Polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research federal voting intention (open thread)

Two new polls find a slight dip in support for a still dominant government and its leader.

The two polls whose Indigenous Voice results were covered in the previous post have now come through with voting intention results:

Resolve Strategic has Labor down two on the primary vote to 40%, the Coalition steady on 30%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation up one to 6%. No two-party preferred is provided, but I make this out to be a narrowing in Labor’s lead from 61-39 to 60-40, maintaining this series’ recent record as Labor’s strongest. Personal ratings show a softening for Anthony Albanese, down three on approval to 53% and up six on disapproval to 35%, while Peter Dutton is respectively steady on 28% and down one to 48%, with Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister in from 53-20 to 53-22. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1606. UPDATE: Further findings from the Resolve Strategic poll include 17% support for the government extending Philip Lowe’s term, against 52% for “choose someone else”. Eighty-two per cent expect further interest rate rises this year, with only 3% disagreeing; 67% expect inflation will get worse in the near future, with 9% disagreeing; 29% think higher rates are slowing inflation, with 30% disagreeing; 27% expect inflation to slow in the near future, with 40% disagreeing.

• Primary votes from Essential Research, which include a 5% undecided component, have Labor down two to 32%, the Coalition up one to 32%, the Greens up one to 16% and One Nation down one to 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor steady on 52% and the Coalition down one to 42%, with 5% undecided. Its questions on interest rates had respondents gauging the impact of six potential causes on a four-point scale, with combined responses of “a lot” or “a fair amount” coming in at 89% for inflation, 76% for pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, 75% for the federal government, 71% for Reserve Bank overreaction, 59% for the war in Ukraine and 45% for wage rises. Pessimism prevails, with 63% expecting more rate increases, 30% believing they are at their peak but will not come down for some time, with only 7% expecting them to fall soon. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1123.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,367 comments on “Polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research federal voting intention (open thread)”

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  1. i think drumgold is to blame it seems very suspicous thatsombody happind to find a reason to stop the trial just before it was completed maybi its drumgold who has traashed the prosumption of inosince by his desition to abandon higgins and use concerns about her mental health as areason hasnt shanihan and his team trashed the prosumption of inosince by claiming lehrmann is inosent and higgins made up the aligations but its only bad when a woman speaks up gallicher may have gone to far by saying she blelieves higgins but dutton should resign

  2. Mrmoney says:
    Friday, June 16, 2023 at 8:12 pm
    Hey taylormade. Make sure you do all the rehab and more that they recommend to prevent any longer term injuries .

    You want to get back to close to 100% as you can

    Good luck with it going forward.
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Out of no necessity he is travelling miles to a public state forest to fossick for fun for gold.
    Your conned. He could actually make easy $ from selling you a bridge.

  3. It just so happens I’m looking for a bridge ,I have a river to cross

    Have you got one for sale,at a good price

  4. China’s president Xi tells Bill Gates he is the ‘first American friend I’ve met in Beijing this year’.

  5. Boris Johnson is rumoured to be unveiled as the Daily Mail’s “erudite” new columnist days after quitting as an MP. It comes after a cross-party committee of MPs found the former prime minister repeatedly lied to Parliament before being complicit in a campaign of abuse and intimidation.
    The disgraced former prime minister is believed to be the blacked out silhouette on the Mail’s front page who will write for it weekly starting tomorrow. The paper promises Mr Johnson’s column will be “required reading” in Westminster and around the world.

  6. Ben Duckett was big noting before the match and even the press were praising him to high heaven.
    Some said he is next Michael Vaughan.

  7. PageBoi says:
    Friday, June 16, 2023 at 7:59 pm
    Thanks BW, that is actually appreciated

    I hope you have a relaxing weekend as well

    PS I just really hope I don’t hit a whale……..
    …………………………………………………………………………………
    98.6 recalls :
    I went on my first whale watch cruise about 5-6 years ago.
    It was one of the most incredible days of my life.
    Everyone on earth should do it at least once.

  8. We had a party tonight celebrating the 25th year of my dear sister’s management/ownership of a trailer park, with a little help from her dearest brother, Mavis, located in the Goldie hinterland, where the average age is circa 67.5, and where most feel safe, and where the maxium rent is $250 per week – rare on the Goldie. She’s essentially a Tory but she’s a fine, thougtful woman.


  9. Steve777says:
    Friday, June 16, 2023 at 8:42 pm
    ”Labor asked hard questions about the Higgins claims in 2021 and the Liberals sought revenge over the past week, but neither side will benefit from an escalation in the week to come. It is time to lower the temperature.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-lesson-of-the-week-handle-dangerous-material-with-care-20230616-p5dh4s.html

    But Shanahan and Federal Liberals are not taking back step.
    Going full steam ahead.
    We want our scalp and we will scratch your face, if needed, to get it.

    As one bludger posted “red mist”

  10. Reports that special counsel Jack Smith may be preparing a separate federal case against Donald Trump in New Jersey has caught some of his close aides by surprise and they are worried at how relentless he is as he pursues the former president. During a “Morning Joe” panel discussion on Trump’s legal problems growing exponentially as Department of Justice closes in, “Way Too Early” host Jonathan Lemire claimed that Trump insiders are beside themselves that the intimidation tactics that the president and his advocates deploy are failing.

    Speaking with co-hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski, Lemire explained, “There is real concern. This is something the former president and his inner circle have been worried about for a while.” “He is facing someone now in Jack Smith who they simply don’t know, they feel like they can’t intimidate,” he elaborated. “He is someone who seems immune to what their typical playbook is, which is the smoke screen and the attacks, the assertions of bias and, to this point, that just hasn’t worked.” “We see the New Jersey thing, I also heard last night from a few people in the Trump world saying, we’re not sure how real that is, but they also can’t rule it out,” he continued. “They didn’t expect all that’s happened to this point. We know that it’s not just New York, which they actually feel fine about. They’re deeply concerned about the Mar-a-Lago documents, and they’re really worried still about Georgia. Georgia has been the one that’s been the flashing light for them all along.”

  11. “But Shanahan and Federal Liberals are not taking back step.
    Going full steam ahead.
    We want our scalp and we will scratch your face, if needed, to get it.”

    The libs usually win this kind of war, usually based on an early surrender. But Dutton is very damaged, probably still a bit early to switch to the leader who is to run to the next election with the MSM cheering and boosting all the way.

  12. If they were smart the libs would have two leaders in waiting one openly supporting the voice the other holding Dutton’s line firmly, then after the ref switch in the one who was right.

  13. Oz leading article: Defence loses top secrets in hack

    Data on secret missile testing site, attack helicopters and police operations stolen by Russian-linked hackers as fallout from HWL Ebsworth cyber attack spreads across government.

  14. PageBoi says:
    Friday, June 16, 2023 at 6:56
    I’d recommend all bludgers take some time out this weekend, get away from the BS in parliament and the horrific stuff being put up around the treatment of women, and just do whatever makes you happy
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    98.6 says :
    As a retiree whose life involves watching lots of politics, the last week in parliament, which some may call BS, made me very happy.
    Pity it had to break for the weekend, just as it became humiliating for the Coalition.
    Can’t wait to read the weekend papers and I might just watch Insiders on Sunday as well.
    I think Speers has enough ammunition for a two hour show !

  15. Mavis says:
    Friday, June 16, 2023 at 8:48 pm
    We had a party tonight celebrating the 25th year of my dear sister’s management/ownership of a trailer park, with a little help from her dearest brother, Mavis, located in the Goldie hinterland, where the average age is circa 67.5, and where most feel safe, and where the maxium rent is $250 per week – rare on the Goldie. She’s essentially a Tory but she’s a fine, thougtful woman.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    98.6 same :
    All families have them.


  16. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Friday, June 16, 2023 at 9:00 pm
    Oz leading article: Defence loses top secrets in hack

    Data on secret missile testing site, attack helicopters and police operations stolen by Russian-linked hackers as fallout from HWL Ebsworth cyber attack spreads across government.

    Australian government and opposition were so worried about a lease of a site near Federal Parliament to Russia as security risk, they passed a legislation quick smart to cancel the lease.

    But the real security risk appears to come from cyber attack. I am sure some very smart heads are looking into it to plug it. But the thing is security breach has happened whether it is Russians or Chinese or someone else.
    This is problem with cyber storing system.
    In yesteryears we used to have paper documentation when stealing that documentation was not easy and it also employed more people.

    I know people like nath and Lars may say “hey rip van winkle, open your eyes and notice that we are in 3rd decade of 21st century”. I understand that but these security experts seem to be a bit helpless against these hackers.
    End of rant.

  17. Wasn’t it at Bedminster, New Jersey, where Trump waved around the Iran attack plan documents in front of the ghost writers of Mark Meadows biography?

  18. How long before the third accuser comes forward in the Van vanquishing.
    Surely if that happens Van will vacate his position.

  19. Ven,
    The putative Russian Embassy in the shadow of Parliament House was probably stopped for that very reason. To stop them eavesdropping on Federal Cabinet and so that the Russians couldn’t undertake hacking of government departments in the vicinity.

  20. Player One says:
    Friday, June 16, 2023 at 10:19 am
    I see the Labor partisans have changed their tune on Lidia Thorpe now that she is useful to them.

    I see that your phobia is undiminished. P1 – not only twisted but also bitter. Clearly, you have yet to reconcile to the facts – Labor won; Dutton is LOTO; the Lying Reactionaries (your favourites), in their sexism, their racism, their phobias and hypocrisy, their mendacity and cynicism embody everything that is wrong in the culture.

  21. “I see that your phobia is undiminished. P1 – not only twisted but also bitter. Clearly, you have yet to reconcile to the facts – Labor won; Dutton is LOTO; the Lying Reactionaries (your favourites), in their sexism, their racism, their phobias and hypocrisy, their mendacity and cynicism embody everything that is wrong in the culture.”

    Hilariously stupid. Deeply pathetic.

  22. WeWantPaul says:
    Friday, June 16, 2023 at 9:48 pm
    “I see that your phobia is undiminished. P1 – not only twisted but also bitter. Clearly, you have yet to reconcile to the facts – Labor won; Dutton is LOTO; the Lying Reactionaries (your favourites), in their sexism, their racism, their phobias and hypocrisy, their mendacity and cynicism embody everything that is wrong in the culture.”

    Hilariously stupid. Deeply pathetic.

    Aligning once again with a Labor-hater. How unsurprising.

  23. Aaron newton says:
    Friday, June 16, 2023 at 3:47 pm
    wonder whiy stoker had van on her sky news show a month a go.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    Now that’s interesting !

  24. Bit of a new experience to Boland. Either he gave very few runs per over or took wickets in early overs or both.
    But he gave away 33 runs in 7 overs
    (As I was typing this he took wicket of last ball before lunch.)

  25. C@T at 4.32 says :
    Anyway, here’s a suggestion, if my posts cause you so much pain, block me! But we know you won’t because then you wouldn’t have any fuel for your banal contributions.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    98.6 asks :
    Can PBers ‘block’ one another ?
    If so, how is it done ?
    (No I don’t want to ‘block’ anyone),
    Just curious.

  26. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, June 16, 2023 at 9:44 pm
    Ven,
    The putative Russian Embassy in the shadow of Parliament House was probably stopped for that very reason. To stop them eavesdropping on Federal Cabinet and so that the Russians couldn’t undertake hacking of government departments in the vicinity.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    ASIS has no doubt reminded the Federal Government of how Australia spied on Timor Leste and said if we could do it in 2004, the Russians could certainly do it in 2023.

  27. I believe the Federal Government has generously said they will fit out any new foreign embassy in Canberra at no charge, including retro fitting of existing consulates or high commissions.

  28. sory if im talking crap i know its not normal to be critical of the dpp but is it fair they ddrop chargis in lehrmann leaving higgins to live the rest of her life in limbo because strangly on thewhen the trial was concluding they happind to find some one doing the rong thing but would haveseems suspicous whiy were they looking for reasons to abort the trial whiy did drumgold leavehiggins open to attack from liberals

  29. the media framing is rong it is not labor bring up this gruby tacdick the only side weaponising higgins is the liberal party allgallacher is doing is defedning against a attack that seems to have no basis to it she was given some imformation and di nothing with it there is no evidence too show any thing it would be interesting to know what morrisons ofice and there was reports dutton new about the story for a few days but not sure if he told morrisong yet shanihan thinks its okay to sack van with out due process but not galacher van being in liberal terms a moderit being the most sexist liberal leader lets not forget porter singled out two people in his validictory speech for special thanks two peters dutton and vanonselen wonderw whiy stoker interviewed van on her show a month a go

  30. does any body know about vans background seemed a very low profile senater his biography is very vague as to his actual job aparently a consultent but no idea whoe for how ever he did call in party room for liberals to be more suportive of the voice

  31. any van has just quit maybi credlin or deaming could replace him saying now he is quiting to deal with mental health

  32. Hilariously stupid. Deeply pathetic.

    It comes down to whether you see politics as a team sport where barracking and vibes are the point, or whether you see politics as systems and structures that affect the wellbeing of people and the natural world, and improving those things is the point.

  33. As that great welshman once wrote for his father “Do not go gentle into that good night. Old age should burn and rave at close of day. Rage, rage against the dying of the light”.

    You and I are of an age where we should give that thought serious contemplation, and bang a few heads together if we can before we croak.

  34. The only visibility I have of Ms Credlin these days is from second hand reports I see here and elsewhere. From this information I would characterise her political position as Far Right. It would be a bit of a worry if she were regarded by the “Liberals” as someone appropriate to fill a casual Senate vacancy.

  35. Mr Van had a fairly undistinguished career in business before embarking on an undistinguished career in politics:

    ’Back in November 2021, [Crikey] wrote that Senator David Van was likely to join the ranks of a very specific political sub-species: “the senator you’ve never heard of, who briefly pokes their head above the parapet of anonymity to be associated with precisely one extremely weird and embarrassing thing before melting back into history forever”.’

    As it turned out, he did it twice.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2023/06/16/david-van-de-wintern-group/?su=UEJ5dU1IVWZVbWdidyt2NDV2RGQwUT09

  36. van seems tomade litle impact prity obscure for a senater whoe has served allmost four years even his first speech was very light on detail mostly just talking points hisaparently from a small busines background and his wife is a important corperate leader maybi simelar to the invizable back bencher anthony byrne who despite 20 years in politics remaind invizable has he found a job yet mckenzi told us constantly that hsis back bench role on the powerlis inteligents committy ment he was well conected but cant find any thing about him post parliament

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