in debate that maintains respectful behaviour … I shall reflect on standards and behaviour in recent times and report back to the member.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/unlike-any-workplace-i-ve-ever-been-in-the-push-to-punish-mps-for-bad-behaviour-20240821-p5k40t.html
Sussan Ley, though, says the Coalition makes “no apology” for its “passion”-filled performances in question time as parliamentary workplace behaviour is once again in the spotlight.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/21/sussan-ley-defends-coalitions-question-time-passion-as-labor-proposes-penalties-for-politicians-bad-behaviour-ntwnfb
Michelle Grattan reckons a new watchdog won’t stop bad behaviour in parliament.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-new-watchdog-wont-stop-bad-behaviour-in-parliament-237210
Two of the most senior NSW Liberal MPs have denied white-anting Mark Speakman after a radio shock jock alleged they were leaking against both the state opposition leader and division president Don Harwin. Max Maddison tells us that yesterday veteran 2GB radio host Ray Hadley claimed senior Liberals Anthony Roberts and Alister Henskens were leaking to undermine the moderate leaders and capitalise on the party’s council election bungle.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/two-nsw-liberal-mps-deny-leaking-against-leader-as-fallout-from-council-bungle-grows-20240821-p5k44n.html
The NSW Liberal omnishambles just keeps on unravelling. Not only has gross incompetence left the party missing candidates for the upcoming local government elections, but now the first signs of open internecine factional brawling are further adding to the mayhem, says the SMH editorial.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/liberal-infighting-threatens-to-make-nomination-debacle-even-worse-20240821-p5k43h.html
Cautious to the point of being circumspect, Communications Minister Michelle Rowland is not a risk-taking politician. Her reluctance to go as far as some Labor politicians want in scrapping with gambling ads is making MPs jittery. They sense the government is drifting to the end of its first term without an exciting agenda, writes Paul Sakkal.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rowland-in-the-deep-on-labor-s-big-gamble-20240819-p5k3ff.html
Workplace Relations Minister Murray Watt has dared the construction union to bring on a High Court challenge to new laws designed to place scandal-plagued unions into administration, declaring the bill robust enough to withstand a legal challenge.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/murray-watt-dares-cfmeu-to-take-ban-to-high-court-20240821-p5k44w.html
Meanwhile, Builders are trying to break the shackles of the CFMEU as it heads into administration by claiming back control of subcontractors, threatening a key source of power for the union on construction sites. At least six builders that have agreements with the union, including two big companies, are planning to remove CFMEU “vetoes” and other restrictions in their agreements that allow the union to influence which subcontractors are picked on job sites.
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/builders-move-to-take-on-wounded-cfmeu-20240821-p5k420
New housing developments up to 20 storeys high will be fast-tracked under a state government plan to deliver an extra 60,000 homes across 10 suburban activity centres including Camberwell, Chadstone, Niddrie and Ringwood by 2051. Annika Smethurst and Kieran Rooney report that planning rules for new townhouses and apartments up to six storeys will also be overhauled for areas within a 10-minute walk of the designated hubs to allow denser neighbourhoods close to shopping and transport.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-suburbs-to-get-towers-up-to-20-storey-in-fast-tracked-housing-plan-20240821-p5k48l.html
And Cara Waters tells us that ageing office buildings in Melbourne’s CBD could be converted into thousands of apartments under a new proposal by Lord Mayor Nick Reece.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/irresistible-for-developers-the-lord-mayor-s-plan-to-turn-offices-into-apartments-20240820-p5k3qr.html
The major parties have agreed in-principle to a new aged care funding model after the Albanese government accepted another demand from the Coalition to exempt people on home care waiting lists from the new user-pays fee structure. According to Phil Coorey, they will join existing nursing home residents who, under the original proposal, were already exempt from the new fee structure that will apply to all others entering the aged care system, including pensioners and self-funded retirees, not just the so-called “wealthy”.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/aged-care-wait-list-exemption-granted-as-parties-close-in-on-deal-20240821-p5k40l
Australia has always found a way to bring in people suffering in conflict zones – when it wants to. There are well-established procedures that have worked effectively for decades between the immigration authorities and ASIO to make it happen safely, explains Peter Hughes.
https://johnmenadue.com/australia-has-always-found-a-way-to-bring-in-people-from-conflict-zones/
The attorney general has approved legal assistance for Anthony Albanese and Bill Shorten in relation to defamation threats by a business associate of the former Liberal minister Stuart Robert. Paul Karp reveals that on 12 August Mark Dreyfus approved assistance “in relation to a defamation claim” made against the prime minister on 23 July and for defamation claims on 23 and 25 July against Shorten, the government services and national disability insurance scheme minister, according to documents tabled to parliament.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/22/albanese-given-taxpayer-funded-legal-help-after-defamation-threat-from-john-margerison
Domestic violence perpetrators should be tracked with the same forensic attention as suspected terrorists, said Australia’s domestic, family and sexual violence commissioner at the NPC yesterday. Natassia Chrysanthos breaks down what Cronin presented and commented on.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/target-domestic-violence-offenders-like-terrorists-commissioner-20240820-p5k3yr.html
Problems with insurance companies’ claims-handling, risks for investors from the boom in private markets and use of artificial intelligence by the financial sector will be among focus areas for the corporate watchdog over the coming year and beyond. Clancy Yeates reports that, amid a surge in premiums for car and home insurances and high numbers of customer complaints, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission has vowed to scrutinise the sector in its new corporate plan.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/watchdog-sets-sights-on-insurers-as-premiums-complaints-soar-20240821-p5k47c.html
The federal government has suspended research consultancy McNair yellowSquares from further work until an investigation is conducted into allegations it fabricated data on Indigenous communities during last year’s failed referendum process.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/22/mcnair-whistleblower-aec-data-fabrication-indigenous-voice-referendum-ntwnfb
A law enforcement theory developed in the U.S. that sees tougher penalties for minor offences could pave the way for reducing crime in Australia, writes Craig Hill.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/law-enforcement-reform-starts-with-tackling-minor-crimes,18893
Jessinta Burton takes us through yesterday’s court hearing in the Reynolds/Higgins case, particularly Samantha Maiden’s testimony.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/western-australia/she-s-drafting-a-plan-for-you-maiden-gives-evidence-on-breaking-higgins-story-20240821-p5k45k.html
Australia’s national broadband company is rising above financial challenges amid a growing demand for fibre connection, writes Paul Budde.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/nbn-co-rising-above-challenges-as-demand-for-fibre-grows,18892
Chris Minns and his government cannot claim credit for building the metro, but he should capitalise on it, writes Alexandra Smith who reckons ‘metro mania’ could derail the housing crisis.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/how-metro-mania-could-derail-the-housing-crisis-20240820-p5k3wd.html
Australia is braced for the prospect of a protectionist Donald Trump presidency, but a more immediate threat has emerged in the US, writes Peter Hartcher telling us that Trade Minister Don Farrell is meeting his US counterparts this week in an effort to head off trade actions against Australia’s beef and sheep exports in the remaining five months of the Biden presidency.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/don-t-target-australia-fears-of-biden-administration-trade-sanctions-20240821-p5k41c.html
Former City of Parramatta lord mayor and current state Labor MP Donna Davis became so personally involved in recruiting the council’s new chief executive officer that a high-ranking council executive reported the matter to the Independent Commission Against Corruption.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/former-lord-mayor-broke-protocol-in-ceo-negotiations-report-alleges-20240821-p5k439.html
“Kamala Harris’ fight for the White House is working better than Democrats dared hope. Michelle and Barack Obama have added their star power – can the dream run last?”, wonders Jennifer Hewett.
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/obamas-light-up-the-convention-and-the-campaign-20240821-p5k42v
Many fear that Trump will take power with guns. But his real weapon is the gavel, explains Maher Mughrabi.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/many-fear-trump-will-take-power-with-guns-but-his-real-weapon-is-the-gavel-20240820-p5k3tw.html
Some interesting stuff here from a new book about Queen Elizabeth and her candid thoughts about Trump!
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/life/entertainment/2024/08/21/donald-trump-rude-visit-queen-biography
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe







Matt Golding
Cathy Wilcox
Glen Le Lievre
Andrew Dyson
Spooner’s crusade continues . . .
From the US
RFK Jr. plans to end presidential run and endorse Donald Trump.rt
David Pope

Blog Intro
Labor’s national executive has taken over the party’s federal preselection process in Victoria at the behest of Anthony Albanese, invoking the disruption caused by the redistribution and its abolition of the Labor-held seat of Higgins.
_____________________
There’s always something isn’t there.
Labor preselections are becoming as rare as rocking horse shit.
Libs doing a deal on run away NDIS maybe they know it’s almost the only job growth in the economy and labor will have next to no job creation with it controlled.
Thanks BK. The NSW council election nominee bungle by the Liberal Party is the gift that keeps on giving. Now they have withdrawn from a Supreme Court challenge and turned to white anting their moderate leaders instead says the SMH. Not a good look for an already damaged Liberal brand in NSW. I’m starting to wonder if the Federal Liberal Party were always going to take over NSW preselections and this debacle gave them ‘ just cause’ ro do so.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. The story about Labor ministers getting legal aid is quite a beat-up. This was standard policy under the previous government and it as crickets from the media then.
‘PageBoi says:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 6:42 am
Trigger warning for BW
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2024/aug/21/everyone-loves-a-tiny-baby-stingray-looking-thing-is-the-maugean-skate-saved
It’s not just the skate of course which is being threatened by salmon farming, the entire harbour is being turned into an aquatic desert. But sure, 120 jobs is WAY more important than an entire ecosystem
The harbour has an average depth of only 15m, a narrow opening and very low tidal flows making it uniquely unsuited for intensive fish farming
Regardless of your views on the salmon industry in general, in the specific case of Macquarie Harbour it should be banned. That BW values a paltry 120 jobs (which can be relocated to a more suitable location, although probably not on the west coast of Tassie admittedly) more than the destruction of an entire ecosystem reflects poorly on his character’
===============================
I haven’t given my decision one way or another, actually.
And since the Green have added some considerations, let’s add some more.
It is always easier to destroy other people’s livelihoods. The economy of the remote town of Strachan would be shattered. The Greens currently have around half a million jobs in their sights. But that is merely an aside and it is clearly not one that is troubling any of Bludgers Greens posters. They do not give a rat’s arse about the deep misery of people losing their jobs in places where they will never be replaced.
Bandt did seem to show some sort of proletarian consciousness when addressing coal miners losing their livelihoods. His view? ‘The best job for a coal miner is another mining job.’
The brazen hypocrisy from a Party that never saw a mine it did not try to stop is breathtaking.
Under the EPBC Act the available decision is a choice between a fish species with 40-120 individuals on the one hand and 120 jobs and around $180 million a year. The in-between option is putting in place conditions that would mitigate any threatening processes.
The one big industry that the Greens are not threatening is the tourism industry which threatens far more species than salmon farming ever could. It is not the jobs that are at issue here… the Greens love to tour. It’s personal.
Oh. And I am 100% sure that no Greens in Australia ever eats salmon! Ever. Out of solidarity with the Maugean Skate.
Michaelia Cash and the Libs are having a go at the Teals (now, and at the next election) for supposedly betraying their electorate. Guess the Libs still don’t get why they lost the now-Teal electorates.
It’s right to praise bipartisanship as an example of a working parliament. However, parliament was also working when Labor worked with Greens Teals and other cross benchers to pass Labor’s promised climate legislation.
Australian had a constitutional crisis when we did not have a working parliament.
Graham Perrett has announced he’s retiring at the next election.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/21/labor-left-warrior-graham-perrett-to-retire-after-almost-20-years-in-federal-parliament
RFK might be able to help Trump with how to handle brain worms.
Slater and Gordon have filed a class action claim on behalf of WA Aboriginal tenants of remote community housing.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-22/wa-indigenous-public-housing-class-action-launched/104189272
BW
It’s not one fish species though is it, it’s the entire fucking harbour and everything in it……. But don’t let the substance of someone’s argument prevent you from going off on a rant or having a nice old cut n paste
[‘…“Labor has operated in the belief that most voters would not be able to bring themselves to make Dutton prime minister. Too scary, too negative, too strange. Once upon a time, they used to think that about Tony Abbott.”]
Carney’s spot on, clearly evidenced by polling of late. Labor needs to appoint a brace of mongrels to politically stalk Dutton, to highlight the fact that he makes Abbott look like a
dilettante and that he’s aping the divisive ideas of the GOP (once of course when the US election is decided). If Dutton’s not soon taken seriously, it will be too late for Labor to say it wasn’t warned. Albanese can do his bit too by not being so risk-averse, starting with banning or reducing gambling ads.
I guess it’s time for Graham Perrett in Moreton. Not a shining star, but a solid reliable vote winner for a long time. Should be a good tussle between Labor v Greens if the Muslim voters block vote for the Greens over the Palestinian issue but they would have to look past the pro gay marriage etc Greens platforms to do so. Moreton is the most multicultural seat in Qld says Perrett, which should help Labor. I’d be surprised if Moreton flipped Green, but Labor will lose some voters there now Perrett has retired.
Excellent.
The SRL with associated housing just has to be built.
“Jonny Howard you cannot vote for him”.
Remember that labor commercial before 96 election?
Not Dutton that is the issue it’s Labor itself .
It’s left vote under attack via Greens and soon to be Fatima’s mates pushing labor further left and costing it votes from the middle.Eg Rushed Gaza visas.
Elmer Fudd
There is an anti gay cohort in both Muslim and Jewish communities. I think that’s a wash despite the high profile attempt at a book ban in Sydney.
This LibLab duopoly govt refuses to acknowledge the voter drift to the conservative Teal and progressive Greens. Captured by their party donors and investments.
Will RFKjr get the ambassadorship to Slovenia? He may be able to bring stability to Central Europe by supporting an Hapsburg restoration.
(Only for fans of Succession)
Latest update on aggregate polling by MarktheBallot. Date 19-Aug-2024
Link: https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/
Comparison figures are from his previous aggregate on May 21, 2024.
• LNP 37.2% (up 0.8)
• ALP 31.4% (down 0.5)
• GRN 13.2% (down 0.5)
• Others 18.2% (up 0.2). Note no separate PHON primary.
This is where he calculates the parties are sitting, 2/3rds of the way through 2024.
His 2PP sits at 50.4% ALP, although he has another graph on the same page which suggests the ALP 2PP has now slipped below 50%, and sits at 49.8%. Scroll down to the 150 day-Regression tab on his link. The mathematicians on the site can assess which is more relevant but i’d go with the 50.4%.
In comparison;
• WB sits at 50.3% ALP as at 13-Aug
• KB sits at 50.5% ALP as at 19-Aug
‘PageBoi says:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 8:39 am
BW
It’s not one fish species though is it, it’s the entire fucking harbour and everything in it……. But don’t let the substance of someone’s argument prevent you from going off on a rant or having a nice old cut n paste’
————————
There is nothing like a frothing, quivering Greens substituting blustering, holier-than-thou righteous anger for reason.
The decision, at law, is about a species. The minister’s choice is clear. For 120 fish the minister could destroy 120 jobs and an industry worth around $180 million. That is a real world decision.
You, on the other hand, want to use the species wedge to shut down a system to protect a system. This is actually quite a common tactic by the Greens who want to shut whole industries down. Just like that.
There are good arguments for and against a systems approach, but it is a systems argument. That is not a species argument.
So. Let’s look at systems. We all know that the tourism system is generating enough CO2 emissions to render extinct numerous species. And that is before we even get started on the smashing impact of tourism activities on biodiversity. We all know that tourism is a massive employer that generates billions of contribution to our GDP.
Would you ban tourism on that basis? Would you shut down Australia’s livestock industries on that basis?
IMO, fish farming is just like land farming: it smashes biodiversity. Half of the world’s fish is now fish farmed. That proportion is growing because there is zero prospect for increasing sustainable wild-caught fish. Fish protein is often the only animal protein available to around half a billion of the world’s poorest people.
Practically all other food is farmed as well.
How do we tackle that? Species by species? The answer to that is that the species threatened lists are growing by leaps and bounds. Species coming off those lists are extremely rare… except when they are listed as extinct.
The other huge driver of those lists is expansion of the built environment. How are the Greens going with places to build a million houses which will not add to the already-huge extinction pressures on peri-urban species. No new house will be built in any threatened species habitat anywhere, ever? Because if that is the litmus test there will be close to no new housing built anywhere except within the limits of existing urban development. And even then there are questions to answer. Some threatened species do, from time to time, use urban habitats.
A species at a time? Or a systems driver at a time?
Good to see you back Nadia!
Even if the ALP 2PP is 49.8 nationally I’d suggest the teals would prevent the coalition from having the numbers to form government….. Labor minority looking increasingly likely though
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 9:18 am
Will RFKjr get the ambassadorship to Slovenia? He may be able to bring stability to Central Europe by supporting an Hapsburg restoration.
(Only for fans of Succession)’
———————
Haha.
Are you in line for something or other? Asking for a friend.
Thanks Page.
Yes, NT election coming up Sat night. I just can’t keep away from elections.
I’ve just got back from the NT after a week of travel. I can say the mood there is glum.
Per Mark the Ballot…He provides three seperate 2PP calculations. It’s a bit confusing for me, but it’s the numbers which count, not the process he goes through i suppose.
I’ll wait until the sites’ maths guru’s have had a look through it.
Interesting you say that. My son has the classic Hapsburg lip and I have long believed that I am descended from Austrian nobility- no doubt dispossessed by a palace intrigue.
Like Nath I am also no doubt descended from Edward III
OC
haha.
We have a bastard symbol on our family shield. There is always the Fitz consolation!
May have to start addressing you both with a Lord in front of it, Your Majesties.
Speaking of which, has Lordbain dropped off the site. Did William approve LSL for him as well
Nadia88,
“If two bodies exert force on each other, these forces have the same magnitude, but opposite directions”
Isaac Newton 50:50
Rex I read a Griffith University post 2022 election analysis paper that found 80% of voters were rusted on Labor or Coalition 20 years ago. Now they estimate its about 58 % in 2022. That’s a huge shift which increases the potential for one term goverments, minority governments becoming the norm and more people willing to flip from Labor or Coalition and back again next time if they can’t vote Green or Teal. The duopoly as you call it is shrinking, a fact noted in the 2022 election reports published by the Liberals who paid particular attention to the Teals and Greens taking seats from them. Their solution is pretty lame. Eg trying to find Teal HOR statements that they can turn against them in election mode. Read, twist what they actually said into something that will put off ex Liberal women voting Teal again. Labors head ache is the Greens . Neither of the duopoly as you call it have any idea really on how to deal with this trend in voter slippage. The mooted recommendations in their post election reports are pretty lame IMHO. I expect more cross bench reps in 2025 for the Teals and perhaps one more for the Greens. Good for democracy ? Well that’s a different debate.
Thanks Nadia. Interesting figures.
Nadia, good to see you!
I am still lurking, just going to take a break from commenting, as MI helped me realize that these forums are not designed for policy debate; its more like question time.
So alot less comments from me, but will be checking out comments such as yours and EF this morning.
Upcoming Polls:
* YouGov – is due, their last being 4 weeks ago. Usually a good sample around 1500 or so
* Monday – Morgan. Usually a good sample too
* Tuesday – Esssential. Not the best sample
That should be it for August.
We should start September with a Newspoll smack bang on the 1st.
Taylormade says:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 8:03 am
Blog Intro
Labor’s national executive has taken over the party’s federal preselection process in Victoria at the behest of Anthony Albanese, invoking the disruption caused by the redistribution and its abolition of the Labor-held seat of Higgins.
_____________________
There’s always something isn’t there.
Labor preselections are becoming as rare as rocking horse shit.
————————————
Taylormade , what do you call this
The federal court has ruled a former Victorian Liberal MP must travel from the UK to Australia to give evidence in a defamation trial brought against the state opposition leader.
Ousted Liberal MP Moira Deeming is suing John Pesutto over a series of media releases, press conferences and radio interviews he gave last year after a Let Women Speak rally during his push to expel her from the parliamentary party. The rally was gatecrashed by neo-Nazis and Deeming claims Pesutto characterised her a Nazi sympathiser or supporter.
Federal court justice David O’Callaghan says the application made by Pesutto’s lawyer is dismissed.
In the reasons for the judgement, O’Callaghan acknowledges that Dr Bach’s absence would cause some disruption to his work and family life:
But in the scheme of things, I do not give those matters significant weight—including because Dr Bach must have known in May when he swore his first affidavit that there was a likelihood that he would have to attend the trial in September in person.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/08/22/midweek-miscellany-morgan-poll-party-turmoil-and-preselections-latest-open-thread/#comment-4354371
Thanks for that summary.
So it would seem the minor parties/ independents will become more relevant federally too, cool.
Though it is early days for a major parties duopoly in minority gov in TAS, so not the ACT or federally (RGR).
Here’s to hoping the present Aus fed gov from 2022 has a big target strategy for the 2025 Australian Federal Election. May be even work out a progressive alliance. Definitely would prefer that to Noalition/ conservative Teals.
(Then again I don’t get the attraction of ‘Reichspotato’ any more than TDJT, be it up town, suburbs or even rust belt.)
It’s not like the risks/ threats aren’t well known. May be measuring what matters can be taken further (Quadruple bottom line and all that).
Be it opportunity, cost of living, education, environment, healthcare, human rights, infrastructure (Comms, energy, housing, transport, water, especially in regional and beyond), public safety and national security …
Glad to see you still lurking LB, and I know exactly what you mean.
Hopefully we’ll see you back for the election on Sat evening.
I think it will be close run election too, and given the amount of pre-polls already, we should have a result on the night. WB will confirm no doubt, but I’m sure the pre-polls get counted on the night. It’s the postals which take a while to count, but apparently this election the postal figure is down.
C@t and Lars are usually both up for an election too, so perhaps both may drop by for a few hours on Saturday if they are free. Not too sure where Lars is and I understand c@t is flat stick with her own election campaign, but anyway hopefully they may drop by Sat night.
Oakeshott Country says:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 9:34 am
Interesting you say that. My son has the classic Hapsburg lip and I have long believed that I am descended from Austrian nobility- no doubt dispossessed by a palace intrigue.
Like Nath I am also no doubt descended from Edward III
_________________
One might be descended from Edward III but Nath had a claim based upon evidence. I believe he was descended through the Beauforts, the Nevilles and then via a succession of small Lancastrian knights before misfortune struck in the 19th century forcing one progenitor to be assisted on a ship bound for the colonies.
Oh i certainly will be here on Saturday nadia; only William banning me can stop me on an election night 😉
And yeh, credit where its due, C@T has far more important things to focus on
What is C@t running for?
2022 federal election and the recent victorian state election showed, if the lib/nats are not getting the non lib/nats voters to swing to them , its more than not Labor majority government
Mostly Interested
Central Coast Council, in the outside chance third spot.
Having criticised AUKUS, I will compliment this recent initiative by Marles and Conroy. A factory to manufacture naval anti-ship missiles is being built in Newcastle with Norwegian firm Kongsberg.
https://www.newcastleherald.com.au/story/8737336/australian-government-kongsberg-to-build-strike-missile-factory/
Kongsberg make the navies new standard anti-ship missile (the NSM) and its air-launched equivalent (JSM). They are also developing a supersonic strike missile (3SM) and already make an air defence system (NASAM) which has proven effective in Ukraine. If the Newcastle plant can learn how to build missiles to their standards, we could become much more self-sufficient building the others as well.
The Liberals talked about a “sovereign missile capability” for five years but never did anything.
Well good luck C@t
VCT Et3e, and others.
You may be interested in these figures from Ipsos, to bookmark. They pretty much confirm what you and many others comment on.
They produce a monthly report known as the Ipsos Issues Monitor.
Link: https://www.ipsos.com/en-au/issuesmonitor#2022
They don’t release primaries anymore (they stopped after the 2019 election). I actually sent them an email earlier this year because their meth statement indicated they asked for primaries, but a staff member got back saying no primaries to be released in the forseable future.
Gosh, I’m such a poll nerd, but anyway I wanted to know for sure.
Anyway, a bit of a read for those interested.
Oakeshott Country @ #28 Thursday, August 22nd, 2024 – 9:34 am
Hah, thats nothing!. Through extensive research I was able to track our family tree to a Roman Centurion. I’m surprised it was documented, but during a deployment in Judaea he had a child with a Mandy Cohen. The story goes that he used a fake name with Mandy. That progeny was a male who it turns out was crucified but before that he had a child with a Judith, last name lost in the mists of time.
Now I’m not bragging here, but it seems that the son of the Roman Centurion was one of the lesser prophets of god. So I’m pretty sure there was a book written about my family tree by Dan Brown.
‘Elmer Fudd says:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 9:55 am
Rex I read a Griffith University post 2022 election analysis paper that found 80% of voters were rusted on Labor or Coalition 20 years ago. Now they estimate its about 58 % in 2022. That’s a huge shift which increases the potential for one term goverments, minority governments becoming the norm and more people willing to flip from Labor or Coalition and back again next time if they can’t vote Green or Teal. The duopoly as you call it is shrinking, a fact noted in the 2022 election reports published by the Liberals who paid particular attention to the Teals and Greens taking seats from them. Their solution is pretty lame. Eg trying to find Teal HOR statements that they can turn against them in election mode. Read, twist what they actually said into something that will put off ex Liberal women voting Teal again. Labors head ache is the Greens . Neither of the duopoly as you call it have any idea really on how to deal with this trend in voter slippage. The mooted recommendations in their post election reports are pretty lame IMHO. I expect more cross bench reps in 2025 for the Teals and perhaps one more for the Greens. Good for democracy ? Well that’s a different debate.’
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Thanks. Good discussion, IMO.
There is no duopoly and there has not been for some time. That is in the eye of the sort of small beer extremists who think that Labor’s real world implementation of 43/30 is the same as the Liberals’ nuclear promise. Chalk and cheese.
Various democracies are finding governance an increasing problem as the extremes become more virulent, less tolerant, less willing to compromise, and further apart – policy wise.
A power distribution disjunct between House and Senate has already played out at times with less than beneficial outcomes as is currently the case. The core problem is that negotiations have a delay nexus. The less powerful negotiator has just one ace up the sleeve: delay. The outcome can be marginal changes at the cost of a substantive six month delay. The people who suffer can just suffer for an extra six months.
We are not all that far from having far right BOP in the Senate and a far left BOP in the House. That would, IMO, lead to stasis and/or slow reactions and/or to some very weird policy compromises. Like when Harradine tied one of his votes to a ban on Australian foreign aid going to reproductive services such as birth control.
Hi Nadia88. I am not a mathematician so take this with a cellar full of salt, but the different polling aggregated models broadly come down to how the aggregators treat two key issues. Most modellers are adjusting for the pollster ‘house’ effect or quality. The second is how one weights more recent results more than less recent results. Mark the Ballot is also playing around with different methods for drawing the trend line. I think Mark is the only one of the three you mentioned (WB, KB and Mark) playing around with a Bayesian approach, but happy to be corrected. The good news is that there is a lot of agreement at present.