Recent electoral developments at the federal level:
• The population statistics that will be used next month to calculate state and territory House of Representation seat entitlements have been published, and as Antony Green reports, they establish that New South Wales and Victoria will each lose a seat, putting them at 46 and 38 respectively; Western Australia will gain one, putting it at 16; and the others will remain unchanged at Queensland 30, South Australia 10, Tasmania five, the ACT three and the Northern Territory two. The vagaries of rounding mean the total size of the House will be down one to 150. Redistributions will duly be required in three states – Antony Green has a further post looking at the specifics in Western Australia, where the new seat seems likely to be in the eastern suburbs of Perth.
• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports a view that right-wing Liberal National Party Senator Gerard Rennick will “narrowly see off” challenges to his third position on the Queensland Senate ticket from Nelson Savanh, who works with strategic communications firm Michelson Alexander and appears to be an ideological moderate, and Stuart Fraser, director of a private investment fund.
• Jamie Walker of The Australian reports speculation that Pauline Hanson will shortly retire from politics, with her Senate vacancy to be filled by her chief-of-staff, James Ashby, who first came to public attention when he brought sexual harassment allegations against Peter Slipper, then the Speaker and Ashby’s boss, in 2012. Hanson spoke to The Australian of her frustration at being sidelined by a Labor government that prefers to negotiate with Jacqui Lambie and David Pocock to pass contested legislation through the Senate.
• The Guardian has launched an Indigenous Voice poll tracker. Meanwhile, academic Murray Goot has things to say about Newspoll’s recent result and The Australian’s presentation of it.
• Paul Sakkal of the Age/Herald reports the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters will shortly recommend donation and spending caps and bans on false information in political advertisements, which have the broad support of the government and the relevant minister, Special Minister of State Don Farrell. Labor’s new draft national platform says it will work towards reducing reliance on donations and move to an expanded public funding system, much of the impetus coming from Clive Palmer’s extravagant electoral spending. Donation caps are opposed by Climate 200 and the Australia Institute, which argue that donor-funded campaigns provide the only opportunity for new entrants to take on incumbents. Donation caps at state level of $6700 a year in New South Wales and $4000 in Victoria were seen as inhibiting teal independent efforts to replicate their successes at federal elections.
• This week’s federal voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan have Labor’s two-party lead out from 55.5-44.5 to 56-44, from primary votes of Labor 35%, Coalition 33.5% and Greens 13.0%.
State by-elections latest:
• The Victorian Liberals will choose their candidate for the Warrandyte by-election on Sunday. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports the outcome is “far from clear”, with 22-year-old law student Antonietta Di Cosmo di Cosmo reckoned as good a chance as any out of the field of nine candidates. Conservative allies of Deakin MP Michael Sukkar are reportedly split between former Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam and former Pentecostal pastor Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, while the opposing factional claim is divided between KPMG director Sarah Overton, tech business founder Jason McClintock and former Matthew Guy staffer Jemma Townson. Meanwhile, The Age reports Labor MPs are pressing for the party to field a candidate. Confirmation of a date for the by-election is still a while off, with outgoing member Ryan Smith not to formally resign until July 7.
• In Western Australia, Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reports Labor’s administrative committee has confirmed party staffer Magenta Marshall as its candidate to succeed Mark McGowan in Rockingham on July 29. Rather surprisingly, the Liberals have committed to field a candidate in a seat McGowan won in 2021 by 37.7%.
Borewar wrote, “He has introduced a new way of playing to the team, hence, ‘Bazzball’. Basically, convincing England to not throw in the towel so easily and to believe in themselves. ”
Ian Botham from 1981 says hello. I love how SOME Australians get all mouthy when they win a match. I love it even better when guys like Botham, Willis, Flintoff and Stokes shut them up.
Asha @ #1698 Wednesday, June 21st, 2023 – 2:53 pm
In practice, perhaps. On paper…not so much.
Gotta win a referendum on rewriting the paper before it really works like that if/when push comes to shove.
@ Pi – Albo didn’t enter politics when he was a child, and he went to a middle of the road independent Catholic school in St Mary’s Cathedral.
The point that was made earlier was a full time salary was a great equaliser that allowed working class candidates to break into the Parliament.
By the time Albo got into politics, he had worked at a Bank, was a political adviser and became the number 2 man in the NSW Labor Head Office earning a 6 figure salary and had owned his own home.
So no, by that definition he was not working class.
A working class MP would be someone like a train driver, an orderly or aged care worker. Someone who rents or lives currently in Housing Commission.
The biggest issue in this country as is with all Western Democratic nations and their political representatives, is class and the hegemony.
I just caught up with all the cricket highlights from last night. I thought it was a great game, and Australia did well with the bat last night to win. But I think it is dangerous to judge the whole match by the last day.
Overall it was a close, high quality game that could have gone either way. There were good performances on both sides and neither team played badly. A few dropped catches held could have swung it for both sides. I’m looking forward to a good series, on free to air TV as it should be.
Sofronoff KC, when he has seen off the ACT DPP, should take the caravan south to deal with this.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/21/lawyer-x-special-investigator-wants-own-office-abolished-over-dpps-refusal-to-lay-charges
Labor not doing well on the Voice in QT. The Coalition and Thorpe are tag teaming their questions in the House and the Senate, triggering at least one contradictory response.
Burney is not nimble.
Asked whether the Voice might give advice on parking tickets she should have replied that Indigenous people have died in custody for want of the money to pay a simple parking ticket.
No brainer.
Instead she said, wtte, no.
Gallager in the Senate, representing the Minister for Indigenous Affairs is similarly pedestrian.
Burke still running POOs in order to protect Burney.
Labor need to lift this significantly because it is, IMO, a QT bugger up.
I’d love to know how many Greens MPs came from Working Class backgrounds into parliament? The Father of The Greens was a doctor, from back in the day when they earned a healthy salary.
Actually, the most ‘Working Class’ MP I can think of is the Member for Tangney:
https://www.alp.org.au/our-people/our-people/sam-lim/
I think his input might help to inform the thinking of the government. 😐
Not that they really need such things in order to empathise with the Working Class.
clem attlee says:
Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 3:04 pm
Borewar wrote, “He has introduced a new way of playing to the team, hence, ‘Bazzball’. Basically, convincing England to not throw in the towel so easily and to believe in themselves. ”
————————————————————-
What the f*ck is wrong with you clem attlee? I have said nothing to you or about you or about any of your posts. Yet you start by bastardizing my posting name. And you top that off by attributing words to me that I did not post. If you can’t post with a modicum of respect and you are too slack-arsed to get your basic facts right why not just do Bludger a favour and f*ck off.
That escalated quickly.
clem attlee @ #1270 Wednesday, June 21st, 2023 – 2:59 pm
Just your opinion and quite frankly, not worth a piece of piss, considering its origin.
@cat Sam definitely, and the fact that he is non-Anglo gives some greater perspective to the Labor caucus.
Lambie for all her faults, would definitely fit the Working Class tag, having sold her house to fund her campaign, raising 2 boys as a single parent and serving in the Army only to have her career ended due to injury.
Big D, the member for Hunter is another one that comes to mind.
Would like to see more class representation in the Senate.
Ian Botham from 1981 says, “Thanks for having two key players bet against their own team, especially your spearhead fast bowler who kept bowling bouncers at me no matter how many times I hit them over the fence, instead of, you know, aiming at my stumps. Which I’m sure was pure coincidence, because both the players in question promised, absolutely promised, that their bet against their own team didn’t affect their performance one tiny bit.”
Boerwar
The voice wont be looking at parking tickets and by saying people don’t have money for fines goes to the yes campaigns problem because Canberra doesn’t need a voice to fix that problem.
@BW – you’re being too harsh on Burney and Gallagher
They’re doing an amazing job defending the voice, considering the hand they’ve been dealt.
The position they’ve been asked to defend is too hard.
They need to go out to half the country with “don’t worry, the voice won’t actually lead to anything happening because the government will just ignore it”, whilst simultaneously telling the other half of the country how important a measure it is. Doublethink is hard.
Equally, Labor spokespeople are recebtly on the record saying that Putin’s referenda in ukraine are a sham and that no vote can be valid because Russia committed genocide of the existing population and moved their own population in before holding the referenda, but they also have to defend the idea of a voice created by the aus constitution negotiating a treaty with a government that has no moral or legal basis to exist before the treaty is signed.
They’re doing an amazing job.
Rufus: “if you think the majority of our current MPs particularly on the Labor side are working class,”
Pi: You’re saying the Albanese didn’t come from a working class background?
Rufus: “Albo didn’t enter politics when he was a child”
So it doesn’t matter what background a person has? Everyone has the same opportunities? Even people from working class backgrounds? As opposed to people who are born into wealth?
Rufus: “The point that was made earlier was a full time salary”
Your point is a strawman. It was never a valid argument.
Why aren’t Labor using Patrick Dodson more?
I feel like his avuncular charm would do wonders. Like a less pretentious Noel Pearson.
Maybe the Voice should be deferring more to more professional and experienced indigenous media voices like Stan Grant and Ernie Dingo (who does a lot of great Corporate work) to get the message out.
If they don’t try and get people like Jess Mauboy and JT front and centre they’re wasting the opportunity.
Celebrities not politicians will get this across the line.
It seems like the “Yes” campaign has a severe marketing problem. Albo and Burney maybe need to step back a bit
clem attlee @ #1700 Wednesday, June 21st, 2023 – 2:29 pm
Father Jack? Father Jack Hackett?
Of course they are my opinions. Why dont you give your opinions and give us reasons why they are better? Or are you just needing a hug? Reading on, I see you seem gruff about “mouthy Australians”. I think you will find my posts have been defending Englands tactics and talking up their players (except Ollie). But whatevs….
Voice Endeavoursays:
Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 3:50 pm
@BW – you’re being too harsh on Burney and Gallagher
They’re doing an amazing job defending the voice, considering the hand they’ve been dealt.
The position they’ve been asked to defend is too hard.
They need to go out to half the country with “don’t worry, the voice won’t actually lead to anything happening because the government will just ignore it”, whilst simultaneously telling the other half of the country how important a measure it is. Doublethink is hard.
They’re doing an amazing job.
————————-
They choose to hold a referendum and they are doing a poor job of selling it and the noes are only winning because the yes has not sold how it will do better than what’s already there and how that’s a good thing Daniel Andrews gave the yes the narrative and they have to build on that.
“talking up their players (except Ollie)”
Which one?!
Why aren’t Labor using Patrick Dodson more?
Dodson is on leave receiving treatment for an unspecified illness. It has been mentioned often and was again this week.
Pay attention.
Dandy Murray @ #1719 Wednesday, June 21st, 2023 – 3:29 pm
Yes.
@ Pi – my point is whilst Albo’s story inspirational to some, as an adult comparative to another political aspirant who continues to work a low-paying job and pays rent, our PM would not be deemed working class.
Labor, I think overlooks, many of its talented members and volunteers, who often do not swim in the same circles as union leaders and other apparatchiks and therefore are not afforded the same opportunities.
It’s much easier for politicians to dismiss the plight of in particular the working poor when they are continually removed from it.
Backstories are great but present circumstances are better
Rufus: ” my point is whilst Albo’s story inspirational to some”
I thought your point was that labor members don’t come from a working class background. Doesn’t the actual leader of the labor party coming from a working class background directly contradict your assertion? And now you’re trying to change the goalposts because your assertion has unraveled at the first query?
@Rossmcg sorry champ, here I was thinking that people could record videos or audio messages to be played on tv and radio.
Even more impactful to have an ailing Aboriginal elder speak passionately about the Voice.
Again wasted opportunity. Yet people like yourself’s only contribution is to “pay attention” , “look it up” or “do your research”. Highly persuasive
‘Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 3:45 pm
Boerwar
The voice wont be looking at parking tickets and by saying people don’t have money for fines goes to the yes campaigns problem because Canberra doesn’t need a voice to fix that problem.’
———————————————————-
Apparently Canberra DOES need the Voice to fix that problem.
Parking fines as an excellent place where the Voice can make a significant difference.
(It is not the purpose of the Voice to ‘fix’ problems.)
The Voice is able to advise Parliament that the inability of Indigenous people to pay minor fines, including parking fines, is a significant contributor to Aboriginal deaths in Custody.
This inability increases the custody rate and there is a direct relationship between custody rates and death rates.
The most direct way to reduce Aboriginal Deaths in Custody is to reduce incarceration rates – including those involving the nothingburgers of parking fines.
Rufus you seem to have zero interest in actual positive outcomes for the voice, and are only interested in criticisms of it and the campaign for it.
“Asked whether the Voice might give advice on parking tickets she should have replied that Indigenous people have died in custody for want of the money to pay a simple parking ticket.”
And the No campaign would ignore the bit about death in custody to run headlines “Labor admits Voice will even be involved in parking tickets”, reinforcing the narrative about the Voice being some giant red-tape producing octopus clogging the works.
Parking tickets are local council business, not Federal government. Burney is right to dismiss the shit out of the question.
Burney is the Minister in the House and Gallager represents Burney in the Senate.
Even were he fit, Dodson would not be involved in either role.
‘Voice Endeavour says:
Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 3:50 pm
@BW – you’re being too harsh on Burney and Gallagher
They’re doing an amazing job defending the voice, considering the hand they’ve been dealt.
The position they’ve been asked to defend is too hard.
They need to go out to half the country with “don’t worry, the voice won’t actually lead to anything happening because the government will just ignore it”, whilst simultaneously telling the other half of the country how important a measure it is. Doublethink is hard.
Equally, Labor spokespeople are recebtly on the record saying that Putin’s referenda in ukraine are a sham and that no vote can be valid because Russia committed genocide of the existing population and moved their own population in before holding the referenda, but they also have to defend the idea of a voice created by the aus constitution negotiating a treaty with a government that has no moral or legal basis to exist before the treaty is signed.
They’re doing an amazing job.’
=========================================
This seems to demonstrate why the Greens have been as useful as tits on a bull when it comes to the Voice.
There are two parts to the Voice. The first is to systematize Indigenous input to national policy and programs. No brainer but it does not exist ATM.
The second is Indigenous recognition in the body of the Constitution. No brainer but it does not exist.
Further, the Voice is envisaged as the first of three parts.
It will lead to Makarrata.
That will lead to a Treaty.
It is high time the Greens stopped sitting around while Cox and Thorpe and Goreng Goreng savage each other.
I haven’t seen anything from the greens political party that makes me feel like they are in support of the yes vote for the voice.
Apropos of nothing, but the name “Rufus Leekin” reminds me of those joke author names of joke book titles. You know the ones… Why Is There A Puddle On My Floor? by Rufus Leakin. How To Win An Argument With A Woman by Xavier Breath. And so on.
The referendum is doomed.
@ Pi incorrect my point was that most Labor MPs aren’t working class when they enter Parliament NOT come from working class backgrounds.
I haven’t changed any goalposts.
Albo went to a good school, and by the time he entered politics was a white collar professional on an upper middle class salary.
I don’t mean to knock your guy. His situation is not unique, I grew up in a single parent family went to a similar to Albo and had a grandparent as my primary carer who was on the pension (like Albo’s mum).
However overtime my economic situation has changed and thus my perspective and current lived experience has also changed.
Why we would we want more of the same cookie cutter candidates in our Parliament.
Chifley was a train driver and Keating dropped out of high school. Where are those types of MPs now?
Also to your point about not caring about the Voice. I do care, and I like to win. The people running it are amateurs with no understanding of marketing and psychology.
This is an emotional argument, they need to lean into the romantic aspects of Indigenous culture- the story telling. Similar to the way the Americans historically narrate the many tribes of the Native Americans.
Burney takes too long to finish a sentence and Gallagher is not the kind of person you want fronting any campaign especially one based on aesthetics, emotion and hope.
That’s why I’m saying the politicians should step back now otherwise it will be a campaign too clever by halves and will risk boring people into apathy.
Use Obama’s playbook. Pad the campaign with celebrities, video montage, music. Liven this thing up
“If you can’t post with a modicum of respect and you are too slack-arsed to get your basic facts right why not just do Bludger a favour and f*ck off.”
I have never seen so great a lack of self awareness before.
@Rufus: Move goalposts much?
Whatever job/s an MP held before Parliament, in Parliament they are doing a white collar job on a salary far above the average. Does it especially matter whether a working class kid becomes a union representative or electorate officer before entering Parliament, do you think that erases their memories?
Also it’s funny you should mention Keating – yeah he dropped out of school, and he worked as a pay clerk, as a union research officer and as President of NSW Young Labor, cultivating friendships with NSW Labor grandees, before being elected to a safe Labor seat at the age of just 25. He didn’t spend a life on the tools either!
Moaning Mundo is back!!!!!
WeWantPaul @ #1734 Wednesday, June 21st, 2023 – 4:37 pm
We have never seen so great a lack of self awareness before. ROFL
@Rufus:
“Also to your point about not caring about the Voice. I do care, and I like to win. The people running it are amateurs with no understanding of marketing and psychology.
This is an emotional argument, they need to lean into the romantic aspects of Indigenous culture- the story telling. Similar to the way the Americans historically narrate the many tribes of the Native Americans.
Burney takes too long to finish a sentence and Gallagher is not the kind of person you want fronting any campaign especially one based on aesthetics, emotion and hope.
That’s why I’m saying the politicians should step back now otherwise it will be a campaign too clever by halves and will risk boring people into apathy.
Use Obama’s playbook. Pad the campaign with celebrities, video montage, music. Liven this thing up”
This part of your post I do agree with. The Yes campaign, which has to be separate from Labor, needs to raise the volume, and need to play on the emotion and hope for the future, not leave things to the politicians to front.
Probably the best summary of Bazball.
“Perhaps it is too much of a simplification to say England play cricket as they would like it to be, while Australia play the game that actually exists. But it was certainly true here. England played the game of sprites and vibes; Australia played the surface and the ball that was bowled and however you want to spin it a defeat on your own terms is still a defeat.”
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2023/jun/20/england-vibes-sprites-cummins-bazball-ashes-cricket-australia
“We have never seen so great a lack of self awareness before. ROFL”
Enjoy your chuckles, I don’t get your point, I didn’t tell someone to leave, and if you ever your reading comprehension is good enough to point out I’ve made an error or misstatement I’ll acknowledge it, even if you throw a tantrum and try to tell me to leave here, which feel free it is a pretty stupid and funny thing to do.
I’m glad you enjoyed your own attempted burn, it is sweet.
Rufus
“Chifley was a train driver and Keating dropped out of high school. Where are those types of MPs now?”
Times change and so does what counts as a highly skilled job or person. Before Whitlam less than 5% of Australian school leavers went to uni. When I left school in 1980 it was 10%, with still only 50% finishing grade 12. Now its nearly half of all under 25s are studying at uni, and more than 80% finished grade 12.
Back in Chifley’s era being a train driver (in the days of steam engines with steam boilers to manage) was a complex task that required an intelligent, well trained person. Likewise Keating went to a good school (De La Salle) and reportedly was doing well when he decided to leave, rather than stay and go to uni.
@Arky he did work for Sydney Council, and was fond of recanting the story about “Being down in the tunnels with the cock-a-roaches”.
If 90-95% of the people entering Parliament from the Labor side, all come from the same breeding stock ie as either Union Reps (never working in the industry) or political staffers then yes that does dampen and narrow perspective on decision and policy making. Particularly when these roles either stay within a gene pool through family relations or cronyism through existing class networks.
Some people are happy with this arrangement.
I love many of Labor policies and vote for them more often than not. I just hate many of the MPs they elect, who harm their electoral chances. 2019 Federal and State elections come to mind
Rufus: “I haven’t changed any goalposts.”
Yes you did. Now you don’t even have a point anymore.
Rufus: ” 90-95%”
Now you’re just making shit up.
“Rufus: ” 90-95%”
Now you’re just making shit up.”
Yeah it definitely seems lowish, 5 – 10% of Labor candidates not being party hacks seems way above the odds, but anywhoo does someone have stats?
Boerwar
Apparently Canberra DOES need the Voice to fix that problem.
Parking fines as an excellent place where the Voice can make a significant difference.
(It is not the purpose of the Voice to ‘fix’ problems.)
The Voice is able to advise Parliament that the inability of Indigenous people to pay minor fines, including parking fines, is a significant contributor to Aboriginal deaths in Custody.
This inability increases the custody rate and there is a direct relationship between custody rates and death rates.
The most direct way to reduce Aboriginal Deaths in Custody is to reduce incarceration rates – including those involving the nothingburgers of parking fines.
——————————
This is the problem the yes campaign has because we had a royal commission into deaths in custody and we know welfare payments are low so the voice can come out and tell us what we already know with no guarantee that the government will do anything but this doesn’t mean don’t do it but the yes campaign has to own the failures of excessive governments for being why its needed and it needs to show real outcomes because its that failure the noes are using against the yes.
WWP: “anywhoo does someone have stats?”
If ya don’t have stats, don’t quote stats.
“This is the problem the yes campaign has because we had a royal commission into deaths in custody and we know welfare payments are low so the voice can come out and tell us what we already know with no guarantee that the government will do anything. This doesn’t mean don’t do it but the yes campaign has to own the failures of excessive governments for being why its needed and it needs to show real outcomes because its that failure the noes are using against the yes.”
I would have argued the no case is desperately trying to suggest the Voice might indeed be able to address those failures. The only reason to fear the voice is that it might achieve something, and you don’t want to achieve anything, you love deaths in custody, you love the ‘closing the gap’ being an annual reflection on how much wider it has grown.
The opposition from those who actually want to close the gap and stop deaths in custody is that the Voice can’t / won’t achieve anything on its own, the opposition for the other side, I think must necessarily be based in a racist fear it will.
(The you here isn’t mean to be you the poster, it is you the hypothetical person opposing the Voice.
Going to uni and being in a well paid job doesn’t exclude one from being working class if such a thing exists in todays society because most people work for someone else making them a worker.
Pi(ssy) just leave it be now you lost the argument and sound like a whiny undergraduate complaining to his professor about his Pass Condeded.
There’s no way you’d be able to name 10 Labor Federal politicians who did not either work in state or federal MPs office, Labor HQ or Union HQ (research officer) or some associated think tank like McKell.
The party will continue to insulate itself as it creates a professional political class that may have had distinct connections to the working class but moves further and further away from it with its MP selections.
Ah, let’s invent a new definition of ‘working class’ because we don’t like not being associated with them anymore.