The fortnightly Essential Research poll has both parties up on the primary vote, Labor by two to 31% and the Coalition by one to 35%, with undecided down two to 4%. The Greens are on 11%, reversing a three-point spike last time, and One Nation gets its best result for the term with a three-point surge to 9%. The Coalition moves back into the lead on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, up three to 49% with Labor down one to 47%. The monthly leadership ratings find Peter Dutton with net positive approval for the first time from this or any other pollster, with a four-point gain on approval to 44% and a three-point drop on disapproval to 41%. Anthony Albanese up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 43% and 48% respectively.
A regular question on national mood found a one-point increase in those who consider the country headed in the wrong direction to 50% and a one point drop on right direction to 32%. When it was put to respondents that the government’s Future Made in Australia policy would “provide funding for large-scale renewable energy projects that support the creation of local jobs”, 51% were in favour with 18% opposed. Fifty-two per cent said they would support nuclear power, up two from October, with 31% opposed, down two. A question on Israel’s military action in Gaza recorded a five-point drop in those who thought Israel should permanently withdraw to 32%, with 19% considering its actions justified (up one) and 19% favouring a temporary ceasefire (down one). Twenty-nine per cent supported recognition of a Palestinian state with 24% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1145.
After two successive polls with the Coalition in the lead, the latest weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor back in front 52-48 on two-party preferred. On the primary vote, Labor is up half a point to 30.5%, the Coalition is down three to 35.5%, the Greens are up two-and-a-half to 16% and One Nation is steady at 5.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1617.
Preselection news:
• Andrew Potts of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports Leon Rebello, solicitor at King & Wood Mallesons, won a Liberal National Party preselection on the weekend to succeed the retiring Karen Andrews in McPherson. Other candidates were Ben Naday, lawyer and former staffer to Andrews, and David Stevens, managing director of a private strategy and investment consulting firm and Howard government cabinet policy unit adviser.
• Ian Bushnell of RiotACT reports four candidates have nominated for a Liberal preselection vote to be held on Saturday to choose the party’s lead Senate candidate in the Australian Capital Territory: Giulia Jones, who served in the territory parliament from 2012 to 2022; Jerry Nockles, deputy chief executive of Independent Higher Education Australia and unsuccessful candidate for Eden-Monaro in 2022; Jacob Vadakkedathu, director of a management consultancy; and Kacey Lam-Evans, a former ministerial adviser to Christopher Pyne who now works for his lobbying firm. Zed Seselja lost the party’s ACT Senate seat to independent David Pocock at the 2022 election.
• Mark Phillips of Brunswick Voice reports Samantha Ratnam, the Greens state party leader, has won the party preselection ballot for the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills, prevailing over the party’s candidate from 2022, Sarah Jefford.
FUBAR says:
“There is no way an Aluminium Smelter could operate depending on a single wind farm or multiple wind farms. They can’t afford to lose power when the pots are hot.”
True. It would need to be connected to a network of other sources and storage. There are currently four aluminium smelters in Australia. Not one of them is connected to a sole, isolated power supply. I see no reason to suggest a future one would, except to substantiate a specious argument.
Aww, look at Lars at 7:10pm, thinks he’ll be immune from all the horrible things a Dutton government has to offer. Bless.
TK:
“if the nuclear plants are underwritten, or some guarantees are given, they become viable.”
Like this? https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/renewable/capacity-investment-scheme
Bless you too kirksdarke.
Kirsdarkesays:
Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at 7:13 pm
Aww, look at Lars at 7:10pm, thinks he’ll be immune from all the horrible things a Dutton government has to offer. Bless.
===============================================
Do we know what Lars does or owns. He might be an owner of a coal fired power station for instance?. In that case he probably would be better off under Dutton.
Full effects of global warming want effect the wealthy as much too.
Climate change in China:
Bafflegab or Doubletalk?
If Robinson Crusoe on his Island lit a couple of wood fires every day, would he be history’s greatest criminal [on a per capita basis]?
Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_China
A great point raised by James O’Brien in that the full picture of exactly how bad the UK is going will not be revealed to the British public until the most likely scenario of a Labour government coming into power.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VV4-41xPMcI
Essentially he says that the reason is that the control of information into what’s happening passes through the hands of those who said Brexit was a good thing, that Boris Johnson and Liz Truss were and are competent Prime Ministers, that everything that’s going wrong is the fault of people other than the Tories.
But in the most likely case of Labour winning the next UK election, they’ll all spin on a dime and start snarling about how it’s all their fault that things are so shit over there.
Per Capita emissions and historic emissions are scientifically completely irrelevant.
They are only way they are relevant is if you are using climate change for political purposes.
What happened to MacArthur? Did he get banned or did he self-select?
Hopefully he’s feeling happy – after the news re Ukraine aid this week.
OC – The Sir Jeffrey perp walk.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-68881483
‘Badthinker says:
Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at 7:29 pm
Climate change in China:
However, like other developing countries, on a per-capita basis, China’s carbon emissions are considerably less than countries like the United States.
It has also been noted that higher-income countries have outsourced emissions-intensive industries to China.
On the basis of cumulative CO2 emissions measured from 1751 through to 2017, China is responsible for 13% globally and about half of the United States’ cumulative emissions …
Bafflegab or Doubletalk?
If Robinson Crusoe on his Island lit a couple of wood fires every day, would he be history’s greatest criminal [on a per capita basis]?
Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_China‘
—————————————
‘It has also been noted that higher-income countries have outsourced emissions-intensive industries to China.’
Bwahahaha. Now the West is to be blamed for China’s contribution to global warming! Nice work if you can get it.
China’s economic approach is mercantilist. It wanted high emissions industries from around the world and it got them. Have a look at the graphs for China’s aluminium production and the graphs for China’s coal consumption.
China has for decades virtually ignored environmental impacts from anything to what it spews into the rivers, lakes and the sea to what it spews into the atmosphere. Its soils carry some very interesting chemical loads. It is not for nothing that parents who can afford to do so buy baby formula overseas.
Its ground waters are in some areas heavily depleted. Its largest freshwater lake dried out completely. It ignores the environmental impacts of its investments o/s. It subsidizes exports. It punishes imports as it suits using non-tariff barriers. As happens when you get a rising middle class there is pressure for some progress on urban air quality. Those who watched the recent Shanghai F1 would have noticed how dense the air looked. They would also have noted how track side grass repeatedly caught fire… even in the rain.
The Pearl River Delta alone receives a million tons of raw sewage a year.
Biodiversity? Smashed. China has close to 4,000 species with varying degrees of conservation concern.
Xi is giving directions which, put together and enforced, might reduce the rate of China’s environmental degradation but the environment has been smashed.
Xi might start by blocking the new coal fired plants being approved at the rate of two per week.
Is Sohar’s Simpson’s donkey racist?
It completely takes agency from the Iran axis of Heshbollah, the Houthies, various Iranian terrorist groups in Iraq and Syria, Iran itself, and Hamas.
Kirsdarke says:
Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at 5:56 pm
Developments in the Cobram woman Emma Bates’ death.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/a-beautiful-soul-another-woman-killed-man-arrested-in-regional-victoria-20240412-p5fjbt.html
The man arrested over the death of 49-year-old woman Emma Bates in Cobram was previously found not guilty of murdering a toddler in Mildura in 2015.
John Torney, 39, was arrested on Wednesday after Bates was found dead in her home on Campbell Road about 2.15pm on Tuesday. Police believe she was the subject of a violent assault.
Police confirmed a 39-year-old Cobram man had been arrested and homicide squad detectives were investigating. No charges have been laid.
“The parties are believed to be known to each other,” police said in a statement.
I feel somewhat sick reading the details of the article, considering the arrested suspect was involved in hiding the body of a 2-year old girl in a roof cavity 9 years ago. This is a really messed up case.
—————————
Another shocking murder of a woman, a day after Molly Ticehurst’s cruel death, including the suspects possible connection to the hiding of the body of a 2 year old girl.
And what does PM Albanese say?
From the ABC:
April 24, 2024
‘Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has described it as a “crisis”, noting that one woman a week dies at the hands of someone they know or someone they are in a relationship with. This year, that number is two women every nine days.
When asked if the crisis was a national emergency, the prime minister avoided labelling it one.’
That’s right. Albanese is not interested. Being a man these deaths don’t, will never effect him.
No leadership from Albanese. Or Dreyfus. I guess no matter how many more violent deaths Australian women suffer from a male they know, those two will turn their heads away.
To label these killings as terrorism, which it is, and would bring a much more severe punishment to the perpetrator, can’t happen in their man’s world.
Terrorism only occurs when a man, often a religious person, is threatened by a person holding a knife. As we saw a week ago.
Double standards by Albanese and Dreyfus. Women are expendable it seems in their minds.
How soon would China have to cease opening 2 Coal Power Houses a week to avoid the big 2.5C?
[‘Do not let Molly Ticehurst die in vain.
This request is neither cynical nor overly ambitious: Sometimes, the most terrible things provide the opportunity for us to change things for the better.
The death of Molly Ticehurst is so bad, so sad, that I have instinctively pulled away from the details and the allegations about the lead-up to her death. It is raw. It is hard to face. But that is part of the problem; wishing it had never happened will never be the solution.
Molly Ticehurst’s alleged murderer, Daniel Billings, was released on bail just weeks after being accused of sexually assaulting her.
As a community, we are looking away from what is going wrong, and we are failing to face up to what must be done. It is now obvious that our laws restricting males from stalking females (oh, and let’s get it straight – this is a male problem) are grossly inadequate. In Molly’s case, charges have only just been laid, but notwithstanding, in other cases, the existing laws have been proved to fail. They fail day after day – with fatal consequences.
Our social history tells us that when our laws are failing, we change them. Think about the Port Arthur massacre: one of the worst moments in our history was converted into something positive. We can stop bad things if we have the commitment.
Stronger action must be taken against men credibly accused of stalking, threatening or abusing women. History tells us that the “protection” supposedly afforded by an apprehended violence order is often no protection at all. We need to do more; we need to do things differently.
And it is urgent. The government should act now. Premier Minns has announced yet another inquiry, but that is pointless and wastes valuable time – the outcome is already obvious…’] – SMH
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/don-t-let-molly-ticehurst-die-in-vain-i-don-t-care-if-we-restrict-civil-liberties-20240424-p5fm76.html
The Age 24/04
Marape celebrated his 53rd birthday on Wednesday by stripping off his shirt and bathing in a clear running stream along the track, and later with chocolate cake that had been delivered to the camp site by helicopter.
_____________________
Chocolate cake all round for our brave trekkers.
@Irene at 8:09pm
Oh for fuck sake, it’s honestly ridiculous how quickly you try to whiplash this into being the personal fault of Albanese.
Is a man who is murdered worth less than a woman who is murdered?
Why does each male murder get less than 5% of MSM coverage than that of a woman?
Why this national silence?
Should an emergency be declared because men are being murdered at a horrible rate?
Is the murder of men at twice the rate of women terrorism?
Hey now hey now…
https://twitter.com/Jess_Panegyres/status/1783010261659795962
There was a sharp contrast today between two prime ministers.
The first prime minister was Abbott who made snide denigrating jokes about Pacific leaders.
The second prime minister is Albanese who is building personal relationships with the leader of a crucial neighbour.
Well done, Prime Minister.
‘Kirsdarke says:
Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at 8:13 pm
@Irene at 8:09pm
Oh for fuck sake, it’s honestly ridiculous how quickly you try to whiplash this into being the personal fault of Albanese.’
————–
Thank you. Out of respect to Mr Bowe I had self-censored.
Irene @ #313 Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 – 8:09 pm
You are truly a scurvy knave. A scumbag as well. With an entirely predictable m.o. How do you sleep at night creating such disgustingly false scenarios about our Prime Minister?
Stronger action must be taken against men credibly accused of stalking, threatening or abusing women.
Investigating every claim to the level of ‘credible’, you’re goimg to need a larger Police Service.
History tells us that the “protection” supposedly afforded by an apprehended violence order is often no protection at all.
No it doesn’t.
What the tabloids tell us is that if you’re a TV celebrity or retired sportsman, you’ll get endless goes at breaking an AVO.
If you’re Neville Nobody, you’ll get 6 months Gaol first up.
Lars
Que?
Taylormade @ #316 Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 – 8:11 pm
If it was Dutton you’d be applauding. And you know it.
We need our leaders to lead on this DV emergency that’s seeing all these women killed. Call a summit. Do something ffs !
Douglas and Milko @ #324 Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 – 8:25 pm
Lars Von Trier appears to be working with very thin gruel these days. 🙂
A suggestion I put into the political process but which did not get up was that individuals on AVOs have to wear ankle bands.
This is combined with a geographic safe zone.
The technology exists for an automatic lat long report to go to the police when the person who is subject to an AVO enters the safe zone.
If the person with the AVO enters the safe zone, regardless of the reasons, that person has automatically commited a crime.
The beauty of this is that it is virtually self-policing. It is cheap. It is virtually automatic in terms of policing an AVO breach. It should be effective in keeping AVOs and their targets phsycially separate.
Lol, eating chocolate on the Kokoda track. NFI.
Rex Douglas @ #326 Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 – 8:26 pm
And then what? Tell all the misogynists on social media to please stop filling empty heads with garbage? Get real, for once, Rex Douglas, and stop using every issue to insinuate something negative about the Labor government. This issue is too serious and too complex for your gimcrack one-liners. 😡
We need our leaders to lead on this DV emergency that’s seeing all these women killed. Call a summit. Do something ffs !
The problem for Albo is that whatever he proposes, within reason, Dutton will support, and where’s the percentage in that?
Rex Douglas @ #329 Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 – 8:29 pm
It was the PNG PM’s birthday, fcs! But no, some nobody on social media disapproves. Are you clutching your pearls as you type this absolute crap, Rex Douglas?
This will be the deathblow if it happens:
christopher joye
@cjoye
Australia’s top rates strategist, Barrenjoey’s Andrew Lilley:
I think the RBA are very close to hiking- it is a line ball call. I’d assign a 40% chance they hike by August and a 60% chance they don’t. Part of that 40% encompasses two hikes (so it is close to 20% of one hike, 20% of two). I mean this seriously and honestly – I am not merely trying to hedge these two bets…I am not sure they would be willing to hike in May or June, but it would be a very close decision. At any rate, the risk of a cut by August is de minimis, so August remains the most attractive pay…
The unemployment rate has come in -20bps below the RBA’s forecast (3.9% vs 4.1%), while trimmed mean inflation has come in +20bps above (1.01% vs 0.8%). These are the two things that the RBA targets, and a standard monetary policy rule would say that you need to hike for surprises this large.
Badthinkersays:
Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at 8:30 pm
We need our leaders to lead on this DV emergency that’s seeing all these women killed. Call a summit. Do something ffs !
The problem for Albo is that whatever he proposes, within reason, Dutton will support, and where’s the percentage in that?
==================================================
Not sure on that. Dutton’s last contribution to this area was to encourage Reynold’s to continue her legal pursuit of a rape victim.
Would it be permissible for Reynolds to go after David Sharaz only?
In your opinion.
Rex Douglassays:
Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at 8:29 pm
Lol, eating chocolate on the Kokoda track. NFI.
====================================================
Cocoa beans are actually grown in PNG. Are you suggesting they shouldn’t eat locally grown produce?.
Well, yeah, chocolate rations were issued to WW2 soldiers, even on the Kokoda track as a means of an emergency energy boost.
No they weren’t given a slice of a gigantic cake with truffles, just a specific ration consisting of a block that wouldn’t melt in the tropical heat for a burst of energy if they ran out of all of their other rations, which often happened in the jungle. And more often than not it tasted like crap. But it got them through the fights they needed to win to hold off the Japanese at the time.
Obviously Coalition supporters probably can’t understand this intricacy, but that’s essentially why chocolate rations were a thing at the time.
Males are more than twice as likely as females to be murdered. 70% of homicides are of males and 30% females.
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/recorded-crime-victims/latest-release
…but it is female homicides that are the worse problem. Apparently.
And now along gallops FUBAR, declaring that all these women being murdered isn’t such a significant thing, so we might as well go back to ignoring them so let’s just get back to our comfort zone and ignore the problem that we can detect with our eyes and ears.
Badthinkersays:
Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at 8:39 pm
Would it be permissible for Reynolds to go after David Sharaz only?
In your opinion.
===============================================
Going after anyone on this issue looks incredibly petty. Especially when you formally apologised to them previously in a defamation case you lost. Also when the Government you were in gave a formal apology on this matter in parliament. Pursuing them now makes Reynolds and the LNP look like it is totally insensitive to sufferings of rape victims. It also makes their past apologies now look incredibly non-genuine.
Going after the supporter of a rape victim is not on either.
Bring on the empty horses:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/apr/24/horses-on-loose-central-london
Fubar, I think the issue with women being murdered is that they are disproportionately represented as the victims of murder by their intimate partner. Male murders are far more likely to result from business disputes and suchlike.
And yes, the public puts more store on murders by intimate partners than bikie wars, drug disputes and criminal turf battles.
Kirsdarkesays:
Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at 8:40 pm
Well, yeah, chocolate rations were issued to WW2 soldiers, even on the Kokoda track as a means of an emergency energy boost.
===============================================
They were also called Choco’s. As reference to someone who had labelled them Chocolate Soldiers.
“In July 1942 the Papuan Infantry Battalion was joined by recent conscripts who arrived with little military training and whose average age was eighteen and a half. It was these forces that had to be called upon to mount the offensive. At first these young and ill-trained soldiers earned the pejorative nick-name of ‘chocos’ or ‘chocolate soldiers’. This term came from George Bernard Shaw’s play Arms and the Man, about a man who would not fight. It was first used during World War I about soldiers who had arrived in Egypt after Gallipoli. After their ‘baptism of fire’ at Kokoda and Milne Bay, however, the ‘chocos’ proved that they could fight bravely and well.”
https://www.battleforaustralia.asn.au/BAKokodaI.php
LvT
The deathblow for what exactly?
FUBAR @ #338 Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 – 8:40 pm
You do realise what you did there? And you who says they care so much about their daughter. 😐
My suggestion:
Working on the assumption that nearly all female Murder victims were killed by someone they knew, why did they take up with a savage bloke at the first place?
If it was mostly fimamcial, let’s create a Female Paymemt, say, from 14 years old, so that all females may have the choice of some fimamcial imdepedemce without puttimg their lives at risk?
@Entropy at 8:52pm
Yeah, that’s another term for them that was raised as well. Admittedly I only became aware of that while watching Fat Pizza on SBS with Paulie frequently referring to his status as an Army Reservist as being a “Chocco”, but they proved themselves well on the Kokoda Track.
Things could have turned out very badly for Australia if they completely melted as their naysayers said they would and the Japanese managed to take over Port Moresby.
Douglas and Milko @ #344 Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 – 8:55 pm
You should know by now, Lars Von Trier only insinuatesssssss.
Douglas and Milkosays:
Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at 8:55 pm
LvT
———————————————
The deathblow for what exactly?
===================================================
Lars still secretly hoped his stagflation prediction could somehow, against all the odds, come true. If this happens i believe he suspects there will be no hope of it.