New polling from the past few days:
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead out from 52-48 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Labor 34% (down half), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 4% (down half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1706.
• Two recent issue salience polls – the SECNewgate Mood of the Nation report and JWS Research’s True Issues survey – continue to find cost of living well in the lead as the issue of greatest concern, but with housing affordability and interest rates narrowing the gap. Immigration and border security, while still well down the lists, are up in both surveys, by five points to 13% in the case of JWS Research. The latter’s “performance index” scores across various issues record “population growth” as the issue on which the government has lost the most skin over the past year. The SECNewgate poll was conducted February 1 to 5 from a sample of 1588, while JWS Research was from February 8 to 11 and a sample of 1000.
• DemosAU found 51% supportive and 32% opposed to the tax cut changes in a poll of 1154 respondents conducted from February 1 to 13, while the SECNewgate poll had it at 60% and 21%. The latter also recorded improvement since October on national direction (with the right-wrong direction split narrowing from 37-63 to 44-56) and predictions for the economy, particularly for the “in twelve months” time frame (from 25% better and 48% worse to 39% better and 36% worse).
Also:
• Samantha Hutchinson of the Financial Review reports a field of five has emerged for the looming federal by-election in Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook, including Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce and McKinsey partner Simon Kennedy, who have generally been reckoned the front-runners, and the likewise previously noted Gwen Cherne, Veteran Family Advocate commissioner. The other two are Alex Cooke, head of institutional and private banking at ANZ, and Benjamin Britton, a former United Australia Party candidate and presumably a long shot.
• Western Australian Labor Senator Louise Pratt announced earlier this week she will not contest the next election. Dylan Caporn of The West Australian reports the party’s state secretary, Ellie Whiteaker, has “emerged as the front runner” after confirming her interest in replacing her on the ticket. Whiteaker is a former staffer to Pratt and shares her association with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union.
• Two significant Liberal Party events will be held this weekend: the preselection for the Perth seat of Curtin, which the party lost to teal independent Kate Chaney in 2022, between Matt Moran and Tom White; and a meeting of the New South Wales state council that among things will vote on a motion to expel Mitchell MP Alex Hawke.
• Jake Dietsch of The West Australian reports the Liberal preselection for Forrest, previously thought to be a lock for former Senator Ben Small, will in fact be a contest involving Bunbury councillor Gabi Ghasseb, who won an internal party appeal against his exclusion for submitting his nomination 20 minutes after the deadline (and who has also nominated for state upper house preselection). However, Small “remains the overwhelming favourite”. Incumbent Nola Marino recently announced she would not seek another term.
Andrew_Earlwood:
Saturday, February 24, 2024 at 9:28 am
Had you not included that put-down, it would’ve been more than likely published; it still might. But like so many of your posts, you seem incapable of refraining from personal attacks. You get away with it on the site, but the SMH has strict commenting guidelines.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. There are some more reflective articles on the naval shipbuilding program announced by Marles this week, of varying quality.
Paul Kelly is correct that Marles needs to become a long term Defence minister of substance if the plan is to work. That means reforming defence itself, which hasn’t happened so far.
The criticism of Paul Keating is extreme, and the author should be forced to read this much better article by Mike Gilligan on why current defence policy has abandoned defending Australia.
https://johnmenadue.com/australian-defence-from-self-reliance-to-subsidising-us-war-with-china/
The Hugh White article has some points I’d disagree with (criticism of new GP frigates is misplaced) but two I’d agree with. Creating continuous naval shipbuilding in Adelaide and Perth is dubious when we have so far failed to fund it in one place (Adelaide). How do we pay for both it and AUKUS?
The second White point I agree with is the flawed retention of the Hunter Class frigates. This decision is purely about jobs in Adelaide, not defence. Yet there are many other ways shipbuilding in Adelaide could have been preserved with more benefit and at half the cost. Why BAE frigates? Why did SA premier Malinauskas support them so strongly? Perhaps we could ask Jim McDowell, Chief Executive of SA Deptm of Premier and Cabinet, and for ten years CEO of BAE in Australia. Conflicted?
https://www.themandarin.com.au/96373-former-defence-industry-boss-jim-mcdowell-appointed-sas-top-public-servant/
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Saturday, February 24, 2024 at 9:28 am
My response to Hartcher’s Keating hit job in the Herald today. I don’t expect it will be published, so here it is:
“ This is hopeless. You deliberately misrepresent Keating at every turn in your last paragraphs.
——————
You are right of course. Hartcher is just following his boss, ex Liberal Treasurer Peter Costello’s directive. As Costello believes if there is a war in China there will be big financial benefits for him. Maybe there already is, with consultancy jobs, in the various defence projects underway?
Like ex Liberals Joe Hockey and Christopher Pyne consultancies are in the mix with their hands out.
And Morrison approved AUKUS. Now has a job in the US accepting the AUKUS $billions. Or at least many $millions.
Be assured financial gain, not Australias interests are forefront in their mind.
But Labor falls in behind Liberal policy again.
The ABC’s Global Roaming this morning, 8:30am, with Geraldine Doogue and Hamish McDonald spoke to Defence Strategist, Hugh White.
Who doesn’t agree with most of the latest, including AUKUS, Defence announcements. And especially important is that there has been no public debate. Only debate is in the media, mostly the right wing, supportive media. Yet Australian taxpayers are the ones funding.
Labor members kept quiet, even if there was much misgiving, regarding AUKUS at the Labor conference last year.
The US Alliance will not protect Australia, yet our Defence arrangements are fully designed to support the US in any aggression.
Can Australia Defend Itself?
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/global-roaming/global-roaming-can-australia-defend-itself/103426084
With the world in tumult, decision-makers in Canberra clearly have defence on the brain. In addition to the promise of nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS pact, this week it was announced that our Navy will get its biggest upgrade since World War II.
But is this the best approach for Australia’s defence? Where is the public debate about how this money is being spent?
One of Australia’s most highly regarded defence strategists Hugh White is trying to inspire this national conversation. He joins Geraldine and Hamish to discuss why he thinks AUKUS isn’t what it’s hyped up to be, and what he thinks we should be doing instead.
Guest: Hugh White – Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University.
Re Andrew @9:28. You make some good points. Many readers of Peter Hartcher would agree with them, many won’t, but it would at least give then food for thought, You might improve the probability of your response being published if you were to refrain from calling the author a “fool” and describing his writings as “hopeless”.
Those who are so dedicated to so called “independence form the USA” should again consider what non-aligment did for Ukraine.
Anything short of nuclear deterrence would come back to choosing between US or Chinese dependency. I don’t think the anti-USA camp have an appreciation of what full strategic independence would cost fiscally.
Polls??
This is as Trump would say a FAKE POLL… seriously 40% Greens vote Government was wrong in doing tax changes.. same as LNP voters.. were Greens voting wrong because they thought the changes the original should hold or that Labor should have gone even further with the changes..
Maybe William should have a plausibility scale to append to polls.. he wouldn’t need data analysis to dot it just apply the more valid Pub Test
It would appear ONP tossed a coin only way to account for such even split & lowest undecided… te undecided couldn’t find teh coin to see which way it landed.
As if the USA can be considered a particularly reliable ally given its current trajectory.
After Donald Trump was issued a $355 million fine in the New York Fraud case, conversations began about where the money would come from. NBC News’ Vaughn Hillyard spoke to Chris LaCivita, who is expected to take over the RNC’s operations. He conveyed that the party will not be using the funds on Trump. “No,” he said simply while in South Carolina. He was asked to clarify the answer and responded: “F–king no.”
‘Bizzcan says:
Saturday, February 24, 2024 at 10:46 am
Those who are so dedicated to so called “independence form the USA” should again consider what non-aligment did for Ukraine.
Anything short of nuclear deterrence would come back to choosing between US or Chinese dependency. I don’t think the anti-USA camp have an appreciation of what full strategic independence would cost fiscally.’
———————-
It is a matter of risk management. Ukraine has been badly let down by GOP legislators and there is zero chance of predicting what the GOP rabbits in the House or the Senate will do from one day to another.
We have zero idea of what Trump POTUS II would do in any given circumstance involving the defence of Australia.
What is happening is that we are faced with growing regional instability so our risk exposure is increasing at the same time as the risk mitigation strategy is becoming increasingly unreliable.
We need Plan B because Plan A is getting threadbare.
Sceptic
The Greens have spent years bashing Labor for just about everything including stuff that was blatantly untrue.
Why should anyone expect them to stop suddenly because of the S3 Revamp?
A future Aussie star. What a legend!
https://m.facebook.com/IndiaToday/videos/australian-toddler-hugo-heath-flaunted-his-batting-prowess-at-just-the-age-of-3t/1492434474986127/
‘wranslide says:
Saturday, February 24, 2024 at 10:50 am
As if the USA can be considered a particularly reliable ally given its current trajectory.’
———————-
Bingo.
‘Irene says:
Saturday, February 24, 2024 at 10:37 am
….
Can Australia Defend Itself?
…………………’
————————
Sure. Get rid of the ships, planes, tanks, helos, large missiles and turn the ADF into a Light Mobile Force.
Doddle.
Isn’t running down the US just enabling XI and Putin and just aiding the anti western Left? That’s what I heard.
Astronomers have discovered two tiny moons orbiting Neptune and one circling Uranus, bringing the number of their known moons to 16 and 28 respectively.
Uranus’ new moon, the first detected around the ice giant in over two decades and possibly the smallest of its ilk, is just 5 miles (8 kilometers) wide; it takes 680 days to complete one orbit around Uranus. In comparison, one Mars’ moons named Deimos, considered to be among the tiniest known moons in our solar system, is 8 miles (13 km) wide.
The new moon of the blue-green planet is currently referred to as “S/2023 U1” while it awaits being named for a Shakespearean character, according to a statement by Carnegie Institution for Science (or Carnegie Science).
The brighter of Neptune’s two new moons is provisionally named “S/2002 N5.” At 14 miles (23 km) wide, this newly discovered satellite seems to be in a 9-year orbit around Neptune. The fainter moon, currently assigned the name “S/2021 N1,” is 8.6 miles wide (14 km) and circles Neptune once every 27 years. Both Neptunian moons will be assigned permanent names based on sea gods and nymphs in Greek mythology.
https://www.space.com/new-moons-discovered-uranus-neptune
‘nath says:
Saturday, February 24, 2024 at 11:12 am
Isn’t running down the US just enabling XI and Putin and just aiding the anti western Left? That’s what I heard.’
——————–
Nathing doing.
Which BW will we get today? The extreme wokester? The men’s right advocate? The defender of western civilisation or the one who wants to abandon the US alliance?
‘nath says:
Saturday, February 24, 2024 at 11:16 am
Which BW will we get today? The extreme wokester? The men’s right advocate? The defender of western civilisation or the one who wants to abandon the US alliance?’
———————
nathing doing.
This fits with my perceptions of TS and her following (albeit, I know nothing much about her)
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/culture/2024/02/21/the-exclusionary-empowerment-taylor-swift
Germany legalised cannabis use yesterday becoming the largest country in the world to do so nationwide. Many USA states have done so, but on the federal level it is still illegal.
From the Guardian re the Georgia prosecution of Trump:
But on Friday, lawyers for the former president submitted cellphone data tracking Wade’s movements before he was hired by Willis. It appears to contradict Wade’s testimony that he visited her home no more than 10 times before that date.
The court submission also appears to show that that Wade twice arrived at Willis’s home late at night and left early the next morning before they say their relationship became intimate. Last week, both testified that they did not spend the night together at Willis’s home before he was hired.
Oh FFS !
Labor are a disgrace.
‘Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, February 24, 2024 at 12:07 pm
From the Guardian re the Georgia prosecution of Trump:
But on Friday, lawyers for the former president submitted cellphone data tracking Wade’s movements before he was hired by Willis. It appears to contradict Wade’s testimony that he visited her home no more than 10 times before that date.
The court submission also appears to show that that Wade twice arrived at Willis’s home late at night and left early the next morning before they say their relationship became intimate. Last week, both testified that they did not spend the night together at Willis’s home before he was hired.’
———————————–
FFS.
Nixon on post Cold War Russia: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/7Ors4xO2Ef8
As as aside, I wonder why so many critical of the West’s past colonialism (and there’s plenty to criticise) seem to give Russia a free pass?
Kudos to the engineers who software patched a NASA experimental LIDAR navigation package to bypass a faulty internal system (on the go) which allow Odysseus to land on the moon – but trip. Perhaps they shouldn’t have let Barnaby Joyce “help”.
Whoops – forgot the link
Kudos to the engineers who software patched a NASA experimental LIDAR navigation package to bypass a faulty internal system (on the go) which allow Odysseus to land on the moon – but trip. Perhaps they shouldn’t have let Barnaby Joyce “help”link
https://www.space.com/intuitive-machines-odysseus-moon-lander-tipped-over
Boy I blew that.
The Liberals, bullshit stacked on bullshit.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2024/02/24/no-peter-there-not-flotilla-boats-coming#mtr
Going through some old stuff I came across a list of simple keyboard emojis. Someone was asking about them a few days (week) ago. Everyone knows that a colon and right parenthesis makes a smiley face, but there’s more. (Caveat. I’ve not tried them all.)
In memory of KayJay.
Listened to Hugh White. He is suggesting we do need submarines, the goal of not building any is going to succeed and it is wrong headed. We won’t be getting any from the US because they want 60 and they only have 40
The question is, what happens when it is realized by all our decades long effort not to build submarines has been successful.
Will defense come out and say, we don’t need any, or will we try and actually build some.
Erghhhh…..
Dragged myself out of bed an hit the news with a coffee. Lots of crap things happening. doGs above i worry about Trump still being in play. 🙁
Very sad whats still going on in Ukraine. Seems odd to me that the holdup with the latest tranche of US aid (most important being ammunition) is failure to pass a bill that commentary indicates would pass easily ….. IF the Repuglican Speaker would bring it to the floor. This delay seems nothing but very partisan game playing. Seriously disgusting crap.
Still, latest news from Ukraine is pretty WTF??
https://www.twz.com/air/another-one-of-russias-prized-a-50-radar-planes-shot-down-ukraine-claims
Seems to be pretty credible report at the moment. Appears that the A50 was near its base to the east of the Azov Sea and was at quite low level. Quite good video of it popping flares, one flare targeted by a missile, then another missile hit the A50. This happened a long way from the active front lines.
Apparently the Ukrainians are claiming as a shootdown, while the Russians are trying to “save face” by claiming its a friendly fire incident.
So either the Ukrainians are being REALLY inventive, or the Russian Air Defense is REALLY crap, or there is some new system in play?
Most likely from whats known a the moment is that the Ukrainians had special forces with MANPADS hanging around an airfield the Russians though was safe. And they got VERY lucky.
The Russians never had many A50’s (its their equivalent of AWACS / Wedgetail) even at the height of the Cold War. I think they started this war with 7-9 in service, have lost 1 -2 damaged on the ground, and if this is confirmed, 2 shot down destroyed. Also, with sanctions, they have virtually NO capacity to build more. China may, possibly, but probably not, be able to supply some components? These are complex aircraft / systems. In the West a new Wedgetail (using an existing ex civil 737 air-frame to start with) takes 3 years to get out of the factory much less into service.
Bizarre that daS Rusky sees it as less damaging to claim ineptitude.
What are the people prosecuting the Wade/Willis story hoping to achieve, and what are they likely to achieve? As far as I can tell the most they can hope to achieve is to have an extremely angry former prosecutor assisting her replacement at the upcoming criminal trial. And the least (from their perspective) is an extremely angry still current prosecutor getting stuck into them at the same upcoming criminal trial.
As for all things T****, what you see is performative.
The DA’s office also argued that there is evidence showing Willis and Wade were not in the same place on the dates listed, including “at work at the Fulton County District Attorney’s Office AND VISTING THE THREE CRIME SCENES WHERE A MASS MURDER MOTIVATED BY RACE AND GENDER BIAS HAD TAKEN PLACE.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/23/politics/private-investigator-trump-georgia-fani-willis/index.html
FFS about sums it up.
there’s a smattering of astronomy on this thread so here is my two bob
what do we know about what the universe currently looks like?
is it bigger, smaller? does most of it even exist?
there is a fair question as all perception of space outside our solar system is considerably delayed. the universe as seen is very much past.
i’ll never forgive albo for letting dutton and the ragbag coalition back in the room due his (albo’s) amateurish handling of the referendum .. labor should be 56-44 now. we all worked hard to get Labor back in and what did he do?
hungry jack @ #84 Saturday, February 24th, 2024 – 12:48 pm
I’m not even convinced anything exists outside Poll Bludger. The rest of the so-called “universe” may just be stuff made up by William, who is actually an AI chatbot.
“i’ll never forgive albo for letting dutton ”
Ahhhhh …of course as PM Albo is invincible and omnipotent. All that happens everywhere and every-when, done by anybody is his responsibility. Anything good that happens is actually because the Greens pushed for it and if anything remotely bad happens then Albo needs to be deposed (#leadershit), hung drawn and tickled with long feathers in public …….
Albo will of course lose the next election because he will never be forgiven for not giving his Taylor Swift concert ticket to someone more deserving. Just ask Susssssan.
“we all worked hard to get Labor back in”
So Hamburger ….. you were on Morrisons campaign then?? 🙂
I hope any aliens visiting earth do not go via the moon.
They will see the American probe now on its side and the Japanese probe upside down.
By the way Mcdonalds is about to introduce AI into 100s of drive throughs in the states via voice recognition.Coming to Australia next year!
Immaca – It is a probably a combination of factors. It might be the case that the Russian are using their aircraft in a more aggressive manner than they have for the past 12 months as they are trying to attack Ukrainian positions in conjunction with their ground forces who have been going on offensive.
Also some of the air defence weapons that Ukraine has been supplied with do have very long ranges (150km).
Why are Labor unable to govern ?
They outsource Govt to the RBA
They outsource Govt to the fossil fuel industry
They outsource Govt to the big 4 consultancies
They outsource Govt to the ACTU
They outsource Govt to the US defence industry
Lars
I am reluctant to provide you with free advice, however I will this time.
Pro Tip: don’t believe anything MAGA Republicans or their paid for shills claim to be true
You’re welcome
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, February 24, 2024 at 1:40 pm
Yeah hard to argue with this. Labor is trying to remove its power to protect mortgage holders and renters from unreasonable interest rates. Outsourcing to the unaccountable technocrats at the RBA is a breathtaking attack on democracy. We’ll work across the aisles to knock it off. pic.twitter.com/PjR3lv7yuZ— Nick McKim (@NickMcKim) February 24, 2024
They outsource Govt to the RBA
They outsource Govt to the fossil fuel industry
They outsource Govt to the big 4 consultancies
They outsource Govt to the ACTU
They outsource Govt to the US defence industry
———————-
Removing any power the government, Labor, has over the Reserve Bank would be a mistake.
Why does Dr Chalmers think this is a good idea? Is it his extreme right wing dream taking over?
A vision of a Chalmers led future government?. All services of government given to business, with no government involvement?
Pension system, Medicare, …abandoned?
In the USA most home loans are of 30year fixed rate term.
If the rate drops, a lower rate can be negotiated in this 30 year term.
But, in the 1930’s, when this policy was chosen, Australian politicians were not interested in applying it for us.
Of course many other policies are outsourced to the groups above. As Keating said Australian politicians are too timid.
Hate making decisions to benefit all Australians.
Worry about what the media will say, what the above groups will say, what wealthy people will say,…
Labor politicians are not our representatives.
B.S.F
The Ukrainians still have some the Soviet era S200 SAMs – from the 1960s. They have a range of 300km.
Apparently these were used to shoot down the Russian AWAC. Something the nobbled modern western air defence does not have range for. The Patriots are very good, especially at intercepting missiles, but their range is only 100km.
Outsourcing Govt like the L/NP and Labor do is effectively replacing democracy with corporatocracy.
Do L/NP and Labor partisans realise who they are giving effective power to …? It’s certainly NOT to their party representatives.
So sprocket, any chance of the US congress actually granting the aid to UKR? Last media I saw was there would be a motion to put it to the house floor (but that was some weeks ago now)?
It will be humiliating for the US if the Russians make some sort of breakthrough because UKR is starved out.
‘imacca says:
Saturday, February 24, 2024 at 12:46 pm
….’
—————————-
Interesting post, IMO. The A50, like the Wedgetail, would be an extremely valuable military target during a war – partly because of the capital and operating costs but mostly because it is a prodigious force multiplier. I would have thought that they have been designed to operate many hundreds of km away from any practicable missile launch areas.
‘Irene says:
Saturday, February 24, 2024 at 1:50 pm
….
Medicare, …abandoned?
….’
——————-
*wry grin*
”
”
Although GOP is running like this ( IMO, they tied themselves in knots), people who want to vote Biden is still at 34% as Reuters- Ipsos poll and astonishingly 40% for Trump
Any sign of Greensborough Growler lately? He was here nearly every day for a while but now seems to have vanished.
Funny, that.