Miscellany: seat entitlements, electoral reforms, by-elections latest and more (open thread)

Winners in losers in the carve-up of House of Reps seats between the states, Gerard Rennick’s Senate preselection under challenge, latest by-election developments, and more.

Recent electoral developments at the federal level:

• The population statistics that will be used next month to calculate state and territory House of Representation seat entitlements have been published, and as Antony Green reports, they establish that New South Wales and Victoria will each lose a seat, putting them at 46 and 38 respectively; Western Australia will gain one, putting it at 16; and the others will remain unchanged at Queensland 30, South Australia 10, Tasmania five, the ACT three and the Northern Territory two. The vagaries of rounding mean the total size of the House will be down one to 150. Redistributions will duly be required in three states – Antony Green has a further post looking at the specifics in Western Australia, where the new seat seems likely to be in the eastern suburbs of Perth.

Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports a view that right-wing Liberal National Party Senator Gerard Rennick will “narrowly see off” challenges to his third position on the Queensland Senate ticket from Nelson Savanh, who works with strategic communications firm Michelson Alexander and appears to be an ideological moderate, and Stuart Fraser, director of a private investment fund.

Jamie Walker of The Australian reports speculation that Pauline Hanson will shortly retire from politics, with her Senate vacancy to be filled by her chief-of-staff, James Ashby, who first came to public attention when he brought sexual harassment allegations against Peter Slipper, then the Speaker and Ashby’s boss, in 2012. Hanson spoke to The Australian of her frustration at being sidelined by a Labor government that prefers to negotiate with Jacqui Lambie and David Pocock to pass contested legislation through the Senate.

• The Guardian has launched an Indigenous Voice poll tracker. Meanwhile, academic Murray Goot has things to say about Newspoll’s recent result and The Australian’s presentation of it.

Paul Sakkal of the Age/Herald reports the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters will shortly recommend donation and spending caps and bans on false information in political advertisements, which have the broad support of the government and the relevant minister, Special Minister of State Don Farrell. Labor’s new draft national platform says it will work towards reducing reliance on donations and move to an expanded public funding system, much of the impetus coming from Clive Palmer’s extravagant electoral spending. Donation caps are opposed by Climate 200 and the Australia Institute, which argue that donor-funded campaigns provide the only opportunity for new entrants to take on incumbents. Donation caps at state level of $6700 a year in New South Wales and $4000 in Victoria were seen as inhibiting teal independent efforts to replicate their successes at federal elections.

• This week’s federal voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan have Labor’s two-party lead out from 55.5-44.5 to 56-44, from primary votes of Labor 35%, Coalition 33.5% and Greens 13.0%.

State by-elections latest:

• The Victorian Liberals will choose their candidate for the Warrandyte by-election on Sunday. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports the outcome is “far from clear”, with 22-year-old law student Antonietta Di Cosmo di Cosmo reckoned as good a chance as any out of the field of nine candidates. Conservative allies of Deakin MP Michael Sukkar are reportedly split between former Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam and former Pentecostal pastor Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, while the opposing factional claim is divided between KPMG director Sarah Overton, tech business founder Jason McClintock and former Matthew Guy staffer Jemma Townson. Meanwhile, The Age reports Labor MPs are pressing for the party to field a candidate. Confirmation of a date for the by-election is still a while off, with outgoing member Ryan Smith not to formally resign until July 7.

• In Western Australia, Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reports Labor’s administrative committee has confirmed party staffer Magenta Marshall as its candidate to succeed Mark McGowan in Rockingham on July 29. Rather surprisingly, the Liberals have committed to field a candidate in a seat McGowan won in 2021 by 37.7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,896 comments on “Miscellany: seat entitlements, electoral reforms, by-elections latest and more (open thread)”

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  1. 7.30 Report

    Proof positive that the Greens a dickheads that only care about their perceived power & pressure.. its all in their heads..

  2. “7.30 Report

    Serah Ferguson ripping the Greens a new one…”

    I’m not sure ‘MSM hates lefties’ is as surprising as you suggest it is. And yeah the Australian Greens deserve a good bollocking 1000x more than some of their US and UK left compatriots, but still deeply in ‘establishment resists minor change that might annoy them a bit’ territory.

  3. “DH Greens are blocking social housing by wanting more social housing and rental relief.”

    I don’t think anyone else has read to the end of that sentence, it was a bit lengthy, so you’ll get a lot of TL;DR but you are completely wrong, responses here.

  4. “‘establishment resists minor change that might annoy them a bit’ territory”

    speaking of that topic has South Australia jailed a young mother for a lengthy stretch for wanting her child to grow up on a liveable planet and had the courage of her conviction to protest for it and delayed a Karen 5 or 10 mintues from after work drinks?

  5. I just got robosurveyed about my attitude to the Voice referendum. [Yes]

    Rather annoyingly, the surveyor did not identify themselves at the end of the survey.

  6. The Greens are stupid. They cannot claim a victory if it is not tied to obvious action on their part. If they wanted to claim victory about the $2 billion fund, they need to show how they got it – and not just amorphous “pressure”. They need to show they extracted it as a price for passing the Government’s HAFF bill.

    Instead, the refusal to pass the HAFF bill has actually decoupled the bill from the immediate funding that Albanese has promised. Now Albanese did his best to decouple the action by saying the $2 billion immediate funding would go ahead regardless. But this would have been seen as political spin if the Greens had said that the government caved to their demands regarding the bill and now the bill would pass.

    But the stupid Greens gave Albanese a gift by completing the separation of the immediate funding from passage of the bill. So they can say their pressure did it, but they can’t show how. Idiots.

  7. Housing crisis is manifest in 2 areas, lack of supply & increasing unaffordability in both rental & purchase.

    The only long /medium term solution is to increase supply, this will satisfy demand & drive down rents & purchase price.

    Greens solution .. freeze rents, reduce investment & decrease supply.. IDIOTS!.. Oh & stop any increase in Federal Government investment.

  8. Mao hits back:

    [‘Beijing: China has called comments by President Joe Biden describing Chinese leader Xi Jinping as a dictator “extremely absurd and irresponsible”.

    The new clash of words comes just over a day after Secretary of State Antony Blinken concluded a visit to Beijing that sought to break the ice in a relationship that has hit a historical low.

    Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Biden’s comments at a fundraiser in California “go totally against facts and seriously violate diplomatic protocol, and severely infringe on China’s political dignity.”

    “It is a blatant political provocation. China expresses strong dissatisfaction and opposition,” Mao said at a daily briefing.

    “The US remarks are extremely absurd and irresponsible,” Mao said.

    Biden, at the fundraiser on Tuesday night local time, said that Xi was embarrassed over the recent tensions surrounding a suspected Chinese spy balloon that had been shot down by the Air Force over the East Coast.

    “That’s a great embarrassment for dictators. When they didn’t know what happened,” Biden said.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/absurd-and-irresponsible-china-hits-back-after-biden-calls-xi-a-dictator-20230621-p5diff.html

  9. Yes23 @yes23au

    There’s never been a better time to get involved in the campaign for a First Nations Voice.

    Mark your calendars for July 2nd, and join the nation for a family-friendly get together as we come together for ‘Yes’.

    Head to http://yes23.com.au/cometogether for details and to RSVP now!


  10. Mavissays:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 8:11 pm
    Mao hits back:

    [‘Beijing: China has called comments by President Joe Biden describing Chinese leader Xi Jinping as a dictator “extremely absurd and irresponsible”.

    The new clash of words comes just over a day after Secretary of State Antony Blinken concluded a visit to Beijing that sought to break the ice in a relationship that has hit a historical low.
    ………..

    Biden actually said he shot the balloon down. 🙂

    Refer my post @5:16 pm

    Vensays:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 5:16 pm
    Did Blinken leave China after meeting Xi yet?
    Biden called Xi a “dictator”.
    (I know, I know Xi is dictator. I am just concerned about Blinken. That’s all.)

    https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/us-president-joe-biden-xi-jinping-dictator-chinese-leader-antony-blinken-beijing-visit-2395787-2023-06-21

  11. Boerwarsays:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 4:14 pm
    Burney is the Minister in the House and Gallager represents Burney in the Senate.
    ________________
    What a pair. As if Burney wasn’t bad enough, they then throw Mean Girl Gallagher into the mix.
    It’s got no hope

  12. “Speaking after president Zelenskiy [at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London], European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she had “no doubt” that Ukraine would join the EU. Addressing the Ukraine recovery conference, she praised the progress and speed of reform in the country, she said Europe could never match the country’s sacrifice but did stand united behind it.

    She spoke about a recent visit to Ukraine: “I saw a country that does everything possible to rise from the ashes of the war. Everything they are fighting for, and what they are dying for. They show it on the battlefield. They show it on the streets. They show it in the classrooms. They are fighting for their future.”

    Setting out her hopes for the future of Ukraine, Von der Leyen said it would become a “country that attracts foreign investment, a country that is master of its future, a country that is a member of the European Union”.

    She added: “Together we gather here to tell Ukrainians that their dream is also our dream […] Ukrainians tell us, when they imagine their future, they see Europe’s flag flying over their cities. I have no doubt that Ukraine will be part of our union.””

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/21/russia-ukraine-war-live-ukrainian-forces-destroying-the-enemy-zelenskiy-says-major-aid-packages-to-be-unveiled-in-london

    🙂

  13. TM:

    What a pair. As if Burney wasn’t bad enough, they then throw Mean Girl Gallagher into the mix.
    It’s got no hope

    You weren’t hugged enough as a kid, were you?

  14. I mean who gives a fuck about Australia Day being on the 26th of January?

    Until Howard and the Murdoch media boosted it up late last century to be a rah rah bronzed Aussie with flag covered bucket hats palooza, nobody cared about anything other than a well deserved public holiday for the workers.

    Now it has turned into an anti-woke shibboleth.

  15. Sprocket:

    What are you talking about? It is a sacred day, celebrated through the traditional ritual of getting shitfaced before noon and then stumbling about a mates’ backyard BBQ while listening to last year’s 100 best American indie pop songs and suffering from heatstroke.

  16. Mavis

    “ Mao hits back:

    [‘Beijing: China has called comments by President Joe Biden describing Chinese leader Xi Jinping as a dictator “extremely absurd and irresponsible”.

    What else do you call someone who is the unelected absolute ruler of a country that does not recognise individual human rights? The People’s Friend?

    Perhaps we should ask all the officials purged by Xi for a second opinion. Except many of them are dead.

    That being said, it was undiplomatic. Thats the trouble with autocrats. Its hard to know what to call them.

  17. Beijing: China has called comments by President Joe Biden describing Chinese leader Xi Jinping as a dictator “extremely absurd and irresponsible”.

    Looks like a dic., swims like a dic., quacks like a dic. – he’s a WITCH!

  18. “Thats the trouble with autocrats. Its hard to know what to call them.”
    Sir?
    More seriously, it would show weakness for an autocrat to respond to a bit of name calling, and especially so if the epithet was “dictator”. Any name-calling crime would have to be against a grander entity, such as the state or the culture.

  19. It’s the Winter Solstice tomorrow, specifically 12:57 AM AEST June 22. Even though July is the coldest month in most of Australia, the days start getting longer after tomorrow, beginning the climb back to Summer.

  20. no matter how good a rugby league game is the officials have to make sure everyone knows it is the stupidest and least consistently refereed game on the planet.


  21. Zwaktyldsays:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 8:46 pm
    Surely Biden v Xi is kabuki theatre. Blinken was there to smooth things out

    Chinese might have thought that Blinken was there to smoothen things out. Alas, they know Biden did not change his views at all. He was joking about Xi in his absence.

  22. Watching State of Origin, the Qld coach should be appointed head of the ADF. Their defence is amazing. NSW seem incapable of varying their attack.

    Spoke too soon.

  23. Just been to a book launch by Alan Finkel for his new book: Powering up.

    Now understand why Andrew Forrest is so interested in hydrogen. Nothing to do with shipping energy to japan, all about Green pig iron.

    P1 and Rex Douglas would do well to get a copy and read it. With a bit of understanding of what is being attempted they might post less nonsense.

  24. unbelievable are the referees paid to help NSW? Ridiculously inconsistent in the ruck, with the tackle rules, with pretty much the whole game

  25. Borewar wrote, “convincing England to not throw in the towel so easily.”

    Oh diddums. You dish it out alright, but don’t take it too well. All I did was set the record straight. In fact England have won a hell of a lot more Ashes matches coming back from near impossible positions than Australia ever have. Of course, anybody with a modicum of knowledge about the game would know that. You clearly don’t.

  26. The voice can bring up issues of importance to aboriginal people so by saying they can’t bring up jan 26 is disingenuous from Burney.

  27. frednk @ #1834 Wednesday, June 21st, 2023 – 9:34 pm

    Just been to a book launch by Alan Finkel for his new book: Powering up.

    Now understand why Andrew Forrest is so interested in hydrogen. Nothing to do with shipping energy to japan, all about Green pig iron.

    P1 and Rex Douglas would do well to get a copy and read it. With a bit of understanding of what is being attempted They might post less nonsense.

    Oh, FFS. More Australian “Best In The World” bullshit. I am continually astonished that anyone is still being taken in by this nonsense. The only thing we are “Best In The World” at is digging shit up for export.

    In case anyone is unclear as to what Alan Finkel is actually proposing, here are his own words:

    It will take mining on a massive scale to extract the minerals needed for batteries and solar panels.

    In other words, “Business As Usual”. Un.Fucking.Believable.

  28. WeWantPaul says:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 9:26 pm
    How good is Queensland
    中华人民共和国
    Settle Cobber. Settle. Soon. Very very soon. But – it’s an Origin thrashing.

  29. “WWP wrote, “I have never seen so great a lack of self awareness before.”

    Yeah troubling isn’t it.”

    Yeah but it wasn’t at the same level of troubling as the complete idiot who tried to turn it on me, without any explanation of how that logic might work, but with a huge dose of self-congratulation. Breathtakingly stupid stuff.

  30. “Settle Cobber. Settle. Soon. Very very soon. But – it’s an Origin thrashing”

    I’m a teenage kid on the school bus through the back of Narangba at least three nights a year.

  31. We all know Xi is a dictator. That is not the issue here. Biden is a establishment Democrat, who doesn’t change his views if at all. They will do what is necessary to get upper hand. And he is 80 years old. People at that age don’t change. There are no. 1 nation and I read somewhere that they will fight hard to keep that way like Roman Empire did at later stages of empire.
    You may say Doh. Well it is Doh.

  32. WWP wrote, “Yeah but it wasn’t at the same level of troubling as the complete idiot who tried to turn it on me, without any explanation of how that logic might work, but with a huge dose of self-congratulation. Breathtakingly stupid stuff.”

    Entitlement does that.

  33. WeWantPaul says:
    Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 9:55 pm
    “Settle Cobber. Settle. Soon. Very very soon. But – it’s an Origin thrashing”

    I’m a teenage kid on the school bus through the back of Narangba at least three nights a year.
    中华人民共和国
    Ok Cobber. Queenslander!!

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