The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 50.5-49.5, after a 50-50 result last time, from primary votes of Labor 30.5% (up one), Coalition 38.5% (up half), Greens 13.5% (down half) and One Nation 4% (down one). The pollster’s previous election preferences measure of two-party preferred has Labor’s lead unchanged at 51-49. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1698. Also of note on the polling front are further figures from the weekend’s Freshwater Strategy poll showing 50% support for a blanket ban on sports betting advertising, with 29% opposed. It also found 70% support for the actual government policy of a limit of two ads per hour up to 10pm with 16% opposed, the former figure presumably including many who feels it does not go far enough.
Federal preselection news:
• Labor’s national executive has taken over the party’s federal preselection process in Victoria at the behest of Anthony Albanese, invoking the disruption caused by the redistribution and its abolition of the Labor-held seat of Higgins. Among other things, this seems likely to ensure the Socialist Left-backed Basem Abdo succeeds the retiring Maria Vamvakinou in Calwell, which had been the source of some discontent in local branches. There are also reports that the federal branch of the Liberal Party is preparing to take over the affairs of its New South Wales branch after the sacking of state director Richard Shields in the wake of the council elections fiasco.
• Both the Liberals and the Nationals have candidates in place for the new seat of Bullwinkel on Perth’s eastern fringe, with army veteran and former journalist Matt Moran winning a Liberal preselection vote on the weekend ahead of Holly Ludeman, veterinarian and activist against a ban on live sheep exports, and lawyer Jonathan Crabtree. Former state party leader Mia Davies has been confirmed as the Nationals candidate. The West Australian today reports that a poll of 800 respondents in the electorate showing the Nationals polling well clear of the Liberals, although the more remarkable fact of the poll is that it has Labor leading 52-48, suggesting next to no swing from 2022. The primary votes quoted are Labor 22%, Nationals 20%, Liberal 12%, Greens 10% and independents 10%, with 23% undecided.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports five candidates for Liberal preselection in the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of Gavin Pearce. The two identified as front-runners are Belle Binder, a “young entrepreneur who has pioneered an innovative farm labour scheme”, and Latrobe deputy mayor Vonette Mead, with speculation the latter will withdraw amid strong backing for Binder from senior party figures. The report notes Senator Anne Urquhart and state MP Anita Dow have been identified as potential Labor candidates, but that the seat will only be reckoned an attractive prospect for Labor if federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek “sides with local industries in imminent decisions over a mine tailings dam at Rosebery and salmon farming in Macquarie Harbour”.
• Thomas Kelsall of InDaily reports Zane Basic, factional conservative former staffer to federal MP Nicolle Flint and current staffer to Queensland MP Bert van Manen, has won Liberal preselection to take on independent Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo. Basic won a party ballot ahead of Adelaide councillor Henry Davis.
• The Greens have endorsed Remah Naji, social worker and organiser of Justice for Palestine, as its candidate for the Brisbane seat of Moreton>. It remains unclear if Labor member Graham Perrett will seek re-election or make way for state secretary Julie-Ann Campbell, which would resolve an issue faced by the state branch in meeting its affirmative action quota.
Long time since I read that crap but doesn’t that also make you a claimant for the long overdue Stuart restoration? Provided the Opus Dei don’t get you first
Boerwar. What is your reasoning for a “far right BOP” in the senate, coming soon.
Is it the 2016 Senate voting changes which you believe benefits the right in the longer term, or are you keeping an eye on the PHON vote (per bludgertrack), which keeps ticking up.
The next half senate election will see the 2019 Senators up for re-election.
As that was a good year for the “right”, most likely we will see Labor elect another Senator from QLD this time around, and quite possibly if W.A. votes the same way they did in 2022, we should have another Labor Senator from W.A. as well.
Without contradicting you, I can see Labor picking up 2 Senators on current polling, provided all other things remain the same, with Pocock re-elected too and a one-all split in the NT. It should be a fairly strong leftish Senate when the Senate changes over on Jul-1-2025.
Interested in your reasoning.
Teals at risk in Goldstein, Kooyong, Mackellar and Curtin
The Saturday Paper
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au › 2024/08/03 › te…
3 Aug 2024 — Polling shows at least four teal independents are at risk of losing at the next election, as the government prepares donation reforms that …
Libs consolidating vote heading for victory.
UK Cartoons and other miscellany
Morten Morland #RachelReeves
Patrick Blower. #YvetteCooper
Dave Brown
Chapette
Matt
Nicola Jennings
Christian Adams
Wayno
Mark Parisi
Ellis Rosen
==========================================
Stolen from the internet
“Impressed with the border officials for dressing up like that”
pied pipersays:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 11:21 am
Teals at risk in Goldstein, Kooyong, Mackellar and Curtin
The Saturday Paper
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au › 2024/08/03 › te…
3 Aug 2024 — Polling shows at least four teal independents are at risk of losing at the next election, as the government prepares donation reforms that …
Libs consolidating vote heading for victory.
Click to Edit –
This one is very clever, and accurate.
‘nadia88 says:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 11:18 am
Boerwar. What is your reasoning for a “far right BOP” in the senate, coming soon.
…’
—————
That depends on your definition of ‘soon’. Rightwards trends in polling since the last election is plus 4.3%. That is, IMO, quite quick in the scheme of things.
One of the needs of both the Coalition and the Greens is to ‘demonstrate’ that the Government is not doing its job. Thus we get the inevitable delays, blockages and associated stunting and shouting. This is being complemented quite effectively by generating the impression that parliamentary behaviour is bad and dysfunctional. We can add the Teals to the squeals in that space. Finally, there is a largely hostile MSM which is quite keen to bootstrap and bullshit its support for the forces of darkness.
Low information right-prone voters are getting the message and the vibe: plus 4.3% of them.
BW
If we accept your arguments Labor should be Whitlam bold and use the power before it’s gone.
Before Labor has fully announced its Aged Care reforms Newscorp is labelling it a death tax.
Article in the Herald Sun for those that have access
‘Scott 1 says:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 11:47 am
BW
If we accept your arguments Labor should be Whitlam bold and use the power before it’s gone.’
———————
Between them Dutton and Bandt would have delayed or blocked every single one of Whitlam’s reforms. In the end they destroyed Whitlam.
BW
Ha I disagree with you on that hypothetical.
I highly doubt WA will vote the same way again. I am expecting a return to normal service – 3 LNP , 2 ALP, 1 Greens. Therefore no impact on Senate makeup.
In 2028, all things being equal, I expect the LNP to gain a Senate Vote by taking back the unusual ALP/Now Independent seat.
“3 Aug 2024 — Polling shows at least four teal independents are at risk of losing at the next election, as the government prepares donation reforms that …
Libs consolidating vote heading for victory.”
@pied piper
Yeah there was also published polling that had Liberals leading in Hasluck 55 – 45 at the last federal election too.
He did that himself.
The surge in population growth that was sparked by the reopening of the international borders in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic is starting to ease.
From a peak net annual inflow of 528,000 people in 2022-23, net migration fell to 395,000 in 2023-24 and is projected to be just 260,000 in 2024-25, 255,000 in 2025-26 and then 235,000 per annum after that.
The return to an annual intake of 235,000 people is lower growth than generally prevailed prior to the pandemic and reflects the government’s acknowledgement of better targeting a broadly appropriate level of migration. But after the extraordinary surge, net migration is settling back to a pace that is not too hot, not too cold but just right.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/immigration-inches-towards-goldilocks-zone-and-could-ease-aussie-housing-crisis-030839717.html?tsrc=twtr
That polling from 3-Aug is pretty old now. 3 weeks ago.
Thanks Boer & Fubar.
OK, well then most likely the ALP will collect an extra Senator in QLD which would correct the 2019 anomaly. W.A. most likely remains the same. ie: 3-2-1
Boerwar @ #59 Thursday, August 22nd, 2024 – 11:52 am
That’s just weird.
What a bloody waste of time: modeling a future that is already happening.
Bird flu is already killing Antarctic vertebrates. Each tourist visit costs, according to scientists, something like 75 tons of snow by way of CO2 emissions. Vascular plants are already responding significantly…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/22/antarctica-ice-buffers-melt-study-rubbish-disease
For P1’s benefit, the ‘they’ in the last sentence refers to Fraser’s mob… the spiritual progenitor of today’s wreckers.
What IS weird is the way in which Bandt is acting as a cats paw for Dutton. Bandt is not half as smart as he thinks he is.
I think what Boerwar meant is that the blocking of legislation in the 1974-75 Parliament, including supply, is what destroyed Whitlam. Clearly Bandt & Dutton had nothing to do with Whitlam.
What follows from that is that if the Senate does end up in the hands of a “right wing outfit”, then they could destroy a future Labor gov’t, which is what Boer has been alluding to these past few months. The senate still retains the power to block supply, which of course is a very nasty weapon to hold against any government.
I know there are people who are salivating at the prospect of a far left BOP in the Senate AND a far left BOP in the House.
What difference would that make in practice?
The BOP in the Senate has already demonstrated time and again that they are Dutton’s dupes when it comes to creating mayhem, delays and blockages. The House could then add to chaos, of course. So there is that.
Boerwar says:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 12:11 pm
The article mentions the recent “low” amounts of sea ice. Strange that they failed to mention that not so long ago there were record levels of sea ice – and we were being told that that was due to global warming – but now there are lows – so it is definitely global warming. They just interpret everything to be global warming. There’s no science to it. Just make up some assumptions. Build a computer model that tells you what you want to hear and yay! Global Warming!!!
FUBAR
It is not strictly necessary for you to be a complete idiot in the cryosphere climate space in order to establish yourself as a leading light among the Coalition’s climate science gurus.
So why do it?
Boerwar
These days Xanthippe and I both minimise flying to minimise our environmental impacts.
We would have loved to do an Antarctic cruise, but decided a few years ago that it was impossible to justify the harm it caused for the sake of a tour trip.
I’d prefer to see the Senate gone and Governments allowed to govern.
It is a massive gerrymander for the smaller States and Territories.
It has never voted along State lines, always political.
Queensland and NZ survive without houses of review.
Imagine all the dipshits we wouldn’t have to be beholden too.
Nadia
Thanks. I think BW is wrong on that too. Just take Bandt’s public statements on supporting Labor if the Greens had the balance of power at face value as an example about the Greens.
That leaves dealing with a hostile Senate where Labor and Greens are on the same side. So to state the obvious I disagree with BW’s numerous even accepting his polling argument.
‘Socrates says:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 12:20 pm
Boerwar
These days Xanthippe and I both minimise flying to minimise our environmental impacts.
We would have loved to do an Antarctic cruise, but decided a few years ago that it was impossible to justify the harm it caused for the sake of a tour trip.’
—————————-
Thanks. Ditto. I wanted especially to see the deep translucent greens that icebergs get at some angles. I can tell you that when I raise this issue with my wealthy environmentalist friends they invariably want to change the topic.
The wreckage of Belgian governance is well known.
The Dutch now spend a significant amount of their four year terms negotiating a government. And what do they get? Wilders.
The power of tiny minorities with BOP is on almost daily view when looking at the Netanyahu Government.
It is beyond rational debate that Australia’s governance is far from optimum. The peeps benefiting from wreckage of governance are determined so to do. They can. And they are.
Boerwar says:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 12:11 pm
Two questions:
Do you believe humans should have zero impact on the planet?
Do you believe that the only reason “Bird Flu” has reached Antarctica is because of humans? (Sub-question – is it not a natural thing for viruses to spread in populations)
I would love to travel to Antarctica one day. I also believe that we have the capability and should do everything we can to minimise our pollution impact from our visits – take only pictures and leave only foot prints – it’s not really that difficult to do.
The article you linked to was looking at marine pollution from Australia and NZ – probably the least responsible for marine pollution, with most coming out of the developing world major rivers like the Mekong and Amazon.
@pied piper – unsighted polling that certain Teals are “at risk”, with some slight details given later in the article saying they are basically polling where they were at the last election, maybe Monique Ryan is only slightly ahead – which makes sense given her electorate was redistributed, reducing her margin and requiring her to campaign in the new area of her seat that doesn’t know her yet.
Please. To go from that to the Liberals unseating the Teals reeks of desperation.
I notice you made no reference to the other unsighted polling in the article about teals having a shot at Liberal seats like Wannon and Bradfield where they got close last time…
Agreed Nadia and Scott 1; unless Federal Labor is prepared to pull a Tasmania (which even on my most pessimist days I can’t see happening) the supposed far right far left fracturing won’t happen.
Also a succinct point from the morning round up about people disregarding dutton sounding exactly like those who thought Abbott would never win. Or sco mo.
Arky says:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 12:30 pm
I am happy to bet $200 that the Liberals will win Curtin back.
You’ve got 24 hours to accept.
‘FUBAR says:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 12:30 pm
Boerwar says:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 12:11 pm
Two questions:
Do you believe humans should have zero impact on the planet?
Do you believe that the only reason “Bird Flu” has reached Antarctica is because of humans? (Sub-question – is it not a natural thing for viruses to spread in populations)
I would love to travel to Antarctica one day. I also believe that we have the capability and should do everything we can to minimise our pollution impact from our visits – take only pictures and leave only foot prints – it’s not really that difficult to do.
The article you linked to was looking at marine pollution from Australia and NZ – probably the least responsible for marine pollution, with most coming out of the developing world major rivers like the Mekong and Amazon.’
————————
Global warming has only just started wrecking the joint and it is going to get really, truly bad. From a public policy perspective, that is all we really need to know.
I have long since given up on idiots who want to argue the science of global warming based on one or two incidences in one or two indicators and/or who base their climate science structure on what some half-arsed science reporter has reported in an MSM rag.
Do us all a favour and get at your Coalition mates and try to convince not to be so destructive of climate action.
Given that power lust rules, you would be wasting your breath.
@FUBAR – “I’d prefer to see the Senate gone and Governments allowed to govern.”
Tempting as it can be, I do think that the Senate helps ensure that voters for minor parties (even One Nation, not just the Greens) are actually represented in the system and that’s important for democracy no matter how aggravating it is for the party forming government and even if sometimes the system lets total randos get a spot.
The States are an anachronism from colonial times. Decolonisation should occur through the States and Territories being disbanded, along with their Parliaments and Local Government. We should only have two tiers of Government – regional and Federal.
Beyond a shadow of a doubt there has been a very strong rightwards drift in Australian polling since the last election: plus 4.3% for the Coalition plus PHON.
Those who argue that this is because the Labor Government has not implemented extreme left Greens policies might like to look at the underpinning dynamics.
The real logic is obvious. Had the Labor Government done so the surge to the right would have been magnified.
We should also get rid of byelections. If a member of the House of Reps dies or resigns, their party should be able to nominate a replacement – like in the Senate. And if a member decides to leave their party then they should leave Parliament and the party that won the seat makes a replacement.
@FUBAR – I don’t have any knowledge on the ground about WA. I’d take that bet on Zoe Daniel though (or Spender or Stegall) and only skip Ryan because of the redistribution and Scamps because there’s still a bunfight going on about the redistribution resulting from the abolition of North Sydney and who knows how that will end.
Arky says:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 12:37 pm
Everyone gets to have a say through the preferential voting system.
It’s very funny that Ms Chaney is now in support of the Live Export Sheep trade, where as not so long ago she was agin it.
I wonder what the boss, Holmes A’Court, has to say about that?
Who said these Teals aren’t normal politicians?
Arky says:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 12:42 pm
You’re not on your own – no one wants to take my money off me for some reason, but they’re all absolutely confident that there is no way Dutton is going to win any Teal seats back.
>We should also get rid of byelections. If a member of the House of Reps dies or resigns, their party should be able to nominate a replacement – like in the Senate. And if a member decides to leave their party then they should leave Parliament and the party that won the seat makes a replacement.
So if the party drifts from where they were elected should they be able to kick the member out of parliment and put someone more suited to their new view?
>Global warming has only just started wrecking the joint and it is going to get really, truly bad. From a public policy perspective, that is all we really need to know.
So do you agree with the view “No new fossil fuel projects” or should they be allowed to go ahead?
Labor only path to victory is to win the Greens Single Mums vote.
That’s the only reason for female quotas in the ALP.
Perrett has been made to walk the plank for quotas, yet he’s held Moreton 17 years and turned it from strong Liberal to safe Labor?
=====================================
So, the situation is Labor can barely fool some of the people some of the time.
Letting in an Au Pair who has selected the wrong visa by accident, who is absolutely no risk of overstaying or demanding refugee status – very very bad.
Letting in thousands of others on tourist visas when they aren’t really tourists, with the full expectation they will overstay the tourist visa and claim asylum – Fine!
Australia will begin producing long-range strike missiles within three years as part of an $850 million plan to make the nation less dependent on importing military equipment from overseas.
Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy announced on Thursday that the federal government will partner with Norwegian defence giant Kongsberg to manufacture modern naval strike missiles and joint strike missiles with a range over 275 kilometres near Newcastle in the NSW Hunter Valley.
The munitions factory at the Newcastle airport precinct – which is scheduled to open in 2026 and begin manufacturing missiles in 2027 – will be the first of its kind outside Norway.
The project is expected to create 500 jobs in the Hunter Valley and open up opportunities for Australian-made missiles to be exported overseas once the nation has built up a domestic stockpile.
Conroy described the initiative as a “no-brainer that makes Australia safer and creates jobs in Australia”. “This investment is about keeping Australians safe in an uncertain global environment, creating local jobs and supporting a future made in Australia,” he said.
https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/media-releases/2024-08-22/albanese-government-investment-boost-long-range-strike-adf-and-deliver-jobs-hunter-region
No. That’s a completely different situation. Good question.
Teals got elected on the perception thar some Liberal MPs were cads and bounders.
Now they’re trying to whip the hysteria up again.
It won’t work twice, imo, scolding has a limited shelf life.
My quick reading of a few seats…
Kooyong – LNP pick up for two reasons. The Libs still topped the primaries last time, and they have now added the strong Lib voting area from Tooronga/Toorak into Kooyong. I think Kooyong may eventually go Green, but not this cycle.
Macnamara – ALP retain. There was some interesting polling about this seat from Redbridge.
Link here: https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/RedBridge-report-Macnamara-seat-poll-June-2024.pdf
For the Greens to win Mac, they really need Labor to fall to third, which I can’t see happenning.
Wills – Green pick up
Cooper (ex Batman) – Very very possible Greens pick up.
The Greens hold the equivalent state seat of Brunswick with a 44% primary. One of the Socialist aligned parties, nearly beat the Libs into 3rd place, and the socialists preference to the Greens fairly strongly. The northern part of the Federal division is very solid Labor, but I just don’t know for sure whether there is a significant Muslim vote north of Bell Street. I’ll have a bit of a think about this seat.
Fowler – ALP pickup (unless there is a sizeable Muslim vote, which preferences her above Labor). I’d be pretty confident that this will revert to the ALP now that KK has gone away.
Curtin – LNP pickup…but only because Fubar is placing bets there. I think she’ll lose though
Moreton – With the announcement today of Perrett’s resignation I think this could be in play. Once again though, for the Greens to win it would really need Labor to slip to third on the primaries. Redbridge may do a seat poll on this seat soon given Perrett’s move, so I suppose we’ll see. I’d say Labor will retain it. The anti-Labor feel in QLD atm will subside after Oct-26
What I find somewhat surprising is that Labor is within months of calling an election, and, for the majority of their time in office, they have lead in the polls – albeit with a more slender margin.
My expectation was that Labor would be behind say 52-48 at this point in the election cycle, based on previous polls at this time.
I sense the dynamics have changed
Grumpy voters are not transferring there vote from Labor to Liberal by and large. These voters seemed to have parked their intentions in a variety of ways and places from Greens, to Teals to Other.
If I was Mrs Dutton (wherever she hides) I would not be looking to change the curtains in the Lodge just yet
And FUBAR with his constant egging others to bet on our local WA Teal has no better idea than anyone else of how that seat will go.
My reading of the local rag in that area shows she has a high profile, she seems generally well regarded and the Liberal candidate is all but invisible. I have noted before a number of my Labor voting friends are already planning to help keep the Liberals out of this electorate by working for the sitting member Chaney.
Her pedigree outguns any johnny-come-lately Liberal hack putting up in the electorate.
FUBAR @ #74 Thursday, August 22nd, 2024 – 12:21 pm
The Senate always votes along state lines, just not in the limited way you have defined it. In case you hadn’t picked this up not all states vote for the same political parties. In Qld there is PHON, in Tasmania JLN, SA had it’s own version until just recently, the other states have different mixes. Those are representations of the state’s citizens voting preferences.