YouGov: 50-50 (open thread)

Labor takes a knock in a federal poll conducted in the days leading up to the budget.

Ahead of a looming avalanche of post-budget opinion polls, YouGov gets in with a poll whose field work period starting last Friday and ending on the day the budget was delivered on Tuesday. The result is the weakest for Labor out of ten polls since the series began in September, recording a dead heat on two-party preferred, erasing a 52-48 lead four weeks ago. The primary votes are Labor 30% (down three), Coalition 38% (up two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 8% (steady). Anthony Albanese’s approval rating is unchanged at 41% with disapproval up one to 53%, while Peter Dutton is up four on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 46-34 to 44-37.

The poll also features a question on issue salience which evidently allowed respondents to choose multiple issues they felt the government should focus on. This found housing affordability (up four to 36%) taking the lead over living standards (down three to 34%) since the question was last posed in November. Climate change was down seven points to 13%. A question on national direction finds wrong direction favoured over right direction by 61% to 39%. The sample for the poll was 1506.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

662 thoughts on “YouGov: 50-50 (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 14
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  1. Playing a “sport” unpaid is social recreation.
    Playing a “sport” for pay is labour.
    Profiting from other playing a sport is parasitic exploitation.
    Paying to watch paid sport being parasitised.

  2. Greg Norman is a grifter with flexible morals, just like his buddy, Donald Trump. He could have looked elsewhere for the money. Gina probably would have given it to him, seeing as how she is all about plastering her name all over any sport that she can.

  3. Watching the economic debates over the last week has been incredibly frustrating – Australians behmoan that we don’t make things, but winge when a credible plan is out there to change things.

    We really are a nation of “houses and holes”, houses for low income migrants and squeezing the last of our mining boom as our major customers age and eventually shrink. If today’s opponents of “future made in Australia” win, there will be no accountability for the declining living standards and higher inflation we will have in the future.

  4. Badthinker says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 10:24 am the fact remains that, for whatever reasons, Australia has been perceived as being hostile or unwelcoming for a long time.

    Given our very successful and well known policy of multi culturalism over the last half century or so this just doesn’t sound right to me. Evidence?

  5. meher babasays:
    Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 10:43 am
    Badthinker:
    …
    ————————————————————————-
    Well, that’s an extremely unusual perspective. The consensus among (mostly) left-leaning academics both here and abroad is that Australia is one of the most successful multicultural societies in human history, and that migrants have generally prospered here. The fact that some whinging Poms felt like they’d been sold a pup doesn’t reflect the general experience: and many of the whinging Poms who returned to Britain in a huff eventually came back when they realised how good things were here.
    Otto Niemeyer was an economist with BoE, was invited out by the Scullin Government, which was being refused Loans in London.
    He said that Australia was a poor country, many schemes promoted by various Governments had failed, and that British migrants of the time

    post WW1

    felt they’d been misled and didn’t receive promised assistance once they were here.

    As for the Dutch, the Census shows around 400,000 people of Dutch ancestry in Australia today, and that’s probably a significant underestimate given that around a third of Census respondents either nominate “Australian” as their ethnicity (which isn’t very helpful) or else opt not to identify their ancestry at all.
    The Dutch migrants post WW2 weren’t impressed.
    Plenty returned home or remigrated to North America.
    One issue that isn’t referenced, but i’ve heard firsthand, is that Food Quality in Austraia is very poor, even the Milk and Wheaties is of a poorer quality than that in Britain.

  6. People attending the Victoria ALP Conference have been met with scenes of violence as they tried to make their way into the Moonee Valley Racecourse.

    Protesters at a Pro-Palestine rally can be seen shoving and pushing people as they make their way through the crowd into the conference.

    Australia under federal labor!

    And the economy?

    Ben Dorber, the head of the ABS Retail Statistics, explained that with cost of living pressures high, consumers were pulling back on spending.

    It’s the weakest growth on record, he added, outside of the pandemic and introduction of GST, with retail turnover flat for the past six months.

  7. pp
    Protesters are angry. It is easy to see why. But violence during protests should be given short shrift.

    No, I don’t agree that protests like this are a result of the ALP. They are a result of a brutal war in the ME and democratic rights in Australia. We should welcome protests – even angry ones when the issue is as disturbing as this (mass murder of innocent lives – including those of Oct) . We should in fact celebrate them as a sign of a healthy system. But again, violent protest isn’t to be tolerated.

    ALP policy is a matter for them. If people don’t like the policy, then vote against them and/or protest against them. It isn’t an Officer Barbrady moment of ‘nothing to see here’. But it also isn’t a sign the sky has fallen down.

  8. Bystandersays:
    Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 11:46 am
    Badthinker says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 10:24 am the fact remains that, for whatever reasons, Australia has been perceived as being hostile or unwelcoming for a long time.

    Given our very successful and well known policy of multi culturalism over the last half century or so this just doesn’t sound right to me. Evidence?
    Evidence?
    There’s Otto Niemeyer’s evidence that British Migration Schemes of the Twenties had failed, then there’s the post WW2 Dutch experience.
    The policy at that time was Assimilation.
    Clearly, Assimilation wasn’t as so successful.
    Now the policy is Multiculturalism, which has been more successful.
    Yet even with Multiculturalism there are Peak Bodies today unhappy with their Australian experience.
    So, as I say, the fact remains that, for whatever reasons, Australia has been perceived as being hostile or unwelcoming for a long time.

  9. Badthinkersays:
    Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 11:46 am
    meher babasays:
    Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 10:43 am
    Badthinker:
    ==========================================================

    You have convinced me. Scullin and his policies should not be allowed to go to another election. Seeing as he died in 1953 this problem seems to have fixed itself.

  10. One issue that isn’t referenced, but i’ve heard firsthand, is that Food Quality in Austraia is very poor, even the Milk and Wheaties is of a poorer quality than that in Britain.

    Errr what?

  11. DN, let that one through to the keeper. I suspect even the keeper won’t get there and it is sailing over for 6 wides.

  12. Scenes of university students protesting is par for the course Fubar.
    What is the point of railing against it as an event?
    I suspect you were not quite old enough to see the anger of 20 year olds balloted to go and fight in Vietnam of whom (many were conscripts) over 500 did not come home. You know my views about defence but the corrupt Liberal government of the day (All the Way with LBJ stuff) sent young Aussies to fight in a totally immoral conflict – at least from an Oz point of view. Uni students were angry then, and they are angry now.
    I happen to agree that there is protest and protest but the young of today at the unis feel they have a just cause as did my generation back then.
    The fact that you are so pro-Israel colours your point of view?

  13. Yeah, err what?.
    Food quality in Australia is poor, no matter what interested parties might claim.
    You don’t have to go to Europe to find that out, New Zealand will do.

  14. Meanwhile fed labors besties china are:

    ‘Fattened’ for the slaughter: inside the brutal scam factories targeting you
    Chinese-run ‘scam universities’ across Southeast Asia are training enslaved workers how to fleece unsuspecting Australians out of their life savings. Inside their walls, a modern horror story is unfolding.

    There is no future made in Australia as long as China continues to flood the market with goods so cheap no other economy can compete.The Australian.

  15. Some commenters elsewhere say that Scullin’s

    expired 1931

    was the last one term Government and Albo hasn’t got it stacked against him the way Scullin had.
    What they don’t take into account, imo, is that Albo only won on the strength of Women’s anger over the

    wrongfully

    perceived cover up of the Higgins Scandal.
    To be blunt, the issue was a young woman was allegedly plied with large quantities of legopener to the point of unconsciousness and allegedly raped by someone she knew and assumed would behave like a human being.
    This struck a chord with Women

    I can’t imagine why

    and they replaced a successful Government with a bunch of loons.
    Here’s the problem for Albo:
    2 years in, and he still hasn’t said anything in support of what got him elected. Hasn’t even condemned it, something that wouldn’t cost Government a cent.

  16. @pied piper

    That’s who the Greens, LNP and their media supporters want us to buy our critical minerals and renewable generation, but I guess “Australia built on slavery” is not as catchy as “billions for billionaires”

  17. I doubt anyone other than the PIF could have broken the PGA of America’s grip on professional golf. The PGA don’t want to let go of their control, but they can’t overpower this challenge.

    But back to the game, the team format is a winner, imho. Love it.

    Crazy crazy stuff today re Scheffler.

  18. Badthinkersays:
    Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 11:59 am
    Bystandersays:
    Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 11:46 am
    Badthinker says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 10:24 am the fact remains that, for whatever reasons, Australia has been perceived as being hostile or unwelcoming for a long time.

    Given our very successful and well known policy of multi culturalism over the last half century or so this just doesn’t sound right to me. Evidence?
    Evidence?
    There’s Otto Niemeyer’s evidence that British Migration Schemes of the Twenties had failed, then there’s the post WW2 Dutch experience.
    The policy at that time was Assimilation.
    Clearly, Assimilation wasn’t as so successful.
    Now the policy is Multiculturalism, which has been more successful.
    Yet even with Multiculturalism there are Peak Bodies today unhappy with their Australian experience.
    So, as I say, the fact remains that, for whatever reasons, Australia has been perceived as being hostile or unwelcoming for a long time

    Badthinker
    Thank you for your response. I haven’t got time to push the point today. Suffice to say that I’m not convinced that the evidence you have given is sufficient to sustain your conclusion.

  19. Protesters are angry. It is easy to see why. But violence during protests should be given short shrift.

    Yeah the professional anarchists who hijack all range of protests and rallies I have no time for at all.

  20. Bystandersays:
    Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 12:32 pm
    Badthinkersays:
    Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 11:59 am
    Bystandersays:
    Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 11:46 am
    Badthinker says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 10:24 am the fact remains that, for whatever reasons, Australia has been perceived as being hostile or unwelcoming for a long time.

    Given our very successful and well known policy of multi culturalism over the last half century or so this just doesn’t sound right to me. Evidence?
    Evidence?
    There’s Otto Niemeyer’s evidence that British Migration Schemes of the Twenties had failed, then there’s the post WW2 Dutch experience.
    The policy at that time was Assimilation.
    Clearly, Assimilation wasn’t as so successful.
    Now the policy is Multiculturalism, which has been more successful.
    Yet even with Multiculturalism there are Peak Bodies today unhappy with their Australian experience.
    So, as I say, the fact remains that, for whatever reasons, Australia has been perceived as being hostile or unwelcoming for a long time

    Badthinker
    Thank you for your response. I haven’t got time to push the point today. Suffice to say that I’m not convinced that the evidence you have given is sufficient to sustain your conclusion.
    ==================================================

    That’s a little unfair. If we were still in the 1930’s some of his arguments may have some merit. Unfortunately for him most of us know we are in the 2020’s though. While even the LNP have moved on to the 1950’s.

  21. Bridget Ziegler, the founder of the far-right, anti-gay Moms for Liberty group, sent out her husband, Florida GOP chairman Christian Ziegler, to bars to find women to bring home for sex, police documents reveal. According to The Daily Beast, “Text messages quoted in a Sarasota Police Department (SPD) memo that was obtained by the Sarasota Herald-Tribune revealed how Ziegler sent her husband, Christian, hunting for a third sexual partner at local bars and directed him to send photos of possible hits. She allegedly told him to pretend to take pictures of his beer while photographing the women so he wouldn’t get caught sneaking pictures of them.”
    The report said that Bridget allegedly told her husband, “Don’t come home until your d— is wet.”
    “The Zieglers, a local power couple in Florida Republican politics, were at the center of a sex abuse scandal after a woman alleged that Christian had raped her while she was involved in a three-way relationship with the pair,” the report continued. “They were both ousted from their respective positions at the Florida GOP and the conservative Leadership Institute … Bridget Ziegler also faced a barrage of attacks for her ‘hypocrisy,’ since she had taken a very public anti-LGBTQ+ stance but had engaged in sexual relationships with women.”
    Christian Ziegler, for his part, demanded a huge payout to resign as chief of the Florida Republicans. Ultimately, however, no charges were filed as a result of the rape allegation.

  22. The number of taxpayers in the highest income bracket has almost doubled in five years, despite the top threshold being lifted by $10,000 next year, leaving the wealthiest Australian workers paying a much greater share of tax than before the three-stage ­reforms began.
    About one million people will pay the top tax rate of 45c in 2024-25, with the share of workers in this bracket rising from 4.4 per cent in 2019-20 to 7.4 per cent.
    The analysis from Ben Phillips at the ANU’s Centre for Social Research and Methods shows greater numbers of Australians being forced into the highest tax bracket even though the top marginal rate will kick in at $190,000 instead of $180,000 under the July 1 changes. These workers will contribute 36.9 per cent in 2024-25 – a marked increase on the 31.6 per cent they contributed in 2019-20.
    Professor Phillips told The Weekend Australian: “It’s quite clear that in spite of the tax cuts in July, the share of tax paid by high-income earners remains very high and a highly progressive tax system remains in place.”
    With tax from individuals forecast to be 46.7 per cent of all government receipts – rising to 49 per cent in 2027-28 – the one million workers in the top tax bracket will contribute $1 out of every $6 that goes into government coffers next year. All taxes and non-tax receipts are forecast to total $698.4bn.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/one-million-workers-to-be-captured-by-top-tax-bracket-in-202425/news-story/6baab3b32068080f45ef2b3e3b67566b?amp

  23. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 12:47 pm
    Bridget Ziegler, the founder of the far-right, anti-gay Moms for Liberty group, sent out her husband, Florida GOP chairman Christian Ziegler, to bars to find women to bring home for sex, police documents reveal.
    =====================================================

    Looks like Trump may have a running mate for the upcoming election?. She seems to be the female embodiment of Trump’s morality. So would be perfect as his running mate you would think.

  24. rhwombat says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 11:24 am

    Profiting from other playing a sport is parasitic exploitation.

    WTF?

    Change the word sport for music or acting – are they also parasitic exploitation?

    Professional sports is an entertainment business. Being a profit making business doesn’t make them parasitic exploiters.

  25. Whenever you get mass movements of humans there will be a disjunct between individual lived experiences and government policy.

    There will also be disjuncts between what governments promise will happen and what actually happens. This is normal.

    Post WW2 Australia was desperate to build Australia’s population.

    When migrants bumped into the locals there were bound to be tensions. We should remember that Australia was remarkably insular, culturally, before WW2. So the tensions were normal.

    But there were also great kindnesses some of which are now part of our family lore.

    We dutch migrants bumped into some genuinely nasty arseholes. But then again, some of the migrants, ditto.

    Nor should we forget that adults arriving in the 1950’s had grown up in the great depression, suffered years of trauma during WW2 and were moving to the far side of the world at a time when you had to book an o/s phone call two weeks ahead. It was before you could hop on a plane be in the home country within 24 hours. No instant hit of social media.

    The vast majority of anglophone aussies were fine in my lived experience.

    The proportion of dutch migrant second gen out-marriages was enormous. I my extended family it was over 90%.

    We’re all aussies now.

  26. If YouGov had a 30% Labor primary, what are the chances at least one of the polls in the coming weeks is sub 30?

    The obvious question is if Team Albo is doing so well – why the erosion in support and standing?

  27. It needs to be said that many of Albo’s current underperforming cabinet are hangers on from the Rudd-Gillard- Rudd years. There are too many Labor MPs with potential who are being wasted by not being in cabinet. Time for some generational change.

  28. One million workers now in top tax bracket
    Labor’s stage three tax revamp will fail to stop Australians in the highest income tax bracket rising to about one million people, with the share of workers in this bracket rising to 7.4 per cent.

    Must be getting plenty of pay rises then. The Coalition dont believe in pay rises. However Labor will get fuck all credit as usual.

  29. LNP will do well to reinstate the Stage 3 tax cuts that ALP took away. Keep reducing tax rates and brackets. The flatter the better.

  30. Tricot says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 12:06 pm

    I suspect you were not quite old enough to see the anger of 20 year olds balloted to go and fight in Vietnam of whom (many were conscripts) over 500 did not come home. You know my views about defence but the corrupt Liberal government of the day (All the Way with LBJ stuff) sent young Aussies to fight in a totally immoral conflict – at least from an Oz point of view. Uni students were angry then, and they are angry now.

    ________________________________

    And we now see a repeat with young Aussies being conscripted by the government to go and kill Palestinians in Gaza at the behest of Joe Biden. No wonder they are angry.

  31. S. Simpson says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 1:05 pm

    Why not appoint some their favourite people – the Teals – to the Cabinet. We all know how wonderful they are. Shame to waste them achieving nothing.

  32. Reinstate tax cuts for the rich? Dutton giving tax cuts to millionaires and billionaires. Who would have thought it?

  33. TPOF says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 1:13 pm

    They’re whining poodlefakers. If they want to protest about something do it about something they can fix – like the massive DV rates in the ATSI community, the terrible dates of school attendance at remote schools. The drunk and drugged sleeping in the streets and assaulting each other and passers by. Go and set up camp in those communities and make a difference.

  34. LNP will do well to reinstate the Stage 3 tax cuts that ALP took away. Keep reducing tax rates and brackets. The flatter the better.
    ————————————
    Ha! I see what you did there. A 5star stir.

  35. steve davis says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 1:14 pm

    The ALP already has done it, so they haven’t got a leg to stand on criticising it on that basis. It’s just the LNP sticking to its policy.

    You f#%^rs thought going after the “rich” for their Franking Credits was an easy culture war win. How’d that work out for you?

  36. 46% of the electorate now vote either Coalition or One Nation as their first preference. More than Labor and Greens combined.

    Sums up the mood of the nation.

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