The Age/Herald brings the monthly Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention, which has Labor down two on the primary vote to 40%, the Coalition up two to 31%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation down one to 5%. No two-party preferred is reported, but this would pan out to around 58-42 based on preference flows from last year, in from around 60-40 last time. Anthony Albanese’s approval rating (very good plus good) is down four on last month to 56%, with disapproval (very poor plus poor) up five to 30%; Peter Dutton is up one to 29% and down one to 45%; and Anthony Albanese’s lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister is 55-23, in from 55-20. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604. Further results published today including a finding that 50% expect economic conditions to worsen over the coming year, compared with 18% for improvement and 24% for staying the same.
The fortnightly Essential Research poll, which does not exclude undecided from its voting intention numbers, has Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30% on the primary vote, both unchanged on a fortnight ago. The Greens are down three from an anomalous peak last time to 14% and One Nation are steady on 6%, with undecided at 8%. The 2PP+ measure had Labor down four to 51%, the Coalition up two to 42% and undecided up three to 8%. As noted in the previous post, Anthony Albanese’s approval is down two on a month ago to 53%, and his disapproval is up three to 34%. The full report, featuring questions on economic issues and interest rate rises, is here.
The Victorian Liberal Party’s administrative committee has as expected endorsed barrister Roshena Campbell as its candidate for the April 1 Aston by-election. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Campbell received 13 votes, with former state upper house MP Cathrine Burnett-Wake and oncologist Ranjana Srivastava on three each.
Yabba, yes that precise number got my bullshit detector twitching and made me do the rough sums as I was taught by dear old dad, an engineer, who used to rough calculations before setting the computers (women with maths degrees) to work through the calculations over 3 weeks, they had break points so they could have morning tea, lunch, afternoon tea and go home each night
meher baba @ Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 6:50 pm:
“But I think it’s wrong for protestors or other invitees to try to cancel artists and writers from participating in events like this.”
===============
Meher Baba, that seems sound in the abstract, but do you think there is a line to be drawn beyond which speech or artistic expression can be inappropriate? If in principle we say ‘Not at all’, then I think your point stands as applied to the case of this writers’ festival. However, if that is the case, we are precluded from prohibiting expression on grounds of vilification or reputational damage, for instance. If we start admitting those as exceptions to the genera rule, where do we put this particular claim, that Zelenskyy promotes Nazism, Zionism and is a warmonger, despite being Jewish, committing no crimes against Israel’s neighbours, and leading a country which was invaded and occupied rather than the reverse – and whose existence depends upon support from Western audiences to whom this propagandist is sermonising?
Griffsays:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 6:57 pm
Rex Douglas @ Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 6:55 pm
“So, it’s revealed today that Lidia Thorpe was done over by Labor through dodgy donations”
Vrooooom!
Rebels Bikie fart?
Dr John @ Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 7:01 pm
Mebbe. Or it could be her Qantas Chairman’s Lounge membership 🙂
billie @ #301 Wednesday, February 22nd, 2023 – 6:59 pm
Which calculations, might I ask, billie?
frednk says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 5:12 pm
Cronus says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 4:15 pm
..
I’m not sure Yevgeny Prigozhin realises that his penchant for profile and notoriety is anathema to Putin and his failure at Bahkmut makes Prigozhin expendable. There can be only one Highlander.
..
How long before he falls out of a window?
————————————————————————
😆 The clock is ticking, of that I’m sure.
Politcal Nightwatchman says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 6:16 pm
Has Rex Douglas complained long and loud about the candidate parachuted into the federal seat of Aston yet? Like he did about Kristina Keneally?
Yeah I’ve noticed Rex Douglas and Lars Von Trier have been both very quiet on this. They also overexaggerated this false narrative that Tu Le was somehow the popular rank and file’s choice in Fowler. Le received 6 out of the 61 votes in the state seat in Cabramatta hardly strong evidence she would have won the Fowler preselection. And no I didn’t support the Kristina Keneally parachute. But Le constantly complaining to the media and being handpicked by the former member doesn’t warrant entitlement for the seat.
_________________________
Please stop.
The Electorate of Cabramatta has 60,997 electors. So the ALP preselection group is 0.1% of the Electorate. Even the Leninist Cadre had 10% membership.
So Point 1) 61 people picking a candidate is unrepresentative. There is a reason that the ALP has delayed and manipulated preselections for years. How many of these people are “friends and family” ?
Point 2) Tu Le is the popular choice of the electorate. Chris Hayes the former Federal member recognised that and the electorate know her for her good work advocating on their behalf.
Tu Le should have bolted and run as an independent in Fowler- hopefully her misplaced loyalty to the ALP will not stop her contributing in public life.
Fowler will not return to the ALP until Tu Le is restored whole.
Lars Von Trier
Has been quiet on why Peter Dutton (QLD)was allowed to vote for Roshena Campbell with the Victorian Liberal Party admin , while the rank and file Victorian liberals were not allowed to vote at all
WeWantPaul says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 5:25 pm
“Why the hell are Australian naval vessels patrolling with the Philippines in the South China Sea? Did that dumbarse Marles run this past Penny?”
Like us the Philippines are a vassal state of the USA. We both just do what we are told. We will both be the cannon fodder if / when China moves on Tiawan.
——————————————————————————————
In fact in such a situation most likely our handful of ships and both submarines will simply patrol our own territorial waters as they’d be of little use in the grand scheme. In any event, it’s purely hypothetical as it’s unlikely to ever occur so not worth fussing over. Lots of sabre rattling but little else.
That’s an easy one Scott.
The Liberals had a preselection vote scheduled for March 7 – Labor this week called the by-election for April 1st. So the Liberals had to appoint a candidate.
Why would you leave the seat without a candidate for a week and a half – with 3 weeks to campaign for the by-election?
Hopefully you have the decency to recognise the injustices dished out to the loyal Tu Le.
WeWantPaul says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 5:36 pm
Can you imagine if China established 4 new military bases in Mexico.
The tiny little minds of the looney tunes brigade here would implode.
———————————————————————————————
Comparing apples with oranges and highly implausible.
Furthermore, In 2012, China forcibly took control of Scarborough Shoal, which lies 229km (124 nautical miles) west of the Philippine island of Luzon and built military facilities on it. Not hypothetical.
Rex
Where? What?
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 7:26 pm
That’s an easy one Scott.
The Liberals had a preselection vote scheduled for March 7 – Labor this week called the by-election for April 1st. So the Liberals had to appoint a candidate.
——————
Lars Von Trier
Dutton promised the Victorian liberal rank and file members would vote in a democratic process it wasn’t ,Dutton lied to the Victorian Liberal rank and file members.
It was a dictatorship
Scott, you do know the Speaker sets the date of by-elections don’t you?
Remember Tu Le.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 5:48 pm
Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) tore into Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) for suggesting the United States undergo a “national divorce” — a euphemism for Republican-controlled states seceding from the country, akin to the South in during the Civil War. Romney gave the comments to Utah reporters in Salt Lake City, according to Deseret.
“Sen. Mitt Romney on Tuesday firmly denounced Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s recent call for a ‘national divorce,’ harkening back on what happened in the U.S. during the Civil War,” reported Katie McKellar. “‘You know, I think Abraham Lincoln dealt with that kind of insanity,’ the Utah Republican told reporters during a brief press availability during his visit with lawmakers at the Utah Capitol in Salt Lake City. ‘We’re not going to divide the country. It’s united we stand, divided we fall.
—————————————————————————————
MTG is really just a sovereign citizen cooker.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 7:30 pm
Scott, you do know the Speaker sets the date of by-elections don’t you?
Remember Tu Le.
————————-
What has that got to do with Peter Dutton lying to the Victorian Liberal party rank and file members , claiming they would have democratic vote, which they weren’t allowed to vote at all
to top it off Peter Dutton voted who wasnt Victorian
Remember Sussan Ley – who avoided a preselection process, even though the locals wanted one.
Timing wasn’t an excuse there.
Remember Katherine Deves, personally chosen by Scott Morrison over the wishes of the local branches.
Remember how the preselection process for NSW Federal seats was allowed to run down to the wire, so that Morrison could appoint (several) people he wanted over those the electorate wanted.
Rex Douglassays:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 6:55 pm
So, it’s revealed today that Lidia Thorpe was done over by Labor through dodgy donations.
_____________________
Don’t act surprised. I have been telling this blog how dodgy the Victorian ALP is for years.
It’s just another one to add to the list.
zoomster says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 7:36 pm
Remember Sussan Ley – who avoided a preselection process, even though the locals wanted one.
Timing wasn’t an excuse there.
Remember Katherine Deves, personally chosen by Scott Morrison over the wishes of the local branches.
Remember how the preselection process for NSW Federal seats was allowed to run down to the wire, so that Morrison could appoint (several) people he wanted over those the electorate wanted.
中华人民共和国
Selective Amnesia Zoomster. Some on PB have caught the illness it appears. Back to the Jungle for me.
Lars Von Trier
Could you help here in depth? What is actually the reason for the Aston bi-election?
And the reason for the reason?
Also Scott Morrison own preselection , where he and Newsltd hacks did the dirty on Michael Towkie
Taylormade says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 7:37 pm
Rex Douglassays:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 6:55 pm
So, it’s revealed today that Lidia Thorpe was done over by Labor through dodgy donations.
_____________________
Don’t act surprised. I have been telling this blog how dodgy the Victorian ALP is for years.
It’s just another one to add to the list.
——————————————
LOL Taylormade
so laz thinks it is some how terible when a labor candadate incabramatter gets little support for the branches but ashayes seems close to fairfieeld mayor desbite being alabor mp but yet it is okay that dutton can install a candadate in aston labor still has to get a candadate in fairfield
I would have thought it prudent of Milton Dick to schedule the by-election in Aston as early as possible.
The people there would seem to have been unrepresented for long enough, if anecdotal commentary about Tudge’s recent dedication to the task is to be believed.
The bloke seems to have been missing in action since well before last year’s election.
Re Yabba @6:54.
The predicted number of recipients affected could be not determined with such precision, or even +/- 10% or 20%. It would be like saying the unemployment rate was 3.7435789%.
If the number had been calculated by someone familiar with statistics, they wouldn’t say 866,857. They’d more likely say something like “860,000 plus or minus 100,000” to give an indication of the level of uncertainty inherent in any such estimate.
Then, of course, the number is ridiculously high, as previous posters have pointed out. It looks dodgy as all get-out.
Enough Already: sorry, I needed to be away from my computer for a while.
“…but do you think there is a line to be drawn beyond which speech or artistic expression can be inappropriate? ”
Yes, if it promotes illegal acts, is defamatory, or seeks to incite mob violence or the like. From what I’ve read, Susan Abulhawa’s comments don’t really fall into any of these categories.
“…where do we put this particular claim, that Zelenskyy promotes Nazism, Zionism and is a warmonger, despite being Jewish, committing no crimes against Israel’s neighbours, and leading a country which was invaded and occupied rather than the reverse – and whose existence depends upon support from Western audiences to whom this propagandist is sermonising?”
I don’t see her as a propagandist. She sounds like a silly, prejudiced fool. But many creative artists are whack jobs about political stuff: it goes with the territory.
Of course, one might well ask why the Adelaide Festival would wish to invite someone like her to speak, and they are now deservedly suffering the embarrassment of having their Ukrainian star turns withdraw from the event, which surely they must have anticipated might happen.
I also note the strong Streisand effect here. If Minter Ellison hadn’t withdrawn its funding from Writers’ Week, and if the Ukranian writers hadn’t pulled out, only the cognoscenti would ever even have heard of Ms Abulhawa. But now…
I’ve had a busy day today. But during a short, enforced wait I did catch a few minutes of the NPC and learned that I can now recognise many of the journalists and their affiliation and perspective before they ask their question. Yay me. But among other topics Albanese spoke about sovereignty. Australia, the UK, and the USA are and will remain sovereign, together. I thought, “That’s a flexible word.” Then later today while driving I noticed a business advertising itself as “Sovereign Funerals” and realised that “sovereign” means whatever you need it to mean, if even the dead can be sovereign. (And of course, the term “Sovereign Funerals” lends itself to political discourse as well.)
Marles playing battleship?
I hope Boerwar gets a go at navigating for a bit. Should be fun.
Seriously, Rex, what are you talking about?
A metro from the Western Sydney Airport to the CBD would be horrible. All stations at that distance going via woop woop. How long is it going to take. International tourists will love it. 10+ hours on a flight and 2 hours on the metro to your CBD hotel. And unlike Europe you didnt even get a cheap airfare for the privilege of being dumped miles from your hotel with slow public transport. Or take a taxi and spend $200 on fare plus tolls of $50. Got to love Liberal planning.
Dr John says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 7:43 pm
Lars Von Trier
Could you help here in depth? What is actually the reason for the Aston bi-election?
And the reason for the reason?
___________________
Quite clearly the reason for the bi-election was the retirement of the great Alan Tudge.
Rarely has any other rubble pile streaked across the sky dragging scandal and disgrace in the same manner.
Remember, if you can’t be great, be terrible. There’s nothing worse than average.
So Taylormade is concerned about dodgy happenings in the Victorian ALP.
I wonder how concerned he is about dodgy happenings in the Morrison Government?
Have you been keeping across the Robodeby Royal Commission Taylormade?
So no The Voice to executive government.
So – what’s the point? Might as well as set up a letters to the Editor / letters to Parliament service.
Thanks for explaining it to him nath.
Remember Tu Le.
‘wranslide says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 7:59 pm
Marles playing battleship?
I hope Boerwar gets a go at navigating for a bit. Should be fun.’
———————————————–
Pure comic genius!
Here is something else to get your giggles going:
https://navalinstitute.com.au/chinas-massive-naval-build-up/
I hear China already has potential bases on the central coast and hunter and according to the not so secret 500 year invasion plan it will start on May 21 when the local protectorate jingo roughrider forces are distracted.
Both Labor and Liberal game preselections.
When your rump parties – you can’t take the risk of the crank n’vile actually getting to pick the candidate.
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 8:10 pm
‘wranslide says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 7:59 pm
Marles playing battleship?
I hope Boerwar gets a go at navigating for a bit. Should be fun.’
———————————————–
Pure comic genius!
Here is something else to get your giggles going:
~~~
Bon voyage Boerwar. Chuck some wombats at them with Captain Charles Marles.
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 8:11 pm
Both Labor and Liberal game preselections.
When your rump parties – you can’t take the risk of the crank n’vile actually getting to pick the candidate
~~~
Problem is Lars that those large and in charge are often not that good either.
nath says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 8:04 pm
Dr John says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 7:43 pm
Lars Von Trier
Could you help here in depth? What is actually the reason for the Aston bi-election?
And the reason for the reason?
–=======——
Quite clearly the reason for …..
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
nath you may have just let your guard down!
Responding on behalf of Lars !!!!!
wranslide says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 8:12 pm
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 8:10 pm
‘wranslide says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 7:59 pm
Marles playing battleship?
I hope Boerwar gets a go at navigating for a bit. Should be fun.’
———————————————–
Pure comic genius!
Here is something else to get your giggles going:
~~~
Bon voyage Boerwar. Chuck some wombats at them with Captain Charles Marles.
=============================================
Side splitting stuff! So funny! Witty!
Watermelon says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 6:06 pm
Got anything to say about the Chinese armed ‘fishing’ vessels invading Philippines territorial waters?
*crickets*?
I would say that it’s happening a bloody long way from Australia and that it’s a matter for China and the Philippines. Marles playing battleship in another hemisphere is not how I want my taxes spent.
———————————————————————————————
Given that Australia’s minerals traverse that region daily to many different Asian nations including China, you might want to reconsider that …….. thought. Your descriptions suggest a distinct lack of knowledge regarding Australia’s and Asia’s regional interests more broadly, not to mention the defence and economic links between these countries. Other than China, I can’t recall other nations stealing disputed internationally islands and militarising them in our region. China’s message at least is unambiguous and it’s not friendly.
Lars
Helen Haines’ pre selection – I have been told – was also gamed.
And, of course, there were splits amongst the Teals when candidates didn’t accept their preselection losses.
There have also been reports of similar incidents when it comes to the Greens (a local Green had a preselection re-run when she failed to get preselected).
I’m surprised you know so little about politics.
True that wranslide.
Who would want to be in parly? The money is high enough to attract the loons and too low for people in high paying roles/careers.
Who would willingly disclose their skeletons in the closet to party vetting? Basically doing anything controversial or embarrassing from the age of 12 is almost disqualifying.
Look at Misha Zelensky – wrote some stupid lads novel when he was 20 odd – and that was used against him to keep him out of Parly. Yet his writing on Ukraine has been first rate (note to MacArthur – pls don’t do another 20 posts now) so obviously talented.
Watermelon says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 6:10 pm
Like seriously does Spratley bloody Island actually matter to Australia’s national security? A few bits of sand and pebbles? Why are we there? What the hell is this?
——————————————————————————————-
Now you’re just sounding intellectually diminished.
Dr John, any Alphonse stories?
‘Cronus says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 8:19 pm
Watermelon says:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 6:06 pm
Got anything to say about the Chinese armed ‘fishing’ vessels invading Philippines territorial waters?
*crickets*?
I would say that it’s happening a bloody long way from Australia and that it’s a matter for China and the Philippines. Marles playing battleship in another hemisphere is not how I want my taxes spent.
———————————————————————————————
Given that Australia’s minerals traverse that region daily to many different Asian nations including China, you might want to reconsider that …….. thought. Your descriptions suggest a distinct lack of knowledge regarding Australia’s and Asia’s regional interests more broadly, not to mention the defence and economic links between these countries. Other than China, I can’t recall other nations stealing disputed internationally islands and militarising them in our region. China’s message at least is unambiguous and it’s not friendly.’
==========================================
Um… these are the folk that want to turn the ADF into a Light Mobile Force (LMF…).
Lars Von Trier says:
When your rump parties………………..
_______________________________________________
I know the feeling, especially after a kamikaze hot vindaloo
The Lars Team has exhumed one of the favourites – Tu Le. Sadly she was not preselected due to HQ parachuting Kristina Keneally in as candidate.
Fast forward 12 months and the well connected (cf Rupert Murdoch) Roshana Campbell is parachuted into Aston. Do we get a tut tut? A ‘she doesn’t live in the electorate’ jibe? A smear about some inner city silver tail being foisted onto an outer mortgage belt?
No.