Miscellany: by-elections and WA leadership poll (open thread)

Five candidates for the Aston by-election; defeated Liberals eye comeback bids; Mark McGowan’s personal ratings come off slightly.

With not much happening on the polling front his week, there is the following to relate:

• There is a modest field of five candidates for the April 1 by-election for Aston, which I’ve had less to say about than I would have liked due to the distraction of New South Wales. Following the ballot paper draw last Thursday, they are in order: Owen Miller (Fusion), Roshena Campbell (Liberal), Angelica Di Camillo (Greens), Mary Doyle (Labor) and Maya Tesa (Independent). Pauline Hanson interestingly offered last week that One Nation had decided to stay out of it as a “strategic decision not to take votes away from the Coalition”.

Paul Sakkal of The Age reports that not only have Monique Ryan’s recent difficulties encouraged Josh Frydenberg in his determination to recontest Kooyong at the election, but that Tim Wilson and Katie Allen have similar ideas about Goldstein and Higgins, which they respectively lost to teal independent Zoe Daniel and Labor’s Michelle Ananda-Rajah.

• A by-election will be held in the Northern Territory on Saturday for the seat of Arafura following the death of Labor member Lawrence Costa. The candidates in ballot paper order are Leslie Tungatalum (Country Liberals), Manuel Brown (Labor) and Alan Middleton (Federation Party).

The West Australian reports a rare item of state political polling crediting Mark McGowan with an approval rating of 63%, down seven since October, with disapproval up six to 24%. New Liberal leader Libby Mettam debuts with 24% approval and 18% disapproval. The poll was conducted “last week” by Painted Dog Research from a sample of 1052.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,954 comments on “Miscellany: by-elections and WA leadership poll (open thread)”

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  1. Boerwar @ Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 9:04 pm:

    “…we should put greater energy into the relationship [with Indonesia].”
    =================

    +1, BW.

  2. Sounds like Berlin is eager for an opportunity to bag Putin:

    “Germany will have to arrest Russian dictator Vladimir Putin if he enters German territory and if the International Criminal Court asks contracting states for enforcement, the country’s Justice Minister Marco Buschmann has said, Bild reported on March 18.

    “I expect the ICC to quickly approach Interpol and the contracting states and ask them for enforcement,” Buschmann said.”

    https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/justice-minister-germany-is-obliged-to-detain-putin-hand-him-over-to-the-icc

  3. Holdenhillbilly @ #2873 Sunday, March 19th, 2023 – 9:10 pm

    Victoria: Upper house Liberal MP Moira Deeming who attended anti-transgender event at state parliament has been expelled this evening

    The Liberal Party of Victoria were warned about her before the election and they didn’t listen. She was never going to change her spots.

    I heard an interesting theory this week. The attacks on Transgender individuals and Drag Queens by the Conservative Christian Religious Right are just convenient scapegoats because they know they can’t get away with criticising LGBTQIA+ people, even though they despise their existence just as vehemently.

  4. Enough Already @ #2902 Sunday, March 19th, 2023 – 9:18 pm

    Sounds like Berlin is eager for an opportunity to bag Putin:

    “Germany will have to arrest Russian dictator Vladimir Putin if he enters German territory and if the International Criminal Court asks contracting states for enforcement, the country’s Justice Minister Marco Buschmann has said, Bild reported on March 18.

    “I expect the ICC to quickly approach Interpol and the contracting states and ask them for enforcement,” Buschmann said.”

    https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/justice-minister-germany-is-obliged-to-detain-putin-hand-him-over-to-the-icc

    But which Putin will they bag? 😀

  5. In case anyone has noticed I am now only referring to the country invading Ukraine as ‘Muscovy’, here’s why:

    “KYIV ­— Ukrainians would like to rename Russia — and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is interested in the idea.

    A petition has been circulated urging the Ukrainian government to officially change Russia’s name to “Muscovy,” a term which originated in the 13th century and referred to large swaths of modern-day northwestern Russia.

    The move is part of a Ukrainian push to diminish what the Russians claim as their historic origin story. Senior Russian officials have already slammed the plan and criticized it as being a provocation.

    The recent row has its roots in a historical dispute over whether Russia or Ukraine can claim to be the legitimate successor of Kyivan Rus — the first state of the Eastern Slavs, which converted to Christianity.

    Zelenskyy responded to the petition by saying the issue needs careful historical and cultural consideration with regard to possible international legal consequences — but didn’t rule it out. …

    … Valeriya Shakhvorostova, the petition’s author, said the name change is justified as it will destroy Russia’s false narratives about common ancestry with Ukraine, as well as its encroachment on the history of Kyivan Rus.

    “For foreigners, the names ‘Rus’ (as Kyivan Rus was marked on the ancient maps) and ‘Russia,’ ‘Russie,’ and ‘Russland’ look almost identical, as if it is the name of one state that has undergone certain changes over time and […] translations into different languages,” Shakhvorostova wrote in the petition to Zelenskyy.

    “This leads to confusion at the international level. Fiction books are being written, films are being shot where Russia is presented as Rus, which is unacceptable,” she added.”

    https://www.politico.eu/article/rename-russia-volodymyr-zelenskyy-old-muscovy-moscow-kingdom/

    Don’t worry – no purity tests on this one! This is just my own decision for me. 🙂

    This move does invite us here in the West to explore Ukrainian history from c.980CE to 1721 a little more, especially the period of dominance by Genghis Khan’s Mongols. It can be surprising just how distinct were the histories of the Ukrainians and the Muscovites.

  6. Read this and let’s start a conversation. Didn’t you know that the Middle Ages were “wonderful” for women?

    “Think women have never had it so good? You should take a look at medieval days
    Martha Gill”
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/18/history-of-women-equality-medieval-and-modern

    My take (quick version): In traditional societies, gender equality increases under economic stress. The poorer the family is the more egalitarian the role of men and women as providers is. I don’t think that modern women have any interest in achieving greater gender equality via greater level of poverty….

  7. “Enough Already says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 9:18 pm
    Sounds like Berlin is eager for an opportunity to bag Putin”

    That reminds me about the case of the Chilean dictator Pinochet in London…. Allure Putin to Berlin with some international “Prize for Peace and Culture”… Then: SNAP!

    🙂

  8. We now know Presutto has drawn the line at rallying with neo-Nazis. So Deeming is out…. But he did let Renee Heath back in despite Guy kicking her out during the election campaign. So the being bigoted is not an issue, just Nazi saluting.

  9. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 2:37 pm
    I’ve just been out shopping for a new TV at our local mega mall and I believe I can say with confidence that there will be no recession in Australia as a result of interest rate rises (not taking into account the cliff dwellers). People were lining up to spend their money in the shops and the place was packed.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    Ditto.
    Absolute similar situation last Thursday night shopping. I spent several hours in one of the biggest shopping centers in Australia and while having afternoon coffee and cake I found the time to take in the bustling atmosphere from where I sat.
    I said to Ms 98.6 that if this is people tightening their belts, I would hate to see how busy the place would be when they are splurging.

  10. Alpo says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 9:31 pm

    Read this and let’s start a conversation. Didn’t you know that the Middle Ages were “wonderful” for women?

    “Think women have never had it so good? You should take a look at medieval days
    Martha Gill”
    ——————–
    The Middle Ages gets an unfair rap and sure it was no progressive worker’s paradise but i eyeroll at how some people talk about the period but it reflects on how poorly history is taught and that’s why i cringe at people when they talk about women as if they are new to leadership when they were always in the room or people call the Taliban medieval when women were active leaders and scholars.

  11. BSF: “he did let Renee Heath back in despite Guy kicking her out during the election campaign. So the being bigoted is not an issue, just Nazi saluting.”

    I wish someone would put a powerpoint together for me. I’m still not sure I’m getting the graph.

  12. Mexicanbeemer says:

    The Middle Ages gets an unfair rap and sure it was no progressive worker’s paradise but i eyeroll at how some people talk about the period but it reflects on how poorly history is taught and that’s why i cringe at people when they talk about women as if they are new to leadership
    _________
    Hear Hear. And all the torture devices were just a bit of harmless fun. Like this contraption designed for nagging women to shut them up. You just pop it on them, lead them through the town on a leash as a deterrent for other women nagging or gossiping.

  13. Western Metro always elects crazies.
    Catherine Cummings last term who was too crazy for the Justice party.
    Rachel Carling-Jenkins the term before who was too crazy for LDP and then the Conservatives.
    And of course, Bernie Finn was always elected for the Liberals out there too who got the boot.

    Labor had the woman who ratted on them over her faction getting caught branch stacking who went on to found one of the most insignificant party (New Democrats) at the last state election (4784 votes in the lower house and 7743 in the upper house). The funniest thing about the New Democrats is the picture on their website is shot inside a “House and land guru” office.

    One hopes that the last liberal member (Trung Luu) is sane but then again he is an ex-copper.

  14. nath says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 9:52 pm

    Mexicanbeemer says:

    The Middle Ages gets an unfair rap and sure it was no progressive worker’s paradise but i eyeroll at how some people talk about the period but it reflects on how poorly history is taught and that’s why i cringe at people when they talk about women as if they are new to leadership
    _________
    Hear Hear. And all the torture devices were just a bit of harmless fun. Like this contraption designed for nagging women to shut them up. You just pop it on them, lead them through the town on a leash as a deterrent for other women nagging or gossiping.
    ————————
    The guy’s fashion looks more 16th/17th century and that device was used on suspected witches.

  15. @Mexicanbeemer: “John Pesutto shows some balls but the real test starts now because the reactionary loons wont go quietly.”

    Would have been more impressive if he moved on her once her maiden speech demonstrated that any promises she had made that she would moderate herself were so much bat guano.

    Moving only when forced is less impressive. But better than playing along with the right wingers who will claim censorship etc.

  16. Branking (in Scotland and the North of England)[6][7][8][1] was designed as a mirror punishment for shrews or scolds—women of the lower classes whose speech was deemed “riotous” or “troublesome”[9]—by preventing them from speaking. This also gives it its other name, ‘The Gossip’s Bridle’.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scold%27s_bridle

  17. Presutto is slightly hamstrung in the sense that he alone can not boot someone from the partyroom but needs the partyroom to vote for expelling someone. Every time he moves against a crazy it puts his leadership to a vote effectively. That is why he had not previously moved against Deeming.

  18. Branking (in Scotland and the North of England)[6][7][8][1] was designed as a mirror punishment for shrews or scolds—women of the lower classes whose speech was deemed “riotous” or “troublesome”[9]—by preventing them from speaking. This also gives it its other name, ‘The Gossip’s Bridle’.
    ——————–
    That article says it first appeared in the 16th century and that puts it after the Middle Ages.

  19. “Mexicanbeemer says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 9:43 pm”

    There have always been the occasional high-profile woman since antiquity. Among the Greek women philosophers you will find:
    Aspasia of Miletus
    Clea
    Thecla
    Sosipatra
    Macrina the Younger
    Hypatia of Alexandria

    Question: How many of them do you know (or have even heard of)?
    Personally, I had only heard of Hypatia, but I know very little about her contribution…. Whereas the male Greek philosophers are many, well remembered and well studied.

    The same with the Middle Ages. There are some cases of female leaders, but how many? How much do we know about them? What’s their cultural legacy?

    I think that the awakening of the female gender in western culture is simply very recent, and thanks to the sacrifice of many women activists and men who supported them and their cause, now women enjoy far more opportunities than ever in our history….. Still, it’s not enough as more must be done.*
    ————-

    *I have a personal interest in this topic as I have a daughter and a granddaughter…

  20. There was no end to medieval creativity when it came to torture, punishment and humiliation! The ‘scold’s bridle’ or ‘mask of shame’ was a concept developed in medieval Europe to punish people, particularly women, who were found guilty of gossiping, gluttony, eavesdropping or lying. They were usually made of cold, unyielding metal, and molded into various mortifying designs.

  21. Alpo
    That’s a good point because much of the history has been lost or was written by the clergy and sexist and misogynistic attitudes were ripe so many women’s achievements were downplayed or ignored and because of that there’s gaps in the history of even some of the most famous women from the period.

  22. Oh, so sorry that i called you a Grouper C@t. I’ll stick with the far more accurate nomenclatures JingoC@t and our little Austral-American.

    Now, about that lie you told about me on Friday night? I think the phrase was … check notes … “confected mistruths”, even though I cited my source for the figure (that interim Virginia class subs would cost us between 50-58 billion). I’ve called you out about that twice already, but you’ve gone all ‘zero dark thirty’. Anything to say about that? Finally?

    If Ive gone over the top calling you a grouper, I apologise for any hurt feelings you suffer from, but at least I can point to your enduring defence of the SDA, various dubious SDA candidates that are foist upon the party and the community and yep, you parroting lines straight out of DLP pamphlets from the 1960s. So there is that.

    But what about you linking me to the epidemic of domestic violence?

    Hmm. As i said, you are not shrinking violet in dishing it out – to fellow bludgers and great Australians alike who do not conform to your take on the latest ‘team leadership’ group thought. But you enduring return fire in the same spirit you dish it out? Yeah, nah: its all ‘misogyny’ because you are not just one woman on a blog, you are all women. You are Gia.

    Also, if Hugh White is “ Hugh ‘Baloney Weapons of Mass Destruction’ White” then what does that make your mate Joe Biden? After all, he – not White – actually voted for the Iraq War, and given his position in the senate at the time, received all the secret squirrel briefings that analysts like White were deprived of …

  23. Alpo
    Aspasia of Miletus
    Clea
    Thecla
    Sosipatra
    Macrina the Younger
    Hypatia of Alexandria

    Question: How many of them do you know (or have even heard of)?
    Personally, I had only heard of Hypatia, but I know very little about her contribution…. Whereas the male Greek philosophers are many, well remembered and well studied.
    ——————————-
    Without googling maybe Hypatia who i think was murdered and maybe Aspasia and thecla.

  24. The role of women is overblown in the middle ages. Largely as a result of pop coverage of history. People often go to Eleanor of Aquitaine as some sort of proto powerful woman of the middle ages. The reality was Henry II had her locked up for about ten years due to her meddling in political affairs. Her impact was minimal. There was also the odd wife of an absent lord who symbolically defended a stronghold and of course Isabella of France who took a lover, Roger Mortimer earl of March and overthrew Edward II as king. It ended badly for her too. Roger was hanged, drawn and quartered and her son Edward III had her confined to Castle Rising for the rest of her days..

  25. Alexadra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald and Ashley Raper putting the boot into Minns and NSW Labor right now. It’s their ABC. Perrotet has shown great leadership and Minns has been exposed with nowhere to go on Pokies cards. Plus, even if he wins minority government he will under the control of the Greens who support the card.

  26. clem attlee says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 10:50 pm

    The role of women is overblown in the middle ages. Largely as a result of pop coverage of history. People often go to Eleanor of Aquitaine as some sort of proto powerful woman of the middle ages. The reality was Henry II had her locked up for about ten years due to her meddling in political affairs. He impact was minimal. There was also the odd wife of an absent lord who symbolically defended a stronghold and of course Isabella of France who took a lover, Roger Mortimer earl of March and overthrew Edward II as king. It ended badly for her too. Roger was hanged, drawn and quartered and her son Edward III had her confined to Castle Rising for the rest of her days..
    ——————————————–
    Eleanor of Aquitaine was placed under house arrest after supporting a rebellion but she also acted as regent of England and ruled large areas of southern France and Isabelle of France acted as regent before Edward III reclaimed the throne but much about these women isn’t known because history was mostly written by the clergy.

  27. Apropos of nothing in particular I am astonished anyone whose surname is Raper in the English speaking world hasn’t changed it by deed poll at some point in the last century.

    Producers of rapeseed oil began using the name Canola in I think the 70s?

  28. Note the little bell on top. This was to alert people as to the imminent arrival of a nag or gossip.

    Nath dear, that headset looks very uncomfortable. Why ever do you wear it?

  29. B.S. Fairman says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 9:41 pm
    We now know Presutto has drawn the line at rallying with neo-Nazis. So Deeming is out…. But he did let Renee Heath back in despite Guy kicking her out during the election campaign. So the being bigoted is not an issue, just Nazi saluting.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    All this talk about NEO-NAZIS and the NAZI salute being banned or made illegal must have NSW premier Dominic Perrottet squirming.
    Will the MSM ask Perrottet if he will follow other states like Victoria in making all this NAZI shit illegal as well as the hiring out of NAZI uniforms.

  30. Arky says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:09 pm
    Apropos of nothing in particular I am astonished anyone whose surname is Raper in the English speaking world hasn’t changed it by deed poll at some point in the last century
    Producers of rapeseed oil began using the name Canola in I think the 70s?
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    The Speaker of the House Of Reps is Milton Dick and his brother Cameron Dick is QLD’s Treasurer.
    I was told Cameron Dick didn’t like his name and he was thinking of changing it to Gary Dick.

  31. South Africa had better fulfil its obligations as a signatory to the ICC and arrest Putin the moment he arrives there for a planned visit this August, should it go ahead:

    “South Africa has said it is aware of its legal obligations relating to Vladimir Putin’s international arrest warrant ahead of his planned visit to the country in August, Reuters reports.

    President Cyril Ramaphosa’s spokesman, Vincent Magwenya, said on Sunday: “We are, as the government, cognisant of our legal obligation. However, between now and the summit we will remain engaged with various relevant stakeholders.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/mar/19/russia-ukraine-war-live-putin-visits-mariupol-in-first-trip-to-occupied-eastern-ukraine

    I interpret the cagey statement as indicating South Africa is trying hard to ensure Putin’s planned visit does not, in fact, go ahead.

    Putin, you are indeed now a pariah.

  32. Oakeshott Country says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:31 pm
    Nazi representation has been illegal in NSW for the last year
    https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/public-display-of-nazi-symbols-banned-nsw
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    To save me looking up the legislation would that include giving a NAZI salute in public as happened in Victoria and does it stop NAZI uniforms being sold or rented for the purpose of attending a (costume) party.

  33. Boerwarsays:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 9:04 pm

    ‘sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 8:19 pm

    Australia has no better friend than Indonesia. Both have strategic interests, including maintaining close cooperation on military matters.

    I suspect Boerwar has not kept up with recent developments

    Indonesia and Australia have taken an important step toward the deepening of their bilateral security relations, signing new agreements on counterterrorism, defense, and cybersecurity.
    ….’
    ———————–
    My relevant comment was that the elites get along, that the general populations feel little connection, that we have shared interests in quelling radical islam, that Bali is a mixed bag, that trade has not met its potential and that we should put greater energy into the relationship.

    Having just completed 3 years living and working in Indonesia I had no issues getting along with the general population. They are a most pleasant and welcoming people.

  34. 98.6says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:41 pm

    Arky says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:09 pm
    Apropos of nothing in particular I am astonished anyone whose surname is Raper in the English speaking world hasn’t changed it by deed poll at some point in the last century
    Producers of rapeseed oil began using the name Canola in I think the 70s?
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    The Speaker of the House Of Reps is Milton Dick and his brother Cameron Dick is QLD’s Treasurer.
    I was told Cameron Dick didn’t like his name and he was thinking of changing it to Gary Dick.

    At least he wasn’t contemplating, Walter. 🙂

  35. nath says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 10:05 pm
    There was no end to medieval creativity when it came to torture, punishment and humiliation! The ‘scold’s bridle’ or ‘mask of shame’ was a concept developed in medieval Europe to punish people, particularly women, who were found guilty of gossiping, gluttony, eavesdropping or lying. They were usually made of cold, unyielding metal, and molded into various mortifying designs.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    I think the photo of the (usually) woman’s ‘scold’s bridle’ tells us all we need to know about a woman’s place and life in medieval times.
    Of course similar contraptions were made to be worn on other parts of a woman’s body to stop any sexual activity in that area.

  36. 98.6 says:
    I think the photo of the (usually) woman’s ‘scold’s bridle’ tells us all we need to know about a woman’s place and life in medieval times.
    Of course similar contraptions were made to be worn on other parts of a woman’s body to stop any sexual activity in that area.
    ————————-
    The scold bridle wasn’t from the medieval period and was used as a punishment.

  37. 98.6 says:
    The Speaker of the House Of Reps is Milton Dick and his brother Cameron Dick is QLD’s Treasurer.
    I was told Cameron Dick didn’t like his name and he was thinking of changing it to Gary Dick.

    Barney in Cherating says:
    At least he wasn’t contemplating, Walter.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    I believe he rose to the rank of Major in the army before entering politics.

  38. “Vladimir Putin pays surprise visit to occupied Mariupol in Ukraine”

    I watched several photos of Putin in Crimea and Mariupol, and then compared with previous photos of Putin at his desk in Moscow. Of course, I cannot offer total certainty, but I regard myself as a very good physiognomist and I do have doubts whether the Crimea/Mariupol Putin is the real Putin.

    Anyway, the visit does show that the situation in the war against Ukraine is not regarded a happy one. The troops may need a boost in morale, and the “Putin” visit is obviously designed to provide that. But what the Russian troops need far more is logistic support. Although, I guess that even more than support they crave a swift end to this crazy conflict.

  39. Player One says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 8:40 pm
    ALPo @ #2881 Sunday, March 19th, 2023 – 8:26 pm

    “Player One says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 7:34 pm

    Are you serious? Do you not actually bother to read my posts?”

    Unfortunately for you yes, I do read your posts.
    Go on, call me a Green again. You know you want to.

    P1….the kindest thing that can be said of P1 is that they are a disingenuous, cynical, self-admiring Labor-hating reactionary troll with a will to type.

  40. 98.6 @ #2911 Sunday, March 19th, 2023 – 9:41 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 2:37 pm
    I’ve just been out shopping for a new TV at our local mega mall and I believe I can say with confidence that there will be no recession in Australia as a result of interest rate rises (not taking into account the cliff dwellers). People were lining up to spend their money in the shops and the place was packed.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    Ditto.
    Absolute similar situation last Thursday night shopping. I spent several hours in one of the biggest shopping centers in Australia and while having afternoon coffee and cake I found the time to take in the bustling atmosphere from where I sat.
    I said to Ms 98.6 that if this is people tightening their belts, I would hate to see how busy the place would be when they are splurging.

    It will be interesting to see the next set of numbers related to the economy.

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