Before we proceed to a brief summary of electorally relevant current events in federal politics, please note the other quality content that it’s pushing down the order: a guest post from Adrian Beaumont on the threat of US debt default and other international events, a post on a Tasmanian poll with a summary of recent events in that state, and a detailed analysis of results from last year’s federal election in thirteen seats in inner Melbourne.
• The Fadden by-election has been set for July 25, with nominations to close on June 23. As was covered in the previous post, a Liberal National Party preselection that has attracted five nominees will be conducted today. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that Anthony Albanese would rather Labor forfeit the by-election for a seat the LNP holds on a 10.6% margin, but must reckon with a local branch “agitating to run a candidate”.
• The New South Wales Liberal Party will hold its preselection this weekend to fill the Senate vacancy resulting from the death of Jim Molan in January. The field have candidates has narrowed to three: former state Transport Minister Andrew Constance, former state party president Maria Kovacic and Space Industry Association chief executive James Brown. The Sydney Morning Herald reports the latter has a long list of high-profile backers including John Howard, Julie Bishop and Dave Sharma.
• The Byron Shire Echo reports comedian Mandy Nolan will again run as the Greens candidate for the Byron Bay and Tweed Heads region seat of Richmond at the next federal election. Nolan added 5.0% to the party’s primary vote share last May to outpoll the Nationals, although preferences from right-wing minor parties pushed the Nationals candidate ahead of her at the final exclusion.
Enough Already says:
Friday, May 26, 2023 at 1:00 pm
Ven @ Friday, May 26, 2023 at 12:54 pm:
“EA
Imagine this scenario
Musk just got permission for brain implants in humans.
Let us say DeSantis becomes POTUS. He wants brain implants in US people to control them. I shudder at that scenario.”
============
Ven, I was mainly just suggesting we’ll all urgently want to book flights departing Planet Earth, but I agree with the concern you’re raising. We (especially Americans here, in this case) need to be very careful what they sleepwalk into.
———————-
I was listening to a 2hr podcast on Neuralink by a scientist that works there only a fortnight ago. Most of the work was using brain implants for the purposes of stimulating muscle movement for paraplegics and seeking ways to divert messages around permanently impaired spinal injury sites rather than anything nefarious.
Here we go:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/25/tesla-elon-musk-ford-jim-farley-ev-twitter-spaces-talk.html
The live stream (basically audio) of the conjoint online meeting between Farley and Musk channelled from Twitter by Tesla fan boy Farzad Mesbahi (great name!), ex Tesla employee. (Skip to 7:00 to skip the intro)
https://www.youtube.com/live/rsrs4a212g0?feature=share
”
Pisays:
Friday, May 26, 2023 at 1:13 pm
Ven: “Imagine this scenario: Musk just got permission for brain implants in humans. Let us say DeSantis becomes POTUS. He wants brain implants in US people to control them. I shudder at that scenario.”
That’s cray cray dawg. Like seriously.
Imagine this scenario; Quadriplegic’s gaining the use of their limbs. That’s the primary use-case for that technology. Are you going to be the one to say to the person trapped in their body that they are not permitted to access that technology because you hate Musk so much?
”
It starts like that. Remember the people all over the world having fears about AI. It is not me that is saying about their fears regarding AI. People who are much more intelligent than me who are concerned all over the world. I may not be alive when a chip in a human’s brain to control that person becomes a reality. But this is a first step and Politicians all over the world want to control their population one way or another. After seeing politicians like Trump, DeSantis, BOJO, Xi, Putin, Morrison and MAGAs etc. I don’t have much confidence about these kind of things will be used only for good. Maybe I am paranoid. But this may be effect of listening to Trump and DeSantis crazy talk.
Enough Already @ #119 Friday, May 26th, 2023 – 12:29 pm
Yep, amazing how those two have failed to mention the ‘catastrophic consequences’ President Biden has said that Russia will face if it does eventuate that Putin pushed the big red button. It’s almost as if some people would be happy for the Western governments who are supporting Ukraine now to lose the war due to, apparently something Centre Left Western leaders and their governments have said or done that motivated Putin to do the unthinkable. Then they could get all sanctimonious about ‘Centre Left governments that are actually Centre Right’, or some similar malarkey. 🙄
Some remarkably candid comments from Prighozin regarding the capabilities of the Ukrainian armed forces, acknowledging that they are a motivated, well-equipped and rapidly growing force despite the Kremlin’s goal to demilitarise. They exhibit great ability to operate all weapons platforms be they Soviet or NATO standard and they have the tenacity the Soviets demonstrated in turning around their foe in the Great Patriotic War (WWII to us!). Does he have a food taster?
frednk @ Friday, May 26, 2023 at 1:44 pm
“If Putin explodes a nuclear bomb he will die. All his efforts to date are to stay on power.”
==========
frednk, I completely agree with this assessment.
Iirc, Ford was the pride of Biden’s big EV plan , maybe GM too can’t recall, bit certainly Ford got his focus while he notably omitted Tesla (non-unionised).
No small irony that Ford’s EV sustainability is now locked in with Tesla.
I’m kind of amazed at the stuff Prighozin gets to say and still live; I don’t expect he attend briefings at the Kremlin in person very often these days, or goes anywhere without being surrounded with troops loyal to himself.
I agree with the argument Putin won’t use WMDs UNLESS backed into such a corner he thinks he’s dead anyway (and if backed into that much of a corner, you’d hope someone refuses the order, but I wouldn’t rely on that). Mutually assured destruction is no way to live high on the hog as dictator of one of the biggest countries in the world.
I wish that argument had occurred to the people insisting that Saddam totally still had WMDs.
Ven: “It starts like that. ”
Slippery slope fallacy.
“No small irony that Ford’s EV sustainability is now locked in with Tesla.”
Nah, it’s just a new version of the classic tale of the development of standards.
“No small irony that Ford’s EV sustainability is now locked in with Tesla.”
I’m personally quite relieved to hear that. Tesla took more than ten years to reach its technological lead. Ford and GM will go broke if they take that long to catch up. Better to swallow their pride, pay Tesla, and put out a competitive product.
I am not an Elon Musk fan, but as an engineer I have to acknowledge that the organisation he put together has world leading expertise.
Socrates @ #160 Friday, May 26th, 2023 – 2:37 pm
The openness and friendliness of the discussion (linked earlier) is incredibly reassuring. It’s worth a listen; run it as background. The call is that Ford is the first of many. I have to declare I’m a huge Musk fan re his technology. His personal life and political drift is a different matter. I’ve been driving a Tesla since 2019, depend on Starlink, have two Tesla powerwall batteries in my own drift toward off grid, would have Tesla roof tiles if I could (have ground mounted solar), would get an Optimus if ($) and when (ever), and if I needed to connect my spinal cord to my brain …. The guy is some boundary pusher.
Its funny how often when two teenage firebugs decide to burn down a building, that they randomly pick one that is heritage listed and subject to a development application.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-26/evacuated-residents-after-surry-hills-fire-wait-to-return-home/102395056
Reminds me of Korn Corporation and the fire in central Ipswich many years ago.
Itza: ” The guy is some boundary pusher.”
Try to keep your eyes on the prize here peoples. Space-rockets.
Cuz I want my space-rocket goddamit.
Australian retail turnover was unchanged (0.0 per cent) in April 2023, according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). This follows a 0.4 per cent rise in March 2023 and 0.2 per cent rise in February 2023.
Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics, said the slowdown in retail spending seen since the start of the year has continued in April. “Retail turnover has plateaued over the last six months as consumers spent less on discretionary goods in response to cost-of-living pressures and rising interest rates. Spending was again soft in April but was boosted by increased spending on winter clothing in response to cooler and wetter than average weather across the country,” Mr Dorber said.
Clothing, footwear, and personal accessory retailing (+1.9 per cent) and departments stores (+1.5 per cent) were the only retail categories to rise in April.
“I have to declare I’m a huge Musk fan re his technology. His personal life and political drift is a different matter.”
I imagine this might have once been said of Henry Ford.
I had always felt that the Ukraine invasion would take a dramatic turn in summer. June is just around the corner. Fingers crossed.
A few updates from the Mercury about the Liberal Tas Government budget handed down yesterday. Reckless spending by a party that styles itself as economically responsible. Wracking up the highest debt the state has ever seen without any clear plan on how to pay this debt down.
Not a peep out of the MSM opinion writers like there has been on the Victorian budget.
https://archive.md/IDuVd
https://archive.is/7opAB
Mostly Interested @ 1514
Regarding the Tasmania state budget.
This entry in Budget Paper 1 will now be a saving given the Collingwood FC have annouced the closure of their netball franchise.
“Collingwood Magpies Netball team in Tasmania
This initiative will support the agreement from 2023 to 2025 for the Collingwood Magpies Netball team to play Suncorp Super Netball League games in Tasmania. The partnership provides development opportunities through coaching and clinics in the State and promotes Tasmania through the Collingwood Football Club’s marketing channels.”
Speaking to some AFL tragics yesterday at a corporate lunch, the view is that the Tasmanian Government have been taken for a ride by the AFL regarding the establishment of a Tasmanian team. It will be a millstone around the neck of the government for years to come. All the risk is with Tas not the AFL.
Socrates,
I bet those 13 year old kids don’t know that the age of criminal responsibility is 10. They are so fucked.
If it was an arson for hire thing, I’d roll so quickly on the people who hired me.
Pi @ #163 Friday, May 26th, 2023 – 3:00 pm
I’m approaching the ‘I want to go’ phase of my life.
Just for the record, for those of the opposite persuasion ( not you, I know) the SpaceX launch was phenomenal success. It got off the ground.
https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/spacex-rocket-explosion-illustrates-elon-musks-successful-failure-formula-2023-04-20/
I’ve forgotten how many tries – x3 I think – it took to get Falcon 9 going, but he scraped enough buckeroos together for one more try, and only one, before the 4th made it to orbit, and the first NASA contract.
south @ #172 Friday, May 26th, 2023 – 3:32 pm
There were 4 or 5 involved, so the reporting goes. So, the first two, with responsible parents, have been frog-marched into the Police. We await to see what happens with the rest. They might think they can run from the law, but they can’t hide.
Or it may be that the parents of the final 2 or 3 have been at the lawyer’s office today and may turn up later.
https://youtu.be/sxmRNYU2ZVQ
I see that the Sun Cable kerfuffle has been resolved with Mike Cannon-Brooks winning the bidding war against Twiggy Forrest.
The thing I don’t get is why Forrest was keen on scrapping the cable to Singapore part of the project. If he wanted to build a big solar farm in Australia and keep the power here, why not just start another project? It is not like Australia is short of sunny empty land in the outback which is what the Sun Cable is going to use.
ItzaDream says:
Friday, May 26, 2023 at 2:25 pm
Iirc, Ford was the pride of Biden’s big EV plan , maybe GM too can’t recall, bit certainly Ford got his focus while he notably omitted Tesla (non-unionised).
No small irony that Ford’s EV sustainability is now locked in with Tesla.
——————————
Agreed. Ford currently loses about $45k per EV but notwithstanding this, I think it will survive because it’s the first of the legacy automakers to actually produce an EV Ute/pickup. I think this will carry it across the line along with some assistance from the Mach E.
Although it doesn’t have the brand loyalty of Tesla, it does still have a sufficiently strong following to ensure its longevity, if not it’s profitability for some time.
B.S. Fairman @ #176 Friday, May 26th, 2023 – 3:47 pm
He wanted to win the battle between the Alphas? Also, wouldn’t defeating Mike Cannon-Brookes have meant that Forrest would have the largest holding in that space and therefore would be able to capitalise on that success by moving into economies of scale to end up dominating it?
As far as the Sun Cable to Singapore is concerned, he may have wished to offer his own deal to Singapore AFTER Mike Cannon-Brookes was defeated. If he just started another project, MC-B could have undercut him. But MC-B wasn’t defeated. 😀
Representatives of the Russian Volunteer Corps have said that they had once again entered the territory of Russia, and posted the corresponding video with a Russian Postal Service department in the background. Quote: “Well, friends! The Russian Volunteer Corps has again done something impossible. We are back in the Motherland! The evidence is right behind my back. Once again we enter the territory of Russia with battles or quietly. It doesn’t matter anymore.” According to the representatives of the Russian Volunteer Corps, the flame of resistance is burning all over the country. “Wait for us in your town too,” they said.
Cronus @ Friday, May 26, 2023 at 2:10 pm:
“I was listening to a 2hr podcast on Neuralink by a scientist that works there only a fortnight ago. Most of the work was using brain implants for the purposes of stimulating muscle movement for paraplegics and seeking ways to divert messages around permanently impaired spinal injury sites rather than anything nefarious.”
====================
Cronus, that’s an excellent point to raise in any debate over the ethics of such implants. It would be at least as tragic for sufferers of various conditions to be denied treatments out of excessive caution towards new therapies. These ethical judgements are never clear-cut, simple binaries.
based on disantos rating 14 persent so he is going to bring back ban the ban on openly gay solgiers that obama got rid of which would be politicizing the military his poleing is terible most people who would be themain markit for evs would be progresives who believe in climate change yet musk is a right wing person believing in fredom of speech but only if it agrees with him
South,
“I bet those 13 year old kids don’t know that the age of criminal responsibility is 10. They are so fucked.
If it was an arson for hire thing, I’d roll so quickly on the people who hired me.”
Yes exactly. The Ipswich case I mentioned was also lit by a teenage firebug who was definitely a “troubled teen” and too young for adult court then. However (by coincidence I knew the social worker counselor for him) sure enough someone paid him to torch the building concerned.
Holdenhillbilly @ #179 Friday, May 26th, 2023 – 4:12 pm
There’s more to this story about incursions into Russia by the RDK, than meets the eye:
Pictures of RDK celebrating in Belgorod flooded social media. In one, a Russian man named Aleksandr Skachkov stands next to a captured BTR-82A with the flag of the RDK unfurled next to him. On his chest is a patch depicting a white hooded Ku Klux Klansman wielding a gun. According to reporting from Bellingcat, Ukraine arrested Skachkov in 2020 during a raid on a group of people who were translating and selling the Christchurch Shooter’s manifesto.
This is one of the Bellingcat’s reports about the group and its leaders:
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2019/09/04/the-hardcore-russian-neo-nazi-group-that-calls-ukraine-home/
From the independent Russian news outlet ‘Moscow Times’, the largely overlooked plight of ethnic Ukrainian residents and citizens of the Russian Federation in this present (nine year long) war:
“… Kremlin rhetoric delegitimizing Ukrainian statehood and linking Ukrainians with “Nazis” amid the 15-month invasion has made it increasingly risky for anyone in Russia to display a public affiliation with Kyiv, putting unprecedented pressure on Russia’s large Ukrainian diaspora and tearing families apart.
While some ethnic Ukrainians back the Kremlin and tens of thousands of refugees from the fighting have settled in Russia, those opposed to the war face a difficult choice between leaving, blending in or risking a jail sentence for voicing anti-war views…”
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/25/assimilate-or-flee-wartime-pressures-weigh-on-russias-ukrainian-diaspora-a81264
Oh yeah Jimmy Peirson.
Where’s Ratsak?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/05/26/miscellany-fadden-by-election-liberal-and-greens-candidate-selection-open-thread/comment-page-4/#comment-4115101
… well I guess there are open standards and proprietary standards, who has the most chargers out there (market standards, Tesla)?
Technology licensing happens all the time.
At some stage someone will embrace, extend, extinguish …
Dandy Murray @ #185 Friday, May 26th, 2023 – 5:01 pm
He keeps popping up around election time.
Cronus: “Although [Ford]doesn’t have the brand loyalty of Tesla, it does still have a sufficiently strong following to ensure its longevity, if not it’s profitability for some time.”
The truck is a unique product. It might have beaten Tesla to the punch on the VTL market, which has to be a significant one. The thing can power tools, which means it can effectively charge anything. The upper capacity one has 135KWh. If they bring down the price of batteries, it may turn positive.
This looks like an example of a legacy player recognising that Tesla doesn’t have a product in a market and jumping at it. No one did it before. Seems logical now. That’s the way innovation works. No one is immune to it, not even Musk.
B.S. Fairman says:
Friday, May 26, 2023 at 3:47 pm
I see that the Sun Cable kerfuffle has been resolved with Mike Cannon-Brooks winning the bidding war against Twiggy Forrest.
The thing I don’t get is why Forrest was keen on scrapping the cable to Singapore part of the project. If he wanted to build a big solar farm in Australia and keep the power here, why not just start another project? It is not like Australia is short of sunny empty land in the outback which is what the Sun Cable is going to use.
——————
I don’t know why, perception I guess, but I feel better that Cannon-Brookes won this scrap. I think that Twiggy had ill-intent from the beginning and was undeserving of controlling this asset. I still wish Forrest well for the remainder of his projects.
Enough Already says:
Friday, May 26, 2023 at 4:17 pm
Cronus @ Friday, May 26, 2023 at 2:10 pm:
“I was listening to a 2hr podcast on Neuralink by a scientist that works there only a fortnight ago. Most of the work was using brain implants for the purposes of stimulating muscle movement for paraplegics and seeking ways to divert messages around permanently impaired spinal injury sites rather than anything nefarious.”
====================
Cronus, that’s an excellent point to raise in any debate over the ethics of such implants. It would be at least as tragic for sufferers of various conditions to be denied treatments out of excessive caution towards new therapies. These ethical judgements are never clear-cut, simple binaries.
————————————————————-
Enough Already
Agreed. I’m as worried as the next person about Musk’s personality but I actually think, from what I’ve read and heard, that Musk has less direct input into Neuralink than Tesla, SpaceX rockets and Starlink or even his robotics. Perhaps it’s because it’s such a specialised area, lots of neuroscientists etc.
Cronus: ” I feel better that Cannon-Brookes won this scrap.”
Abso-fkn-lutely. Forrest is an industrialist. That facility is designed to solve a problem; Powering millions of people. Forrest wants it to so he can do more of what he’s doing on the cheap. He will benefit from the economies of scale like everyone else will. If Forrest was in charge, the only thing that would benefit would be his company. I don’t think he’s a bad guy. The public will be better served everywhere with the Cannon-Brookes model.
Pi says:
Friday, May 26, 2023 at 5:20 pm
Cronus: “Although [Ford]doesn’t have the brand loyalty of Tesla, it does still have a sufficiently strong following to ensure its longevity, if not it’s profitability for some time.”
The truck is a unique product. It might have beaten Tesla to the punch on the VTL market, which has to be a significant one. The thing can power tools, which means it can effectively charge anything. The upper capacity one has 135KWh. If they bring down the price of batteries, it may turn positive.
This looks like an example of a legacy player recognising that Tesla doesn’t have a product in a market and jumping at it. No one did it before. Seems logical now. That’s the way innovation works. No one is immune to it, not even Musk.
———————————
+1. Even though I have a boyish dream for a Cybertruck, Ms Cronus is certain to extinguish it :lol:. Notwithstanding its polarising looks, I just think the established Pickup Truck paradigm front-running belongs to Ford and the cost of the Cybertruck will limit its market.
I also suspect the Roadster may lose out to the MG Cyberster, again on cost, but Tesla will likely bust open the market with the new Tesla 2/A (or whatever it will be called) which hopefully will be <$40k.
“… or even his robotics. ”
Maybe he does, ’cause they aren’t that great.
Pi says:
Friday, May 26, 2023 at 5:34 pm
Cronus: ” I feel better that Cannon-Brookes won this scrap.”
Abso-fkn-lutely. Forrest is an industrialist. That facility is designed to solve a problem; Powering millions of people. Forrest wants it to so he can do more of what he’s doing on the cheap. He will benefit from the economies of scale like everyone else will. If Forrest was in charge, the only thing that would benefit would be his company. I don’t think he’s a bad guy. The public will be better served everywhere with the Cannon-Brookes model.
——————————————
Pi
Again +1. Forrest has lost more than a dozen high-profile, key executives over the past two years which tells me there are some critical issues in the company. I suspect and hope Forrest will overcome the challenges but I have a feeling he’s part of the problem. He seems to be a micromanager and reticent to hand over management to the managers.
Stuart Robert is not a symptom but a feature.
He was scandal ridden through out his parliamentary career but mostly landed with a ministry throughout ATM Government. And he never had any shame for what he did and no regrets.
Dandy Murray says:
Friday, May 26, 2023 at 5:47 pm
“… or even his robotics. ”
Maybe he does, ’cause they aren’t that great.
———————————————————
And I’m certainly no expert on robotics but I wonder about their utility. If we want heavy weights moved fast and accurately there are automated factories and forklifts and pickers to achieve this role.
The limited research I’ve done continues to identify understandable psychological misgivings of humans working with humanoids. Even battlefield applications appear best suited to well-balanced wheeled or tracked platforms rather than humanoid soldiers.
Some fun music for Friday evening
https://youtu.be/9ZKLqo9atdk
As per Channel 9, Sydney police in Willoughby shot dead a person in his parent’s drive way apparently after he brandished 2 knives against the police and charged at them. Apparently they had tasers with them, which they did not use.
So It appears the rules of use of the Tasers use is upto to the interpretation of the police.
To keep abreast with what’s going on in the US, I find MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell one of the most informed:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-wojWinevc
Rusty Groupy Stooge @ #131 Friday, May 26th, 2023 – 1:05 pm
I think we already are. Digging stuff up for export is soon going to be our only significant industry. Of course, it doesn’t require a skilled workforce and doesn’t actually employ many people, but it does make a shitload of money for a very few, and surely that’s enough?
I watch the first 15 minutes of 9 news each evening and trust me please, there was not one story bagging the Qld Government or the premier in particular, and not one image or speaking part allocated to the opposition leader in the state of Qld. Has there been a coup? Costello ousted from tv management? Trust me further, there was also a longish, supportive story re the Voice spoilt only at the end by a brief appearance of Dutton denigrating the Voice and its goals.
B.S. Fairman @ #174 Friday, May 26th, 2023 – 3:47 pm
Not a fan of Twiggy, but perhaps he could see that it never made sense to send the power offshore. Why do that when it you could make more money selling the same power here in Australia, and you don’t need to rely on building a cable that is a long way beyond our current capabilities?