As noted in the previous post, budget week means a calm before the following week’s storm in federal opinion polling. However, there is the following:
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 52-48 for the fourth week in a row, though the stability is down to variable respondent-allocated preference flows, as the latest result has Labor up two points on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition steady on 37%, the Greens up half a point to 13.5% and One Nation down half a point to 5.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1654.
• The latest SECNewgate Mood of the Nation issue salience survey records 21% of respondents mentioning crime when asked without prompting about “the main issues facing Australians that are most important to you right now”, compared with 10% in the February survey, with cost of living continuing to dominate with 69% followed by housing affordability on 36%. A forced response question on national direction finds wrong direction favoured over right direction by 63% to 37%, out from 44% to 56% in February. Thirty-one per cent rate the federal government’s performance excellent, very good or good, down from 34% in February, while fair, poor or very poor is up two to 66%.
Preselection news:
• High-profile former state MP Kate Jones is reportedly in contention to take second position on Labor’s Queensland Senate ticket, which represents a vacancy because the party failed to win a second seat in 2019. Jones served in cabinet in the Bligh and Palaszczuk governments and held the seat of Ashgrove and its successor Cooper from 2006 to 2020, outside of an interruption when she lost it to Campbell Newman in 2012 before recovering it in 2015. She stepped aside from a position at a lobbying firm in March amid an ongoing controversy over the state government’s relationship with lobbyists, and is now an Australian Rugby League commissioner and executive director at the Tech Council of Australia. The idea is being promoted by Gary Bullock, Left faction figurehead and state secretary of the United Workers Union, and would disturb an arrangement in which the top position has gone to a candidate of the Left, in this case incumbent Nita Green, and the second to the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. The Australian reports Jenny Hill, former mayor of Townsville and a member of the Right, will also nominate, and that she may be joined by factional colleague Corinne Mulholland, former candidate for Petrie and now in-house lobbyist for Star casinos.
• InDaily reports there are two contenders in the mix for Liberal preselection in the South Australian seat of Mayo, which Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance has held since 2018. “Outspoken” Adelaide councillor Henry Davis has confirmed his interest, but a party source is quoted saying both moderate and conservative factions were looking for someone “more competitive”. That might mean Rowan Mumford, conservative-aligned state party president and unsuccessful candidate for Kavel at the March 2022 state election.
• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports Labor’s candidate to recover the Brisbane seat of Griffith, which Terri Butler lost to Max Chandler-Mather of the Greens in 2022, is likely to be Renée Coffey, chief executive of Kookaburra Kids, a foundation that helps children whose parents have a mental illness. Coffey is reportedly aligned with the Old Guard faction, which was once counted as a subset of the Right but now lines up with a dominant Left.
https://x.com/jonkudelka/status/1790194620007334343?s=61&t=uOUOuQOvbsFUiiFQcfJvhQ, nobody left behind, whose that, nobody
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/cartoon/2023/05/06
🙁
Holdenhillbilly @ #49 Tuesday, May 14th, 2024 – 11:39 am
Important to note JLN threw their 3 votes towards Labor’s candidate. The previous Liberal Speak was put up again, but had been widely panned as being like a Brown Bishop clone in his partisanship approach to the role.
What does it mean for the floor of the parliament. You need 18 votes for a clear majority in the 35 seat house, with the Speaker casting the deciding vote. Libs plus JLN get to 17. So it would be feasible for a bill to get up from the cross and opposition benches with the Speaker casting the decision vote. I think I am correct in saying that none of the crossbench, other than JLN who are chimera, could be called right leaning.
The Greens have returned from the break riled up and ready to oppose the elected government’s program…
The Greens will also be moving in the lower house and Senate for parliament to reject the government’s gas strategy and keeping coal and gas past 2050. They say supporting this is the test for Labor MPs who expressed concern about the gas strategy.
There’s still a standoff with Labor on the offshore gas bill, with the Greens warning they won’t allow the fuel efficiency standards to proceed unless the section fast-tracking offshore gas is removed.
The Greens are also expecting that Senate amendments to increase the asset write-off threshold from $20,000 to $30,000 will be rejected by the lower house, but the Senate will insist on them – meaning this previous Labor budget measure won’t pass.
There are question marks over the deportation bill, after the Coalition called for a suite of amendments. The Greens note that without a deal with the Coalition, there is no guarantee the bill will come to a vote this week.
We understand the bill is also being discussed by the Coalition party room this morning. We’re working out what they’ll do if Labor say no to their amendments.
Also note that Premier Rockliff did not put the speakership to a vote, ie the Liberal Party withdrew their candidate. Once he knew he didnt have the numbers the last thing he’d have wanted was to lose the very first vote of the new parliament.
O no sprocket… the greens (also elected) are doing exactly what their voters want them to do…
I see that the Greens are making the perfect the enemy of the good again.
This time the Coalition’s ICE clunkers are getting a reprieve thanks to the Adam Bandt Greens.
As previously noted, Giggle Gaggle Governance with Stuntorama Greens wannabes has its costs.
Inability to elect the speaker is usually considered one of the two things certain to bring a government down (the other being failure to pass appropriation bills without amendment).
Just when you thought politics in Tasmania couldn’t get any weirder.
Considering the Gas strategy plans for the end of coal, that makes the Greens now… Supporters of coal?
GLW newsletter
“In the days and weeks leading up to May 14, leaks about economic data and “new” measures are drip fed to the media, to sell a familiar message that the government will try its best to ease our pain and concerns, while remaining “economically responsible”.
The latest budget is no different, except Labor has to go to a federal election by September 27 next year.
Whether Labor or the Coalition, we get the same basic budget soft sell — an attempt to placate us while offering “choices” that fundamentally serve the corporate rich.
The government would have had even more revenue if it did not let the multinational gas corporations get away with paying ridiculously low taxes through the shonky Petroleum Resources Tax (PRT).
The PRT brings in less and less income, even as gas companies are cashing in on the wars in Ukraine and Palestine to make super-profits, as Greg Jericho from The Australian Institute (TAI) reported.
The volume of Australia’s liquefied natural gas exports has risen seven-fold since 2006. But the total tax paid on every $100 of revenue by gas corporations has been reduced more than four-fold, to less than than collected in a year in HECS/HELP student debts.
Ecosocialism 2024
One pre-budget leak is the supposed $3 billion reduction of the $74 billion owed in student debts, by rejigging the way they are indexed.
This won’t wipe student debt, but only offset some of last year’s massive 7.1% rise. Last June, workers with student debts, already struggling with record rents or home mortgage repayments, received a big slug.
Real median wages are still lower than 12 years ago because employers, with the backing of the Reserve Bank of Australia and Coalition and Labor governments, have forced wage restraint even while profits have been well above the historical average.
Last year’s shock rise in student debt was based on the official inflation rate, which has since dropped to 3.6%.
However, the actual cost of living for workers rose by 6.5% over the same period.
While the employed have suffered, those without jobs have suffered even more, since the JobSeeker payment is well below the poverty line. It is currently at just 70% of the Age Pension — which is only just above the poverty line for those who own their home.
The Australian Council of Social Services wants JobSeeker to be raised to 90% of the Age Pension, a measure that TAI estimates would cost $4.6 billion.
This is dwarfed by the $12.7 billion the richest 10% of the population gain each year from capital gains tax discounts, the $8.6 billion they gain from superannuation tax concessions and the more than $13 billion they gain from negative gearing.
Raising JobSeeker will also make a big contribution to addressing the family and domestic violence epidemic facing women, according to a May 6 open letter by 200 women leaders.
It would lift go some way way to lift about half a million women out of poverty, giving them the means to leave violent partners.
While Labor has promised more funding in the budget for women facing family and domestic violence, the measures already announced are totally inadequate.
Meanwhile, Labor has committed to even more military spending, as it enmeshes Australia even more into the United States-led war drive against China, ironically the source of Australia’s revenue boom.
Military spending is to rise from just under 2% to 2.4% of gross domestic product by 2032–33, even before the payments for the $368 billion AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine deal begin.
This is a grossly irresponsible misspend given the unprecedented climate, cost-of-living and housing crises.”
…
Lordbainsays:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 11:18 am
I’m glad to hear australian gas is less polluting then other sources of gas. Maybe we should give it a nifty name… like Green gas! I mean, it’s not like others have tried to justify expanding fossil fuel exploitation by calling it green…
______________________________________
You just need to add some copper.
Yep, that sums up Albanese Labor, VCT Et3e.
Goodness, NYTs poll. Man, it is extraordinary how unpopular Biden is in these polls. Take Nevada, Biden behind by 13pts. But the Democrat Senator is Evens. A similar story in Arizona (although Biden is closer there) – which is very interesting as the GOP senate candidate is very much in the Trump camp.
I really really want to believe something weird is going on with NYT polling. Or…. hoping that peoples dislike for Biden subsides come crunch time. But I am ‘believing’ and ‘hoping’ less and less as each month rolls by. Surely by now people will have started to focus on what is actually at stake rather than answering polls based on job approval (not that Biden has done a bad job ffs!).
174 days to go.
Goll @ 10.58 yes I was being a little cheeky although I do think this government is getting the economic/social balance pretty good. Re the last Howard government they did go too far right for my liking.
Mostly Interestedsays:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 8:02 am
Taylormade @ #1033 Monday, May 13th, 2024 – 10:16 pm
Bystander
Unless Entropy and Mostly Interested are on the Financial Advisors register you should tread carefully.
From previous thread.
You are correct. In fact if it wasn’t for the desire to have readily available funds then I’d probably just roll that cash into my super.
================================================
Bystander asked for opinion, no specific advice was given though. Yes you should do you own due diligence. This also includes when using a registered Financial Advisor too. Even when you pay for the advice it is not a guarantee of its reliability. Particularly check if the Financial Adviser could be getting a fee from the company they advise you to put your money into. This is generally a huge warning sign.
Former military lawyer David McBride has been sentenced to five years and eight months in jail for sharing classified military documents with journalists. McBride pleaded guilty to three charges, including theft and sharing more than 200 documents classified as secret, with members of the press.
ACT Supreme Court Justice David Mossop rejected McBride’s case that he did not believe he was breaking the law, and found the offences were aggravated by his high-security rating, which gave him access to the material. He said McBride seemed to have become obsessed with the correctness of his own opinions.
Justice Mossop did accept that McBride’s mental health, which included PTSD, may have had a minor contribution to the offending. The material released by McBride was used in the ABC’s The Afghan Files story, which revealed allegations that Australian soldiers were involved in illegal killings.
During a sentencing hearing earlier this month, prosecutors said McBride had copied the material, loaded it into a backpack and taken it home, over a long period of time. The court was told the documents were stored in plastic bins in his cupboard, before being handed to journalists in a plastic bag for them to copy.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-14/military-whistleblower-david-mcbride-sentenced-classified-info/103843314
I see that those made a lifetime investment decision to get a superior income based on their qualifications plus a HECs loan are still angling for those who made a lifetime investment decision to accept a lower income but without qualifications and without a HECs debt are STILL trying to force the latter to pay for the former.
Disgraceful Greens inner urban leafy green middle class welfare at its sordid worst.
Boer lecturing on middle class welfare – bit rich for a lifetime defined benefit indexed pension recipient to provide these type of sermons.
TK
NYT/Sienna appears an outlier. Simon Rosenberg has this observation..
The big either insight or outlier/mistake in the NYT polls are the findings of Biden erosion with young people and voters of color throughout the battleground. Let’s compare the NYT results with 18-29 year olds with two other recent large sample national polls, Biden-Trump:
NYT
30%-31% Trump up 1
Harvard/IOP
56%-37% Biden up 19
Pew
59%-38% Biden up 21
Simply, the NYT finds an electorate much more Republican than many other recent polls, and its youth numbers are very much at odds with recent large sample, high quality polls. Could the NYT be right? Sure, of course it could. But to me, right now, these polls feel far more like outliers than a north star.
Good to see Albo finally coming out against the antisemitism which is currently oozing out of our university campuses, especially the chants of “From the river to the sea”. You don’t have to be very bright to know that that means the total elimination of the Jews. Those kinds of sentiments have no place in this country.
Bystander says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 12:34 pm
Good to see Albo finally coming out against the antisemitism which is currently oozing out of our university campuses, especially the chants of “From the river to the sea”
….’
——————–
Well…
‘from the river to the sea’ is specified in the relevant Likud official policy document.
Disgusting.
Agree Bystander. It’s what drives the Jewish persecution complex and results in their overreaching. Not sure there is any answer to it though.
Thanks to those who have cautioned me about the potential perils of the stock market. I certainly won’t be jumping in without carefully weighing up the pros and cons.
Shame on the establishment.
Badthinker: “In Brisbane, the Murdoch Press always support Labor.”
I think I’m on another planet with you … 🙂
Has Albo called the protesters ‘deplorables’ yet …?
So the first person to be jailed over the war crimes committed by our forces in Afghanistan is…… the whistleblower who reported them. Nearly 6 years Jail……..
Mark Dreyfus could have stopped this nonsense at any point, and even now could commute the sentence. If he chooses not to, then the ALP quite simply believe that this conviction and sentence is reasonable, and now own this.
I’ll use BW logic – the ALP support war crimes (or at least covering them up)!
Boerwar
“Boer lecturing on middle class welfare – bit rich for a lifetime defined benefit indexed pension recipient to provide these type of sermons.”
Based on LVT’s comment, congratulations on having the wisdom and foresight to stay on a lifetime defined benefit indexed pension. My only regret is that I had to give mine up when moving state to SA to take up a job here. (Had to quite Qld State PS job).
The only critics are the jealous ones. I note LVT did not call your comments “incorrect”.
sprocket_,
Exactly. NYT polls are tilted towards Trump, they said so in their own article about the poll!
They also said that President Biden’s path to victory, though narrow, is through Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Not bleedin’ Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. They will be nice if he picks them up as well but, as Frank Luntz said, Biden needs to just go live in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania until the election.
Team Katich, you need to stop sweating the small stuff!
Hey Pageboi, don’t forget that Labor now supports unmitigated climate change
Rex Douglas and another mile wide,inch deep snark about the PM. Yawn.
The sentence on McBride is harsh. My own attitude to his case changed after seeing the recent story where it became clear that he was a whistleblower defending those alleged to have committed war crimes, not exposing them. McBride was not a shining knight. But six years is tough on somebody 50-something.
Nevertheless, justice should apply to all or it is not just. So I hope the cases against the accused soldiers get underway soon, and arguably disciplining of their failed senior commanders.
If the trials do not happen soon, politically this sentence will take on an unpleasant smell.
Bystandersays:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 12:39 pm
Thanks to those who have cautioned me about the potential perils of the stock market. I certainly won’t be jumping in without carefully weighing up the pros and cons.
_____________________
Stay away from anything in the renewables space.
There are a lot of shonks out there.
Soft cap on international student numbers says labor that’s no surprise as we have soft borders under labor.
Not serious in fixing either of these issues.
Qantas has stopped the Sydney to Shanghai route due to low demand.
Keven Rudd summed up the situation nicely.Rat F—ckers! OH dear.
Has anyone seen Dutton lately?
In a terrific spirit of bipartisan camaraderie, LNP Senator Jane Hume has offered her congratulations to Treasurer Jim Chalmers for getting the budget back in the black.
“Well played, Jim. You succeeded where we failed for nine years straight.”
“But this doesn’t mean the debt we left you is gone. At this rate, it will take Labor another 60 years to pay it off.”
Just on that David, TPOF made a comment a day or so ago to the effect that Netanyahu is acting in the belief that if the Jews are going to meet this challenge they will need to do it alone. Nobody else is interested; and the way the rest of the world is currently behaving suggests that he is probably right.
Blowing the whistle on ADF brass for their grossly incompetent management of those under their care & command should not be a crime.
Crikery has an excellent review of the Gospel According to Scomo.
“Crikey
@crikey_news
“What distressed me as I read Plans For Your Good was Morrison’s incessant use of his faith to deflect political accountability,” writes Catriona Menzies-Pike in this brilliant review of the ex-PM’s memoir.”
https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/05/14/scott-morrison-memoir-review-plans-for-your-good/
Soc: “But this doesn’t mean the debt we left you is gone. At this rate, it will take Labor another 60 years to pay it off.”
#TrillionInVermillion
ScoMo is in the elite class of grifter, up there with Trump.
‘PageBoi says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 12:50 pm
So the first person to be jailed over the war crimes committed by our forces in Afghanistan is…… the whistleblower who reported them. Nearly 6 years Jail……..
Mark Dreyfus could have stopped this nonsense at any point, and even now could commute the sentence. If he chooses not to, then the ALP quite simply believe that this conviction and sentence is reasonable, and now own this.
I’ll use BW logic – the ALP support war crimes (or at least covering them up)!’
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One of the more disgusting anti-Labor slagging efforts for the day.
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 12:29 pm
I see that those made a lifetime investment decision to get a superior income based on their qualifications plus a HECs loan are still angling for those who made a lifetime investment decision to accept a lower income but without qualifications and without a HECs debt are STILL trying to force the latter to pay for the former.
————
Poor Boerwar, more fact free opinions
o bviously worried The Greens are going to take more Labor seats. Likely with Labor’s many Liberal policies. Let’s hope so.
Labor and Liberal governments punishing many young students at Uni with HECs debts they may take decades to repay (not all, especially women will earn a high salary) and who may never own their own home, should be ashamed.
Especially when many MPs in this government had low or non existent fees when attending Uni.
And we have the resources to pay for their studies fully, like Norway, but the Albanese government refuses to tax their favourite fossil fuel companies, like gas. Who give big donations to the Labor Party.
Shameful.
Remember Morrison lost the last election. Labor is doing its best to turn many voters away.
Vote Labor – get Liberal policies.
‘Socrates says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 1:01 pm
‘…. My own attitude to his case changed after seeing the recent story where it became clear that he was a whistleblower defending those alleged to have committed war crimes, not exposing them. McBride was not a shining knight. ….’
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So, the Greens have got it back-to-front and upside down and are slagging Labor on that basis.
That said, anyone who stores Top Secret documents in a garage or in a bathroom deserves to be POTUS.
‘Irene says:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 1:28 pm
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 12:29 pm
I see that those made a lifetime investment decision to get a superior income based on their qualifications plus a HECs loan are still angling for those who made a lifetime investment decision to accept a lower income but without qualifications and without a HECs debt are STILL trying to force the latter to pay for the former.
————
Poor Boerwar, obviously worried The Greens are going to take more Labor seats. Let’s hope so.
Labor and Liberal governments punishing many young students at Uni with HECs debts they may take decades to repay (not all, especially women will earn a high salary) and who may never own their own home, should be ashamed.
Especially when many MPs in this government had low or non existent fees to attend Uni.
And we have the resources to pay for their studies fully, like Norway, but the Albanese government refuses to tax their favourite fossil fuel companies, like gas. Who give big donations to the Labor Party.
Shameful.
Remember Morrison lost the last election. Labor is doing its best to turn many voters away.’
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Irene and the Greens want to punish poorer Australians by making them subsidize wealthier Australians. No shame.
Anyone who volunteers for combat with the ADF is the type of person that needs extra mental health guidance and support from their commanders. Clearly McBride saw that was lacking and blew the whistle. Gets punished with imprisonment by the establishment.
Taylormade @ #83 Tuesday, May 14th, 2024 – 1:02 pm
Look I know you’re trolling, but it isnt the worst advice ever. But maybe lets just broaden that out. I wouldnt suggest investing in any single company. I’d look at investing in indexed based share packages.
ETFs or “exchange-traded funds” are exactly as the name implies: funds that trade on exchanges, generally tracking a specific index. When you invest in an ETF, you get a bundle of assets you can buy and sell during market hours—potentially lowering your risk and exposure, while helping to diversify your portfolio.
Then only put into the share market what you can afford. I put in $75 a week, the price of a slab of beer. I dont drink, and it’s what I can afford. Advice around watching it daily, or just walking away and checking in ever 6 to 12 months I’ll leave to others. But from what I have been taught, the stock market is a long term investment.
@Taylormade, this last bit is for you. When I did my MBA a bunch of the guys there decided they’d do a side hustle. It was advice called ‘unethical investment advice’. Basically they looked at every unethical industry they could find and then assessed companies and built their own EFT. Stuff like oil drilling, cigarette(vape) companies, etc. yes it did quite well.
‘Standing Alone’ is a reprise of the ‘Masada Complex’.
If genocide is your vision and your enemies have the same vision you end up in some pretty unhappy and desperate places.
That said, those who think that Israel depends for its survival on US munitions do not understand that Israel has the fourth largest military industrial complex in the world.
Why didn’t the brass withdraw a clearly unfit BRS from the field before it got out of hand ?
Rex Douglassays:
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 1:16 pm
Blowing the whistle on ADF brass for their grossly incompetent management of those under their care & command should not be a crime.
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6 years imprisonment for David McBride shows how corrupt the Labor Party is. The military, as with Julian Assange’s continual imprisonment, must be protected at all costs by Labor.
Whistleblowers aren’t wanted in corrupt Australia. Let’s hope voters will be shocked and take their vote away from Labor.
The only way Labor will learn to work for its citizens. Not the military heads or business as a priority.