Full displays of results:
Brisbane City Council wards election
11.42pm. My system has the Greens ahead in Paddington now, but slightly behind in Walter Taylor.
10.50pm. The ABC computer has different ideas from mine about a couple of things, notably Paddington, which it’s (again) calling for the Greens while mine has the LNP with its nose in front. This points to the difficulty of projection off an election that was held at the height of COVID, which dramatically changed how people voted. The Greens have a solid lead on the TCP count so far, but this is well behind the count for the primary vote.
10.08pm. One bright note for Labor is that they seem to have come to life in LNP-held Calamvale, which is now rated a likely Labor gain by both me and the ABC. That could see them break even after the loss of Wynnum-Manly, giving them the weak bragging right of not having done worse than last time. The ABC has retracted its call of Paddington as a Greens gain from the LNP — it and Walter Taylor both look very close.
9.54pm. I also note the ABC isn’t calling Ipswich West for the LNP — it’s projecting 52.6% TCP for the LNP whereas I have 53.2%. Mysteries abound — the TCP results on the ECQ site lag far behind the media feed, and actually have Labor ahead (from 6501 votes compared with 14,375 on the feed).
9.52pm. Actually, that’s not the reason my system is being more conservative about Walter Taylor than the ABC’s. I note that every ward result on the ABC says “0 of x centres reporting a preference count”, but preference counts have assuredly been reported. I’m not sure if this is purely a cosmetic issue or if the ABC is working entirely off preference estimates.
9.38pm. So Labor look like they are down from five BCC wards to four, having lost Wynnum-Manly to the LNP. The Greens are in the hunt in LNP-held Paddington and Walter Taylor, which both look very close, to add to their existing The Gabba. The ABC is calling Paddington for the Greens, so I suspect there is an issue here of my preference estimate selling them short — that will be corrected when a few more TCP results are through. However, their second tier hopes of Central, Coorparoo and Enoggera don’t look like coming through for them, so they will not emerge as the second strongest party.
9.35pm. I’ve devoted the last half hour to bug-hunting, at least partly because my read of a Labor disaster in the BCC ward of Wynnum-Manly didn’t seem to gel with the ABC — but now it does. That’s not to say there weren’t bugs though, one of which was stopping the two-candidate preferred tables from populating on the council wards results pages. That has now been fixed.
9.18pm. It’s been noted by preference estimates, which get used before two-candidate preferred numbers report, have been selling the Greens short in seats where they are challenging the LNP. I now have them ahead in Paddington, and a correction should soon come through in their favour in Walter Taylor.
8.41pm. A strong showing by the Greens in Labor-held Moorooka ward, where they look like taking second place from the LNP, but Labor still on track to retain it.
8.38pm. As well as Wynnum-Manly, I’m now projecting the LNP ahead in the Labor-held BCC ward of Morningside, suggesting they could be reduced to three seats. That at least raises the possibility of them being outperformed by the Greens, although it’s far from clear at this stage if they will add anything to their existing solitary seat of The Gabba (which is yet to record any figures) — there are four possibilities, but they’re not actually ahead in any of them.
8.34pm. Paddington still looks like a very close race between the LNP and the Greens with three booths in.
8.30pm. My system is now calling Ipswich West for the LNP. The projected swing in Inala is even bigger, but so is Labor’s buffer there.
8.21pm. My system is now calling six wards for the LNP, one of which is Enoggera.
8.19pm. Early figures suggest Labor are in big danger of losing Wynnum-Manly to the LNP, one of only five BCC wards they held going into the election.
8.18pm. The LNP looks like retaining Enoggera regardless of who comes second out of Labor and the Greens — my system is now favouring the latter. This was one of five LNP-held wards the Greens had identified as possible gains. Of their two presumed strongest chances, Paddington looks lineball and there is nothing in yet from Walter Taylor. Too early to say about their other second tier prospects of Coorparoo and Central.
8.13pm. While Adrian Schrinner is headed for re-election as Lord Mayor, he’s faded on my projection as the count has progressed, with a slight booth-matched swing away from him now recorded on the primary vote.
8.10pm. The good news for Labor is that my system is calling Inala for them. The bad news is that the swing is similar to the one that’s putting it on the cusp of calling Ipswich West for the LNP.
8.08pm. Early indications also point to a close LNP-Greens race in Paddington, where the Greens fancied their chances.
8.06pm. The first booth from the BCC Enoggera ward has the Greens second, but my projection has them behind Labor in a fairly close race for second. The LNP vote looks high enough for them to hold either way, but early days yet.
8.04pm. The Brisbane City booth gives the Greens an encouraging first result in the BCC’s Coorparoo ward — only 168 votes, but it points to a chance they will take it from the LNP, consistent with the party’s own expectations.
8.02pm. A booth in at last from Inala, and there too there is a huge swing to the LNP of over 20% according to my projection, with Labor’s primary vote collapsing 32.5% to 37.8%. No doubt Annastacia Palaszczuk had a big personal vote here, but still. Independent Linh Nyugen on double figures, presumably taking a bit from Labor. Bad as all this is for Labor, it doesn’t suggest they are in serious danger of losing.
8.00pm. It’s been noted that the informal vote in Ipswich West is out from 4.0% to 8.6%, which no doubt has a lot to do with an optional preferential voting council election being held on the same day as a compulsory preferential voting state by-election. Presumably this isn’t doing Labor any favours.
7.58pm. An eleventh booth in Ipswich West was obviously not good for Labor, pushing my projection of the LNP lead out from (from memory) 1.9% to 2.5% and increasing their win probability to 95%.
7.52pm. Substantial progress now in the mayoralty count, confirming what was noted before — Adrian Schrinner holding steady on his 2020 vote, and movement from Labor to the Greens but not enough to get the latter’s candidate, Jonathan Sriranganathan, to second.
7.50pm. The swing in Ipswich West continues to be big enough to make the LNP firm favourites when quite getting them to where my system would call it. The Brisbane council ward of Tennyson has been called for independent incumbent Nicole Johnston, who looks to be doing it easily.
7.43pm. Note that my mayoralty entry page does things like say certain wards have been “retained” by the LNP, which simply means Schrinner is projected to win there again. The system is geared to seat-style contests and I didn’t have time to finesse everything.
7.42pm. The lack of any action from Inala had me checking the ABC to make sure it wasn’t a fault in my system, but no, still no numbers there yet.
7.40pm. Some big lord mayoralty numbers in now, and the situation has settled quite considerably — it now looks like a status quo result with a bit of a swing from Labor to the Greens, rather than historic disaster Labor seemed to be suffering at first. Presumably this will start flowing through to the council ward results shortly.
7.37pm. Labor has perked up a little on my Ipswich West win probability with the reporting of a third two-candidate result, which presumably improved their projected preference flow.
7.33pm. On Brisbane Council, my system is now calling Bracken Ridge and LNP retain, which a huge swing blowing out what was hitherto a fairly tight margin.
7.31pm. My system has actually crossed the threshold where it’s not using my preference estimates in Ipswich West. So the 10% Labor win probability should probably be taken seriously at this point.
7.30pm. Eight booths in now on the primary vote — fast count there, slow one in Inala. Perhaps they’re prioritising by-election and council votes differently. In any case, the new Ipswich West results do not change what was written in the previous update.
7.28pm. Booth number five from Ipswich West is also less bad for Labor, being comparable to the last two. But I may have been wrong to say these booths were coming in below what the LNP needed to win the seat — I was just looking at the Labor primary vote (a lot on my plate at present). The LNP primary vote swing across the board is approaching 20%, which makes them look very dangerous. Legalise Cannabis are soaking up votes from the absent Greens and a lot depends on their preferences. My current projection assumes they will go 60-40 to Labor, but if they’re loaded with Greens voters they may get a stronger flow than that. Once there are enough two-candidate preferred votes in, my projection will go off the swing on preferences rather than my estimates.
7.20pm. From four wards, I’m recording LNP two-party swings of 4.2% to 15.0% for the lord mayoralty. It’s a similar story for the council, albeit that these are the same booths. So Labor would seem in big danger at this early stage of going backwards.
7.17pm. Two further booths from Ipswich West are better for Labor — seemingly a tad below what would cost them the seat. The two booths that came in first were well above that, so Labor will have to be hoping both were outliers. Still nothing from Inala.
7.16pm. My system is calling McDowall ward for the LNP and sees big LNP swings everywhere that a swing can be determined.
7.10pm. I’ve turned off some features that were misfiring on the mayoralty landing page. However, the primary vote numbers are suggesting a very good night for the LNP and not just in Ipswich West.
6.53pm. Remarkable first results from Ipswich West had me checking the ABC to see if there was something amiss in my system, but it concurs the LNP swing is blowing the hinges off. Still early days, but the fact that the ALP has been trounced in two booths will be giving them palpitations.
6.47pm. I’m hoping the screwiness on the lord mayoralty landing page at present will resolve when there are some numbers in that aren’t mobile booths.
6.37pm. To elaborate on that point, the swing results I have for the mobile booths are meaningless — in most cases there were zero mobile results last time, so I think I just gave them a fraction of a vote from the central pre-polling booth so the system would have something to work off. Everywhere else, the swing figures will be based on booth-to-booth comparison.
6.35pm. Two mobile booths in for the lord mayoralty, with the same issues noted in the previous update. The chart and dial on my lord mayoralty landing page won’t show anything until two-candidate preferred results are reported. Ordinarily I run projections based on the primary vote, but didn’t have time to do that in this case. A little perversely, I have projections for the mayoral results at ward level, but not overall. As always, another day to do all this would have been handy.
6.23pm. A mobile polling booth has reported 102 council ward votes in Bracken Ridge. Caution would be required here at the best of times, but especially on this occasion where mobile polling was just about non-existent last time because of COVID, making any swing figure meaningless.
6.20pm. One of the things I didn’t have time to do was code around a recurring issue where sometimes empty XML files get uploaded to my server, so I suspect there will be the odd occasion where you find the page hasn’t been filled out with data. If so, you should find it resolves after a minute or two.
6pm. Polls have closed for Queensland local government elections and Inala and Ipswich West state by-elections. The links above will take you to the Poll Bludger’s own live results pages, which I’m reasonably confident will work well in the case of the by-elections, but merely hopeful in the case of the Brisbane Lord Mayor and council elctions, which were a pretty huge undertaking and for which I was still squashing bugs up to the last, which is usually not a good sign. In any case, the first results should presumably be in in around half an hour or so.
Nicole Johnston is good, well deserved.
The rationale for the alleged bogus HTV cards is that the Legalise Cannabis party had just a vote 1 only card, but the bogus one shows 2nd preference to ALP.
Antony Green says he has one model showing ALP win in Ipswich West, one model showing a LNP win, and one model showing a 50-50 result.
Inala rental vacancy rate may 2023 an insane 0.4 percent.
Lots of voters are renters labor they have a right to accommodation.
Rebecca @ #31 Saturday, March 16th, 2024 – 7:23 pm
He actually doesn’t say which ones they are, but two of the strongest swings to LNP on primary are Marchant and McDowall which are silvertail areas.
Holy shit look at the informal rate in that Inala booth!
The suburb of Ipswich west only 435 residences has 44 percent rentals.
Ipswich region has 35 percent renters.
Real estate investar website.
I’m wondering why results are so slow. Hope the LNP aren’t employing Trumpian vote-challenging tactics.
Also, Mark Bailey (Labor state MP) on the ABC radio about 20 minutes ago had scrutineer figures for my ward that haven’t yet appeared in the electoral office count. So perhaps its a resourcing issue in the Electoral Commission.
Coorparoo where the Greens are currently ahead is (at Coorparoo itself) about 4-5 km south east of the CBD, I assume it would border The Gabba ward.
Confused by what I’m seeing in a lot of William’s computer’s predictions.
Eg. Calamvale has primaries of
Liberal National 39.3%
Greens 13.3%
Labor 47.5%
There’s only three candidates, so as long as more Greens prefs go Labor (as they invariably do), shouldn’t that predict a Labor gain?
Coorparoo for the Greens too? Sitting councillor Cunningham handled the floods about as poorly as a local candidate could.
Inala 47 per cent are rental properties.
0.4 crazy vacancy rate add both watch the swing go baby!
22 rentals available for a 14;000 plus population. Rental prices through the roof!
That’s right, Fargo.
Laming getting smashed in Redlands.
@ajm at 9:10 pm
Probably a big part of the reason for tonight’s delay is that there were still long queues at booths at 6:00 p.m. due to widespread understaffing by the ECQ. They are obligated (completely reasonably) to allow everyone who was in the queue at 6:00 p.m. to vote. And they can’t start counting until everyone has voted. So with many booths the staff would have still been serving voters as late as 7:00 pm and perhaps later.
[8.02pm. A booth in at last from Inala, and there too there is a huge swing to the LNP of over 20% according to my projection, with Labor’s primary vote collapsing 32.5% to 37.8%. No doubt Annastacia Palaszczuk had a big personal vote here, but still. Independent Linh Nyugen on double figures, presumably taking a bit from Labor. Bad as all this is for Labor, it doesn’t suggest they are in serious danger of losing.’]
Were Labor to lose Inala, perhaps Dick would’ve been a better choice. At the general election in October, Labor’s stuffed.
Matches what I saw today, HB.
Presumably the booth that’s in (Algester) is particularly strong for Labor, because the ABC also projects LNP ahead, though not by as much.
joeldipops – the Calamvale results so far are only from Algester, the results from the other booths will most likely be very different. Also the ALP vote at Alegester was down 2% and the LNP hold the ward from 2020.
Dandy Murray – I know nothing about the likely winner in Redlands, but Andrew Laming not doing well is the only bright spot of the night for me.
Joeldipops at the last election, the ALP won every in person booth in Calamvale. The LNP clawed back with convincing wins in the other vote types (mostly postal and early voting).
Obviously Steven Miles was the wrong person to replace Anastasia, I thought all along Cameron Dick would have been the steadier set of hands. Miles might be a hard worker with good Labor values, but he comes across as a complete buffoon on TV.
Bloody hell.
Completely agree, DS.
He presents as a smug smartarse.
I think the Labor preference flow projections are very wrong. There’s no way that projected primaries of 42 LNP, 40 Grn and 18 Lab produce a 2CP of 51 LNP, 49 GRN
That Moorooka booth in Annerley is the closest to the Gabba in the ward.
So do the union heavies tap Miles on the shoulder and urge him to pass the baton to Shannon Fentimen?
QLD Council and state by-election results are not good for state Labor.
There appears to be a straight 15% swap from the ALP to LNP in Ipswich West, and with 11% of the vote counted in Inala (south western Brisbane), we have an anti-ALP swing of > 25%.
For N.S.W. and A.C.T. posters, these sorts of figures will resonate with the Canberra Federal by-election in 1995 and the NSW state by-election in Penrith in 2010.
State Labor in QLD is finished and will be defeated in October this year. I posted this earlier this year and don’t need tonights results to affirm. Most other QLD posters are in agreement.
The figures in other areas of QLD, are not better for the ALP. The Goldy and Sunny Coast’s are strong LNP areas, and in the Townsville Mayoralty race an ex-ONP candidate is leading the primaries above 50%.
Hat tip to the Greens – They are on the march in Brisbane and are starting to cannabilise the ALP vote. Why this is happening, other posters can explain. It happenned in inner Melbourne in the early 2010’s, and now it is moving into Brisbane.
We have an interesting election next Saturday – Tasmania.
Should Labor win, there will be a short window in which the GST rate might be altered.
Federal Implications of tonights QLD Council elections: None
Reason: The LNP are at the high water mark in QLD. They may pick up another QLD seat federally, but realistically all they will do is increase their current margins.
Upcoming polls:
* Tomorrow night – Newspoll. Gut feeling – the ALP primary will drop from 33% last time.
* Monday arvo – Roy Morgan (This poll bounces around like a beachball, but I like it because of the
good sample size. I realise most posters dislike this poll.)
* Mid week – Redbridge Group is due. Monitor Kos Samaras’s twitter feed.
* Essential and Resolve Strategic – roughly around 26-Mar (both just before Easter)
* YouGov – early April, just after Easter.
Nine o’clock, and only 43 votes counted in the Chandler ward so far.
Big swings to the Greens all over the place, the progressive left really are on the march.
Steven Miles should resign.
You are correct. I’ve now got the Greens ahead there, just. This may also be an issue in other LNP-Greens contests.
It’s happened before.
William Gillies succeeded Ted Theodore in 1925, he was a dud, and they replaced him with Bill McCormack after 8 months, who then went on to win in 1926.
Labor can’t afford 8 months of Miles, though.
21st Premier of Queensland
In office
26 February 1925 – 22 October 1925
It isn’t just the LNP-Greens contests that William’s system’s preference predictions seem to be doing some funny things.
Labor has pulled ahead of the Greens in Holland Park, so with votes of LNP 43%, Lab 29.5%, Grn 27.4%, the system has it at 60-40 LNP with 100% win confidence.
How does the LNP make up 13% of the overall vote on Greens preferences with a Grn total of 27.4%? The listed Greens–>LNP preference flow seems to be far lower than would be needed for the LNP to pull that off.
If it’s the 2CP count because it appears to be from one booth, why the 100% win confidence?
What a disastrous night
nadia88 @ #39 Saturday, March 16th, 2024 – 8:34 pm
I have no connections in Queensland, nadia88, so I can’t help you there. Though I will make sure it doesn’t happen in NSW when the Council Elections are held here in September. Not that I control what individual unions decide to do, mind you. 🙂
An unmitigated disaster for QLD Labor. Probably lost Ipswich West by-election.
Close call in Inala. No wonder Asha is swearing.
Hope this year election doesn’t become a repeat of 2012 QLD state election.
Clicking through a few wards, I’m seeing exhaust rates down across the board.
But because the results are much more three-cornered this time, it seems like not down enough to save whichever Labor or Green is in second.
That’s a huge let-down for me.
Death to 2pp, long live 3pp
Yech. I think I will give Insiders a pass tomorrow morning. There will be no mention of Miles and all sorts of Federal implications.
I did say the Greens would do well off their focus on housing and in that I am not surprised.
‘How does the LNP make up 13% of the overall vote on Greens preferences with a Grn total of 27.4%? The listed Greens–>LNP preference flow seems to be far lower than would be needed for the LNP to pull that off.’
Greens voters that didn’t preference Labor or just voted 1, as a protest against the State Labor Government.
The LNP won Greenslopes at the 2012 State Election that way.
Cameron Dick was the losing MLA in Greenslopes in 2012.
Rebecca,
I agree, i think Holland Park is still in play.
Nadia:
Housing, housing, and housing.
Also, housing.
Not that they have proposed anything that would fix the problem, Asha!
QLD Labor lost Ipswich West. I can’t see them winning from here.
Inala PV swing is monstrous (29.3%).
This is unbelievable.
Steven Miles should resign now taking moral responsibility for the defeat.
Before Miles became Premier, the QLD Labor coffin was 1 foot down the 6 foot deep grave. It has now fell 5 feet very fast…
I haven’t been following Qld politics much lately apart from talking to my nephews. What is the concern with Steven Miles? What has he done?
Is that Labor’s worst ever PV in Inala?
Someone tell me again how much the LNP are on the nose.
Nobody can sugar coat disasters in Inala and Ipswich West by-election results.
I hope coming QLD state election won’t be like another 2012 landslide for LNP.
‘What has he done?’
Not much, but he’s perceived as a buffoon, which is a turn off for Female voters.
Think Trump, without the charm!
It should have been Shannon Fentiman with Dick as deputy. But the two guys stitched the deal up before a vote could occur. I assume Miles has good people skills. But, personally, I sat behind him at a QPAC play , there was no aura , just a friendly goofy person who just isn’t qld premier material. Ambition is greater here than his ability, and also what qld voters expect.