Tomorrow is the day of the federal by-election for Aston, for which I have produced an overview page here. As is now customary, this site will features its acclaimed live results updates, along the format you can see on the seat pages for the New South Wales election, and may very well be the only place on the internet where you will find results reported at booth level. I discussed the by-election with Ben Raue at The Tally Room for a podcast on his website that was conducted on Monday, though there was nothing I said in it that wouldn’t hold at this later remove.
The only polling I’m aware of is a report yesterday for Sky News that Labor internal polling pointing to a status quo result with the Liberals retaining a margin of 52-48. However, the poll also found local voters far more favourable to Anthony Albanese (56% approval and 26% disapproval) than Peter Dutton (21% approval and 50% disapproval).
Can we please keep the discussion on this thread focused on the by-election. The latest open thread for general discussion is here (and the New South Wales results can be discussed here.
Albo has nothing to lose at this by-election.
While Dutton will be a dead man walking if he loses !
I’m saying Labor will win it.
98.6 says:
Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 11:23 pm
While I’m not doing a poll it might be interesting to know who bludgers think will win on Saturday.
Different scenario from the state election though.
1 in a hundred years odds. That’s only approx 33 elections. (Not 100)
America’s Cup only contested every 4 years. Australia won after US not beaten for 126 years.
Former member bonking his media advisor. Costing us taxpayers $600,000.
Former member part of the illegal RoboDebt scheme.
Former member’s wife divorced him due to his bonking someone else.
Former member making voters go back to the polling booth not yet 12 months from last election.
Former member kicked his naked lover out of bed in a rage. Domestic violence ?
New Liberal candidate is from the same party as the former member was with.
Only 2.8% swing needed.
Dutton on the nose everywhere.
Dutton is completely bald.
Dutton is sorry he didn’t say SORRY with Kevvie.
Albo has some hair but thin and grey.
Albo riding high in the polls.
Dutton is an a**ehole.
Albo doesn’t need the extra seat.
Dutton will be a dead man walking if he loses.
Albo couldn’t care less if he loses.
Albo will be a legend if he wins.
I’m saying Labor will win, but I don’t care if they don’t.
Tip a narrow ALP win because the mood from Liberals is dark and Dutton has little momentum and for all the angst against inner city elites they run an inner city type but Aston might go back to the Liberals at the next federal election.
Tipping a narrow Lib win which considering the seat and circumstances is indictment enough on Dutton. A win for the ALP would be stupendous, but I wouldn’t set my expectations that high.
Fusion, Lib, Green, ALP and Cooker Anti-Trans Fake-Libertarian (I wonder if she’ll give up after 3 massive failures in the space of a year).
Surely the electorate sees the writing on the wall? Who doesn’t love a winner.
Elect Labor, and join the winning team, and maybe get rid of Dutton.
Vote Lib, maybe Dutton stays, and become irrelevant for another 2 years.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/31/aston-byelection-voters-in-the-former-liberal-stronghold-hold-peter-duttons-future-in-their-hands
I’m guessing with the 1950s comment he’s referencing the bizarre fixation with trans people that we’ve heard about yet again from the Liberal party, along with their attitudes and behaviour towards women. And someone voting in the 80s would be in their late 50s, possibly 60s now, so not a young person who would commonly find the Liberal party’s social attitudes anathema to them.
How much more can the Libs be out of touch with mainstream Australia.
The world has moved on and their social conservatism will bury them!
Very hard to see ALP winning Aston, especially as the close result last time was due to how on the nose the sitting MP was. I expect a 3-4% win for the Libs, but Albo’s popularity could keep the margin under 3%.
It will be the same old story, Labor wins the Election Day votes but the Liberals win overall once prepolls and postals are counted.
Evan says:
Friday, March 31, 2023 at 7:07 am
It will be the same old story, Labor wins the Election Day votes but the Liberals win overall once prepolls and postals are counted.
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If Labor can get ahead to 54/46 , unlikely there will be enough prepolls and postals to over take Labor’s margin
Dutton really isn’t popular down here. Tudge outstayed his welcome but still secured the win, a mere 10 months ago. Very unlikely for Labor to win, the margin was suppressed by Tudge, but gee whiz, I’m hoping the libs lose. Hoping for an Albo win, but fear another pseudo barrister gets up. A complete boil over for the Greens would make me very happy.
I suppose the worse result for Labor would be to win the seat. Then Dutton’s days are numbered and the Government will get more complacent.
Tipping – no change in the margin.
Even if Labor wins this (most unlikely), there is no viable contender to take on Dutton. Maybe Andrew Hastie who is a more nuanced character with similar views which would make it slightly harder for Labor to contend with. The net effect of this election on the final result next federal election is expected to be small.
Hmmmm. At the general election the 2PP was 5% better for the so-called-Libs in Aston than their Aust-wide average. And now the latest Roy Morgan says Labor are generally polling 5% better than at the general election. Interrresting!
The claim that a government has not won a by-election from the opposition for over 100 years is true but it is off a small number of examples in the past 40 years where the government has stood a candidate.
The most recent example was the 2019 Eden-Monaro byelection where the government almost won from the opposition.
Prior to that were the super Saturday byelections in 2018, where the Turnbull government stood candidates in two opposition held seats (Braddon and Longman) and improved the LNP position in both to the extent that they won both in 2019.
In 2014, the LNP stood in Rudd’s old seat of Griffith and almost won. It was probably worth the effort.
In 2008, there was the Gippsland byelection where the Rudd government attempted to capitalise on his honeymoon by running in a fairly safe National party seat but lost badly. This is the one that everyone thinks about when they talk about the government standing byelection in an opposition held seat.
Prior to that we have go back to 1988, where Labor stood in a 3 party contest in Groom that was occurring in the wake of the Joh to Canberra effort and the Labor preferences managed to get the Liberal up over the National. So standing here was not really an effort to win but to further divide the division between the Nats and Libs.
So there has been 6 examples, where only really 5 were attempts to win by the government. In 4 cases the Government candidate got fairly close to winning. Only the Gippsland byelection was really a mistake.
@ Historyin time
While I’m thinking Ashton will be a Liberal hold, albeit a very marginal one, I don’t agree that a Labor victory would be the worst outcome.
Yes, a loss would weaken Duttons leadership, particularly when you look at the historical by- election, but would a loss magnify the belief within the Right that Dutton was too moderate and the push would be on to go even further Right- courtesy of Sky After Dark? If so, who would replace him.? Simon Birmingham would be considered too moderate by the Right.
I believe they’ll stick with Dutton regardless of the outcome, though nothing less than a significant swing away from the Government would be acceptable.
But a loss, however marginal, would be a severe blow.
Really, the outlook for the Liberals is pretty dire most ways.
A win for Labor would elevate Albanese to legendary status.
In the Super Saturday by-elections in 2018, the Turnbull government actually went backwards in Longman and delivered a status quo result in Braddon. They didn’t get a swing to the government in any of the seats run.
However, in the 2019 Eden-Monaro and 2014 Griffith by-elections, the Coalition government almost won these seats from Labor.
At the state level, Labor actually won the seats of Burwood and Benalla (!) off the Coalition, after the respective leaders of the Liberal and National Party resigned after the unexpected change of government resulted in the coronation of the Bracks in 1999.
There were actually 2PP swings against the Coalition in both Braddon and Longman by-elections though in the case of Braddon the swings were tiny. Coalition wins in both seats in 2019 had nothing evident to do with the by-elections and is best explained largely by demographics, though the weak Labor result in Braddon by-election could be (and was by me) taken as a sign that the incumbent was vulnerable.
Haven’t had much time to update it lately but my Braddon preview is here:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/02/aston-by-election-2023.html
Tipping a swing to Labor but not enough to close the gap. Something like 51.5% Liberal 2PP. Will be called late on saturday by A-G, although the PB formula might not be quite ready to call it until monday.
Prior to that were the super Saturday byelections in 2018, where the Turnbull government stood candidates in two opposition held seats (Braddon and Longman) and improved the LNP position in both to the extent that they won both in 2019.
In 2014, the LNP stood in Rudd’s old seat of Griffith and almost won. It was probably worth the effort.
In 2008, there was the Gippsland byelection where the Rudd government attempted to capitalise on his honeymoon by running in a fairly safe National party seat but lost badly. This is the one that everyone thinks about when they talk about the government standing byelection in an opposition held seat.
@B.S. Fairman
As mentioned Longman by-election for the coalition the swing went backwards. But not only that there was a controversy during the bye-election about the LNP candidate claiming he was the recipient of a prestigious army medal which he didn’t. The LNP stood a different candidate at the 2019 election and won. The by-election literally had nothing to do with their victory at the general election.
Your right about the Rudd government getting a swing against it in the Gippsland by-election in 2008. The bad result they received may have played a part in deciding not to run a candidate in the Mayo by-election later that year. I remember hearing claims either not long before the by-election or after it. The decision not to run a candidate was a mistake and Labor would have won.
Some views on Aston:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/31/aston-byelection-voters-in-the-former-liberal-stronghold-hold-peter-duttons-future-in-their-hands
B.S. Fairman at 9.57 am
One difference between Aston and the Eden-Monaro by-election, held on 4 July 2020, is that in Eden-Monaro there were 12 candidates, not 5.
Kristy McBain won 91% of Greens preferences, 56% of Shooters, and even 22% of the 6,052 Nationals’ preferences. The latter was largely because Porky Barilaro did not endorse the Libs in a very public way in the last week, just to keep open his chance for Eden-Monaro in 2022.
https://results.aec.gov.au/25820/Website/HouseDivisionPage-25820-117.htm
The other point is that Labor ran a strong postal vote campaign, partly because the by-election occurred a few months into the pandemic.
The LNP voters of Aston could follow in the footsteps of their illustrious federal leader and run away from the polling places to avoid voting.
Will, Doing a Dutton replace Doing a Bradbury?
The LNP voters of Aston could follow in the footsteps of their illustrious federal leader and run away from the polling places to avoid voting.
Will, Doing a Dutton replace Doing a Bradbury?
@Macca RB
You may be joking. But I’ve read that there is potentially going to be a low turn out. Which strategists on both sides think will advantage the Liberals not Labor.
Fessy
I’m guessing with the 1950s comment he’s referencing the bizarre fixation with trans people that we’ve heard about yet again from the Liberal party, along with their attitudes and behaviour towards women. And someone voting in the 80s would be in their late 50s, possibly 60s now, so not a young person who would commonly find the Liberal party’s social attitudes anathema to them.
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This person sounds like a would be Teal because a large portion of their supporters are in that age group but because some people are transfixed on young people they are missing the Liberals going backward in the middle aged age bracket.
Let me be a pain and throw out this question. “What if tomorrow’s by-election was for Longman and not Aston?” Now that would be one hugely interesting contest for all the reasons I know people out there can nominate. The list of reasons could go on forever – and the result of such an election would be a feast worthy of careful digestion.
P.s. Hoping for an A.L.P. win in Aston, but a swing to Albo would be just as good.
One thing is for sure – The Age would like a Coalition victory tomorrow!
Things to ponder:
Nazi’s and the LNP’s appeasement of them.
Dutton,
The LNP candidate being married to the Herald Sun political stooge,
Voting for a loosing team when the tide is pushing with labor / indies.
I’m tipping ALP by a hair.
My tip is a Liberals win with a 2PP about 2% higher than in the 2022 election. Rationales: Morrison and Tudge factors are losing punch. One Nation is not running. Hip pocket nerve.
The normal by-election swing is around 5% against whoever is in Government, with 7-10% being common. Labor is most unlikely to win Aston.
Labor have been in office for nearly a year. A lot of people are doing it tough. It won’t wash to blame it all on the last Government or on international events, even though much of it could be.
A swing of around 2-3% against Labor would be a good result. A Labor win, of course, would be great but that won’t happen.
My guess is that it’s going to be a swing toward Labor, but not enough to flip the seat. Labor’s put a lot of energy into this, but to win, it needs a 3% swing to the government, and that’s a low possibility for a federal by-election.
It’s telling though that the Liberals are keeping Dutton as far away from it as possible. That’s not exactly winning political behaviour. If Dutton remains as leader for the 2025 election, what will the strategy be then? Keep him well away from Victoria, where there’s 3 even more marginal seats for them to defend? (Deakin, Menzies and Casey). And furthermore 4 target seats for them to win government (Higgins, Kooyong, Goldstein and McEwen).
Aston is a long term, rusted on Tory seat
It is the safest Tory seat in metropolitan Melbourne notwithstanding the anti Tory swing at the last election just under a year ago
Who will be watching are the sitting Tories in Deakin and Menzies, both former Tory safe seats now held by as few as a couple of hundred votes and among the most marginal Seats in the Nation
And that is without “Teals” standing in Deakin and Menzies, which they will do next time
Remember also Sukkar was Dutton’s ill informed numbers man when Turnbull was axed by Murdoch and Stokes and Morrison installed
The ramifications of the Aston result will be felt in the adjoining seats especially if it confirms Dutton is not electable (except by the National Party majority in the LNP in Queensland, the LNP contributing just under half of the Seats the Tories hold in the Lower House)
Another question is which faction the wife of the Murdoch Tory promoter aligns with noting there was no Member vote to pre select her?
Would the membership have endorsed her?
And maybe not voting in this bye election
I hear she would not have won a Member’s vote – and the religious right candidate (Pentecostal) would have won, easily
The ‘law’ of bi-election setbacks isn’t actually a law. All indications are that Federal Labor is streets ahead (unlike most midterm Govts), Voldemort is particularly on the nose in Vic and in affluent educated demographics, parachuted candidates don’t inspire effort and enthusiasm in local branches, Sino sabre rattling by Scumo and co won’t be forgotten by the unusually large Chinese population. Put those facts against the so-called law and go figure.
Another example of a state government winning a seat from the opposition in a by-election is Clarence in 1996 when the NSW Carr Labor government won the seat from the Nationals.
Not quite the same, but the fresh Beattie QLD ALP government won Mulgrave in 1998, though this was held by One Nation rather than the Nat opposition.
Nevertheless, both Carr and Beattie won landslide re-elections at their next elections (as did Bracks in Victoria after two by-election wins from the opposition).
Think Lab will take this tbh.
If Lib win, it won’t be big, just enough for Dutton to mop his brow in relief at a win.
Liberals are expected to retain Aston.
https://citynews.com.au/2023/liberals-expected-to-retain-aston-seat-at-by-election/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
Hoping for a Labor win, but I think the Libs will retain on a similar margin.
Some who would have specifically voted against Tudge will come back in to the fold, but another cohort will despise the fact the Lib candidate is a parachuted in Inner City type.
I also expect some swinging voters Labor won over last time will vote Labor again, and more swinging voters will vote Labor this time due to the strong performance of the Govt.
Despite being a Sydneysider I’ve read a few Campbell columns and she sounds terrible. She’s the sort of person the party needs rid of.
Labor will bolt in.
Not quite the same, but the fresh Beattie QLD ALP government won Mulgrave in 1998, though this was held by One Nation rather than the Nat opposition.
Labor did win it very narrowly. Labor won because at the time there was optional preferential voting which benefited them. If there had been compulsory preferential voting at the time. Nationals would have ended up winning Mulgrave on One Nation preferences.
State elections swing more then federal elections. Voters look for who can get the job done with state elections. Federal elections they stick more to political ideology. There two very different beasts that’s why bringing up comparisons in terms of by-elections can be to some extent irrelevant.
Surprisingly small field for this one – usually by-elections collect a wide field of randoms. The booth I worked on at the 2001 Aston by-election had one of the more colourful casts of characters I’ve seen, including the Wilderness Society koala turning up to scrutineer for the Greens (I wasn’t about to attach my name to a PR disaster by objecting to this), someone from One Nation with a very rural accent who said things like “you blokes wouldn’t know how to split a log”, and someone from Help End Marijuana Prohibition who disappeared behind the bushes periodically, presumably to smoke a joint.
Its difficult to be objective and expect the government to win a by-election when its been such a long drought, but certainly this must be a higher probability than most other by-elections.
It does depend on if voters are more influenced by local or national issues.
An unknown lib should get better support than the previous member, because he had so much baggage.
But the government has had time to assert themselves since the federal election and perhaps win over some doubters. There are also some voters who will switch their vote to ‘go with the government’, because they control the purse strings, no idea if that would be a significant influence though.
If nothing else, the Aston by-election has led to the MSM proclaiming Dutton is facing a ‘test’ of his leadership. That in itself is an amazing turn around as it has always been Labor leaders who face ‘tests’.
My best guess is Aston is likely to be a toss-up margin <1% either way. The Liberals under Dutton really should be improving their vote in these circumstances but I don't expect to see it even if they hold Aston. The Libs are failing to appeal to younger voters and there are no indications at the moment that they're going to address this anytime soon.
S. Simpsonsays:
Friday, March 31, 2023 at 1:03 pm
One thing is for sure – The Age would like a Coalition victory tomorrow!
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I don’t think the City of Melbourne would mind either…
Working in Deakin but travelled to Aston yesterday and have to again today. Incredibly I believe these are two of only three Federal seats that the Liberals now hold in Melbourne (the other is Menzies)
With no UAP or One Nation candidates I think the Liberals will win with a (no more Tudge!) swing on TPP but Labor’s primary vote not changing much. So probably in the ‘normal’ TPP by-election swing of 3-7% against the sitting government.
Winning Aston would be a sugar hit for Labor but the Liberals winning it may help Labor more in the long term as the Coalition will decide everything is rosy and they can keep up with their current very successful strategies (certainly winning them hearts and minds in Mainland Australia!). The Sky News people will be celebrating like it’s a landslide win presaging the Second Coming of the Coalition throughout the nation!
As I went though Aston yesterday I just kept thinking ‘If the Liberals cannot win a seat like this they may as well disband’
Just voted. it was very quiet and I walked straight in to vote. The booth was covered wall to wall in the filth’s propaganda.
Numbers like “hundred years since a government won a seat off the opposition” and “1.2% average swing to the opposition in by-elections” are fun statistical curiosities, but treating them as if they have predictive value is folly. In the absence of info, people seem to like quoting these numbers as if they hold relevance to the situation tomorrow.
This will be a closely contested result, with Labor putting its full resources, in a seat which has characteristics that the Liberals have struggled with in the last year of federal and state elections, at a time when the Labor government is running high. This may or may not be enough to win the seat, but historical curiosities aren’t going to give any additional insight in predicting the result or why.
If the Liberals hold on, we can likely point to its long history as a safe Liberal seat and Tudge backlash possibly being baked into the margin. If Labor win, it’ll be the unpopularity of Dutton and continued attrition among middle-class suburban Melbourne.
My expectation is a swing towards Labor, but which way of the fence the seat lands is a toss-up. But I don’t think the Liberals could have asked for a worse set of circumstances going into this by-election, so I might just tip Labor by a hair even though the reasons for it to stay Liberal are many.
News Corp is playing this as a loss for Dutton win be a blow but a win will be a disaster for Albanese and Labor’s cost-of-living failures.
They obviously think the Liberals will win, like everyone else, and are trying to oversell the result in advance. But given Labor’s surge in the polls since the election, it’s no gimme, even if the Tudge factor boosted Labor last year.
The lack of polls and lacklustre media coverage are most interesting. Is ignoring Dutton the Libs’ best chance in Victoria?
Does the electorate of Aston know that the liberal candidate Roshena Campbell is other half of Herald Sun political editor James Campbell who regularly appears on ABC Insiders