Polls: Resolve Strategic, Roy Morgan, Essential Research (open thread)

Labor gets its worst poll for the term from Resolve Strategic, but a better one than last week from Roy Morgan.

Nine Newspapers reports the monthly federal poll from Resolve Strategic gives the Coalition its best result for the term, with its primary vote up two points to 38% while the Labor remains stuck at 28%, the Greens are down one to 13% and One Nation is steady at 6%. A two-party preferred calculation based on preference flows from 2022 produces something close to a dead heat. The poll also records Peter Dutton retaining the one-point lead on preferred prime minister that he attained for the first time in last month’s poll, now at 35-34 from 36-35 last time. Albanese’s combined very good and good performance rating tumbles five points to 32% with very poor and poor up three to 54%, while Dutton is respectively down three to 39% and steady on 40%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1603.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has a better result for Labor than last time, putting them ahead 50.5-49.5 on two-party preferred (UPDATE: I have this the wrong way round – it’s the Coalition leading 50.5-49.5)) compared with a 51.5-48.5 Coalition lead last time. This is based on respondent-allocated preferences, the pollster’s calculation based on preference flows at the 2022 election putting Labor ahead 51.5-48.5. The primary votes have the Coalition down two points to 37.5%, Labor up two-and-a-half to 31%, the Greens down one to 12.5% and One Nation steady at 5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1758.

The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll focuses on attitudes towards Australian democracy, with 37% reporting satisfaction, up five from March, 30% dissatisfaction, down one, and 33% neither, up one. Voting intention results from the poll will be along later today.

UPDATE: Voting intention from the Essential Research poll has Labor at 29% (down one), the Coalition at 33% (steady), the Greens at 13% (up one), One Nation at 8% (steady), the United Australia Party at 3% (up two) and others at 14% (down two), with the balance undecided. On the 2PP+ measure, the Coalition’s lead is out from 47-46 to 48-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,313 comments on “Polls: Resolve Strategic, Roy Morgan, Essential Research (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 47
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  1. The government seems to be stuck in the doldrums. The tax cuts don’t appear to have made much difference to its popularity. Union thugs are in the headlines, which is always bad for Labor. Housing/immigration remains a critical issue. The global outlook is getting scarier by the day.

    It’s no longer a time for just coasting along. Some sort of strong action is required, or they might end up being thrown out of government on their a__es. And we’ll be being ruled by a potato. Please God no.

  2. Trump documents case ludicrously dismissed. And for his VP candidate, Trump goes with Vance: one of the few people on the planet who is perhaps an even bigger phoney than Trump.

  3. meher baba @ #2 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 5:38 am

    Trump documents case ludicrously dismissed. And for his VP candidate, Trump goes with Vance: one of the few people on the planet who is perhaps an even bigger phoney than Trump.

    The other former Democrat-leaning shape-shifter who can lie with a straight face like Trump. Figures.

  4. Vance once said “The president is right. I wasn’t always nice, but the simple fact is, he’s the best president of my lifetime, and he revealed the corruption in this country like nobody else.” an irony free zone so thick you’d suffocate if you were breathing it.

  5. Well, I hope all those other contenders for the job of Trump’s Running Mate who abased themselves publicly will take a good, hard look at themselves now. No, how silly of me. Now they’ll just continue to suck up to try and get a job in the Trump Administration.

  6. Mostly Interested @ #4 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 6:17 am

    Vance once said “The president is right. I wasn’t always nice, but the simple fact is, he’s the best president of my lifetime, and he revealed the corruption in this country like nobody else.” an irony free zone so thick you’d suffocate if you were breathing it.

    Yeah. Trump did corruption in the open. 😐

  7. meher baba says:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 5:20 am

    It’s no longer a time for just coasting along. Some sort of strong action is required, or they might end up being thrown out of government on their a__es. And we’ll be being ruled by a potato. Please God no
    —————————
    Federal Lib/nats are making no inroads the voters they are getting are lib/nats leaning minority partys voters which does them no good in non lib/nats held seats, only in Lib/nats held seats

    The signs for the federal lib/nats and propaganda media units they are not going to make the 2025 federal election competitive enough to force Labor into minority , the federal lib/nats combined primary vote can not be consistently over 40% or be consistently in front in the 2pp despite all the so-called circumstances against Federal labor

  9. Pueo @ #8 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 6:23 am

    Judge who dismissed Trump criminal case is ‘future supreme court justice’, Gaetz says

    Far-right Florida congressman is asked by critic: ‘Are you admitting to a quid pro quo?’’

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/15/trump-classified-documents-case-matt-gaetz-supreme-court

    Of course, that’s why she did it. It’s what I thought all along about her.

    I’ve also thought that Merrick Garland has been a hopeless AG.

  10. Jesus freaking Christ. Literally!

    On Monday, the Republican national convention began in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Gaetz is due to address the event this week.

    But he is also widely held to be preparing a run for Florida governor and on Monday he was due to appear in his home state, staging a “Never Surrender Rally” at a Baptist church in Pensacola.

    According to promotional materials, the event would offer Floridians a chance “to show your support and pray for president Donald J Trump”, after he survived an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania on Saturday.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/15/trump-classified-documents-case-matt-gaetz-supreme-court

    Is there nothing to do with religion that will not be debased to advantage Donald Trump!?!

  11. Those in the federal liberal party will have to deal with whether they will change the federal liberal party leader around October this year

    They can not hide Peter Dutton’s nuclear and supermarket thought bubbles too much longer

  15. Well Trump has managed to shove Biden off the front pages. And onto our front pages as well.

    And Rupert’s organ is calling a road to Damascus conversion moment for him. The gushing coverage may be too soon…

  18. On JD Vance:

    This past Saturday, two hours after a twenty-year-old Pennsylvania man with hazy political commitments and uncertain motives tried to kill Donald Trump, Senator J. D. Vance, a Republican from Ohio, typed out a reaction on social media: “Today is not just some isolated incident. The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.”

    Follow the logic of Washington, Vance’s selection as Trump’s running mate on Monday makes sense. Vance is the most conservative of the three finalists for the nomination, the most outspokenly loyal, and the most pugnaciously partisan—qualities that fit a candidate who is increasingly leading in the polls and looking ahead at fights to come. But Vance is also someone who has rapidly tracked from a genial reform conservatism to a hard-edged populism, which itself seems to be metastasizing again, all following a track of anti-élitism. He is an attack dog for Trump, but he is also something more emergent and interesting: he is the fuse that Trump lit.

    It has been just two years since Vance, who is thirty-nine, first ran for elective office. His rise has been as sharp as any politician to emerge since Barack Obama, and it has been similarly fuelled by a rare ability to convert the raw material of his life into a compelling social narrative. Vance was raised in Appalachian Ohio by his grandparents, since his mother struggled with addiction. He served as an enlisted marine in Iraq before attending Ohio State, and then Yale Law School, where his mentor Amy Chua, the author of “Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother,” encouraged him to package his experience as a memoir. The result, “Hillbilly Elegy,” was published in 2016 and became a phenomenon; the New York Times named it one of six books that explained Trump’s victory, a status made possible by Vance’s own anti-Trumpism. (During the 2016 campaign, Vance messaged his former roommate, “I go back and forth between thinking Trump is a cynical asshole like Nixon who wouldn’t be that bad (and might even prove useful) or that he’s America’s Hitler.”)

    Some of the characterizations in “Hillbilly Elegy,” even at the time, seemed two-dimensional, but Vance’s rags-to-riches story and the timeliness of his analysis, which argued that economic dislocation had degraded the social relationships upon which a good life had depended in places like southwestern Ohio, gave it a cinematic lift. In 2020, by which time Vance had worked as a venture capitalist in Silicon Valley, and earned the patronage of Peter Thiel, “Hillbilly Elegy” was released as a movie directed by Ron Howard.

    The four-year trip from there (well-regarded, category-defying young conservative intellectual) to here (right-wing firebrand and Trump V.P. pick) has been equally extraordinary, and has hinged on two changes: one in Vance and one within conservatism. The change in Vance was that his politics hardened as he prepared to run for elective office. In an extended interview with the Times’ Ross Douthat last month, he attributed this turn to a shift he detected in liberalism toward the end of the Trump Presidency. “The thing that I kept thinking about liberalism in 2019 and 2020 is that these guys have all read Carl Schmitt—there’s no law, there’s just power,” Vance said. “And the goal here is to get back in power.

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/why-donald-trump-picked-j-d-vance-for-vice-president

    Sounds perfect for Trump. 😐

  19. Sprocket, that’s what I was suggesting last night, find god start holy war. (No god or holiness included)

    What Trump was missing from his Jan 6 attempt was a loyal military. One of the pillars of a true attempt at power holding. He’s said border force saved his life the other day but to him turning to their stats chart. I’m betting he promises to quadruple their numbers and cr ate that force he was missing last time.

  21. Sketchy details emerging of life choices for 20 year olds in rural America.

    Still struggling to find a motive, asking ‘Why?’ When the real question is ‘Why not?’

    On the morning of the shooting, the person familiar with the investigation said Crooks bought 50 rounds of ammunition at a local gun store called Alleghany Arms. The store owner and employees declined to comment when visited by a reporter from The Washington Post on Monday morning, offering a statement that said they have a “prerogative to cooperate with law enforcement in every way.”

    “We are thankful that President Trump was not assassinated and our hearts and prayers go out to all victims of this horrible incident,” the statement said.

    The gunman was a member of the Clairton Sportsmen’s Club, a shooting club in Clairton, Pa., a club lawyer confirmed Monday.

    The club “fully admonishes the senseless act of violence that occurred on Saturday,” Robert S. Bootay III said. He added that the club “offers its sincerest condolences to the Comperatore family and extends prayers to all of those injured, including the former president.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/07/15/thomas-crooks-trump-assassination-investigation/

  23. ‘meher baba says:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 5:20 am

    The government seems to be stuck in the doldrums. The tax cuts don’t appear to have made much difference to its popularity. Union thugs are in the headlines, which is always bad for Labor. Housing/immigration remains a critical issue. The global outlook is getting scarier by the day.

    It’s no longer a time for just coasting along. Some sort of strong action is required, or they might end up being thrown out of government on their a__es. And we’ll be being ruled by a potato. Please God no.’
    ———————–
    LOL.
    NDIS reform, electoral reform and social housing provision are being blocked by Thug and Bandicoot.
    The Bandicoot is desperate to destroy the Labor Government. Dutton is laughing his arse off.

  24. c@t: Vance is a Yale law graduate who is married to another Yale law graduate. He claims to have mostly grown up in the Appalachians with his grandparents, but he is also recorded as being a graduate of Middletown High School. I haven’t been to Middletown, but I once spent a day in nearby Dayton, and that was about as hillbilly as Epping, NSW.

    He’s a shapeshifter. He’s even recently converted from Protestantism to Catholicism. He’ll say whatever Trump and the Maga Republicans want him to say.

    His one redeeming feature is that he is smart. I belong to the school of thought that believes that smart and evil is always preferable to stupid and evil and even, at times, is better than stupid and good.

  25. With Trump’s dementia fully disabling him before 2028 Vance will most likely be the 48th president so he is well worth studying.
    But will he survive Trump’s malignant narcissism?

  28. Reed Galen@reedgalen
    ·
    2h
    Congratulations to @JDVance1 whose presence on the ticket turns @realDonaldTrump
    into an instant lame duck on Nov. 6th (should he win.) #RNC2024

  29. Lazy and intelligent wins.

    57-43 now 50-50.

    Labor out of runway needs to stop drifting down.Reshuffle? Anything!

  30. If the federal Lib/nats and propaganda media units had their way

    Federal Elections would be QLD voters only until those voters in QLD change

  31. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Here’s David Crowe’s take on the latest Resolve poll.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-swing-to-dutton-in-new-sign-of-angst-over-economy-20240715-p5jto8.html
    According to Nick McKenzie et al, Anthony Albanese and Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan were separately sent detailed evidence in 2022 that CFMEU officials were threatening extreme violence and unlawfully black-banning non-union-preferred firms from state and federally funded projects.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/warning-on-cfmeu-intimidation-sent-to-allan-albanese-in-2022-20240715-p5jtn8.html
    The editorial in the SMH says the “zero tolerance rhetoric over the CFMEU follows years of wilful blindness.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/zero-tolerance-rhetoric-over-the-cfmeu-follows-years-of-willful-blindness-20240715-p5jtvs.html
    The CFMEU needs a clean out, not more of the same. The decision by the CFMEU national office to put the Victorian construction division under its control does not go far enough and looks like a desperate attempt to stall tougher federal government action, declares Ben Schneiders.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/it-s-a-union-not-a-bikie-gang-cfmeu-needs-a-serious-overhaul-not-more-of-the-same-20240715-p5jtqt.html
    Meanwhile, Labor’s federal executive is set to ban donations from the Victorian branch of the CFMEU to cauterise the political damage over revelations of underworld infiltration into the scandal-plagued construction union, as pressure increases on the Albanese government to intervene.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/victorian-cfmeu-placed-into-administration-by-national-executive-20240715-p5jtoc.html
    All eyes are on Labor as alleged corruption envelops the CFMEU. Amthony Fawcett explains what the government’s options are.
    https://theconversation.com/all-eyes-on-labor-as-alleged-corruption-envelops-cfmeu-here-are-the-governments-options-234666
    Jenna Price tells us why, in her opinion, John Setka’s departure is good news for women.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/see-ya-setka-why-union-chief-s-departure-is-good-news-for-women-20240714-p5jtgz.html
    Adam Bandt says the Greens have replaced Labor as the authentic party of the centre-left and will win over voters by taking a ‘Robin Hood platform to the election’, writes Joe Kelly. He reports that in a pre-election challenge to Anthony Albanese, the Greens’ leader said the minor party would adopt stronger policies to fight inequality, strengthen the social safety net and sharpen Australia’s foreign policy independence.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/adam-bandts-plan-for-greens-to-usurp-labor-on-left/news-story/b86f7f9fb6e4248fee700b0dbe8ca69d?amp=
    Paul Bongiorno o[ines that, after the Trump shooting, Australia is not immune but better placed.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2024/07/16/paul-bongiorno-trump-australia
    Developers of giant batteries designed to smooth Australia’s shift from coal to cleaner power are attracting unprecedented global financing deals to start installing even bigger systems across the country, writes Nick Toscano. Grid-scale batteries, with near-zero start-up time, are considered critical to the green energy transition because of their ability to soak up surplus renewable energy in the daytime and use it to plug gaps in supply and stabilise the system at times of low wind and sunlight.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/giant-batteries-are-getting-even-bigger-in-australia-as-coal-exit-nears-20240712-p5jtba.html
    Parliament’s Joint Committee on Human Rights has tabled a report that makes a persuasive argument for comprehensive legislation to protect Australians’ fundamental human rights. Its Inquiry into Australia’s Human Rights Framework (2024) identifies a catalogue of deficiencies in the nation’s disaggregated systems of human rights protection. The report provides a new and compelling case for Parliament to revisit the idea that Australia should join every other Western nation in providing comprehensive legal protection to combat the widespread infringement of human rights, argues Spencer Zifcak.
    https://johnmenadue.com/federal-parliamentary-committee-presents-a-decisive-case-for-an-australian-human-rights-act/
    Alan Kohler declares, “Victoria’s rail loop is a travesty; its housing plan is good but doomed”.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/07/15/alan-kohler-rail-loop-housing
    Hiring freezes and job losses at Victorian hospitals are prompting many healthcare workers to look interstate for work, reports Henrietta Cook.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/doctors-look-interstate-for-work-as-victorian-budget-squeeze-hits-hard-20240714-p5jtlv.html
    Old habits are hard to kick for banks. They’re behaving badly – again, says Elizabeth Knight.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/old-habits-are-hard-to-kick-for-banks-they-re-behaving-badly-again-20240715-p5jtrt.html
    Matt O’Sullivan reports that NSW’s fire agency commanders have savaged the private operator of Sydney’s metro line for its dire response to a system-wide outage which left passengers stuck on trains in tunnels for two hours, warning of an “absolute failure” of emergency plans and “zero appreciation” of danger to life by rail staff.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/absolute-failure-sydney-metro-operator-slammed-for-emergency-disarray-20240715-p5jtny.html
    Julie Hare reports that South Australia’s new mega university has begun recruiting international students for its inaugural 2026 intake as the federal government’s migration reforms bite hard on the education sector.
    https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/education/sa-s-new-mega-university-starts-recruiting-overseas-students-20240714-p5jth8
    Linda Reynolds’ lawyer, Martin Bennett, said his team was working through documents Network Ten supplied on subpoena, including a report on Higgins’ mobile phone. The documents are from former Liberal staffer Bruce Lehrmann’s failed defamation case against the media outlet and journalist Lisa Wilkinson. This is going to be dirty.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/western-australia/bruce-lehrmann-ten-evidence-probed-for-higgins-reynolds-defamation-case-20240715-p5jtwp.html
    Two threats to democracy, one domestic and one hailing from the U.S., have collaborated on an Australian tour to promote Right-wing propaganda, reports Ross Jones. He says, “Clive Palmer is a threat to Australia’s domestic stability. Tucker Carlson is a Putin enabler and a threat to American democracy. Put them together and you have the Australian Freedom Conference, an extravaganza of Right-wing demagoguery for both the curious and the benighted.”
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/clive-palmer-teams-with-tucker-carlson-for-rwnj-tour,18771
    The UK, US and the EU are among those sanctioning Chinese companies accused of helping Russia wreak havoc in Ukraine. The Albanese government is an outlier, writes Lisa Visentin.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/australia-refuses-to-match-allies-sanctioning-china-over-support-for-russian-war-20240712-p5jt7q.html
    A lot has happened in the space of 14 days — from a surprising Left victory in France, the end of a Tory dynasty in England, plots to get a sitting U.S. president to step out of a re-election campaign and an attempt on Donald Trump’s life. As Martin Hirst explains, history sometimes moves at the speed of light.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/trumps-golden-bullet-portend-of-an-apocalypse,18772
    A second Trump presidency could lead to a new breakout of inflation in the US, even as the Federal Reserve board’s independence would be under threat, warns Stephen Bartholomeusz referring to Trumps’ radical policy agenda.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/trump-s-radical-policy-agenda-looms-larger-after-the-shooting-20240715-p5jtnr.html
    Referring to a book by Matt Dallek. Peter Hartcher looks at why so many American presidents have been the subject of assassination attempts. America is a mess!
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/assassination-in-the-usa-why-does-america-take-aim-at-its-leaders-20240715-p5jtse.html
    Unable to confront its murderous past, America continues to suffer from historical amnesia when it comes to political violence, writes Nick Bryant who says, “Political violence is a core strand of the national story. It is as American as apple pie. What we witnessed on Saturday evening, when the shots rang out in Pennsylvania, was not some freak event.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/why-attack-on-trump-is-no-watershed-moment-for-america-20240715-p5jtpo.html
    The failed assassination of Donald Trump has launched modern American politics into uncharted waters, as Joe Biden calls for a ratcheting down of rhetoric and Republicans blame him without knowing the motive of the would-be assassin. Trump will walk into this week’s Republican National Convention in Milwaukee as a defiant hero, while the Democrats continue to debate if Biden will be their candidate, says Parker McKenzie.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/us-news/2024/07/15/trump-post-assassination
    Another editorial in the SMH says, “Like the Statue of Liberty, America was once a torch for the world that democracy can create a fairer, more just and happier society. This recourse to violence lessens democracy and threatens that light.” Indeed!
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-gunman-took-direct-aim-at-the-american-political-process-20240714-p5jthg.html
    “America has suffered grievous, seemingly irreparable internal division throughout its history. But ultimately the great American friendliness will prevail”, sermonised Greg Sheridan.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/yes-america-is-riven-by-extremes-but-it-will-rebound/news-story/97ef10e5029b11eea0abd5909f37e0f0?amp=
    The former president is promising a softer version of himself which is so at odds with anything in his 78-year-old history that it will be greeted with understandable scepticism, writes Cameron Stewart.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/how-long-will-this-softer-unifying-version-of-donald-trump-last-lets-see-how-the-convention-goes/news-story/6d6fab77f137048036fc3946f2bc165b?amp=
    It is ironic that a past and would be President who has been a strong supporter of 2nd Amendment freedoms to own assault rifles was nearly killed by one. The AR-15 developed for civilians by the arms industry to mimic the US Army’s M-16 was a result of Congressional failure to extend the federal assault weapon ban. Gun control is a Democrat issue and bitterly opposed by Republicans. Along with Race and Immigration, gun control is the issue most starkly dividing the parties. So it is a symbol of the Great Polarisation, writes Roger Beale.
    https://johnmenadue.com/the-trump-assassination-attempt-an-inevitable-result-of-toxic-polarisation/
    Farrah Tomazin reports that Trump will no longer face trial for mishandling classified documents after a federal judge he appointed threw out the case, ruling that the prosecutor overseeing the charges was improperly appointed. Said judge, Aileen Cannon, is not at all a respected jurist and Jack Smith has indicated that he will fight this ruling.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/classified-documents-case-against-trump-dismissed-20240716-p5jtxn.html
    Biden planned to ramp up his attacks on Trump. Now those plans are in disarray, explains Tomazin.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/attempt-on-trump-s-life-throws-biden-s-attack-plan-into-disarray-20240715-p5jtqd.html
    In the meantime, the far-right Florida Republican Matt Gaetz has hailed Aileen Cannon – the judge who dismissed the classified documents case against Donald Trump – as a “future supreme court justice”. Figures!
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/15/trump-classified-documents-case-matt-gaetz-supreme-court
    In Sydney, three men have been found guilty by a jury of the gang rape of three women during a buck’s party weekend in Newcastle. Surely this qualifies these specimens for nomination for “Arseholes of the Week”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/trio-found-guilty-of-gang-rape-of-three-women-during-buck-s-weekend-20240711-p5jss5.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    David Rowe

    Cathy Wilcox

    Matt Golding


    Andrew Dyson

    Matt Bissett-Johnson

    Glen Le Lievre

    Mark Knight

    Spooner

    From the US


























  32. I think meher’s ‘shapeshifter’ description of Vance is a good one. Having said that, on where he stands currently on the big issues, his selection as VP candidate makes a lot of sense. It is another nail in the coffin of the establishment GOP, with its focus on free markets and strong international intervention. Vance is, like Trump, less concerned about those matters than the culture wars. In a word, he’s a nativist.

    Trump term 1 saw a tempering of Trump’s personal nativist bent, probably due in no small part to the relative strength of the establishment GOP machine in and around the administration. Eight years on, the party is totally all-in on Trump, to the point that he *is* the Republican Party now (notwithstanding some lonely and increasingly faint voices of opposition). Vance reinforces this.

    It will be fascinating to see where the GOP goes from here, and whether there is any prospect of an alternative conservative movement or party that emerges. Though I wouldn’t hold my breath.

  34. Bizarrely the assassination attempt and the republican convention – mean any attempt to shift Biden probably can’t happen this week.

    That takes it to about 2-3 weeks before the Democratic convention.

    I’d say if Biden’s not gone by next Friday 26 July he is the Democratic nominee for better or for worse.

  36. According to Nick McKenzie et al, Anthony Albanese and Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan were separately sent detailed evidence in 2022 that CFMEU officials were threatening extreme violence and unlawfully black-banning non-union-preferred firms from state and federally funded projects.
    _____________________
    Sat on their arse for 2 years and did nothing.

  37. Vance as vp… not surprising but still horrifying.

    Smart, evil, and not beholden to the republican old guard like pence was.

    On a more fun note, I look forward to seeing how the greens are blamed for the cmfeu 🙂

  40. Lars Von Triersays:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 6:52 am
    [Where have all the three eyed fish memes gone?]
    [Long time passing]

    Those memes Lars will remain long after the realization that the probability of a Dutton LNP Renaissance government was never going to to build enough momentum “to flush” the hard matter deposits remaining after the failed.
    Morrison government was so definitively overthrown.
    The “three eyed fish” memes would be the “dream legacy” of many an aspiring free marketeer. An enduring legacy.

    The “three eyed fish” were so effective that the popular use of the image always remains.
    It’s what comes to mind now everytime you construct another pithy missive.
    (good morning, good morning, good morning)

  41. “JD Vance is a vocal critic of U.S. military aid to Ukraine in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War. He has said it is in America’s interest to accept that “Ukraine is going to have to cede some territory to the Russians”.[88] Vance has faced bipartisan criticism for his views on Ukraine. In December 2023, he was criticized for calling for the suspension of further aid to Ukraine because he said it would be used so its ministers “can buy a bigger yacht”.

  42. One bright hope of JD Vance’s VP candidacy is that it increases the chance that the gigantic grift and fleecing of the Western taxpayer that is Project Ukraine may come to an end. Zelensky, Van Der Leyen, Stoltenberg and the rest of the warmongers must be in an absolute state. No wonder some people want Trump killed.

  43. Democrats pulling campaign ads that refer to trump as a dictator… God, why are the dems so fucking shit at their job (I mean they are controlled opposition so I guess they are spectacular at their job)

  44. Thanks, BK.

    ‘Adam Bandt says the Greens have replaced Labor as the authentic party of the centre-left and will win over voters by taking a ‘Robin Hood platform to the election’, writes Joe Kelly. He reports that in a pre-election challenge to Anthony Albanese, the Greens’ leader said the minor party would adopt stronger policies to fight inequality, strengthen the social safety net and sharpen Australia’s foreign policy independence.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/adam-bandts-plan-for-greens-to-usurp-labor-on-left/news-story/b86f7f9fb6e4248fee700b0dbe8ca69d?amp=‘
    —————————
    The Greens are not centre-left. They are far left.

    Most Australians are not going to vote for the destruction of the ADF.
    Most Australians are not going to vote to leave ANZUS.
    Most Australians are not going to vote for the direct financial consequences of Zero Net Forty.
    Most Australians are not going to vote for the higher taxes that the Bandicoot promises to deliver free everything.
    Most Australians are not going to vote for a command and control economy despite populist promises of a 40% increases in wages, a cap on supermarket prices and a cap on rents.
    Most Australians are not going to vote for the destruction of the oil, coal, gas, uranium, cotton, grape, olive, livestock or aviation industries and the crippling of commodity crops by the ban on GMOs and glyphosate.

    Most Australians as polled right now are going to vote against all those things.

    Bludger Track: The Thug up 1.4%. Hanson up 2.2%. Greens up .6%. Labor down .9%.

    What the Thug and the Bandicoot are pairing up to deliver is crippling governance in Australia in order to destroy the Labor Government.

    Currently delayed: NDIS reform, religious discrimination reform, electoral reform and the provision of social housing.

    What the Bandicoot is doing in practice is replacing Labor with the Thug. Just like the cooties delivered Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison. Anything but Labor.

    Brilliant.

  45. ‘S. Simpson says:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 8:15 am

    One bright hope of JD Vance’s VP candidacy is that it increases the chance that the gigantic grift and fleecing of the Western taxpayer that is Project Ukraine may come to an end. Zelensky, Van Der Leyen, Stoltenberg and the rest of the warmongers must be in an absolute state. No wonder some people want Trump killed.’
    ———————
    Actually it means that megalomaniacal mass murderer Putin will enjoy the fruits of the hundreds of thousands of his very own corpses.
    Enjoy.

  47. ”
    Scottsays:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 6:22 am
    meher baba says:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 5:20 am

    It’s no longer a time for just coasting along. Some sort of strong action is required, or they might end up being thrown out of government on their a__es. And we’ll be being ruled by a potato. Please God no
    —————————
    Federal Lib/nats are making no inroads the voters they are getting are lib/nats leaning minority partys voters which does them no good in non lib/nats held seats, only in Lib/nats held seats

    The signs for the federal lib/nats and propaganda media units they are not going to make the 2025 federal election competitive enough to force Labor into minority , the federal lib/nats combined primary vote can not be consistently over 40% or be consistently in front in the 2pp despite all the so-called circumstances against Federal labor
    ”

    Scott
    God, you are like Victoria, who thinks Biden will win on a canter and Democrats will win both houses of US Congress.

    Someone(could be Lars) compared you Monty python knight, who says it is a small flesh wound when arm is cut.

    Fatima Paymen
    Union thugs
    etc etc

    The political rule is opposition don’t win elections, Governments lose elections.
    Latest example,
    In NSW, Labor did not win the election, L-NP lost
    In UK, Tories lost. Remember Labour got 33.8% vote and won 412 seats. In previous elections Labour lost elections badly with that kind of percentage. Tories lost because they got 23.8%.

  48. I believe JD Vance: In an October 2016 interview with Charlie Rose, Vance said he was a “never Trump guy” and “never liked him,” just months after he told NPR he “can’t stomach Trump.”
    Vance also published an article in The Atlantic in 2016 in which he argued that while Trump “feels good” to many people, “he can’t fix America’s growing social and cultural crisis.”
    Vance published an article in the same year in The New York Times headlined “Why Trump’s Antiwar Message Resonates with White America,” in which he wrote: “Mr. Trump is unfit for our nation’s highest office.”
    Vance also suggested in 2016 he was inclined to believe a woman who accused Trump of sexual assault, saying on “Hardball with Chris Matthews”: “This is sort of he said/she said, right? And at the end of the day, do you believe Donald Trump who always tells the truth? Just kidding, or do you believe that woman on the tape?”
    Some of Vance’s most extreme criticism of Trump was made in private when he texted a former roommate: “I go back and forth between thinking Trump is a cynical asshole like Nixon who wouldn’t be that bad (and might even prove useful) or that he’s America’s Hitler.”

  49. If using the previous words of a political entity worked, trump wouldnt have won in 2016.

    It’s amusing how much Vance literally calling trump Hitler will mean nothing in the end

  50. Ven says:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 8:26 am


    Scott
    God, you are like Victoria, who thinks Biden will win on a canter and Democrats will win both houses of US Congress.

    Someone(could be Lars) compared you Monty python knight, who says it is a small flesh wound when arm is cut.
    ——————–
    The opinion polling companies can not agree with each other
    Kos Samaras
    @KosSamaras
    ·
    1h
    Resolve places Federal Labor’s primary vote at 28%. However, both public and private research I have seen do not support this figure. In fact, the trend has been stable, with Labor in the low to mid-30s and the Coalition in the mid to high-30s. Newspoll is similar.

    It looks like 2022 federal election status quo if they correct

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