| Projected ALP swing | Projected TCP | ALP win probability |
Monday night
Labor had slightly the better of a second batch of postals, breaking 2945-2908 in their favour on two-candidate preferred, after those counted on election night went 4118-3721 to the Liberals.
Sunday night
Today’s counting consisted of rechecking and the addition of 338 formal votes from special hospital teams and electronic assisted voting. Of note in the former case was the correction in the Langwarrin booth that had inflated the Liberal swing there from 5.0% to 11.1% on two-party and from 7.6% to 13.7% on the primary vote. The latter figure was cited by News Corp’s James Campbell as evidence the Liberals had done better in the “richer, Tealier part of the electorate”. A similar argument by in a jointly written column for the Financial Review by Tim Wilson and Jason Falinksi, who lost their seats to teals in 2022, hangs on the slender thread of the Mount Eliza North booth — the one that gave the Liberals false hope when it was the first to report on Saturday, and which turns out to have had the biggest Liberal swing. Left unmentioned is that the other three election day booths in Mount Eliza, which each had two to three times more votes cast at them than Mount Eliza North, recorded below par swings of 1.0% to 1.6% (each of the electorate’s three pre-poll centres, including the one in Mount Eliza, swung by 4% to 5%). In point of fact, a geographical pattern to the results is difficult to discern.
End of Saturday night
The 3.9% two-party swing currently recorded against Labor in Dunkley can only be described as unremarkable. It is worse than the 1.3% average for first-term governments out of the twelve previous contested by-elections going back to 1983, but that includes some notable successes for governments in the first-flush of their honeymoons, including the 6.4% swing to Labor in Aston last year. All but two of the twelve were conducted in the government’s first year in office: in the two that weren’t, there were anti-government swings of 2.7% (last year’s Fadden by-election) and 6.1% (the Canning by-election in 2015, held days after Tony Abbott was deposed by Malcolm Turnbull). Another minor contingency is that Labor did badly out of the ballot paper draw, with the Liberal in first position and Labor last, whereas Peta Murphy was second behind an independent in 2022.
Evidence that by-elections caused by deaths are easier on the incumbent party than those caused by resignations seems to me rather thin. The average 4.8% swing in seats at by-elections caused by the deaths of government members calculated by The Australian is, by my reckoning, actually slightly higher than an overall 4.2% average in government-held seats over the same period. A linear regression analysis I conducted testing for death, disqualification, first-year and first-term effects going back to 1972 turned up no statistically significant evidence for any of them.
The Liberals’ 6.7% gain on the primary vote likely reflected reduced options for right-of-centre voters, with 7.9% up for grabs from the absent United Australia Party and One Nation. The other right contenders, independent Darren Bergwerf and the Libertarian Party (then the Liberal Democrats), were also in the field last time, and respectively made up a little ground and no ground. Conversely, the entry of Victorian Socialists meant there was more competition for the left-of-centre vote, although their 1.7% only partly accounted for a 3.8% drop in support for the Greens. Animal Justice gained 1.0%, and it seems likely Labor was able to hold level on the primary vote through net gains from the Greens that balanced out net losses to the Liberals.
Talk of a danger to Labor from apathy-driven low turnout does not seem to have been borne out. The votes of 74.2% of the enrolled voters have been counted, already in excess of the 72.5% at the Fadden by-election of last year, and likely to reach 81% after around 12,000 outstanding postals are processed. However, this will still leave it short of the 85.6% in Aston.
Election night commentary
10.34pm. The final result for the night is a 4.0% TCP swing to the Liberals from the Carrum Downs PPVC.
10.08pm. Frankston PPVC TCP result swings 4.5% to Liberal, compared with an election day swing of 3.3% and an existing Labor margin of 6.2%. Only the Carrum Downs PPVC remains to report for the night on TCP.
9.24pm. All election day booths are in on primary and TCP, leaving only the TCP counts for two of the three pre-poll centres, the results of which are easy to broadly predict. All but a fraction of the outstanding vote will consist of perhaps 15,000 postals, of which the Liberals would need about 64%, as compared with 53% from the postals already counted.
8.50pm. Carrum Downs PPVC also yields unremarkable numbers on the primary vote, and my Labor win probability now says 100%.
8.45pm. Frankston PPVC has reported on the primary vote, producing swings almost identical to election day. Nonetheless, the ALP RETAIN call is almost retracted: probability now 0.9902938.
8.42pm. There was apparently a second batch of postals – I had been assuming there would only be one for the night. David Speers says Labor is calling it. Perhaps they’re reading my blog. More likely they know what’s coming in the unreported PPVCs.
8.41pm. For what it’s worth, my Labor win probability has ticked over to 0.9920559, beyond the 0.99 at which my database starts saying “ALP RETAIN”.
8.40pm. Still nothing from the Carrum Downs (12,957 votes cast) and Frankston (12,468) pre-poll voting centres, which are the outstanding points of interest for the night’s count. Labor doing very slightly better on preferences than 2022, with two factors cancelling out: the absence of One Nation and the United Australia Party on the one hand, and the slump in the Greens on the other. With the overall major party vote up 7.6%, it has also mattered less, Labor’s likely win being built on a primary vote lead.
8.08pm. The night’s postal count is likewise a bit better for the Liberals than election day votes, but the 5.9% swing is below what the Liberals would have needed overall. Probability estimate now at 97.0% — I call it at 99%.
8.05pm. The Mount Eliza pre-poll booth is in sooner than I thought — very slightly better for the Liberals than the election day vote, but not enough to change the underlying metric. Another PPVC to back that up is likely to result in my system calling it for Labor.
7.57pm. What I expect over the next hour or so is the outstanding election day booths to report without changing the projection much. The next really interesting data point will be the first pre-poll voting centre that reports, which may or may not show a decisively different dynamic on the early vote. One of the three PPVCs, Mount Eliza, received a relatively modest 4503 votes and probably won’t take too long – I would estimate a bit after 9pm, but these things can be highly variable.
7.51pm. And now the ABC projection is stronger for Labor than mine. I think I may have been wrong in the previous update — this looks like it’s based on booth-matching of the TCP results, and not based on projections of the final primary vote and preference flows as mine are.
7.49pm. As noted, a weak result for the Greens. My “projected primary vote” bar chart records a candidate separately from “others” if they are projected to clear 6% — the Greens are poking around this level, causing their bar to disappear and reappear.
7.47pm. David Speers just cited a 3.3% swing, which would be based entirely on the two-candidate preferred count. My estimate further factors in the booths with primary votes in only — ten as compared with twenty — and has it a bit over 4%. The ABC projections being cited by Antony Green are doing something similar.
7.46pm. Twenty booths now in on the primary vote – over half the election day booths – and the projected two-party swing is settling at a bit over 4%, compared with the 6.3% the Liberals need to win.
7.45pm. If you’re enjoying the Poll Bludger’s results feature, please consider a donation through the “Become a Supporter” button at the top of the page.
7.41pm. Now it’s down to 86% Labor win probability, and the projected swing of 4.2% is now almost exactly the same as the ABC’s.
7.39pm. Further booths — now 15 on the primary vote — leave my Labor win probability estimate in the low nineties, suggesting the most recent results have been a bit below par for them.
7.34pm. Leaving my projections aside, it’s not disputed that the swings point to a 3.9% improvement for the Liberals in terms of their primary vote as compared with Labor’s, which does not suggest they will win.
7.29pm. The projection is now based on the swing in preference flows rather than my pre-determined educated guesses of how preferences will flow, and this has in fact given Labor a further boost. My system is more bullish for Labor than the ABC’s, which I’m a bit nervous about.
7.25pm. My projection is still based on preference estimates, but based on the TCP results that are in to this point, this appear to have been highly accurate. Nonetheless, my projection of the final TCP is about 1% strong for Labor than the ABC’s.
7.22pm. And I must again stress a potential weak link in the probability estimate, which is that it doesn’t account for the potential for a very different dynamic on early reporting election day and later-reporting pre-poll votes, which have been known to happen. For such reasons do I not call the result until it reaches 99%.
7.20pm. With nine booths in on primary and three on TCP, we’re past the point where I can follow which of the newly reporting booths weren’t in already. The most recent result was clearly a less good one for Labor, checking what had been their steady progress on the probability estimate.
7.16pm. Seaford North is the sixth booth in on the primary vote, and it’s swung very modest. My Labor win probability continues creeping up, now at 72%, though still well short of where you would call it.
7.14pm. Also a big drop for the Greens, who often struggle at by-elections, but perhaps not by this much.
7.13pm. Frankston Heights East now in on, I think, both primary and TCP — big 10.9% on Liberal primary vote, but Labor almost steady and 5.1% swing on TCP. Likely dynamic is that Hanson and Palmer votes who were preferencing Liberal anyway are shifting to them on the primary vote, neither being in the contest this time.
7.12pm. Second TCP result is Carrum Downs West, with a swing of about 1.5% to Liberal. A big unknown over the next two hours or so will be whether pre-polls have a different dynamic from election day results — we likely won’t see those results until about 10pm.
7.07pm. The fourth booth on the primary vote, Mount Eliza Central, is comfortably Labor’s best so far, looking like a swing in their favour on TCP — a stark contrast with nearby Mount Eliza North.
7.02pm. The ABC’s projections gel with my own, which is always reassuring from my perspective.
7.01pm. My Informal column seems to be working now, so the problem there may have been on the AEC’s side.
6.58pm. Labor’s bad Mount Eliza North result in on two-candidate preferred, a clean 10.0% swing to Liberal. That suggests a better preference flow for Labor than I was estimating, so their win probability nudges up from 50.6% to 53.0%.
6.56pm. The next two booths, Carrum Downs West and Frankston Heights East, are less bad for Labor — projection now down to the wire.
6.50pm. My system is working, except seemingly for the Informal column of the booth results table.
6.48pm. The first booth in is Mount Eliza North, and while it’s only 579 votes, I have the swing north of what the Liberals need to win, based on preference estimates.
6.28pm. An explainer of the map at the bottom of the results page. At the moment all booth locations are indicated by white dots. When the booth reports on the primary vote, it will change colour to indicate the party that “won” the primary vote there. When it reports on two-candidate preferred, the dot will be replaced by a number indicating the two-candidate preferred result there, colour-coded according to the winning party.
6.18pm. Something to consider while you wait is the electoral geography of Dunkley, which can be observed through the 2022 booth results map at the bottom of the Poll Bludger’s by-election guide. Far the strongest part of the electorate for the Liberals is affluent Mount Eliza at the southern end; Labor is strongest at the northern bayside end and Carrum Downs further inland, and somewhat weaker at Langwarrin at the southern inland end.
6pm. Polls have closed. The link at the top should be operable now and, God willing, the three charts above recording the projected swing (which uses estimates of the final primary vote shares and preference flows, based on the currently available information), the final projected two-candidate preferred result (which is the 2022 result plus the projected swing) and a calculation of the incumbent party’s (in this case Labor) probability of winning the seat based on the the projected TCP and the proportion of the expected total vote that has been counted.
5.40pm. With twenty minutes to go before polls close, welcome to the Poll Bludger’s coverage of the Dunkley by-election count. After 6pm, you will find through the above link live updated results, including full booth details in both tabular and map display (click on the button at the bottom of the page for the latter) and swing-based projections and probability estimates. The main chart displays on the top right will also be shown at the top of this post, if all goes well. This post will offer live commentary as the results come through, the first of which I imagine will be in a bit before 7pm.
Re G @5:24 PM.
So we have about 84,000 votes counted and 7,000 postals to come.
My calculation is that the Labor 2PP will reduce by about 5% of 1/12 —> 0.4%.
William Warnock – a civil war veteran who served in the HoR?
Nah
The thing about Pearse was that he was totally unsuited to be a revolutionary leader and knew that the Easter Rising was doomed but did it anyway. Either a visionary or a feekin eijet.
Oakeshott Country says:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 8:19 pm
“…….. Either a visionary or a feekin eijet.”
*****************
It’s possible to be both at the same time. (I’m pretty sure I’ve voted for candidates who fit this description)
Gsays:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 5:24 pm
@nadia88
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-29778-210.htm
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Thanks G, yes I did see that, but also looking at Antony Green’s site, we have
* 21938 applications,
* 15434 returned
* 7998 counted last night
So my calculations are 7436 of the returned postals are yet to be counted, and approx. 6500 postals have yet to be returned. Perhaps some of that 6500 decided to turn up rather than post their vote. So, my calcs, we are looking at approx 13000 outstanding postals. Keep in mind we have 113000 electors in the seat and only 84642 have cast a vote. There is another 29000 votes to be counted, some of which would be informal/no show, but 29000 out of 113000 is a very high absentee rate. Sorry, I’ve probably made a mistake with all these numbers as it’s not adding up to me but I’m sure i’ve got the numbers correct.
Taylormadesays:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 5:17 pm
nadia88says:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 5:04 pm
Lars – how did you pull that off – 52.5% – right on target.
_____________________
Did Scott come last ?
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Scott got a participation ribbon
Irish Charge De’Affaires in Berlin – the Ambassador Charles Bewley was sacked in 1939 and ended up working for Goebells – but returned to Dublin and lived until 1969 so he was de facto ambassador until 1944.
Oliver Suttonsays:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 5:39 pm
nadia: “… the 2PP … will drop back a tad when the postals (I think about another 8-11k) come through.”
Will it? Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe the projection algorithms used by William and other pundits already factor an estimate of the postal vote differential, based on (recent) historical patterns….
=============================
Not a logarithm Oliver.
Saw that comment you slipped in last night. I’ll get you back a beauty later in the year.
Postals are running 53-47 to Libs. The thing which has wrecked my afternoon is trying to work out how many outstanding postals there are.
nadia88 says:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 8:40 pm
“……….So my calculations are 7436 of the returned postals are yet to be counted, and approx. 6500 postals have yet to be returned.”
********************
Nadia, most of those 6,500 non returned postals never will be.
(I’ve been enjoying your posts)
LVT
You have reminded me of Eduard Hemple, Nazi ambassador to Éire who allegedly was dismantling his illegal radio in the back yard when Taoiseach de Valera arrived to sign the condolence book after the death of Herr Hitler
(Only in Ireland)
Expat wrote, “The two areas that are “traditional” Liberal voter demographics are Langwarrin, which is still more like the conservative eastern suburbs like Ferntree Gully.”
Ferntree Gully is where I live and there is nothing remotely conservative about it. It has returned a Labor state MP in the last two state elections (Jackson Taylor and has returned a Labor MP in the recent Aston by election. It has returned Labor MPs on a regular basis in the past ie Steve Crabb was the Labor MP for over 14 years, as was Peter Milton federally. Please refrain from making these throwaway generalizations.
andrewmcksays:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 8:52 pm
Nadia, most of those 6,500 non returned postals never will be.
=========
Thks andrewmck. Don’t understand why people would bother to apply for a postal, and then go and queue up to vote. Doesn’t make much sense….unless they’re doing a double vote.
Looks like it’s going to have a high abstention rate, often is for by elections.
I think more accurate examples of “Traditional Liberal Outer Eastern Melbourne Suburbs” would probably be Lilydale and Berwick.
It’s a bit difficult for such a label to be attached to many such suburbs though, given the complicated history of that part of the city. Originally the area around Knox was quite friendly to Labor in the 1970’s-80’s, but swung hard to the Liberals in the 1990’s, then has been bouncing between Liberal and Labor quite a lot since the 2000’s.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 5:09 pm
Nadia88 – I am the Way.
===========
Goodness me. More info pls Lars, not a motherhood.
You either have very good connections to the internal unpublished polling of the majors, or you do a lot of thorough research on an electorate you choose to set your sights on. If it’s the latter, I have to say, you’ve done quite a job on Dunkley.
Lucky guesses/prizes – that’s for children. Adults usually have to do a bit more.
You have been quite spot on with your political assessments during Jan/Feb this year too Lars.
Out of interest, and sorry to intrude, but I’m following that “cryptic” conversation between you and OC. I know the names you’re referring to as I’m currently reading a book about Michael Collins written by Tim Pat Coogan. 1920’s/1930’s Irish politics – interesting period & rivetting book.
@nadia88
I recall in a recent election Antony Green made a comment along the lines of “the most reliable way for your vote to be counted is to go to the booth in person”.
I suppose a lot of people who initially apply for a postal vote get a bit worried that maybe they accidentally won’t do the process properly and their vote will simply be discarded due to a dotted t or a crossed i and they won’t know about it, so they change their mind and just go to the booth when they can so there’s AEC workers to guide them if needed.
Very quiet week on polls coming up:
* Monday we’ll have Roy Morgan, late afternoon
* Any day now we should have YouGov (they’re 3 days overdue), so not far away
WB – Just checking the Resolve Political Monitor.
Looks like they’ve updated their latest poll to today 3-Mar-2024.
Link: https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
Can’t see any changes to the primaries from 25-Feb. Will check back tomorrow. Can’t imagine they would bring 2 polls out in the space of a week.
Can’t do a screen shot, but it clearly has 3-Mar-2024 directly above their Outlook index.
@nadia88
There will still be x00’s of postals to come in over the next 2 weeks, the bulk of which will be in the coming days and then start to trickle down.
The important thing is that the envelope has to be postmarked by Saturday 6pm (ie. the close of the poll). Anything received by the AEC tomorrow and onwards postmarked prior to then will be counted. Otherwise, the vote envelope gets set aside and will remain unopened.
There’s a bunch of reasons why someone might apply for a postal and it not be returned – most fairly mundane. It didn’t arrive, they chose not to vote, they meant to vote but then didn’t because reasons, they lost it, it got lost, it got misplaced, they ran out of time, health or wellbeing reasons and it just wasn’t a priority, they decided to vote in person instead, they handed their postal vote in at a polling place, they’re a permanent postal voter who automatically get sent ballot papers and then decide what they’ll do, etc etc.
I don’t have the statistics to hand but the rate of multiple voting in Australia is very very low and the rate of intentional multiple voting is very very very low. There are systems in place where multiple voters are picked up and all are followed up. The overwhelming number of multiple votes are usually confusions or misunderstandings from older people or people who don’t have English as a first language.
nadia: “Don’t understand why people would bother to apply for a postal, and then go and queue up to vote.”
Some of the non-returns would indeed be voters who requested a postal vote (either one-off for this by-election, or on the AEC list on a continuing basis), but then found themselves in the vicinity of a prepoll or polling-day centre and grabbed the opportunity.
Some others would have reached an age where they, or more often their carers, feel they’re no longer competent to vote. And a few, sadly, will have died.
But probably the major category is voters who received a postal vote but then forgot to fill it in and return it.
The 6500 outstanding postal votes represent less than 6% of Dunkley’s enrolment. In general elections, typically 10% of enrolments don’t vote, and it’s undoubtedly a higher proportion for by-elections.
Nadia
Just some banter to see who knows the most about C 20th Irish history.
Tim Pat is highly readable but I wasn’t that impressed by his Collins. His de Valera “Long Fellow, Long Shadow” on the other hand proposes that much of Dev’s contrarianism can be traced to his undoubted bastadry – a well argued case. He concludes with a poem by Brendan Kennelly that sums up that era and I am going to indulge myself by posting an extract.
De Valera at Ninety-Two
Some say I started a civil war.
There are those who say I split the people.
I did not.
The people split themselves.
They could not split me.
I think now I was happiest when I taught
Mathematics to teachers in their training.
From nineteen hundred and six to nineteen sixteen
I taught the teachers.
Then the trouble started.
In jail, I often sat for hours
Especially at evening
Thinking of those mathematical problems
I loved to solve
Here was a search for harmony,
The thrill of difficulty,
The possibility of solution.
Released from jail, I set about
Making a nation,
A vicious business,
More fools among my friends than in my enemies,
Devoted to what they hardly understood.
Did I understand? You must understand
I am not a talker, but a listener.
Men like to talk, I like to listen.
I store things up inside.
I remember what many seem to forget.
I remember my grandfather
Telling of his brother’s burial in Clare.
The dead man was too tall
To fit an ordinary grave
So they had to cut into a neighbour’s plot,
Break the railings round a neighbour’s grave
To bury a tall man.
This led to war between the families,
Trouble among the living
Over a patch o’ land for the dead.
The trouble’s still there. Such things, as you know,
Being a countryman yourself,
Are impossible to settle.
When my grandfather scattered things on the kitchen floor
He used strange words from the Gaelic.
I wonder still about the roots of words.
They don’t teach Latin in the schools now.
That’s bad, that’s very bad.
It is as important to know
Where the words in your mouth come from
As where you come from yourself.
Not to know such origins
Is not to know who you are
Or what you think you’re saying.
I had a small red book at school,
‘Twas full of roots,
I still remember it.
Roots. . . and crops. Origins… and ends.
The woman who looks after me now
Tells me to sip my brandy.
Sometimes I forget I have a glass in my hand
And so I do what I’m told.
I have been blind for years.
I live in a world of voices
And of silence.
I think of my own people, the tall men,
Their strange words, the land
Unmoved by all our passions about it,
This land I know from shore to shore,
The Claremen roaring their support
And all the odds and ends
(What was that word he had for them?)
Scattered on my grandfather’s kitchen floor.
thanks OC.
Very tough country with a lot of problems stemming back generations.
“More fools among my friends than in my enemies” – doesn’t history just keep on repeating itself.
I’m find the book a good read. Got it from an op shop.
It should also be noted Nadia that Lars was the only PBer to successfully predict that KK was unelectable in a single member seat – a very brave prediction at the time
Or to sum up a tough country with many problems:
“ Trouble among the living
Over a patch o’ land for the dead.
The trouble’s still there. Such things, as you know,
Being a countryman yourself,
Are impossible to settle.”
He knows his stuff & i’ve certainly become aware of it just reading his posts this past few months. He had a bit of time off the blog after the Voice fiasco, but has come back. We’re lucky we’ve got some really good posters on the blog at the moment. As you’ve worked out, I listen to both sides of the fence and just keep right out of the personal stuff.
I might have a bit of a breather off the blog myself.
Will try and get back for the Tas election 23-Mar. It’s a biggie. GST could be in play.
Thanks for a great summer all. Been a bit of fun.
nadia88at 8.52 pm
“Postals are running 53-47 to Libs. The thing which has wrecked my afternoon is trying to work out how many outstanding postals there are.”
Currently (AEC site on Sun at 8pm) Belyea is getting 47.45% of postal votes.
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-29778-210.htm
There are also 949 provisional vote envelopes and 301 declaration pre-poll envelopes still to be processed.
If there are say about 250 legitimate postal votes still to arrive in the post soon, that would altogether make about 8,500 votes still to be counted as a maximum. That is a bit more than the almost 8,000 (7,992) postal ballots counted so far, from which Conroy has gained exactly 400 more votes than Belyea. Since the provisional vote types might favour Labor, we could assume Conroy is unlikely to gain more than about another 400 votes on Belyea.
Belyea currently leads by 4,402 votes so the final margin may be about 4,000 votes plus some.
For comparison Peta Murphy’s margin in 2022 was 12,000.
This does not make Dunkley into a marginal seat, for reasons that Dr Bonham explains:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/03/making-seats-marginal-at-by-elections.html
Have Shari Lewis and Lambchop been visiting here recently?
“Don’t understand why people would bother to apply for a postal, and then go and queue up to vote. Doesn’t make much sense….unless they’re doing a double vote.”
Make a mistake in the postal and not realise it (eg, forget to have a witness sign it) or think you’ve made a mistake, would be the main reason I imagine. After that, older people who forgot they’ve sent a postal.
New open thread here — can we please keep this one henceforth for discussion of the count.
Democracy Sausage @ 9.54am
Berowra has never been anything but a safe conservative seat.
Since, the formation of the Liberal Party, it has always returned a LP member to parliament.
Interestingly, parts of Berowra constituted a large section of the now Central Coast seat of Robertson.
The first ALP member for Robertson, Cohen, won this seat due to the growing population within the Gosford region.
It was a subsequent redistribution which created a solely Central Coast region for Robertson.
After 2025, Berowra may be the last of the traditional North Shore, seats of Sydney, to be represented by a Liberal member.
NSW won’t lose a seat but demographic changes require a new seat to be created in south-western Sydney.
Bennelong will continue to track north-west, away from the shores of Sydney Harbour.
I believe that it would be in the best interests of the ALP, The Greens and the Independent members to submit that Bradfield be abolished, the northern section to be included in Berowra and the southern half with North Sydney and Warringah.
in my defence , margin of error
I would have likely been closer if one nation , was in the by election
Hey Macca RB, you are about 4 months off the pace here.
Firstly, NSW does lose a seat in this re-distribution (which was required anyway under the 7 year rule – something almost everyone ignores). Due to the population imbalance, it may be that two seats effectively get abolished and a new one is created.
Bennelong will only continue to track north-west if the seats east of it are all retained – if any of Warringah, North Sydney or Bradfield are effectively abolished or amalgamated, then Bennelong will most likely move east, to some degree.
The Submissions and Comments for the NSW redistribution closed in October and November, so ideas of what the seats should look like are a bit late. We are now probably within 2 months of seeing the Committees draft report.
Personally I agree with your suggestion of Bradfield effectively being abolished. The Labor submission is similar to what you are saying, though the seat to the north of a new North Sydney, retains the name of Bradfield the Labor submission. It is though quite an amalgamation of the current seats of Berrowa and Bradfield and could be given either name (Bradfield would seem more appropriate to me)
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-29778-210.htm
Roughly
16k postals returned
10k postals counted (52.26 Liberal to 47.74 Labor)
5.5k postal envelopes to be processed
There are still 6k envelopes to be returned – a topic covered earlier.
If you take 5k not ever returned x 151 divisons, that’s a lot of admin and costs. It feels like there could be administrative tightenings or adjustments or reminders, etc. that the AEC could look at to reduce this number by an amount.
Not a massive PR blitz; more like an annual nudge – “Do you still want to receive your ballot papers by mail?” reminder. Like an online portal where you opt in for one time or ongoing delivery of your ballot papers and as an electoral event in your area approaches you get a prompt confirming your ongoing intentions.
Obviously the mail just arrived.
16.5k postal envelopes returned
6.2k postal envelopes awaiting processing
5.5k envelopes not yet returned
That will put the current theoretical total postal vote count at around 16k papers.
After a bit of a technical mishap, my results are updating again.
Michelle Grattan reads the Dunkley entrails:
https://citynews.com.au/2024/the-dunkley-by-election-sends-signals/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
If I am reading the numbers correctly, it appears that around 6,000 postal votes have been added to the count today, and that these have split 50/50 (slightly in Labor’s favour).
If I am reading the numbers correctly, it appears that around 6,000 postal votes have been added to the count today, and that these have split 50/50 (slightly in Labor’s favour).
Everyone with their nose to the grindstone today.
14.3k postal envelopes processed
14k postals counted (Liberal 51.31%, Labor 48.69%). Liberal lead of 360 votes.
2.2k postals envelopes awaiting processing
1105 other declaration vote (type) envelopes starting to be processed
I will actually air a dissenting view with regards to the Berowra/Bradfield abolition debate; namely that it would be Berowra that I would get rid of.
My rationale is as follows:
Whilst Hornsby would appear the “hub” for the seat; and at the time of its establishment this was largely the case; there is now very little “community of interest” for much of the seat.
The transport and railway corridors north and south of Hornsby DO gravitate to Hornsby as a service centre. However the vast development of areas such as West Pennant Hills and Cherrybrook now have far easier access to Castle Hill than Hornsby and gravitate accordingly. The rest of the seat is largely semi rural and whilst part of the Hornsby LGA, the “lines of communication” to Hornsby are poor and thus most of this area look to more accessable centres.
This is now also seen with voting with 3 very different patterns in evidence. The most established area along the transport corridor, whilst probably still Lib leaning, can sometimes be quite marginally so. WPH/Cherrybrook votes largely along the lines of the more established areas of the neighbouring Mitchell. The semi rural areas are actually what truly pad out the margin with 2PPs of > 70%.
Given that Berowra is such a hodge-podge of a seat, I would split it up as follows:
– the transport corridor north of Hornsby and south to Pennant Hills/F4 to Bradfield whose southern border would move north of Chatswood (maybe as far as Lindfield) and would lose St Ives and areas east of Arterial Road to Mackellar.
– there can be some possible rejigging of the southern boundary with Bennelong.
– Mitchell moves north to take in WPH & Cherrybrook as well as areas such as Dural/Glenhaven & Galston.
– I would probably look at some of the more northern semi rural booths going to Macquarie as is currently the case with the other Hawkesbury towns/townships. Whether some of the others go with Mitchell or Greenway is open.
– Conversely, you could have Mitchell take in WPH/Cherrybrook and ALL the semi rural parts of Hornsby LGA but this would mean moving it north with resulting flow on impacts for Parramatta & Greenway
If Labor’s primary vote went up, and also got a higher percentage of preferences (according to the live results page), I don’t understand how there can be a swing against labor overall?
G says:
Monday, March 4, 2024 at 4:30 pm
Everyone with their nose to the grindstone today.
14.3k postal envelopes processed
14k postals counted (Liberal 51.31%, Labor 48.69%). Liberal lead of 360 votes.
2.2k postals envelopes awaiting processing
1105 other declaration vote (type) envelopes starting to be processed
______________
Would this be classed as a weak Liberal postal performance?
As I read it, latest blog commentary refers to opinions in the Murdoch media and opinions in the 9 Entertainment media, the authors of the quoted 9 Entertainment article being 2 Liberals defeated by “Teal” candidates at the last election
Hmmm
So credibility given bias?
This is the problem with quoting from the Murdoch/Costello/Stokes media outlets both printed and electronic including television
Bias
Griff at 9.10 pm
“Would this be classed as a weak Liberal postal performance?”
Yes, and not only on postals. The pre-poll votes, which are usually a few percent better than booth votes for the Libs, were this time only 1.5% better for them.
@Steve Clarke – because the Lib’s primary vote went up by more and while the flow in prefs is marginally higher, it’s more influenced by the loss of 30% of the RW smaller parties who preferenced Labor in 2022, but whose 1st preferences now went to the Libs. It’s partly why the 2CP swing was quite mild.
It also reflects the likelihood Labor lost some PV to the Libs, but Labor gained some Greens 2022 1st preferences.
Taking out the donkey vote reversal cf 2022, the swing is 2.5% or slightly less.
Moral Bazpeter win for the Liberals.
Mail has arrived.
21.2k postals issued
18.1k postals returned
Postals processed – 14.35k
Postals awaiting processing – 3.77k
523 other envelopes awaiting processing
Postals counted – 14k
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-29778-210.htm
Expecting a decent batch of postal votes to be added to the tally today, with a spike in the number remaining to be counted yesterday (reflecting votes received, checked, and now waiting for counting).
With over 4,000 votes still to be counted, including absents and provisionals, it will be interesting to see whether Labor continues to do better with these later votes.
Provisional declaration votes counted:
254 ballot papers
Liberal 125 – Labor 122
Still remaining:
Declaration prepoll envelopes awaiting processing -269
Postal envelopes awaiting processing – 3774 + whatever else comes in
Turn out – 80.09%
Informality – 4.2%
Postals counted = 16k
Liberal 50.67%, Labor 49.33%
Still remaining:
Declaration prepoll envelopes awaiting processing = 108
Postal envelopes awaiting processing = 1773 + whatever else comes in
Turnout = 81.85%
Informality = 4.16%
It looks like around 2000 postal votes were counted today, and Labor’s lead increased by around 150, so a very strong performance. My sense is that Labor generally does better with the late counted postal votes than with those counted early – I don’t meant just at this by election, but also more generally in other close counts in recent years.
Declaration prepoll counted = Labor 56 votes, Liberal 46 votes
Postal envelopes received = 18.3k
Postal envelopes awaiting processing = 1777 + whatever else comes in
Turnout: 81.95%