Nine Newspapers reports the monthly federal poll from Resolve Strategic gives the Coalition its best result for the term, with its primary vote up two points to 38% while the Labor remains stuck at 28%, the Greens are down one to 13% and One Nation is steady at 6%. A two-party preferred calculation based on preference flows from 2022 produces something close to a dead heat. The poll also records Peter Dutton retaining the one-point lead on preferred prime minister that he attained for the first time in last month’s poll, now at 35-34 from 36-35 last time. Albanese’s combined very good and good performance rating tumbles five points to 32% with very poor and poor up three to 54%, while Dutton is respectively down three to 39% and steady on 40%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1603.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has a better result for Labor than last time, putting them ahead 50.5-49.5 on two-party preferred (UPDATE: I have this the wrong way round – it’s the Coalition leading 50.5-49.5)) compared with a 51.5-48.5 Coalition lead last time. This is based on respondent-allocated preferences, the pollster’s calculation based on preference flows at the 2022 election putting Labor ahead 51.5-48.5. The primary votes have the Coalition down two points to 37.5%, Labor up two-and-a-half to 31%, the Greens down one to 12.5% and One Nation steady at 5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1758.
The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll focuses on attitudes towards Australian democracy, with 37% reporting satisfaction, up five from March, 30% dissatisfaction, down one, and 33% neither, up one. Voting intention results from the poll will be along later today.
UPDATE: Voting intention from the Essential Research poll has Labor at 29% (down one), the Coalition at 33% (steady), the Greens at 13% (up one), One Nation at 8% (steady), the United Australia Party at 3% (up two) and others at 14% (down two), with the balance undecided. On the 2PP+ measure, the Coalition’s lead is out from 47-46 to 48-46.
Badthinker
Swap the word Socialist for Liberal then that sentence would be true.
Taylormade @ #2249 Saturday, July 20th, 2024 – 7:20 pm
I agree. And isn’t it completely ridiculous that a Harris comment from a few years ago that we didn’t just fall out of a coconut tree, but exist in the context in which we live ends up in national polling? Just crazy, but it has happened.
Hmmm, I reckon centrist, shit lite is for people that can’t do the math, right of centre, full of shit is for those that just don’t care, except for themselves.
So here’s to more minor parties and independents!
The Rusties:
We’re the Centrists and you’re the Fascists!!
Have a think about it, what else could they say?
Give us all your money so we can give it to the Poor People?
They tried that with The Voice, 60% didn’t believe it.
@Confessions at 7:29pm
That sentence reminded me instantly of this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqTpHhaKtL8
bc
Thanks for posting this. I remember how hard it was for the Obama administration to shepherd “Obama-Care” through Congress and Senate.
It is always easy in hindsight to say “We could have asked for more”.
But as someone who has worked all over the US, albeit for short time periods at a time, I think it is it is very hard to get the very disparate parts of the US to agree on anything. And no matter where you go, there are “black” areas and “white” areas. And in the south and west “hispanic” areas add to the mix. And then of course in the north east, there are the traditional pilgrim communities. And everywhere, Amish, Mennonites and Mormons as just a small example of the religious differences.
Additionally, the “incuriousness” of so many in the US people that I have worked with has always been striking to me. Not my research collaborators, who are just like us, but being involved in public astronomy and working with “middle-school” teachers was an eye-opener. Asking which train line to use to get to Chicago airport got me “I’ll drive you, because you will not know the black lines from the white lines”. When I asked what they meant, and I really had to ask (because how weird is that) , it was “Well we just knew, growing up, which were the white lines”.
I could tell you at least 50 anecdotes like this in different regions, from my time in the US.
This sort of difference between people of different backgrounds is just unimaginable in Australia.
And, I am still gobsmacked by the number of times a taxi driver – they ask a lot of questions in the US – when I say I come from Australia, has started off with “Oh, they have socialised medicine there”.
‘Mavis says:
Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 2:42 pm
I’m sure this won’t result in a pre-emptive strike – then again:
[‘US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday said that Iran’s breakout time – the amount of time needed to produce enough weapons grade material for a nuclear weapon – “is now probably one or two weeks” as Tehran has continued to develop its nuclear program.
The assessment marks the shortest breakout time that US officials have ever referenced and comes as Iran has taken steps in recent months to boost its production of fissile material.
“Where we are now is not in a good place,” the top US diplomat said at the Aspen Security Forum Friday.
“Iran, because the nuclear agreement was thrown out, instead of being at least a year away from having the breakout capacity of producing fissile material for a nuclear weapon, is now probably one or two weeks away from doing that,” he said.
“They haven’t produced a weapon itself, but that’s something of course that we track very, very carefully,” Blinken added.
Blinken said the policy of the US is to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and that the administration would prefer to stop that from happening through diplomacy.
Over a year ago a top US Defense Department official said that Iran could now produce “one bomb’s worth of fissile material” in “about 12 days.”
The Biden administration engaged in more than a year of indirect negotiations with Iran aimed at reviving the Iran nuclear deal, from which the US withdrew in 2018 under the Trump administration.
Those efforts collapsed in late 2022, as the US accused Iran of making “unreasonable” demands related to a probe by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a UN nuclear watchdog, into unexplained traces of uranium found at undisclosed Iranian sites. In the months that followed, the administration maintained that the Iran nuclear deal was “not on the agenda.”]
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/19/politics/blinken-nuclear-weapon-breakout-time/index.html‘
—————-
I trust I am not breaching William’s request here. If so, mea culpa and please delete.
My view is that Blinkin is probably grossly inaccurate here. My rationale is this. A couple of months ago there was an opportunity for Israel to launch a very, very heavy aerial attack targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities. It did not do so. If there is one country that would know exactly where Iran sits with respect to the ‘break-out’ time it is Israel.
Confessions
I genuinely feel sorry for the 8% of America that don’t believe that statement, the fact that they exist genuinely made me laugh.
Also agree with the statements about the positive debate today, thanks D&M.
@Douglas and Milko at 7:39pm
There’s also the fact that in reality, Obama only had a window of a few months where the Democrats had a supermajority in the Senate of 60-40, namely when Al Franken was finally confirmed as elected Senator for Minnesota and when Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts died, was initially replaced by Paul Kirk and was then defeated by Scott Brown.
Plus there was Joe Lieberman of Connecticut that was very much the Joe Manchin of that time that happily chopped and hacked off the better parts of what became of Obamacare.
Nader, Corbyn, Brown, Milne, Di Natale, Bandt all have five things in common.
The first is that they are extremists.
The second is that they failed to attain government.
The third is that they enabled extended reactionary rule.
The fourth is that they have delivered, if at all, at the tiny margins.
The fifth is that their noise is in inverse proportion to what they deliver.
There’s a level of unreality about the whole thing, I agree.
confessions
I note that the GOP were the most likely partisans to agree with Harris’ proposition….
”
which the US withdrew in 2018 under the Trump administration.
Those efforts collapsed in late 2022, as the US accused Iran of making “unreasonable” demands related to a probe by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a UN nuclear watchdog, into unexplained traces of uranium found at undisclosed Iranian sites. In the months that followed, the administration maintained that the Iran nuclear deal was “not on the agenda.”]
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/19/politics/blinken-nuclear-weapon-breakout-time/index.html
”
Mavis
Another BidenBiden foreign policy(if it happens) failure in addition to Afghanistan, Ukraine, Red sea ship passage and Gaza.
‘Confessions says:
Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 7:51 pm
I genuinely feel sorry for the 8% of America that don’t believe that statement, the fact that they exist genuinely made me laugh.
There’s a level of unreality about the whole thing, I agree.’
—————-
Just re-reading Derrida to make absolutely sure that they are not actually right. IMO, it is line ball.
Perhaps they all have the surname of Schrodinger.
Boerwar @ #2262 Saturday, July 20th, 2024 – 7:51 pm
Yeah they likely didn’t get the coconut tree thing much less link it to Harris. Otherwise I’ve no doubt the question would’ve split among partisan lines.
Badthinker bulltwang
No one who lived the Hawke/Keating disaster believes that.
Those fuckers put the handbrake on wages for 13 years, by the time they left it took 2 wage earners to afford one house.
No, they weren’t Centrists. They were Socialist Governments, they took what little the poor had and gave it to their rich mates.
Medicare
Superannuation
The Accord
World Heritage and stopping Franklin Dam
Outlawing sexual discrimination in workplace (Badthinker still sore about this one)
Dumping God Save the Queen as national anthem
Floating the $A
I see that Ven is accepting the Duttonite/Trump framing of history.
The problem for any US POTUS is that US is no longer omnipotent.
The US can no longer police the world’s sea lanes.
This function, vital to maritime trade, was delivered by the USN for something like three quarters of a century since WW2.
They just can’t do it anymore.
Even the suppression of the Somali pirates requires multi-nation contribution. China and India, which probably have most to lose from the Indian Ocean trade routes, are to the fore here.
Short of initiating a full scale land invasion of Yemen, or the judicious use of nuclear weapons, NO US president would have the military wherewithal to completely shut down Houthi missile and drone attacks on merchantman. Biden can’t do it. Neither would Trump.Neither can Netanyahu. A recent attack launched by the Houthis from Yemen killed an Israeli in Tel Aviv. Take a look at the map to see what that entailed.
Those trade-exposed countries, including Australia, whose limited naval investments have ridden off the coat tails of US naval investment may now like to reconsider their contribution to making world maritime trading routes safe again. Doubtless the Greens would have us believe that this can be done with kayaks waving protest flags off Aden. Good luck with that.
Biden did something that no US president has been able to do for 20 years: get the US out of Afghanistan. For all his bluster, Trump did not get the US out of Afghanistan.
Sure, the exit was messy as the total and rapid collapse of the twenty year multi trillion dollar investment in the Afghanistan Army and Afghanistan Government demonstrated the utter failure of all previous US presidents (and Australian prime ministers – including Howard, Rudd, Gillard, Rudd, Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison (with the cack handed help of Dutton).
Biden’s crowning achievement is that the US is for the first time in over two decades, not involved in a losing land war anywhere. Quite an achievement, IMO.
As for Ukraine, whatever the ethics of the situation, the US’ primary strategic interest is in the Pacific. The US wants to switch its military assets out of europe and into the Pacific. Engaging in a full scale land war in eurasia is the last thing the US needs to do. Biden has resisted the pressures so to do. Tick.
He has, instead, fed Ukraine enough weapons, wealth and munitions to bleed a despot white. Setting aside the ethics of proxy wars, they often make for excellent and relatively inexpensive geostrategic outcomes. Arguably, Ukraine is a Biden success.
Whatever the ins and outs of the matter, China chose not to invade Taiwan under Biden’s presidency. Another Tick.
BTW, there is not a lot of hoo haa about it but Albanese is also the first Australian prime minister in over 20 years to keep Australia out of foreign wars. Big Tick, IMO.
‘Confessions says:
Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 7:54 pm
Boerwar @ #2262 Saturday, July 20th, 2024 – 7:51 pm
confessions
I note that the GOP were the most likely partisans to agree with Harris’ proposition….
Yeah they likely didn’t get the coconut tree thing much less link it to Harris. Otherwise I’ve no doubt the question would’ve split among partisan lines.’
—————–
Agree. The context was just too hard for them to understand.
Douglas and Milko says Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 7:39 pm
I heard a story during the 2016 election of a taxi driver criticising Obamacare but then commending the Affordable Care Act.
I was visiting Atlanta about 13 years ago (my, how time flies) and was talking to an American about healthcare. She called universal health care “socialised medicine” like it was a bad thing.
Medicare
Your doctor, he work for the gummint now.
Superannuation
The Gummint maaaates will take 12% of your wages every week,give it back 5 years before you die.
If you’re lucky.
The Accord
13 years of wage stagnation and soaring prices.
Thanks labor.
World Heritage and stopping Franklin Dam
The Emissions Free power might have come in handy the last 41 years.
Outlawing sexual discrimination in workplace (Badthinker still sore about this one)
Seen any female brickies? Neither have I.
Dumping God Save the Queen as national anthem
Can 1 in 100 Australians recite the first 3 verses of the dirge Advance Australia Fair?
Floating the $A
https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/the-floating-dollar-as-a-threat-to-property-rights/
Democratic strategists and party insiders say President Biden’s postdebate crisis response has been as damaging to his chances of beating former President Trump in November as the disastrous debate performance itself. They say there’s little Biden can do to change the narrative short of dropping out of the race, a view that is shared by a majority of Democratic senators and a large number of Democratic House members.
Gaffes Biden made at the NATO summit and in interviews with George Stephanopoulos and Black Entertainment Television, the waning support of media stalwarts such as MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough, and the worsening divisions within the Democratic Party have only solidified the prevailing view that Biden can’t beat Trump.
Growing pessimism about Biden’s candidacy has fueled a new round of calls from Democratic lawmakers for him to drop out of the race to avoid a potential disaster in November.
Democratic strategists say those calls will multiply and get louder next week if Biden stays in the race past the weekend.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4782694-biden-crisis-debate-democratic-insiders/
Hh
Trump demonstrated in his RNC speech that he is vastly less cognitively equipped to be POTUS than is Biden.
But the MSM have decided that it is Biden, not Trump, who must go.
Next, please.
”
Democracy Sausagesays:
Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 6:07 pm
Joe Biden comes across as a rather selfish old man, who cares more about his own needs and that of his family more than the welfare of the Democratic Party and its candidates.
If he refuses to budge, the likely loss in November is on his head, nobody else’s.
”
Biden comes across more as Scranton boy than a Delaware man.
Using eleven data points – incumbency among them – Prof. (Emeritus?) Litchman (Harvard, PhD) is unequivocal that if Biden isn’t pressured from the race, he would be reelected:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-hZeRQxA0g
Is he a nutty professor or given his success in predicting elections since ’82, does he have a point? I’m agnostic thereof.
______________________________________
Oh, I didn’t listen to the last minutes. He’s not unequivocal.
”
Wat Tylersays:
Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 6:16 pm
While I don’t hold any grudges or contempt towards people who are rallying behind Biden (they’re entitled to their view and I am entitled to mine), the toxicity among some of their numbers – especially older centrists – is comparable to some of the more toxic elements of recent US political discourse and has pissed away a lot of goodwill they had. The sad part is how many are African American and claiming that not whole-heartedly supporting Biden, an older white guy, is in fact racist.
”
There is an opinion on left that left wingers are not ‘racists’.
Yes, most on left may not be racists but quite a few are indeed that.
FWIW, I have been spending this evening looking at poll trends in states and this is where I am at right now as far as my projection goes:
Of course, that’s just a snapshot of how I think things lie right at this moment. Things can change, for better or worse. And, yes, full acknowledgement to the fact that this week was the week of the GOP convention and a failed assassination, probably inflating Trump’s numbers a bit more.
The different tones don’t represent margins of victory, they represent my confidence i.e. dark blue/red represents states I am confident in each respective winning, whereas the lighter variants represent those I think the respective candidate is ahead in but could theoretically swing back.
As you can see the trend is not on Biden’s side IMO. And right now I see it being a 317-221 win for Trump, with Trump winning all his 2016 states + NV and NH but we’re on the cusp of MN or VA falling too – ME-A.L. is also on the cards but I can only base that on its margins from the last two elections – reliable polling has been a bit scarce there. On the other end of the scale, I can see NH swinging back but that’s it right now. If things get considerably worse for Biden, CO, NM and ME-1 could also be next on the block. If suddenly the tide dramatically changes, we could see some of regains in those dark pink states but, yeah, we’re dealing in a lot of ifs now.
So, my projection is that it could as low as 180 for Biden but as high as 276 but don’t let the latter fool you into thinking it could go either way – 270+ is a longshot.
Wat, I think youve got good rationale to back it up, and honestly I would keep a copy for election day
If your only claim to fame , of having achieved anything at all in government then two years in Opposition , is trashing the Voice referendum debate and ensuring its failure you don’t deserve any respect or attention Bad nor do your Liberal luvvies. You whinge and whine like Dutton but come up with nothing of substance about how and why you would ‘fix things’. That’s why I pay you no heed, you are full of chit like your Liberal masters though I doubt that even they would want a moron in their camp.
@Wat Tyler at 8:43pm
Yeah, I agree with that in that’s what it looks like if Biden stands still as the nominee.
Only changes I’d make is that Oregon, Colorado and New Mexico should be slightly lighter shades of blue
Lordbain @ #2279 Saturday, July 20th, 2024 – 8:15 pm
I’ll keep all my projections that I make between now and November (and I’ll date them) because that is obviously just a snapshot and things could radically change before then (and no, not necessarily for the better either.)
Kirsdarke @ #2281 Saturday, July 20th, 2024 – 8:18 pm
I’d like to see a bit more of bad Oregon polling before worrying about it at this point and I don’t think New Mexico or Colorado are quite as close to tipping as Virginia and Minnesota are. But your concerns are definitely all valid and I wouldn’t disagree with any map giving them a lighter shade of blue.
”
Badthinkersays:
Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 6:16 pm
This rarely happens in Australia. We seem to retire our elected reps while they’re still reasonably vital and able to have a life beyond politics.
Congress is up for election every 2 years and the Pension Plan isn’t much good.
they’re either defeated for reelection or die in office.
A Judge retired a couple of years ago, aged 98, appointed by Truman [left office Jan. 1953].
When Johnson first went to Washington, the elevator operator at the Capitol was a former congressman.
”
Whether Badthinker is posting facts or not, I don’t know.
But Badthinker has valid that they do not have a good pension plan. US was laissez faire Capitalist society till Franklin Roosevelt became POTUS. He implemented a fair bit of social economic reforms called ‘The New deal’ and it lasted till Reagan destroyed it. Due to those Roosevelt reforms the middle class grew and poor had something during hard times. Some argue that New deal along wirth Marshall plan made US a developed and most powerful country.
Starmer has freedom of action.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/20/hereditary-peers-house-of-lords-end
Albanese is being blocked from acting by the Thug and Blocker Bandicoot.
Currently being held up or blocked altogether: the Voice, religious discrimination reform, taxation of superannuantion accounts over $3 million, political donations reform, NDIS reform and the supply of social housing for women and children seeking escape from DV, for rough sleepers and for remote Indigenous homeless people.
And also, had I done that map a month ago, it probably would have had Biden close to the magic number.
[‘No one quite knows what the process of picking a new nominee would be if Joe Biden did step aside – but many Democrats say that any process is likelier than ever to quickly end with Vice President Kamala Harris as the nominee.
The informal conversations about how a fight to replace Biden at the top of the ticket would play out have been raging for weeks behind the scenes. But uncertainty about the process has been so unclear it’s given multiple Democrats – even those with serious concerns about Biden – pause about coming out against the president’s candidacy, given that what comes next could be even messier.
“F**k it, I’m coconut pilled. I just want this to stop,” said one well-known Democratic operative, referring to the online meme that has taken off from an old video of the vice president telling a story of her mother saying, “You think you just fell out of a coconut tree?”
It’s not that everyone has suddenly coalesced – but exhaustion is gelling into consensus.
Internal polls that show Harris would at least be more helpful to boosting Democratic enthusiasm and aiding down ballot races are getting passed around. Arguments that she would be fastest to put together a campaign are landing harder. Daydreams of her making a more active and vigorous case against Donald Trump are taking root.
Many are deliberately holding off talking about hypotheticals as Biden aides say he plans to get back on the campaign trail next week once he recovers from Covid-19. But if that suddenly changes, two dozen leading Democratic politicians and operatives told CNN, they can’t realistically see this ending any other way.
Some are pushing for a fast and closed process, where delegates would bless the swap as part of their planned pre-convention virtual nomination plan.
Some reject the idea of a coronation, either because they prefer others or don’t like the way that would look. But – though there are musings about quickly creating a series of blitz primaries or town halls – no one can agree how that would work with just over 100 days until the election and much less than that before Democrats are scheduled to gather in Chicago. Still, it’s an idea some Harris backers support, doubting that anyone serious would challenge her, as much chest puffing as there is behind the scenes.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/20/politics/democratic-consensus-harris-should-biden-step-aside/index.html
Whatever the decision is, time is of the essence.
Wat Tyler @ #2284 Saturday, July 20th, 2024 – 8:52 pm
Yeah, that’s fair. Just I know that inland Oregon is very deep red, and its biggest city Portland isn’t as big as Washington’s Seattle to offset that, so that was what I was thinking there.
As for New Mexico, it has similar demographics to Nevada and Arizona so if they flip heavily to Trump, NM would probably be soon to follow.
As for Colorado, the leaked internal Democratic polling to Puck News has it on 1.9%, but that’s also a one-off.
I’m definitely less confident on Colorado. Colorado was actually quite close in 2016, and while that’s a different election, it could be a sleeper and I could definitely be overestimating Biden there. I’d like to see some good recent polling in that neck of the woods.
Emerson College poll:
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-swing-state-polls/
Thanks for the link Mavis
When third-party candidates are added to the ballot test, Trump either maintains or extends his advantage in the national poll and 6 of 7 swing states.
Arizona: Trump 46%, Biden 36%, other candidates 8.2%
Georgia: Trump 44%, Biden 39%, other candidates 9.3%
Michigan: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 8.3%
Nevada: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 9.2%
North Carolina: Trump 47%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.7%
Pennsylvania: Trump 46%, Biden 40%, other candidates 6.3%
Wisconsin: Trump 46%, Biden 43%, other candidates 6.5%
National: Trump 44%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.4 %
If Biden doesnt look at this and see the writing on the wall…
Mavis @ #2291 Saturday, July 20th, 2024 – 9:09 pm
Oh yikes. Arizona with Trump +10, national polling Trump+6, very nasty numbers here.
Kremlin-appointed officials responsible for electricity deliveries in southwest Russia and Russia-occupied eastern Ukraine on Friday were struggling to halt accelerating blackouts and prevent collapse of the regional power grid, as millions of power consumers sat in the dark or sweltered without air conditioners.
A punishing trifecta of an emergency shutdown of one of four reactors at one of Russia’s biggest nuclear power stations, record-high temperatures that meteorologists predict will last at least another week, and damage caused by Ukrainian drones targeting transformer stations was responsible for rolling black-outs, emergency shut-downs and other interruptions to service.
Gray-outs and power failures were reported most often in densely-populated cities and districts of Russia’s southwestern Rostov Oblast, and across the border with Ukraine in the Russia-occupied Crimea peninsula and Donetsk region – a land space roughly the size of Poland and home, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, to some eight million people.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/36087
I’d still rather have someone who forgets a few names to someone who is insane. Shows the state of mind of American voters.
Americans have shown time and time again they prefer the appearance of strength with madness then even the hint of weakness.
Three things a government/leader cannot be perceived as:
– Incompetent
– Weak
– Out of touch
This is a universal thing that applies everywhere BTW, not just in the US. Regardless of what the real story is regarding Biden’s health, he is now completely perceived as unable to the job and therefore incompetent. This is exacerbated by issues plaguing his term, including economic issues (regardless of the truth, people are associating the Biden economy with everything being too expensive), a messy foreign policy (the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal was the straw that broke the camel’s back and saw his ratings plummet.)
He also has projected weakness and being out of touch too but the competency perception is what hurts. And, as much of an abrasive authoritarian as Trump might be, he isn’t perceived as weak, incompetent or out of touch. And any problems with his management last time is getting whitewashed by nostalgia.
And yes, that broader lesson of the three fatal qualities is transferrable to other leaders, including our own.
Lordbain, Kirsdarke:
No doubt about those numbers – they’re shockers. I think it likely that Biden will withdraw, perhaps as soon as Sunday. But I’m not sure Harris will be much better off. I see AOC turns 35 in October & she’s seems to be not too keen on Kamala & disagrees with the way Democratic ”elites” have deserted Biden. I think she has leadershp ambitions which might be realised in ’28. I’m off.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4781905-ocasio-cortez-joe-biden-kamala-harris-democratic-elites-nominee/
Hey Mavis, the theory a few of us far lefties have regarding AOC, Sanders etcs support of Biden is that they are doing everything they can to make sure the optics wont be so easily used to make the progressive wing the scapegoat when this farce ends, as was the narrative in 2016 (and a lesser extent in 2020).
Because this will be decided regardless of the progressive wing, the wing can just say they support the nominee, and then go along with the enivtable. That way, its harder to say “typical lefties ruined it”, or “usual bernie bro behaviour” etc.
Hasnt stopped some articles from trying to blame progressives, but we will see.
And if AOC doesnt have leadership ambitions i would be shocked, but then its rare to find a poli that doesnt…
The Afghan withdrawal had been set for May 2021 by the Trump administration. The Biden administration put it back three months to allow more time for preparation. In the end, it was a debacle, the Afghan Army basically collapsed. Had Trump won in 2020, it would have collapsed three months earlier.
The alternative seems to have been for the USA cancel the withdrawal and stay indefinitely. Would the American voters have accepted that?
One for the road. The RNC ratings were a ‘disaster’:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imqwRNgYujA