With not much happening on the polling front his week, there is the following to relate:
• There is a modest field of five candidates for the April 1 by-election for Aston, which I’ve had less to say about than I would have liked due to the distraction of New South Wales. Following the ballot paper draw last Thursday, they are in order: Owen Miller (Fusion), Roshena Campbell (Liberal), Angelica Di Camillo (Greens), Mary Doyle (Labor) and Maya Tesa (Independent). Pauline Hanson interestingly offered last week that One Nation had decided to stay out of it as a “strategic decision not to take votes away from the Coalition”.
• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports that not only have Monique Ryan’s recent difficulties encouraged Josh Frydenberg in his determination to recontest Kooyong at the election, but that Tim Wilson and Katie Allen have similar ideas about Goldstein and Higgins, which they respectively lost to teal independent Zoe Daniel and Labor’s Michelle Ananda-Rajah.
• A by-election will be held in the Northern Territory on Saturday for the seat of Arafura following the death of Labor member Lawrence Costa. The candidates in ballot paper order are Leslie Tungatalum (Country Liberals), Manuel Brown (Labor) and Alan Middleton (Federation Party).
• The West Australian reports a rare item of state political polling crediting Mark McGowan with an approval rating of 63%, down seven since October, with disapproval up six to 24%. New Liberal leader Libby Mettam debuts with 24% approval and 18% disapproval. The poll was conducted “last week” by Painted Dog Research from a sample of 1052.
If an foreign nation is so determined to take Australia that they amass one of the largest armadas in history, and conduct the largest amphibious operation in history, then I say they are welcome to it and let them have it.
“Enough Already says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:37 am”
Indonesia is a good friend of Australia, with the exception of a little pause during the Howard years due to East Timor.
“nath says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:42 am
If an foreign nation is so determined to take Australia that they amass one of the largest armadas in history, and conduct the largest amphibious operation in history, then I say they are welcome to it and let them have it.”
Thanks nath, you have now officially become a Whiteflaggist… We will remember in future replies to your posts on the issue of national defence.
Labor and Liberal have put us on an irreversible path to global conflict that is designed to give the US crazies total domination.
This AUKUS policy is the worst policy since federation.
“Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:41 am
#StronglyArmedNeutralAustralia.”
Hey, Rex, I strongly recommend to get some lectures on neutrality from Finland and Sweden.
Off you go….
Am seeking opinions/information from all posters here – even from the deranged ones, as in the odds are that a broken clock will be correct twice a day.
Other than in the case of the invasion of Australia (and like Imperial conquests) has there ever been an armed invasion or war where both sides have not lied continually to promote their own position during and after the conflict? And in many cases before the conflict.
The absurdity of this deal is laid bare in this soft interview / article by Galloway of marles in the Herald:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/new-submarines-will-deter-blockades-that-cut-us-off-from-the-world-marles-20230316-p5css4.html
It is clear that when labor came to office that achieving an AUKUS outcome nigh on impossible:
“ This came with three sets of problems. The first was that America’s shipbuilding was already at capacity.
The second was that the US planned to stop building Virginias from the early 2040s – the very moment they would begin rolling off the Australian production line.
The third was that this would create a loser, Britain, who would get nothing out of the deal.
To overcome these three obstacles, two things needed to happen.
Firstly, the US needed to be prepared to sell Australia some of its existing boats that had already been in service in return for Australia investing the bulk of $3 billion to increase its shipbuilding capacity.
Secondly, Britain needed to agree to move on from its Astute class submarine, and operate a joint platform with Australia.
Marles admits there were times early on when it felt like there was no answer to the question of the capability gap.”
____
So, what has actually happened is that we are paying two MAJOR powers (one THE super power) over the barrel so they can first fix their own problems in return for us getting second hand interim subs at some point 10 to 15 years hence, and financing a brand new (and hence not mature design) class with Britain that may – if all things go smoothly (and they never ever do) – we will only start to get another decade later.
Marles pondered that ‘at times’ there never seems to be an answer to the question of the capability gap. Even though France continued to offer both conventional and nuclear powered submarines to be deleivered within the time frame that would have closed that capability gap.
Frankly it requires a royal commission to get to the bottom of why France continued to be rebuffed. On a rational basis ‘but alliances’ won’t cut it, given that France is both a member of NATO and a South Pacific Power. Not when America had already agreed to all the ‘interoperability’ stuff being placed in french designed boats for Australia back as far as 2016.
And poor old Britain had to be accommodated, did it Richard? Why? When did your sworn office include considering the interests of a foreign country to that level?
It is clear there was a little ‘never France’ memo on Richard’s desk when he first took office. Why – as a new government – was labor so beholden to that? All labor had to do to pivot away from its pre-election AUKUS commitment was:
(1) leak the likley costs;
(2) leak the dire state of both Britain and America’s own boat building capacities; and
(3) [this is actually the tricky one] get the Biden administration to agree to expand AUKUS to include France and then put them back into the game.
But no, from day one, the trio of ‘seriously unwise’ labor people were just as pig headed and ‘committed’ as Morrison and Dutton.
Everyone should take a moment and ponder the degree of incredulity involved in the final deal. this is just bonkers.
It’s taken not even a year of Labor Govt to confirm Australia’s continued unwavering commitment to enabling more fossil fuel global destruction and to further the US corporate global domination.
Alpo says:
Thanks nath, you have now officially become a Whiteflaggist… We will remember in future replies to your posts on the issue of national defence.
_____
And don’t think I will forget you post-invasion. When I am warmly ensconced with the new regime. I will personally come and round you up to slave in the lithium mines. Count on it.
Given the proliferation of anti ship guided missles and integrated air defence, the days of contested amphibious assaults by major powers against neer peer competitors are over.
Anyone else out there worried about the “High Seas Fleet” problem: in the last half of WW1 Imperial Germany’s fleet was inactive as it was simultaneously too small to realistically threaten the British fleet but also too large to risk destruction. “Fleet in Being” as strategic weakness not strength.
What if we end up with a fleet of subs that is threatening enough for China to target, but too small, expensive and vulnerable to use?
‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:21 am
“ Do you go out of your way to be vicious and nasty? Does that come naturally or did you have to learn how to be like that?”
A combination of natural talent and university debating. Mia culpa Boer.
Edited to add: I’m sorry Boer but the racial fears about all the other states you have mentioned has been well and truly alive in the mid set of the Austral-britons and little Americans for decades. Especially the fear of Indonesian invasion (as if that could ever be achieved by anything more sophisticated than a fishing fleet, lol).
It’s just that Big Panda makes them soil themselves the most. Although being greedy bastards its a laugh a minute seeing them oscillate ‘on a gut reaction level’ between the money to be made out of China and the fear of a Panda invasion.’
———————————
The many, many parallels between now and the thirties are a rational consideration. The pattern of China’s military aggression is a rational consideration. The South China Sea land grabs combined with the militarization thereof is a rational consideration. The stoking of historical resentments in China’s state-controlled MSM is a rational consideration. The biggest naval build up in world peace time history is a rational consideration. A routine substantive disregard for anything like international norms is a rational consideration. An ideological fear and loathing of liberal values and of representative democracy is a rational consideration. A state in which decision making is devolved to a single individual is a rational consideration. The actual threat to go to war to solve a perceived threat (a democratic Taiwan) is a rational consideration. The shaky nature of the regime’s legitimacy is a rational consideration. The routine economic punishment of peccant states is a rational consideration.
I hope all of the above leads to a big fat nothingburger. There is no Thucydides Trap. There is nothing deterministically consequential about any or all of the above. Framing these considerations as a racism issue, and hence a perception issue, should be considered in the analysis. However, IMO they are substantive, observable phenomena.
The problem is assessing the risks and attributing some sort of confidence levels to the assessed risks.
I have been mulling over war and its consequences quite a bit lately. When I was a kid I asked my parents why they had chosen Australia as their preferred (and hence my) migration destination. They told me they had considered Canada and Argentina. The answer had partly to do with Australian connections built up by dad on the Burma Railway. But the big answer? Australia is a very long way from the Russian Bear.
Both sides of the family had suffered extensively during war, military defeat and occupation.
This did not make a whole lot of sense to me at the time. But, to Ukrainians, the Chechens, the Georgians, it would make perfect sense.
“Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:47 am
Labor and Liberal have put us on an irreversible path to global conflict that is designed to give the US crazies total domination.
This AUKUS policy is the worst policy since federation.”
Whereas China and Russia have been just engaged in some tourist activities in either the South China Sea or Ukraine. Oh, and the Chinese are just doing some birdwatching from afar in the direction of Taiwan…. Bloody AUKUS, what a “paranoid” policy, eh Rex?
I bet that you Whiteflaggists would be the first ones to jump and run to momma as soon as the threats become real (although a good defence is exactly designed to eliminate those threats).
‘Geetroit says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:52 am
Anyone else out there worried about the “High Seas Fleet” problem: in the last half of WW1 Imperial Germany’s fleet was inactive as it was simultaneously too small to realistically threaten the British fleet but also too large to risk destruction.
What if we end up with a fleet of subs that is threatening enough for China to target, but too expensive and vulnerable to use?’
————————————-
The correct answer is the Grand Fleet. But I suspect you would not like that answer.
Sceptic says:
Saturday, March 18, 2023 at 7:35 pm
Bob Carr very bluntly warning that a US/China war is likely to go nuclear, and that should Australia join we would be an early target.
So what. This is not news. The corollary is that war between the US and China is extremely unlikely. Just as direct conflict between Russia and the US has not occurred there has been no war in which US and Chinese forces opposed each other since 1953. The fact that nuclear weapons exist and can be effectively delivered has prevented war between those who have them. That is the obvious lesson of the period since 1945.
The objects of Australian (and Japanese and Korean) defence policies in the Pacific are to preserve the status quo. This cannot be done without the permanent commitment of the US to defending the territorial borders, economic system and strategic array with which we are familiar. This is being defined as including the defence of Taiwan. From China’s perspective this amounts to interference in their internal affairs. From the Western perspective it is to continue to support an historical ambiguity and a legal anomaly for strategic reasons. It is arguable that Taiwan has become a mere token in the larger purposes of both China and its protagonists….that it is a new domino.
In any case, the prospect of war between China and the US over Taiwan or anything else is very remote. The status quo will persist, with its contradictions and ambiguities intact as well. Even so, heightened friction seems to be inevitable, driven in the first place by the despotic Xi.
Boerwar says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:52 am
The many, many parallels between now and the thirties are a rational consideration.
__________
There are no parallels. It’s just your childhood phobias and traumas reforming to make sense of the world.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:47 am
Labor and Liberal have put us on an irreversible path to global conflict that is designed to give the US crazies total domination.
This AUKUS policy is the worst policy since federation.
__________________________________________________________
A little hyperbolic of you Rex. The worst policy since federation? I think our involvement in the Vietnam War, the White Australia Policy, Australia’s early friendliness with apartheid South Africa, and I’m sure I’ve missed a few others, easily rank as worse policies than AUKUS.
I too have my reservations about buying expensive nuclear-powered submarines from the USA, but it isn’t all America’s fault. The point is China has changed. It is not the relatively under-developed, weaker, isolated power that it was in the days of the Cold War.
China is now a leading economic and military force and it is pushing boundaries in ways it didn’t dare do before. Its aggressive (no other word will do) push in building military bases in the South China Sea, more frequent threats towards Taiwan, which will do more to bring on a global conflict than AUKUS will do, are all reasons for concern.
I don’t think we should talk about going to war with China, but we have to keep an eye on that country and let it know there are certain lines it cannot be allowed to cross.
“nath says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:51 am”
Gees nath, I didn’t know that you had aspirations to become a Kapo…
But forget it, you won’t get Alpo. If the invasion is successful (but it won’t be), I would be with the Resistance fighting in the desert. Our unit will be known as the Taipans and my name will become Alpoison…
Remember to stay away from the sand dunes Kaponath!
🙂
Fair bump from Buddy.
Harder to bend down when you are relatively old and tall.
Shellbell
Commentators say Buddy will cop a suspension
The cartoon by Reg Lynch portrays the predicament for the Liberals as a party and politics in Australia generally.
Morrison’s group house completely trashed the conditions of their tenancy agreement with the Australian public, have had their bond with the voters withheld, while the various state elections are expressing outright anger with anything “liberal”.
It’s only the talk of war by the tree media and the ageing irrelevant commentators that are allowing the coalition at all levels and geographic locations to appear competitive.
Dutton is a poorer version of Morrison, somewhat less duplicitous, with a thin veneer of leadership skills and will be stripped of his leadership position at the first signs of a turnaround in the fortunes of the elitist, dishonest and spiteful remnant neo liberal Howardesque coalition.
Dutton’s removal will not happen till the Liberals are prepared to expunge the scourge of 1950’s male dominated, private school educated, British empire-ish, white and “women bring a cake ” mentality that defines both the Liberal and National gerrymander that is allowed to be perpetuated and maintained.
The corruption inquiry is yet to begin !
The Liberals and Nationals have become very “trumpish” with their complete shut-out of the reality of their breaches of trust with the public.
Even with the benefits of non preferential voting in NSW and the seemingly unassailable margins in many electorates held by the Liberals in NSW, the stench of panic and defeat is smothering an electorate just wanting to be rid of the political trash that is “Liberal”.
The public just want yesterday’s political prawns, too long in the sun, disposed of now.
Experts: Trump is encouraging violence with Waco campaign rally on 30th anniversary of deadly siege
Early Friday evening Donald Trump announced he will hold a campaign rally in Waco on March 25, which falls during the 30th anniversary of the 51-day deadly siege in that Texas community. Barely more than 12 hours later the one-term ex-president under at least four criminal investigations posted a statement that some, including legal experts, warn is encouraging or inciting violence, or is “a call for violence,” after claiming he will be arrested on Tuesday.
NBC News presidential historian and author of ten books, Michael Beschloss, summed it up: “So Trump is planning his first campaign rally for Waco on thirtieth anniversary of the siege where a cult leader challenged the authority of the federal government and threatened violence.”
Saturday morning, in several lengthy all-caps rage posts on his Truth Social platform, Trump claimed he was being arrested on Tuesday, and demanded his followers “protest, take our nation back!”
“Trump has issued a call for violence. He knows exactly what he’s doing. Republicans need to publicly rebuke this dangerous rhetoric immediately.”
‘Alpo says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:42 am
“Enough Already says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:37 am”
Indonesia is a good friend of Australia, with the exception of a little pause during the Howard years due to East Timor.
…’
————————-
Uh… Australian and Indonesia soldiers were killing each other during Konfrontasi. West Papua is a bleeding bilateral wound that is currently only just welling blood rather than flowing freely.
At elite levels there is a degree of comfort in the relationship. This is extremely shallow when it gets down to the general populations of both countries. There has been a general failure to maximize the trading potential on both sides. Both sides have to contend with radical islam the power of which appears to wax and wane. There is a sort of combined win win and lose lose in Bali.
IMO Australia needs to give far more importance and attention to Indonesia than it does.
Sir Henry Parkes says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:
I don’t think we should talk about going to war with China, but we have to keep an eye on that country and let it know there are certain lines it cannot be allowed to cross.
‘We’ cannot stop China from ‘crossing lines’. We have no such capacity. The only power capable of opposing China is the US. Our policies are aimed at encouraging the US to safeguard the current order. The US has its own interests. These do not always coincide with ours, and might not always include marking lines that China must not cross. Nonetheless, we are currently trying to construct a kind of ANZUS-plus.
“phoenixRED says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 12:08 pm”
Yes, this is truly the end of the line for the GOP. Trump only knows to move in one direction: forward. He will mess up the GOP more and more until the party breaks and submits to Trump’s will; or the party delivers Trump to Police, to be jailed for the rest of his life.
The options are narrowing….
Daniel Andrews needs to get serious on these neo-nazi dickheads that the media love to showcase.
They’re terrorists. Plain and simple.
The law should allow VicPol to arrest them and if need be jail them if they continue these socially destructive actions.
Alpo says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 12:01 pm
“nath says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:51 am”
Gees nath, I didn’t know that you had aspirations to become a Kapo…
But forget it, you won’t get Alpo. If the invasion is successful (but it won’t be), I would be with the Resistance fighting in the desert. Our unit will be known as the Taipans and my name will become Alpoison…
Remember to stay away from the sand dunes Kaponath!
________________________________
Someone has watched Red Dawn too many times.
Rex Douglas
People are free to protest.
As long as they are not inciting violence.
As much as the neo nazi crowd disgust me, better to have them out in the open so we can see what we are dealing with.
RP says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:51 am
Given the proliferation of anti ship guided missles and integrated air defence, the days of contested amphibious assaults by major powers against neer peer competitors are over.
———————————————————————-
I’ve learned never to say never. Here we are again with the latest of technical weapons still fighting from trenches in Ukraine as though it was WWI.
I have no tolerance for neo-nazi’s.
Their movement should NOT be given clear air to evolve.
Knock it on the head NOW, I say.
Rex Douglas
This group have been around for a long time. I would much rather know who they are, then have them go underground
Rex Douglas
Funny that you see a threat from a few dozen toxic males protesting in the city.
Yet how dare Australia boost its alliance with the west to deter the likes of China and Russian nexus.
Shakes head
Rex
“The law should allow VicPol to arrest them and if need be jail them if they continue these socially destructive actions.”
How very “robodebtish” of you Rex
“nath says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 12:21 pm
Someone has watched Red Dawn too many times.”
Careful Kaponath, Alpoison and the other members of the Taipan freedomfighter squad, are reading your posts….
🙂
goll
Lol
The dozen neo-Nazis were pretty pathetic….if that is the best they can muster better we see their sad little faces.
As for Indonesia- it is the Number 1 (or narrowly 2) overseas tourist destination for Australians…..though many Australians probably dont even know Bali is in Indonesia!
Life in our community is too short and precious to allow a bunch of neo-nazi’s to rise up.
Rex
Its tempting to arrest the w–kers but its better for the government to be really inclusive because its only when groups feel left out that they drift to the extremes and that way the nazis w–kers stay on the fringe.
It could be that the US has already laid down marks that China must respect, and is now trying to marshal Australian support for US ground-keeping. Are there risks in this for Australia? There are certainly economic risks: China has already used trade reprisals against Australia. The alliance with the US delivers strategic protection for us. But it is not cost-free. We are now committed to acquiring the capacity to contribute to forward-deployment in the China Sea. This is part of the price we’re paying for US patronage.
The apostate Stooge
Precisely
nath @ Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:54 am
“Boerwar says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 11:52 am
The many, many parallels between now and the thirties are a rational consideration.
__________
There are no parallels. It’s just your childhood phobias and traumas reforming to make sense of the world.”
One person’s history is another person’s fantasy.
There’s something wrong in Australia when environmentalists get jailed, kids barely in their teens get jailed, but neo-nazi’s are free to parade around promoting their ideology.
Rex Douglas
If any of these protestors did something criminal etc they would indeed be arrested.
The Apostate Stooge @ Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 12:40 pm
Curious how fortifying lesser powers against greater powers to maintain peace was a teaching of the ancient Chinese philosophy of Mohism.
The current law says its illegal to display any nazis symbols so the solute might qualify.
phoenixRED, Alpo, re the Waco rally
The former POTUS is a dangerous individual, no mistake about that. But if things run as predicted (by him, no less) then he’s going to be out on bail on the 25th or locked up. Will he breach bail conditions by travelling to Waco? Who will go to Waco in his stead? Who will turn up in Waco? Is Waco a trap? For whom? This is media speculation, promoting, even fanning, a dangerous event. Readers equals revenue.
The former guy is raging. The focus should be on the GOP. What are they going to do? As you say, their time is up.
I’ll let the answer by the Estonian Defence Minister, Hanno Pevkur, to a ‘Dorothy Dixer’ from the Kyiv Independent, speak for itself:
“The Kyiv Independent: As of February, Estonia has provided military assistance to Ukraine worth 370 million euros, or more than 1% of its GDP, making Estonia’s assistance the world’s largest in this term. Why is Estonia the frontrunner when it comes to supporting Ukraine?
Hanno Pevkur: I could also ask why the others are not doing as much as Estonians. Because we all understand that Ukraine is not fighting only for itself and for the Ukrainian people. They are fighting for a free world and a rule-based world. So this is why we have to help Ukraine as much as we can. Of course, we know that Ukraine needs that help desperately.”
https://kyivindependent.com/regional/estonian-defense-minister-its-still-an-artillery-fight-and-tallinn-will-help-kyiv-get-at-least-1-million-rounds
frednk says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 10:13 am
Spears is a light weight.
To save insiders Spears needs to get the chop and Laura Tingle needs to be put in charge.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
I doubt it has anything to do with Spears being a light weight or even a heavy weight.
The show is doomed to be retired at the end of the year.
As for its stablemate Q&A, it could go as soon as mid year, certainly won’t be back next year.
“Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 12:46 pm”
If you rally in the streets with a permission to do so then it’s fine. But when you don’t have a permission, or you do but then get violent, then it’s not fine.
Jailing somebody for his ideas is dangerous, unless the individual is spreading ideas that are legally off limits: e.g. the idea of assassinating this or that public figure.
Cronus
True but all the same, highly unlikely and most probably very expensive in blood and treasure
My personal opinion is that a squadron of B21’s would offer much more capability, probably field a squadron for less than $100 billion in today dollars and have them fielded half a decade earlier.
I remain unconvinced that having 3 subs well off the Chinese coast capable of launching a 120 Tomahawks with 450 kg warheads of which maybe 10-20% might get through would be that much of a deterrent to the Chinese. As for shipping well probably easier not to load those iron ore and gas cargoes rather than sinking them when they get there.
I’m of the opinion that Aukus was developed not because of a considered defence policy development but rather a desire to wedge the Labor party. They were given one night to consider it.
Thank you for your input I appreciate your experience and knowledge.
Worked with a few of your boys who were in the rappel crews when I was a fire-fighter in the Victorian Alps 3 decades ago. Also lived with an ex British para in England in the mid 80’s. He got out just before the Falklands, had some very unpleasant experiences in Northern Ireland though.