Polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)

Two new polls find Labor still with a commanding lead, but with Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings coming off their earlier peak.

The Age/Herald brings the monthly Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention, which has Labor down two on the primary vote to 40%, the Coalition up two to 31%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation down one to 5%. No two-party preferred is reported, but this would pan out to around 58-42 based on preference flows from last year, in from around 60-40 last time. Anthony Albanese’s approval rating (very good plus good) is down four on last month to 56%, with disapproval (very poor plus poor) up five to 30%; Peter Dutton is up one to 29% and down one to 45%; and Anthony Albanese’s lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister is 55-23, in from 55-20. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604. Further results published today including a finding that 50% expect economic conditions to worsen over the coming year, compared with 18% for improvement and 24% for staying the same.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll, which does not exclude undecided from its voting intention numbers, has Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30% on the primary vote, both unchanged on a fortnight ago. The Greens are down three from an anomalous peak last time to 14% and One Nation are steady on 6%, with undecided at 8%. The 2PP+ measure had Labor down four to 51%, the Coalition up two to 42% and undecided up three to 8%. As noted in the previous post, Anthony Albanese’s approval is down two on a month ago to 53%, and his disapproval is up three to 34%. The full report, featuring questions on economic issues and interest rate rises, is here.

The Victorian Liberal Party’s administrative committee has as expected endorsed barrister Roshena Campbell as its candidate for the April 1 Aston by-election. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Campbell received 13 votes, with former state upper house MP Cathrine Burnett-Wake and oncologist Ranjana Srivastava on three each.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,968 thoughts on “Polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)”

Comments Page 57 of 60
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  1. C@t

    OC and MB and others may be hard at work figuring out how to dodge the supertax.
    History says the smarties are usually pretty quick finding a workaround new rules.

  2. Rossmcgsays:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 4:06 pm

    The complaint now is likely to be “what about my franking credit refunds, they are all used up!”

  3. Will Albo try the same trick with S3?
    Take it to an election and watch the coalition campaign on giving big tax cuts to high earners.

  4. ‘Arky says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 3:57 pm

    While it didn’t seem that strange to me that Kathryn Campbell would be kept around in some capacity until after the RC, it does seem strange that she’s continued to apparently have real responsibility. Did she manage to convince someone in Labor that Robodebt wasn’t her fault, nothing to do with her? Because that does not seem like it is going to hold up.’
    ————————————-
    One of Labor’s policy settings was to restore the APS. This involved intera alia, NOT sacking a slew of secretaries on day one. So they did not do so.

    This was an excellent move by Labor. It also led to unforeseen circumstances.

    One finagled himself out when he came to the conclusion that his services were no longer wanted.

    Campbell was first replaced as secretary but remained on the books on secretary’s pay, doing nothing.

    Rather than pay a secertary to do nothing she was shuffled into AUKUS something or other.
    The alternative to sacking secretaries willy nilly is to have a process, preferably a hands-off process. Secretaries were effectively subject to an almost random situation with zero job security and no real access to unfair dismissal.

    Apart from the Bludger Court de Kangourou, Campbell has been convicted of nothing.
    Campbell has been through no process in relation to the APS Code of Conduct.
    Campbell has been convicted of no criminal offence.

    My guess, FWIW, is that Labor is content to let the RC Report come in and see what it says. It might just provide the leverage they need. Other than that, who knows?

  5. Alpha Zero @ #2804 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 4:17 pm

    Will Albo try the same trick with S3?
    Take it to an election and watch the coalition campaign on giving big tax cuts to high earners.

    I wouldn’t say no. 😀

    I wonder if the same scenario may apply to the Voice? Get the Naysayers to put their positions out into the public square, give them enough rope, then reel them in. 🙂

  6. Listened to Raf Epstein on the local ABC radio. He had Jane Hume on.
    “Broken promise Broken promise” Couldn’t even accept that defending the wealthy might not go down well in Aston when Raf put it to her. Comments after not complimentary to her.

  7. ‘Socrates says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 4:37 pm

    Nobody even vaguely impartial is seriously arguing with Labor’s super cap plan.
    David Crowe thinks it makes sense both economically and politically.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-s-super-plan-a-political-wedge-he-can-use-again-20230228-p5co9j.html‘
    —————————–
    One of the lines doing the rounds goes to Albanese’s modus operandi.

    The Super Cap has the main features. Put it out there. Fly a few kites. Commit to nothing. Allow the ratbag right to overplay their hands. Death tax, anyone? Get the cognoscenti to ruminate in public on the pros and cons of various settings.
    Land on something vaguely sensible. Give people some time to organize themselves before it is implemented.
    Get it done.

  8. For those of you playing along at home – The follow on has been enforced 297 in test cricket. 232 times the team in the lead has won. 60 matches have been drawn. And only 4 times have trailing team won. So a little over 1% of all times.

  9. The rich always shout the loudest when they get anything took away from them. Poor millionaires. Maybe we should set up a Go Fund me page for them.

  10. ‘steve davis says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 4:50 pm

    The rich always shout the loudest when they get anything took away from them.’
    ————————————
    Really?

  11. laughtong @ #2811 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 4:48 pm

    Listened to Raf Epstein on the local ABC radio. He had Jane Hume on.
    “Broken promise Broken promise” Couldn’t even accept that defending the wealthy might not go down well in Aston when Raf put it to her. Comments after not complimentary to her.

    They’re being very badly advised these days in the Coalition. Tactics are basically twofold:
    1. Not enough detail
    2. Broken promise

    Not very nimble thinkers are they?

  12. Themunz @ #2809 Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 4:30 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 4:27 pm

    Cayman Islands is still an option:).

    You’ve got to wonder why the individual with $544 Million in his SMSF hadn’t done anything more creative with it? Like that, or via any number of other micro countries with no other source of income except other people’s dirty money?

  13. Boerwar

    On modus operandi, Albanese is doing it right. Promise low then exceed expectations. The super cap unarguably improves fairness and efficiency of the tax system. And it gets better over time.

    Just as Howard (and Morrison’s) tax cuts booby-trapped future budgets, inflation will see the super cap gradually get more effective too. Long term it gets better and better as policy. Yet nobody can argue with it.

    If the super cap approach works, a similar approach could be taken with negative geared property. Set it at a $4 million cap. Again – who could argue with a limit that could buy two Sydney houses?

    Setting high caps is much less risky than fiddling with marginal rates. I like it.

  14. Setting high caps is much less risky than fiddling with marginal rates. I like it.

    As smart as when the Coalition decided to use the word ‘levy’ instead of ‘tax’. 🙂

  15. Socrates says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 4:37 pm
    Nobody even vaguely impartial is seriously arguing with Labor’s super cap plan.
    David Crowe thinks it makes sense both economically and politically.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-s-super-plan-a-political-wedge-he-can-use-again-20230228-p5co9j.html
    ———————————————————————————————

    A prudent budgetary move combined with prudent politics, exactly as expected from a calm and mature government. They are two steps ahead of the Coalition every time.

  16. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 4:52 pm
    ‘steve davis says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 4:50 pm

    The rich always shout the loudest when they get anything took away from them.’
    ————————————
    Really?
    _________________________________

    Anecdotally only, but the rich can afford large and very efficient PA systems.

    As we are learning from the Robodebt RC, the non-rich (and the downright poor) have much weaker PA systems and have had no training in using them.

  17. I agree that Albo set a low bar and has few misses so far, the national ICAC was perhaps one of the higher bars and accounts for two of the most significant misses (timing and secrecy).

    I’m not sure we are seeing a lot of exceeding the incredibly low bars set.

  18. ‘TPOF says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 5:02 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 4:52 pm
    ‘steve davis says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 4:50 pm

    The rich always shout the loudest when they get anything took away from them.’
    ————————————
    Really?
    _________________________________

    Anecdotally only, but the rich can afford large and very efficient PA systems.’
    =======================================================

    Ah. Yep.

  19. People just don’t get how much Labor is getting done. This is just in one policy domain:

    1. Labor appoints a woman, Kerry Schott, to conduct a review of the Inland Rail Project.
    2. Labor appoints a woman, Deborah Brennan, to conduct an inquiry into the childcare system.
    3. Labor appoints a woman, Lynelle Briggs, to conduct a jobs-for-the-boys inquiry into the Public Service Board appointments.
    4. Labor’s $300 million boost to the arts will include measures to mandate fair pay and workplace safety in the arts industry.
    5. Labor funds $1.1 billion to bring forward 180,000 free TAFE positions. The conditions include encouraging women male dominated industries including into construction jobs.
    6. Labor fund aged care wages increase: $3.4 billion a year. The large majority of people in aged care are women. The large majority of aged care workers are women.
    7. Labor appoints Christine Nixon to undertake an inquiry into sex trafficking.
    8. Labor initiates a national policy discussion on policies to make dating apps more safe.
    9. Eight out of ten senior diplomatic posts filled with female appointees.
    10. First ever ambassador for gender equity appointed.
    11. A woman (Susan Kenny) is appointed as acting president to clean out the AAT.
    12. After eons of granting a large majority of grants to male researchers, the NHMRC is to award grants worth $923 million on a roughly fifty/fifty basis.
    13. 14 women and 9 men in the Victorian Labor Government Cabinet.
    14. Respect in the Workplace legislation.
    15. Gender equity is a core objective of the new IR legislation.
    16. Katy Gallagher: $5m over five years to boost the number of women in public office. The women in public office grant is designed to encourage – and prepare – more women to run for elections at all levels.
    17. Making good on rescuing Australian women and children from hell hole camps in Syria.
    18. Vic Labor supports the Diamonds, filling the ethical and financial hole left vacamt by a certain commercial interest.
    19. The Government today announced the appointment of Adjunct Professor Debora Picone AO as Chair of the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Review Reference Committee.
    20. National Plan to End Violence against Women and Children 2022–2032
    21. Extension of paid parental leave in the 2022 Budget at a cost of $532 million.
    22. Ms Robyn Kruk AO to lead an independent review of the regulatory settings relating to health practitioner registration and qualification recognition for overseas trained health professionals and international students who have studied in Australia
    23. Moves afoot to rescue 20 Australian women and around 40 children from a Turkish internment camp.
    24. Jayne Jagot appointed to Australia’s High Court, creating first majority-female bench.
    25. Ms Falkingham will be the first permanent female Chief Executive of the NDIA.
    26. Federal Labor has appointed three eminently well qualified women to the Climate Council. This offsets the undue representation of businessmen on the Council.
    27. Federal Indigenous Affairs Minister Burney supports the development of a separate National Strategy to Address Violence against Indigenous Women. The latter will be heavily involved in the design of the Strategy.
    28. The Victorian government on Sunday announced it would spend $270 million to recruit and train thousands of new nurses and midwives under the scheme.
    29. Labor has more female MPs than male MPs. (The Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments were not within a bull’s roar of this achievement.)
    30. Labor is fully committed to implementing all of the Jenkins Report recommendations. (The Morrison Government implemented a view recommendations but basically sat on the vast majority of the Report’s recommendations.)
    31. High levels of women in the ministry. (Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments had far, far fewer women in the ministry).
    32. Labor gave a direction to the Fair Work Commission to specifically take into account the gender pay gap along with power to make gender specific determinations to close the gap. (The Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments had one universal ambitions: to damp down any real wage growth and showed zero interest in closing the gender pay gap.)
    33. Labor intervened directly in the minimum wage decision which disproportionately benefits the lowest paid workers: women. (Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison did not do this.)
    34. In recent departmental secretary appointments: Labor appointed three out of the four women. (Morrison’s last five secretarial appointments in 2019 involved a net loss of three women.)
    35. Labor is setting the tone by promising to make boards, such as the Reserve Bank Board more representative.
    36. Three Labor women ministers to lead aspects of the skills and jobs summit that relate to women’s participation, women upskilling and closing the wages gap.
    37. Labor has avoided school holidays for sitting days.
    38. Labor has instituted humane sitting hours on sitting days.
    39. Morrison Government sat on the Report on the National Stakeholder Consultation for a Ten Year Domestic Violence Plan. Labor has released the Report with expedition.
    40. Labor introduces paid domestic violence leave legislation
    41. Ten days domestic violence leave for casual workers.
    42. Submission to the Fair Work Commission on pay in the Aged Care industry. Four out of five workers in that industry are women.
    43. Moves to legislate on coercive control.Not one of those eleven were in place in the past nine years.
    44. Removes the ban on military and public service staff from engaging in certain “woke” charity, cultural and diversity events, imposed by former minister Peter Dutton last year.
    45. Catherine Holmes is appointed Royal Commissioner for the Robodebt Royal Commission.

  20. Integrity’s one line baits.
    Thorpe, yeah nah.
    S 3, uh…
    Super… nah nah
    Fossil Cartel… ooooh yes.
    The plain fact of the matter is that the Greens are delaying substantial progress as we post.
    Stunt. Delay. Obstruct.
    Labor builds.
    The Greens block.
    The Coalition destroys.

  21. ‘WeWantPaul says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 5:12 pm

    I don’t understand how appointing competent woman is an achievement. It is 2023 not 1963.’
    ————————————————————-
    Well, of course WWP doesn’t get. What a surprise.

  22. Incidentally, using the average predicted ACCU price of $32.43 AUD, if Woodside was feeling generous it could purchase all the projected offset costs to comply with Safeguard for *every single participant* out to 2030 (205 MTco2-, ~$6.6bn aud) with last year's profits pic.twitter.com/buey79ka4b— Ketan Joshi (@KetanJ0) February 27, 2023

    gamed…

  23. “ The 2021 census reports that nationally, Australian Pentecostalism declined by 4,700 people – or 2% – since 2016. And a Christian Research Association report shows the strongest drop was among those aged 15-34.”

    “Reverend Dr Philip Hughes, a research fellow at the Christian Research Association, told us, “The decline in Pentecostals has been greater among females than males, with the female proportion dropping from 56% in 2011 to 54% in 2021.”

    Perhaps it’s causation, perhaps it’s correlation, but it’s interesting that the drop in young people and females attending Pentecostal churches isn’t dissimilar to the drop in numbers of these two categories in terms of support for the Liberals.

    https://theconversation.com/were-told-pentecostal-churches-like-hillsong-are-growing-in-australia-but-theyre-not-anymore-is-there-a-gender-problem-199413

  24. Why hasn’t Kathryn Campbell been moved on by the Labor Gov?

    Because sensibly they shouldn’t.

    Andrew Podger’s report recommendations to the Robodebt RC, if accepted by Gov, offers a likely route to secure her exit from the APS:

    Recommendation B6: That, in the event the Royal Commission recommends that there should be an investigation whether current or former Secretaries or APS employees have breached the Code of Conduct, the Prime Minister be asked to refer the matter to the APS Commissioner for investigation under s 41A or s 41B of the PS Act.

    Source: https://robodebt.royalcommission.gov.au/system/files/2023-02/andrew-podger-report-to-robodebt-royal-commission.pdf

    A very good read by the way ….

  25. “Well, of course WWP doesn’t get. What a surprise.”

    I’ve worked with a lot of very low value colleagues who try to sell barely competent BAU as magnificent achievements. Fools and liars the lot of them, only believed by idiots

    To be impressed by the ordinary and unremarkable is a sign of even greater mediocrity. Pathetic.

  26. Hostile reaction on Radio Liberal 2GB, but what you’d expect, I’ve never heard a talkback caller on 2GB that was supportive of Labor.
    Smart stuff from Albanese and Chalmers, especially boxing in Dutton and Angus Taylor to fighting the next election on preserving generous tax concessions for wealthy people.

  27. ‘WeWantPaul says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 5:18 pm

    “Well, of course WWP doesn’t get. What a surprise.”

    I’ve worked with a lot of very low value colleagues who try to sell barely competent BAU as magnificent achievements. Fools and liars the lot of them, only believed by idiots

    To be impressed by the ordinary and unremarkable is a sign of even greater mediocrity. Pathetic.’
    ——————————————-
    To not be impressed by the truly remarkable is a sign of incompetent mediocrity. Truly pathetic.

    One of the main reasons there was a revolt vote against the Morrison Government was the systematic bastardy towards women. Labor comes in and voila:

    1. Labor appoints a woman, Kerry Schott, to conduct a review of the Inland Rail Project.
    2. Labor appoints a woman, Deborah Brennan, to conduct an inquiry into the childcare system.
    3. Labor appoints a woman, Lynelle Briggs, to conduct a jobs-for-the-boys inquiry into the Public Service Board appointments.
    4. Labor’s $300 million boost to the arts will include measures to mandate fair pay and workplace safety in the arts industry.
    5. Labor funds $1.1 billion to bring forward 180,000 free TAFE positions. The conditions include encouraging women male dominated industries including into construction jobs.
    6. Labor fund aged care wages increase: $3.4 billion a year. The large majority of people in aged care are women. The large majority of aged care workers are women.
    7. Labor appoints Christine Nixon to undertake an inquiry into sex trafficking.
    8. Labor initiates a national policy discussion on policies to make dating apps more safe.
    9. Eight out of ten senior diplomatic posts filled with female appointees.
    10. First ever ambassador for gender equity appointed.
    11. A woman (Susan Kenny) is appointed as acting president to clean out the AAT.
    12. After eons of granting a large majority of grants to male researchers, the NHMRC is to award grants worth $923 million on a roughly fifty/fifty basis.
    13. 14 women and 9 men in the Victorian Labor Government Cabinet.
    14. Respect in the Workplace legislation.
    15. Gender equity is a core objective of the new IR legislation.
    16. Katy Gallagher: $5m over five years to boost the number of women in public office. The women in public office grant is designed to encourage – and prepare – more women to run for elections at all levels.
    17. Making good on rescuing Australian women and children from hell hole camps in Syria.
    18. Vic Labor supports the Diamonds, filling the ethical and financial hole left vacamt by a certain commercial interest.
    19. The Government today announced the appointment of Adjunct Professor Debora Picone AO as Chair of the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Review Reference Committee.
    20. National Plan to End Violence against Women and Children 2022–2032
    21. Extension of paid parental leave in the 2022 Budget at a cost of $532 million.
    22. Ms Robyn Kruk AO to lead an independent review of the regulatory settings relating to health practitioner registration and qualification recognition for overseas trained health professionals and international students who have studied in Australia
    23. Moves afoot to rescue 20 Australian women and around 40 children from a Turkish internment camp.
    24. Jayne Jagot appointed to Australia’s High Court, creating first majority-female bench.
    25. Ms Falkingham will be the first permanent female Chief Executive of the NDIA.
    26. Federal Labor has appointed three eminently well qualified women to the Climate Council. This offsets the undue representation of businessmen on the Council.
    27. Federal Indigenous Affairs Minister Burney supports the development of a separate National Strategy to Address Violence against Indigenous Women. The latter will be heavily involved in the design of the Strategy.
    28. The Victorian government on Sunday announced it would spend $270 million to recruit and train thousands of new nurses and midwives under the scheme.
    29. Labor has more female MPs than male MPs. (The Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments were not within a bull’s roar of this achievement.)
    30. Labor is fully committed to implementing all of the Jenkins Report recommendations. (The Morrison Government implemented a view recommendations but basically sat on the vast majority of the Report’s recommendations.)
    31. High levels of women in the ministry. (Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments had far, far fewer women in the ministry).
    32. Labor gave a direction to the Fair Work Commission to specifically take into account the gender pay gap along with power to make gender specific determinations to close the gap. (The Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments had one universal ambitions: to damp down any real wage growth and showed zero interest in closing the gender pay gap.)
    33. Labor intervened directly in the minimum wage decision which disproportionately benefits the lowest paid workers: women. (Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison did not do this.)
    34. In recent departmental secretary appointments: Labor appointed three out of the four women. (Morrison’s last five secretarial appointments in 2019 involved a net loss of three women.)
    35. Labor is setting the tone by promising to make boards, such as the Reserve Bank Board more representative.
    36. Three Labor women ministers to lead aspects of the skills and jobs summit that relate to women’s participation, women upskilling and closing the wages gap.
    37. Labor has avoided school holidays for sitting days.
    38. Labor has instituted humane sitting hours on sitting days.
    39. Morrison Government sat on the Report on the National Stakeholder Consultation for a Ten Year Domestic Violence Plan. Labor has released the Report with expedition.
    40. Labor introduces paid domestic violence leave legislation
    41. Ten days domestic violence leave for casual workers.
    42. Submission to the Fair Work Commission on pay in the Aged Care industry. Four out of five workers in that industry are women.
    43. Moves to legislate on coercive control.Not one of those eleven were in place in the past nine years.
    44. Removes the ban on military and public service staff from engaging in certain “woke” charity, cultural and diversity events, imposed by former minister Peter Dutton last year.
    45. Catherine Holmes is appointed Royal Commissioner for the Robodebt Royal Commission.

  28. rossmcg: “So the super supertax is a thing. From 2025”

    In the grand scheme of budgets and deficits, once implemented into legislation, the savings are immediately realised. One or two years really doesn’t make much difference.

  29. ‘Snappy Tom says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 5:21 pm

    steve davis says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 4:50 pm

    The rich always shout the loudest when they get anything took away from them. Poor millionaires. Maybe we should set up a Go Fund me page for them.
    ____________

    A well-informed Bludger directed our attention to The Shovel’s donations page yesterday…

    https://www.theshovel.com.au/2023/02/27/sponsor-a-disadvantaged-millionaire/‘
    ———————————–
    good one.

  30. ‘BK says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 5:26 pm

    The Commissioner is schooling Keenan.’
    ——————————
    Judicious lack of memory. Judicious lack of curiosity. Judicious reliance on his wonderful advice from his department. Judicious mediocrity.

  31. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 5:09 pm

    Integrity’s one line baits.
    Thorpe, yeah nah.
    S 3, uh…
    Super… nah nah
    Fossil Cartel… ooooh yes.
    The plain fact of the matter is that the Greens are delaying substantial progress as we post.
    Stunt. Delay. Obstruct.
    Labor builds.
    The Greens block.
    The Coalition destroys.
    ____________

    I do need to correct you re Integrity and Super. It’s “I want to keep my billion gajillion dollar super account, damnit!”

  32. As mentioned earlier, this video of Angus Taylor championing the actions taken today by Labor will not help the Coalition’s cause one bit. Albeit that Taylor’s opinion is essentially irrelevant anyway, it takes even the slightest sting out of the Coalition’s ridiculous argument. This only makes the clown look like a joker.

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/superannuation/video-of-angus-taylor-backing-in-concessional-tax-hikes-emerges-as-changes-slammed/news-story/8acd7d2ead12dc4f98ba800ee875dcb8

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