Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

Labor pokes its nose in front in what has been its weakest polling series through the term, though the primary vote records little change.

The Financial Review has a federal poll from Freshwater Strategy, the pollster’s first for the paper since mid-December, though it conducted one for the News Corp papers in early January. It has Labor leading 51-49, after its previous two polls both recorded a dead heat. There is little change on the primary vote, with Labor on 31% and the Coalition on 38%, respectively steady and down one from both the two previous polls, and the Greens on 14%, up one from the December poll and steady from January.

A preferred prime minister measure has Anthony Albanese leading Peter Dutton 42-38, little changed from 43-39 in December. A question on the tax cut amendments finds 44% supportive, 26% indifferent and 15% opposed, with 32% expecting to be better off, 12% worse off and 43% anticipating no difference. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1049.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,102 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 41 of 43
1 40 41 42 43
  1. bobsays:
    Friday, February 23, 2024 at 7:16 pm
    “I am so over the coverage of Taylor Swift – Sydney is just so far behind the times – Swift is so last week here in Melbourne.”
    First time Melbourne’s been ahead of Sydney since the temporary Parliament was setup there.
    =============================================

    Yeah right, so how long has NSW had a state Labor Government?.

  2. Albo seemed to forget that calling Taylor Swift Tay Tay wouldn’t really attract voters seeing 12 year olds can’t vote and that it actually implies something’s happening down there.

    Since your story is that you’re 16, I’d have thought you’d be conscious that Taylor Swift had her first number one album four years before such people were born.

  3. Macca RBsays:
    Friday, February 23, 2024 at 7:21 am
    Steve777 @ 9.19pm.
    I was intrigued by this report of a land swap in regard to the expansion of the eastern suburbs of the ACT, since it was first aired.
    * My question is what current seat, in NSW, does this land cover?
    * Would having a larger urban population affect the potential result in NSW, and which party would have the most to lose or most to benefit?
    * Does the growth forecast of the ACT suggest a 4th ACT HOR seat?
    * If it is Eden-Monaro, then I believe that there are sound reasons to keep this mooted urban area as a part of NSW.
    I am aware that the changing demographic in Hume is making this seat more marginal.
    ==================================================
    MaccaRB, to provide an answer to your questions…
    * Seat in NSW this land covers = Eden Monaro. E.M basically encircles the A.C.T.
    * Which Party would have the most to lose/benefit. Answer: Labor would benefit. Public servants prefer the ALP, so the ALP would benefit. Though E.M. is held by Labor at the moment, so to really answer your q – no one benefits.
    * Does growth forecast suggest a 4th ACT seat. Answer – No. The A.C.T. is currently sitting on about 2.62 quota’s (ie: 3 seats), and is in fact going backwards in comparison to the rest of Australia.
    In simple speak, Melbourne will overtake Sydney as our largest urban conurbation and Perth will overtake Brisbane as our 3rd largest conurbation, well before the A.C.T. gets a 4th seat (unless of course we increase the size of the H.O.Reps).
    * Eden Monaro acts as a “sort of” 4th A.C.T. seat, but it will remain a part of NSW. Premier Minns has more important things to deal with – and ceding territory to the A.C.T. is probably the last thing he is going to do. Not going to happen.

  4. ATM in an average year around half a billion people go to bed hungry some days in the week. (Most of these do not have even remotely the sort of support services that Australia’s homeless people have access to and which they deserve.)

    When there is a gap between demand and supply commodity prices go up and more people globally go hungry. This basic nexus exists because aid money is used to buy the food.

    Based on everything we know, at current trajectories, world food commodity crops face a possible – or even probably, reduction in production of between 5% and 15%.

    The current global plan is to keep touristing while all tourism energy inputs are derived from nuclear or renewables or the globe cooks. Whichever comes first.

    Tourism currently generates 8% of all the world’s CO2 emissions.

    The graphs you can put together based on those four statements have some very, very nasty cross over points.

    I shocked a group of my friends the other day when I stated that it was my ambition never to board another plane and why I would no longer be touristing o/s. Pretty well everyone in that group flies routinely and routinely travels o/s for tourism purposes. When I told them why I wouldn’t be doing it there is a bit of a general urge to talk about something else.

  5. Finished sniping? Or is this a variation on the theme? You could start by letting us all know whether you support the continuation of the industry which generates 8% of global CO2 emissions, which is predominately the domain of the world’s wealthy people, which is terrible for biodiversity and which has a massive housing opportunity cost to homeless people.

    I really don’t see how this is a remotely reasonable response to Rewi’s polite and (I assume) good faith request to elaborate on

    You want to know why you get such a hostile reception? It’s because of shit like this.

  6. I’ve no doubt your belief in the need to end tourism is heartfelt, but what do you propose our governments do about it?

    Is it just international air tourism that’s bad, or all tourism including, for example, trips to a country B&B?

    Or is it, like talking about things governments in other countries do over which we have no real capacity to exercise control, just an interminable whinge without a solution?

  7. The mooted expansion of the ACT by a suburb is interesting. The suburb is, by any set of sustainability measures, unsustainable.

    Yass Shire should never have approved this development. Without substantial new roading, effective access from Yass itself is by way of the ACT’s road system. While it is adjacent to the Murrumbidgee River the water that flows past is fully allocated.

    I was disappointed to see the ACT Government even considering adding it. What are the water sharing deals between the ACT and Yass Shire Council?

    Under current arrangements I assume that most of the services (education, prison and hospital) its residents use in the ACT will be paid by NSW in some sort of deal.

  8. ‘Rewi says:
    Friday, February 23, 2024 at 7:58 pm

    I’ve no doubt your belief in the need to end tourism is heartfelt, but what do you propose our governments do about it?

    Is it just international air tourism that’s bad, or all tourism including, for example, trips to a country B&B?

    Or is it, like talking about things governments in other countries do over which we have no real capacity to exercise control, just an interminable whinge without a solution?’
    ——————————–
    1. Ground airlines.
    2. Tourism housing opportunity tax. This tax would be floating and would be calculated as follows. It would be levied against all tourism accomodation. It would be enough tax to building and maintain housing for the homeless.
    3. Tourist arrivals arrive via renewable energy or via mass transit. No bookings for people who arrive in ICE vehicles.

    Of course we can’t make other countries behave sensibly. There is nothing on earth short of a nuclear war that will stop China approving two new coal-fired power stations a week. Nothing.

    This is what we can do in Australia. If we all happened to be sincere about wanting to get to zero net fifty.

  9. ‘Rewi says:
    Friday, February 23, 2024 at 7:39 pm

    Boerwar

    Your assertion that I defend Dutton, as any objective observer will see, has no bearing in reality.
    …’
    —————
    Uh… having decisively delivered the NO, Dutton’s next task was to lay the blame off on Albanese. Anyone who refuses to acknowledge this fact while beating around all sorts of deflections is, of course, defending Dutton. Only they are being taken for mugs by Dutton and don’t realize that they are doing it.

    I don’t care where you go with the referendum discussions as long as you start with this simple, basic and irrefutable truth: the referendum was lost because Dutton went negative.

    All the rest is rooting around in the weeds or, even more facile, alternative history about how Dutton would have behaved with integrity if only he had been given an opportunity to do so.

  10. ‘Rewi says:
    Friday, February 23, 2024 at 8:08 pm

    Boerwar

    Thanks, I’m sure those proposals will give us all plenty to think about and discuss.’
    —————————————
    Bully for you.

  11. Pfft.

    That’s right, I say ‘Pfft’ to you, sir.

    Your rhetorical posturing will not serve you well here!

    Some of us matured beyond having to restate truths before prosecuting contentions long ago, certainly when to do so renders those truths little more than platitudes.

    Retract your slander or do I need to retrieve my dueling pistols?

  12. I don’t know if it was reported in the east but the West Australian tells us that parasite Abbott, a bloke who has never done a day’s work in his life, reckons young people expect something for nothing and we should solve the ADF’S numbers problem with conscription. I wonder when a journalist will ask Dutton or Sussssan to rule it in or out.

  13. Andriy Lyubka – Ukrainian poet, essayist, and translator:

    “… Over two years of war, as it has already been said, we’ve learned to rely on fate and destiny. We’ve grown accustomed to the deaths around us and accepted the possibility of our own sudden demise. We no longer react as vehemently as we did before to terrible news — our emotional skin has thickened. Or perhaps it has simply gradually withered away because, with each day of horror, which our lives have turned into, we all slowly died, too.

    What makes us human and normal has withered away within us. Everyone has become a victim of the war – both those it has killed and those who have (so far) been lucky enough to survive. Over two years, we’ve grown accustomed to war and tragedies, and have started to consider it the new normal, a part of our everyday lives.

    And that’s the scariest part of it all.”

    https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-in-the-past-2-years-of-war-we-all-died-a-little/

  14. Thing about “ending tourism” is that it involves these seperate things, only two of which our government can do anything about.

    1) Stopping foreign tourists from coming here. Easy enough for any government to do, assuming they were willing to cop the immense political and economic consequences that would result.

    2) Stopping Australian tourists from visiting other countries. Again, well within the power of the Australian government, and probably wouldn’t have much in the way of economic consequences for a government that did so… But the political consequences would – again – be immense.

    3) Stopping foreign tourists from visiting countries that aren’t Australia. Which we can’t really do anything about behind advocate for such measures in international forums like we currently do for stuff like climate change action and human rights abuses.

    I’m reasonably certain any government that tried to bring in either of the first two measures – let alone both – would be so utterly destroyed at the ballot box that it would spell the end of whatever party happened to be in government at the time. I mean, just look at how people reacted to temporary border closures during a worldwide pandemic. Imagine the reaction to that happening permanently! Especially if pollies are still travelling overseas regularly for various meetings and conferences and junkets at the same time and rich folk are still travelling overseas on business trips and the like! Christ, if you think removing negative gearing is a political risk…

    It’s not going to happen. Sure, maybe it should happen, but it just… isn’t. The very idea makes even the craziest of the Greens’ proposals look like like the very image of cautious “art of the possible” pragmatism.

  15. 2. Tourism housing opportunity tax. This tax would be floating and would be calculated as follows. It would be levied against all tourism accomodation. It would be enough tax to building and maintain housing for the homeless.
    3. Tourist arrivals arrive via renewable energy or via mass transit. No bookings for people who arrive in ICE vehicles.

    Now, these two I actually think are pretty reasonable, especially the third! Not entirely sure how (2) would work in practice (by “tourist dwellings”, I assume you mean hotels and air-B&Bs?) and the claim that it “would be enough tax to build and maintain housing for the homeless” could probably use a citation, but it’s definitely something to think about. The amount of usually empty homes being used for AirB&Bs is absolutely a big problem that is exacerbating the housing crisis, and I am all for any (reasonable) policies designed to counteract that.

  16. Albo going to Taylor Swift is not really a problem. He has image as a music fanboy – remember Dolly Parton’s coach issue he sorted out. It adds to his character.

    The private Katy Perry party at the Pratt home is a different fish kettle. That looks like hob-knobbing with a billionaire and/or it looks like he is being used as a hired monkey. That is harder to defend.

  17. Don’t think I missed your equally slanderous suggestion the other night that I support Putin and Xi, either.

    Irredeemably humourless, permitted to daily spray the product of your morning enema at all and sundry.

    What a princely life it must be!

  18. William
    Regarding C@T. I tuned in the other day just as you were telling her you had deleted her previous six posts, followed by another post from you saying “Bye C@t”. I have no idea what was in those posts, but obviously it wasn’t acceptable to you. Is it your intention to give her a spell on the sidelines and then invite her back as you have done previously with other people?

  19. Grant_ExLibris says:
    Friday, February 23, 2024 at 6:32 pm

    Just like the Beatles back in the ’60s. Wasn’t the largest ever crowd to see the Beatles in Adelaide when literally half the city turned out to see them on the motorcade along the Glenelg Highway?

    —————————————————————

    In 1964, the population of Adelaide was 668,000. The crowd was estimated at between 250,000 and 350,000. When Paul McCartney played in Adelaide recently, he recounted at how amazed they were by this reception, the likes of which they had never encountered.

    However, there is no such Glenelg Highway. It was Anzac Highway, which goes from the city to Glenelg, or otherwise known as the city to the Bay. Hence, the great SANFL Glenelg Football Club can be referred to either as the Tigers or the Bays.

  20. Some objective polling data on Ukrainians’ attitudes towards suggestions they concede territory to the invader in the hope of securing a respite from the war:

    “Since May 2022, KIIS in its own surveys regularly asks questions about the [Ukrainian] population’s readiness for territorial concessions in order to achieve peace and preserve independence as soon as possible…

    … After May 2023, there is a gradual increase in the share of those who are ready for territorial concessions: from 10% in May to 14% in October and up to 19% in December. Along with this, there is a tendency to decrease the share of those who oppose territorial concessions (from 84% in May to 80% in October and to 74% in December), although as of now, a clear majority of Ukrainians still believe that Ukraine should not give up from any of its territories…

    … in all regions, a clear majority of respondents (from, respectively, 68% and 69% in the South and East to 76 and 79% in the West and in the Center) still oppose Russia’s territorial concessions.”

    https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1332&page=5

  21. Blockquotes,

    The fella has a tear-drop face tattoo…

    Google him. He’s been their mouthpiece on cost of living issues for a couple of years.

    But Schrinner was shocked, shocked to hear of his criminal history!

  22. William Bowesays:
    Friday, February 23, 2024 at 7:47 pm
    Albo seemed to forget that calling Taylor Swift Tay Tay wouldn’t really attract voters seeing 12 year olds can’t vote and that it actually implies something’s happening down there.

    Since your story is that you’re 16, I’d have thought you’d be conscious that Taylor Swift had her first number one album four years before such people were born.

    ———————
    Those old-school fans would well and truly belong to the demographic that support labour through thick or thin, and even if they didn’t, a true Taylor fan would be changing their mind after her endorsement of Biden.
    Go figure?

  23. A UK left-wing anarchist has been found guilty of preparing acts of terrorism by compiling and sharing a bomb-making manual, after declaring that he wanted to kill at least 50 politicians. Jacob Graham, 20, from Norris Green, Liverpool, dedicated his manual, called the “Freedom Encyclopaedia”, to “terrorists past and future, anarchists etc” and buried bomb-making chemicals in a secret woodland hide. He wrote a document called “My Plan” in which he said he wanted to kill at least 50 people by attacking government buildings and politicians’ houses. He also made 138 videos in which he demonstrated explosives and talked about “Judgement Day” and “standing up for working class people.”

  24. Somewhat Abstractsays:
    Friday, February 23, 2024 at 8:57 pm

    Those old-school fans would well and truly belong to the demographic that support labour through thick or thin, and even if they didn’t, a true Taylor fan would be changing their mind after her endorsement of Biden.
    Go figure?
    ==================================================

    Maybe “Leftie” was right and i don’t comprehend English, because if this is English i don’t comprehend it?.

  25. ‘It may surprise you to learn that the fashion industry produces about 10 percent of annual global carbon emissions, which is more than all maritime shipping and international flights combined. What’s more, fashion’s emissions of harmful greenhouse gases are projected to grow by more than 50 percent by 2030.

    The fashion sector (including cotton farming) also uses about 93 billion cubic meters of water annually, representing 4 percent of all global freshwater withdrawal. In fact, just to manufacture a single pair of jeans requires a staggering 3,781 liters of water. And every second of the day, the equivalent of a garbage truck full of textiles is burned or added to landfill, while textile dyeing is the second largest polluter of water globally.’

    Source: zurich.com

    I think we should stop worrying about stopping tourism, which, let’s get real, is not go into happen, and start growing hemp.

    ‘But is hemp really better for the environment than cotton? As well as being a biodegradable fibre, hemp’s production requires less than a third of the water needed for cotton and yields 220% more fibre. The plant grows without the need for harmful herbicides and pesticides and also replenishes soil quality. Hemp has low carbon emissions and is capable of capturing carbon emissions from the atmosphere, meaning it is considerably better for the environment than cotton.’

    Source: theguardian.com

    So, grow hemp! Grow it in your backyard, grow it in your shed, grow it in the parks, grow it in the fields, scatter the seeds throughout the country side as you road trip your way to your next tourist destination (in an EV, of course) – and if you don’t like that, you can put it in your pipe and smoke it!

    Edited to move source.

  26. It is looking like Viktor Orban’s grip on power has been shaken a little in the last week due to a child sex abuse scandal. Key figures in his government have been letting paedophiles who working in government children homes off easily. It is almost like his government has finally crossed a line that the public is not going tolerate.

  27. BW says
    “Under current arrangements I assume that most of the services (education, prison and hospital) its residents use in the ACT will be paid by NSW in some sort of deal.”

    Four bus loads of kids leave Yass each school day for their education in the ACT… when I taught at Yass High School we were grateful for the opportunity not to have to teach many of them.

  28. The private Katy Perry party at the Pratt home is a different fish kettle. That looks like hob-knobbing with a billionaire and/or it looks like he is being used as a hired monkey. That is harder to defend.

    Sometimes as PM you have to take one for team Australia… Sounds like a kettle of sour grapes to me.

  29. Rainmansays:
    Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:09 pm
    =================================================

    Hemp maybe better for environment than cotton but not if you burn it. As then it will produce CO2.

  30. Pueosays:
    Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:13 pm
    The private Katy Perry party at the Pratt home is a different fish kettle. That looks like hob-knobbing with a billionaire and/or it looks like he is being used as a hired monkey. That is harder to defend.

    Sometimes as PM you have to take one for team Australia… Sounds like a kettle of sour grapes to me.
    —————–
    Would you dismiss it if Morrison had done the same thing?

  31. No politician is going to turn down an invitation to Raheen. There is a good chance that post retirement you could end up on Pratt’s exclusive pet pollie list for 4 grand a week or more.

  32. Rainmansays:
    Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:09 pm
    =================================================

    Hemp maybe better for environment than cotton but not if you burn it. As then it will produce CO2.

    ———————————————————

    That’s why you hold your breath.

  33. Macarthursays:
    Friday, February 23, 2024 at 8:39 pm
    Some objective polling data on Ukrainians’ attitudes towards suggestions they concede territory to the invader in the hope of securing a respite from the war:
    =======================================================

    These polls also have a totally defined answer vs a partially defined answer.
    So no territorial concession is completely defined. While territorial concession is not. As we don’t know what degree of territorial concession is acceptable by the person who has chosen that option. Was it Donbas and/or Crimea or just part of Donbas etc?.

  34. Pueosays:
    Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:31 pm
    Would you dismiss it if Morrison had done the same thing?

    We wouldn’t have heard about it if Morrison was invited.
    —————-
    That’s not the point but it would have been found out.

  35. The trouble with legalising hemp for commercial textiles use is where do you draw the line? It would require new safety standards, consistent inspections by WHS, employee checks, etc. etc. Is it government subsidized? If it is and some guy gets caught, imagine the investigations, watchdog issues, the list goes on. A big boost for the pathetic Legalise Cannabis movement. Ultimately it’s either a big economic win or a logistical loss.

    (I am aware that some of the things listed above happen at medical cannabis growing facilities, but at a much smaller scale than a major textile market.)

  36. Mexicanbeemersays:
    Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:18 pm
    Pueosays:
    Friday, February 23, 2024 at 9:13 pm
    The private Katy Perry party at the Pratt home is a different fish kettle. That looks like hob-knobbing with a billionaire and/or it looks like he is being used as a hired monkey. That is harder to defend.

    Sometimes as PM you have to take one for team Australia… Sounds like a kettle of sour grapes to me.
    —————–
    Would you dismiss it if Morrison had done the same thing?
    ===================================================

    I wasn’t here but are you saying “Pueo”criticised Morrison for doing the same thing?. Like in this case:

    “On Saturday night, the Pratt family again welcomed Treasurer Josh Frydenberg back to the family estate for another all-out bash, this time joined by the Prime Minister Scott Morrison. And when we say “all out”, we mean that the red wine served on the night happened to be Penfolds Grange.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/pratt-pm-do-the-double-on-the-party-front-at-raheen-20220220-p59y32.html

Comments Page 41 of 43
1 40 41 42 43

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *