Yesterday’s announcement by former cabinet minister Alan Tudge of his resignation brings into view the first by-election of the Albanese government, for the highly marginal Melbourne seat of Aston. The date is yet to be determined, but will presumably be set later this month or early the next for a date in April or May. Tudge held on by 2.8% last year in the face of a 7.3% swing, part of a pattern of poor results for the Liberals in traditional areas of strength for the party in the city’s eastern suburbs that was repeated at the state election in November, together with a swing the other way in Labor strongholds in the west and north.
Aston has a place in by-election folklore as the seat that signposted the Howard government’s return to electoral health in April 2001, when Tudge’s predecessor Chris Pearce defended a 4.2% margin against a 3.7% swing. Labor held the seat for the first two terms after its creation in 1984, but it became progressively stronger for the Liberals after the Victorian landslip that cost Labor nine seats in the state in 1990. Pearce’s retirement in 2010 raised Labor hopes that the seat might provide a gain to balance expected losses in New South Wales and Queensland, but Tudge held out against a 3.3% swing by 1.8% and increased his margin at each of the next three elections.
My results page for the seat for the federal election can be viewed here, and features an interactive booth results map that opens if you click the “activate” button at the bottom of the page. As can be seen, Labor won most of the booths around Boronia in the electorate’s north-east, but not be enough to balance the Liberals’ dominance in Wantirna to the west and Rowville in the south.
Tudge’s announcement was inevitably met with a flurry of speculation as to who might run for the Liberals, with suggestions that Josh Frydenberg might use the seat as a vehicle for a comeback soon shot down. There has been no mention that I’m aware of as to who Labor might endorse, but The Australian reports the unsurprising news that senior Liberals want a “high-profile female candidate”, which they will presumably secure without recourse to a problematic rank-and-file preselection, which are rarely held for by-elections.
Samantha Maiden of news.com.au wrote on Twitter yesterday that the Liberal front-runner was Roshena Campbell, barrister, Melbourne councillor and wife of News Corp journalist James Campbell, but The Australian’s report names a number of other contenders: Cathrine Burnett-Wake, who served in the state’s Legislative Council last year but failed to win preselection for the November election; Sharn Coombes, a criminal barrister; Andrew Asten, a former staffer to Tudge; and Irene Ling, director of a property investment company.
Given the state of the polls, the by-election presents Labor with a seemingly golden opportunity to bag a handy seventy-eighth seat, and the Liberals with the corresponding danger of a morale-sapping loss. However, Antony Green offered some counterpoints to David Crowe of The Age, noting the Liberal vote was suppressed in the seat by the low profile kept by Tudge during the election campaign as a result of his ministerial difficulties and campaign resources being concentrated elsewhere. I would also add that history is against Labor to the extent that it has tended to have disappointing results in by-elections held the year after taking office:
• The Parramatta by-election of 22 September 1973 followed a bumpy opening year for the Whitlam government, so its failure to poach the seat was perhaps not a surprise. Nonetheless, the 7% swing to the Liberals was presumably in excess of expectations. The winning candidate was a young Philip Ruddock, later to move to the safer seats of Dundas and Berowra and to achieve a high profile as the Howard government’s Immigration Minister.
• Despite the stratospheric popularity of Bob Hawke during his first year as Prime Minister, Labor failed to make ground in any of the six by-elections held in that time, suffering a particularly disappointing failure in the marginal Brisbane seat of Moreton, where the Liberals were defending a margin of 1.6%.
• Labor was generally thought to have a shot in Gippsland when Peter McGuaran vacated it in the wake of the Howard government’s defeat, but a dominant position in opinion polls again failed to translate at a by-election, with Darren Chester retaining the seat for the Nationals with a surprisingly robust swing of 6.1%.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of Aston. The general discussion thread continues here.
Kevin Bonham’s view is that the seat is unlikely to go to Labor.
He also mentioned a link to an ABC story that Josh wont run.
There’s hope in my heart, but realistic realism that the status quo will remain in place.
As I posted in the open thread the counter factuals in my mind are; the Federal Libs and Vic State Libs have almost no one who can assist a local candidate to campaign, the LOTO can not step foot in Victoria, the Libs have had their fund raising power base gutted by the Teals, the Greens just pissed off their own voters, State Labor is riding high in Victoria, and Federal Labor are doing alright.
The Aston margin would already bake in most anger at Tudge for his scandals. This is churchy Liberal territory not upper class money Liberal territory like Kooyong so his affair played very badly but also personal to him. I think the Libs get many of those votes back and they hold the seat easily enough.
Dutton says he’ll personally come down, trying to fight the narrative that he is electoral poison in Vic. Aston is about as Dutton friendly territory as there is in Victoria probably and I bet he’s got internal polling to give comfort too. If Dutton campaigns and the Libs lose…
Interesting that you mention Ashton is a churchy liberal seat. That is kind of similar to Dickson, PDs seat. The south end of Dickson has a high density of pentecostal and some of more fringe protestant churches. I worked a polling booth at the south end in 2019 and it broke 2:1 towards PD, even though the final seat wide result was closer to 55/45.
So PD may focus on those areas in Ashton.
Aston is also one of the whitest seats in metro Melbourne, it has a distinct “vanilla” feel about it all around, devoid of culture and diversity. It is more reminiscent of middle-suburban Brisbane than Melbourne – although with many more rainy days and less sunshine. It actually had very few cases during the early days of the pandemic, and its people would not have been impressed with the lockdown, especially considering there was little of interest within a 5-km radius. Labor would do well just to get a status quo result there.
The seat of Aston is interesting in that the boundaries align with the Local government boundaries of the city of Knox. The vote pattern is the north is more Labor and the south is more Liberal.
The wisdom of Labor running is questionable but by not running they would effectively allow voices which are not the governments to dominate the national agenda for a month if was to be a Liberal vs “teal” type independent. There is some logic in getting the Liberal party to expend more of their limited resources on the contest too, not that I think the Liberal would not have any less hard if they were facing an unconventional opponent (aka a local Indie).
The problem with some of the Liberals’ high profile women will be they are not necessarily local and it might be seen as trying to “Kennelly” the seat.
Melbourne Mammoth – Devoid of Culture? Are you suggesting that Caribbean Gardens is not a cultural icon of Melbourne? (Yes I know it closed a few years ago)
Whoever wins the seat Aston, it will not be difficult to surpass the parliamentary “achievements” of Alan Tudge.
The legacy he leaves behind includes;
– Robodebt (plus the subsequent tax payer funded settlement).
– Engaging in ‘criminal’ conduct with the detention of an asylum seeker
– Staffer and adultery scandal (plus subsequent tax payer funded settlement).
– He was also education minister for a time. Continued receiving a cabinet minister’s salary, but was also on leave. (According to Stuart Robert anyway).
Am I missing anything? It seems he spent most energy doing the wrong thing or not actually doing his job.
Some good comments above. @Arky could be right and there may be a mean reversion with Tudge gone due to his lack of “Christian values”. That said I think the Robodebt scandal will claw back some of that reversion even though it was Tudge’s mess, the Libs are also tarred (and rightly so).
I think Labor will win it, just. The Government has shown that it is doing a great job and this will overturn any misconceptions that some voters may have had i.e. the Herald Sun and MSM said bla bla bla about the Government before the election but it hasn’t been true. Given it’s only a by-election it will be harder for the MSM to focus too much on it, so less anti-Labor propaganda i would expect.
@Dustboot, it kills me how people cannot think about the candidate they are voting for and/or unwilling to remove the rust. Horrible, incompetent people do not deserve to represent us, no matter which party they are in.
Going way out on a limb here, I predict almost no swing – less than 1%, one way or the other. Comparing Aston with other east-suburban Melbourne seats, it looks to me like the swing last year was prompted by general dislike of the Libs and Morrison in particular rather than any specific Tudge effect, and Dutton is no better liked than Morrison. Libs to win narrowly again, and to hail it as a great victory, though it won’t be.
(Though I note that a commenter on Ben’s site says that applying booth figures from the November State election, Labor would win. Interrrresting.)
surely Mr ASTEN has to be chosen as the candidate for ASTON
I assume the Liberals will preselect a high profile woman for the byelection!
So every polling expert I’ve read today has basically said that Labor has no chance of winning the seat, so in essence they shouldn’t bother even running a candidate, which to me seems illogical. At least the Labor candidate from the 2022 federal election, who achieved a fairly big swing away from Tudge, she should be allowed to have another go, if she wants to of course.
Another thought I had – what if Dutton was to announce the Liberals are not supporting a Yes vote in the Voice Referendum, how would that play out in a byelection context? Surely a Labor, or a Teal candidate, might benefit?
“Melbourne Mammoth – Devoid of Culture? Are you suggesting that Caribbean Gardens is not a cultural icon of Melbourne? (Yes I know it closed a few years ago)”
Caribbean Gardens was a cultural icon only in that it was so tastelessly tacky and the epitome of clichehood that it became notable. I’m actually glad that it’s gone – my only regret is not riding on its choo-choo train.
Otherwise, Aston is the quintessential electorate of the Howard battler and aspirational class. A mix of evangelical conservatives together with middlebrow professionals in their thirties and forties, sons and daughters of former Labor voters who themselves are mortgaged to the hilt who still dream of sending their children to private school. Which seems so cliched in itself.
“Given the state of the polls, the by-election presents Labor with a seemingly golden opportunity to bag a handy seventy-eighth seat, and the Liberals with the corresponding danger of a morale-sapping loss. However, Antony Green offered some counterpoints to David Crowe of The Age, noting the Liberal vote was suppressed in the seat by the low profile kept by Tudge during the election campaign as a result of his ministerial difficulties and campaign resources being concentrated elsewhere. I would also add that history is against Labor to the extent that it has tended to have disappointing results in by-elections held the year after taking office”
This is a golden opportunity to apply the tripartite collaborative model that worked so well at the last federal election, with ALP, Greens and local Teal candidates preferencing each other above the Liberal candidate.
I don’t know what “Mostly Interested” means when he claimed that “the Greens have just pissed of most of their voters”. I assume “MI” is talking about Senator Lidia Thorpe resigning from the Greens to go and do her own thing on First Nations matters. If this is the case, as one of many Greens members I had been expecting such a development for some time. Lidia Thorpe’s lack of support for a Yes vote in the coming referendum on a First Nations Voice to Parliament is, according to a recent poll, at variance with a large majority of Greens voters, who, like a clear majority of Australians see a “Yes” vote for a Voice to Parliament as part of our nation coming to terms with past wrongs perpertrated and ongoing First Nations disadvantages addressed in a more effective manner. The Greens Parliamentary team in saying “Yes” for a Voice to Parliament is in line with most Greens voters….
@Evan, i daresay Labor should run a high-profile candidate if last year’s doesn’t want another crack, assuming there are a local. If Labor runs a local and the Libs a blow in (like Campbell) then that will help with the campaign.
Dutton will have a hard time convincing Aston voters the Liberals have changed.
He called the Royal Commission a witch hunt.
Porter and Tudge have gone but –
Morrison, Stuart Robert and Marise Payne are still in Parliament.
Outcome? Far too soon to say.
So who would be a Teal candidate, should one stand in Aston? Any local heroes or celebrities of note?
Also, I don’t think Asten for Aston will fly. Being Tudge’s CoS during Robodebt has him behind the 8 ball from the get go.
Also another reason I think the Liberal vote will hold up in Aston was that the Liberals were working on the Religious Discrimination Bill and Tudge and Robert on advantaging religious teaching in the Education curriculum before they were tossed out of government last year. Hence, the Fundies wanting to keep the seat in Liberal hand’s.
Boerwar at noon, Mostly Interested at 8.20 am
Yes, too soon to tell. This is what Dr Bonham said, Labor “not very likely” to win, which means a Labor win is possible.
Note the 7.3% swing against Tudge was with Labor spending few resources:
https://prestoninstitute.wordpress.com/2022/05/23/laborastoncampaign/
The swing against Tudge was personal among women and it was reinforced by a Prime Minister who was repellent to women. It would be surprising if there was a further swing in the retirement villages which are Rowville and Wantirna.
This discussion is reminding me quite a bit of the pre-election talk in both the state and federal elections that there “wouldn’t be much room” for the Liberal vote to fall further in Eastern Melbourne. Cue 2022 and the accelerated struggles of the Liberals in this region.
Yes, this is territory that one would traditionally think of as Liberal-leaning but the government is running even higher than in 2022 and I see no sign that the Liberals are arresting their decline in these areas under Peter Dutton.
Aston is no more religious than the average Victorian electorate. No religion scored 41% on the census in the electorate which is higher than the 38%. Then those who are religious are generally equally weighted with the rest of the state. It is not the Melbourne counterpart to the Sydney Hills for example that some here seem to suggest. There are certainly patches that are more heavily populated with people of certain faiths but on the whole the electorate looks much like the rest of Melbourne in terms of religion.
The electorate is more heavily Chinese than elsewhere in the state but is typical of the eastern areas of Melbourne. But it is not Chisholm levels.
An estimated TPP figure for the senate was only just over 50% for the Liberals, which suggest that Tudge was a net positive on the ticket for the Liberals at the last election. The local member effect probably outweighed any backlash do to his rooting around.
“Courier Mail takes the low road
The press watchdog has taken 15 months to publish an adverse finding against a Courier Mail article which argued that Indigenous parents “routinely abandon their responsibilities”. The Australian Press Council said the masthead unfairly omitted entrenched Indigenous disadvantage as a reason for high youth crime rates. “The publication failed to take reasonable steps to avoid substantial offence and prejudice.”
Courier columnist Mike O’Connor said “while they march up and down the street waving flags, their children are stealing cars, robbing houses and being hauled off to the watch-house.”
The masthead had to publish the adjudication in the paper and online but the offensive commentary remains on the website despite breaching two of the general principles of the APC.
“Although the Council notes the very substantial public interest in reporting and commenting on the incarceration rates of Indigenous youths and the potential causes, the public interest did not justify the level of offence and prejudice,” the council said.
The publication caused further offence by republishing an infamous Bill Leak cartoon which the council said “is used to further perpetuate a racist stereotype that Indigenous parents, and in particular Indigenous fathers, are potentially drunkards and poor parents.””
O’Connor, Leak, The Courier… The Murdoch Trilogy of infamy!
Apologies for misplaced post…. 🙂
Dolittle – True that the ALP spent very little on the fight there in 2022. But also the Liberals did not see it as under threat and also did not spend much on the seat (although they spent more than the ALP).
The Liberals blew a massive amount of their budget in the state trying to save Kooyong – Ryan spent $2 million and the Liberals easily matched that – making it the single most expensive seat battle in Australian political history.
The coffers of the Liberal Party in Victoria are fairly bare at the moment after the state election last year as well.
MelbourneMammoth, your description of Aston as “one of the whitest” seats in Melbourne doesn’t apply to the area where I live (Wantirna). The Chinese population is large and growing, and the Indians (or Subcontinentals in general) are catching up.
Or maybe it just appears that way. I’m not going by official statistics, just the way it appears to me, having lived in the area for twenty-odd years.
In any case, Labor won’t win the seat. At a federal level, governments just never win seats from oppositions at by-elections, no matter how favourable the conditions.
Dustboot says @10.14am
The legacy Tudge leaves behind includes;
– Robodebt (plus the subsequent tax payer funded settlement).
– Engaging in ‘criminal’ conduct with the detention of an asylum seeker
– Staffer and adultery scandal (plus subsequent tax payer funded settlement).
– He was also education minister for a time. Continued receiving a cabinet minister’s salary, but was also on leave. (According to Stuart Robert anyway).
Madhouse replies @ 10.20am
It kills me how people cannot think about the candidate they are voting for and/or unwilling to remove the rust. Horrible, incompetent people do not deserve to represent us, no matter which party they are in.
………………………………………………………………………………………
Perhaps those who voted for Tudge have learnt their lesson and have been embarrassed to know they voted for an adulterer who cost them and us taxpayers $600,000. A fact not realised till after the election. Maybe some voters took Tudge’s word for it when he said although he and Rachelle Miller were intimate four times, they never had sex.( Tudge’s wife obviously didn’t take his word for it. )
With Labor only needing a 2.8% swing to win the seat and riding high in the polls at present, my feeling, and that of some other bludgers, is that Labor can win it.
Watching Closely@11.57
Dutton will have a hard time convincing Aston voters the Liberals have changed.
He called the Royal Commission a witch hunt.
Porter and Tudge have gone but –
Morrison, Stuart Robert and Marise Payne are still in Parliament.
………………………………………………………………………………………..
I’ve checked with Nostradamus and its been predicted that none of those last three mentioned will still be in parliament in 2025.
Really? I would have thought Nostradamus would have predicted they would be senior ministers in a Dutton government.
If Nostradamus really said that, the LNP are really up Schitt’s Creek
The reason so many individuals who could be described as salt of the earth* keep getting elected to Parliament is that voters are presented with a dilemma. They want a good representative for their electorate, but they want even more to have the government of their choice. So, usually, they will hold their nose and vote for their party’s chosen candidate. It’s a major drawback of the party system.
* White, square, and bad for your health
Alan Tudge is a good copycat.
He paraphrased Bill Clinton’s denial of his affair with Monica Lewinsky when Clinton said “I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky ” and Tudge turned it into ‘we were intimate four times but we never had sex’ when talking about his affair with Rachelle Miller.
As it cost taxpayers $600,000 why didn’t the inquiry ask him exactly what he did in these intimate acts.
Intimate 4 times, but didn’t have sex! Erectile dysfunction is treatable. It is nothing to be ashamed of. It is a function of age.
PS: i don’t believe you.
Aston is no “whiter” than the rest of Victoria. It has about the same amount of people with Australian and English heritage as the rest of the state. It is possibly a little “whiter” than much of Melbourne as the regional areas are much “whiter” than Melbourne and throws the averages off a little.
Aston By-Election 2023
ASTON (VIC, LIB 2.81%)
By-election date TBA probably April/May
Cause of by-election: Resignation of Alan Tudge
Outlook: Likely Liberal retain (perhaps not easily)
Yesterday what looks like a quiet electoral year was enlivened just a little by the news that there will be a by-election for the Liberal seat of Aston following the resignation of Alan Tudge, MP since 2010 and Minister between 2016-2022. Tudge was once a minor star of the Coalition government but his rise was tarnished from late 2020 onwards by an extramarital affair with staffer Rachelle Miller, who accused him of harassment and abuse. Tudge denies the accusations, which led to a substantial payout. In recent weeks Tudge has been under the spotlight for his actions surrounding the illegal, disgraceful and barbaric “robodebt” scheme as Social Services Minister in 2016-7. Tudge has cited family and health reasons in his resignation, having flagged his intentions with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton in early January after his father passed away.
This thread will follow the by-election campaign though I will lose interest in it and stop updating the thread if Labor doesn’t run and there is no other serious challenger.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/02/aston-by-election-2023.html
Blocks of land purchased 30 odd years ago for $50,000- with large, double story houses built thereon (by the builders who purchased the blocks on Term Contracts)
On that history, 50 to 60 year old empty nesters who are or were in reasonably paying employment (including “tradies”) and now nearing retirement
Amenities and public transport are patchy – although I imagine the trees planted are now grown so not as desolate as it appeared when the sub division businesses started the conversion from broad acres to allotments
The major shopping complex is Knox which is also the bus terminal
Religion?
Have a sister in law and her husband living in Wantirna and they are there
Including particularly their extended family also residing in Wantirna
God botherer’s, anti vax etc etc
That was the end of family gatherings with the wider “family”
Rusted on Liberal
Will be a hard ask for Labor
One of the few remaining safe Liberal seats, noting the adjoining Deakin is down to 2/300 votes, so a further 150 changing their vote
If the Liberals lose Aston they will be hard pressed to win any seat in metro Melbourne (noting the religious infiltration toward the Dandenongs)
I love people are talking in cliché about Aston. The Census data shows that yes there is 3,000 Pentecostals there in Aston but there are more Buddhists (6,900), more Hindus (5,700) and almost as many Muslims (2,600) in the seat.
Equally, a third of the seat did not live there 5 years ago so they weren’t lucky enough to have bought property 40 years ago there. Only 23% of households rent which is fairly low but that is probably a result of most dwellings being free standing.
It is not as “White” as the pure snow that some are suggesting either. 36% of people were born overseas which is higher than the state (35%).
As for vaccination rates, City of Knox was about middle of the pack for 3 doses of COVID-19 Vaccine (37th worse out of 81) but fairly bad for fourth dose (18th worse out of 81). The hipsters in Darebin were the real laggards.
In any case, Labor won’t win the seat. At a federal level, governments just never win seats from oppositions at by-elections, no matter how favourable the conditions.
The memory of Kevin Rudd way up high in the polls. Then only for the Labor party to lick it wounds, after the bye-election in Gippsland in 2008. Is strong evidence governments don’t take seats off the opposition in bye-elections.
The party was weary after the Gippsland experience and decided not to run a candidate later that year in the bye-election in Mayo. I remember hearing on the grapevine the decision was a mistake and Labor would have won if it had ran. Who knows?
The polling we’ve had since the last election suggests Labor has improved its vote by the same or a greater margin than required to win Aston, the question is how much the stench around Tudge depressed the Liberal vote in Aston at the last election?
If you have a look at Aston and the seats immediately surrounding it at the last election there was an average swing to Labor of 4.0% (in Bruce there was a swing towards the Liberals) – this perhaps indicates that the margin in Aston to the Liberals would be closer to 5-6% if you take out the Tudge factor – while still gettable for Labor you would expect all other things being equal that the Liberals should hold it by a similar margin to what they have now.
Aston -7.3%
Deakin -4.5%
Casey -3.1%
Bruce +0.7%
Hotham -3.1%
Chisholm -6.9%
The ABS allows you to search for statistics based on Commonwealth and State electoral divisions – you can have a look at the profile for Aston at the 2021 census below:
https://www.abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2021/CED201
It looks very much middle of the road on most indicators, the only thing that stood out to me is that 14.1% of respondents nominated Chinese ancestry compared to 6.6% for Victoria as a whole.
The entire history of Australian by-elections is against Labor winning in Aston. You would need to have an entirely dominant new Government (60% two party preferred) and a skinnier margin than in Aston.
Whichever way you cast the pearls in the seat, the Liberals must consider themselves as favourites. And since Dutton needs to boost his cred, Dutton can’t afford not to campaign in Aston, in Victoria. There are wins on offer for everyone except Dutton, who can’t afford to lose.
Sometimes parties run despite the fact that they might not win. If parties only ran when they are a chance to win, the Greens would only run in a dozen seats or so….
There are reason why Labor might want to run, despite their chance of winning being low:
– It will force the Liberals to expend funds on a by-election when the coffers are bare in a state where they just handed their rear on a platter in both the federal and state elections.
– A close result will force the Liberals to do the same in Aston at the next General Election.
– The narrative in a tradition Labor vs Liberal by-election might be easier to deal with than an unconventional Liberal vs “teal” (or Liberal vs Green). Plus an accidental “Teal” or Green win would put the narrative on Climate Change once more when there are other issues the ALP would like to promote more at the current moment.
-If it was to be a Teal vs Liberal contest and the Teal gets belted, it will go some way to reducing the fear of the “Teal” movement in Liberal circles and affect the way the Liberals approach issues such as the Voice and Climate Change.
– The Liberals winning a traditional contest will boost Dutton’s standing within the Liberal party which ultimately might benefit the ALP as Dutton is simply no PM material in the majority of the publics view.
– The kiddlets of the ALP are still on a high and willing to do a bit campaigning after the last two elections, so letter boxing and booth manning is no going to be issue.
– Finally, they might just lucky as the Liberal candidate might have some unknown skeleton in the closest or the Liberal pre-selection turns nasty in a battle between the right wing and the hard right wing.
Even if the odds of winning are only 20%, with only a majority of 2, it is well worth the risk of losing and taking a weeks worth of bad publicity which will soon be taken over by the budget anyway.
And just on my personal knowledge of the history of Rowville and surrounds (so a limited snapshot)
Cheap land, big houses and big families (and big cars)
Those big families, now into their 30’s married young and into their “Church”
They in turn have large families, the eldest children around 10 years of age
The non employed parent is now entering the workforce on a part time basis
They rent – and seek to rent in proximity to their “Church”, requiring 4 bedroom accommodation because of the number of children
Their circumstances dictate they have had, and still do not have, any capacity to purchase a home (by saving a deposit)
But they drive their big vehicles – a status symbol at the school gate
What they are finding is that rents are being significantly increased on them offsetting the second income
So they are making no progress
And they keep having children!!
Their options are to meet the rental increase, seek a smaller residence or shift further from where they are now – so into the Dandenong Ranges
Mind you, their “Church” prospers – look at their land and buildings
From tax free donations
They are “God’s way” so anti vaccination etc etc etc
And isolated accordingly
They will inherit one day, but that inheritance will be divided among all their siblings (and the “Church”)
mj at 7.38 am and Historyintime at 8.14 am
Labor has not held Aston since 1987. Figures at:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_results_for_the_Division_of_Aston
Note that Tudge’s primary vote dropped by 11.6% in 2022, to 43%.
With a further 2% drop in the Lib primary vote, Labor would get close.
Here we go again – Only 43% of the electorate is Christian according to the census. I would suggest your personal experience is not reflective of the overall electorate.
If Labor don’t win Aston, it loses nothing as governments (usually) don’t win by-elections against the opposition.
If Labor does win Aston, it gains an extra seat which could come in handy over the next two years.
Turncoats aren’t confined to any particular party, nor is death, so having one up your sleeve is priceless.
But just think of the bragging rites that Labor can use against Dutton and his motley crew.
It will be the start of a campaign to ask how long can Dutton last?
Who is going to make a move on him? and when?
It will destabilise the Coalition right up to the next election.
I’ve done a quick poll on bludgers predictions as to who may win Aston and it appears to be 50/50.
Pretty good odds considering Labor has nothing to lose and everything to gain, whereas the Coalition has nothing to gain but everything to lose.
While Labor went under the radar at the last election, its now flying higher in the polls and it can afford to hit the coalition hard with the revelations of the RoboDebt Royal Commission and Tudge’s sexual exploits costing taxpayers $600,000, not to mention Scomo’s multi ministries, all not known before the last election.
With a swing of only 2.8% needed, now is the time to strike.
Who will labour likely run as a candidate?
What can the people of Aston expect in the way of election promises?
If the Lying Reactionaries lose Aston we can safely say they really are cactus in Victoria. Labor should run and run hard.