Polls: Resolve Strategic, Roy Morgan, Essential Research (open thread)

Labor gets its worst poll for the term from Resolve Strategic, but a better one than last week from Roy Morgan.

Nine Newspapers reports the monthly federal poll from Resolve Strategic gives the Coalition its best result for the term, with its primary vote up two points to 38% while the Labor remains stuck at 28%, the Greens are down one to 13% and One Nation is steady at 6%. A two-party preferred calculation based on preference flows from 2022 produces something close to a dead heat. The poll also records Peter Dutton retaining the one-point lead on preferred prime minister that he attained for the first time in last month’s poll, now at 35-34 from 36-35 last time. Albanese’s combined very good and good performance rating tumbles five points to 32% with very poor and poor up three to 54%, while Dutton is respectively down three to 39% and steady on 40%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1603.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has a better result for Labor than last time, putting them ahead 50.5-49.5 on two-party preferred (UPDATE: I have this the wrong way round – it’s the Coalition leading 50.5-49.5)) compared with a 51.5-48.5 Coalition lead last time. This is based on respondent-allocated preferences, the pollster’s calculation based on preference flows at the 2022 election putting Labor ahead 51.5-48.5. The primary votes have the Coalition down two points to 37.5%, Labor up two-and-a-half to 31%, the Greens down one to 12.5% and One Nation steady at 5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1758.

The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll focuses on attitudes towards Australian democracy, with 37% reporting satisfaction, up five from March, 30% dissatisfaction, down one, and 33% neither, up one. Voting intention results from the poll will be along later today.

UPDATE: Voting intention from the Essential Research poll has Labor at 29% (down one), the Coalition at 33% (steady), the Greens at 13% (up one), One Nation at 8% (steady), the United Australia Party at 3% (up two) and others at 14% (down two), with the balance undecided. On the 2PP+ measure, the Coalition’s lead is out from 47-46 to 48-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,313 comments on “Polls: Resolve Strategic, Roy Morgan, Essential Research (open thread)”

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  1. Looks like they can’t pitchfork Joe out.
    The way around it could be to dump Harris from the ticket and replace her with someone more appealing to white voters than JD Vance.
    Imo, that won’t he hard.

  2. Scott 1 @ #2195 Saturday, July 20th, 2024 – 2:52 pm

    TK

    It’s a good example of the fundamentalist view of centrism. Not a good example of centrism. A true centrist would have gone for the Universal government intervention part.

    If Obama had there would be less people voting for the far right because they still can’t access dentists or doctors.

    Yeah, kinda. So, I do agree that a left of centre government (be it truly left of centre in our sense or a US sense) does need to do things. Doing nothing or only doing very little isnt enough. I mean, what is the point?

    However, if we are talking about the US, it has to be viewed in the prism of US politics. The principle still holds, the left need to accomplish something to keep their voters energised and interested. But accomplishing something in the US for a left of centre executive is very hard. The Right are very aware of the principle so do everything in their power to stop the left doing anything. They stay awake at night, night after night, year after year plotting ways to stop left of centre reform.

    The other part of the prism is the US democracy. Many have written that it is a pretend or limited democracy – certainly a heavily constrained, deficient and conservative democracy

    So, if we ponder why people in the US vote the way they do; it is easy to blame and take pot shots at the Democrats and say they deserve to lose votes for not accomplishing real change that benefits their voting demographic. You can throw in accusations that they do this because many are, indeed, owned by hidden power and money. But I would suggest that people are frustrated by the system as much or more than the Democratic party. And, this frustration becomes even more complicated in a culture of individualism and bizarre ideas about “liberty” fed constantly by the hidden powers and money mentioned above.

    It isnt just the Democrat party that can be blamed here. If people get so caught up in their culture (or cult) and believe all the crap fed to them by those powers to the point the working class will flock to the likes of Donald Trump, then what part of democracy is really to blame? The Democratic Party? Or people who vote against their own interests because of a culture they got sucked into? The democratic party can only do so much in the limited democracy of the US. It takes a large groundswell of voters in more than blue states to gain enough traction to actually make reform there. Especially left wing reform.

  3. Lars Von Trier:

    Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 4:07 pm

    [‘We all feeling perky for Newspoll tomorrow night ?

    Could be a special night ?’]

    I’m predicting a bare 3.

  4. says:
    Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 4:04 pm
    The real problem is when people believe they know best and foist their beliefs on others
    =============================================

    It is strange the Republican party is full of right wing Christians that like to do nothing more than this. Yet also full of so called libertarians, which you would think, this would be the very antithesis of their ideology.

  5. Re Lordbain 3:05 PM regarding the political spectrum: I posted this short video from Robert Reich (< 3 mins) a couple of weeks ago, regarding the situation in the USA:

    https://youtu.be/x_Q9ynm2Rfg?si=Ds5Ehq98A9J4SD1z

    Basically, he says that the Right has moved much further right while the left hasn’t moved much at all. He puts it down to the influence of corporate money.

    I think that the situation is similar here, except that the left has shifted rightwards as well, although not such a great distance. It’s not hard to see how corporate money, via their lobbying, think tanks and alighted media outlets can do that.

  6. The US voting public are up for interesting and out of the box candidates. Yes, they are fairly conservative but this is the US. They do weirds things. They take risks. There is a wild west devil may care attitude in many of them. They voted in Obama. They voted in Trump. They like monster trucks and flock to fake wrestling matches. Oddballs. Nutters. Dont give a rats types. Full of liquorice all sorts. It is for these reasons I believed (and still do) that Sanders may well have won a presidential election. People liked him. He was interesting to watch and listen to. He spoke to and engaged with all and sundry with honesty and respect. In the US, even with his socialist background, his charisma may have been enough. But he knew he was never going to introduce a swathe of socialist policies. Just a few.

  7. Steve777:

    I think the situation here isn’t so much corporate money but the fact that Boomers and Gen Xers (and some older Millenials) have realised wealth through property.

    This seems to me to be the biggest intergenerational wealth gap in Australia.

  8. TK:

    Personally, Sanders never appealed to me.

    I think it’s time a woman became President in the US. Even better, a woman of colour. It’s way past time. What I don’t think the Democrats should do is replace one octogenarian with another.

  9. This is where Americans are right now. A standard question for every Republican candidate from the presidential nominee down needs to be whether they will accept the election results if their party candidate loses.

    And I sincerely hope that this shit does not take hold in Australia.

    But now, he is confident that Trump is on the cusp of a political victory. And if Trump wins, Young — like many jubilant Republicans who gathered here at their party’s convention — said he will accept the electoral outcome.

    “I’m a Republican — if my side wins, I’ll be very happy with it,” said Young, 64, wearing a Trump-themed Hawaiian shirt hours before the former president accepted the GOP’s nomination.

    “But if the Democrat side wins and it appears to me that questionable things have happened …” he trailed off. He confirmed that losing would change his thinking, and he would jump back into action.

    Despite the brimming confidence of Trump supporters, the campaign is preparing them to question the results if things don’t go their way. Trump has preemptively questioned the outcome of the election, sowing doubt in the results long before votes have been cast. In his convention speech on Thursday, he falsely said Democrats “used covid to cheat” in the 2020 presidential election.

    “We’re never going to let it happen again,” he said.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/19/trump-election-results/

  10. TK

    I agree with you about Sanders. I wonder if he would have got the numbers to impeach a Justice or two on the Supreme Court? The good thing about President Biden even at this late hour is his political work with Sanders has delivered a chance for the Democrats to win. He has stood up to the centrists in his party and I do recognise that.

    If not for what seems to be failing health I would still be optimistic that the Democrats would be winning this election,

    So please don’t misunderstand my critique about fundamentalist centralism with a critique of centralism.

  11. Sanders was exactly the candidate needed to beat Trump back in 2016. Meanwhile Clinton was tailor made to lose to a right wing populist.

    Something the Dems never really accepted… I remember the Bernie bro narrative, ignoring that more bernie voters shifted to clinton then clinton voters shifted to obama back in 2008, or hell clinton voters to biden in 2020.

  12. Entropysays:
    Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 2:59 pm
    The work calendar comes out yearly. So it is setup to occur around the job schedule for that year. Though there would be a degree of flexibility in it. If the work schedule went out of schedule during the year.
    _____________________
    I will take pity on you.
    All I will say is that’s not how RDO’s work and leave it at that.

  13. Rachel Maddow (MSNBC host and commentator) on J.D. Vance and why she thinks that he was chosen as Trump’s Vice-Presidential nominee.

    https://youtu.be/NRNy8v_Ocgg?si=aLQei-4-eqiA8e2n

    TL;DR. It’s not his innate brilliance, more that he’s very much on the same wavelength of his mentor and sponsor, major Trump backer Peter Thiel. He shares Trump’s and Thiel’s their vision of America’s future where democracy is incompatible with “freedom”.

  14. Taylormadesays:
    Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 4:59 pm
    Entropysays:
    Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 2:59 pm
    The work calendar comes out yearly. So it is setup to occur around the job schedule for that year. Though there would be a degree of flexibility in it. If the work schedule went out of schedule during the year.
    _____________________
    I will take pity on you.
    All I will say is that’s not how RDO’s work and leave it at that.
    ===================================================

    I really don’t care what terminology you want to use for their awarded holiday leave . What i do know they won a case to get 26 days of paid leave a year. If you want to call those days RDO’s as Badthinker did in the post i initially responded to in this thread, i’m not going to worry to much on the terminology . Though i’m quite happy to call them “26 paid days off a year” as CFMEU did when they won the case back in the year 2000.

    “In 2000 this branch of the CFMEU won the 36 hour week, giving workers 26 paid days off a year.”
    https://vic.cfmeu.org/your-union#:~:text=The%20union's%20successful%20bargaining%20campaigns,CFMEU%20never%20compromises%20on%20safety.

  15. TK

    I agree with the points you raised about America but add some notes of caution.

    I think it is dangerous to talk about USA as a generalisable whole because I think it no longer exists. In my experience travelling there over many years I see huge differences between states; more than the differences between neighbouring European countries.

    Part of the problem is that the USA is a natural gerrymander, with numerous small poorer midwest and southern states outnumbering a smaller number of larger, richer seaboard states where most of the wealth is created. Those small states each get two Senators, enabling them to outvote the seaboard states even if an election is perfectly run. And with no AEC the elections are far from perfect. Republicans can and do exploit this imbalance.

    The US badly needs electoral reform. Biden should have tried to get more Senators via making DC and Puerto Rico states as well as expanding the SC but didn’t.

    I still think the gerontocracy in the Democrats is a huge problem. Many aging Democrat leaders have clung to their belief in US democracy as it was, not as it is.

  16. Re Confessions @4:41. ”This seems to me to be the biggest intergenerational wealth gap in Australia.”

    Interesting point. The widening intergenerational wealth gap is definitely part of it. So are workplace changes, where many tradespeople transitioned from employees to small businesses.

  17. I still think the gerontocracy in the Democrats is a huge problem.

    Evidence being that a sitting Congresswoman from Texas has died in office aged 74.

    This rarely happens in Australia. We seem to retire our elected reps while they’re still reasonably vital and able to have a life beyond politics.

  18. While I don’t care that strongly one way or another about Pete Buttigieg, you’ll forgive me if I don’t really take the word of Jimmy Dore, a red to brown tankie conspiracy theorist, on this issue.

    Nor would I really take anything you say seriously either, Bad Thinker – especially not since last weekend when you happily and deliberately spread misinformation about the Trump shooter (often citing extremely biased right wing sources) to push your political narrative. Something you never retracted nor apologised for.

  19. Taylormadesays:
    Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 4:59 pm
    Entropysays:
    Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 2:59 pm
    The work calendar comes out yearly. So it is setup to occur around the job schedule for that year. Though there would be a degree of flexibility in it. If the work schedule went out of schedule during the year.
    _____________________
    I will take pity on you.
    All I will say is that’s not how RDO’s work and leave it at that.
    ======================================================

    Though clearly you have a poor understanding of the deal in question. In return for the deal, which gave them extra days off. Construction works gave building companies more flexibility in determining when those days are and the general working hours on site.

    Here is quote from the SMH on it:
    “The new deal allows Grocon to roster workers between 6am and 6pm and gives it greater control over the taking of the other 13 rostered days off to which building workers are already entitled.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/building-industry-split-over-36-hour-week-deal-20021116-gdftsp.html

    If you are actually interested in the facts. Which i suspect you are not, here is the actual award:
    https://library.fairwork.gov.au/award/?krn=AP790741

    By the way i don’t need your pity. Keep it for yourself, as the ignorant need it more than me.

  20. It’s really a choice between Harris and an open convention.

    If they have an open convention and say Whitmer wins – how do you introduce someone unknown outside of her state in under 4 months and convince people she is ready to be POTUS?

  21. Lars

    Yes, this is why the long time Biden is taking to decide to step down or not is disastrous for the Dems. It cuts into the time left to establish any new candidates.

    Like Ruth Bader Ginsberg in her later years, Biden is tarnishing his legacy with each passing day.

  22. Yes, this is why the long time Biden is taking to decide to step down or not is disastrous for the Dems. It cuts into the time left to establish any new candidates.

    Biden and AOC types appear to be leaning towards an open ‘mini’ convention.

    This would be disastrous for the reasons I’ve advocated previously, chiefly that it would expose Democrat divisions at a time when unity is required and how does anyone other than Harris get national campaign infrastructure up and running in the time needed to be competitive in the campaign?

  23. I think alot of people have forgotten how many attempts biden has made for the presidency, and how shit those attempts generally were.

    It’s not too surprising that he would be extremely reluctant to give up on it.

  24. I caught up with the Four Corners episode that profiles the USA campaign and Trump’s Project 2025 movement. This article is old but covers it well.
    https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/project-2025-the-policy-substance-behind-trumps-showmanship-reveals-a-radical-plan-to-reshape-the-world/

    Apart from the appalling threat to US democracy, the planned changes to foreign policy and tariffs are both major negatives for Australia. Labor had better have a plan B ready by November. AUKUS will move from unpopular retained policy nobody talks about to major vote loser after November assuming Trump wins.

  25. Joe Biden comes across as a rather selfish old man, who cares more about his own needs and that of his family more than the welfare of the Democratic Party and its candidates.
    If he refuses to budge, the likely loss in November is on his head, nobody else’s.
    Oh, and I think Pete Buttigieg is a terrific communicator, I would guess he’ll be used heavily in the post convention campaign to come, at least to generate some sort of excitement around Biden, assuming Biden and Harris stays as their ticket.

  26. While I don’t hold any grudges or contempt towards people who are rallying behind Biden (they’re entitled to their view and I am entitled to mine), the toxicity among some of their numbers – especially older centrists – is comparable to some of the more toxic elements of recent US political discourse and has pissed away a lot of goodwill they had. The sad part is how many are African American and claiming that not whole-heartedly supporting Biden, an older white guy, is in fact racist. I don’t like lecturing on the topic of race (I’m as white as mayo) but there’s a bit of crying wolf with that kind of shit and will make it harder in future to believe when (often legitimate) claims of racism among the left/liberal side of the spectrum are raised.

    Also, them insisting on calling it an attempted coup, when literally a real attempted coup – which many on the other side of politics are trying to downplay and trivialise – actually occurred just a few years ago is disgusting and harmful.

    While I am not a “tweeter” anymore. I have a lurking account I use to gauge general opinion on these kind of things. While I generally try to expose myself to many views, I do mute the stupid and toxic elements who don’t contribute anything and that option’s been getting a workout in the last couple of weeks among those aforementioned Biden supporters – some of whom have previously been voices I respected.

  27. This rarely happens in Australia. We seem to retire our elected reps while they’re still reasonably vital and able to have a life beyond politics.
    Congress is up for election every 2 years and the Pension Plan isn’t much good.
    they’re either defeated for reelection or die in office.
    A Judge retired a couple of years ago, aged 98, appointed by Truman [left office Jan. 1953].
    When Johnson first went to Washington, the elevator operator at the Capitol was a former congressman.

  28. The sad part is how many are African American and claiming that not whole-heartedly supporting Biden, an older white guy, is in fact racist. I don’t like lecturing on the topic of race (I’m as white as mayo) but there’s a bit of crying wolf with that kind of shit and will make it harder in future to believe when (often legitimate) claims of racism among the left/liberal side of the spectrum are raised.
    You’re the arbiter on the legitimacy of black claims of racism and you’re not likin’ what you see, huh?

  29. You can see the orchestration to get rid of Biden but you hope they have a plan for the day after he withdraws from the race.

    The easiest option is Harris but she may or may not be a disaster.

    Truman was regarded as a lightweight yet he ended up one of the more consequential presidents – so maybe she will rise to the occasion or maybe she’ll bomb badly before us labor day.

    Incredibly tough decisions to take atm mainly because they screwed up succession planning.

  30. Kirsdarke, I’ll just give the generic enabling reply to that:

    “Trump’s just being funny and purposely bombastic. He’s doing it to trigger the libs and it appears that he’s succeeded. This is just a persona – privately he’s more thoughtful. You’re just nit-picking, deflecting and both-siding because your guy’s a vegetable. There’s no point in criticising him anyway because his supporters are devoted and won’t budge.”

  31. Wat Tylersays:
    Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 6:40 pm
    It’s like being talked down to by a two year old.
    =============================================

    A two year old is capable of learning and improving themselves though. So fortunately will not retain this level of ignorance for long. While Badthinker on the other hand is likely to always remain as Badthinker.

  32. Article by one Timothy Snyder in the Financial Times today – entitled “The Republican blueprint for power contains secrets of its own demise” is quite alarming.
    In brief he contends that Republicans supporters kind of fall into three camps leading to the collapse of the US as we know it today – tyranny, oligarchy and anarchy.
    He claims the protagonist of these stands support them for highly selfish reasons, but, as he goes on to explain, they all all self-defeating as they are opposed to one another.
    The article is much too long and complex to repeat here, but the mere fact the author is supposing any one of the above or maybe all three, are on the cards with a Trump victory is very worrying indeed.
    We 27 million tucked away down the bottom of the world have about as much influence in this circus as we do in the Gaza debacle….next to none.

  33. Mavis,
    Glad you are enjoying the UK cartoons and other miscellany. I took over from Alpha Zero when the html links became a bit more tricky to embed on PB.

    And I definitely agree that the cartoons with fewer words are the best – the drawing itself provides the information provided.

  34. Scott 1 says Saturday, July 20, 2024 at 3:22 pm

    TK

    It’s a good example of the fundamentalist view of centrism. Not a good example of centrism. A true centrist would have gone for the Universal government intervention part.

    If Obama had there would be less people voting for the far right because they still can’t access dentists or doctors.

    If Obama had been able to get a universal medical insurance system through Congress he would have done so. It took a lot of effort, including arm twisting by people like Nancy Pelosi, to even get what they got through. There were a number of members of Congress who voted for that legislation knowing that they would lose office as a result, and did.

    Politics is about the art of the possible, it’s better to get some of what you want than none. And, Obamacare did make a huge difference to many people’s lives. Go listen to David Axelrod, he openly admits that he went into his office and wept after that legislation was passed. It made such a huge difference to his family.

    Many would argue that the Hawke/Keating Governments were the best Australia has had. They have certainly been the best in my lifetime. I would classify that as a “centralist” government. I really don’t get why people on the edge want to criticise the centre, although I have my suspicions.

  35. Truman did have political experience and being a 33rd degree Mason probably didn’t hurt.
    Nevertheless, by 1952 his popularity was in the tank and no one of substance was interested in running in his place.
    Harris has no appeal for blacks, so her place on the 2020 ticket is hard to work out, women and Dot Indians?

  36. Am beginning to understand why the CFMEU allegations came as such a shock to the average Labor supporter.
    A large component of the base such as your typical Public Servant and Academic etc, has no idea on what goes on out in the Private Sector.

  37. Tricot @ #2243 Saturday, July 20th, 2024 – 7:05 pm

    We 27 million tucked away down the bottom of the world have about as much influence in this circus as we do in the Gaza debacle….next to none.

    On my part, I’ve been trying all I can to notify my American friends about Project 2025, most of them in their mid-20’s and aren’t inclined to vote anyway. I’ve got through to a few of them, especially when they asked for details about putting immigrants in concentration camps and I had the information at hand in how they intend to do it.

    A few were skeptical and said it could never happen, my response to that was “Well, when Trump fires tens of thousands of government employees and replaces them with his asskissers, who’ll stop him then? The Supreme Court? They just made a judgement that Trump can rule like a King if he likes.” and that at least caught their attention.

  38. Thanks for a reply good discussion this afternoon, all. I have found it thoughtful and respectful, which is when this place is at its best.

    And I am impressed at those of the Bludgertariat who know that there I a real Scotsman out there.

  39. Wat Tyler @ #2239 Saturday, July 20th, 2024 – 6:52 pm

    Kirsdarke, I’ll just give the generic enabling reply to that:

    “Trump’s just being funny and purposely bombastic. He’s doing it to trigger the libs and it appears that he’s succeeded. This is just a persona – privately he’s more thoughtful. You’re just nit-picking, deflecting and both-siding because your guy’s a vegetable. There’s no point in criticising him anyway because his supporters are devoted and won’t budge.”

    At this stage Trump is “doing it” to avoid the legal dramas that are heading his way. His surrogates on the court can delay meaning a decision won’t be forthcoming until after the next election, but if he loses he will eventually face that justice.

    But if he wins the presidency he can essentially make his legal problems disappear.

  40. Moving day at Royal Troon. Tough course. Don’t miss the fairway. Reminds me of Port Fairy or Moonah Links.
    Break your wrist trying to chop out it out back into play.

  41. Many would argue that the Hawke/Keating Governments were the best Australia has had. They have certainly been the best in my lifetime. I would classify that as a “centralist” government. I really don’t get why people on the edge want to criticise the centre, although I have my suspicions.

    No one who lived the Hawke/Keating disaster believes that.
    Those fuckers put the handbrake on wages for 13 years, by the time they left it took 2 wage earners to afford one house.
    No, they weren’t Centrists. They were Socialist Governments, they took what little the poor had and gave it to their rich mates.

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