Polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research federal voting intention (open thread)

Two new polls find a slight dip in support for a still dominant government and its leader.

The two polls whose Indigenous Voice results were covered in the previous post have now come through with voting intention results:

• Resolve Strategic has Labor down two on the primary vote to 40%, the Coalition steady on 30%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation up one to 6%. No two-party preferred is provided, but I make this out to be a narrowing in Labor’s lead from 61-39 to 60-40, maintaining this series’ recent record as Labor’s strongest. Personal ratings show a softening for Anthony Albanese, down three on approval to 53% and up six on disapproval to 35%, while Peter Dutton is respectively steady on 28% and down one to 48%, with Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister in from 53-20 to 53-22. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1606. UPDATE: Further findings from the Resolve Strategic poll include 17% support for the government extending Philip Lowe’s term, against 52% for “choose someone else”. Eighty-two per cent expect further interest rate rises this year, with only 3% disagreeing; 67% expect inflation will get worse in the near future, with 9% disagreeing; 29% think higher rates are slowing inflation, with 30% disagreeing; 27% expect inflation to slow in the near future, with 40% disagreeing.

• Primary votes from Essential Research, which include a 5% undecided component, have Labor down two to 32%, the Coalition up one to 32%, the Greens up one to 16% and One Nation down one to 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor steady on 52% and the Coalition down one to 42%, with 5% undecided. Its questions on interest rates had respondents gauging the impact of six potential causes on a four-point scale, with combined responses of “a lot” or “a fair amount” coming in at 89% for inflation, 76% for pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, 75% for the federal government, 71% for Reserve Bank overreaction, 59% for the war in Ukraine and 45% for wage rises. Pessimism prevails, with 63% expecting more rate increases, 30% believing they are at their peak but will not come down for some time, with only 7% expecting them to fall soon. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1123.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,367 comments on “Polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research federal voting intention (open thread)”

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  2. Per reports, Donald Trump sat in the court room with his arms folded, like the demented man-child he is.

    He’s also planning to capitalise on the proceedings by giving one of his stemwinder speeches from Bedminster this afternoon, New York time.

  3. Dutton very polarising on Resolve, with an almost insignificant number of fence-sitters (4%) compared to Albo (12%).

  4. C@tmomma @ Wednesday, June 14, 2023 at 6:28 am:

    “Per reports, Donald Trump sat in the court room with his arms folded, like the demented man-child he is.

    He’s also planning to capitalise on the proceedings by giving one of his stemwinder speeches from Bedminster this afternoon, New York time.”
    ============

    Of course. He’ll never miss a chance to try to make his crimes pay for him even more.

  8. One player from Ukraine’s national soccer team relates his experience in having to mentally deal with the brutal knowledge of his country’s ongoing torment at the hands of the Russians:

    ” ‘I am angry every day’: Zinchenko will not be silenced over war in Ukraine:

    Half an hour in Oleksandr Zinchenko’s company is a harrowing experience. The Ukrainian spends most of the conversation blinking back tears and he speaks with raw, unbridled passion about the horrors being inflicted on his country by Russia.

    “I am angry even now,” the Arsenal player says. “I am angry every single day because I really want to know what they are doing – to achieve what? To win what?

    “I hope this war is going to finish soon and in the end you’re just going to think: ‘Wow, how many people have been killed? How many people have lost one of their circle? How many people lost their houses, jobs or whatever – and for what?’ I just really want to know.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/jun/13/i-am-angry-every-day-zinchenko-will-not-be-silenced-over-war-in-ukraine

  11. Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin has vowed to defy an order from Russia’s Defense Ministry to fall under the regular army’s command—and he now says he’ll take other defectors under his wing to build the mercenary group’s ranks.

    His comments, perhaps the biggest indication yet of a potential military coup, come after Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu signed a decree mandating all volunteer fighters to sign a contract with the ministry by July 1. The move is widely seen as a bid to centralize military control and limit Prigozhin’s influence in the war after he spent months airing the dirty laundry of Russian infighting and, most recently, was accused of having his fighters routinely abduct and torture regular Russian troops.

    But according to Prigozhin, it all boils down to jealousy. Shoigu, he said, “can’t stand anybody who does something better than he does. And that’s why everyone is supposed to lick his boots. Wagner has never done that.” He went on to say the mercenary group was already taking in volunteers who don’t want to answer directly to the Defense Ministry. “Volunteer units are contacting us. We are taking them into our ranks as separate assault detachments and building them into our general command and control system, in which we cover them with artillery, aviation, provide intelligence and everything that is necessary,” he said via his press service.

  12. Enough Already: “Ie: “I am not a crook!”

    ***

    “I did not have sexual relations with that woman!”

    “There was no impropriety with Miss Keeler whatsoever!”

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Labor must summon the courage to ask older Australians who’ve done OK to help cover the costs of the last stages of their highly privileged lives. It’s only fair, says Ross Gittins.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/grim-reaper-is-catching-up-with-the-baby-boomers-waving-bills-20230613-p5dg1x.html
    Peter Martin argues that there are all sorts of things we can do to boost productivity, but working harder is one of the least likely to make a difference.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8232459/dont-blame-workers-for-falling-productivity-were-not-holding-it-back/?cs=14258
    The Albanese government is engaged in a pioneering experiment – bringing a distinctively modern Labor approach to taming inflation and reviving productivity, the two challenges against which its economic policy will be judged to succeed or fail, writes Paul Kelly.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/anthony-albaneses-pioneering-economic-experiment-to-tame-inflation-and-lift-productivity/news-story/f8def050e993ba513e536153cb43c4d2?amp
    Nick McKenzie tells us that a new joint taskforce will investigate Ben Roberts-Smith’s alleged crimes in Afghanistan after a long-running federal police inquiry was abandoned over concerns about admissibility of evidence.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/massive-blow-afp-war-crimes-probe-collapses-over-risk-of-tainted-evidence-20230613-p5dg7c.html
    It appears no action is being taken against more senior officers who had the responsibility of command over Ben Roberts-Smith during his alleged war crimes in Afghanistan, writes Belinda Jones.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/ben-roberts-smiths-alleged-war-crimes-higher-ups-off-the-hook,17598
    Campaigners against the Indigenous Voice referendum are copying Donald Trump by weaponising misinformation, Indigenous Affairs Minister Linda Burney has declared, as Voice backers implore Australians to keep faith in the reconciliation push, writes Paul Sakkal.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voice-opponents-turn-to-trump-like-politics-misinformation-burney-20230613-p5dg5u.html
    Katy Gallagher has rejected claims she tried to use confidential information about Brittany Higgins’ rape allegation for political advantage as former prime minister Scott Morrison denied misleading parliament over his handling of the matter. Gallagher told the Senate on Tuesday she was given information about Higgins’ allegation before it was reported in the media, but said she handled it appropriately and did not seek to weaponise it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-gallagher-deny-misleading-parliament-over-higgins-rape-allegation-20230613-p5dg5p.html
    According to David Crowe’s analysis of a Resolve poll, the nation’s economic slowdown has slashed voter confidence in their personal fortunes amid an escalating political row over who is to blame for high inflation.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rba-boss-should-lose-job-after-interest-rate-hikes-but-australians-expect-more-to-come-20230613-p5dg37.html
    As the debate over the housing crisis ramps up in Parliament, the impact of money laundering driving up property prices has been largely ignored. Behind the scenes, work is being done for Australia to catch up to global standards, but for renters and first home buyers locked out of the market, the damage is done. Milan Cooper reports.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/rampant-money-laundering-foreign-buyers-put-squeeze-on-renters-first-home-buyers/
    Australia’s juvenile detention system is failing our troubled youths and reform is urgently needed to rehabilitate those in need, argues Gerry Georgatos.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/prisons-no-place-for-young-children,17610
    The AFR explains how critical minerals stocks are now worth more than gold.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/critical-minerals-stocks-are-now-worth-more-than-gold-20230613-p5dg3s
    Australians could soon start to benefit from cheaper solar panels as a dive in raw material costs and a “boom” in global output delivers annual solar electricity price falls of 10% for the rest of the decade, according to a report by Clean Energy Finance.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/13/australia-set-for-cheaper-solar-power-as-supply-of-panels-soars-says-report
    Elizabeth Knight writes that Alan Joyce, who has had five months to fashion a legacy for his 15 years wearing the Qantas crown, has embarked on a slew of farewell appearances, something of a magical mystery tour. She tells us he aspires to be humanised by the masses of Australians, including the staff and customers, who have been throwing darts at him for years.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/joyce-s-magical-mystery-tour-to-reshape-his-qantas-legacy-20230613-p5dg5c.html
    The backlash against the world’s tech giants is gathering pace. The potential ramifications could be dire, says Stephen Bartholomeusz pointing to the European Union being reported to be on the verge of targeting Google with massive fines and potentially a break-up of its lucrative advertising business.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-walls-are-closing-in-on-google-and-co-20230613-p5dg2a.html
    The nascent Ukrainian campaign is under way. A key goal will be to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin that this is a war he cannot win, writes Nick Bryant who explains why Ukraine’s counteroffensive is the toughest military path to victory.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/why-ukraine-s-counteroffensive-is-the-toughest-military-path-to-victory-20230613-p5dg4f.html
    Former FBl boss James Comey says Donald Trump is in big trouble as he appears in court in Miami where the former US president has pleaded not guilty to the alleged mishandling of classified documents. Latika Bourke reports on how Comey has explained the significant differences between the two cases.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/former-fbi-boss-james-comey-says-donald-trump-is-in-big-trouble-20230613-p5dgby.html
    “Ivanka Trump is long gone, but Melania is waiting. Will her husband be president – or go to prison?”, asks Arwa Mahdawi.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/13/ivanka-trump-is-long-gone-but-melania-is-waiting-will-her-husband-be-president-or-go-to-prison

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Fiona Katauskas


    Andrew Dyson

    Matt Golding




    Simon Letch

    Glen Le Lievre

    Spooner

    From the US














  14. On Radio National, Andrew Bragg supports Jane Hume’s condemnation of the publication of Higgins’s texts.

    Liberals starting to back away from this shameful act.

  15. ‘Free food for everyone!’ … which they no doubt paid for via their donations to the poxy pretender to the American throne.

  16. A five-year Australian Federal Police inquiry into Ben Roberts-Smith’s alleged involvement in the execution of three Afghan captives has collapsed after Commonwealth prosecutors ruled investigators may have unwittingly used tainted evidence.

    The Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions’ (CDPP) decision not to prosecute Roberts-Smith based on evidence gathered during the AFP probe has led to a new joint taskforce being set up to investigate the alleged executions.

    The taskforce comprises detectives from the specialist war crimes agency, the Office of the Special Investigator (OSI), and a new team of federal police investigators not connected to the abandoned AFP probe.

    An AFP spokesman said in connection to the decision to launch a new probe into Roberts-Smith that Operation Emerald was now investigating the allegations.

    The CDPP concluded in March that the five-year AFP probe should not lead to a prosecution because of the risk it was unwittingly compromised by the receipt of certain information from the Brereton inquiry, a military inspector general probe which ran from 2016-2020 and used special coercive powers to question SAS soldiers.

    The potentially tainted AFP inquiries centred on the alleged execution of two Afghan prisoners at the Whiskey 108 compound on Easter Sunday in 2009 and an incident in which Roberts-Smith allegedly participated in the murder of civilian Ali Jan in September 2012.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/massive-blow-afp-war-crimes-probe-collapses-over-risk-of-tainted-evidence-20230613-p5dg7c.html

  17. Cormac McCarthy, the Pulitzer Prize-winning author whose searing novel No Country for Old Men served as the foundation for the Coen brothers’ 2007 film that earned Oscars for best picture, supporting actor, directing and adapted screenplay, has died. He was 89.

    McCarthy died Tuesday of natural at his home in Santa Fe, New Mexico, his publisher, Knopf, announced. McCarthy also was known for his sweeping “Border Trilogy” — comprised of 1992’s All the Pretty Horses, 1994’s The Crossing and 1998’s Cities of the Plain — and his post-apocalyptic tragedy The Road, published in 2006.

  18. Enough Already:
    “Donald Trump has stopped by the Miami restaurant, Versailles, …”

    Versailles is a Cuban restaurant, apparently.

    Mixed marketing messaging in multicultural Miami.

  26. Michaelia Cash screwed the pooch for the Opposition attack when she went on Sky and said ‘weaponised’ over and over again. Labor never weaponised the Brittany Higgins allegations and the Opposition knows it. So, end of.

  31. Aaron Newton @7:26. ” i dont know what the liberals hope to gain from attacking gallacher maybi because she was act mp before federal”

    I think that it is a matter of the Liberals working with NewsCorp:

    1. To distract attention from a messy and upleasant imbroglio that reflected very poorly on them.
    2. To weaponise the alleged crime and the surrounding circumstances for political gain by making it about Labor and a Labor Minister.

  33. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, June 14, 2023 at 7:29 am
    Michaelia Cash screwed the pooch for the Opposition attack when she went on Sky and said ‘weaponised’ over and over again. Labor never weaponised the Brittany Higgins allegations and the Opposition knows it. So, end of.

    __________________________________

    It’s a bit like Putin’s fascistic invasion of Ukraine purportedly to free it of nazis.

  34. “Putin during a meeting with the so-called “war reporters,” as cited by Russian media

    Quote: “Why should they (Ukrainians – ed.) live at our expense in our historical territories? And if they want to live in our historical territories, then influence your political leadership in such a way that normal relations with Russia are built, so that no one from these territories is threatened. That’s the problem!””

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/13/7406714/

    No. In 1991, Ukraine was established peacefully and legally, with full agreement from Moscow. Ukraine belongs to the Ukrainians, not the Russians. Putin shows he absolutely does not recognise Ukrainians as a sovereign people and that therefore he cannot be reasoned with.

  35. UK Cartoons:
    Morten Morland on #BorisJohnson #RishiSunak #ToryCivilWar #BorisResignation #JacobReesMogg #NadineDorries

    Dave Brown on #BorisJohnson #RishiSunak #ToryCivilWar #BorisResignation #BorisHonoursList #10DowningSt #ThePrisoner

    Henny Beaumont on Fireman Rishi trying to put out fires #BorisJohnson keeps stoking

    Patrick Blower on #CovidInquiry #BorisJohnson

    Walt Handelsman on #TrumpIndicted #Trump

    Christian Adams on #RishiSunak #BorisJohnson

    Martyn Turner on #BorisJohnson and his resignation as an MP

    Stephen Camley on #Berlusconi #TrumpTreason #BorisJohnsonResigns #NicolaSturgeonArrested

    Morten Morland on #NicolaSturgeon #SCOTLAND #SturgeonArrested #SNP #cartoon

    Sarah Akinterinwa on #BorisJohnson and his resignation as an MP

    Patrick Blower on #Tories #SNP #UKpolitics

    Matt on #politics #UKpolitics

    Rob Murray on #BorisJohnson #BorisJohnsonResignation #Boris #RishiSunak #AI #artificialintelligence #politics #UKpolitics

    Morten Morland on #RishiSunak #BorisJohnsonResigns #BorisJohnson

    Christian Adams on #NicolaSturgeon #SCOTLAND #SturgeonArrested #cartoon

    Brighty: #NigelFarage urges #BorisJohnson to join a new centre-right political party

  36. Republican presidential field in disarray as Trump’s indictment sinks in

    (Read the reactions of various Republican Presidential candidates.)

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/13/2175166/-Republican-presidential-field-in-disarray-as-Trump-s-indictment-sinks-in

    This reaction takes Gold medal
    “Standing outside the Miami courthouse Tuesday where Trump was arraigned, Vevek Ramaswamy challenged other candidates to take his Trump pardon pledge.

    “This is my commitment: On Jan. 20, 2025, if I’m elected the next U.S. president, to pardon Donald J. Trump for these offenses in this federal case,” Ramaswamy said, brandishing his printed pledge for the cameras.

    As conservative commentator David Frum tweeted, “I wonder how Trump feels about GOP candidates working so hard to remind voters that Trump is not only already indicted, but also very likely to be convicted, of multiple extremely serious federal crimes?”

    https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1668632011773452291?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1668632011773452291%7Ctwgr%5E2b0edee4aa4b20cf218bbb8ca46f04cc02be25be%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2023%2F6%2F13%2F2175166%2F-Republican-presidential-field-in-disarray-as-Trump-s-indictment-sinks-in

  37. “Working smarter is one of those things that makes a difference.”

    It certainly makes a quick difference to headcount.

    They promise if you learn and use all these tools it will free up time for you to do the important analysis stuff.

    Turns out it frees them up to employ fewer people and frees you up to apply for a new job.

    They don’t really want people spending time understanding the business they already pay PwC or friend to do that, and they’d much rather sack you than let you demonstrate that half of PwC’s assumptions, which underline the board strategy and direction, are wrong.

  38. ”

    Enough Alreadysays:
    Wednesday, June 14, 2023 at 8:34 am
    “Putin during a meeting with the so-called “war reporters,” as cited by Russian media

    Quote: “Why should they (Ukrainians – ed.) live at our expense in our historical territories? And if they want to live in our historical territories, then influence your political leadership in such a way that normal relations with Russia are built, so that no one from these territories is threatened. That’s the problem!””

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/13/7406714/

    No. In 1991, Ukraine was established peacefully and legally, with full agreement from Moscow. Ukraine belongs to the Ukrainians, not the Russians. Putin shows he absolutely does not recognise Ukrainians as a sovereign people and that therefore he cannot be reasoned with.
    ”

    EA
    What is the Minsk Agreement 1991?
    To ensure the permanent monitoring of the Ukrainian-Russian border and verification by the OSCE with the creation of security zones in the border regions of Ukraine and the Russian Federation. Immediate release of all hostages and illegally detained persons

    Did Zelenskyy warned that he will tear down Minsk agreement if he is not allowed to join NATO before Putin Invasion?

  39. TPOF,
    Not to mention the texts that Brittany Higgins has released showing that Michaelia Cash and her Chief of Staff knew about the nature of the incident with Brittany Higgins, despite both denying it publicly at the time.

    Not to mention that they, the Coalition, are the ones who are weaponising the incident now.

    To which I will just add that all of this is the old Abbott Opposition tactics writ large. Last time though the co-ordinated attack with News Ltd was against our first female Prime Minister, Julia Gillard. This time they are going for a 2 for 1, attempting to destroy Brittany Higgins, who dared to cross them, and the political careers of the Labor government Ministers, Katy Gallagher and Tanya Plibersek. With the PM being damaged by the blowback.

    But what they don’t realise is that this is 2023, not 2013, and times have changed and a whole new generation of women have grown up that are very aware of what the Coalition are trying to do here and they don’t approve. Also many men. 🙂

  41. ”
    Stephen Camley on #Berlusconi #TrumpTreason #BorisJohnsonResigns #NicolaSturgeonArrested

    ”

    How is Northern Ireland leadership stacking up to UK falling standards?
    One Ex-PM from England, one ex-First Minister from Scotland and no First Minister from Northern Ireland.

  42. C@t

    The fiberals look to the USA republicans, and think that the bullshit will work here. We don’t have the same right wing echo chamber here as they continue to have in the USA.

  44. Of course productivity is falling as labour moves from agriculture and manufacturing to service industries that are all about SERVICING the client

    How can you automate hairdressing, nursing, teaching?

    Can automate accounting, financial advice, coffee making, investment alogrithms

  47. “ The army’s Darwin-based 1st Brigade has moved from concentrating on land-based operations to shallow water operations where troops navigate through beaches and islands.
    Brigadier Foxall said previously the brigade’s job was to drive tanks and seize objectives on land, but now they would train using water as the “primary corridors”.

    Looks like a marine force, sounds like a marine force, it’s a …….
    I think my interpretation of the recently released DSR was correct.

    Some spare tanks for Ukraine?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-14/australian-defence-force-littoral-training-darwin-nt/102440772

  48. [Labor senator Jenny McAllister tells ABC radio RN she doesn’t believe there needs to be an inquiry into that but she is worried about the “tone” of the debate

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/jun/14/auastralia-politics-live-nsw-indigenous-voice-referendum-linda-burney-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-question-time-brittany-higgins-katy-gallagher-linda-reynolds-tanya-plibersek?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other ]

    So, Labor doesn’t want an investigation into the text leaks ..??

    What the fck is going on here ???

  49. ”
    Enough Alreadysays:
    Wednesday, June 14, 2023 at 9:11 am
    Ven @ Wednesday, June 14, 2023 at 8:58 am:
    =========

    Ven! Please tell me you’re not going down the Russian misinformation rabbit hole!

    1991 Ukrainian Independence:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum

    1994 Budapest Memorandum:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum

    Please please please, Ven , do not fall for Russian lies about Ukraine!!
    ”

    Ukraine’s Zelensky admits he sabotaged Minsk peace deal with Russia, West blocked negotiations

    Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelensky admitted to the newspaper Der Spiegel that he refused to implement the 2015 Minsk II peace deal with Russia. Germany and France said Kiev used the agreement to “buy time” to prepare for war.

    https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2023/02/10/ukraine-zelensky-minsk-peace-russia/

  50. Ven, the Minsk ‘deal’ was an exercise in Russia having illegally taken Crimea, arming separatist terrorists in Donbas, and blackmailing Hollande from France and Merkel from Germany with Russian energy supplies to Europe, into twisting Poroshenko’s arm into accepting adverse ‘facts on the ground’ as a fait accompli. The Minsk ‘deal’ itself did nothing more than offer a fig leaf to Putin to cover the rank illegality and violence of his own gross violation of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum (which I strongly urge you follow my link above to rad about).

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