Miscellany: by-elections left and right (open thread)

As the major parties move forward with candidate selection for Fadden, state by-elections now loom in Victoria and Western Australia.

There are now three by-elections in the pipeline, one federal and two state:

• The Gold Coast Bulletin reports a Liberal National Party preselection vote for the July 25 Fadden by-election this weekend has attracted five candidates: the reputed front-runner, Cameron Caldwell; two widely noted rivals with strong support in Dinesh Palipana and Fran Ward; and apparent dark horses in Owen Caterer, who boasts “a long career in wealth management” including a decade working in China, and Craig Hobart. Labor is now committed to fielding a candidate, after earlier reports that Anthony Albanese would prefer to forfeit, with David Crowe of the Age/Herald reporting that the candidate from 2022, Letitia Del Fabbro, was “seen as the leading contender”.

• In Victoria, Liberal MP Ryan Smith announced his resignation on Wednesday, initiating a by-election in his eastern suburbs seat of Warrandyte, which he retained at the November election by 4.2% with a slight favourable swing. This has yielded the stimulating possibility of a return to politics for Tim Smith, who tested over double the legal blood alcohol limit in 2021 after crashing his car into the side of a house in Hawthorn, and abandoned his seat of Kew at the election. Smith had won favour with conservatives for the vehemence of his attacks on Daniel Andrews during the Melbourne lockdowns, and has presumably continued to do so as a regular on Sky News. His comments professing an interest in the seat were implicitly critical of party leader John Pesutto, who says he would “very much like to see a woman in amongst the candidates”. Between reports in The Age and The Guardian, five such are mentioned: Caroline Inge, one of the party’s federal vice-presidents and a “former staffer and political ally” of Smith; Sarah Overton, a director at KPMG; Michelle Kleinert, a Manningham councillor; Nicole Werner, a former Pentecostal pastor who ran at the election in Box Hill; and Ranjana Srivastava, an oncologist who was recently fortunate to be overlooked for the Aston preselection. The Guardian reports the by-election is “expected to be held between 5 August and 30 September”.

The West Australian reports three Labor preselection candidates have emerged as potential successors to Mark McGowan in his surely unloseable southern Perth seat of Rockingham. These are Matt Dixon, who was the party’s state secretary in 2018 and 2019, and has more recently been a staffer to Stephen Dawson, Emergency Services Minister and a prominent figure in the AMWU sub-faction of the Left; Clem Chan, state president of the United Professional Firefighters Union; and Magenta Marshall, a locally based party official. However, there is said to be concern that Dixon’s candidacy would be “a distraction” due to the circumstances of his departure as state secretary, which followed controversy over the use of funds raised by state parliamentarians on the 2019 federal campaign, and Marshall is quoted saying she is “not sure it’s my time”. Electoral commissioner Robert Kennedy tells The West Australian the by-election is likely to be in late June or July.

Also of note:

• Maria Kovacic, who stood aside as the party’s state president to contest the preselection, won a Liberal Party ballot on the weekend to fill the late Jim Molan’s New South Wales Senate vacancy. Kovacic prevailed in the final round over Andrew Constance, former state government minister and unsuccessful candidate for Gilmore at last year’s election, by 287 votes to 243. Kovacic’s win means a seat formerly held by a factional conservative now goes to a moderate. Constance, who is also a moderate, gained some support from conservatives by promising to abandon the seat at the next federal election for another run in Gilmore, which is still considered likely to do. Anthony Galloway of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the seat would likely have stayed with the right if Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW, had nominated, but in the event the only right nominee was Jess Collins, who narrowly failed to make the final round. Earlier exclusions were Space Industry Association chief executive James Brown, former Lindsay MP Fiona Scott and Shepherd Centre executive David Brady.

• An analysis by former Labor Senator John Black of Australian Development Strategies in the Financial Review identifies Labor’s targets to regain lost primary votes as working families on $100,000 to $150,000 a year, “digitally disrupted families” on $50,000 to $100,000, parents with children at state schools, and Christians who have supported Labor only under the leadership of Kevin Rudd; and the Coalition’s as white migrants, defectors in the teal seats, professional women on more than $150,000 a year, and professionals and the 35-to-50 age cohort.

Rhianna Down of The Australian reports Anthony Albanese told colleagues on Tuesday that Labor’s target Liberal-held seats for the next election are Canning, Moore, Bass, Braddon, Banks, Menzies and Sturt, though presumably hopes for the first two have taken a knock with Mark McGowan’s resignation.

Charlotte Varcoe of Border Watch reports Liberal MP Tony Pasin won a preselection ballot for his South Australian seat of Barker with 284 votes against 58 for Katherine McBride, who owns grazing property with husband Nick McBride, the state member for MacKillop.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

744 comments on “Miscellany: by-elections left and right (open thread)”

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  1. All the conservatives have left is labels. Schoolchild insults hurled with wanton abandon. Not a single plan to be seen amongst them to help Australians.

    And they wonder why they’re getting crushed again and again. Their solution? Amp up the screeching.

  2. Having met Sarah H-Y, all I can say is that she is shorter than she looks on TV.

    No comment on her housing choice

  3. Catprog: “housing”

    The greens need to stop blocking social housing stat. People in need are suffering because of their political games.

  4. ‘A level 3 biohazard running rampant through the community’. Yep, can totally see a 13yo writing about that to the Prime Minister. Not.

  5. Rex Douglas
    They’re moving out and living in the car with bubs now because the rent is too high.

    I bet they eat dog food too.

    I do not intend to be insensitive to the plight of tenants. I rented for nearly two decades (including being gouged in inner Sydney!) before buying a house. But this sort of hysteria from Rex is not helpful.

    Freeze, then cap.

    Like it or not Australia is a capitalist state and a market economy. Under Labor Australia will remain so. If that makes the Albanese government a right-wing government in your view, then perhaps you are actually a communist.

  6. Laughtong

    Thank for that link on the public housing mentioned by C@t. That explains the situation. I imagined C@t was talking about a more recent incident, obviously not.

  7. shogun: “perhaps you are actually a communist.”

    No, he’s a capitalist first, and a propagandist second. His issue is the wrong capitalists are in charge, so his raison d’etre is to undermine them until the right guys are in charge. Which is why Rex NEVER criticizes the LNP for the things he criticizes the ALP for, no matter who is in government.

  8. Any reasonable person can see there is market failure in our housing market – which is exactly the situation in which the government should intervene and correct for the market failure.

    Ironic to read Labor stooges/ hacks parroting a Friedmanite free market line in response.

  9. LVT: “Any reasonable person can see there is market failure in our housing market ”

    You be sure to list all of the legislation that the LNP put forward to resolve this clearly evident problem over the past 10 years then. Be sure to include your commentary on said legislation.

    LVT: ” stooges/ hacks”

    Pot. Kettle. Black.

  10. Sohar
    When my 13 year old child wrote to @AlboMP
    asking him why he was letting a level 3 biohazard run rampant through the community-

    A LEVEL 3 BIOHAZARD??!! What was the biohazard? Yellow fever? West Nile virus? Tuberculosis?

    Was this 13 year old an epidemiologist? A medical microbiologist?

    Bullshit.

  11. Freeze, then cap.

    Oh look! A 3 word slogan! Teh Greens have learnt well at the feet of the Master, Tony Abbott. 😐

  12. It is just absurd to expect a Prime Minister to reply personally to every person who writes them a letter. There must be hundreds or thousands a day.

    It is not their job and they would be misallocating their time if they tried to do it.

    This was obviously just a stuff up in the PM’S office and I would think they have probably already been in touch to make amends.

    Using the incident to promote the “horrible Albo” meme is actually an abuse of the child’s letter for political purposes.

  13. Shogun: “Was this 13 year old an epidemiologist?”

    ajm: “an abuse of the child’s letter ”

    They think nothing of using their children as cannon-fodder in their wars. No different to the trumpers.

  14. Well, speaking personally, I heard the Greens spokesperson refer to rent freezes overseas in positive terms and I wanted to check out what that experience had been.

    A bit different to the way he depicted it – and basically, the Scottish government is admitting it hasn’t worked either (or they would have extended the cap).

    And that’s after six months, not two years.

    I’m sure there are innovative ways of approaching the present problem. I recognise any solution will have downsides for someone. But the freeze doesn’t seem to have worked in the way it was intended.

    Furthermore, this is a freeze in an area (the states) where the Federal government doesn’t have jurisdiction, which makes it even more problematic.

  15. Nope Pi – the Liberals did nothing on social housing. Any reasonable person can acknowledge that.

    Labor’s “solution” is tokenistic – hence the Green’s resistance.

    See the difference? I can actually acknowledge reality – peeps like u cannot.

  16. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, June 4, 2023 at 10:23 am
    I remember the Glebe slums well. And the Chippendale slums, and the Golden Grove slums and the Redfern slums and the Pyrmont slums and the Surry Hills slums and the Strawberry Hills slums …
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    98.6 remembers :
    I too remember the Glebe slums but perhaps for a different reason than C@t. How could I forget as a 16 year old with my mate during a two week holiday in Sydney being taken to the narrow streets of Glebe one night to see what was no doubt one of its tourist drawcards.
    Our tour guide parked his car several streets away and warned us to keep close as we walked in wonderment with the hundreds of other male tourists eyeing off the lovely lady residents sitting at their windows.
    Suddenly a voice shouted out ‘cops’ and within a minute the streets were empty as we quickly made our way back to our car.
    Yes, I remember the Glebe slums.

  17. Shogun @ #665 Sunday, June 4th, 2023 – 6:39 pm

    Sohar
    When my 13 year old child wrote to @AlboMP
    asking him why he was letting a level 3 biohazard run rampant through the community-

    A LEVEL 3 BIOHAZARD??!! What was the biohazard? Yellow fever? West Nile virus? Tuberculosis?

    Was this 13 year old an epidemiologist? A medical microbiologist?

    Bullshit.

    Without any more context than what was provided by the carping censorious Twitterer, I can only conclude that it refers to the cause du jour of Fracking and the chemicals which may be in the air in communities in the area around gas extraction sites, which may be volatiles. No ppm were given, simply an emotive strapline that ‘it is running rampant through the community’. I can only add that I feel sorry for the 13yo. It must be frightened half to death by its parents.

  18. LVT: “the Liberals did nothing on social housing. Any reasonable person can acknowledge that.”

    And yet YOU voted for them repeatedly, and never even once publicly criticized them. Which demonstrates how much you care about the subject.

    LVT: “Labor’s “solution” is tokenistic”

    Tell that to the people who get nothing as a result of the greens blocking the legislation.

    LVT: “peeps like u”

    Pot. Kettle. Black.

  19. I thought that Chandler-Mather was quite impressive on “Insiders” this morning – his youthful exuberance evidencing that his heart’s in the right place. That said, a moratorium on rent increases is primarily a state/territory matter.

    Moreover, rumour has it that a number of Greens enjoy the tax benefits of negative gearing, a possible solution for which is to limit the number of properties that attract said benefit. And while I can’t recall who it was, a Labor MHR on Q&A looked more than a little embarrassed after it was revealed that she has seven…

  20. laughtong @ #668 Sunday, June 4th, 2023 – 6:41 pm

    C@tmomma @ #665 Sunday, June 4th, 2023 – 6:38 pm

    Ballantyne @ #660 Sunday, June 4th, 2023 – 6:34 pm

    Laughtong

    Thank for that link on the public housing mentioned by C@t. That explains the situation. I imagined C@t was talking about a more recent incident, obviously not.

    I have a good memory. 😉

    I was living in the ACT at that time and remembered that story

    Didn’t she use as her excuse for wanting to stay that she supported Public Housing? 😆

  21. 30,000 houses over 5 years – thats 1800 houses in NSW per year (assuming the dodgy $100k per unit construction cost is actually achievable). There should be about 200,000 houses built in NSW per year – there’s only about half of that built at the moment. But you keep parroting the lines Pi.

    Hope it makes u feel better.

  22. The greens think they are very good at allocating money for things, which is strange, given 80% of Australians don’t want them anywhere near a chequebook.

    LVT:”30,000 houses over 5 years –”

    Zero because of the greens.

    LVT: “Hope it makes u feel better.”

    It doesn’t make me feel better at all knowing that people suffer because the greens want to play politics with their suffering.

  23. C@

    The old Green ploy of putting up an impossible ask and then emoting all over the place when the majors won’t support it.

    They do it all the time – put up a motion in the Senate with a nice motherhood statement at the beginning and tagging on something absurd at the end.

    Then when it gets voted down, they accuse Labor of voting against whatever the motherhood statement was.

  24. The greens basic policy response to everything is essentially free groceries for a year.
    They are hopeless and is why their vote will never get beyond 10%.

  25. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, June 4, 2023 at 2:30 pm
    Oh yes the RBA conspiracy theorists – what next Hurley is going to do a Kerr?
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    Trust nobody.

  26. Gees, a bit of biff coming for the Greens on here tonight.

    No offence taken! (Of course I’m a greens/Labor stooge, so I have a foot in both camps. My vote ends up with Labor, via the Greens, but I do wish Labor would be greener, and redder!)

  27. PwC.. instead of being personal & sincere in rectifying the situation they go out and hire PR spin doctors.

    This is only going to get worse… A courage from late Ad company was approached years ago to advise / do Ad campaign to rectify wrong doing.. the advice was save tour money you will only make it worse..

    SMH
    A group of partners at PwC Australia have hired veteran crisis communications manager Sue Cato to advise them ahead of a hearing on Wednesday when senators will again demand the names of staff who received leaked government information to help clients minimise their tax.

    It is highly unusual for the partners at a firm to employ their own counsel when the company has already engaged its own crisis team, including former Labor senator and powerbroker Stephen Conroy, who is now chairman of TG Public Affairs.

    Stephen Conroy, didn’t he stuff Labor & the NBN at the same time?

  28. Mayor slams ‘overdevelopment’ as state approves housing on former Boronia school site

    Planning Minister Sonya Kilkenny approved plans for the eight-hectare former Boronia Heights school site to be transformed into a residential area with 145 homes.

    “Certainly, the kind of density that they’re proposing is just not appropriate for that area,” she said. “We desperately need more social and affordable housing, but it’s important for the residents of these future developments that they are located near services and public transport and not just dumped on vacant government sites.”

    Last year, Knox Council rejected a proposed development for the old school site, which is managed by the planning minister, after it was rezoned in 2017. The council raised concerns about bushfire risk, a lack of information about social and affordable housing, the protection of habitat zones and vegetation, and management of increased stormwater run-off.

    Timmers-Leitch said higher-density housing should instead be built in Boronia’s key activity centres, in line with the Plan Melbourne initiative to build 1 million homes in Melbourne’s middle-ring suburbs.

    Another NIMBY thanks.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/mayor-slams-overdevelopment-as-state-approves-housing-on-former-boronia-school-site-20230530-p5dcjh.html

  29. Politicians are horribly conflicted on housing sadly. A significant portion are heavily invested in the property market. That includes Labor, Green and LNP. It is only natural, I guess, when the tax advantages of property are so generous, and its marketing and hyping exists through our mainstream media who are heavily invested in its growth given their companies.

    Albanese was right when he made his ministers sell out of shares etc. Could he have done it with housing? Doubt it. The power of property I guess?

  30. wranslide @ #687 Sunday, June 4th, 2023 – 7:04 pm

    Politicians are horribly conflicted on housing sadly. A significant portion are heavily invested in the property market. That includes Labor, Green and LNP. It is only natural, I guess, when the tax advantages of property are so generous, and its marketing and hyping exists through our mainstream media who are heavily invested in its growth given their companies.

    Albanese was right when he made his ministers sell out of shares etc. Could he have done it with housing? Doubt it. The power of property I guess?

    It’s only the Greens who seriously want to change the rules though it seems.

    Same re fossil fuels.

  31. ItzaDream @ #637 Sunday, June 4th, 2023 – 5:42 pm

    If not yet posted, the best breakdown on The Voice I’ve come across –

    What is the Indigenous Voice to Parliament? Here’s how it would work and who’s for and against it

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-15/what-is-the-indigenous-voice-to-parliament-referendum-australia/102317242

    As many as 250 Indigenous delegates met at Uluru and, after days of discussions, reached a consensus on a 440-word statement, now known at the Uluru Statement from the Heart.

    It has three key objectives:

    1.Voice to Parliament
    2.Treaty
    3.Truth-telling

    …snip…

    etc ….

    Thank you. I hadn’t seen this.

  32. The Liberals did nothing. Labor’s policy is tokenism and will achieve nothing, and the Greens policy is an impossibility.

  33. wonder if wa liberals will re select lynda renyolds therenyalds the corear liberal hack her term is up and she is not from the clan clan member slade brockman will most likely get top spot he has done nothing in his 6 years but worked for cormann and is close to collier and goiran and if dutton wants female voters it might be helpful

  34. Although I do think the Greens should pass the legislation on the basis that a molehill is bigger than nothing.

  35. With the release of Operation Keppel by ICAC due before June 30 no doubt every Bludger will be chafing at the bit to be among the first to post their reaction.
    We all know what the outcome will be for Daryl Maguire but the piece de resistance will surely be, at least for me, what ICAC will find against Maguire’s Secret Lover, Gladys.
    I might put the Taittinger in the fridge now.

  36. nath:

    Sunday, June 4, 2023 at 7:11 pm

    [‘The Liberals did nothing. Labor’s policy is tokenism and will achieve nothing, and the Greens policy is an impossibility.’]

    Yep! Once you’re on the gravy chain, it’s hard to steer a clear course. I think, though, that we are more blessed than most. Pepsy.

  37. The bulk of the housing crisis can be attributed to negative gearing and the lack of action by councils with a NIMBY approach.

    Our council had a proposal to build 100’s and 100’s of houses on an old golf course site . Request Denied. It still sits vacant after 10 yrs

    Previous council listed a 2030 plan that would use a lot of land close to amenities,trouble was it has old buildings on them which now the new council is trying to heritage list them.
    Taking control of over 60 mil dollars worth of property.
    Land that could house over 1000 homes .

    Council were not having that thanks.
    Then a week after announcing that she went on tv news saying we need more land for housing ……..it was gob smaking.

    We’re one the houses so far it has cost 100k trying to fight the listing.

  38. The Victorian proposal to tax airbnbs is probably the most likely one to free up housing.

    We need to see houses switching back from short term to long term rentals.

  39. A accountant friend back in the 90’s told me how to accumulate wealth through housing,
    He had taken out a line of credit 60k bought 2 houses rent to line of credit along with wages ,as soon as credit pay off bought another etc etc at time he told me he over 50 properties,as was buying a new every week.

    Lost touch with him but I’d hate to think how many he has now

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