Miscellany: by-elections and WA leadership poll (open thread)

Five candidates for the Aston by-election; defeated Liberals eye comeback bids; Mark McGowan’s personal ratings come off slightly.

With not much happening on the polling front his week, there is the following to relate:

• There is a modest field of five candidates for the April 1 by-election for Aston, which I’ve had less to say about than I would have liked due to the distraction of New South Wales. Following the ballot paper draw last Thursday, they are in order: Owen Miller (Fusion), Roshena Campbell (Liberal), Angelica Di Camillo (Greens), Mary Doyle (Labor) and Maya Tesa (Independent). Pauline Hanson interestingly offered last week that One Nation had decided to stay out of it as a “strategic decision not to take votes away from the Coalition”.

Paul Sakkal of The Age reports that not only have Monique Ryan’s recent difficulties encouraged Josh Frydenberg in his determination to recontest Kooyong at the election, but that Tim Wilson and Katie Allen have similar ideas about Goldstein and Higgins, which they respectively lost to teal independent Zoe Daniel and Labor’s Michelle Ananda-Rajah.

• A by-election will be held in the Northern Territory on Saturday for the seat of Arafura following the death of Labor member Lawrence Costa. The candidates in ballot paper order are Leslie Tungatalum (Country Liberals), Manuel Brown (Labor) and Alan Middleton (Federation Party).

The West Australian reports a rare item of state political polling crediting Mark McGowan with an approval rating of 63%, down seven since October, with disapproval up six to 24%. New Liberal leader Libby Mettam debuts with 24% approval and 18% disapproval. The poll was conducted “last week” by Painted Dog Research from a sample of 1052.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,954 comments on “Miscellany: by-elections and WA leadership poll (open thread)”

Comments Page 56 of 60
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  1. Late Riser says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 12:54 pm
    phoenixRED, Alpo, re the Waco rally

    The former POTUS is a dangerous individual, no mistake about that. But if things run as predicted (by him, no less) then he’s going to be out on bail on the 25th or locked up. Will he breach bail conditions by travelling to Waco? Who will go to Waco in his stead? Who will turn up in Waco? Is Waco a trap? For whom? This is media speculation, promoting, even fanning, a dangerous event. Readers equals revenue.

    The former guy is raging. The focus should be on the GOP. What are they going to do? As you say, their time is up.
    ————————————————————————-

    I think there’ll be a lot of GOP presidential hopefuls breathing a sigh of relief if Trump is formally charged this week. Although diehards will stick by Trump, it’ll be yet another significant and detrimental impact to his election intentions and further diminish his standing more broadly.

  2. Rex Douglassays:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:47 am

    Labor and Liberal have put us on an irreversible path to global conflict that is designed to give the US crazies total domination.

    This AUKUS policy is the worst policy since federation.

    Integrity,

    You seem to be suggesting the creation of Australia was a bad thing.

  3. Alpo @ Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:42 am:

    “Enough Already says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:37 am”

    Indonesia is a good friend of Australia, with the exception of a little pause during the Howard years due to East Timor.”
    =====================

    The work by former PM Paul Keating and former Foreign Minister Gareth Evans deserves kudos in this regard.

  4. Agreed that someone with real political insight and experience ‘up the Hill’ should be hosting Insiders, rather than Mr Gotcha.

    I understand Kristina Keneally is between gigs, and is available.

  5. Cronussays: Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 1:05 pm

    I think there’ll be a lot of GOP presidential hopefuls breathing a sigh of relief if Trump is formally charged this week. Although diehards will stick by Trump, it’ll be yet another significant and detrimental impact to his election intentions and further diminish his standing more broadly.

    *****************************************************

    The Ghost of GC @gtconway3dg

    it’s really something to hear the twice impeached former president who’s broken countless laws, stolen top secret documents, colluded with foreign adversaries, staged a coup and even considered invoking the insurrection act, accuse the rest of us of hating America.

    Alexander S. Vindman @AVindman·

    Damned political hacks criticizing the arrest of a corrupt president who thought he was above the law & engaged in endless corrupt schemes triggers me! Prostituting themselves to appeal to the party base without any consideration for democracy & rule of law continues to shock.

    Glenn Kirschner @glennkirschner2·

    Trump says he’ll be ARRESTED on Tuesday; tells his supporters to come to Manhattan for his arrest to “TAKE OUR NATION BACK!” When it comes to inciting imminent lawless conduct, Donald Trump has priors.

  6. RP

    “ RP says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 1:01 pm
    Cronus
    True but all the same, highly unlikely and most probably very expensive in blood and treasure
    My personal opinion is that a squadron of B21’s would offer much more capability, probably field a squadron for less than $100 billion in today dollars and have them fielded half a decade earlier.
    I remain unconvinced that having 3 subs well off the Chinese coast capable of launching a 120 Tomahawks with 450 kg warheads of which maybe 10-20% might get through would be that much of a deterrent to the Chinese. As for shipping well probably easier not to load those iron ore and gas cargoes rather than sinking them when they get there.
    I’m of the opinion that Aukus was developed not because of a considered defence policy development but rather a desire to wedge the Labor party. They were given one night to consider it.
    Thank you for your input I appreciate your experience and knowledge.
    Worked with a few of your boys who were in the rappel crews when I was a fire-fighter in the Victorian Alps 3 decades ago. Also lived with an ex British para in England in the mid 80’s. He got out just before the Falklands, had some very unpleasant experiences in Northern Ireland though.”
    ———————————————————————————

    Much appreciated and I don’t necessarily disagree with you. Just as I’ve been shocked over the years by museum weapons that’ve returned to the battlefield, I’ve been shocked by tactics that I thought and hoped had been consigned to history. Perhaps history is destined to repeat itself.

    I made a comment some days ago which might’ve sounded trite but it was actually meant (re AUKUS and the subs) that sometimes if we’re (Labor) dealt lemons the best option is to make lemonade. Whether it be subs of whatever kind or B21s I think the aim is to deter which can be done from a distance through pure ownership of weapons platforms with credibility and capability. We could never defeat China on our own and rightly, it’s not even a strategic, cultural or economic goal, but I feel the idea is to give an opponent a genuine cause to reconsider.

    I think the current scenario gives our government the opportunity to build a broad range of coordinated defensive options with various missile types, and the latest naval and air platforms to defend the nation (in time) against most adversaries and to provide the alliance with sufficient oomph. I actually don’t expect any of these weapons to have to be used hopefully but in the event of the unlikely scenario, they can be and effectively.

  7. phoenixRed

    I should’ve concentrated a little more during my time in the US and I’m not absolutely certain of the legal minutiae behind the American definition of sedition but I might’ve thought Trump was again sailing very close to the wind by using speech/internet to incite people to rebel against the authority of the state. If nothing else, it confirms that Jan 6 was not necessarily unique to Trump, it’s his primary fallback position.

  8. What sent Al Capone up the river was tax avoidance, not the Mafia racketeering.

    It would be fitting if what sends Donald Trump up the river is paying off a porn star, not fuelling the overthrow of the elected government.

  9. Palmer Report@PalmerReport·

    Donald Trump’s day so far:

    – Says he’ll be arrested on Tuesday
    – Unhinged meltdown begging his goons to save him
    – Good luck explaining that at his arraignment
    – Manhattan is just the start
    – Georgia and Jack Smith not far behind
    – Trump is going to prison
    – It’s still only 8pm

  10. A squadron of B21s would cost no more than $A20 billion incls in 2023 dollar terms. $12 billion for two airframes and spares, $8 billion for facility upgrades (including missile defence systems for the airbases) and training.

  11. Rex Douglas
    There’s something wrong in Australia when environmentalists get jailed, kids barely in their teens get jailed, but neo-nazi’s are free to parade around promoting their ideology.

    If neo-Nazis block traffic on the Sydney Harbour Bridge – and prevent commuters from getting to work and earning a living – then they deserve to be arrested.

    Alas, Neo-Nazis are allowed to broadcast their sick ideology in public. I doubt they will win over any hearts or minds.

  12. ‘Seadog says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 1:26 pm

    Not sure if this makes me a chicommie or not but interesting none the less.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2023/03/17/covid-origins-raccoon-dog/
    —————————————–

    1. Who collected the specimens?
    2. Who provided the provenance for the specimens?
    3. Is there a solid evidence chain between collection and analysis?
    4. Where were the specimens stored?
    5. Which labs in China stored racoon dog samples or housed racoon dogs?

  13. From what I have read – * THIS GUY ( Jack Smith ) will be the one to do Trump in……and Trump knows it ….

    ( * Special Counsel for the United States Department of Justice )

  14. A Nuclear attack on Australia, lets say Pine gap, North West cape and the like, would be less a concern than the Nuclear Winter that would follow, because if we are being hit by a half dozen, how many more would be let off elsewhere? Why one would even think about talking up a war with China is beyond stupid.
    All nuclear armed states know this, as does everyone else. A Nuclear winter would kill billions. Many studies show this as a very likely result in even a small nuclear exchange.
    That doesn’t mean we need to bow down to our new communist masters, but we need to tread carefully.

    But OK, put a few subs off the coast of China, what could possibly go wrong?

  15. My fears re Marles as Defence Minister have been realised.

    An absolute turnip who has sold Australia off to the US.

  16. RP and Cronus: I think you guys are pretty spot on with your discussion.

    If only Albo had released the Strategic Review and announced Australia’s defence posture before the AUKLUS announcement, perhaps a lot of heat in the debate would have dissipated. THEn we could just focus on the details of what is by any test a complete balks up and monumental waste of opportunity, time, money and damaged relationships.

    The more I examine the individual parts of the AUKUS deal the more I shake my head. The only aspects I am actually sanguine about is (1) the rotation of British and American boats through Australian ports by 2027 and ultimately (2) the SSN-AUKUS build programme from the mid 2030s-60s. But take one step back from the rest and it is bonkers. There is only one payer – the Australian tax payer and we are propping up the US and British nuclear industries to cover their own sins of decay and underfunding for next two two decades first. Bonkers. Just bonkers.

  17. If the claims of Chinese aggression, believed by many here as entirely true, we will be a chinese province well before the subs are even designed let alone built and delivered.

    Fortunately what would be terrifying threat is little more than paranoid feer dreams of those conned by ASPI and the idiots in the media who are doing ASPI’s dirty work.

    It is a little surprising that coming from completely disreputable sources doesn’t give more pause to think.

    It will be interesting watching the war within three years morphing into ever more provocative attacks on China and I suspect those really wanting a war will be keen to try and declare Tiawan a state.

    If that doesn’t provoke China perhaps we’ll need to start the war ourselves, attack as the best form of defence, perhaps the insane paranoia they’ve induced i weak minds will just morph into a war of aggression rage as they continue to plant insane ideas in very weak racist minds.

  18. The USA has no commitment to defend Australia,unlike NATO.
    The USA just wants to use Australia as a base for their nuclear armed subs and as a sacrificial front line in their battle to stop Chinas development.
    The americans must be laughing all the way to the bank to think that an Australian government would be so stupid as to pay $380 billion for a few second hand Virginia subs of which only one will ever be in action while at the same time Australia has a giant target painted on our ports and cities as substitute targets in a future war.
    The alternative to AUKUS was not doing nothing but building ,in Australia,40 conventionally powered subs for Australias defence or going with the French nuclear subs at half the price and powered by non weapons grade uranium.
    If anyone still thinks just slavishly attaching ourselves to the USA is a good idea you just need to remember that this week marks 20 years since Australia was one of only two countries to follow the USA into the illegal counterproductive disastrous war in Iraq based on trumped up US lies about WMD.

  19. ‘WeWantPaul says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 1:57 pm

    If the claims of Chinese aggression, believed by many here as entirely true, ….’
    ——————————————
    To which claims do you refer?

  20. Cronus
    I think we’re pretty much on the same page. The subs are a done deal. Much greater war stocks of pgm’s and local manufacturing, integrated air defence for the northern airbases also.
    Yeah the Russians are fighting like it’s 41/42.

    Andrew Earlwood
    I was being very generous we know how defence purchases blowout. Current price of B21 is said to be US $700 million, so about Au$ 1 billion each, So a squadron of 12 -$12 billion. Generally a factor of 4 for operations and sustainment so $50 billion would perhaps be more reasonable

  21. Manhattan DA Bragg privately warns of intimidation after Trump calls for protest

    Bragg’s office appears poised to bring criminal charges against Trump in connection with a hush-money payment made to a porn actress, Stormy Daniels.

    “we do not tolerate attempts to intimidate our office or threaten the rule of law in New York,” according to a copy obtained by POLITICO.

    “Our law enforcement partners will ensure that any specific or credible threats against the office will be fully investigated and that the proper safeguards are in place so all 1,600 of us have a secure work environment,” Bragg wrote, adding that the office has been coordinating with the New York Police Department and Office of Court Administration, the administrative arm of the court system in New York.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/18/manhattan-da-bragg-privately-warns-on-intimidation-threats-to-rule-of-law-00087745

  22. SMH….
    From 2033, Australia is due to obtain the first of its own Virginia-class submarines from the United States. A second Virginia-class should arrive in 2036 and another in 2039.

    In the 2040s, Australia will build a new type of submarine, the SSN AUKUS, based on an updated version of the current British Astute-class submarine and featuring American parts.

    I think the first SSN AUKUS will be named HMAS Camel.

  23. ‘Sceptic says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 2:18 pm

    Greg Sheridan is just Rupert’s ars# licker, bags China because Rupert has no media presence in China dispute booting a good wife for a Chinese floozy & a few new ethnically diverse children.’
    ——————————————
    Sick post of the day award.

  24. Law enforcement arriving at Al Capone’s South Florida mansion in 1938…

    85 years later, another criminal getting a visit.

  25. I’ve just been out shopping for a new TV at our local mega mall and I believe I can say with confidence that there will be no recession in Australia as a result of interest rate rises (not taking into account the cliff dwellers). People were lining up to spend their money in the shops and the place was packed.

    Boerwar @ #2756 Sunday, March 19th, 2023 – 2:27 pm

    ‘Sceptic says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 2:18 pm

    Greg Sheridan is just Rupert’s ars# licker, bags China because Rupert has no media presence in China dispute booting a good wife for a Chinese floozy & a few new ethnically diverse children.’
    ——————————————
    Sick post of the day award.

    Sceptic has really gone off the deep end recently, hasn’t he?

  26. WeWantPaulsays:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 1:57 pm
    If the claims of Chinese aggression, believed by many here as entirely true, we will be a chinese province well before the subs are even designed let alone built and delivered.

    Why do I get the impression that you would be ok with this outcome?

  27. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 1:33 pm
    A squadron of B21s would cost no more than $A20 billion incls in 2023 dollar terms. $12 billion for two airframes and spares, $8 billion for facility upgrades (including missile defence systems for the airbases) and training.
    ——————————————————————

    Comparatively speaking it’s an ok return on the dollar. I wonder if fuel is the main ongoing cost? I’m not familiar with the maintenance costs but still I suspect anything exposed to the sea is subject to more decay than airframes that are exposed to stresses. Much easier to access airframes as well.

  28. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 1:53 pm
    RP and Cronus: I think you guys are pretty spot on with your discussion.

    If only Albo had released the Strategic Review and announced Australia’s defence posture before the AUKLUS announcement, perhaps a lot of heat in the debate would have dissipated. THEn we could just focus on the details of what is by any test a complete balks up and monumental waste of opportunity, time, money and damaged relationships.
    ——————————————————————————————-

    Agreed about the Strategic Review (I think Socrates might’ve suggested the same), it’s a more logical process. Identify issues and solutions then sell to the public before formally announcing the fait accompli. I wonder why this obvious process wasn’t followed? Surely the strategic review could’ve been truncated through necessity (after all the outcome is always known) allowing for an expedited process through to the logical completion.

  29. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 2:14 pm
    The effort to incorporate Camilla into the institution is immense.

    https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1637265329003872256
    ———————————————————————————

    I’ll say this for the Royals, the makeover and subsequent marketing of Camilla has been exceptional, textbook marketing of the highest order. They’ve turned the devil into an angel, phenomenal outcome really. I say this as one who supports a republic but kudos where kudos is due.

  30. United States Imports from China was US$575.69 Billion during 2022, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. United States Imports from China – data, historical chart and statistics – was last updated on March of 2023.

    This is an increase of 9.4%

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports/china

    The Chinese Battery Manufacturer CATL and Ford have agreed to build a factory in Detroit that will provide cells for 400,000 vehicles a year.

  31. Remember Craig Kelly? Was going to be PM, but sadly the voters didn’t agree.

    This Liberal rat was close to another one in the adjoining electorate of Cook – and tomorrow Kelly gets his day in court.

    And he is not too happy about it..

  32. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 2:37 pm
    I’ve just been out shopping for a new TV at our local mega mall and I believe I can say with confidence that there will be no recession in Australia as a result of interest rate rises (not taking into account the cliff dwellers). People were lining up to spend their money in the shops and the place was packed.
    ——————————————————————————————
    C@T
    I too have noted this anomaly, there’s a real disconnect between what I read and what I observe. I should add that I don’t live in an economically challenged environment so am somewhat sheltered. I wonder if this is a further manifestation of the growing inequality divide whereby those with money are often largely unaffected by the daily economics? And of course, sometimes people’s spending priorities might not be what we imagine.

  33. Cronus @ #2786 Sunday, March 19th, 2023 – 2:55 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 2:14 pm
    The effort to incorporate Camilla into the institution is immense.

    https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1637265329003872256
    ———————————————————————————

    I’ll say this for the Royals, the makeover and subsequent marketing of Camilla has been exceptional, textbook marketing of the highest order. They’ve turned the devil into an angel, phenomenal outcome really. I say this as one who supports a republic but kudos where kudos is due.

    The firm are doing their best, but Camilla is hard to manage…

    https://twitter.com/KmartRoyal/status/1635678395144056844

  34. C@tmomma says: Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 2:37 pm

    People were lining up to spend their money in the shops and the place was packed.

    *********************************************

    How is the mask wearing in your parts of the woods , C@tmomma ????

    My partner and I seem like the only ones still wearing them in our rural Vic town – we get ‘you must be out of a flying saucer’ looks on our one day marathon shopping ……..

    , ………. does anyone still care ??????

    Australian National University infectious disease expert, Dr Nick Coatsworth – “There is a triple threat this year, with the combination of flu, Covid-19, and RSV, and the urgency for early protection is real,” said Dr Coatsworth, “as GPs and hospitals across the country stretch their capacity to record levels, the demand is only going to worsen if we all get sick.

    “Many will still rely on their GPs to get vaccinated, but this may become problematic with already overstretched GP clinics and extended waiting times.”

    Dr Coatsworth is urging Australians to use a pharmacy to get vaccinated in the lead up to winter, especially for flu and Covid injections.

  35. The discount rate will be raised until it’s no longer negative. This would come about at a relatively lower rate if the fiscal settings were tightened -if taxes on high incomes were increased.

    This would be a progressive step in more ways than one.

  36. This article is not primarily about China, nor is it about submarines …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-19/ken-henry-australian-economy-mining-tax-system-inequity/102115172

    … it is about how Australia is heading for – in fact, has achieved – economic stagnation. The tide is going out and Australia has been frolicking naked.

    It all paints an inglorious picture.

    “In summary, mining employs a very small proportion of the Australian workforce, except in the boom times, when it induces a worker to leave other jobs for mine-site construction work, but generates about 60 per cent of Australia’s exports, about half of pre-tax corporate profits, mostly repatriated overseas to foreign shareholders, and exposes the Australian economy to highly volatile global commodity prices and a heavy strategic dependence upon a single buyer, China,” he said.

    “Moreover, it is a sector heavily exposed to climate risk; specifically, the risk of global decarbonisation.”

    This is not good news on so many fronts. This article blames our “policymakers”, but we really have no-one to blame but ourselves. I think most of us knew what has been going on – how could we not, when entire industries have simply been cast loose? We just refused to face the fact that our economy has been undergoing deliberate simplification for decades now, and while the profits have been going up as a result, they have been going to fewer and fewer people, with less and less of them being re-invested locally in new capabilities. They have simply been pocketed instead.

    So I am not posting the article to discuss the economic cul-de-sac we now find ourselves in. I am posting it because it is germane to the PB sujet du jour – i.e. AUKUS. Because this article also tells you why AUKUS is a really, really bad idea. Not only are we needlessly antagonizing our primary source of income, we are no longer able to build or maintain anything as sophisticated as a nuclear submarine. We could barely manage to build the diesel ones, and that was decades ago when we had a much more skilled workforce and a much more capable and broadly based manufacturing sector. And even if we tried to rebuild that sector, I’m not sure it is possible to do it within the necessary time frame. We have not just trimmed our manufacturing sector back, we have clear-felled it and also torn up the roots.

    Don’t misunderstand me – Australia is not “doomed” by any means. Not while there is stuff left to dig up and ship out. But it is not a country that should be contemplating building nuclear submarines. Even the UK struggles with that. It is high time we faced reality about our capabilities, our place in the world, and our future.

    And if you do so honestly, it becomes clear that AUKUS is the wrong deal in the wrong place at the wrong time.

  37. EA, what’s revealing is that you watch too much YouTube warporn late at night, and by the morning you’re so scrambled that you need to explain to everyone how much you’ve ‘learned’

    Pew pew pew.

    Find a hobby brah. Can I suggest model planes?

  38. There are a couple of people out there in PB-land — older gentlemen, no doubt — who need to wrap their heads around the fact that misogynistic insults don’t suddenly become cute and funny if you direct them at people you deem to be conservative.

  39. Appearing on MSNBC on Saturday just moments after Donald Trump claimed he is going to be arrested on Tuesday, former prosecutor Glenn Kirschner said the former president’s all-caps post on Truth Social that seems to encourage violence will become evidence in future indictments.

    Speaking with host Katie Phang, Kirschner said the two posts will come back to haunt him — and the former president knows what he is doing by inciting his fans. “I would slap a government exhibits sticker on this post and I would introduce it at his criminal trial,” Kirschner explained. “And this is a dark moment in our nation’s history.”

    “Because what we have just seen is basically, ‘come to D.C. on January 6th. Will be wild 2.0.’ And I am sorry to say that for months I have been saying on air and online, that the moment Donald Trump knows he’s been indicted, his first post will be come to Manhattan or come to Georgia for my arraignment — will be wild.”

    “He knows precisely what he is doing,” he elaborated. ” He used similar language to incite, first of all, to entice his supporters to come to D.C. on January 6th. and then he proceeded to incite imminent, lawless action and he has done it all over again.”

  40. P1: “Not only are we needlessly antagonizing our primary source of income, we are no longer able to build or maintain anything as sophisticated as a nuclear submarine”

    Look, China manages it and I’m pretty sure we educate a significant fraction of their engineers and scientists. The idea Australians are too stoo-pid to build or maintain submarines is cultural cringe to a horrible extent.

    The point about our domestic manufacturing capacity being hollowed out (mostly due to the Coalition) is true but all the more reason to do something about that, as many countries have discovered after the pandemic affect on supply chains.

    “Let’s suck up to our primary source of income” is far more mercenary, capitalist and unprincipled than I’d expect of someone ostensibly Green. Anyway, after the all in rush for Chinese trade for most of the past 20 years everyone is already stepping away because of China proving it is an unreliable trading partner, and India is clearly being looked at as the new gold rush. Trade will adapt.

  41. Re: Cronus and the B-21 program, in comparison with subs:

    “ Comparatively speaking it’s an ok return on the dollar. I wonder if fuel is the main ongoing cost? I’m not familiar with the maintenance costs but still I suspect anything exposed to the sea is subject to more decay than airframes that are exposed to stresses. Much easier to access airframes as well.

    _________

    RP postulates that the total turned out costs for a squadron of B-21s would be perhaps just under A$100 billion, but he is including sustainment costs over what appears to be a 30-40 year period.

    I’m actually not convinced that sustainment costs for this bomber would be anything like that. That’s because – new airframe aside – it is effectively an F35 in all other respects. Same engine (without afterburners). Same sensors, same brain. Even things like the weapons bays and landing gear have been specifically designed to be cheaper and more effective versions of what is fielded on the B2. So, everything is a proven system, which is why they have been able to thus far bring the program in ahead of the timeframe and under budget.

    Further, unless the platform is engaged in actual operational deployments, it only needs to be physically flown when taking part in war games (so a once or twice a year event). All the rest of the ongoing training requirements can – and will – be done on flight simulators. This is in contrast to Fighter planes. Even the F35 system – which provides high resolution flight simulators as part of the overall package – still requires ongoing training by pilots in the real thing, because the high G loadings of actual flight in tactical fighters can’t be replicated on a sim. That is simply not a consideration for bomber crews (especially the B-21 which is specifically designed to not include the B-2s low altitude tactical manoeuvring capabilities [which turned out to be a bust and hence not repeated for the new bomber]).

    I reckon that an individual B-21 will only be flown 100 hours a year, unless engaging in an actual ongoing combat situation like in the lead up to the last two Iraq wars. Given that it is effectively just a large F35, I reckon it will probably match the cost per hour of that platform (so less than $28K per hour). The rest of the costs will be annual wages for the flight crew and ground staff and whatever costs are incurred in keeping the software of both the plane and sim up to date.

  42. Pi @ Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 3:19 pm:
    ===============

    Pi, the pics and excerpts I posted this morning, which drew your little gaming sound-effect response, were taken from the lead article on the Kyiv Post website. I think your dismissal of that site as “warporn” says a lot about what you think of Ukraine. I also think your use of that little sound-effect says a lot about what you think about the Ukrainians’ defence of their land against Moscow’s imperialist invasion.

    But peace, bro. 🙂

  43. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 3:48 pm
    Appearing on MSNBC on Saturday just moments after Donald Trump claimed he is going to be arrested on Tuesday, former prosecutor Glenn Kirschner said the former president’s all-caps post on Truth Social that seems to encourage violence will become evidence in future indictments.
    —————————————————-

    I’m not at all surprised. Some of the responses I’ve seen from Trump’s followers will no doubt be further evidence.

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