Next week being budget week, we’re likely to see little in the way of polling beyond the usual Roy Morgan, followed by a deluge the week after as the main players to take the field to gauge the public’s response. For now, there’s the following:
• YouGov has published a further result from its April 19-23 survey showing 35% support for Australia recognising Palestine as an independent state with 27% opposed and 44% unsure, with Greens supporters the most enthusiastic and One Nation supporters the least.
• The Australian Electoral Commission, which hitherto offered only the second quarter as the time when the proposed redistributions for New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia would be published, is now saying “late May/early June”. I’ve also noticed for the first time that a redistribution process for the Northern Territory began in late February. With 81,170 voters presently enrolled in Lingiari and 72,748 in Solomon, this is likely to involve a transfer of voters in Palmerston from the latter to the former. This will be welcome for Labor, as the loss of this conservative-voting area will boost their 0.9% margin in Lingiari while reducing their 9.4% margin in Solomon.
• The Liberals have announced Brendan Small, managing director of a local cleaning products firm, as candidate for the New South Wales Central Coast seat of Dobell, held for Labor by Emma McBride on a margin of 6.5%.
• Weeks after I’d forgotten about it, an advisory from the AEC that they are about to archive their Cook by-election media feed prompted me to update my own results page with what are the definitive final results. Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy scored 62.7% of the primary vote, winning at the final count ahead of the Greens with 71.3%.
• The Nationals have preselected Brendan Moylan, a Moree solicitor, as their candidate for the New South Wales state by-election for Northern Tablelands, the date for which the government appears in no hurry to announce. The by-election will choose a successor to Nationals member Adam Marshall, who was re-elected last year with 71.6% of the primary vote and is abandoning state politics at the age of 39, with media reports suggesting he hopes to succeed Barnaby Joyce in New England.
Catprog
That is $5 billion worth of economic activity foregone. It just won’t happen.
Excellent; I’m glad future generations have such a comprehensive list as to why the current generations in power didn’t bother doing what was needed to limit the damage of anthro climate change – we would have loved to do what was needed, but we would have had to pay a price. So now you guys get to pay even more…
Former Fremantle Docker Cam McCarthy has died at the age of 29. It is understood paramedics and police were called to Lake Coogee, in Perth’s south, about 6.15pm on Thursday. “Upon arrival, it was confirmed a 29-year-old male was deceased,” police said. “The death is being treated as non-suspicious. “A report will be prepared for the coroner.”
Boerwar @ #97 Friday, May 10th, 2024 – 12:16 pm
Stupid posts will do that.
The back of the envelope figures are pretty big.
This is before we even begin any transition costs.
It looks at money in and money out including the cost of paying jobkeeper to those who lose their jobs.
Say $120 billion loss in fossil fuel export earnings.
Say loss of royalties of around $27 billion.
Say plus $12 billion subsidies.
Say a loss of 50,000 direct jobs @ say $150,000 per annum = loss of $7.5 billion.
Say a multiplier loss of an additional 100,000 jobs @ say $90,000 per annum = loss of $9 billion.
Foreign capital investment foregone. Lumpy. Say loss of $5 billion per annum.
150,000 additional job keeper @ say $45,000 per annum ($39,000 + various oncosts) = cost to budget of $6.75 billion per annum.
Cattle-related exports per annum in exports. loss of $12 billion per annum.
Jobs lost: around 430,000 workers. Jobkeeper @ say $45,000 per annum = cost to budget of $19.3 billion per annum.
Sheep related exports, say a loss of around $5 billion per annum.
Cattle-related exports per annum in exports. loss of $12 billion per annum.
Jobs lost: around 430,000 workers. Jobkeeper @ say $45,000 per annum = cost to budget of $19.3 billion per annum.
Then there's the Domestic Cattle & Sheep industries.
What are vthe losses there?
That leads on to Beef and Lamb/Sheepmeat/Tallow Imports.
Those beasts have got to be grazed on some part of this blue bioshere we call Earth, so where;s the saving on Emissions there?
Badthinker
You need to take that up to the Beef industry which this week signaled that it could not deliver on zero net fifty.
Very sad regarding the former Fremantle player.
Fremantle have had a few of these to deal with in past few years.
Are federal Labor handing out bonuses to families to have children
Cos that is what Costello and co did
Hadn’t realised the issue with Gorgon/Barrow Is. was that these maniacs are pumping CO2 into a reservoir.
Just insane.
And Chalmers is ruling baby bonus out
https://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2024/05/09/the_un_should_not_reward_the_palestinians_for_oct_7th_1030725.html
Let’s see which way ‘Tel Aviv … Albo’ goes, for/ abstain/ against?
Lordbain @ #93 Friday, May 10th, 2024 – 12:09 pm
There are estimates that the Lismore floods cost $10b. Maybe 3-5 of these events a year?
Yes P1, I hear your point about deaths.
Granny Annie
No government revenue, be it tax, duty or excise, is dedicated to a particular expenditure item. That’s a furphy. It all goes into consolidated revenue, as it should.
That justification just doesn’t wash.
Subsidisation of the use of fossil fuels should be at the very least phased out, if not axed immediately.
Boerwarsays:
Friday, May 10, 2024 at 12:32 pm
The back of the envelope figures are pretty big.
This is before we even begin any transition costs.
It looks at money in and money out including the cost of paying jobkeeper to those who lose their jobs.
Say $120 billion loss in fossil fuel export earnings.
Say loss of royalties of around $27 billion.
Say plus $12 billion subsidies.
Say a loss of 50,000 direct jobs @ say $150,000 per annum = loss of $7.5 billion.
Say a multiplier loss of an additional 100,000 jobs @ say $90,000 per annum = loss of $9 billion.
Foreign capital investment foregone. Lumpy. Say loss of $5 billion per annum.
150,000 additional job keeper @ say $45,000 per annum ($39,000 + various oncosts) = cost to budget of $6.75 billion per annum.
Cattle-related exports per annum in exports. loss of $12 billion per annum.
Jobs lost: around 430,000 workers. Jobkeeper @ say $45,000 per annum = cost to budget of $19.3 billion per annum.
Sheep related exports, say a loss of around $5 billion per annum.
___________________________
Not everything in this list is zero sum by a long stretch.
If you are to forego Cattle/Sheep related activities, there are a number of alternate food and related industries that would step in to fill the void.
Probably eat more vegetables – which requires far less land than livestock.
Probably consume more kangaroo, crocodile, etc which would increase in value.
You can’t just draw a line through dollar values…
There was some suggestion here that fertiliser might decrease atmospheric carbon by promoting plant growth. Unfortunately that is not the case. The vast majority of fertilizer is used on cereals and other short term crops. The fertilizer is used to replenish nutrients that intensive cropping has removed from the ground. So it is about replenishing nutrients to get back to normal plant growth and not causing vigorous extra growth. Crops are only a short term sequestraters of carbon anyway. As all the carbon sequestrated is released generally annually. Though the overall uptake and release process is basically carbon neutral. Unfortunately though cropping is a major source of atmospheric carbon. As the vegetation type they generally replaced had a much higher carbon biomass. So if you replace a Woodland, Forest or Rainforest with a crop. You have significantly decreased the carbon holding biomass of that land.
How big are the industries requiring Tallow in Australia?
Last time I looked
Tallow was essential to making grease?
A month after Ukraine began bombarding targets inside Russia with explosives-laden sports planes modified for remote flight, one of the do-it-yourself drones has struck an oil refinery in the city of Salavat, more than 800 miles from the front line of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine.
It is, by far, Ukraine’s longest-range raid—and an escalation of Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign targeting Russian refineries, factories and strategic military sites.
And it’s at least the fourth attempted deep strike involving Ukraine’s sport-plane drones. Videos shot by people on the ground in Salavat clearly depict the wide straight wings, fixed wheels and propeller that are typical of an inexpensive sport plane, the kind a middle-class pilot can build at home from a kit costing as little as $90,000.
The Ukrainian intelligence directorate, working in conjunction with the country’s special operations command, has turned two locally-made plane types into drones: the Aeroprakt A-22 and Aerosor Nynja.
https://www.alternet.org/trump-bribes-big-oil/
Hey Mostly, it’s a little more complicated then using the flood as a baseline, because pretty much everything on BWs list will be negatively impacted by climate change; a 2019 paper by the climate council shows expected cumulative costs of droughts on agriculture alone to basically wipe 1 percent of gdp every year. And that’s just heatwave crop damage, not including property damage (571 billion loss by the 2030s) etc
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Costs-of-climate-change-report.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwj8kJnVi4KGAxWhYfUHHYvLCisQFnoECBMQAQ&usg=AOvVaw170Mf_GN1WGevvs-xng_X0
Oliver Sutton says:
Friday, May 10, 2024 at 7:53 am
“… Queen Elizabeth II penned a letter of sympathy to Peter Hollingworth after he resigned in disgrace as governor-general over his past handling of child sexual abuse …”
Head of State + Head of Church.
What’s wrong with this picture?
___________________________________________________________
At least the late Queen Elizabeth had the front this time to personally write to Peter Hollingworth, unlike her correspondence with a previous governor-general, John Kerr, which occurred through her private secretary, Sir Martin Charteris, when the Palace was conspiring with Kerr to sack the Whitlam government.
I think both episodes show just how out of touch and on the wrong side of history this British monarch was. Gough Whitlam himself had a huge respect for Elizabeth and went to his grave believing that “she would never have done it”, that is, sacked him from the prime ministership.
Poor Gough, he was so trusting and ready to believe in people’s good intentions. The queen might never have done it herself, but she was ready to aid and abet her representative in another country who was doing it.
As for her belief in Peter Hollingworth being wronged, again, that shows she was more concerned about shoring up the established order than siding with the victims of institutional power.
The sooner Australia is done with its links to this moribund institution the better.
Alpha Zerosays:
Friday, May 10, 2024 at 12:56 pm
If you are to forego Cattle/Sheep related activities, there are a number of alternate food and related industries that would step in to fill the void.
Probably eat more vegetables – which requires far less land than livestock.
Probably consume more kangaroo, crocodile, etc which would increase in value.
Boer was talking Meat Export Industries. Those won’t be converting to vegetable growing, they will revert to arid scrubland without grazing.
Eating Roo is mad on health grounds, because they’re all field killed and dressed .
Emerson poll for next week’s Maryland Senate primary has Democratic candidates David Trone and Angela Alsobrooks pretty much tied.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/maryland-2024-poll-alsobrooks-42-trone-41/
Both of them leading over the Republican Larry Hogan by 49-38 and 48-38 as well.
Totally Lordbain.
Professor of Environmental Economics and Biosecurity, School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences at the University of Melbourne puts the potential cost of inaction of climate change as 1.19 trillion, with a decent chance of 2 trillion plus https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/news/what-are-the-full-economic-costs-to-australia-from-climate-change
Player Onesays:
Friday, May 10, 2024 at 9:47 am
I think you’ll find a correlation between how poorly Labor is traveling on the day and the level of snark here on PB from Labor partisans directed at anyone who dares to post commentary on that. On that basis yesterday was a shocker, and today may not be much better.
_____________________
They always get aggressive when they have to support a policy that everyone knows they have criticised in the past.
Taylormadesays:
Friday, May 10, 2024 at 1:18 pm
Player Onesays:
Friday, May 10, 2024 at 9:47 am
I think you’ll find a correlation between how poorly Labor is traveling on the day and the level of snark here on PB from Labor partisans directed at anyone who dares to post commentary on that. On that basis yesterday was a shocker, and today may not be much better.
_____________________
They always get aggressive when they have to support a policy that everyone knows they have criticised in the past.
==================================================
Do you even believe in man made climate change or are you just taking pot shots from the cheap seats?.
Alpha Zero
Good point, IMO.
Alpha Zero says:
Friday, May 10, 2024 at 12:56 pm
Boerwarsays:
Friday, May 10, 2024 at 12:32 pm
The back of the envelope figures are pretty big.
This is before we even begin any transition costs.
It looks at money in and money out including the cost of paying jobkeeper to those who lose their jobs.
Say $120 billion loss in fossil fuel export earnings.
Say loss of royalties of around $27 billion.
Say plus $12 billion subsidies.
Say a loss of 50,000 direct jobs @ say $150,000 per annum = loss of $7.5 billion.
Say a multiplier loss of an additional 100,000 jobs @ say $90,000 per annum = loss of $9 billion.
Foreign capital investment foregone. Lumpy. Say loss of $5 billion per annum.
150,000 additional job keeper @ say $45,000 per annum ($39,000 + various oncosts) = cost to budget of $6.75 billion per annum.
Cattle-related exports per annum in exports. loss of $12 billion per annum.
Jobs lost: around 430,000 workers. Jobkeeper @ say $45,000 per annum = cost to budget of $19.3 billion per annum.
Sheep related exports, say a loss of around $5 billion per annum.
___________________________
Not everything in this list is zero sum by a long stretch.
…’
==========================
Good point, IMO. The point of the exercize was to make the point that transitioning towards zero net fifty was going to involve massive sums of money and massive shifts in economic activity.
Say 350,000 houses that will have to be rebuilt or shifted because of sea level rise, floods, fires, storms and droughts.
Say $300 billion.
The ultimate cost is speculative. We can say with certainty that the costs have started in two different ways: housing insurance. Loss of houses.
I think your calcs just hit half a trillion BW.
Boerwarsays:
Friday, May 10, 2024 at 1:28 pm
Say 350,000 houses that will have to be rebuilt or shifted because of sea level rise, floods, fires, storms and droughts.
Say $300 billion.
The ultimate cost is speculative. We can say with certainty that the costs have started in two different ways: housing insurance. Loss of houses.
======================================================
Many new ones getting built will require higher bushfire or storm survival ratings too. Basically the vast majority of houses will need to be be built to higher safety standards.
The excess deaths because of plus 2.5 degrees are likely to be enormous.
Around 150 million are going to lose house and home around asia alone.
Starvation numbers and world commodity crop prices are directly related.
If there is a drop in commodity crop productivity within the band 5-15% as currently predicted then there will be a disproportionate increase in crop prices and a disproportionate increase in starvation deaths.
The current situation is not all that good as a starting point. Around 5 million children a year die of famine/hunger-related diseases. (Time to protest against Israel’s Gazan food blockade? This is reported to be killing two children a day.)
Around 500 million people at any one time endure ‘food insecurity’. Aka they go to bed hungry.
What I am particularly looking forward to is the Greens Government completely transitioning Australia out of fossil fuels, into renewables generation, into E transport and into E materials. Of course the cattle and the sheep will be gone. All within 15 years.
It is going to be one of the most remarkable achievements in world economic history.
Unless of course some performance politicians stunting fools in the senate call for a committee enquiry and keep sending Bills back to the House amended.
Boerwar @ #104 Friday, May 10th, 2024 – 12:32 pm
The “earnings” from fossil fuels you are quoting are not government revenue, and should not be on your list. These go to private interests, who are naturally fighting tooth and nail to keep their tax free billions in “earnings” rolling in.
The total government revenue from fossil fuels is around $20 billion …
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-8489.12503
Take off the $12 billion in government fossil fuel subsidies, and the cost to government revenue of eliminating fossil fuels would be around $8 billion per annum.
I think we can cope with this loss without destroying the economy. It is almost insignificant when compared to other sources of government revenue.
In a way, we are lucky our government is so incompetent when it comes to taxing fossil fuels …
So the loss of fossil fuel revenue will not hurt Australia as badly as it would some other countries. And it also means we don’t need to bother with all the other figures you quote. They are irrelevant.
In other words, we don’t need to destroy our economy to do our bit to address the climate crisis.
As I keep pointing out – it’s fossil fuels. Just fossil fuels.
Entropy
It is already happening. Many people who lost houses and who were ensured to replacement costs under the old build rules are finding they cannot replace their houses because of the new building standards.
Boerwar
Given all of that, it’s pretty irresponsible to be promoting giving birth to more children, eh?
Maybe children born as a result of the baby bonus should prepare for a class action against the Commonwealth.
Queensland fossil fuel royalties:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/16/a-coal-royalties-revamp-delivered-a-record-surplus-in-queensland-heres-why-nsw-must-follow-suit
Boerwarsays:
Friday, May 10, 2024 at 1:39 pm
Entropy
It is already happening. Many people who lost houses and who were ensured to replacement costs under the old build rules are finding they cannot replace their houses because of the new building standards.
=================================================
Yet even those new building standards will probably require revising up. As global warming is still increasing.
‘Rewi says:
Friday, May 10, 2024 at 1:40 pm
Boerwar
Given all of that, it’s pretty irresponsible to be promoting giving birth to more children, eh?
Maybe children born as a result of the baby bonus should prepare for a class action against the Commonwealth.’
——————-
I have long advocated that Australia stop taking any additional migrants and that instead we export humans to lower emissions footprint per capita countries. One Australian shifting to Burkino Faso would result in a huge net result in CO2 emissions for that person.
This policy setting has not taken off as you would be aware.
Obviously ‘Big Australia’ is a terrible policy vision statement. We are completely unsustainable at current settings on current population numbers.
As for urging women to have more births it is nothing more than click bait. There was the usual massive and disproportionate pile on by the usual anti-Labor slagging zealots.
IMO, not a single additional womb is going to spring into action as a result of Chalmer’s call.
The Chicommies can empty wombs by the tens of millions. They are finding it much, much harder to fill wombs.
Australia one child policy? Carbon tax any additional children?
Boerwar
Combining your ‘export Australians to LDCs’ policy with your ‘ground all aircraft’ policy would be particularly challenging I suspect.
The romance of sail?
All this captured CO2 has got to go somewhere, right?
Pump it into the Aquifers, job done.
What’s that, Skippy?
People drink water out of them aquifers?
Sorry, bud, we gotta planet to save, …
Ooooh…
I have just found an industry subsidy that no-one is much interested in mentioning.. We all know that the tourism industry is bad for biodiversity, creates a massive housing opportunity cost, is a useless means of redistributing wealth and uses huge amounts of fossil fuels. Should governments be subsidizing this mess?
Direct Fed, state and territory government(s) tourism industry subsidy annually is well north of $2 billion per annum. Then of course there is the massive funding involved in maintaining tourist attractions by councils and by agencies such as national parks bodies.
Badthinkersays:
Friday, May 10, 2024 at 1:52 pm
All this captured CO2 has got to go somewhere, right?
Pump it into the Aquifers, job done.
What’s that, Skippy?
People drink water out of them aquifers?
Sorry, bud, we gotta planet to save, …
========================================================
Why would you pump it into aquifers?. If it was possible to pump it back into underground wells. Which is a huge if and unproven so far. You would pump it back into used oil and gas wells. We have a huge amount of them.
Though if going to do this. We shouldn’t decommission the gas platforms in Bass Strait. As those that no longer pumping out LNG would then be pumping in CO2 instead. Though as i said above this hasn’t been proven as a technology at all so far.
‘Rewi says:
Friday, May 10, 2024 at 1:51 pm
Boerwar
Combining your ‘export Australians to LDCs’ policy with your ‘ground all aircraft’ policy would be particularly challenging I suspect.
The romance of sail?’
———————-
haha.
Did I mention that orders for China’s equivalent of the 767 stand at over a thousand?
One of the peculiarities of our Age is the speed with which things can change. Oceanic steam driven travel for passengers from maybe the mid 19th century. Mass jet-propelled air travel from around the mid 20th century.
For 99.99999% of human history travel was slow as a horse or a footwalk.
There is no particular reason that, if we have to, we can’t do it again.
We’re down to 1.63
In Seoul alone it is down to something like .5
2.1 is generally regarded as evens.
Bettina and Bruce. I feel a road movie coming on:
https://www.theguardian.com/media/commentisfree/article/2024/may/10/bettina-arndt-passed-hat-around-for-accommodation-cash-and-new-friends-for-bruce-lehrmann-ntwnfb
Boerwar @ #142 Friday, May 10th, 2024 – 1:55 pm
I’m not going to get into your ignorant characterization of the impacts of tourism. I have done so before and unlike you I see no reason to bore PB witless by simply repeating old posts.
However, I’m happy to agree to dropping tourism subsidies. They are not needed, and do not generally go to the “on the ground” tourism operators that are the backbone of the industry. Dropping them won’t impact the tourism industry much if at all – but dropping the subsidies on the fossil fuel industry would impact it quite dramatically, and also change people’s perception of the real costs of using fossil fuels.
Which can only be a good thing.
Lehrmann costs decision live streamed here shortly (2:15 AEST)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Em0QurQ_MB8
Cheers Socrates… wow thats a scathing start
Boerwarsays:
Friday, May 10, 2024 at 2:06 pm
Bettina and Bruce. I feel a road movie coming on:
https://www.theguardian.com/media/commentisfree/article/2024/may/10/bettina-arndt-passed-hat-around-for-accommodation-cash-and-new-friends-for-bruce-lehrmann-ntwnfb
======================================================
Not sure i totally believe all dodgy Bruce’s claims about his finances or lack of them. I remember how he and Channel 7 also swore blind he was not paid for his interview. Yet it turned out he had been paid handsomely in kind. I wonder if Channel 10 might ask Justice Lee to authorise a full financial audit of dodgy Bruce. I suspect even Justice Lee might be interested in just how many accounts and credit cards he actually has. He certainly doesn’t believe the account information he gave to the AFP was a full disclosure though.