Daniel Andrews quits

A short sharp race for the premiership of Victoria to follow Daniel Andrews’ retirement, followed in a few months by a by-election for his seat of Mulgrave.

A fraction shy of a decade since returning Labor to power in Victoria after its only term in the wilderness this century, Daniel Andrews has called it a day, effective 5pm tomorrow. This will result in a by-election for his loseable south-eastern suburbs seat of Mulgrave and the choice of a new Premier at a caucus meeting to be held at midday tomorrow. (UPDATE: It is noted that party rules require a three-day nominations period.) Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan has long been the heir presumptive, reflecting the dominance of her and Andrews’ Socialist Left faction, although her CV carries the unfortunate entry of “Minister for Commonwealth Games Delivery June 2022 – July 2023”. However, the Financial Review reported in May that Ben Carroll of the Right had been “canvassing support in the event of an early exit” by Andrews.

The party has a strong incentive to fall behind a consensus choice, since party rules require a ballot of the membership unless 80% of caucus supports the winning candidate in a contested vote. Making Carroll deputy would restore factional balance to the leadership positions, but the Herald Sun reported in June that Mary-Anne Thomas, Gabrielle Williams and Lily D’Ambrosio of the Left might also be in contention. However, the latter’s stocks may have declined in light of recent branch-stacking controversies.

UPDATE: The Australian reports today’s caucus meeting is likely to choose an acting leader from among those who are not planning to nominate for the leadership in the three days available for them to do so, but the Financial Review hears different, saying the meeting is likely to hand the role to Jacinta Allan. An acting leader could be in place for some time if the leadership is contested, which would require a second contender to have their nomination endorsed by 20 per cent of the party room. There would follow a two-week campaign period before ballot papers were sent out to party members, whose votes would account for 50% of the result alongside the result of a party room vote.

The question would appear to be whether Ben Carroll of the Right, who is said to be canvassing support, goes the distance against Allan. Labor sources cited by The Age say the leadership is “Allan’s to lose”, but the Right could play hardball in forcing a vote if it is not assured of the deputy position. Anthony Carbines and Natalie Hutchins are mentioned as potential Right contenders along with Carroll, but Mary-Anne Thomas and Gabrielle Williams of the Left are also said to be interested. Carbines, Williams and Thomas, together with Colin Brooks, are further listed by The Australian as “possible but unlikely” contenders for the leadership.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

220 comments on “Daniel Andrews quits”

Comments Page 1 of 5
1 2 5
  1. Farewell to a Labor legend, who wielded executive power with the same unapologetic vigour as a Kennett or a Bolte – but for the benefit of all Victorians, not just his patrons.

    And didn’t that drive his many opponents absolutely crazy.

  2. A great man, and a great union man. Arguably the man most responsible for the Labor revival, showing the country that we don’t have to give power to Murdoch scions, Cookers and IPA hacks.

  3. EightES, there would be an acting leader in the interim who would not be Daniel Andrews. Chris Bowen had that role for two months while the Shorten-versus-Albanese vote was being held in 2013. On what basis that person is chosen, I’m not quite sure.

  4. When Daniel Andrews became leader, he was heralded (to an extent) by a fellow branch member. My thoughts were, doesnt matter who he is, he wont make up for the loss of Bracks, but he did.

    Im glad he has called it though, baggage piles up; all other covid era leaders have called it, and the last challenge for Victorian Labor is to successfully manage a transition of power to a successor. Bracks->Brumby didnt work.

    Andrews’ lack of humility was starting to show to me as his biggest liability, but ive heard it said his leadership strength was his best attribute…

    I used to see Lily as one of the best ministers, but she is damaged now because of her Gas decision, something is broken in her office. (im sure a lot of northerners will disagree).

  5. Left at the time of his choosing, without vain glory, and after accomplishing significant improvements in public infrastructure.

    Left with a bit of a smell about his approach to politics, where the means were in his opinion often justified by the political end. His response to the last ibac enquiry, where hsu was paid off with a bs education program that excuse for a union never intended to implement.

    Most importantly, kept out the liberals who, in Victoria, are and have been unelectable.

  6. It is with an extremely heavy heart that I read this. A good politician and a great man! Alas, the days have gone down in the west, into shadow.

  7. Andrews has done well to pick his timing because he still looks dominate but the political tide has started shifting so by going now gives Allan or the next premier time to refresh the government. Jacinta Allan is an interesting one because she holds the more conservative Bendigo seat since 1999 so she wont be a political pushover.

  8. Andrews goes down in history as the fourth-longest serving premier of Victoria, nine days behind James McCulloch and eight days in front of Rupert Hamer. In terms of a continuous stint in the job, he’s second behind only Henry Bolte.

  9. Still, on the lighter side of things, it’s sure going to be fun watching Victorian Labor implode over the next three years. Now we get the entertainment of watching a 2023 Comm Games level debacle every month. Stay tuned for my 2026 Victorian State election prediction, hint, it will be a Liberal landslide. Nostradamus out!

  10. Jacinta Allan for my money as the next premier.

    3AW and the Herald Sun predictably are in meltdown. Neil Mitchell probably punched a few holes in some walls at this news.

    Both ‘media outlets’ and I use that phrase with some sarcasm have collectively run an ant-Dan and anti-Victoria campaign over the last few years particularly since 2020. Both are old, tired, irrelevant but also very dangerous.

    If I was JA and anointed premier I would out and out either (a) refuse all requests to appear on Mitchell or (b) appear on Mitchell and tear him a new one in other words give him a lecture on Journalism 101.

    ‘Dashing Dan’ will be missed by many but also cheered by a noisy minority. He alone along with ‘Sutts’ steered us through the worst of the pandemic despite some pretty major errors of judgement and mismanagement.

  11. Well done to Dan the man. I know that the various right wing media really railed against him when he was just trying to do the right thing by his state. Here in Qld our very own Murdochracy rails against the ALP and AP every single day. So far the people like in Victoria have voted against the wishes of the Murdochracy but it must take it toll personally and really wear you down. Good on Dan for weathering their nonsense and showing that the ALP is hard working and the LNP full of lazy so and so’s .

  12. Victoria has made great strides under the Labor leadership.

    The comm games was a big misstep. Agree entirely with cancelling them. The compo costs agreed to was way too high. Considering no one else has stepped up to host them or 2030 for that matter.. the Canadian city had pulled out straight after we did.

  13. No matter who the Labor leader the right wing media will attack and attack and attack

    Noting ALL media in Australia is Right wing (so Murdoch, Stokes and Costello plus the ABC – yet another Liberal on the kitchen promos then the NPC doubling down of criticism Tingle responded to, the criticism confirmed today)

    Back in the day Dunstan copped it day in and day out – then when he retired Corcoran copped the same

    Nothing ever changes

    That said, Andrews has just been too dammed good for the rusted on anti Labor groups

    And just too dammed good by not the length of the straight but by the entire course

    The opposition are still in the starting stalls

    Whilst Andrews salutes the judges and acknowledges the crowd a winner

  14. Good decision.

    Cabinet leaks and some poor outcomes (Comm Games) suggested it’s time to go.

    Made mistakes along the way but got many more things right and has led the infrastructure rebuild of the state which many before him thought was all too hard.

    In an era that sees leaders insipidly bend the knee to media and pressure, Andrews gave zero fcks about them and just did what he thought was right. Voters clearly liked that.

  15. Victoriasays:
    Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 4:01 pm
    Mexicanbeemer

    Kennett was voted out. He never got over it.
    ——————-
    Jeff probably still doesn’t understand it but if he watched Andrews he might learn why. Andrews has had his critics but strong leaders always do.

  16. My only (very minor) gripe is I wish he had waited until after the referendum was over before resigning as not to take oxygen away from it but, as I said, that’s very minor. Perhaps he didn’t want his departure to be seen as fallout from the referendum result.

    Anyway, best of luck to Dan Andrews, from what I saw from the outside, he was a good and effective Premier and his government managed the state well under him. His successor will have big shoes to fill.

  17. Wat Tylersays:
    Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 4:31 pm
    My only (very minor) gripe is I wish he had waited until after the referendum was over before resigning as not to take oxygen away from it but, as I said, that’s very minor. Perhaps he didn’t want his departure to be seen as fallout from the referendum result.
    —————–
    It could also free him up to do a bit of campaigning.

  18. Interesting thing is that if Jacinta Allan gets the leadership, she’ll be the first Victorian Labor leader from a regional seat since Clive Stoneham (from 1959-68, MP for Midlands, a seat based around Castlemaine). And the first Victorian Labor Premier from a regional seat since Edmond Hogan (1929-32, MP for Warrenheip and Grenville, a seat south of Ballarat).

  19. Gracious speech from Greens leader Samantha Ratnam.

    Graceless speech from John Pesutto – in accordance with the State Coalition’s pattern in their many years in the wilderness, which are set to continue for at least another seven surely.

  20. Someone stated that Neil Mitchell would be upset, me thinks they would be rapt, with Andrews gone the Libs in my view are back in the race. Allen and Carroll me thinks are not leader material. Andrews was seen as tough and strong leader doubt the other two are seen that way. However i don’t think Peustto is seen as a strong leader either. So it will be interesting.

  21. Someone stated that Neil Mitchell would be upset, me thinks they would be rapt, with Andrews gone the Libs in my view are back in the race. Allen and Carroll me thinks are not leader material. Andrews was seen as tough and strong leader doubt the other two are seen that way. However i don’t think Peustto is seen as a strong leader either. So it will be interesting.
    What does worry me though is Labor’ factions will they start arguing with each other now the stable horse has gone.

  22. SMH headline: Andrews steps down; Pesutto says outgoing Premier ‘trashed’ Victoria’s reputation.
    _________
    That headline alone proves the anti-Labor bias that None Fairfax has. So the longest serving Premier in Victorian history who less than 12 months ago won another election by a country mile has been no good

    Why do the Libs hate democracy so much? Are Victorians fools then?

  23. “for his loseable south-eastern suburbs seat of Mulgrave”

    Andrews did win the seat in 2022 with 60.2 2PP despite unprofessional media speculation surrounding that cooker and breathless reporting of his hilariously unscientific “exit poll”.

    I’m not prepared to tempt fate by saying it is unloseable, not with outgoing personal vote effects, but it would be a more incredible outcome than Aston if it happened.

  24. Daniel Andrews full press conference announcing his resignation as Victorian Premier.

    https://www.youtube.com/live/AXjAcbHrug0?si=NqY47KHh4EOETzPB

    I have never seen a leader reviled by Opposition and Media in Australia as Andrews was, whether it is Murdoch rags or otherwise, in my life.
    Just uttering his name would drive them crazy. Only Julia Gillard and Paul Keating were treated with such revulsion. Daniel Andrews is at the top of that revulsion list.
    The thing is that the media and opposition could defeat Gillard and Keating with their hatred. The more popular Andrews became the more he was hated.

  25. Andrew’s work ethic has been increadible. Its put others from the liberal party to shame. His work load would have killed me.

    My main worry for the future is whether anyone else will show the same drive, and have the same capacity to deliver the big infrastructure projects that are needed to cope with all the stoopid, unnecessary population growth

  26. Dan will be remembered as a giant of Labor and one of Victoria’s most important and transformative leaders. His legacy and impact will be felt for generations, when in the 2050s people look at the results of the Big Build and wonder how Victoria could ever have functioned without it.

    Pesutto’s speech was awful.

    Nearly always, when a leader resigns – especially one that has led a state for 9 years – both sides put politics aside and at least attempt to appear gracious, wishing them the best and offering some praise.

    Strange decision by Pesutto, who after appearing “gracious” in defeat in 2018 has tried so hard to fabricate an image as a friendly, approachable “moderate”, to choose not to do that and instead to be as partisan as possible in a scathing attack.

    That’s not exactly going to win over any swinging or centrist voters, he’s only preaching to the anti-Dan cookers with a speech like that.

    The right-wing media will be sad I think. While they hated Dan, they simultaneously loved attacking him and whipping his detractors up into a rabid frenzy. The Liberal Party also focused all their energy on trying to pile baggage onto Dan and hoping voters would just get worn out by it.

    My prediction for 2026 is that I think a new Premier, regardless of who it is, will probably reverse a little bit of the swing against Labor in those outer north/west seats and bring some of the generally pro-Labor but anti-Dan mob back into the fold. And I can’t really see the change in Premier reversing the gains Labor made in the eastern suburbs.

    Also, a Premier based in Bendigo rather than Melbourne could solidify Labor’s support in the regions, especially in contrast with an Opposition Leader representing inner-city Hawthorn.

    I don’t think there’s any good news for the Liberals in this. Which is great.

  27. Scrapping the Commonwealth Games was a great decision. But this gets cancelled out by the stupidity of the decision to host them in the first place.

    Let’s just hope and pray that the odious Labor Right faction doesn’t return to the leadership.


  28. Windhoversays:
    Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 3:01 pm
    Left at the time of his choosing, without vain glory, and after accomplishing significant improvements in public infrastructure.

    Left with a bit of a smell about his approach to politics, where the means were in his opinion often justified by the political end. His response to the last ibac enquiry, where hsu was paid off with a bs education program that excuse for a union never intended to implement.

    Most importantly, kept out the liberals who, in Victoria, are and have been unelectable.

    Windhover
    The opposition L-NP became a rabble and unelectable because of Daniel Andrews leadership.
    The came to such a sorry state where every act of opposition is a Hail Mary pass. The more desperate they became the more they invited questionable and disgraceful ideas and people into their fold. And it became a self fulfilling prophecy of doom and destruction.
    They stopped thinking straight. Every act became a crooked act.
    Pesutto’s speech on Andrews resignation is complete and utter disgrace. It was dripping with hatred.

  29. Yes Ven – I just read Kennett’s take – measured but still at least gracious.

    Pesutto is pretty naive – his speech will thrill the ‘haters’ but they were going to vote against Labor anyway.

  30. Trent- i think the Libs will be rapt, and the right wing media as well. Now they see their chance, the Herald Sun( which is a shocking newspaper) may be noticed again perhaps as well.
    The one thing here in respect to Andrews is that he announces his resignation at a time when News is more interested in sport. Therefore he is not wanting to be the headline.

  31. Trent- i think the Libs will be rapt, and the right wing media as well. Now they see their chance, the Herald Sun( which is a shocking newspaper) may be noticed again perhaps as well.
    The one thing here in respect to Andrews is that he announces his resignation at a time when News is more interested in sport. Therefore he is not wanting to be the headline.

  32. Trent:

    Since taking the leadership, Pessuto has somehow managed to tank his credentials as the reasonable moderate that the Victorian Liberals desperately needed (something that was already built on the very flimsy ground of a well-received performance during the 2018 election coverage) while also royally pissing off his party’s right-wingers. He’s been in the job for less than a year and already looks like an ineffectual joke. I will be shocked if he makes it to the next election.

  33. Mulgrave can be losable on particularly good election cycles for the Liberals, but they’d have to be polling 53-47 or better to be in with a chance of flipping it. The current Mulgrave sits on roughly the old boundaries of Oakleigh and Dandenong North, Oakleigh being held by the Liberals during the Kennett years.

    Hopefully Labor puts up a good candidate for the by-election. As for their opponent, there could be the possibilities that the Liberals don’t run and instead throw support behind Ian Cook the Independent Cooker?

Comments Page 1 of 5
1 2 5

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *