A fraction shy of a decade since returning Labor to power in Victoria after its only term in the wilderness this century, Daniel Andrews has called it a day, effective 5pm tomorrow. This will result in a by-election for his loseable south-eastern suburbs seat of Mulgrave and the choice of a new Premier at a caucus meeting to be held at midday tomorrow. (UPDATE: It is noted that party rules require a three-day nominations period.) Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan has long been the heir presumptive, reflecting the dominance of her and Andrews’ Socialist Left faction, although her CV carries the unfortunate entry of “Minister for Commonwealth Games Delivery June 2022 – July 2023”. However, the Financial Review reported in May that Ben Carroll of the Right had been “canvassing support in the event of an early exit” by Andrews.
The party has a strong incentive to fall behind a consensus choice, since party rules require a ballot of the membership unless 80% of caucus supports the winning candidate in a contested vote. Making Carroll deputy would restore factional balance to the leadership positions, but the Herald Sun reported in June that Mary-Anne Thomas, Gabrielle Williams and Lily D’Ambrosio of the Left might also be in contention. However, the latter’s stocks may have declined in light of recent branch-stacking controversies.
UPDATE: The Australian reports today’s caucus meeting is likely to choose an acting leader from among those who are not planning to nominate for the leadership in the three days available for them to do so, but the Financial Review hears different, saying the meeting is likely to hand the role to Jacinta Allan. An acting leader could be in place for some time if the leadership is contested, which would require a second contender to have their nomination endorsed by 20 per cent of the party room. There would follow a two-week campaign period before ballot papers were sent out to party members, whose votes would account for 50% of the result alongside the result of a party room vote.
The question would appear to be whether Ben Carroll of the Right, who is said to be canvassing support, goes the distance against Allan. Labor sources cited by The Age say the leadership is “Allan’s to lose”, but the Right could play hardball in forcing a vote if it is not assured of the deputy position. Anthony Carbines and Natalie Hutchins are mentioned as potential Right contenders along with Carroll, but Mary-Anne Thomas and Gabrielle Williams of the Left are also said to be interested. Carbines, Williams and Thomas, together with Colin Brooks, are further listed by The Australian as “possible but unlikely” contenders for the leadership.
Looks like Jacinta will have to repel Lidia’s revolution.
It could be a close run thing.
William Bowesays:
Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 3:03 pm
Sportsbet:
$1.20 Jacinta Allan
$4.50 Ben Carroll
$9.00 Lily D’Ambrosio
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Not a great talent pool.
Wood ducks the whole 3 of them and they all have baggage.
“ Wood ducks the whole 3 of them‘
Says the biggest wood duck on bludger.
Sukkar!
Yep the talent pool for Labor in Victoria is bare, the problem is they have been selecting ex unionists lately. The council has more talent. Jaclyn
Symes should be in Assembly and would be a future option. Why did she move?
Andrews was 10 days shy of becoming the third longest serving premier of Victoria.
Taylormade says:
Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 5:29 pm
William Bowesays:
Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 3:03 pm
Sportsbet:
$1.20 Jacinta Allan
$4.50 Ben Carroll
$9.00 Lily D’Ambrosio
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Not a great talent pool.
Wood ducks the whole 3 of them and they all have baggage.
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Better then the talent pool and baggage of the alternative
John Pesutto,Matt/Matthew Guy,Micheal O’Brien
Asha says:
Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 5:21 pm
Trent:
Since taking the leadership, Pessuto has somehow managed to tank his credentials as the reasonable moderate that the Victorian Liberals desperately needed (something that was already built on the very flimsy ground of a well-received performance during the 2018 election coverage) while also royally pissing off his party’s right-wingers.
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Spot on.
I am sure that there will be great rejoicing in the mainstream media, shoutback radio, Sky News and among certain posters here.
Premiers suddenly resigning after about ten years in office has been a bit of a thing, at least in NSW.
* Bob Askin resigned suddenly early in 1975. The Coalition lost office after another 15 months and two Premiers.
* Neville Wran resigned unexpectedly in 1986. Labor lost office about 20 months later.
* Bob Carr suddenly resigned in 2005. Labor held office for six more years, going through three more Premiers.
I think that there have been similar examples in other States.
With Dan Andrews gone, true, there’s not many obvious faces remaining in Victorian Labor that can fill his shoes, but in the election last year, Labor swept out most of the safe seat backbench dead wood with probable new talent.
While they’re learning the ropes this term, many of them could be part of a formidable team by 2030.
No one though Dan was going to be such a strong leader until he proved it in the role. So we can’t say how Allen (or others) will be until we see them in action, though she’s definitely my choice.
So Victoria’s State debt is about 200bn – so annual interest at 7% is about 14bn.
Victoria spends on health something like 17bn.
Basically the State has to either cut spending or keep borrowing and trying to stave off the reckoning.
At some point that reckoning is going to turn up.
By way of comparison NSW economy is about 50% bigger and has debt of about 120bn.
Labor has the advantage of having 55 members of the lower house, compared to the Liberals 19. So there is clearly going to be more depth on the Labor benches.
Let’s look at all those Liberals:
Brad Battin – Is the Hard Right’s leadership candidate
Roma Britnell – Took over Dennis Napthine’s seat in 2015. Shadow Rural Roads, Ports and Freight.
Chris Crewther – Newbie MP but was previous a Federal MP for a term.
Wayne Farnham – Newbie MP. Not sure if he is related to John.
Sam Groth – Newbie MP. Former tennis player…
Matt Guy – Former two time loser of a leader. Vertically challenged.
David Hodgett – Shadow Education spokesperson. Used to manage a Centrelink branch.
Cindy McLeish – Currently on the backbench. Married to former Australian cricket Jeff Moss.
James Newbury – A moderate but was mates with Marcus Bastiaan…. looks like a real estate agent.
Michael O’Brien – Such a loser that they dump him from leadership for Guy to return.
John Pesutto – Current leader who is struggling. Also Vertically challenged.
Richard Riordan – Hardcore Rightwinger who currently sits on the backbench and attacks the leader.
Brad Rowswell – Shadow Treasurer. A moderate backer of LOTO.
David Southwick – Current Deputy Leader. A dark horse for the leadership.
Bill Tilley – A back bencher since 2006. Enough said.
Bridget Vallence – Shadow Minister for Industry, Manufacturing, Innovation, Medical Research, and the Digital Economy…. expect to see her in hi-vis a lot.
Kim Wells – Has been an MP since Jeff Kennett won in 1992. One of the few with ministerial experience.
Nicole Werner – Newest MP. Also a religious fruit cake.
Jess Wilson – Newbie MP. Has a lot of potential.
Lars – The 10 year Treasury Corporation of Victoria bonds are currently yielding 4.7% compared to 4.02% for a commonwealth Bond. Not sure where you are plucking that 7% borrowing cost from.
https://www.tcv.vic.gov.au/tcv-bonds/interest-rates
Also current Victoria debt level is $116 billion, not $200 billion.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victoria-s-debt-risks-doubling-in-a-decade-budget-office-warns-20230603-p5ddn8.html
Victoria and NSW have about the same debt. Although Victoria’s is obviously higher per capita.
Thanks fairman – yes you are right re interest rate (took the household int rate). The debt I think ur referring to is net debt.
The article you linked also says debt is growing at about 10% per year – so I think my point holds true notwithstanding the interest rate is more like 4.5% than 7%
Anyway, Victoria has trams, and that is priceless.
Jeff Moss has a handy test average.
nath
“Anyway, Victoria has trams, and that is priceless.”
and so Sydney has started reintroducing them, as has Brisbane, while Canberra and Gold Coast have started the, and Adelaide is extending their network that had been down to just the City-Glenelg line.
Victoria is not in a bad place. Although it’s true that debt is a bit of a problem.
The latest figures on the economic performance of Australia’s states and territories shows Victoria leading the nation and New South Wales falling to last place.
The annual gross state product accounts from the Australian Bureau of Statistics record the equivalent of gross domestic product (the total value of goods and services bought and sold).
In the 2021-22 financial year Australia’s real gross domestic product – that is, adjusted for inflation – grew by 3.6%.
Victoria’s real gross state product grew by 5.6%, followed by South Australia (5.1%), Northern Territory (4.7%), Queensland (4.4%), Tasmania (4.3%), Western Australia (3.1%), the Australian Capital Territory (1.9%) and New South Wales (1.8%).
https://theconversation.com/victorias-economic-growth-leads-nation-as-nsw-falls-to-last-place-194721
Rocket Rocket says:
Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 7:34 pm
nath
“Anyway, Victoria has trams, and that is priceless.”
and so Sydney has started reintroducing them, as has Brisbane, while Canberra and Gold Coast have started the, and Adelaide is extending their network that had been down to just the City-Glenelg line.
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Please. we have 250 km of tram lines. 500 trams.
shellbell
You can be unlucky in Test cricket ‘timing’- Brad Hodge, Jamie Siddons (one ODI for Australia), Di Venuto.
I suppose even more so as a wicketkeeper where incumbents can last nearly a decade.
Some more on the State debt picture:
https://adepteconomics.com.au/australian-state-debt-ever-increasing-latest-interstate-comparisons-slide-deck/
nath
Hard to believe that Sydney had 291km of track one hundred years ago.
All we need to do is convert our trams into tanks and then roll out the tram lines into other states. Inch by inch to victory.
Rocket Rocket says:
Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 7:37 pm
nath
Hard to believe that Sydney had 291km of track one hundred years ago.
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well they chose Rugby League over Aussie Rules. Another poor decision.
Right-wingers only whinge about debt and deficit when they’re out of office. In office, they spend like drunken sailors, shovelling money by the truckload to mates and targeted voters, they recklessly cut taxes with no plan that they’ll disclose to rebalance the budget.
But once out of office it’s “Whahhh!!!! Debt!!! Whaaaahhh!!! The Deficit!!!!”
Steve777 says:
Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 7:40 pm
Right-wingers only whinge about debt and deficit when they’re out of office.
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Not always. Howard and Kennett were most assiduous in getting rid of debt.
Has a Labor government ever done similarly? I don’t know.
well pessuto is probaly triying to please the right wing how ever sky news would rather the liberals be in perminent opposition in stead of having a half modderit leader how ever if theindependents did not split the vote in haurthorn labor could have retained the seat bach is retiring after a few years in politics
What a bunch of graceless oafs these ex Lib Premiers are. Today and tomorrow are not the days to attack @DanAndrews. He’s history. You say thank you for your service and move on. They are just classless yobbos.
As for Pesutto: can we stop calling him moderate? He’s not and he never was. He is IPA.
Dan played hard and he dominated. 55:19 is an enormous lead.
Rumour is that Dan needs more back surgery and will be off his feet for months afterwards.
Another one is Tim Pallas is also looking to stand down and probably will do in the post leadership reshuffle.
Soon to be the subject of a new Peta Credlin documentary.
B.S. Fairmansays:
Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 8:00 pm
Rumour is that Dan needs more back surgery and will be off his feet for months afterwards.
—————
I’ve heard Dan’s back is worst than he has let on.
RR
Preferring Symonds ahead of Hodge when Martyn retired was the beginnings of a slippery slope
B.S. Fairman says:
Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 8:00 pm
Rumour is that Dan needs more back surgery and will be off his feet for months afterwards.
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I heard Jon Faine on the radio earlier. He asserts from speaking to people that Andrews is worried that Jacinta Allan is losing support in the Left and he’s pushed ahead his timetable to catch those opposed to her on the back foot and to force the issue.
nathsays:
Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 8:20 pm
I heard Jon Faine on the radio earlier. He asserts from speaking to people that Andrews is worried that Jacinta Allan is losing support in the Left and he’s pushed ahead his timetable to catch those opposed to her on the back foot and to force the issue.
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No wonder.
After the Commonwealth Games debacle I’m surprised she is even being considered, let alone being the $1.20 favourite to take over.
what would john faine know i heard his a long time labor party member who has long wanted a seat in parliament him self but could not get factional seport
it seemed like with dan andrews praise for tim pallas that he will shortly anounce his retirement very soon
Aaron newton says:
Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 9:04 pm
what would john faine know i heard his a long time labor party member who has long wanted a seat in parliament him self but could not get factional seport
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100% bullshit
BSF
Would you like to go thru that List again to identify those who come from the IPA (which includes Wilson) and those from the Pentecostal Bible Group (which includes the recently elected MP for Warrandyte?)
They all come from one or the other (despite these affiliations not being made public in the pro Liberal media)
This may also give a clue as to the tenure of the current Opposition Leader, currently in a slanging duel with his alternate as to who can attack Andrews with the greater venomous hatred because that is leadership Liberal Party style (this is how far they have sunk)
Perhaps also a List of ALP members, starting from the Bayswater MP who, I am informed, is a real talent (along with others who have been recently elected to the Parliament)
Thanks
And the analysis is never the debt
It is the performance of the asset those monies are invested into
In the case of government, GDP where someone else has referred to the data and Victoria’s status
People forget that it was Victoria and Victoria alone which kept the Nation from recession ahead of the Pandemic
Look at the Cash Rate and ask why
Then the Pandemic and the Cash Rate being reduced even further – to Zero
It is not where the Cash Rate is now it is where it was ahead of the Pandemic due to Australia being in a technical recession under the Tories – so the RBA compromised also by the staggering increase in private debt post the year 2000
Then you look at the USA and the GOP, no longer a GOP
With Powell’s comments and the shut down of government by the GOP financial markets are under pressure
Look at where the AUD 10 Year Bond Yield is today and the trajectory
The question with the Tories here is do we want to become like the UK and the USA (acknowledging the resilience of the USA economy with Biden, who is to march with the auto workers)
Whilst Trump does what?
Here we go again
Jackson Taylor MP for Bayswater is only 32 years old!
Everything I’ve heard about Jackson Taylor suggests that he’s an extremely effective marginal seat MP, but Bayswater is probably not a seat Labor can hold in opposition, which will probably happen eventually despite the best efforts of the Victorian Liberals (and is also vulnerable to being drastically changed or abolished the next time there’s a redistribution) so he’ll probably need to find a safer seat to have a long-term future in politics.
Steve777 says:
Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 5:52 pm
I am sure that there will be great rejoicing in the mainstream media, shoutback radio, Sky News and among certain posters here.
Premiers suddenly resigning after about ten years in office has been a bit of a thing, at least in NSW.
* Bob Askin resigned suddenly early in 1975. The Coalition lost office after another 15 months and two Premiers.
* Neville Wran resigned unexpectedly in 1986. Labor lost office about 20 months later.
* Bob Carr suddenly resigned in 2005. Labor held office for six more years, going through three more Premiers.
I think that there have been similar examples in other States.
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That’s politics !
Wayfarer says:
Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 6:38 pm
No one thought Dan was going to be such a strong leader until he proved it in the role.
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No one thought Annastacia was going to be such a strong leader until she proved it in the role.
NSW Labor would’ve been out in 2007 if Brogden hadn’t self-imploded.
Iemma was a gormless halfwit who had no rapport with the unions or the media but was lucky to go against someone equally unpopular in Peter Debnam
Lars Von Trier says:
Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 6:47 pm
So Victoria’s State debt is about 200bn – so annual interest at 7% is about 14bn.
Victoria spends on health something like 17bn.
Basically the State has to either cut spending or keep borrowing and trying to stave off the reckoning.
At some point that reckoning is going to turn up.
By way of comparison NSW economy is about 50% bigger and has debt of about 120bn.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
As my late father-in-law often used to say Lars “There’s a lot of money around”.
nath says:
Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 7:36 pm
Rocket Rocket says:
Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 7:34 pm
nath
“Anyway, Victoria has trams, and that is priceless.”
and so Sydney has started reintroducing them, as has Brisbane, while Canberra and Gold Coast have started the, and Adelaide is extending their network that had been down to just the City-Glenelg line.
__________
Please. we have 250 km of tram lines. 500 trams.
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Any time I visited Melbourne and hopped on a tram, I noticed a high proportion of passengers would not use their tap on and off Myki cards.
Does this still happen ?
@98.6
In Melbourne, Tram travel is free within the CBD. It’s only for journeys that go out into the suburbs and back that require fares to be paid.
B.S. Fairmansays:
Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 6:49 pm
Labor has the advantage of having 55 members of the lower house, compared to the Liberals 19. So there is clearly going to be more depth on the Labor benches.
Let’s look at all those Liberals:
Brad Battin – Is the Hard Right’s leadership candidate
Roma Britnell – Took over Dennis Napthine’s seat in 2015. Shadow Rural Roads, Ports and Freight.
Chris Crewther – Newbie MP but was previous a Federal MP for a term.
Wayne Farnham – Newbie MP. Not sure if he is related to John.
Sam Groth – Newbie MP. Former tennis player…
Matt Guy – Former two time loser of a leader. Vertically challenged.
David Hodgett – Shadow Education spokesperson. Used to manage a Centrelink branch.
Cindy McLeish – Currently on the backbench. Married to former Australian cricket Jeff Moss.
James Newbury – A moderate but was mates with Marcus Bastiaan…. looks like a real estate agent.
Michael O’Brien – Such a loser that they dump him from leadership for Guy to return.
John Pesutto – Current leader who is struggling. Also Vertically challenged.
Richard Riordan – Hardcore Rightwinger who currently sits on the backbench and attacks the leader.
Brad Rowswell – Shadow Treasurer. A moderate backer of LOTO.
David Southwick – Current Deputy Leader. A dark horse for the leadership.
Bill Tilley – A back bencher since 2006. Enough said.
Bridget Vallence – Shadow Minister for Industry, Manufacturing, Innovation, Medical Research, and the Digital Economy…. expect to see her in hi-vis a lot.
Kim Wells – Has been an MP since Jeff Kennett won in 1992. One of the few with ministerial experience.
Nicole Werner – Newest MP. Also a religious fruit cake.
Jess Wilson – Newbie MP. Has a lot of potential.
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Under what height does one become Vertically Challenged ?
or
Over what height does one become Vertically Challenged ?
Please answer in Imperial measurements.
Kirsdarke says:
Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 11:29 pm
@98.6
In Melbourne, Tram travel is free within the CBD. It’s only for journeys that go out into the suburbs and back that require fares to be paid.
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Dare I suggest then that a lot of people are getting a free ride.