With not much happening on the polling front his week, there is the following to relate:
• There is a modest field of five candidates for the April 1 by-election for Aston, which I’ve had less to say about than I would have liked due to the distraction of New South Wales. Following the ballot paper draw last Thursday, they are in order: Owen Miller (Fusion), Roshena Campbell (Liberal), Angelica Di Camillo (Greens), Mary Doyle (Labor) and Maya Tesa (Independent). Pauline Hanson interestingly offered last week that One Nation had decided to stay out of it as a “strategic decision not to take votes away from the Coalition”.
• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports that not only have Monique Ryan’s recent difficulties encouraged Josh Frydenberg in his determination to recontest Kooyong at the election, but that Tim Wilson and Katie Allen have similar ideas about Goldstein and Higgins, which they respectively lost to teal independent Zoe Daniel and Labor’s Michelle Ananda-Rajah.
• A by-election will be held in the Northern Territory on Saturday for the seat of Arafura following the death of Labor member Lawrence Costa. The candidates in ballot paper order are Leslie Tungatalum (Country Liberals), Manuel Brown (Labor) and Alan Middleton (Federation Party).
• The West Australian reports a rare item of state political polling crediting Mark McGowan with an approval rating of 63%, down seven since October, with disapproval up six to 24%. New Liberal leader Libby Mettam debuts with 24% approval and 18% disapproval. The poll was conducted “last week” by Painted Dog Research from a sample of 1052.
Labor policies – mostly for
Coalition policies – mostly against
Green policies – mixed.
Aukus – have concerns
‘Mexicanbeemer says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 7:10 pm
Boerwar says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 7:00 pm
‘Mexicanbeemer says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 6:40 pm
Boerwar
Whatever Indonesia may think about the value of having Australia as an ally, Australia and Indonesia are not allies.
———————-
That might be news to Canberra and Jakarta.’
===============================
Under which treaty are we allies?
——————————-
There might not be a formal treaty but there was a defence pact.’
=====================================
Link, please.
“Steve777 says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 7:16 pm
Aukus – have concerns”
I think that what’s missing from our debates about defence here is the advice that the department of defence, secret services and the military is giving to the government. Oh, and I wouldn’t trivialise that by saying that those entities will always advice for more expenditure in defence, and therefore manipulative scaremongering is in their interests. It’s a bit more complex than that.
Profound rebuttal by Pi:
“ A_E: “recognising that China is already as powerful as america economically”
lolno.”
When measured by PPP – as the IMF, World Bank and even the CIA do, China’s economy is already 20% larger than America. Even when using the good ole’ nominal GPN index China’s economy is already within 25% of the size of America’s and both countries dwarf the next group of countries on the list.
Google it mate.
So. Lols. Yes. My claim checks out.
Downer; The ponciest git that I can remember. He said two things that I recall that are worth repeating:
1. (paraphrasing) As soon as we start using nuclear power for energy, there’s an ethical question about whether we should be forced to accept the waste of the fuel that we exported for energy. As long as we don’t do that, that is use nuclear for energy, we can say “not my problem. we told you so.”
2. (paraphrasing) Australia doesn’t need to be so concerned with the way some in the world see us. We are an extremely wealthy and well respected country. Sometimes we don’t actually have to ask. He was talking about trade, but it was definitely couched in geopolitics.
It was in two different interviews over the late-90’s and early 2000’s. Just remembered thinking. “What a poncy git”. Right though. I don’t know why people would think things have will have changed. If anything, Australia is in an even more assertive position today than it was 15 years ago. Why wouldn’t that be the case? Australia is a stable democracy and the largest energy exporter in the world.
Boerwar @ #2828 Sunday, March 19th, 2023 – 7:18 pm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia%E2%80%93Indonesia_Security_Agreements
A_E “My claim checks out.”
You know what they say about statistics.
You should travel more.
ALPo @ #2849 Sunday, March 19th, 2023 – 7:13 pm
Are you serious? Do you not actually bother to read my posts?
Are you serious? Do you not actually bother to read my posts?
Profound Pi:
“ A_E “My claim checks out.”
You know what they say about statistics.
You should travel more.”
_____
What? There is a backpacker GNP index?
Travelling through Africa before covid there were Chinese highways everywhere. Travelling through america recently often resembles zombie towns in the Walking Dead.
Does this sort of anecdotal evidence count for something on the backpacker index?
yabba
So we have co-operative friendly relations.
I would not have thought that this is the same as being allies.
(forgot to say thank you)
Boerwar @ #2836 Sunday, March 19th, 2023 – 7:43 pm
I agree
For anyone interested, here is the text of the Lombok Treaty between Australia and Indonesia, effective from 7 February 2008, and still in force:
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/other/dfat/treaties/2008/3.html
The history of Australia-Indonesia Security Agreements:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia–Indonesia_Security_Agreements
Oh snap, E-A!
Thank Yabba and A E
Enough Already
For anyone interested, here is the text of the Lombok Treaty between Australia and Indonesia, effective from 7 February 2008, and still in force.
——————-
Wasn’t sure if it was still operational after a spat but the relationship appears to have improved over recent years.
I’m sure under the monocles there were upturned eyebrows. “I say what!”.
No P1. No one really reads your posts.
It’s all italicised nonsense.
I see your repetitive schtick and scroll on by. Rinse and repeat, with barely an original thought.
As do most others.
Gosh insiders sucked this morning.
I feel for Marles, he seems like a smart bloke misunderstanding that he’s being interviewed by fucking idiots.
Well said Griff.
P1 caught talking absolute rubbish about our university sector.
The Coalition’s vindictive treatment of the sector including through COVID did not help or anything but research remains very strong and student numbers are rebounding now the borders are open again and I am very hopeful – slash – expecting to see Labor’s budget start to make up for years of Coalition hatred of higher education and research.
Absolute rubbish about our capability to build up the infrastructure for nuclear subs, too. Obviously we do not currently have it but a major part of the announcement (lost in the rush by so many critics to pretend a program over 30+ years is solely the purchase price, and in 2023 dollars, of the Virginia subs) involved the necessary building of infrastructure and training of people. It’s almost like Albo and co are not dumb and have done the research, unlike P1.
Note that the Lombok Treaty includes no clause which obliges either party to actively assist the other in the event of an attack by some third country. However, Article 2 (3) is an interesting clause, because of the asymmetry in obligations it does set up on each party to not permit their territory to be used for a third party’s attacks upon the other:
“3. The Parties, consistent with their respective domestic laws and international obligations, shall not in any manner support or participate in activities by any person or entity which constitutes a threat to the stability, sovereignty or territorial integrity of the other Party, including by those who seek to use its territory for encouraging or committing such activities, including separatism, in the territory of the other Party;”
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/other/dfat/treaties/2008/3.html
This has often been analysed with respect to Jakarta’s request that Canberra act against efforts by West Papuan separatists to engage in pro-independence messaging or operational support from locations in our territory. That is a valid objection to the clause but another consequence that works more in our favour has been less remarked upon as far as I am aware.
It is hard to see an attempted seaborne invasion of Australian territory succeeding unless the invader’s air and sea assets can launch strikes or assaults through Indonesian territorial waters, unless it be restricted in its avenues of approach to the Coral Sea in the east and the Indian Ocean towards the WA coast south of about Port Hedland. If Jakarta fulfils its obligation under this section, it must not permit third country naval assets into its waters and then let them enter or strike Australian territory against our objection.
Unless this is mistaken, the Lombok Treaty, if faithfully adhered to by Jakarta, allows us to target our defence to the far eastern and western ‘flanks’ of our continent. This is a benefit of great value to the self-defence of a middle-ranking power without a strong military of its own, as we are. Consequently, I believe one of our primary foreign policy objectives must be to secure faithful compliance with the Lombok Treaty by Jakarta.
Arky and others that read my post and have commented about it during the day, I say thanks. I’m ok that some haven’t seemed to read it or if they have they’ve brushed over it.
I’ve been interested to read the American trope. I’ve an American wife who lived in Asia for 10 plus years and have learnt so much from her. There has been some pretty revolting posting on here for the last week.
AE I’m sure you have more knowledge on defence than the whole board put together but to me it seems you’ve drunk from the same water cooler for a very long time. I get how smart you are and I’ve learnt stuff but you really are an unsufferable twat how you come across to others.
I’d learn a lot more I’m sure if you tried to take people along than just banging them over the head all the time.
Pageboi wrote,
C@t,
“Going fishing doesn’t mean getting pissed with your mates. I can’t speak for Clem Atlee (good luck Clem!) , but in my case there has literally never been a drop of alcohol consumed on my boat, and I would never allow it – too dangerous at sea….. No we’ll just be a crew of 3 very serious fishos, all getting up at sparrows to try and chase some very serious fish. It’s a shame that you can be quite quick to resort to personal abuse when someone disagrees with you, I don’t think Clem warranted that sort of a response.”
Yep me too. I’m an angler, a fly fisherman to be precise and I can walk about four or five kilometers a day easy along rough river bank terrain. So no, I don’t drink when fishing. I am very serious about my sport.
In the event of the US going full fascist in the future under the likes of Trump or DeSantis will we be able to use the Virginia class subs to defend the region against any potential reckless hegemony?
Russians KIA Mar 18: 710
Total Russians KIA: 164,910
Daily average Russians KIA: 425.0
Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/19/7394096/
Australia has no better friend than Indonesia. Both have strategic interests, including maintaining close cooperation on military matters.
I suspect Boerwar has not kept up with recent developments
Indonesia and Australia have taken an important step toward the deepening of their bilateral security relations, signing new agreements on counterterrorism, defense, and cybersecurity.
The agreements were signed yesterday in Jakarta during a meeting between Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne and Defense Minister Peter Dutton and their Indonesian counterparts Retno Marsudi and Prabowo Subianto. Payne and Dutton were in Indonesia on the first stop of an overseas tour that will also take them to India, South Korea, and the United States.
Among the agreements were a revised and upgraded version of the Australia-Indonesia Defense Cooperation Arrangement signed in February 2018, shortly before the two nations elevated their ties to a “comprehensive strategic partnership.” The two nations also updated two memorandums of understanding on counterterrorism and cybersecurity.
Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto told a press conference that the new agreement could pave the way for the country’s two armed forces engage in joint military training in Australia, and for Indonesian cadets to attend Australian academies such as the Royal Military College at Duntroon. He described both as “a historical first.”
“I think this is important to enhance our cooperation,” Prabowo said. “Indonesia and Australia are important friends and partners in this region, we are close neighbors and we would like to be even closer friends.”
https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/australia-indonesia-agree-to-ramp-up-defense-relationship/
Arky wrote, “For Social Democrats the individual is a partner. For Neoliberals the individual is the king…. I can only hope that you Democratic Socialists don’t regard the individual just as a number.”
Don’t you just love the commie smear at the end. ‘Just as a number.’ Like I say, you just love the right wing Cold War imagery and language. I have got you pegged for what you are sport. Clearly somebody who wants to equate democratic socialism with communism. I wonder why that would be?
And if you think the Australian-Indonesian relationship hasn’t been RE-confirmed by the Alabanese Givernment..
Joint statement
Senator the Hon Penny Wong, Minister for Foreign Affairs
The Hon Richard Marles MP, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence
Her Excellency Retno Marsudi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Indonesia
His Excellency Prabowo Subianto, Minister of Defence of Indonesia
10 February 2023
Australian and Indonesian Foreign and Defence Ministers met for the Eighth 2+2 Meeting on 9 February 2023 in Canberra, Australia.
1. Consistent with the principles of the 2006 Lombok Treaty, Ministers met in a spirit of respect, friendship, and shared resolve to address regional challenges.
2. Reflecting on the Annual Leaders’ Meeting in Bogor on 6 June 2022, Ministers reaffirmed the importance of our two countries working together to achieve our shared goals of an open, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific region, where sovereignty is respected.
3. Ministers reaffirmed their commitment to deepen cooperation under our Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP). In the year ahead, Ministers agreed to enhance cooperation in trade and investment, development, infrastructure, clean energy transition, defence and security, and people-to-people relationships.
4. Ministers highlighted the significant contribution our bilateral defence relationship makes to regional security. Ministers recognised the value of our enduring military education and training links, and the important work being undertaken to expand the scope and complexity of activities between the Australian Defence Force (ADF) and Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI).
5. Ministers committed to deepening our defence engagement even further, including by working together on military medicine, military technology, defence industry and exploring ways to make it easier for our militaries to work together. Ministers reiterated their commitment to transparency around respective strategic and defence policy settings. Indonesian and Australian Defence Ministers looked forward to further discussions on defence cooperation during the Defence Ministers’ Meeting on 10 February 2023.
6. Ministers deplored in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine. They demanded the Russian Federation’s complete and unconditional withdrawal from the territory of Ukraine. The Ministers also denounced the prolonged war and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy – constraining growth, increasing inflation, disrupting supply chains, heightening energy and food insecurity, and elevating financial stability risks. They also urge all parties to work towards a peaceful resolution through diplomacy.
7. Australian Ministers commended Indonesia’s leadership of the G20 in 2022 and for leading a strong agenda to prioritise global efforts to recover together and recover stronger from the health and economic impacts of COVID-19.
https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/media-release/joint-statement-eighth-australia-indonesia-foreign-and-defence-ministers-22-meeting
And who can forget this….
sprocket @ Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 8:19 pm:
“Australia has no better friend than Indonesia. Both have strategic interests, including maintaining close cooperation on military matters.”
=================
Yes. You have pointed to the other side of the coin I was referring to just above: the more recent cooperation agreements that make it very likely Jakarta would request us to move our own assets up into their waters so we can join together in a coordinated defence against a threatened invasion. To the extent we can get US assets into the joint deployment as well, Indonesia becomes a very effective shield for us. Canberra knows its best ally for its own sovereign self-defence is Jakarta, and will remain so for as long as the earth’s tectonic plates are roughly where they are today.
“Player One says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 7:34 pm
Are you serious? Do you not actually bother to read my posts?”
Unfortunately for you yes, I do read your posts.
From The Guardian:
“Another 880 Russian soldiers were reportedly killed on Friday, according to unverified totals published by the Ukrainian army. Its general staff said that it meant more than 164,000 Russian service personnel had been killed since the outbreak of war in February last year. Another five tanks, seven armoured combat vehicles and eight artillery systems were disabled by Ukrainian forces, it said in an update posted on Facebook.”
What a senseless waste of young lives…. When are the Russian People going to start marching against Putin?
Henry @ #2868 Sunday, March 19th, 2023 – 7:57 pm
Well, you clearly read that one.
I think we can take your other comments with a suitable bucket of salt.
Oh, and here’s some more italics for you.
Just because. 🙂
ALPo @ #2881 Sunday, March 19th, 2023 – 8:26 pm
Go on, call me a Green again. You know you want to.
Player One
It is also worth asking why Universities must be “profitable”. When did making money become a key clause in a University “mission statement”?
It didn’t, and does not.
University funding has been eviscerated by successive federal governments (especially of the LNP persuasion). Therefore universities have to rely more heavily on alternative revenue streams to cover their costs. Student enrolments, especially the lucrative international student market, are a major source of income.
Mrs Shogun (who knows such things) tells me that there is a great deal of waste and mismanagement in the upper tiers of university administration – by Deans and Vice Chancellors and other rarefied types. I defer to her judgement.
Clem – I didn’t say that, I’m afraid you have gone off at the wrong person.
BTW, yesterday my mate and I walked along spectacular terrain in the Rubicon Valley and we caught some great fish, all of which were released to fight another day.
Shogun @ #2885 Sunday, March 19th, 2023 – 8:40 pm
And has the ALP fixed this?
Arky wrote, “Clem – I didn’t say that, I’m afraid you have gone off at the wrong person.”
My profound apologies, it was Alpo
Apology accepted. And my apology for calling you wranslide’s sock puppet the other day clem (and likely some more insults too, it all blends together a bit who got called what).
‘sprocket_ says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 8:19 pm
Australia has no better friend than Indonesia. Both have strategic interests, including maintaining close cooperation on military matters.
I suspect Boerwar has not kept up with recent developments
Indonesia and Australia have taken an important step toward the deepening of their bilateral security relations, signing new agreements on counterterrorism, defense, and cybersecurity.
….’
———————–
My relevant comment was that the elites get along, that the general populations feel little connection, that we have shared interests in quelling radical islam, that Bali is a mixed bag, that trade has not met its potential and that we should put greater energy into the relationship.
Alpo @ Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 8:34 pm:
“What a senseless waste of young lives…. When are the Russian People going to start marching against Putin?”
=================
Alpo, I wouldn’t hold my breath. The Kremlin has made sure the burden of mobilisation has fallen almost exclusively upon the more far-flung reaches of its Empire, precisely where massive concentrations of protesters are a mathematical impossibility. Until ‘heartland’ Muscovy gets seriously attacked, I think there is basically nil chance of a popular uprising in that almost completely zombified Empire.
Player One
And has the ALP fixed this?
The ALP should be condemned for not undoing all the bad policies of the LNP fast enough. Shame!
I may be a lowly Labor “stooge”, because I support ALP policy most of the time (though not all the time). But the “stooge” label is a sword that cuts both ways. There are people who criticise and slam the ALP at every opportunity. They react like Pavlov’s dog to any mention of ALP policy. These people are just stooges of a different kind – Player One is an exemplar.
Victoria: Upper house Liberal MP Moira Deeming who attended anti-transgender event at state parliament has been expelled this evening
Bakhmut, a graveyard for Russians sent pointlessly by their Kremlin masters:
“Ukrainian forces outside the fiercely contested city of Bakhmut are keeping Russian units at bay so ammunition, food and medicines can be delivered to defenders, the army said on Saturday.
And in the latest claim to have inflicted heavy casualties, Kyiv said its troops had killed 193 Russians and injured 199 others during the course of fighting on Friday, Reuters reported.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/mar/19/russia-ukraine-war-live-putin-visits-mariupol-in-first-trip-to-occupied-eastern-ukraine
That is an appalling ratio of KIA to WIA: 49.2% of all casualties KIA, practically 50:50. This usually indicates both extreme recklessness on the part of the unit commanders in ordering light infantry advances, and also horrifying indifference towards rescue of wounded back behind the lines for treatment. I think there will be mutinies in the RFAF before there will be popular uprisings anywhere it would matter back in Muscovy.
Shogun says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 9:09 pm
Player One
And has the ALP fixed this?
The ALP should be condemned for not undoing all the bad policies of the LNP fast enough. Shame!
I may be a lowly Labor “stooge”, because I support ALP policy most of the time (though not all the time). But the “stooge” label is a sword that cuts both ways. There are people who criticise and slam the ALP at every opportunity. They react like Pavlov’s dog to any mention of ALP policy. These people are just stooges of a different kind – Player One is an exemplar.
___________________________________
What your not a thought leader? I’m shocked, shocked I tell you.
Sounds like a great trim Clem
I got my first wahoo on Saturday!!! 137cm and about 12kg, went like the absolute clappers
That one did NOT live to fight another day, absolutely delicious
There you go gain player one.
Screaming for attention, demanding a response. Look at me!
Nah, you’re irrelevant.
So much for Moscow invading the Donbas to protect residents there from Ukrainian attacks, a key pretext of their invasion:
“Russia’s strikes on Kramatorsk, which regional governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said killed two people and wounded 10 on Saturday, marked the second time the eastern city has been targeted in a week.
On Tuesday, one person died and three people were wounded after a strike on residential buildings, Agence France-Presse reported.
Kramatorsk is located in the eastern industrial region of Donetsk, parts of which have been controlled by Kremlin-backed separatists since 2014.
In April 2022, a missile strike killed about 60 people at the Kramatorsk train station, in one of the war’s deadliest attacks targeting civilians.
Moscow has been seeking to capture the entire region after declaring it part of Russia last year.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/mar/19/russia-ukraine-war-live-putin-visits-mariupol-in-first-trip-to-occupied-eastern-ukraine
This is how Moscow cares for the residents of territory they claim is part of Russkiy Mir.
😡
How sad and pathetic are you if you continue to attack someone because they don’t agree with Paul ‘Legend in his own French lunchbox’ Keating and Hugh ‘Baloney Weapons of Mass Destruction’ White!?!
And, for the record, I am as far and away NOT a member of the DLP as one can get.
* I do not believe that Catholic Schools should get a disproportionate share of schools funding from the government.
* I do not believe abortion should be illegal.
* I do not subscribe to the belief that Homosexuality is a sin and an abomination and that Same Sex Marriage should be abolished.
* And I do believe the PRC should be recognised.
But it’s an evil little barb to toss at someone, isn’t it, Andrew_Earlwood? That I’m a Grouper. Because, as we have found out this week, that’s all you’re good at. You’re certainly not good at winning the argument. That’s for sure.