The biggest electoral news of the week was probably the annual release of electoral donations disclosures, which has been widely covered elsewhere. From the more narrow concerns of this site, there is the following:
• Ben Small, who served in the Senate from November 2020 to June 2022, has emerged as the only nominee for Liberal preselection in the regional Western Australian seat of Forrest. The seat will be vacated at the next election with the retirement of Nola Marino, who has held it safely for the Liberals since 2007. The West Australian also reports Mark Wales, an SAS veteran, Survivor winner and former McKinsey consultant, plans to nominate for Tangney, a normally comfortable Liberal seat that fell to Labor in 2022. Others known to be interested are Canning mayor Patrick Hall and IT consultant Harold Ong.
• The Liberal National Party has chosen its candidates for the looming Queensland state by-elections for the safe Labor seats of Inala and Ipswich West, respectively being vacated by Annastacia Palaszczuk and Jim Madden: Trang Yen, a 28-year-old public servant in the Department of State Development, and Darren Zanow, president of the Ipswich Show Society. The by-elections will be held concurrently with local government elections on March 16.
• With former South Australian Premier Steven Marshall saying he will formally resign from parliament “in the coming months”, the Liberals have preselected lawyer and former ministerial adviser Anna Finizio for the looming by-election for his seat of Dunstan, which once had the more instructive name of Norwood. Labor is again running with its candidate from March 2023, Cressida O’Hanlon, a family dispute resolution practitioner.
Greensborough Growler says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 4:08 pm
The Chinese are always coming! They may never get here but they are always on their way.
Didn’t someone write a play about that scenario called, “Waiting for Sino?”
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They are here already. They own many farms, mines, lease ports, real estate,…
In fact Federal Labor only has a majority as at least 4 electorates with a significant number of Chinese ancestry voters abandoned the Liberals and voted Labor in May 2022.
Due to the ‘drums of war’ maybe AUKUS talk of Morrison, building up fears of a Chinese invasion of Australia. Or military conflict. And hence possible racist attacks against them.
Many Australians are easily fooled. Leadership lacking in many politicians.
Be interesting to see if Labor keeps these 4 electorates – Bennelong, Reid in NSW, Chisholm in Victoria, Tangney in WA.
And some swung to Independents: For some, China was a deciding factor in their vote.
Wang Zhengliang, who lives in the Kooyong electorate in Melbourne’s inner-east, immigrated from China more than three decades ago.
Mr Wang said many in his community voted for the Liberals in the past, but switched to the independent this time.
“Not because they like Dr Monique, but because we are afraid there will be a military conflict with China,” he said.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-24/chinese-australian-vote-election-swing-labor/101091384#
“The prime minister suggested any Palestinian state could need to be “demilitarised”:
We need to de-escalate. Part of that might mean, for example, any existence of a Palestinian state would be one that was a demilitarised state as well. Those are the sort of issues that need to be on the table”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/feb/04/australia-news-live-weather-temperatures-stage-three-tax-cuts-albanese
___________________
So they are to have no means of self defence ..?
GTFO Albo.
Taylormade that is quite harsh on the PM.
So you are saying the rejigging of fiscal policy to repivot in response to global economic crisis is a bad thing? – Something that instead will benefit 88% of the populace as opposed to the 12% at the top end of town if the promise had been kept?
Its more a damming indictment on the Opposition and its leader who -apparently- have nothing left to peddle now that the voice is in the rearview mirror than the carry on over the breaking of a promise to some of the wealthiest Australians.
And on Stage 3- nothing more than a middle finger by Morrison and co at the institutions of our welfare state- institutions that those MAGA wannabes would rather have guttered and destroyed. What better way to try to bring it down then to cap the tax rate at 30% up to 200k.
They weren’t going to be happy until we became the 51st state, complete with its user-pay heath system and 20% taxation rates for billionaires.
Antony Green – elections @AntonyGreenElec
If an election were called before current redistributions are complete in September, the following mini-redistributions would take place
NSW – Warringah and Wentworth merged
VIC – Chisholm and Higgins merged
WA – Durack and Hasluck merged to be split into three seats
The dodgy practices at Crown flourished under Bracks and continued up until Daniel Andrews cleaned it up.
Vehicle emissions standards. Tick.
I fear MAGA Dutton will revert to some stock standard dog whistling to regain his footing after S3 is settled.
Taylormade @ #644 Sunday, February 4th, 2024 – 4:12 pm
Holdenhillbillysays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 4:31 pm
Antony Green – elections @AntonyGreenElec
If an election were called before current redistributions are complete in September, the following mini-redistributions would take place
NSW – Warringah and Wentworth merged
VIC – Chisholm and Higgins merged
WA – Durack and Hasluck merged to be split into three seats
==================================================
So 6 current seats would result in 5 seats. So a loss of 1 seat in total?.
I was referring to Albo’s comments re de-militarisation. That does not breach the moratorium.
Psephology posts on PB? That’s not something you see every day!
========================
It’s what the blog is all about. It’s great.
Veers off into bizarre area’s sometimes, like the vitriol going on last Tuesday – everyone attacking everyone like some sort of pub fight. Suppose some find it funny. I got off the blog about 10 that morning but it was still going well into the afternoon, and Saturday afternoons are now frequently attracting the “skynews after dark before sunset” crowd, though I suppose if the posters aren’t being personally abusive they’re entitled to post the skynews/breitbart stuff.
Anyway, nothing like a nice fresh crisp round of polls to start the parliamentary year off. This weeks polls set the scene for the year. The earlier polls in Jan 2024 were just treading water from 2023, so they’re not really much indication. This weeks polls (should be about 5 if I’m right), will set the scene for 2024. Will try to get back to the blog later this evening when the “witching hour” begins.
Dan, just normal steady as she goes governing is pretty exciting.
We had an administration that dreamt up eleventy energy policies over ten years and implemented none of them. It’s amazing our energy transition hasn’t completely crashed.
It’s great to have a competent administration. They’ve done a great job this term at delivering where the former administration floundered.
An election where they took an ambitious set of policies to the electorate would be most welcome.
Taylormade @ #645 Sunday, February 4th, 2024 – 4:12 pm
‘Never Ever GST’ – John Winston Howard
‘No cuts to Health.
No cuts to Education’
No cuts to the ABC or SBS.’ Tony Abbott
Commuter Car Parks
The LMITO (disappeared by 2022) Scott Morrison
Though I admit, I haven’t believed just about anything a Liberal says. Since about the time of Malcolm Fraser and the Dismissal.
Holdenhillbillysays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 4:31 pm
Antony Green – elections @AntonyGreenElec
If an election were called before current redistributions are complete in September, the following mini-redistributions would take place
NSW – Warringah and Wentworth merged
VIC – Chisholm and Higgins merged
WA – Durack and Hasluck merged to be split into three seats
____________________
I assume this gives us some insight into how the redistributions might go?
Jumping the Harbor and pitting Teal against Teal. Better for the Liberals than other options you would think.
Lowitja O’Donoghue has passed away.
Entropy says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 4:40 pm
Holdenhillbillysays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 4:31 pm
Antony Green – elections @AntonyGreenElec
If an election were called before current redistributions are complete in September, the following mini-redistributions would take place
NSW – Warringah and Wentworth merged
———.———
Warringah is on the North Shore of Sydney Harbour. Wentworth is in the Sydney Eastern suburbs, south of the harbour.
Don’t think a merger there would be feasible.
It is a tragic day for P1 and Rex.
Neither can slag Labor on vehicle emissions any more.
They will have to move to some other slagfest.
Irenesays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 4:50 pm
Entropy says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 4:40 pm
Holdenhillbillysays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 4:31 pm
Antony Green – elections @AntonyGreenElec
If an election were called before current redistributions are complete in September, the following mini-redistributions would take place
NSW – Warringah and Wentworth merged
———.———
Warringah is on the North Shore of Sydney Harbour. Wentworth is in the Sydney Eastern suburbs, south of the harbour.
Don’t think a merger there would be feasible.
————————————————–
Yes they can for a mini re-distribution. It’s only temporary. This is getting interesting about a possible early election later this year if Antony Green is now getting on it. I’ll have a look at his blog later.
If Warringah and Wentworth merge Steggall and Spender will have to rock paper scissors.
There can’t possibly be any chance of an election. The government would have to be mad not to go full term.
Warringah and Wentworth merged!!!
Sacré bleu.
Only thing in common, both home to very recent LNP PM, no longer in Parliament:).
Hello atrophy,
while I’ve got you can you give any updates as to how your attempted dalliance of Lars VT is going at the moment?
I don’t want you in his pretorian guard. Andy E and myself just didn’t receive that commissioning overnight. And to be honest I think he finds your narratives overly simple and lacking in any real kind of sophistication or cognitive prowess. Further, you need to understand LVT has no time for raging bleeding heart far left ‘hooray for everything’ types.
So, I will put in my bid for Newspoll tonight:
Close to 52.5/ 47.5.
I know that Newspoll only reports to two significant figures, so it will be either 52 or 53 to Labor, depending on the last digit and rounding method.
I do not know if chemists still use this, but I was appalled in First Year chemistry that the rounded up if the last digit was odd, and down if it was even (or vise – versa) . They also only had one constant, k, which stood for and number of different physical constants.
nathsays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 4:57 pm
There can’t possibly be any chance of an election. The government would have to be mad not to go full term.
==============================================
Only people wanting an early election and talking up the possibility. Are all LNP aligned members of the MSM. Which probably tells you who wants an early election and it is not the ALP. As economic conditions in general are on the improve. So they will be better in 2025 than now, in areas such as electricity costs and inflation rates in particular.
Some hacks on twitter are trying to claim a leak suggesting a labor 2pp with ‘two fives in it’
“There can’t possibly be any chance of an election. The government would have to be mad not to go full term.”
Agree, if they have one theme going strongly for it is they are steady as she goes, calling an early election would damage the one strength they have.
Some hacks on twitter are trying to claim a leak suggesting a labor 2pp with ‘two fives in it’
Irene,
The reason ethnic Chinese switched to Labor was because of the intemperate language and blame gaming used by the Libs in the previous Government especially Morrison.
Since Labor has taken the reins of power Albo and Team Labor have restored our trade relationship with China and the benefit of that rapprochement is that we are selling coal, barley etc after a three year interruption.
Sure, the relationship is still prickly. But deft diplomatic management by Albo, Wong and the diplomatic and trade representatives have us in a far better place.
So ethnic Chinese voters will see that as a good outcome as should most other citizens.
Actually, in fairness P1 is streaks ahead of the likes of Rex Douglas, atrophy, yabba, rainman and so on.
Irritating as she may be atleast her narrative is filled with originality and impassioned prosecution and belief in her arguments. And she probably pays more in income tax each year than all their gross earnings combined
Good news about the vehicle emissions standard.
Just back from shopping at East Village in Zetland (Confessions knows it), and I was intrigued at the large number of Teslas, Polestars and other EVs parked there. It is a big increase in a short time. Presumably in a few years these will hist the second hand market, helping make EVs more affordable.
And a really good thing: They are replacing the enormous BMW / AUDI / Mercedes etc. SUVs.
leftieBrawler says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 5:03 pm
Some hacks on twitter are trying to claim a leak suggesting a labor 2pp with ‘two fives in it’
__________
WOW
Entropy: “So a loss of 1 seat in total?”
Yep, a reduction from 151 to 150 MHRs has long been on the cards, whether the redistribution is temporary or not.
Entropy says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 3:52 pm
Oakeshott countrysays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 3:42 pm
If you shoot the Body of Christ you are going to drop dead on the spot, of course.
We had one nun who really had it in for Hoxha – lot of stories of nuns being drowned in buckets of water in Albania.
================================================
Yet soldiers pierced his body with a spear with no effect on them. Though i guess you couldn’t ask the nuns, why the discrepancy?. Without getting six of the best.
—————————————————————————
I think ‘six of the best’ was the reserve of the Jesuits (my experience) and the Christian Brothers (my father’s experience), and their leather straps. According to my mother’s stories, nuns were more fond of rulers across the knuckles and jabs to the skull with pencils.
“Some hacks on twitter are trying to claim a leak suggesting a labor 2pp with ‘two fives in it’”
50.5? 😉
So the masterstroke that all Labor bludgers have been calling for for many months is about to pay dividends ..?
leftie,
I find any possibility of Labor on 45.5% TPP as highly unlikely.
The best way to preempt an incoming newspoll is to switch over to Sky news 48 hours before- I’m sure they are given advanced copies by the sister division. If its favorable to Labor they increase the already sky high anti labor smear bits. I detect significant increases of this today.
The Bolts, Credlins, Molans, Murrays and OfCourse that female presenter stooge they use for the big and nasty takedowns Rita? etc are all in conference preparing their spew of choice before they then have to go on air to try and explain it all away.
‘Rainman says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 5:11 pm
Entropy says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 3:52 pm
Oakeshott countrysays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 3:42 pm
If you shoot the Body of Christ you are going to drop dead on the spot, of course.
We had one nun who really had it in for Hoxha – lot of stories of nuns being drowned in buckets of water in Albania.
================================================
Yet soldiers pierced his body with a spear with no effect on them. Though i guess you couldn’t ask the nuns, why the discrepancy?. Without getting six of the best.
—————————————————————————
I think ‘six of the best’ was the reserve of the Jesuits (my experience) and the Christian Brothers (my father’s experience), and their leather straps. According to my mother’s stories, nuns were more fond of rulers across the knuckles and jabs to the skull with pencils.’
========================
Marist brothers: long, thin canes.
Greensborough Growler says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 5:05 pm
Irene,
The reason ethnic Chinese switched to Labor was because of the intemperate language and blame gaming used by the Libs in the previous Government especially Morrison.
Since Labor has taken the reins of power Albo and Team Labor have restored our trade relationship with China and the benefit of that rapprochement is that we are selling coal, barley etc after a three year interruption.
Sure, the relationship is still prickly. But deft diplomatic management by Albo, Wong and the diplomatic and trade representatives have us in a far better place.
So ethnic Chinese voters will see that as a good outcome as should most other citizens.’
=====================
Yep.
The Coalition destroys. Labor builds.
Greensborough Growler says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 5:05 pm
Irene,
The reason ethnic Chinese switched to Labor was because of the intemperate language and blame gaming used by the Libs in the previous Government especially Morrison.
————
Australia is still buying nuclear powered submarines, even if one is only available at least a decade away. And building long range strike missiles. To attack China.
No other threat except for China is the reason we are buying them.
Language may be milder, but intention the same.
Chinese are smart, know what the aim of the Australian government is.
And hence the uneasiness of many people in Australia grows. Against the Chinese.
And as Boerwar says Labor builds. Yes we build Nuclear Powered Submarines and missiles.
When Labor said they will increase manufacturing didn’t think equipment for war against our biggest trading partner was the plan.
Australia on track for missile manufacturing and increasing long range strike capability.
https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/media-releases/2024-01-16/australia-track-missile-manufacturing-and-increasing-long-range-strike-capability
‘16 JANUARY 2024
The Albanese Government will ensure Australia starts manufacturing Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) missiles from 2025, following the signing of a $37.4 million contract between Defence and Lockheed Martin Australia.
The Australian Government will also acquire Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM). Both PrSM, which can engage targets out to 500km, and GMLRS can be fired from HIMARS launchers.
These activities are part of the $4.1 billion investment, announced in response to the Defence Strategic Review, which will enable Defence to acquire more long-range strike systems and manufacture longer-range munitions in Australia.’
Oliver Sutton @ #693 Sunday, February 4th, 2024 – 5:11 pm
5.5!?! 😯 😆
Irene,
Evidence?
Oakeshott countrysays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 4:02 pm
Ah but it was foretold – the sacrificial lamb could not have its bones broken and therefore the coup de grace had to be through a spear rather than the traditional breaking of the legs. Longinus was blind but the blood of Christ fell into his eyes and cured him. He then became one of the faithful and is now a saint. You will remember that he was played by John Wayne, who said in a Texan accent, “This truly was the Son of God”.
I have seen Longinus’ spear in the Hapsburg Museum – it’s not that impressive.
======================================
So they have a partial cover story for one of the guys with the spears but wasn’t there a second one too?. Though i gather the second one had a lonchē. Also it doesn’t account for those that nailed him to the cross. Did they lose a Roman soldier for each nail?.
A very sensible suggestion that the fossil fuel supporters would call extreme.
Remember when certain Lib divisions thought they could fool the new Australians of Chinese origin by printing poll booth corflutes in the style, and look of offical AEC ones – with messages in mandarin instructing them to vote for Gladys in her Victorian seat?
Entropy: “Also it doesn’t account for those that nailed him to the cross. Did they lose a Roman soldier for each nail?”
Ah, there’s a song for that! Written by some nice Jewish lads from Manchester:
“Devoted collectors of paraphernalia out walking the rock
Battle and bitch for the ultimate kitch of a crucifix clock
Two miniature Romans, running on rails
Appear every hour and bang in the nails …”
(10cc, ‘An Englishman in New York’)
https://youtu.be/RJre-YHmLaI?si=HQbfKB3q08ZqE1fC
Does history support removing Donald Trump from the presidential ballot?
https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1228067671
JILL LEPORE…
so framed as to disenfranchise from office the leaders of the past rebellion, as well as the leaders of any rebellion hereafter to come.
The self interested trogs are about to have their lunch cut.
Pro-windfarm agitators are beginning to rally.
It’s the jobs wot dun it Guv!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-04/rallies-held-in-support-of-offshore-wind-hopes-for-jobs/103418356
leftie,
She’s like an ex-MIL. Never forgives. Never forgets.