The Financial Review has a federal poll from Freshwater Strategy, the pollster’s first for the paper since mid-December, though it conducted one for the News Corp papers in early January. It has Labor leading 51-49, after its previous two polls both recorded a dead heat. There is little change on the primary vote, with Labor on 31% and the Coalition on 38%, respectively steady and down one from both the two previous polls, and the Greens on 14%, up one from the December poll and steady from January.
A preferred prime minister measure has Anthony Albanese leading Peter Dutton 42-38, little changed from 43-39 in December. A question on the tax cut amendments finds 44% supportive, 26% indifferent and 15% opposed, with 32% expecting to be better off, 12% worse off and 43% anticipating no difference. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1049.
Morrison and Pratt?
Forgotten this?
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/donald-trump-praises-prime-minister-scott-morrison-at-opening-of-anthony-pratts-new-factory/news-story/becb5e7096887f79859b63dec5ab1cb8
Boerwar @ #1995 Friday, February 23rd, 2024 – 7:31 pm
Doubt, distort, deflect, delay, deny.
Irene says:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 6:17 pm
Another war will likely be started with lies that initiated the Vietnam (American ) and Iraq wars.
————————————————
While we’re talking about the lies the U.S. tells to start wars:
“Remember the Maine! To hell with Spain!”
‘The sinking of the Maine incited United States’ passions against Spain, eventually leading to a naval blockade of Cuba and a declaration of war.’
Source: loc.com
‘Maine was sent to Havana Harbor to protect U.S. interests during the Cuban War of Independence. She exploded and sank on the evening of 15 February 1898, killing 268 sailors, or three-quarters of her crew. In 1898, a U.S. Navy board of inquiry ruled that the ship had been sunk by an external explosion from a mine. However, some U.S. Navy officers disagreed with the board, suggesting that the ship’s magazines had been ignited by a spontaneous fire in a coal bunker…An investigation by Admiral Hyman Rickover in 1974 agreed with the coal fire hypothesis, penning a 1976 monograph that argued for this conclusion.’
‘The Spanish–American War[b] (April 21 – December 10, 1898) began in the aftermath of the internal explosion of USS Maine in Havana Harbor in Cuba, leading to United States intervention in the Cuban War of Independence. The war led to the United States emerging predominant in the Caribbean region,[15] and resulted in U.S. acquisition of Puerto Rico, Guam, and the Philippines. It also led to United States involvement in the Philippine Revolution and later to the Philippine–American War.’
Source: Wikipedia
Grant_ExLibris at 6.44 pm, Lars at 6.48 pm and Kirsdarke at 6.49 pm
Kirsdarke, Nathan Conroy has not resigned from the position of Frankston Mayor; rather, he did something quite different. See:
“Effective Tuesday 16 January 2024, Frankston City Mayor Nathan Conroy has taken leave from Council to contest the Federal seat of Dunkley in the by-election to be held on Saturday 2 March 2024.”
https://www.frankston.vic.gov.au/Council/Current-Councillors/Mayor-Cr-Nathan-Conroy
That was done at short notice during the middle of the summer holidays, and while his deputy was either away or scheduled to go away soon. That upset many of the Councillors, including the Deputy Mayor Liam Hughes, whose very youthful photo is at:
https://www.frankston.vic.gov.au/Council/Current-Councillors/Deputy-Mayor-Cr-Liam-Hughes
The gold standard was set by Kristy McBain, who resigned as Mayor of Bega Valley Shire Council in March 2020, over three months before the Eden-Monaro by-election in July.
“McBain resigned as mayor and councillor in March 2020 to contest the July 2020 Eden-Monaro by-election for the Labor Party. She won the seat for the party with 50.4% of the two-party-preferred vote and was sworn in as a member of parliament on 24 August 2020.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kristy_McBain
The imposition of high rise on Frankston CBD has been a contentious issue for many months. See the image at:
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/melbourne-mornings/mayor-great-wall-of-frankston/102013160
Entropysays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:34 pm
Mexicanbeemersays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:18 pm
Pueosays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:13 pm
The private Katy Perry party at the Pratt home is a different fish kettle. That looks like hob-knobbing with a billionaire and/or it looks like he is being used as a hired monkey. That is harder to defend.
Sometimes as PM you have to take one for team Australia… Sounds like a kettle of sour grapes to me.
—————–
Would you dismiss it if Morrison had done the same thing?
===================================================
I wasn’t here but are you saying “Pueo”criticised Morrison for doing the same thing?. Like in this case:
“On Saturday night, the Pratt family again welcomed Treasurer Josh Frydenberg back to the family estate for another all-out bash, this time joined by the Prime Minister Scott Morrison. And when we say “all out”, we mean that the red wine served on the night happened to be Penfolds Grange.”
————————–
Pueo said criticizing Albo was sour grapes but did they believe that or was it a partisan defense of Albo.
Dr Doolittlesays:
Thursday, February 22, 2024 at 2:38 pm
nadia88 on Wed at 12.45 pm
“Probably your Point 3 regarding the state of polling.
So with Dunkley, the Liberal floor at the 2022 poll was 32%.
There will be a proportion of ex-Lib voters (they lost 7% on primary at 2022), who will return to mother cow, lets say 3% (less than half).”
Thanks for your reply and interest in psephology.
==========================================================
Is there a chance that you have, unwittingly, done some double counting re a swing to Libs?..
On that basis, how can you project any swing to the Libs at all, based just on national polling?
My Answer: Based on the Bludgertrack Primaries, which indicate a 1.7% swing to the Libs since the 2022 election (nationwide), and a much bigger swing to ONP. I don’t know how BT calculates it’s figures, but it is about the only thing I can find which converts polls to a trend. Mark the Ballot also runs a ticker, as does Kevin Bonham. To say there has been a trend towards the LNP since the Voice referendum is reality, it’s not an anti-ALP comment – it’s just accepting the public polling numbers and watching how the mathematicians/psepholigists spit them out to determine a trend. The trend has been to the LNP since October 2023 from what I read. In fact, there have been two polls in the past 9 days which have the ALP primary back at 31%. This is ghastly.
You: And if, as you estimate, 4.5% of the Palmer + Hanson vote in 2022 (7.8% combined) goes to the Libs, then that gets their primary to 36.5%, not 39%.
My Answer: OK – add another 1.7 and you have the Libs on 38.2%, and add a bit more because he is the local Mayor and has a profile.
You: The Lib primary in 2019 was 39.9%, which was their lowest primary in Dunkley until then.
My answer: True. But it was 5 years ago and the boundaries have changed. I’m surprised they won with a primary of 39%
You: Hanson, after all, endorsed the S3 changes.
My Answer: Correct, she did.
You: There would need to be some interest in the by-election beyond a vague awareness that it will be decided on Sat week.
My answer: I think there is minimal interest in Victoria, and nationwide, because it doesn’t impact upon the government’s majority. This is another factor which may cause the Lib vote to rise slightly.
Comment on pre-polling:
I think it’s here to stay. Hard to really compare the trends because of Covid-19. I suspect the parties will try and reduce the time period for pre-polling to say a week, or restrict eligibility. Reason: It’s one thing to have party volunteers organised for election day, but it must be a nightmare “manning the booths” for 3 weeks leading up to an election. Most of us hate trying to find our way through all the volunteers shoving HTV cards in your face (can be like a rugby scrum), which is the reason I suspect pre-polling is quite popular with the public (ie: less volunteers shoving HTV cards in your face).
You: Another unknown worth considering is which type of voters are least likely to turn out in the by-election.
My answer: If they don’t turn up, they don’t count and they get a fine in the mail.
You: Conroy is talked up by Jeff Kennett but he refused to debate Jodie Belyea and the Greens candidate on ABC recently, requesting his own, isolated radio-sphere. See:
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/melbourne-drive/labor-greens-dunkley-election-panel/103497170
My answer: Probably true. Lib candidates don’t really want to spend time on the ABC due to the potential, or belief, of a hostile interview, or possibly because the ABC ratings are fairly low and there is not much point. Having said that ABC 774’s rating are fairly high in Melb, so I may be wrong on that point. The only people upset by a Lib not turning up to an ABC interview would be the ABC listeners, who have probably already made their mind up anyway.
You: ‘On voter engagement in Dunkley Samaras finds little interest:
My comment: True, as mentioned above
I listened to the Michelle Grattan podcast with Antony Green, Tim Costello and Kos Samaras.
Link: https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-antony-green-kos-samaras-and-tim-costello-on-dunkley-contest-223961
* Green played a straight bat
* Costello intimated that the Lib may win
* Samaras – sorry he’s difficult to read
Couple of other factors in Dunkley:
* The state Libs seem to have closed ranks around Conroy. I understand the Lib factions hate each other in Vic, but there seems to be a pause with this campaign. Labor needs to keep ramming home the Pesutto v Deeming issue, because that is where the Vic Lib wedge is. Labor needs to prize it open, and not waste time on an ABC “townhall” thing which simply provides the Greens with a platform.
* How long as Belyea been an ALP member. I’m hearing, not long. This is important because she is reliant on the local branch members to “man the booths”. ALP branch members, and probably LNP branch members, don’t like someone being shoe horned into a seat (if this is the case).
Let’s not discuss “Fowler in 2022” or “Gilmore in 2019”. The local dedicated members hate it.
So, I stand by my gut feeling.
* LNP should top the Primaries in Dunkley, and I suspect the ALP will win the seat after preferences, roughly around the 51.5 to 48.5 2PP mark. I’ll have a bit of a think about that second part and drop a line next week sometime.
… and per the Pseph stuff – yes I love it. Love it when Antony Green or KB provide the reality check of writs/noms/earliest election date.
Catch up Sunday night for Newspoll! In fact, we’ll have quite a few polls out next week after this dry period.
* Sunday – Newspoll
* by Tues – Roy Morgan and Essential
* Thurs arvo – YouGov
* and hopefully Resolve will finally publish.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:33 pm
Pueosays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:31 pm
Would you dismiss it if Morrison had done the same thing?
We wouldn’t have heard about it if Morrison was invited.
—————-
That’s not the point but it would have been found out.
=================================================
He did it and it was known. See my earlier post. As far as i know nobody made a fuss about the PM and his treasurer attending. Do you have any information to the contrary?.
Player One says:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:37 pm
…Doubt, distort, deflect, delay, deny.
…’
————-
projection.
Entropysays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:38 pm
Mexicanbeemersays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:33 pm
Pueosays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:31 pm
Would you dismiss it if Morrison had done the same thing?
We wouldn’t have heard about it if Morrison was invited.
—————-
That’s not the point but it would have been found out.
=================================================
He did it and it was known. See my earlier post. As far as i know nobody made a fuss about the PM and his treasurer attending. Do you have any information to the contrary?.
————–
Using Morrison because we don’t know who the next liberal PM is.
So the learned Herr Doktor Doolittle – nadia88 has explained her call, what’s your prediction for Dunkley?
‘Rewi says:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 8:30 pm
Don’t think I missed your equally slanderous suggestion the other night that I support Putin and Xi, either.
Irredeemably humourless, permitted to daily spray the product of your morning enema at all and sundry.
What a princely life it must be!’
—————–
Uh huh.
Entropy says:
He did it and it was known. See my earlier post. As far as i know nobody made a fuss about the PM and his treasurer attending. Do you have any information to the contrary?.
_______
My guess is that is probably attracted some critical commentary around these parts.
@Dr Doolittle at 9:38pm
Thanks for clearing that information up.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:40 pm
Entropysays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:38 pm
Mexicanbeemersays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:33 pm
Pueosays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:31 pm
Would you dismiss it if Morrison had done the same thing?
We wouldn’t have heard about it if Morrison was invited.
—————-
That’s not the point but it would have been found out.
=================================================
He did it and it was known. See my earlier post. As far as i know nobody made a fuss about the PM and his treasurer attending. Do you have any information to the contrary?.
————–
I’m using Morrison because we don’t know who the next liberal PM is.
========================================================
Morrison and Frydenberg attended Pratt’s party as PM and Treasurer in Feb 2022. You don’t need another LNP PM example as we already have one here. I’m asking when the LNP PM did just that did anyone make a fuss over it?. In the way some people are trying to make a fuss over Albo attending.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/pratt-pm-do-the-double-on-the-party-front-at-raheen-20220220-p59y32.html
‘Rainman says:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:37 pm
Irene says:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 6:17 pm
Another war will likely be started with lies that initiated the Vietnam (American ) and Iraq wars.
————————————————
While we’re talking about the lies the U.S. tells to start wars….’
======================
Just to show how it is done, it is just as well that chaps like Putin only ever start their wars by telling the truth.
Entropy
Morrison and Frydenberg attended Pratt’s party as PM and Treasurer in Feb 2022. You don’t need another LNP PM example as we already have one here. I’m asking when the LNP PM did just that did anyone make a fuss over it?. In the way some people are trying to make a fuss over Albo attending.
—————-
But the question to Peuo was about where they were coming from in saying its sour grapes.
nathsays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:46 pm
Entropy says:
He did it and it was known. See my earlier post. As far as i know nobody made a fuss about the PM and his treasurer attending. Do you have any information to the contrary?.
_______
My guess is that is probably attracted some critical commentary around these parts.
=================================================
Possibly at the time but obviously nobody remembers it now. Even though they did it around 3 months before the election and a couple weeks before they delivered their early 2022 budget.
Maybe the Murdoch media and the LNP were running that fabricated mean girls gutter story at that time. So Josh and Scott could party with Pratts?.
I’m not following you Entropy, but that’s ok, there are many mysteries I can’t explain.
nathsays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:56 pm
I’m not following you Entropy, but that’s ok, there are many mysteries I can’t explain.
================================================
My point was nobody seems to remember Morrison and Frydenberg attending Pratts party bash in February 2022. Possibly because the Murdoch press was running lots of other trashier stories at the time.
My view is no politicians should be going to private events at Raheen. It’s a massive conflict of interest to be dining with the same interests you are meant to be regulating.
It was wrong with the last government and its wrong with this government.
Evidently for some on here the ethics standard is if ScoMo done it – then it follows its ok for Labor.
Personally I couldn’t party at Raheen. I would be seething with jealousy.
nadia888
Kevin Bonham posted this week or last that on his tracker there has been a trend back to Labor since last November. You could see a bit of this in the Bludgertrack primary vote graph.
So to say the trend has been to LNP since the Referendum is actually unclear, and possibly incorrect.
William has advised that his trend line is conservative – in that it does not quickly react to possible changes, but waits till there is considerable evidence that the past rend has been broken.
The next 2 weeks will be very interesting to see where the national polls sit – the Labor 2PP on Blugertrack could jump quickly to 52/48, if there are more 53/48 results.
PS – I reckon one of those ALP 31 Primary votes you mention is the Essential Report figure which excludes undecided – it basically equals a 33. So bang on the current average.
Also in Dec. 2020:
PM and treasurer bill taxpayers for private jet to Lachlan Murdoch’s Christmas party
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/04/pm-and-treasurer-bill-taxpayers-for-private-jet-to-lachlan-murdochs-christmas-party
“The party was filled with celebrities, rich-listers and politicians, including Australia’s richest man, Anthony Pratt, the former NSW premier Mike Baird and the Crown casino boss, John Alexander.”
Pueosays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 10:05 pm
Also in Dec. 2020:
PM and treasurer bill taxpayers for private jet to Lachlan Murdoch’s Christmas party
———–
Your sour grapes defense was political.
nathsays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 10:04 pm
Personally I couldn’t party at Raheen. I would be seething with jealousy.
=========================================================
Now that’s a honest answer. If LVT was honest we would hear the same thing from their posts to i suspect. Instead we just hear more class envy disguised as purity of actions.
Of course branch motions by either party have more impact on the political parties then silly businesspeople paying $50K per ticket to dine with a senior politician.
Presumably if I bought a very expensive meal that’s not a donation (and disclosable) its just a very expensive steak?
Entropy says:
Now that’s a honest answer.
________________
Well, as far back as I can remember, I always wanted to be a billionaire. To me being a billionaire was better than being President of the United States.
nathsays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:56 pm
I’m not following you Entropy, but that’s ok, there are many mysteries I can’t explain.
_____________________
It will be a whataboutery.
It’s his stock in trade.
TPOF says:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 5:06 pm
You bleed so selectively it should be bottled and sold off as unicorn juice.
—————————————————————————
The Revolution will not be fought with unicorn juice.
Really?
Was attacking Albo “political” too, or just “class warfare”?
nathsays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 10:14 pm
Entropy says:
Now that’s a honest answer.
________________
Well, as far back as I can remember, I always wanted to be a billionaire. To me being a billionaire was better than being President of the United States.
=======================================================
While nearly all of us would like to have more money. I think i would be satisfied well before a billion though. As far Pratts party. I suspect nearly all of us if invited would go. Just to see how the other half live and we all probably would be a bit envious. Certainly of his mansion. Though after the shock and awe of the surrounds. I suspect his parties might turn out a little boring after awhile.
Pueosays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 10:24 pm
Your sour grapes defense was political.
Really?
Was attacking Albo “political” too, or just “class warfare”?
———————
You said B.S Fairman’s comment was sour grapes but was that a personal or political view but either answer is fine because its about where are you coming from.
Taylormadesays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 10:16 pm
nathsays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:56 pm
I’m not following you Entropy, but that’s ok, there are many mysteries I can’t explain.
_____________________
It will be a whataboutery.
It’s his stock in trade.
==================================================
You are again correct. As people were making a fuss of PM Albo attending a party in the Pratt mansion in Feb 2024. So i pointed out nobody appears to have made a fuss of PM Morrison and Treasurer Frydenberg attending the same party 2 years earlier in Feb 2022 in the Pratt Mansion. So yes it is whataboutery connected by the most flimsy of pretence. Lucky you are here to call it out or i might have got away with it too.
Facebook – Ballarat PMAV
All Members I had an Urgent call from Search and Rescue Victoria asking if we could possibly help Rescue Victoria in the search for Missing Ballarat woman Samantha Murphy on this Saturday
We are looking for a few members to be parried up with some of the teams to search some areas of interest with gold detectors.
Please help if you can.
_____________________
Am doing this tomorrow. We may find something with our detectors that could help with the investigation.
Should be an interesting day. Meet and register at the Eureka centre at 10am.
Vest, whistle and lunch supplied.
Good man TM.
@Taylormade
I feel very sad and frightened about the situation with Samantha Murphy. I really hope she is found alive and well, but realistically the circumstances so far seem to make that very unlikely.
I wish all the best for the most ideal outcome that she is located alive, safe and well.
Maybe a good idea for Albo not to visit Dunkley at all keep it out of the headlines.
The last famous kidnapping in oz was Cleo found hidden in a house nearby.
Will history repeat ?
nadia88 at 9.38 pm, Lars at 9.45 pm
Thanks for your detailed consideration. We seem to have two disagreements, one empirical and the other a matter of interpretation (though the empirical one involves that too).
Empirically, there is a full percentage point difference between Bludgertrack and Dr Bonham’s estimate of current average polling (52.4% to Labor TPP). Interesting.
The Dunkley by-election may test them a bit, but the broad point is that this is far from a precise set of formulations. The other point is: what happens over summer, especially if there is a significant announcement in January? Arguably, the older, 2023 polls are stale.
The interpretive issue involves this statement, that last bit of which I find unconvincing:
“I think there is minimal interest in Victoria, and nationwide, because it doesn’t impact upon the government’s majority. This is another factor which may cause the Lib vote to rise slightly.”
I draw a link between little public interest in the electorate in the by-election and no rise in the Lib vote, other factors being equal. As detailed before, I think other factors help Labor.
Why? Dutton gave one answer, which is the specific nature of the by-election, being the first time a sitting female MHR has tragically died whilst in office. Dutton was right about that.
The electors of Dunkley know the reason why they are voting is because of the tragic death of the former member. While Dr Bonham found no clear evidence generally of a sympathy vote for the party of the lamented former member, it will depend on the individual circumstances. If there ever was a situation where such a party sympathy vote exists, it will be this one.
You ask: “How long as Belyea been an ALP member? I’m hearing, not long.” That doesn’t matter. Indeed, Dr Bonham said she is a good local candidate because of what she has done previously in community work, rather than being a political staffer. She doesn’t appear to have occasioned any local controversy capable of alienating groups of people, unlike the Lib.
There was some story that Labor left people would not volunteer for Belyea, because of the leadership’s weak response to war crimes in the eastern Mediterranean, but this misreads the nature of such people. They know this by-election is a test for Dutton, and will turn out.
Note that the Libs lost Dunkley in their miracle election (2019) by 2.74%, with a primary vote of almost 40% (39.9%).
The Lib candidate Conroy seems confused about different levels of government in Australia.
In the ABC interview, which should not be disregarded as many non-Labor voters listen to the ABC (see the polls about most reliable media sources etc), Conroy stressed that he is the underdog, and presented himself as the current Frankston Mayor, not mentioning the Libs at all. It was all motherhood type stuff re cost of living, with no Lib policy promoted at all.
The aggravation in his voice when questioned about the high rise is telling. See 7 mins in at:
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/melbourne-drive/liberal-dunkley-candidate-election-interview/103497174
In 2019 the Lib primary vote exceeded the Labor primary by nearly 1.4% (39.9% to 38.5%).
Because there is no strong factor favouring the Libs, who were 7.7% behind on primary votes in 2022, I think Labor will still beat the Libs on primary votes, though it will be closer than it was on primary votes in 2022. Labor might lose a bit to the Greens, but little to Reem Yunis, the Palestinian-Australian woman, and next to nothing to the Democrats. Bergwerf’s vote will drop a bit and Labor will still get around half of his voters’ preferences. Because some of the less motivated voters might not turn up, the informal vote could drop below 4.7%.
I doubt the Lib primary will get to 40%. Probably around 38%. Libs will get 2% in prefs from Libertarians, maybe 1.5% or so from Bergwerf and about 2% from the blue-green types or the Democrats (the latter will be a small pool). That gets them to about 43.5%, i.e. not much different to their vote after prefs in 2022. My guess is Labor + 5% from your guess = 56.5%.
‘A south-west Victorian farmer has been fined $34,000 after ordering land clearing of a former blue gum plantation that killed and injured hundreds of koalas in 2020.
James Russell Troeth appeared in Warrnambool Magistrates’ Court today where he pleaded guilty to four charges relating to animal cruelty after 21 koalas were found dead at his Cape Bridgewater property.
A further 49 koalas had to be euthanised, and the rest of the more than 200 animals affected were injured, dehydrated or starving at the partially cleared former timber plantation.
Magistrate Gerard Lethbridge said he accepted that Mr Troeth “lived a blameless life” and was a contributing member of society.
“I would go along with [the defence’s] description of him as salt of the earth,” Magistrate Lethbridge said.
IFAW Wildlife Campaign Manager Josey Sharrad said outside the court that the organisation was disappointed at the sentence.
“This case highlights that much harsher penalties should exist to prevent cruelty to wildlife,” she said.
“IFAW supported our partners Mosswood Wildlife as they dealt with the heartbreaking aftermath for many months after.
“The scars will always remain.”’
Source: abc.net.au
“Salt of the earth” my arse.
Dunkley betting odds. Alp $1.55. Mr potato head $5.50.
I live in Victoria and you would not know there was an election on.
Complete disinterest.
Don’t gamble responsibly, don’t gamble at all. It is just stupid.
Thanks High Street.
BT has indicated that the ALP primary “trend” is up 0.9% between Jan to Feb this year.
I previously posted that the ALP primary started to stabilise after Christmas, after sinking to the high 20’s in a couple of polls late last year.
I suspect (I don’t know) that the BT computer has just about removed all those polls from late last year, from it’s calculations.
So if primary ALP figures of 29% are removed from BT’s calculations, to be replaced by primary ALP figures of 31 & 32%, it would mean that BT would tick up.
I think this is where we are at.
Hopefully BT will be updated later next week – Feb 29 – would be a good date (after Yougov if it drops on Thursday arvo). We should have a few polls dropped over the next 7 days so the “beast will be well fed”, and we’ll get a new set of numbers heading into Autumn.
I may have misread you & apologies if I did, but your comment of 31% for the Essential Report basically equals 33% is like saying the last Freshwater poll of 38% LNP , was really 40% LNP. I think it best to exclude those people who can’t work out their vote rather than speculate on how they really meant to vote. Gosh, if we get a 40%+ LNP Primary vote on any poll this site will go into meltdown.
Pied Piper.says:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 10:53 pm
Maybe a good idea for Albo not to visit Dunkley at all keep it out of the headlines.
The last famous kidnapping in oz was Cleo found hidden in a house nearby.
Will history repeat ?
===================================================
What are you on?. What has a missing woman in Ballarat got to with Albo and Dunkley?. I guess cookers are going to cook but you are truly overdone. Did your mother drop you at birth?.
Ashasays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 7:26 pm
The real outrage is that Albo isn’t going to the blink-182 concert. Come on, man, sort out your priorities
——-
Thats what I said earlier Asha. Its a real concern.
Rainmansays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 11:11 pm
‘A south-west Victorian farmer has been fined $34,000 after ordering land clearing of a former blue gum plantation that killed and injured hundreds of koalas in 2020.
==============================================
The family are Liberal Party royalty. Though Portland is good Labor town even if TM went to school there. His mother was John Howard’s Agricultural Minister too. So it was likely he wouldn’t get the sentence he deserved with those contacts to fall back on.
nathsays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:23 pm
No politician is going to turn down an invitation to Raheen. There is a good chance that post retirement you could end up on Pratt’s exclusive pet pollie list for 4 grand a week or more.
–+++++–
Bet you Bill will be there. Albo has to be there to stave off a challenge. Surely.
wranslidesays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 11:41 pm
nathsays:
Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:23 pm
No politician is going to turn down an invitation to Raheen. There is a good chance that post retirement you could end up on Pratt’s exclusive pet pollie list for 4 grand a week or more.
–+++++–
Bet you Bill will be there. Albo has to be there to stave off a challenge. Surely.
==========================================================
Bill’s ex-wife is a very close friend of the family. Whether Bill gets invited will be entirely down to how amicable his relationship with his ex is.
pied piper:
What in the fuck?
Been There
If you’re reading this, I’m really sorry about what happened with your dog and the blue tongue. Having to put an animal out of its misery is always hard and sad. Please don’t blame yourself too much. I hope you’re feeling better and had a better day today.
When my father died, I was stoic and unemotional.
When my cat, my best friend, died, I couldn’t stop the tears.
We cope in our own way. It’s not right or wrong, it’s just the way it is.
My Cats
I know. I know.
they are limited, have different
needs and
concerns.
but I watch and learn from them.
I like the little they know,
which is so
much.
they complain but never
worry,
they walk with a surprising dignity.
they sleep with a direct simplicity that
humans just can’t
understand.
their eyes are more
beautiful than our eyes.
and they can sleep 20 hours
a day
without
hesitation or
remorse.
when I am feeling
low
all I have to do is
watch my cats
and my
courage
returns.
I study these
creatures.
they are my
teachers.
Charles Bukowski