The fortnightly Essential Research results find no change for the major parties on the primary vote, with results inclusive of a 5% undecided component putting the Coalition at 34% and Labor at 32%. The Greens are up two to 12%, recovering half of a four-point drop in the previous poll, while One Nation are steady on 7%. Labor’s lead on the 2PP+ measure is 49% to 47%, the remainder being undecided, compared with 48% to 46% last time. I noted a fortnight ago that gender breakdowns from the previous poll presented the opposite from the usual pattern, which has distinctly not been repeated this time.
The survey includes bi-monthly favourability ratings, as distinct from approval ratings, in which respondents rate the leaders’ performance on a scale of zero to ten. Anthony Albanese’s reading is negative for the first time, with a four point drop in ratings designated positive (seven to ten) to 33% and a six-point increase in negative (one to three) to 35%. Peter Dutton gets his best results since November, his positive rating is up five to 32% and negative steady on 35%.
The supplementary questions largely related to international affairs, including a question as to whether Australia should provide “active assistance” to Israel or Palestine, the nature of such assistance presumably being hinted at by the either/or (or neither) response options. Seventeen per cent favoured such assistance going to Israel compared with 21% who favoured it going “to Palestine”, an ambiguous proposition under the circumstances. Thirty-five per cent rated the Israeli response proportionate, down seven from four weeks ago, compared with 25% for disproportionate, up seven. Thirty-one per cent rated themselves satisfied with the Australian government’s response, down six, with dissatisfied up one to 20%.
The Albanese government scores a 25% positive rating on its handling of international relations, with 45% for average and 30% for negative. Forty-four per cent rate Australia’s relationship with China as better since Labor came to power, compared with 11% for worse (allowance should perhaps be made here for those who consider a good relationship a bad thing). Twenty-seven per cent said active support should go to the United States in its tensions with China, compared with 6% for the opposite proposition and 67% for “stay as neutral as possible”. Thirty-nine per cent felt the AUKUS partnership would make Australia more secure, down one from March, compared with 18% for less secure (down three) and 42% for no difference (up three). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1150.
Further poll news:
• The Age/Herald provided further results from the Resolve Strategic poll on aid to the principals in the Middle East conflict, identified as Hamas and Israel in the question, with response options specifying Israel, Gaza or both equally. The results were 21%, 13% and 47% for medical and food aid, 14%, 9% and 29% for accepting refugees, and 21%, 4% and an enigmatic 8% for providing military equipment, with a respective 30%, 48% and 66% favouring providing no such aid at all.
• The weekly Roy Morgan result is the second poll published this term that fails to have Labor ahead on two-party preferred, the first being its result of three weeks ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor, down one-and-a-half, 36.5% for the Coalition, up one-and-a-half, and 13% for the Greens, down half. The 50-50 two-party result is based on respondent-allocated preferences, which are again flowing to Labor more weakly than they did at the election. Applying the election preference flows, I make it 51-49 in favour of Labor. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1397.
• Roy Morgan also has an SMS poll with a forced response question on whether Israel should withdraw immediately from Gaza, finding 51% for yes and 49% for no. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1650.
Pueo @ #48 Wednesday, November 15th, 2023 – 8:54 am
Haha, watched the clip with the subtitles on. Cleared up a multi decade misheard lyric. I thought the line was “When two tribes go to war, money, is all you can score.” When in fact the line is “When two tribes go to war, a point is all you can score.”
Trump threatens Judge Engoron again, this time with a repost of a ‘citizens arrest’ fantasy
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/14/2205812/-Trump-threatens-Judge-Engoron-again-this-time-with-a-repost-of-a-citizens-arrest-fantasy?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_3&pm_medium=web
“Trump is still giddily nudging potential violence along, now by promoting a particularly pointed attack from a Truth Social user. “MY FANTASY … I WOULD LIKE TO SEE LITITIA JAMES AND JUDGE ENGORON PLACED UNDER CITIZENS ARREST FOR BLATANT ELECTION INTERFERENCE AND HARASSMENT,” it read.”
Holdenhillbilly says:
Wednesday, November 15, 2023 at 7:24 am
Sacking Suella Braverman means “suicide” for the Tory party and Rishi Sunak has just “thrown the election away”, according to leaked WhatsApp messages between members of a grassroots Conservative organisation leaked to Sky News.
———————-
I have some news for the Tories, the election was “thrown away” at least two PMs ago.
”
Mostly Interestedsays:
Wednesday, November 15, 2023 at 9:04 am
Pueo @ #48 Wednesday, November 15th, 2023 – 8:54 am
Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R), a former mixed martial arts fighter, nearly came to blows with the president of the Teamsters at a Senate hearing Tuesday …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pO1HC8pHZw0
Haha, watched the clip with the subtitles on. Cleared up a multi decade misheard lyric. I thought the line was “When two tribes go to war, money, is all you can score.” When in fact the line is “When two tribes go to war, a point is all you can score.”
”
The Most ‘haha’ moment was when the Senator stood up for fight, he removed his ‘ring’ from his finger (for actual fist fight on Senate committee floor) before Senator Sanders reminded him being a US Senator.
I realise that the polls are of concern to those of us who fear another reign of LNP incompetents.
Things might look grim but the first article from BK reminds us of what is to come, in this case in Dutton’s Home Affairs Dept.
The LNP has few options for a leader. Dutton is both corrupt and incompetent. We have about 18 months before the next election. By then, thanks to findings from the Royal Commission’s sealed section, NACC findings and possible prosecutions, more information like that found about Home Affairs, all topped off by the Liberal Party tearing itself apart as the right wing religious loons and corrupt MAGA impersonators worm their way in.
They say you can’t put lipstick on a pig, and with the LNP we have a very ugly pig.
Mondegreens are fun!
Spiderbait – “Alex the Seal”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhI9q8x2nLE
Speaker Johnson: Separation of church, state ‘a misnomer’
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4308643-speaker-johnson-separation-of-church-state-a-misnomer/
“Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) pushed back Tuesday on the belief that there should be separation between church and state on the U.S., arguing that the founding fathers wanted faith to be a “big part” of government.
“Separation of church and state … is a misnomer. People misunderstand it,” Johnson said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” when asked about him praying on the House floor. “Of course, it comes from a phrase that was in a letter that Jefferson wrote is not in the Constitution.”
“And what he was explaining is they did not want the government to encroach upon the church, not that they didn’t want principles of faith to have influence on our public life. It’s exactly the opposite,” the Speaker added.”
Imagine a US Speaker saying the above. US Speaker is the second most powerful position in US politics and the most powerful post in US Legislature.
It is the only Congressional position defined in US Constitution. All other positions like Senate Majority and Minority leaders, US HOR Majority and Minority leaders are just conventions.
The 3 most important institutions of US are The Executive, The Legislature and The Judiciary.
Ven @ #52 Wednesday, November 15th, 2023 – 9:06 am
He’s goading the judge into doing something intemperate in return so he can call for a Mistrial. Typical Trump tactics. Judge Engoron knows the score and will likely ignore him.
The Congress is voting on the Approp Bill to prevent government shutdown
https://www.youtube.com/live/CzBaE6En-qk?si=2bpDtzYctwKdcUW2
First they need to clear the crackpot amendments put forward by the MAGA crew – then the up/down vote on the substantive CRs.
And it looks like the Repugs have split, with the Dems likely to allow enough votes to get this over the line
”
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, November 15, 2023 at 9:21 am
Ven @ #52 Wednesday, November 15th, 2023 – 9:06 am
Trump threatens Judge Engoron again, this time with a repost of a ‘citizens arrest’ fantasy
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/14/2205812/-Trump-threatens-Judge-Engoron-again-this-time-with-a-repost-of-a-citizens-arrest-fantasy?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_3&pm_medium=web
He’s goading the judge into doing something intemperate in return so he can call for a Mistrial. Typical Trump tactics. Judge Engoron knows the score and will likely ignore him.
”
C@tmomma
The thing The people who are threatened by Trump are under the threat of being attacked from Vigilantes.
They received lots and lots of threats.
Everything wrong with the USA:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=on-y9Pv-CJA
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-15/make-most-australians-richer-save-billions-fix-stage-3-tax-cuts/103104554
And here we go in the Congress – looks like the fix is in.
Question will then be, is Speaker Johnson about to get booted
https://www.youtube.com/live/CzBaE6En-qk?si=2bpDtzYctwKdcUW2
And here we go in the Congress – looks like the fix is in.
Question will then be, is Speaker Johnson about to get booted
https://www.youtube.com/live/CzBaE6En-qk?si=2bpDtzYctwKdcUW2
UK Cartoons:
VCT Et3e says:
Wednesday, November 15, 2023 at 9:36 am
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-15/make-most-australians-richer-save-billions-fix-stage-3-tax-cuts/103104554
___________________________________________
That’s an amazing idea. Why didn’t someone think about it before? Imagine redistributing s3 tax cuts just before they take effect so that poorer people get a greater benefit.
What’s really good is that if they announce it now, not in the May budget, Peter Dutton will be able to campaign for 6 months on Labor’s broken promise before the people who will benefit seeing a cent. Wouldn’t that be great for you!
VCT Et3e
Labor must address the S3 issue. There’s no escaping it.
The Repugs split, with 87 MAGA heavy voting against the Bill –
And about 127 MAGA lite voting for it – with the Dems all backing the Continuing Resolution to extend US given funding to Jan/Feb next year.
Repercussions about to start
I see Savonarola is back for another bonfire.
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, November 15, 2023 at 9:54 am
The Repugs split, with 87 MAGA heavy voting against the Bill –
And about 127 MAGA lite voting for it – with the Dems all backing the Continuing Resolution to extend US given funding to Jan/Feb next year.
Repercussions about to start
_______________________________________
Destructive purists abound. Even on PB!
Thanks for the roundup BK. This one comes as no surprise to people in my field, since there was a dramatic cut in Federal spending on new infrastructure projects since May 2022. Funds for planning and design of new projects were opbviously frozen.
“ Shane Wright and Alexandra Smith report that the federal government says without cuts and spending control, it cannot promise any new infrastructure for another decade. A collision course has been set between the feds and the states.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-roads-for-you-feds-and-states-on-infrastructure-collision-course-20231114-p5ejvy.html
THere was good reason for this, but it was really badly communicated. More to the pint, Infrastructure Minister King did NOT communicate the freeze. She mentioned the IA review, but not that money had stopped flowing. If the government wants engineers and builders to change industry from infrastructure to housing and defence that might make sense, but they need to say it.
Chalmers has said more about infrastructure policy than King has. IMO if Cabinet had a reshuffle, Marles and King would be the first to be moved.
And in the Guardian blog there is this:
Yesterday in question time, the opposition laid the groundwork for the political attack that the detainees who have been released get housing, healthcare and welfare from the government.
They used the very emotive term “taxpayer funded”.
But that has always been the case. It was the case when the detainees were in detention, because guess who pays for detention centres? It’s funded by taxpayers.
And it is longstanding practice, under governments of all political stripes that people released from detention receive housing, healthcare and welfare.
One, because we have obligations as a humane society. Two, because what is the alternative? Sending people we have rejected visas on character concerns, or criminality back into the community to fend for themselves and just hope for the best?
But the political attack has worked, given that “debate” segment [on Seven] ended with the host saying:
In the meantime they get healthcare, welfare. It is a travesty. No one in the country can believe this today.
____________________________________________
That is what Labor is up against. Everything that can be made bad about this country is promoted by the Coalition and its media mates, no matter what the damage to this country and no matter what the dishonesty.
Hi Cassandra,
This is for you. And all other dichotomists.
https://dragontv.ssis-suzhou.net/media/tim-minchin-the-fence-false-dichotomysmp4
Rex Douglas @ #67 Wednesday, November 15th, 2023 – 9:52 am
No. It would be great for Peter Dutton. And you know it. 😐
Meanwhile, the chickenhawk coward emerges from the woodwork:
“The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, has called on Anthony Albanese to skip his scheduled trip to Apec to deal with the fallout of the high court’s decision that indefinite immigration detention is unlawful.”
Also from the guardian blog.
TPOF @ #69 Wednesday, November 15th, 2023 – 9:55 am
As predictable as the sun rising this morning. 😐
Johnson is right about the first amendment- unbridled right to practice faith and no established church. Of course this allows representatives of all faiths to be guided by that faith, but I suspect he believes it only applies to bible literal Protestantism. Hence the controversy when congress people were sworn in using the Koran
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/feb/20/viral-image/ilhan-omar-didnt-break-law-when-she-used-quran-tak/
TPOF @ #75 Wednesday, November 15th, 2023 – 10:04 am
I do agree with Greg Barns’ assessment yesterday that these people have done the time for their crimes. We are a country of laws with an independent judiciary, or we aren’t. I mean, it got ‘Liberal Senior Advisor’, Bruce Lehrmann, off his rape charge.
And a list of the Congress members voting, with the final Repug split being
127 Yea
93 Nay – includes all the usual Trump cronies
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/14/us/politics/shutdown-house-vote-live.html
In a nutshell
———
Speaker Johnson Joins With House Democrats to Pass Continuing Resolution to Avert Government Shutdown, MAGA Furious
yabba says:
Wednesday, November 15, 2023 at 10:03 am
Hi Cassandra,
This is for you. And all other dichotomists.
https://dragontv.ssis-suzhou.net/media/tim-minchin-the-fence-false-dichotomysmp4
_______________________________________
There is a world of difference between sitting on the fence and walking a very fine line.
In this case there is no fence – other than in the propaganda of political opportunists and people strongly on one side or the other.
The Greens and the Coalition are sowing divisiveness in this country for political gain. Dutton’s sleaziness is obvious, but the Greens have calculated there are more Muslim votes to be won in Senate races than Jewish votes to be lost and have gone for it.
Jack Smith demands Trump gag order be reinstated after threats to family: report
Jack Smith Tuesday called for a gag order against Donald Trump to be reissued after the former president doubled down on threats against the special counsel’s family, according to court filings and reports.
Prosecutors argued Tuesday that Chutkan’s gag order does not prevent Trump from speaking publicly about the Biden administration or claiming he’s being prosecuted unfairly.
“But, like every other criminal defendant, he does not have ‘carte blanche to vilify and implicitly encourage violence against public servants,’” the filing states.
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, November 15, 2023 at 9:52 am
VCT Et3e
Labor must address the S3 issue. There’s no escaping it.
___________
clearly, but the political opportunists in Labor are too scared to do what’s right here. A return of the LMITO and the scrapping of S3 would be the obvious thing to do, but there are some frightened souls who will not risk it.
I see L’arse has enetered a competition with ‘michael’ from Menzies house as to whom can tell the biggest lies on this blog.
L’arse’s entry = ‘Labor’s IR Laws have cemented high inflation”. Reserve Bank says no (thanks to Sprocket for providing the detail, including the helpful graph. Thanks also to Team Katich in pointing out that wages have moved by 3.6%, well below inflation and appear to be slowing).
‘michael’ from Menzies House has multiple entries, which he has on high rotation on the blog but never backs up with even ‘factoids’, only a claim to vindication by polling movement. His corrupt mind seems to take Carl Rove’s add age ‘a lie repeated, is truth’ very much to heart.
There is no value add to this blog from either person. L’arse only seems to exist to pump the ‘Peak Albo” version [insert the number we are up to, I think it is currently version 6.0 since 2019]. What is the point of you mate? When you try, you can be OK. … but that is so rare.
“clearly, but the political opportunists in Labor are too scared to do what’s right here. A return of the LMITO and the scrapping of S3 would be the obvious thing to do, but there are some frightened souls who will not risk it.”
And it is way to late now.
If they backflipped now the best they could hope for out of media (and how many of the media will have a very personal pay packet interest in S3 from 1 July) is ‘they are doing the right thing, but they are a policy and governing shambles who doesn’t know what they are doing stumbling from one unpopular disaster to the other.
Painting themselves voluntarily into the corner on S3 like they have, has to be one of the weakest and stupidest thing we have seen in Australian politics.
Whatever they do now they will rightly be condemned as unprincipled, undisciplined and chaotic.
Still waiting for Lars to provide us with a link to any Industry Superannuation Fund that charges 1% or more in fees, as he has claimed they are doing.
I’ve looked and haven’t found a single one.
True LNP style, just put the lie out there.
Elon Musk’s X fails to pay $610,500 Australian fine — Josh Taylor
In UK politics, People Polling (a GB News outfit) has released a poll.
Labour: 49% (=)
Conservative: 19% (-2)
Lib Dem: 9% (=)
Reform: 11% (+2)
SNP: 3% (=)
Green: 7% (=)
Significantly, it’s the first poll that has the far right Trumpist Reform party in double figures. Things may get worse for the Conservatives if this becomes a trend.
Ven says:
Wednesday, November 15, 2023 at 9:06 am
Trump threatens Judge Engoron again, this time with a repost of a ‘citizens arrest’ fantasy
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/14/2205812/-Trump-threatens-Judge-Engoron-again-this-time-with-a-repost-of-a-citizens-arrest-fantasy?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_3&pm_medium=web
“Trump is still giddily nudging potential violence along, now by promoting a particularly pointed attack from a Truth Social user. “MY FANTASY … I WOULD LIKE TO SEE LITITIA JAMES AND JUDGE ENGORON PLACED UNDER CITIZENS ARREST FOR BLATANT ELECTION INTERFERENCE AND HARASSMENT,” it read.”
———————-
Ven
Given the response we’ve seen from MAGA supporters in the past, this too must surely amount to incitement.
I’m quite certain that Trump has two aims in his methodology, either to have a nutcase apply violence (ie: Jan 6) or to have a judge jail him for contempt thereby also inciting violence.
Why is “ScoMo” still a thing? It should be “NoMo”.
nath @ #84 Wednesday, November 15th, 2023 – 10:35 am
Says the guy who has never run for anything, against the media propaganda machine in this country, in his life. Easy for you to say without ANY acknowledgement of the political reality.
Go have a look at The Age of The SMH home page, these are the headlines:
* Dutton labels foreign minister’s ceasefire comments ‘reckless’
* Cyberattacks a ‘major concern’ for Australia, Dutton says
* Dutton says PM shouldn’t attend APEC until non-citizens issue dealt with
* Government allowed 81 ‘hardcore criminals’ into community: Dutton
* Watch: Opposition Leader Peter Dutton speak in Canberra
Dutton, Dutton, Dutton, Dutton…
And then try and tell me that Labor are ‘scared’. No, they’re sensible. Something that never occurs to you. Because you do want to be. You just want to run your mouth against the federal government.
Not my problem If you don’t understand what transaction fees are been there.
Andy – don’t know about 6 Albo peaks – in my opinion there have been 2 – in October 21 (in opposition ) and the other about April this year.
The data confirms the peaks. We’ll see if we have reached the trough now or whether it goes lower still.
“Says the guy who has never run for anything”
A Rexatious Belligerent.
Another Dutton fail: impermanent permanent detention accompanied by crooked hundreds of millions.
No wonder Dutton has resorted to lying all the time.
C@tmomma @ #18 Wednesday, November 15th, 2023 – 7:08 am
This was my reply to Lars Von Trier’s latest wheeze this morning.
Lars Von Trier @ #9 Wednesday, November 15th, 2023 – 6:53 am
Just slimy stuff.
Yes c@t lecturing on ethics – hilarious.
If you analyse the mainstream media you’d think that Dutton is the de facto prime minister and Scott Morrison is the de facto foreign minister in this country.
I’m surprised they haven’t been louder in calling for an immediate and indefinite moratorium on immigration to alleviate the housing crisis. After all, why can’t young Australians pick up those low-skill jobs that we have the outsource to employees. This includes college-educated Australians waiting to find a job that pertains to their degrees – it is better to have any job than sit around doing nothing.
Lars Von Trier @ #97 Wednesday, November 15th, 2023 – 11:41 am
Like I keep on saying, as you try and shift the goalposts on the substance of my critique of your contributions today, I have never accused YOU of being a ‘Backdoor Betty’, or a ‘lush’, without ANY proof at all. So you can put your sanctimony back in its box, Lars Von Trier. I’m surprised you even know how to spell the word, ‘ethics’, let alone practice it.
C@t – I don’t drink , I am not a lush
C@t – I drove home intoxicated to the central coast after the pb lunch endangering myself and others.