The West Australian has results from a poll it commissioned from Utting Research on Wednesday, which is the first voting intention poll from the state since the March 2021 election. It inevitably finds Labor coming down from its 69.7-30.3 win on two-party preferred at the election, but not by so much as to offer it serious discouragement, with a government now led by Roger Cook holding a lead of 61-39. The primary votes are Labor 52% (59.9% at the election), Liberal 28% (21.3%), Nationals 5% (4.0%) and Greens 8% (6.9%).
Leadership ratings were gauged for Roger Cook, Mark McGowan and Liberal leader Libby Mettam – the formal mantle of Opposition Leader in fact belongs to Nationals leader Shane Love, whose party holds four lower house seats to the Liberals’ two, although there have been negotiations to transfer the role to Mettam before the next election is held. Cook holds an approval rating of 42% and a disapproval rating of 26%, while Mettam registers 31% approval and 33% disapproval, with McGowan towering above both at 68% and 19%. Cook leads Mettam as preferred premier by 50-24. The poll had a sample of 800, and I assume was conducted by automated phone polling.
What follows is a wrap-up of electorally relevant state political news from the last few months. So far as the Rockingham by-election is concerned, I know of nothing to add from the previous post.
• Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reported in March that Bill Johnston, whose formidable portfolio load encompasses mines, energy, industrial relations and corrective services, was considered likely to retire at the next election by “multiple sources within the WA Labor Party”. That would create a vacancy in his eastern suburbs seat of Cannington, which is safe for Labor at the worst of times and presently held on a margin of 30.4%.
• Joe Spagnolo of The Sunday Times reports that former Liberal leader and Dawesville MP Zak Kirkup says his favoured seat for a political comeback would be Churchlands, where he presently resides, but which has been associated with the ambitions of Perth Lord Mayor Basil Zempilas. However, Kirkup also allows that South Perth would “sit quite well”, with Spagnolo’s sources saying Zempilas would be favoured in a preselection contest.
• Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reported in April that David Honey “appears certain” to face a preselection challenge in Cottesloe, with “a growing belief that he would be dumped”. Property Council executive director Sandra Brewer, who sought preselection to succeed Colin Barnett in the seat in 2018, was rated a possible starter.
• Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reports Liberal MLC Nick Goiran, whose factional activities as a figurehead of “the Clan” have been under intense scrutiny, remains determined to run again at the 2025 election.
Heard an interview with Zempilas yesterday.
He said he loves being Lord Mayor and remains committed to the job.
And will run again later this year.
As anybody who has watched his career knows (I remember him as a wannabe journalist who couldn’t get a job at The West Australian in the 1990s), he loves attention.
That was long before Stokes took control of the paper.
Funny that he ended up at Channel Seven and by all accounts is a Stokes favourite
Being an MP in opposition is not his style.
But as they say, never say never.
The notion that federal labor won in wa just cuz of McGowan is hugely overstated; they won because the people of wa believed labor as a party was doing a good job, both state-level and federally.
Labor can easily retain seats such as Tangney, and might even pick up Moore or Canning by 2025
Based on these numbers, you can understand why no polls were taken between March 2021 and now.
Why waste time and money when everyone knows what the results would be.
If it wasn’t for McGowan’s retirement I doubt this poll would have taken place.
Can wa labor win the 2025 election
So if this translated to a uniform 8.7% swing to the Liberals and Nationals the Liberals would pick up only 4 previously very safe seats – Churchlands, Carine, Nedlands and Bateman and the Nationals would pick up 1 – Warren-Blackwood. Would still leave a very lopsided parliament of ALP – 48, LIB – 6, NAT – 5. McGowan retiring certainly gives the Libs the opportunity to makeup some more lost ground but doesn’t assure they will.
I reckon the Liberals would be keen to give Basil Zempilas as safe a seat as possible if he is intending to run for Parliament – they need people who are known to the public to try and garner some attention and recognition.
A quote from The West Australian today:
“ Cook will comfort himself with the state of the Liberal Party, which is making the right sounds about being on the road to reform but has yet to test that claim through a preselection process.
“Another bevy of candidates picked by the powerbrokers and disconnected from the social values of mainstream West Australians risks killing any momentum”
And that sums it up. More of the same from Goiran, Collier, Goodenough and their ilk will be easy prey for Labor.
Michael says:
Saturday, June 3, 2023 at 8:14 pm
Can wa labor win the 2025 election
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Can wa labor lose the 2025 election
98.6says:
Saturday, June 3, 2023 at 9:58 pm
Michael says:
Saturday, June 3, 2023 at 8:14 pm
Can wa labor win the 2025 election
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Can wa labor lose the 2025 election
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If the WA Libs/Nats can somehow get QLDs Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk to join their party they will be back in power in 2025.
98.6: “If the WA Libs/Nats can somehow get QLDs Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk to join their party they will be back in power in 2025.”
If the WA Libs/Nats can somehow get QLDs Campbell Newman to run the WA ALP, they will be back in power in 2025.
Pisays:
Saturday, June 3, 2023 at 11:46 pm
98.6: “If the WA Libs/Nats can somehow get QLDs Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk to join their party they will be back in power in 2025.”
If the WA Libs/Nats can somehow get QLDs Campbell Newman to run the WA ALP, they will be back in power in 2025.
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It must be getting late but after reading it a few times I finally got it.
Talk about hypotheticals !
When the going gets tough for the Liberals, they think picking Perths lord mayor will save them? He is no Campbell Newman. Remember Newman was renowned for his response to the 2011 floods and QLD Labor was UNPOPULAR and was in power for all but 2 years since 1989, totally different circumstances.
Zak Kirkup returning would also be a mistake, he’d be better running for senate federally since he has the right policies on environmental issues, and could help the federal party get on the right track.
Kirkup could also run in Curtin if he actually lives in Churchlands now. The Libs will only win back Curtin if they run a moderate against Chaney.
If Basil Zempilas is the answer, I’d love to know what the question is.
The libs right across the country don’t need B grade celebrities, they need a compete and utter clean out and rebuild. We’re talking hit rock bottom and start from there. They’re not there yet, they still think it is the electorate that is wrong – ie, denial.
Look at what happened to John Pesutto in bendigo a coupe of weeks ago. The poor fellow re-’brands’ himself a moderate and still gets rejected by his own party.
They have to nuke the existing membership and start again!
> Saturday, June 3, 2023 at 8:07 pm
>Based on these numbers, you can understand why no polls were taken between March 2021 and now.
I wonder if polls were taken but discared for being unreliable.
“Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reports …”
You don’t need a Zimmerman to know which way the wind blows.
if bill johnston retires semingly lost factional support will his wife long serving upper house mp kate doust join himso langyer knocked back the clans atempts to give him a state seat nowthere triying with perth lord mayor maybi if collier and goiran retired they could have a chance but after two defeats the power brockers are going no where at least there felow leader cormann realized it was over and left for oecd
unlike the other clan leaders corman was not socialy conservative more interested in traditional values colliers links to goiran is not suprising wasnt he friends with margarit court so if johnstong goes so will most likely doust and quirk so the old socialy conservative shoppies alind with that former labor senater will be out of parliament
Johnston and Doust are thankfully almost the last of the old style SDA MPs in WA. The SDA scrapped its opposition to gay rights a few years back and were until recently led inWA by Peter O’Keefe (now appointed to the FWC) who was fairly liberal on social issues.
We can blame the old WA SDA for delivering us under whelming MPs state and federal…Mark Bishop etc
Zempilas as a senior state liberal would be a disaster, the guy is viewed as a cringworthy attention seeker. I was at a concert recently and a recording of multiple local leaders giving a welcome was shown before the show, whilst all other leaders were met with disinterest as soon as basils face popped up a huge groan went around the crowd.
do we think doust and johnston will retire ifperth lord mayor is unpopular whiy dont labor run a candadate
Aaron
Not sure how familiar you are with WA Local Government.
While individual candidates might (and most likely nearly always do) have political affiliations, they don’t run under a party banner.
In theory the mayors and councillors are all independents though, as I say, like minded people might get together to push something.
Having seen what goes in NSW and Victoria where there are battles for endorsement and faction fighting for places on council (and associated corruption with fundraising etc) I think I prefer things the way they are here.
wonder if johnston retires as reported weather his wife kate doust and margarit quirk robberts will also go
I’d have to wonder whether Zempilas’s generally mixed view in the community would make Churchlands more open to an Independent sneaking in instead.
Yeah, he’s high profile (way above Kirkup), but not always for the right reasons.
It’s a seat with a long history of an Independent with Liz Constable after all.
Teal inclined types should be lining up around the block looking to pick up former safe lib seats currently held by labor.
“Teal inclined types should be lining up around the block looking to pick up former safe lib seats currently held by labor.”
The liberals would have to be stupid enough to run a happy clapper/goiran/goodenough type candidate to lose nedlands/carine/churchlands etc Just run a competent, socially progressive business leader and theyre home in those seats